Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Week 6 Picks--Midseason rivalries aren't as appealing this year

Oklahoma vs. Texas
Draper:
The Red River Shootout (yeah, I said it, big whoop, wanna fight about it) is actually semi-relevant this year after Texas disappearing. That being said, these aren't the polished McCoy to Shipley from 2006-2009. While the younger brothers are improving, they aren't good enough to take down the Sooners. Jones will have a field day with Broyles and Stills, and the Stoops defense will knock the Longhorns off their undefeated high horse with relative ease. OU: 48--UT: 20
Auer: Texas has seemingly returned to form after an abysmal 2010 season, and here they sit at 4-0. The problem is Texas really hasn't beaten anyone. The Sooners on the other hand have a key win at Florida State, and look to continue on their collision course for a date with the Crimson Tide. This one really shouldn't be close, as much as I want UT to make it so. OU: 35--UT: 10
Hoying:
In so many other years, 4-0 Oklahoma vs. 4-0 Texas would serve as a mid-season determinant of the Big XII South champion. Not so this year; there are five (Five!) undefeated Big X(II) teams heading into this week, and all of them will play each other before the season is done. This is the first (second if you count KSU-Baylor of what should be an excellent set of Big X(II) showdowns. Look for Oklahoma's steadier offense, led by veteran QB Landry Jones, to have a big day and the better-than-advertised OU defense to cause confusion for the 2-headed Texas QB monster. OU: 34 -- UT: 16
Schweinfurth: Undefeated Texas and undefeated Oklahoma? One would think this game would be close but you have to go with McCoy and Shipley. Wait, it's not Colt and Jordan? In all seriousness, Oklahoma is the better team. The Sooner D is down right nasty and will just be too much for both Texas QBs. OU: 42 -- UT: 17

Florida @ LSU
Draper: Sucks for Florida that they get the 2 best teams in the country back-to-back. Also, they have lost their QB (Brantley) to dismemberment at the hands of the Saban defense. This could have been a good matchup, but the Gators haven't turned the corner yet. LSU is rolling and should make easy work of the Gators without a QB. Demps and Rainey are good, but no passing threat will be a killer. Death Valley will be insane and will send more Gators to the doctor. UF: 6--LSU: 24
Auer: Not much chance for Will Muschamp's Gators as they head to Death Valley without a QB. LSU is really good, but not quite as good as Alabama, but still won't have a problem with UF this week. UF: 10--LSU: 32
Hoying:
I still think Florida is shaping up to make some noise in the weak SEC East (and get hammered by 'Bama again), but LSU in Baton Rouge is too tall an order for the Gators, especially without their starting QB (we've seen what effect losing your only good QB can have). The LSU defense is slightly more forgiving than the Crimson Brick Wall, but Florida will be in no position to challenge it. UF: 13 -- LSU: 20
Schweinfurth: Will Muschamp has the Gators turning the corner and Jabba the Weiss has figured has been putting Demps and Rainey in positions to succeed. Unfortunately for Florida, LSU has one of the best secondaries in the nation. This should be an exciting game but Baton Rouge will prove to be too much for Florida. UF: 14 -- LSU: 31

Auburn @ Arkansas
Draper: Auburn has been living on borrowed time with 3 of their 4 wins coming in heart-stopping fashion. The little known secret is that they're not that good and have been super lucky. Give them credit for hanging around long enough to steal a win, but not happening in Fayetteville. Tyler Wilson and the Hogs dug a HUGE hole last week (thankfully it was against the choke artists at TAMU) but looked great and under poise coming back. Expect another huge passing day from Wilson to lead the Hogs to victory and send the Tigers back to reality. Aub: 17--Ark: 38
Auer: Auburn is officially about to become the schizophrenic team of 2011. They'll upset highly ranked USC one week, then turn around and lose to Clemson, and then struggle against the likes of Utah State. The Tigers will surely come back to earth after last week's upset of the Gamecocks. Aub: 21--Ark: 45
Hoying:
In the last two weeks, Arkansas got hammered by the best team in the country and looked beatable against Texas A&M before a well-played comeback. This team is itching to make a statement and dismantle an opponent, and look who's coming to Fayetteville. The Auburn Tigers have derailed two trendy SEC picks (South Carolina and Mississippi State) and their only loss is to a quality Clemson team, but anyone who's been watching this team has to be scratching their head wondering how long Gene Chizik's brain farts can power this team to victory. Here's a fun stat to close with: the SEC-worst Auburn defense gives up 233 passing yards per game. Arkansas's QB Tyler Wilson led the SEC's best offense to 510 passing yards last week against Texas A&M. Uh-oh. Aub: 20 -- Ark: 56
Schweinfurth: Auburn continues to live on the edge and keeps gutting out close wins. The last time the Tigers faced a top offense (in Clemson), the Tiger defense was exposed. Auburn can score and I don't buy into the Razorback defense. Auburn's magic touch has to run out sometime and, even though I say it every week, it runs out this week in a not so close shootout. Aub: 28 -- Ark: 42

Ohio State @ Nebraska
Draper: We just can't catch a break (mostly due to stupid players). No Boom and No Posey most likely means no help on offense. The return of Mike Adams (and possibly even Solomon Thomas) will help but the biggest boon to the offense will be Nebraska. Their defense is well behind MSU at the line of scrimmage. This bodes well for the OSU running game. Hall will run for a solid 100 yards, but the flip side is Nebraska's O is better than MSU. One aspect that has given the Bullets fits is a running QB...uh oh. The Bullets play tough and the offense looks more competent, but on the road is gonna be trouble for the young QB. I think it will be much closer than the experts think. I have to do it (for the first real time), but I don't have to like it. OSU: 20--Neb: 27
Auer: Struggling to find the positives in this one. The Buckeyes have to click eventually, don't they? The defense has to score eventually, right? I have literally no rhyme or reason to do this, but I have a feeling that Nebraska *might* be the type of team that chokes under pressure. The Buckeyes are going to be lucky to have anything to play for by the time November rolls around, so they might as well throw whatever they've got out Saturday night in Lincoln and maybe Lady Luck will be on the side of Fickell's team. OSU: 13--Neb: 10
Hoying:
The Buckeyes are bad, m'kay? The team has no quarterback, its best running back and wide receiver have slipped through its grasp indefinitely, and key players are being lost left and right to serious injuries (Verlon Reed, Philly Brown, Nate Williams). The Bucks are teetering on the edge of collapse as evidenced by RB Carlos Hyde's comments about the coaching staff. Now for the good news. Aside from a few problems with the secondary (looking at you, #7), the defense still works, which is remarkable considering how long they've had to stay on the field. Also, Nebraska's defense isn't going to be anywhere near as tough as MSU's to crack. However, nighttime in Lincoln is going to be very unforgiving to this young team. Even though this one is winnable, the young Bucks don't quite have the poise to get it done. OSU: 16 -- Neb: 17
Schweinfurth: This game is will be all about defense. Ohio State has a walrus calling plays and Taylor Martinez makes my throwing motion look good. If one offense has an advantage, it has to be the 'Husker's pseudo-option attack. One gets the feeling that, if Nebraska scores early, the Silver Bullets may revolt against the offense. The Buckeyes are on tilt and Bo Pelini is looking to make a statement. This one is close but Nebraska moves the ball thanks to a few missed tackles. Martinez throws a few picks (including a pick 6) but the Bucks can't take advantage of the field position. OSU: 10 -- Neb: 17

Upset Specials
Draper: Mizzou over Kansas State
Auer:
Ohio State over Nebraska
Hoying:
Northwestern over Michigan (I don't know, I don't see a lot of upsets this week)
Schweinfurth: Maryland over Georgia Tech (I'm with Hoying on this one. Not many upset chances)

5 Thoughts from the Week that Was

1) Still we have questionable officiating...with no explanation or consequences.

Last weeks problem was much more crucial with a missed PAT call but the fact remains that too many calls are missed or not addressed. As the time ticked down in a critical matchup between South Carolina and Auburn, the Gamecocks get a first down with 2 seconds left; (barely) enough time to spike the ball and get a last second field goal off to tie the game. Alas, the clock ran out and when Spurrier asked for the referee to review it, he refused and called the game. One argument was that there was only 1 second left and that means there was not enough time to spike the ball with time remaining. If that's the case, then come out at confirm it! As of now, the South Carolina faithful are left holding the bag with questions abounding and Gene Chizik (the current edition of Les Miles-'winning games despite poor coaching). This is yet another incident of poor referee-ing with no consequences or explanations. It's time to hold these officials to a higher standard.

2) Media money drives opinion and, therefore, polls

OSU has a near miss against Toledo and everyone destroys the B1G. South Carolina has a near miss against Navy (arguably closer than OSU/Toledo) and no one mentions it rather than another SEC win. Give credit to Navy who is always a tough matchup. Unfortunately, you'll never know because the $EC drives E$PiN. The polls are clearly driven by the highlights shown on ESPiN and those highlights are skewed in favor of those who pay the bills. The top SEC teams are that good, but the rest are the same as every other conference also-ran.

3) Undefeated doesn't always mean the best.

Quick, one conference has 5 undefeated teams, which is it? No, not the be-all, end-all SEC, but the Big 12. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. This is more than double any other conference, but hold the phone folks. The Oklahoma teams each have quality wins (FSU and TAMU) but the other 3 played no one but the Little Sisters of the Poor (yeah, I said it). KSU under Snyder is known to play no one but creampuffs (yes, this year he played Miami but whopee...). Texas played UCLA....yawn. I didn't even know Texas Tech has played a game since Michael Crabtree left. Good for them being undefeated, but let's wait until they play quality opponents to anoint the conference. The Oklahoma teams are legit, but I don't think the others will get more than 8 wins a piece.


4) Pains me to say this, but the National Championship (as of now) should be a
rematch of Alabama vs. LSU.

I said this before and I'll say it again: everyone sucks. This year has been extremely painful to watch. That being said, Bama and LSU are (as of now) the clear best teams in the country. Yes, OU is good, but they'll most likely drop one like they always do. Ok St offense can't keep the questionable defense going undefeated. Wisconsin is very tough but who knows if they can hold up against a defense on the road. Boise is Boise and will most likely go undefeated but no one cares. Stanford and Oregon play in a tossup but the Cardinal have an easy schedule and the Ducks already lost to LSU. The SEC powers are very very good and I really think there is a possibility that they rematch in the Title Game. The most likely contender is Wisconsin in my opinion due to schedule and what I've seen. I hate the SEC, but those 2 teams have the best resumes and talent that I've seen thus far.

5) Fair or foul, Robert Griffin III is most likely out of the Heisman race already.

Remember how I said that it's very hard to break into the Heisman race without preseason hype; it's nearly impossible when you're on a team that's out of the race (translation: has a loss). This is, of course, not fair at all, but it's the world we live in. RG3 has eye-popping stats with slightly fewer TDs than incompletions, 1 interception, and 5 TD passes a piece in 3 games, but no one will remember him if he doesn't win. Small market and non-contender never really have a chance. Many people are giving him lip-service in the media, but I don't buy that they actually believe it. I do think he is a legit candidate, but when the voters turn in their ballots, I feel they will be skewed by their preconceptions and drop him down below the NFL #1 pick (Luck), the golden boy (Kellen Moore), the best player on the best team (Trent Richardson), the hot transfer (Russell Wilson), and the best QB the number 1 team (Jones). RG3 needs to go crazy EVERY game from here on out and he absolutely HAS to beat OU with some crazy stats to even get back in the legit discussion. Pay attention to this kid because he's really good (and he'll get his compensation next year in the NFL), but the preconceptions kill his realistic chance in my opinion.

Sunday, October 02, 2011

Grading the Bucks--Week 5: Michigan State.....GROSS

Offense: F
What a pathetic display! I thought this was Ohio State but apparently not. Under 100 yards of offense until late in the 4th and shutout until 10 seconds left....putrid. It's painfully clear that we do not have a quarterback on the roster. I still support Bauserman but he's the lesser of two evils. Miller has happy feet and is afraid to hit the hole. The running lanes open but he dances rather than just running. His passing has much to be desired as well. JB shows that he can throw...sometimes, but he can also overthrow the receivers by 20 yards. The running game took a giant step back and the best O-line I've seen obviously was a fluke. Jordan Hall failed to step up to the plate for his audition and the offensive line was pathetic after 2 solid weeks of above average play. Maybe the suspended players will make a difference but it's hard to envision fixing all of these holes. Give some credit to MSU's D-line but the guard play and QB play at OSU is inexcusable. Who starts at QB next week? God only knows. Personally, I'd start JB on the road, but I'm not comfortable with it. I expect Fickell to go with Miller, but there is no good answer.

Defense: A- (Side grade--Travis Howard: F-----)
How can you fail to gain more than 100 yards until the 4th and still have a (legit) chance to win in the waning seconds? Have a defense that plays sound and bends but doesn't break. While the offense was throwing up on the field, the defense never seemed to get a break. Yet, they continued to run out there and shut down the senior QB. The return of Nate Williams from injury and Solomon Thomas from suspension to join John Simon and Jonathan Hankins will make the front four very very scary. The run defense was stout but the secondary had some holes. The hole is named Travis Howard. BJ Cunningham (the leading receiver in MSU history) absolutely torched the Buckeyes because Howard was burnt toast on every play. Yes, Cunningham is good, but no adjustments to help Howard (or simply pull him) is just dumb. OSU defense is certainly not the reason for the loss, but I've seen that opposing teams will learn to pick on the weak link. Look for number 7 on the D to be continually beat (just think, some booster actually paid him extra benefits!!).

Special Teams: B-
Nothing special here, but the punting was not as good this week. Buchanan was asked to do a lot, but he wasn't a sharp as usual. Returns and coverage were fine, but the punting has been above average in the last few weeks. Simply average this week. With all the punts, you don't expect perfection but I don't think the net average was as good as the past few weeks. Passable but nothing to wow me.

Coaching: D

Sorry Luke, you never had a chance. Lost in the talk of Fickell is the fact that he was not allowed to hire his own staff. His defensive staff is just fine and the addition of Mike Vrabel is very good, but the offensive coaching staff is just awful. Jim Bollman (the OC) has been terrible since he began coaching and he has arguably regressed. OSU hasn't learned about simple plays to relax your QB like screens and quick slants (and this has been true since I arrived at OSU). Every play is a dave block run or a deep pattern down field. Without simply underneath, slant, or intermediate routes, the QBs cannot get into a rhythm and make the defense respect any semblance of a passing game. Also, while the first half showed an absolute failure by the offense, the second half showed that no one knows how to adjust as we just got more failure. Nothing is changing. The coaches seem to be beating their heads against the wall expecting to have the wall to apologize. If it doesn't work with your personnel, you must adjust. Fickell is a great guy and probably a great coach. He has coached up the defense to a high level without the top level talent, but there is just no hope for him if he gets no help from the offensive coaching staff. It's pretty much a done deal that Gene Smith is targeting Urban Meyer right now. Just think that every weekend, Chris Spielman calls games with Urban Meyer. Wouldn't be surprised if he's dropping hints during commercials. Nothing against Luke, but the situation pretty much screwed whomever got the interim job.

My Gut-Reaction Top 10 10/1/11

The wheat is quickly separating from the chaff. It's tough to even find 10 teams to fill this out.

1) Bama--Top to bottom most efficient team with the best D in the country. Going into the Swamp is no easy task, and they made it look easy.

2) LSU--Good wins, but the D isn't as solid as Bama. Also, the tide wins (Ark home and at UF road) are better than LSU (Oregon neutral and WVU road). Not to mention the huge coaching advantage in Tuscaloosa.

3) Oklahoma
--Big win at FSU and solid in all other games (against the scrubs). Oh, Mizzou win wasn't bad either but execution is slightly lower than the SEC teams above.

4) Wisconsin
--Totally solid play but haven't seen the same competition as above. Nebraska was in Camp Randall (and let's be honest, their D is terrible) but they looked great.

5) Oklahoma State
--D is questionable but I believe they have the best offense in the country. The huge comeback in Kyle Field will be dismissed because of the TAMU collapse this week as well, but you could contribute some of this week's failure to the Pokes crushing their spirit. Blackmon and Weeden are just that good.

6) Clemson
--The body of work is spectacular. FSU was banged up....but they beat them in Death Valley. They smashed VT in their own backyard (but we have no clue if their any good). Give credit to Dabo and crew because they just keep winning.

7) Stanford
--Yeah, this ranking is because of Luck and undefeated-ness but they have looked just fine. I know they haven't played anyone but they've taken care of business with relative ease. Only tough games are home v. Oregon and @ (?) ND.

8) Boise State
--Way low for most people but they play no one and will play no one. Nothing they can do about it....it's just a fact of life. I'll give them credit, but they can't move up without teams above faltering. Not fair? Maybe. But True.

9) Oregon
--After those turnovers against LSU, they have quietly righted the ship. Look out for the Ducks who are quietly smashing everyone on the West Coast. Big time showdown @ Stanford later this year.

10) ...I don't know...Nebraska? Florida? who cares...
--I don't see anyone else. Nebraska got smoked, but it was in Camp Randall where almost everyone loses. Florida got smoked but Bama is really good. Who else? Arkansas maybe? Everyone sucks...that's it.

1091824098) Buckeye offense
--we suck...