Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Week 3 Picks--Another snoozefest

Stats
1. Schweinfurth  7-1   (2-0 upset)
2. Draper             6-2   (1-1 upset--because PSU missed 4 FGs and a PAT!!!)
3. Hoying            5-3   (1-1 upset)
4. Auer                3-1   (0-1 upset really 1-0 because Tyler stole mine and deleted it :-))

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper:  This is the year.  It's time for the Spartans to finally take the B1G.  OSU can't so this is their only shot.  I know this isn't a B1G game, but MSU is a really good team.  They only need to NOT remember that they're Sparty.  Notre Dame had an explosive win in week 1 and were able to pull off a tough win behind 10 year old Tommy Rees against upset minded Purdue, but the Spartans are a different animal.  Le'veon Bell and William Gholston make mincemeat of the Irish in East Lansing and win by 2 scores. ND: 16--MSU: 27
Auer: Brian Kelly is a sack of crap and karma will help make sure the Golden Domers go down in flames in this great rivalry. 9 of the last 12 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits, and this  will be no different. The old addage: "when you've got two quarterbacks, you don't have one" will hold true this day as Kelly will flip-flop again and put in Tommy Rees to seal the deal for the Spartans. ND: 19--MSU: 23
Hoying: Back to reality for the Fighting Irish.  In all fairness, the Purdue team Notre Dame scraped by last week isn't as deserving of the initials P U as some other recent Boilermaker squads, but a true road game against an elite opponent is more than the Irish can handle.  The Spartan defense is probably (almost definitely) the best the B1G has to offer, spelling doom for whoever ends up taking the snaps for the golden domers.  Sparty moves into the national title discussion with a big win.  ND: 13--MSU: 28
Schweinfurth: This is a big test for the Irish and for Sparty.  Michigan St. has plenty of questions in the passing game and Le'Veon Bell can only take the Spartan offense so far.  Michigan State's defense is probably the best Notre Dame will see until USC and will be an excellent test for Brain Kelly's offense.  I expect Sparty to come out and blow the Irish off the ball and set the tone for an impressive performance.  This one will not need a fake field goal to win it.  ND: 17--MSU 28

USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: While this is a matchup of ranked teams, I expect a monster blowout.  The Trojans were said to be a little shaky on the road vs. Syracuse, but the weather had a lot to do with that.  Stanford has no reason to be ranked as Andrew Luck is in the NFL.  It's not in the friendly confines of the Coliseum, but the Torjans are simply better.  SC took a 3OT loss to Andrew Luck last year and look forward to serving their revenge on Saturday. USC: 51--Stanford: 13
Auer: Classless Lane Kiffin will be looking for his Trojan squad to make a statement against the annual thorn-in-the-side Cardinal. USC struggled a bit to shutdown Syracuse, but Matt Barkley was once again stellar and will continue to pile up votes for the Heisman Trophy. By the way, Andrew Luck plays on Sundays now... sorry Stanford. USC: 68--Stanford: 23
Hoying: Which Stanford is going to show up?  The one that squeaked by San Jose State or the one that thrashed Duke?  USC's defense has been a little suspect for a title contender, but this only becomes a problem if your opponent has a viable weapon.  With no Andrew Luck slinging the football and no John (Jim?  John?  Jim.)  Jim Harbaugh calling the plays, this figures to be an easy win for Lane and Co.  USC: 38--Stanford: 10 
Schweinfurth: The Cardinal is ranked, but without Andrew Luck this just isn't the same team.  USC has too much fire power on offense and can be down right explosive at times.  I expect a lot of Barkley to Woods with a little bit of Silas Redd as the cherry on top.  This one isn't close.  USC: 45--Stan: 10

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: I love what I've seen so far from the Vols. The Gators looked pretty good in the 2nd half of the TAMU game but the Aggies had a new QB in his first start.  Tyler Bray has looked pretty good.  Going with the Orange Power in Knoxville.  Derek Dooley tries to ruin the game, but the Gators turn the ball over at the end sealing a statement win for Mike Stewart and the Vols. UF: 17--UT: 23
Auer: I had no idea Tennessee was even relevant again until I saw that ESPN College GameDay was going to Knoxville. Florida has two wins that have warmed them up well for this match-up, and should mean an easy win. This is UT's first real test, and I'm calling for the upset here as the Gators will be caught with a hangover after last week's big win in College Station. UF: 24--UT: 26
Hoying: The Gators may be better than I previously gave them credit for.  Winning at Kyle Field is not an easy task, and Florida will not be intimidated by the atmosphere in Knoxville.  Yet, the Gators still have not found a passing game, and Tennessee QB Tyler Bray will be all over an untested Gator secondary.  One....two three four five.  Man, them Gators gonna take a dive.  UF: 13--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: Talent wise, I think the Gators are just the better team and it will show.  I get the feeling that the Gators will use the big second half at TAMU last week and build off of it.  Tennessee will hang with Florida but this will be a fairly low scoring game.  UF: 17--UT: 10

California Golden Bears @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper:  This could (and should) get ugly.  UCF was a decent opponent, but Cal (while in a BCS conference) is a punching bag.  I hope the coaches listen to me and stopping running Braxton so much.  The return of Jordan Hall happens at the perfect time with Hyde banged up.  This is a game the B1G absolutely needs and should get easily.  Cal will get a score or two, but the offense absolutely needs to go nuts.  Urban's boys roll.  Cal: 13--OSU: 51
Auer: This preview will be just as exciting as the game... not worth your $75. The Buckeyes will annihilate there ONLY BCS opponent in the "pre-season". Contrary to my fellow posters: no amount of points by the Buckeyes will help the Big Ten's image, nor discounting that the Bucks lost to the only good Pac 10 opponent they played in the last 30 years, plus this team is so bad that we don't need to worry about being down to our 3rd RB. Cal: 13--OSU: 56
Hoying:  Just what the doctor ordered for the B1G: a home game against a bunch of hippies from a top conference.  This is the same Cal team that had trouble putting away Southern Utah last week.  The Silver Bullets looked slightly less than sharp against UCF, and the secondary will continue to struggle against a decent Cal attack, but good, sweet, crap, this offense should not be stopped.  Time to try a balanced offense and give Braxton a freaking break.  Fun fact: Ohio State hasn't lost at home to a team from the Pac-12 other than USC since 1982 (12 straight).  Cal: 20--OSU: 48
Schweinfurth: I have a few alarm bells going off with this one.  The Buckeyes are down to the bottom two running backs (assuming Jordan Hall is out again) and the defense has looked anything but dominating.  Add in that the B1G has had trouble with the Pac-12 this year and this game could be a little unsettling.  The good news is, Cal is not good.  Urban met with all the coaches Sunday and, hopefully, lit a fire under their seats.  I expect a much cleaner game with the Buckeyes finding a way to keep Braxton to under 15 rushes this week.  Keenan Allen will get a touchdown or two, but the Bucks keep rolling on.  Cal: 17-OSU: 63

Upset Special
Draper: Utah State over Wisconsin (everyone will have this one...)
Auer: UT over Florida
Hoying: North Carolina over Louisville
Schweinfurth: Utah over BYU
 

Monday, September 10, 2012

Grading the Bucks--Week 2 UCF

Many were frustrated with the 15 point win against the Golden Knights, but I would posit that UCF was the 4-5 toughest opponent on our schedule.  With that being said, there are still many issues that need to be worked out.  I think the game was better than most starry-eyed Buckeye fans thought, but this is not a world beater of a team.  It's a very good team, but not elite...yet.

Offense: B

The Knights made Braxton put on a show to beat them which is not what OSU needed.  I still firmly believe that the backs are being criminally under-utilized.  Braxton has learned the safe underneath throws, but he needs to be able to challenge the safeties deep to keep the secondary honest (the interception was just gross).  I haven't seen enough of that which will lead to some jumped routes against a better team.  Receiver execution was good enough.  The run-blocking (both the line and the second level blocking of the receivers) has been fantastic.  This appears to be our strength which is why I'm confused that we don't run a little more.  Finally, the dynamism of Miller's running ability is unquestioned...but he cannot tote the rock that often.  His 'ouchy' nature will catch up with us if we don't start to take it easy on him.

Defense: C+

Only 16 points given up, but we were fortunate.  Orhian Johnson played a spectacular game, and probably single-handedly cost UCF another 7-10 points.  The secondary still has plenty of issues and it just gets thinner with no Travis Howard (even though, I don't have much respect for his abilities).  I'm more concerned about the defensive line.  We have total studs on the line, but we're getting little to no pressure.  More concerning to me, was the lack of strong tackling that allowed the Golden Knights to develop a running game.  That can't happen if these lineman are as strong as advertised.  I gave a pass against Miami (OH) because of the game-plan.  UCF ran a more traditional offense and we needed turnovers to keep a 2 score lead--can't happen at THE Ohio State University vs. this UCF team.

Special Teams: A-

Good punting, good coverage, good kicking.  The blocked PAT pushes them to an A-.  Not too much to discuss but I liked what I saw.

Coaching: B-

I get what Urban is doing, but going for a 4th and 1 is a bit risky on your side of the field early on.  Yes, we're Ohio State.  Yes, we should get it. Yes, it's a culture change.  But if you go,  you better have a good playcall and you'd better get it.  UCF is not a scrub team (no matter what the media tells you).  I'm ok rolling the dice, but that went a little far.  The second time we went for it, I firmly believe Meyer did it as a message.  I'm convinced that, had we not converted, the entire backup offense would have been in next series.  Sending messages is one thing...against Miami (OH), but this is not a nobody team.  Also, if you go for it and you want to change the old culture, don't run a simple off tackle run.  Be creative!  Braxton's use is a major coaching issue as well.  Meyer said this week that he didn't want Miller running more than 12-13 times in a game (on a called play).  Miller has QB runs on 27 plays! This is way too high for a guy who has never played a complete season in his high-school or college career.  He is our best player, and you have to use him; just don't overuse him.  He won't be able to take those hits from MSU.

Overall: B

Many locals have crushed the Buckeyes for the 'tight' win.  I still think it was a nice hard-fought win, but there are things that need to be cleaned up.  The margin isn't the concern in my mind.  The concern was the overall level of execution.  I don't see any issues over the next 2 weeks so A performances are expected.  If we play like we did this week, we won't be Sparty.  Please, stop talking about these ridiculous national championship scenarios and focus on each game at a time.