Losing hurts. Depending on when the loss is and who gives
you the loss, it can hurt a lot more.
For the second year in a row, a great Ohio State team lost
to the exact wrong team at the exact wrong time. And for the second year in a
row, our hated rivals crapped the bed at a most inopportune moment, just to
spite us. And, for the second year in a row, it looks like the Buckeyes won’t
be going to Indianapolis to play for the Big Ten championship, barring an
unlikely Penn State loss to Rutgers next week Michigan State two weeks
from now.
Unfortunately, this makes it very likely that, for the
second year in a row, Ohio State will not be playing on New Year’s Eve for a
shot at the National Championship. And so, for the second year in a row, I’m
going to grasp at straws.
Fortunately, there’s a bit more substance on which to build
a foolish hope this year, thanks to Ohio State’s dynamite resume and a great
deal more chaos at the top.
What We Know about the Playoff Committee
1. The committee likes teams that win their conference (see #6
Stanford, #7 Ohio State in final 2015 rankings).
2. The committee likes teams that win conference championship
games (see #4 Ohio State, #5 Baylor in the final 2014 rankings).
3. The committee likes teams that play in conference championship
games (see #5 Iowa, #7 Ohio State in final 2015 rankings).
4. The committee is not afraid to put a team with a worse
record ahead of a team with a better record (see #6 Stanford, #7 Ohio State in
final 2015 rankings; #4 Texas A&M, #5 Washington 2 weeks ago).
5. The committee likes head-to-head winners (see #8 Texas
A&M, #9 Auburn last week).
#1, #2, #3 and #4 count against the Buckeyes. Barring
something strange, they aren’t going to appear in a conference championship
game, and they aren’t going to jump Alabama, but they could get jumped by a
2-loss conference champion. The question is, can #5 save them?
Remember to ignore this week’s Playoff Rankings, and every
set of rankings before the last one. In 2014, TCU fell from #3 to #6 after
drilling Kansas 55-3 and got shut out of the playoffs. Conference championships
matter A LOT.
SEC, ACC, and PAC (or, hope for a lot of losses)
In 2 years of playoffs, we’ve seen eight Power 5 conference
champions, and zero non-champions. There are five Power 5 champions (duh), so
at least one is getting left out of the playoffs every year. Obviously, being a
conference champion isn’t a prerequisite, otherwise Notre Dame would never have
a shot at the title. But in order to get in, the Buckeyes would need to pass at
least two champions.
SEC. Ohio State’s not going to pass SEC champion Alabama,
even if they lose to Auburn. What if Florida beats Alabama for the title? If Florida
loses to FSU or LSU, running their total to 3, they’re not going to the
playoff, Bama or no Bama. If they win out, they go to the playoff at 11-2, and
nobody bats an eye.
Could Alabama get in at 12-1 with a loss in the SEC title
game? Wins over USC, LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn would move the needle quite
a bit, and a loss to 10-3 Florida wouldn’t be devastating. At any rate, they
would get in over an Ohio State team that didn’t even appear in their
conference title game. Would the same be true if Alabama loses to Auburn and Florida and finishes 12-2? Hard to
say, but that’s asking for 2 improbable losses.
ACC. If Clemson loses to Wake Forest, Louisville goes to the
ACC title game. Ohio State will probably not get in over an ACC champion
Clemson or Louisville, even one with 2 losses. But nobody in the Coastal
division has fewer than 3 losses. A 3-loss ACC champion will probably not get
into the playoff, nor will a non-champ Louisville or Clemson (even if
Louisville is 11-1). Hope for a Coastal win.
Pac-12. 12-1 Washington gets in easily. 12-2 Pac-12 Champ
Washington gets in as well, even taking a bad loss to Arizona State. But if
Wazzu takes the Apple Cup and goes on to win the Pac-12, NO WAY do they get in.
Not with losses to Boise State and Eastern
Washington.
What if the South takes the Pac-12 title? A 2-loss Utah or
Colorado gets in without much question. A 3-loss USC getting in over 11-1 Ohio
State is a reeeeaaallll tough sell, but a win over Washington (maybe 2, or
maybe also a win over Washington State) would help, and the loss to Alabama is
excusable, even though it was an obliteration. A 4-loss USC with a loss to ND
can kiss the playoffs goodbye. This is probably the best outcome to hope for to
get the Pac-12 out of the way, but it’s a stretch.
Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Oklahoma
Big 12. Whet your appetite, Buckeye Nation. The Big 12 has
no conference championship game, so there’s no thirteenth game boost for the
playoff committee. The league will still produce a champion, however, and it
will likely be one of the two Ohio State will have to pass to make the playoff.
If Oklahoma State wins out, they’re the league’s “One True
Champion” and would like jump Ohio State, even with 2 losses. True, they have a
bad, bad loss to Central Michigan, but it was a fluky loss on a blown call. It’s
difficult to project how the committee would view this.
If Oklahoma State loses and West Virginia wins out, 11-1
West Virginia definitely gets in over
Ohio State. A championship, one acceptable loss, this one’s a no-brainer.
But what if Oklahoma wins out, beating Oklahoma State and
West Virginia? The Sooners would be sitting at 10-2, and with a pretty humbling
home loss to the Buckeyes. I don’t see a way for the committee to move a 2-loss
Oklahoma ahead of Ohio State.
Big Ten. Might as well make your peace with it now, Buckeye
Nation, for the 5th time in the last 6 years (6 of 7 if you count
the 2010 vacation), Ohio State is probably not going to be your Big Ten
Champions. But who will? Assuming Ohio State goes 11-1, Michigan is going to be
on the outside looking in as well, so get ready for the thriller of Penn State
versus…one of five teams (!) still alive in the West. Only Wisconsin or
Nebraska can get into the title game with 2 losses, and a 3 loss Big Ten
champion isn’t going to get into the playoff over Ohio State. A Penn State win
would be problematic for Ohio State, with only two losses, a conference
championship, and a head-to-head win, PSU would get in ahead of OSU. But what
if Wisconsin or Nebraska is your Big Ten champion? Now we’re back to the
Oklahoma scenario: more losses, including a head-to-head loss. Could the committee
put in a 2-loss Wisconsin or Nebraska in ahead of Ohio State? I don’t see it
happening.
So, in short, if OSU stays home on December 3, hope for (in
order of likelihood):
1. Wisconsin to win out and win the B1G
2. Oklahoma to win out and win the Big 12
3. The ACC Coastal winner to upset Clemson or Louisville
4. Washington State to win out and win the Pac 12
5. Something really unlikely to happen
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