Thursday, October 20, 2016

Week 8 - Whitewash...er...White-Out

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    17-8        (4-2 upset)
2) Hoying              20-10        (3-4 upset)
3) Draper               19-11        (2-5 upset)
4) Seeberg             17-13       (2-5 upset)

The Buckeyes are back on the road in another tough environment, but not against a tough opponent this time...

Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper:  The hits keep coming for Bama and they keep passing with flying colors.  A&M has been very good this year with some underrated performances against UCLA, Arkansas, and Tennessee (don't let the final score fool you, they gagged for it to be close).  But let's be real, Bama has one-upped the Aggies on almost every front...and it's in Tuscaloosa.  Sumlin almost certainly added some wrinkles, and Buckeye fans are well aware of the benefits of an extra week to prepare and add new stuff (see Wisconsin), but I just can't see A&M rolling into the heart of the SEC and taking down Goliath.  Trevor Knight will make some plays and Myles Garrett will drive the Bama offense crazy, but there's too much on Saban's side.  ROLL TIDE PAWWWWWWWLLL. TAMU: 17 -- Bama: 28
Hoying: Looking into my crystal ball, I'd place this game as the second-biggest of the entire regular season, and it could've potentially been the biggest were it a true rivalry game and not played in the middle of October. No points for guessing #1 (no, it's not Clemson-Louisville). Buckeye fans might remember seeing Big XII champ Texas A&M way way back in the 1999 Sugar Bowl, also known as the last year the Aggies really made any noise from November on. Johnny Football led them to an 11-2 2012 campaign highlighted by a classic win over Bama, but they haven't smelled (or told) 10 wins before or since. What's making the difference for the undefeated Aggies this year? ESS-AAY-SAY DEFENSE, PAWWWWWL! Most weeks this season, it's looked as if the 12th man was actually on the field playing D for the Aggies. Except when they allowed that embarrassing late rally from Tennessee. You know, the team Alabama just outrushed 438-32...aw, crap. Is this what the Buckeye haters feel like when they see Ohio State win again and again and again and again...? TAMU: 24--Bama: 34
Schweinfurth: Alright, I'm back after last weeks unfortunate non-save incident. Let's get started with this one. Ahh another Alabama versus an overrated SEC team. Yes, I called an undefeated Texas A&M team overrated. The Aggies have just been outscoring teams (and getting lucky against Tennessee). I have serious doubts about this defense...and yet The Aggies always give Alabama a rough go of it. While I do believe this will be an entertaining game, the SEC is really just Alabama then a bunch of overrated suck. Alabama simply has too much talent for them to lose this game, especially at home. This will be an entertaining game as I expect plenty of points on the board. TAMU: 28--Bama: 38
Seeberg:   Has anyone checked the calendar yet?  Are we approaching November?  Excellent, Kevin Sumlin's team is no longer considered a threat come this time of year.  Quite frankly they may not have beaten this version of the Tide even if they had caught them earlier in the season, but sadly Bama is just more complete, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, than anyone anticipated.  No 12th man for TAMU, no more undefeated season.  TAMU: 24--Bama: 38

Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: Wisconsin will certainly be entering Kinnick on a low note.  Everything was in front of them, but now they are awash in moral victories.  Don't forget that Wisconsin may be a top 5 team....they just happened to face 2 in the top 4.  I don't think they're that high up, but top 10 isn't a stretch.  Iowa was written off for dead after unacceptable losses to 2 teams with North in the title, but they do still control their B1G West destiny (weird right?).  That being said, Wisconsin's defense is just too good to gack this away even if they come in sorry for themselves.  Hornibrook won't sparkle like last week, but Clement gets it done on the ground to effectively put the Hawkeyes to bed.  Wisc: 24 -- Iowa: 9
Hoying: The folks in Vegas don't think much of Paul Chryst. The Hawkeyes have followed up a faceplant against North Dakota State (you know, the team that just lost to South Dakota State) with squeakers against Minnesota and Rutgers and a loss to Northwestern. Yet Iowa is getting 3 1/2 points in this one. Yeah, I know they're playing at Kinnick, a loud if not difficult place to win. I know that Wisconsin only has two double digit wins in six tries. But the Badgers are, well, good, in a way that Iowa isn't. They sure didn't have a hangover from a tough loss at Michigan, and I don't see them hanging their heads after the way they played last week. Yes, Nebraska's coming to town next, and yes, this matchup isn't particularly exciting for Wisconsin, but Paul Chryst will have those boys very hungry (give me the butter) for a victory. One would think by more than 3 1/2. Wis: 20--Iowa: 10
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin's defense is the real deal. The amount of pressure the Badgers can bring out of that 3-4 is unreal and it showed last week. Cory Clement finally showed the promise he showed two years ago before getting hurt. Iowa is showing their true colors this year. A decent defense, but that offense is just bad. I usually don't call for shutouts because it is so easy to get a crap score in garbage time but I will make an exception this week. Clement with another monster game: Wis: 27--Iowa: 0
Seeberg:   Man do we pick any games outside the B1G and the SEC?  Oh well, in any event, this game is not likely to be enjoyable except to the purists that loved watching that 14-7 TTUN win over Bucky a few weeks ago.  Wisconsin doesn't have two weeks to prepare for this game so the play-calling isn't likely to be as flawless as it was in the first half last week.  Fortunately for Wiscy, Iowa is borderline lousy, particularly on offense.  The Badgers get over their second-half misery last week and get back on track.  Wisc: 31--Iowa: 7

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Oh boy....ANOTHER Arkansas game.  Are these SEC West teams any good or just playing the round robin game with equal competition? I have no clue, but I don't think either of these teams are going to make any real noise moving forward.  Enter the Division of Mediocrity where everyone goes 8-4 (except Bama) and are ranked in the top 15 due to circular logic.  The differentiating factor is that Arkansas has won a game that had some clout.  Don't give me LSU, Auburn fans....you know Les's stupidity is the only reason you won that...on a review nonetheless. Woo Pig once more.  Ark: 20 -- Aub: 17
Hoying: Another week, another Arkansas game against a ranked opponent. At this rate, we're going to be Woo Pig blog. What do you expect when the only conferences that have showed up lately are the B1G, the SEC West, and the ACC Atlantic? Maybe one of these weeks a Pac-12 team other than Washington will step up and we can have an excuse to pick a game out there. Like Arizona vs. Oregon! RichRod vs. Brady Hoke, with all the bad blood of Arizona wrecking Oregon's title hopes weighed against how bad Oregon sucks now that everyone realizes they're a gimmick flash-in-the-pan! Wait, they don't play this year at all? Oh well, thank goodness we can still enjoy this wonderful matchup of ranked foes. Remember in 2007 when Arkansas lost to Auburn 9-7? And then they lost to Auburn 65-43 3 years later? Last year this game was a 54-46 Woo Pig-tory, soooo...low scoring? Arkansas win? Ark: 13--Aub: 9
Schweinfurth: Ugh, more SEC suck. Both of these teams have been meh all year. I'm really not going to spend much time on this one because they are both ranked just because they preside in "the best conference in America" (but that's another conversation). Arkansas wins in a game that resembles beating your head against a wall for 60 minutes. Ark: 12--Aub: 6
Seeberg:  The only good news regarding this matchup is that the loser will likely, thankfully, fall out of the rankings.  Auburn is apparently hanging it's hat on that close loss to Clemson, you know, the same Clemson that was markedly outplayed at home by NC State last week and needed miserable red zone execution from the Wolfpack to sneak out an OT win.  The Razorbacks, meanwhile, pushed Ole Miss down (but not out of the rankings, naturally) as the best 3-loss team in the country with an impressive win.  I don't truly trust either of these teams a ton, but barring a letdown after beating the Rebels, I have a bit less distrust for Pig Sooey or however the heck it's spelled.  Go Pumbaas.  Ark: 31--Aub: 21

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Many circled this stretch of 2 tough road games as the stumbling block for the young Bucks....not I.  Wisconsin has far exceeded my expectation for them this year and the Bucks passed that test with flying colors.  Penn State has shown they are what we thought they were.  James Franklin is fighting for his job, but I can't see Urban dropping one to a team with this much less talent.  Saquon Barkley has shown some spurts both against the Buckeyes last year and this year, but this defense (when they want to) can shut him down.  Offensively, this beeter be a different story.  The Nittany Lion D is nothing close to the Badgers so JT and company have no excuses.  The environment doesn't count any more either after passing too much stiffer tests in equal hostile territory.  There's no reason for this to be a game in the fourth quarter.  OSU: 55 -- PSU: 17
Hoying: And again and again and again...sorry, you pull off 20 straight road victories and you start to forget what it feels like to drop one. Not Buckeye Nation Twitter though; that crowd divines defeat at every turn...Ah, Penn State. As I said last week, The Game is more important, and the Wisconsin series is more fun, but there's no team I enjoy watching the Buckeyes grind into dust like PSU. Whether they're throwing bottles of urine at TBDBITL, honoring coaches that enabled unspeakable horrors, or just making the name of their conference false by their mere presence, they are... the eternal unlovable losers. Which is why I love to see them as hapless as they've been lately. Penn State was neck-and-neck with our beloved Bucks in the 1990's but ever since JoePa was fired in disgrace Bill O'Brien won B1G coach of the year for going 8-4 and losing to 12-0 Ohio State, the program has been completely lost. The Silver Bullets are stinging after getting tagged for a half against an inventive Wisconsin attack. They're not going to let the likes of Saquon Barkley make them look stupid two weeks in a row. Bucks big. OSU: 45--PSU: 13
Schweinfurth: Welcome to PSU, where pick sixes are handed out like diplomas to the OSU secondary. Seriously, the Silver Bullets are going to have a field day in this one. Yes Penn State has had two weeks to figure out the Bucks (and time to pack urine into bottles and feces into baggies for TBDBITL) but there is such a talent gap. This is not the Lions of the JoPa era or even the early 2000s. I fully expect this game to get ugly quick, although odd things do happen in Not-So-Happy Valley. Saquon Barkley put the Bullets on notice last year and they will surely be ready for him this time. The Lion D has been hurt by injuries and the Buckeye offense should have a good day. I fully expect (hope for) JT to carry the ball less than 10 times. Let Weber and Samuel carry the load on this one. I'll take Noah Brown for at least one TD as well Time to get over that scoring average again. OSU: 56--PSU: 9
Seeberg:  Ah yes, thank you schedule makers for giving the Buckeyes back-to-back night road games against teams coming off byes that have arguably the two toughest venues to play in outside of Ohio Stadium in the entire conference.  Ugh.  Thankfully the Lions are a shadow of both their former selves and last week's opponent in Madison.  I'm not 100% convinced that the offensive woes of the last two weeks will be magically fixed just yet as the wideouts just aren't getting consistent separation.  That said, a healthy dose of Weber and Samuel (and for the love of God NOT 20+ carries from J.T.) is more than enough to grind PSU into submission.  Come 11:30 Saturday night it'll be 21 and counting for Urbana and Co. on the road.  OSU: 45--PSU: 10

Upset Special 
Draper: TCU over West Virginia
Hoying: BYU over Boise State
Schweinfurth: Navy over Memphis (yes, Memphis is favored)
Seeberg:  Utah over UCLA

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Grading the Bucks: Week 7 -- Wisconsin

There really is no better feeling that ripping the heart out of Badger fans.  They're 1b to TTUN when it comes to my sports fan hatred.  And if we snatched victory when they felt it was assured? Oh yeah, that's the stuff.

Offense: B+
MVP: JT Barrett
All you haters need to step up and take it.  The Wisconsin defense is really REALLY good (better than I expected) and the environment in Camp Randall is known to be crazy.  This team of younguns went in with a 10 point deficit and rallied to win.  JT is never going to set the world on fire passing, but he stepped up in a big way and showed his strengths.  The running game was pretty good (let's not forget that Mike Weber kid) but JT hit some big passes down the stretch when needed.  I think a lot of the questions about the offense can be addressed in scheme (I'll address below).  Overall, the O-line showed some youth but JT was able to escape some pressure and get things done.  This was the worst showing by the O-line but Wisconsin is far and away the best defense we've faced.  The major knock on the offense is on the receivers.  JT wasn't absolute perfection on every pass, but there were plenty that were catchable balls dropped by our receivers...and on key plays.  Stone hands need to be a think of the past, especially in a tough place like Camp Randall.  Also, MORE MIKE WEBER!

Defense: B
MVP: Chris Worley, Jerome Baker, Nick Bosa, Jalen Holmes
This unit was disappointing for most of the game as Wisconsin's offense just isn't that good. I'll give all the credit to Paul Chryst for developing a gameplan that accentuated his team's skill sets (the jet sweeps and power running game), but the OSU defense just seemed out of sorts against a QB who has done little to nothing all year and a running back who has failed to live up to the hype.  The most disheartening aspect was watching the D-line get pushed around at times in the first half and the huge run by Clement deep in Wisconsin territory.  I named Worley as an MVP because he never gave up on that play in which the defense just seemed to throw up their hands and quit.  He almost forced a turnover and completely switched momentum but for an obscure (but correctly called) rule.  The uptick came in the 2nd half and OT when the Bullets rose up and took control.  The TD drive in the 4th quarter was no good, but Hornibrook laid an absolute beauty into the receivers hands on a crucial 3rd and 9 that was indefensible.  When Hooker, Conley, and Company woke up, I loved the fire....let's not wait until the 3rd quarter next time.

Special Teams: B
MVP: Tyler Durbin
Dontre Wilson makes me crazy.  He seems to be the new Jalin Marshall (although Marshall has had some nice returns).  I have to hold my breath every time hoping he won't fumble punts...and I'm close to the point of recommending the Buckeyes let every punt drop without a punt returner.  THe risk is just too great.  That being said, the kicking specialists were fantastic. Johnston was his usual quick kicking phenom, but Tyler Durbin going into that environment with his lack of experience and drilling 3 KEY field goals is just amazing.  Cannot give him enough credit.

Coaching: C
I thought the coaches dropped the ball this week in preparation.  I need to give Wisconsin credit for a superior gameplan, but the talent on OSU's squad was outschemed for the entire first half which cannot happen.  The lack of adjustment to the jet sweep is one thing (that was a new wrinkle...but it kept working!), but the offense looked out of sorts most of the game (somewhat due to the Badger D) and the defense seemed confused vs. a nobody QB.  One other major concern was noticed by me and many of my friends: Urban seems to be forcing the ball to Curtis Samuel (a la Braxton Miller) to the point that the offense is losing flow.  I get that Samuel is a special talent and he needs touches, but they should arise organically in the gameplan, not a required touch or three every series.  I really like Mike Weber's between the tackle running style that seemed to work when needed, but pigeonholing Samuel into a situation for which he isn't suited scares me.  The other major concern I have is the lack of an intermediate middle of the field passing game.  I noticed that called passes always seem to be on the periphery of the field and either behind the line of scrimmage or 20 yards down field.  JT's strength passing the ball is the short 5-10 yard pass and by ignoring the middle of the field the defense can cheat up on the run. When 3 and medium arose, the call always seemed to be a deep pass or a swing pass trying to get the playmaker in space.  I think we need to utilize the entire field and hit the underneath throw (and the receivers need to catch the ball).  There are many more options which will open up space for the playmakers by not being stale.
There was one aspect of coaching which was phenomenal this week and that was in-game decision making.  I give Urban tons of credit for going for it on 4th down twice deep in Wisconsin territory.  Many coaches shy away from that, especially on the road, but he made the absolute right call.

Overall: B+
My overall grade is higher than any single unit because winning at Camp Randall against a quality defense (and better offense than I though) is very very impressive. While there were things I think could have been approached differently in terms of offensive gameplan and defensive execution, this was a big win for this young team psychologically and practically.  The team is solid and really excites me not just for this year but going forward.