Alright, the Buckeyes were buried for dead as the clock struck zero in Iowa City just over a week ago. By the fans, by the media, by everyone. But that little magic inherent in College Football known as #TeamChaos reared its beautiful head and we're right back in it. Let's discuss. While this is indeed a 'homer' Buckeye blog, this post is real. I will do my best to take an objective view of the current climate and demonstrate that the Buckeye's making the playoff for the 3rd time in 4 years is not a pipe dream...even after that horrid game vs. the Hawkeyes.
The Teams that Control Their Destinies
Extremely surprisingly, I count 7 (perhaps 8 teams) who are in a legitimate 'win out and you're in' scenario.
1) Alabama Crimson Tide: In the 'duh' category, we have Saban's crew. As one of three unbeaten Power 5 teams, there is (clearly) no chance for an undefeated Bama to miss out on their 4th (of 4) playoffs. The road is bumpy with two meetings (maybe only one) with other controllers of destiny. Simple plan for the Tide: Beat the Tigers and the Bulldogs and you're the number 1 seed.
2) Miami Hurricanes: This makes me sick to my stomach, but 'the U' is back to relevance and shame on the doubters (including me). This is also a 'duh' contender. Beat UVA, Pitt, and Clemson and enter the playoff as no worse than the 2 seed.
3) Oklahoma Sooners: This team just continues to roll on offense and...well, they're good on offense. Baker Mayfield can put the Heisman on his resume now as well as another playoff appearance (2nd of 4) if they win out. Beating an angry TCU team in a rematch might be tough but the wins over OSU, Oklahoma St, and TCU are too good to ignore.
4) Clemson Tigers: Clemson has the lone blemish to a questionable Syracuse team but wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Miami in the ACC Title game would put the champs back into the playoff for their 3rd go round.
5) Wisconsin Badgers: Stop the talk. If the Badgers win out, they're in. There is no question and no argument. Yes, the schedule is poo, but wins over Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State (or another East team barring disaster) will be enough. The zero in the loss column will guarantee the large dairy farmers a shot at the title.
6) Georgia Bulldogs: Well, the beatdown at Jordan Hare left a mark, but UGA is in a fine position. Beat Bama or a rematch vs. Auburn and they'll be in the playoff without a doubt. The SEC East is probably the worst division in football, but the win over Notre Dame is the gift that keeps on giving.
7) Auburn Tigers: Ok, this one wasn't expected, but the absolute demolition of the Bulldogs followed by dates against Bama and possibly the Bulldogs again? The close losses to Clemson and LSU will be completely ignored. Get hot and take down the king and you're in. Honestly, this is a guarantee in my mind.
The contenders
8) TCU Horned Frogs: This is the team that might actually control their destiny as well, but it's not a done deal...yet. Winning out includes beating OU in a rematch. A two loss team with wins over OU (on the second try), Oklahoma State, and West Virginia MIGHT be enough, but I'm not willing to rubber stamp it. If they drop another, bye bye.
9) THE Ohio State Buckeyes: The sky was falling, but winning out would include beating Illinois (woo....), Michigan (better), and Wisconsin (nice!). Beating Wisconsin also removes them from our path (maybe) which is cool and all. The committee loves the Buckeyes because they know the Urban Meyer coached teams are capable of beating anyone (and losing to anyone...). I think the Buckeyes are in a beautiful spot to sneak in if they can run the table with wins over PSU, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one is really interesting. The Irish have nice wins over BC (eh), USC, and Michigan State, but everyone saw that Miami game. Did it dishearten the Irish? Can they come back from that and beat Stanford? If they take care of business, their resume looks very much like the Buckeyes. It will be very interesting.
11) USC Trojans: The Trojans are coming on strong, but wins over Stanford and... Washington or Washington State? I seriously doubt they have a legit shot, but a Pac12 champion has an outside outside outside shot with the name/athletes that USC has.
Thanks for playing but miracles are needed
12) Oklahoma State: I love Mike Gundy's squad, but they aren't winning the Big 12 and there's nothing to hang their hat on.
13) Washington Huskies: crap schedule with best win against WSU or USC and NOTHING else
14) UCF: Nice season but no.
15) Penn State: ha. Did they beat anyone other than Michigan?
"So what does it all mean Basil?"
Let's look closely at the top two tiers: Almost all teams are in the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or ACC (exceptions: Notre Dame, USC): translation: cannibalism. The only conferences that could even feasibly get 2 teams in are the SEC and ACC (and that would only happen with 1-loss Bama or 1- loss Miami--and they wouldn't be locks). This is why Ohio State lives! Let's admit it: 2 spots are locked up (barring a ton of stupid upsets): SEC Champ and ACC Champ. Oklahoma is a lock with a Big 12 title with the win in September in Columbus. This leaves one spot for craziness and OSU is ready to pounce. What is the optimal scenario for the Buckeyes? For whom should we root?
Best case sceneario
Obviously, if any of those 10 teams (not OSU) lose some stupid game to another team not listed above, that would be great (and funny). Root for that.
1) Ohio State must win out: This is obvious but often forgotten. Buckeye fans will come up with a multitude of crazy scenarios to ensure their team a shot but forget that one loss, and there is absolutely no coming back.
2) Bama wins out: "But we hates Bama, precious?" Root for Bama to clear out Georgia and Auburn. A one loss Bama has a smidgen of hope as well. Don't risk giving 2 spots to the SEC. Take that spot as the SEC's and make sure Saban gets it. We'll just beat them in the Sugar Bowl again right?...RIGHT?!?!
3) Oklahoma wins out: This knocks the specter of TCU out of the picture (prevent reverse 2014?). Also, it's almost impossible to imagine OSU jumping a 2-loss Oklahoma even if they win the Big Ten. We all remember Sept 9th and the committee will too. But what about Penn State last year? The committee looks at head to head when the records and resumes are similar. OU and OSU's resumes will be similar. Last year, OSU had a much better resume and one fewer loss than PSU. They followed the principles then, and I believe they will again.
4) For safety sake, the U wins out (barf): This knocks Clemson out and prevent a comparison of 2 loss B1G Champion OSU vs. 1-loss Miami. OSU would have better wins overall, but the loss to Iowa will be tough to ignore.
5) Would be nice for Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State to win out (prior to championship weekend): Help keep those wins on the resume looking good.
If this happens, your playoff will be:
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. ?????
Who's left to fight?
B1G Champ OSU
1 loss Wisconsin
2 loss Notre Dame
2 loss Georgia
2 loss Pac12 Champ USC (or Washington)
2 loss Clemson
By no means is this a slam dunk for Ohio State, but I like our chances.
vs. Wisky: Lasting image of defeating the Badgers in their only real test. A 59-0 pasting would be nice as well. This could get interesting, but I doubt it would.
vs. Notre Dame: This one is close, but playing the "conference champion" card is big. Notre Dame has better losses but OSU has better wins (with Wisconsin on the belt)
vs. Georgia: They have no conference championship, a win of Notre Dame in September, and...Nothing else.
vs. Pac12 Champ: zzzzzzzzzz look at the resumes
vs. Clemson: Tigers have no conference championship and a worse loss. Slight edge to Clemson in body of work, but that B1G championship...
Overall:
We only control one part of this mess.
Just.
Win.
Baby.
I believe everything laid out above will be the 'Vegas' favorite with the possible exception of Miami over Clemson. We know we can't plan for everything to go right, but this is real. Even if the best case scenario doesn't happen, the Bucks have a better than average shot if they win out. Based on the numbers, the Buckeyes have a 62% chance to make the playoffs if they win out regardless of the other teams outcomes. If you gave me those odds after last week, I'd say you were crazy, but then again...it's college football. Sit back and enjoy the ride. It may not have the desired outcome, but man is it a lot of fun!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment