Friday, September 08, 2017

Week 2: A Night to Remember

Standings
1. Hoying (3-1, 0-1 upset)
2. Draper (2-2, 0-1 upset)
3. Schweinfuth (2-2, 0-1 upset)
4. Seeberg (2-2, 0-1 upset)

Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Auburn has been one of those 'hot' teams in the off season but I'm not quite sold.  I love how Clemson is playing the 'disrespect' card while sitting in the top 5.  Clemson will be just fine but I don't know if they can surmount the Bama challenge again.  But the Auburn challenge in Death Valley? Yeah, I think they'll be fine.  Maybe Jarrett Stidham will return to his glory days at Baylor, but I think the Tigers (of Clemson) have more than enough firepower on both sides to take care of business.  Aub: 17--Clem: 34
Hoying: How much talent can a team lose and stay elite? Asking for a friend. No Deshaun Watson, no Mike Williams...no problem. Dabo has built a consistent winner at Clemson, while Auburn has been a year of Cam Newton, a string of miracle finishes, and a load of mediocrity over the last decade. There's no more to this than meets the eye. Aub: 16--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: I predict the Tigers will win this game. Not good enough? I have no love for either of these teams. Mostly because one is an overrated SEC team and the other likes to violate other teams (ask Curtis Samuel). Auburn hasn't been the all powerful offense since Cam Newton graduated. Even with the questions Clemson had on offence entering the year, the defense is still more than capable of carrying this team to the playoffs. Aub: 17--Clem: 28
Seeberg:   I also laugh at the purported disrespect flying around Death Valley as Clemson sits in the top five.  They are, begrudgingly, reloading year in and year out a la Bama and the Bucks.  Meanwhile, Auburn is a solid squad considering it isn't even the best team in its own state and took Clemson to the brink of Clemsoning at home last year, but Death Valley will prove a different story.  Aub: 13--Clem: 27 

Georgia Bulldogs @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is Notre Dame 'back'? Have we realized how stupid making those claims are as of yet? No Jacob Eason for the Dawgs seems like the Irish could be poised to pounce, but Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are still healthy.  I don't think we're at the crash point for UGA yet so I'll roll with Kirby Smart for another week.  UGA: 27--ND: 17
Hoying: Ah, the has-beens get a visit from the never-really-were. But for a late Amari Cooper TD to lifting Alabama over UGA in the 2012 SEC Championship game, this could've been a nice national championship matchup (because Alabama-Notre Dame sure as hell wasn't). This game won't get Georgia any closer to their first SEC title since 2005, but it would be a nice signature win for the young Kirby Smart era, no matter how much of a mirage Notre Dame turns out to be (again).  Georgia can't lose their first visit north in 50 years (unless you count a visit to Colorado, which I don't), or else the other SEC teams will re-barricade themselves in Confederate territory until they finally add Ohio State and Michigan in the next round of expansion. UGA: 41--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: 1-0 over with the win being over a total mismatched team makes ND good again? Righhhht. This is a team coming off of a losing season and questions around Brian Kelly. Last I checked, Nick Chubb still has NCAA eligibility and he is really, really good. I will laugh as he has a monster day over a very overrated Irish team. UGA: 35--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup of recent underachieving teams...if only considered so by their rabid fan bases as the rest of the nation sees these programs as second-tier these days.  Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are a class above the Golden Domers just about everywhere across the board (remember Nick Chubb?  Yeah he's been there for like 17 years now).  UGA pulls away in the second half.  UGA: 38--ND: 20

Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: USC was certainly tested (surprisingly?) by a resilient Western Michigan team while Stanford just steamrolled Rice in Australia.  There's been an awful lot of love for the Cardinal, but I think the Trojans will be fine after a little growing pains.  Sam Darnold may not be the second coming, but he'll pull things together in week 2.  USC is like their fans and don't really get interested (somewhat) until a bigger game comes up so they'll be ready to go on Sat.  Fight On.  Stan: 30 -- USC: 37
Hoying: USC is back...again. Yeah, you can jump all over the Trojans for starting slowly last week, but at least they didn't get smoked by 46 like they did to open last season. USC has grown up and came of age on the big stage last year in Pasadena (no, not against UCLA). Unfortunately for them, Stanford has shown zero signs of slowing down, and the Cardinal smacked last year's Rose Bowl champs up in Palo Alto. Will another year of experience for star QB Sam Darnold and a change of venue make a difference? Nah. Stan: 21--USC: 20
Schweinfurth: So Sam Darnold for Heisman? Not so much. He looked absolutely average last week and USC barely squeaked by. Stanford has owned USC in this matchup because they play great defense and control the ball. David Shaw just has some voodoo curse over the Trojans. Darnold throws 2 picks again and the Cardinal win. Stan: 28--USC: 24
Seeberg:  USC forgot to play for about 2.5 quarters last week so it's difficult to gauge just how good they might be.  The talent is not in question, only their ability to gel cohesively.  If they do, Darnold can still rip through the Pac-12 and hang out in New York for an important trophy presentation in a few months.  If not?  Well, the Cardinal will show us what that may look like on Saturday.  Fight off.  Stan: 34--USC: 24

Oklahoma Sooners @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: Do we get the repeat beatdown of last year, or are the chinks in the Buckeye Armor too much for a hot Sooner team?  Last week was a fantastic benchmark test for the Buckeyes getting them up to game speed a little early while OU simply walked over the Little Sisters of the Poor.  Baker Mayfield looked great last week, but doing that in the Shoe is another thing all together.  I don't have faith that OU's defense will stop Barrett, Dobbins, Weber, and co., but by the same token, the Sooners will score.  The hyped battle is OSU's D-line vs. the Sooner's O-line.  I actually think the reverse may be more impactful to see if the OSU running game can get work done.  The Sooners will have revenge on their minds, but the Buckeyes have their eyes on the prize. 4+ sacks for OSU enroute to high scoring victory.  OU: 38 -- OSU: 41
Hoying: To win the big games, you need great players and/or great coaching. At what point do we face the harsh truth that Oklahoma doesn't really have either? Bud Elliott of SBNation has been tracking a stat he calls the "Blue Chip Ratio," or what percentage of a team's signees are 4 or 5 star recruits. If you're not above 50%, you're not winning a national championship. The Buckeyes are sitting pretty at 71%, while Oklahoma sits right around the top of the Big 12 at 45%. Yeah, Baker Mayfield is special, and the OU O Line is pretty good, but the Bucks can pretty much outclass them at every other position (yeah, maybe even wide receiver). And the Sooners are still breaking in a brand new coach who suddenly succeeded to the throne a few short months before the season started. When in doubt, pick the team with the better players and the better coach, especially when they're playing at home. The Buckeyes wore down Indiana in the second half, and the same will happen to Oklahoma. The Bucks exorcise some prime time non-conference home game demons (Texas, USC, Virginia Tech...). Even if this one does make me extremely nervous. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Last week I asked a bunch of questions and not many were answered. Yes, Paris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon hit some home runs, but Zone Six still can't take the top off a defense (yes, Paris should have caught the ball and it would have satisfied the requirement). The chart I saw showed only like two deep shots the entire game. It's understandable because the Hoosiers were giving up the mid-range routes, but you HAVE to hit one in this game. J.K. Dobbins is a beast and it will be good to have Weber back to take some of the load off the freshman. Defensively, the lack of experience showed last week, but adjustments were made. I think the Indiana WRs played over their skill set in the first half. Oklahoma won't run that tempo in the offense so the defensive backs should't be as gassed. The defensive line is as advertised. I think we see a repeat of last week. Oklahoma will move the ball in the first half, but adjustments will be made and the D-Line will take over. Dobbins and Weber combine for 150+ and JT throws for 300 again. Should be a fun one to watch. Go Bucks!
OU: 28--OSU: 31
Seeberg:  OOOOOOOOOOklahoma where we forget that we have to play D.  However, even that beleaguered half of the ball looked good for the Sooners against UTEP last week.  Actually, several teams looked better than I'd hoped last week *cough Penn State cough* but alas, here we are with another huge early season matchup.  Lincoln Riley is presumably the next "big thing" in coaching, but he already has the Oklahoma gig and there aren't too many any better.  Will his brilliant play-calling win the day?  Sure will...except it's a night game.  By mid-second quarter last week our new offensive minds finally figured out that RUNNING to set up the pass is better than PASSING to set up the pass and it was a 35-7 second-half deluge on the Hoosiers.  And hey, 45-24 worked well last year, why not again?  Bucks big.  OU: 24--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Michigan
Hoying: Boise State over Washington State
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Penn St.
Seeberg:  Western Michigan over Michigan State

Monday, September 04, 2017

Grading the Bucks: Week 1--Indiana

We are all miserable people.  I'll be honest, there were some moments in the first half where I caught myself being miserable.  "Why did he throw it away? How'd he miss that block? Can anyone cover Cobbs?" This was certainly not the prettiest game of all time, but it was just fine for a season opener.  I have heard more whining and complaining these past few days than normal in Columbus.  JT sucks, the receivers suck, the secondary sucks, get rid of the coaches, blah blah blah.  Many is Buckeye Nation will call me an apologist but let's get real.
1) USC was in a dogfight with Western Michigan at home
2) Texas got straight up beat by an inferior Maryland squad
3) Washington farted around with Rutgers
4) Louisville and the reigning Heisman winner had to fend off Purdue.
5) South Florida struggled with Stony Brook.
6) Baylor lost to an abstract construct.
7) UNLV fell in the greatest upset of all time against a guy named Howard

...but JT didn't complete every pass and Indiana crossed the 50...

I will dissect the Buckeyes game (briefly) and I will knock some of the issues we absolutely had, but we beat a decent (not great, but decent--I'd say 6-7 wins but the schedule is tough) IU squad at home, at night, in one of the biggest games in their history BY 28 FREAKING POINTS.  Honestly, this is a coach's dream game.  Comfortable win, some adversity, no turnovers, plenty of teachable moments.

Offense: B
While my intro defended JT a great deal, this was not the performance I was hoping for.  It wasn't a bad performance like everyone would have you believe, but I was hoping for more.  I think the main issue is his absolute aversion to turnovers.  Don't get me wrong, that's a great thing...but you need to take some risks and he's still hesitant.  It will (should?!?) come as the year progresses, but I was hoping to see a little more Brett Favre gunslinging (by the way, if he does start taking risks, I'm going to go ballistic when he gets skewered for throwing a pick or two).  Also, stop arguing that the passing yards are mostly YAC.  JT just needs to loosen up on a few deep balls a game and we'll be fine.  The athletes at wide receiver aren't Calvin Johnsons, they're Percy Harvins (YAC type receivers).  JT is built for that. On the "hey, that's cool" side, meet J.K. Dobbins.  What a welcome debut in Bloomington.  I wish he didn't have to break so many tackles, but I like the fact he did it.  The big question is what's up with Weber.  I really don't think he'll be Wally Pipped, but the talking heads have anointed Dobbins as the second coming.  Don't forget how freakishly good Mike Weber was/is.  I would not be surprised in the slightest for a 60-40 Weber split in touches next week (and that's ok).  The biggest problem is sharing the load with all this talent.  With regard to the receivers, we saw the entire gamut.  Paris Campbell really fast and good and Paris Campbell dropsy drop.  The halftime adjustments saw these guys getting many more touches in the second half with 10 yard passes...and that's JT's specialty.  Keep feeding them and they'll be fine...but don't drop perfectly throw bombs...your QB needs credit for those.

Defense: B+
Again, definitely things to clean up, but not a bad first outing.  The secondary is a green as...something that is really green (grass is too lame) and they got better as the game progressed.  Also, Simmie Cobbs is really freaking good (might be the best receiver we face in the regular season).  The defensive line was as good as advertised and will just be a nightmare for teams all year.  There were a few miscommuncation plays but that's expected early on.  I heard the broadcast (and Buckeye twitter) wondering how Lagow was throwing into tight windows so why can't JT? Just remember that Lagow also threw 2 picks.  That's the trade off.  Be careful what you wish for (to restate, I would like a little more risk, but not as much as most....there is a delicate balance).  I would be remiss if I didn't mention one of the greatest plays of all time (that didn't count).  Take a bow Robert Landers.  That's a Touchdown in my eyes.

Special Teams: B+
No missed PATs, No missed FGs, no fumbled punts (woot), no kickoffs out of bounds (also woot).  I'm still concerned with the risk reward of kicking short and attempting to pin people inside the 25.  It works a lot, but is that extra 5 yards worth it when they break a decent return every once in a while.  I'm more conservative on the kickoff and prefer to boot it into the endzone every time.  I recall IU had a good return once, but it was a few days ago.  Overall, nothing stands out on special teams, which is usually a good thing (take note FSU).

Coaching: B
Nice debut for the new offensive coaches.  Not perfect, but nice.  I thought the halftime adjustments on both sides of the ball were fantastic which is a real testament to the talent on the coaching roster.  Kevin Wilson didn't go into a shell when things weren't working, but he tweaked until he found something that worked.  Defensive coaches seemed to see the man defense wasn't super hot in the first half so threw in some more zone later.  There were still some growing pains there, but outscoring an opponent 36-7 in the second half shows the dedication to training and concept.  Still want more progress from JT but it was a ok for game one with these receivers.  The decisions to go on 4th down were both correct decisions but the little jet sweep to Hill was a very curious playcall.  I'm glad Urban still knows basic math, but the play call on 4th and short should be a simple one.  They got cute and it cost them.

Overall: B+
Once again, 28 point win on the road, at night, in a hostile (sort of) environment (more than a normal IU game) in the first game of the season vs. a decent team with nothing to lose.  Buckeyes weren't uber sharp and there are certainly gaps to fill, but I'm happy we had a real test for these young freshman.  Oklahoma was trotting up and down the field last week, but I don't think they learned anything or got better last week.  Indiana provided a chance for the Buckeyes to get better and get fired up for one of the 3 biggest games on their calendar.  Game 1 to Game 2 usually yields the most improvement and I'm pumped for next week.