Week 9: Gray Day

Standings
1. Draper (27-8, 1-7 upset)
2. Schweinfurth (26-9, 0-8 upset)
3. Seeberg (24-11, 4-4 upset)
4. Hoying (23-12, 0-8 upset)

371 days after Buckeye Nation collectively vomited into their laps watching Grant Haley return a blocked FG for a touchdown in Happy Valley, the chance for revenge has arrived. There are a few other big games (I suppose) but all eyes are in Columbus this Saturday.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: This is a tough one for me.  I finally saw a little Notre Dame football last week and they looked pretty darn good slicing and dicing a hapless USC team (2nd biggest disappointment of the year?).  NC State, on the other hand, has been taking care of business since the oops to South Carolina in week one.  When the Irish play at home and they start to believe, they're tough to beat.  Brian Kelly has this magical formula that he must coach a team and horribly suck or be really good.  This year looks like the "very good" version.  NC State still has a lot of noise to make in the ACC but the dream of the playoff dies on Saturday in South Bend.  Wake up the echos.  NCSt: 20 -- ND: 24
Hoying: Color me corrected. I heard the hype surrounding NC State in the preseason and dismissed it just as quickly. I even gave myself a little pat on the back after their fluky loss to South Carolina to open the season. But make no mistake, this is a (pretty) good Wolfpack team that's a win over Clemson away from running away with the Atlantic division. A win over the Irish could even vaunt them into Playoff contention. How likely is that? Somewhat. Notre Dame is a bit one-dimensional, and NC State was able to shut down Lamar Jackson as well as anyone else over the last 2 years. But while the Wolfpack have been slowing teams down this year, the Irish have been grinding their opponents to a near halt, giving up at least 20 points a total of once. The Wolfpack are good enough to pull this off, but ND wins this game 7 out of 10 times. This will be one of those 7. NCSt: 17--ND: 21
Schweinfurth: Talk about two teams I did not think would be in this position at this time of year. I'm still not sold on either as a top 10 team but that is kind of the state of college football this year. To be perfectly honest, I just haven't watched these teams enough but I will take the Irish in a close one. NCSt: 21--ND: 24
Seeberg:  FINALLY some half-decent games this week.  Both of these squads have been pleasant surprises this year (except for the fact I despise Notre Dame, of course), exceeding their preseason expectations.  NC State has just about everything they could've hoped for this season still in front of them (ACC title, New Year's Six Bowl) if they can upend Clemson later this year, but it's tough to imagine them busting down the CFP door.  The Golden Domers, meanwhile, play a pretty hearty schedule and are likely to make the playoff if their only loss is a one-point squeaker to the finally-living-up-to-expectations Georgia Bulldogs.  NC State may well be ahead late, but the Wolfpack has a dismal kicking game that may very well do them in.  I just hope they don't lose on a blocked FG return for a touchdown- not sure I can handle that two years in a row.  NCSt: 13--ND: 20

Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones
Draper: Is Iowa State good? I don't think so, but they've strung together some nice little performances in the Big 12.  TCU is another team that avoid the middle ground and sticks to major playoff contender or faceplant.  Gary Patterson seems to have solved the formula this year and I expect that to continue until they meet the Sooners.  Were Iowa State playing the role of sneaky good, I'd see upset potential.  As it is, they have already snakebitten Oklahoma so the Horned Frogs will be ready.  The Frogs take Ames and kill the Cyclone train before it got started.  TCU: 28 -- ISU: 17
Hoying: How were we supposed to know that Iowa State of all teams would be Texas's big upset win in Tom Herman's first year? Yeah, the Cyclones aren't exactly Oklahoma (whoops), but outside of somehow both allowing Iowa to run all over them and Texas to completely shut them down, Iowa State has looked, well, competent. "Prove it" time has arrived, though, as the Clones now face 3 straight ranked opponents. Meanwhile, TCU and QB Kenny Hill have been quietly destroying most teams, but struggled a little against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. There isn't much chance of TCU sleeping on ISU, though, after what the Cyclones did to Oklahoma in Norman. The Frogs cross another lane of traffic toward their playoff lily pad. TCU: 31--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: The Cyclones are revitalized after so many years of obscurity and have been fun to watch. It's odd to see Big 12 teams play defense, but that is what both of these teams do. As much as I have been rooting for ISU this year, TCU just has the superior talent. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cyclones pull the upset, but I trust Kenny Hill just a little bit more. TCU: 31--ISU: 28
Seeberg:  Do not adjust your eyes, folks, this IS a matchup of ranked teams.  How the Cyclones gave up 44 at home to we-can't-spell-offense Iowa and then only 31 at Oklahoma is beyond me, but either way ISU shouldn't get too comfortable as a ranked squad.  TCU struggled to put away the high-powered offensive teams it has played thus far, but Iowa State is still a notch below the likes of West Virginia and Okie State.  TCU keeps marching towards a possible playoff bid.  TCU: 35--ISU: 24

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Draper: Do you like offense? Then enjoy some up and down the field action in Morgantown.  There is absolutely no reason for this game to hit the under.  Back and forth we go, but the Pokes still have Mason Rudolph the last time I checked.  He was held in check in Austin, but a miracle interception (on one of the worst passes ever) saved the mullet.  West Virginia is always a weird team under Holgo, but Gundy came ready to fight.  Come after me! I'm a man, I'm 50! Sorry Larry Fine, Pokes keep rolling.  OkSt: 44--WVU: 34
Hoying: Were both of these teams looking forward to this game last week? Oklahoma State escaped overtime with Texas thanks to a gift of an interception while West Virginia was a late failed 2-point conversion away from landing in OT themselves. The old West Virginia defense is back, giving up over 30 points in each of their last 4 games. That's bad news with Mason Rudolph coming to town; the nation's top passing attack isn't likely to be stopped 2 weeks in a row. Cowboys keep rolling. OkSt: 38-WVU: 27
Schweinfurth: It sure looks like everyone has figured out that vaunted Cowboy offense. The Pokes would be in even worse shape if Texas didn't throw to the wide open safety in OT last week. However, the WVU defense may be the medicine to cure the offensive woes. This will be a shootout and I hope we get to see an epic Holgerson meltdown. OkSt: 45--WVU: 38
Seeberg:  I'm not entirely certain what to make of this contest.  I know Texas actually plays SOME defense unlike most of the Big 12, but Mason Rudolph and Co. looked downright anemic last week, scoring a whopping 13 points in a game that included an overtime period.  Still, I'm more inclined to consider that an aberration, particularly when facing West Virginia's nearly nonexistent defense.  Cowboys get their big O back on track this week.  OkSt: 45--WVU: 28

Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Alright Bucks.  This is your moment.  As soon as the clock hit zeros on Sept 9 (much earlier actually), the room for error went to zero.  To their credit, they have been playing like a team on a mission ever since, but this is the first real test.  Penn State is a very good squad with one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football in Saquon Barkley.  Trace McSorley has also been quite proficient in playing "500" with a decent receiving corp for chunks of yards.  Much of this will come down to 2 things: Can the Bullet defense slow down Barkley both rushing and passing? and Will JT continue his spectacular run of accuracy and precision?  The Buckeyes have been phenomenal on offense over the last 5 games but a return to early September is simply not an option.  I expect the D-line to harass McSorley, but they need to be quick to prevent Barkley from beating linebackers in the passing game.  On offense, this is the time for the 3-headed rushing monster to emerge (Weber, Dobbins, AND Barrett).  Yes, this is the Buckeyes best opponent remaining, but it's also PSU's best competition by a long shot.  The Lions have been a tad shaky on the road and I expect some jitters to emerge.  The Bucks are out for revenge and they're taking it out on the Penn State.  Perhaps we meet again in January, but tonight belongs to the boys in Columbus.  PSU: 24--OSU: 38
Hoying: Do you know the last conference opponent to beat Ohio State in back-to-back seasons? No, it isn't Michigan. It isn't Michigan State, either. And no, it's not Penn State (the Lions haven't won 2 consecutive against Ohio State since joining the B1G). It's Wisconsin, back in 2003-04. Needless to say, 13 years without consecutive losses to a conference opponent is the longest streak in the B1G (by a lot). Am I worried about it coming to an end? You bet. More than I've been worried about any opponent since Oklahoma last year. Not because Penn State ended OSU's 2016 undefeated run; that loss was a total fluke. But the Lions present some matchup problems for the boys in gray and...gray. No, I don't mean in the running game, since the run D is not going to be intimidated by Barkley. But gone are the days when McSorley would just close his eyes and chuck the ball into double coverage: PSU is deliberately working Barkley into the passing game as well. Add that to Gesicki making a nice big target coming off the end of the line and the safeties and linebackers are going to have their work cut out for them. And McSorley himself can move a bit, too. What about the Buckeye O? JT will be fine if he has time to work. The one non-fluky part of Penn State's win last year was the way they demolished our offensive line in the 4th quarter. The result was a foregone conclusion once Penn State took the lead, as Barrett took sack after sack to end the game. But even after losing Elflein to the draft and Bowen to injury, the line should hold a little better this time around. Add in a little thunder and lightning from Weber and Dobbins, and a little home cooking from the Buckeye faithful, and the Bucks should be able to pull out a big win. Should. PSU: 23--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth:  First, as an aside, if anyone wants to have some fun check out Kirk Barton's twitter account. He's been putting kitty fans in their place all week (@Kirk_Barton) and it has been glorious. Penn State owes Ohio State a thank you for their Rose Bowl loss and current standing. PSU would be stuck in mediocrity and the illustrious James Franklin fired if it weren't for a blow PI call or a field goal block that is illegal this year. This game is all about revenge. Penn State is a very good defense, but what offense have they played ranked above 60 in scoring offense? Answer: No one. Everyone wants to talk about Penn State's offense, and they are good. But Barkley has struggled to get going against Northwestern AND Indiana. The only real part of Penn State's offense is the passing game. I'm still not quite sold on OSU's secondary. The good news is that McSorely likes to play 500 with his receivers when under pressure. Hit him, and hit him often. I don't expect this game to disolve into a blowout, but if, and it's a big if, Urban allows this offense to operate how it has the last four weeks, the PSU defense will have its hands full. Just remember, feed the running backs! This one is for all you Nittany Kitty fans out there: WE ARE...LOSERS!!! PSU: 21--OSU: 31
Seeberg:  I told everyone who would listen (which was virtually nobody) that Penn State would pull away from UM and win easily, but even I didn't think it would be THAT easy.  The question now becomes this:  Was that game a referendum on just how GOOD the Nittanys are, or just how BAD that team up north might be?  As always the answer is a little of both, but I'm betting on mostly the latter.  Penn State blew out Indiana, UM needed overtime, essentially meaning UM and Indiana are equals, and then Penn State blew out UM.  Seems to follow logic to me.  Of course OSU also blew out Indiana, so that leaves us with two teams that are likely each other's equals again.  As many of you Buckeye faithful, I still have nightmares about the endless, horribly thrown jump balls from Trace McSorearm that were lofted in the air and somehow kept coming down in the hands of Lion receivers.  This year, that is a secondary option to all-world RB Saquon Barkley who, quite frankly, scares me a TON more as a receiver out of the backfield as an actual running back.  Gesicki at TE is a matchup issue as well, but the real matchup is the OSU offense which is clicking to the tune of #1 in all of college football in points per game (47.3) against Penn State's D (9.6 ppg, also #1 in the country).  I am still highly concerned that our suddenly brilliant offensive game planners will fall in love with the passing game that has worked so well of late and that it will stall against what is by far the best defense we have seen to date.  Personally?  I'd like to see a Weber/Dobbins/Barrett backfield.  How terrifying  would that be to ANY opposing defense?  PLEASE run it early and often.  If Weber/Dobbins combine for 35 or more carries there is absolutely no chance we lose this game.  Oh, and let's score 7s instead of trying 3s again.  Time to return Penn State to the purgatory of near-national relevance again.  OSU: 28--PSU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Arizona State over USC
Hoying: Arizona over Washington State
Schweinfurth: Georgia Tech over Clemson
Seeberg:  Houston over South Florida