Mythbusters: Fiesta Bowl

Flash back to a year (and two days) ago. You just saw what may have been the best Buckeye team in your lifetime come up just short against their most annoying modern recurring foe after jumping out to a 16-0 lead and seeming to have the game well in hand. It hurt like hell, and it felt like Ohio State would have gotten the job done if only one of so many bad breaks (and bad calls) had gone their way. 

But does this stand up to scrutiny?

There's no way to be sure without going back and rewatching the game. And I can't think of many activities I would enjoy less. But, because I love you, loyal reader, so much, and because I would spare you from experiencing this awful pain yourself, I went back and watched the whole thing again. We'll go through a few lasting impressions that have seemed to resonate most strongly with Buckye Nation over the last year. 

Myth #1: All the breaks went against Ohio State. Any one of them plays out differently and the Buckeyes win.

Verdict: BUSTED

It is true that Ohio State had a lot of bad breaks in the Fiesta Bowl:

• Garrett Wilson's circus catch on the first drive, while overturned on replay to give Ohio State a first down instead of an incompletion, completely broke the momentum of that first drive.
• Dobbins got caught by the foot on his second big breakaway run and went down at the 8 instead of in the end zone.
• Dobbins then dropped a pass in the end zone.
• On the next drive, Dobbins dropped a well set-up screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16.
• Shaun Wade's targeting ejection turned a 3rd down sack into a first down and robbed Ohio State of their best slot corner.
• Dobbins hurt his ankle, missed a second quarter and a third quarter drive, and came back with a heavily taped ankle.
• Josh Proctor fell down chasing Trevor Lawrence on his 67 yard TD run.
• Cam Brown roughed the punter after missing the ball.
• Okudah's strip of Justyn Ross and Fuller's scoop and score were overturned on replay.
• Clemson muffed a punt before their last drive but immediately fell on the ball.
• And, of course, Olave broke off his route as Fields let the ball go straight at Nolan Turner.

That's a lot of big-time mistakes, almost all of which directly and proximately made a difference on the scoreboard. BUT, you may forget that the Buckeyes caught a decent number of breaks as well.

• Clemson's top receiver, Tee Higgins, hit his head on the ground on Clemson's first drive and misses the entire first half. Ask Troy Smith what losing your top receiver does to your offense. Heck, ask Justin Fields.
• Clemson missed a field goal on their first drive.
• Clemson dropped a sure pick six on Ohio State's third drive.
• Wide open Higgins dropped the ball on third down at midfield as Clemson was driving to try to take the lead coming out of the half.

Yes, most of the bad breaks went against the Buckeyes, but Higgins' absence cannot be overstated, and a pick six is always a game changer.

Myth #2: The Buckeyes win the Fiesta Bowl if Dobbins doesn't get hurt.

Verdict: BUSTED

Everyone remembers two things about Dobbins' performance in the Fiesta Bowl: (1) he ripped off multiple huge runs before he got hurt, and (2) he didn't do a whole lot after his ankle was taped up. This is mostly true, but it ignores a key part of the game: the period between Dobbins' second huge run and his ankle injury. 

The first quarter ended with JK Dobbins tearing off a 64 yard run to the Clemson 8 yard line, capping off a 6 rush, 141 yard quarter. Dobbins left the game with an ankle injury with 2:05 remaining in the first half. Between these two events, here was his production:

• 3 yard rush on second and goal
• Dropped TD pass on third and goal
• Dropped screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16
• Rush for no gain to start a drive
• Rush for a loss of 2 yards on 3rd and 1, injured ankle

That's five touches for a total of one yard. Dobbins had himself a first quarter but was strangely ineffective for the second. The Buckeyes were already starting to sprinkle in Master Teague before Dobbins got hurt, as Teague had four rushes to Dobbins' three during the pre-injury second quarter.

After returning, Dobbins did this:

• 2 yard rush
• 5 yard rush
• 11 yard reception
• 4 yard rush
• 7 yard reception
• 2 yard rush
• 11 yard rush
• 1 yard rush
• 2 yard rush
• 6 yard rush
• Rush for loss of 1 yard
• 13 yard reception
• 9 yard reception
• 9 yard reception

Not great, but not bad. And those last three receptions were on Ohio State's last drive, where they were moving the ball seemingly at will before you-know-what happened. And Dobbins himself was wide open for another 5 to 10 yard checkdown pass on that fateful play. Nobody wanted to see Dobbins hobbled, but he was able to be productive enough post-injury.

Myth #3: The refs hosed Ohio State out of a win.

Verdict: Wait a second. This one's a little complicated. When people think this, they usually have two plays in mind:

1. Shaun Wade's sack / targeting ejection.
2. Okudah's strip and Fuller's scoop and score, overturned on replay.

Regarding #1, the myth is BUSTED. It is true that the importance of this play cannot be overstated. At this point in the game, Ohio State had a 16 point lead, the Clemson offense had done absolutely nothing, and Wade had just scored a huge drive ending sack that threatened to knock Lawrence out of the game. In an instant, Ohio State lost their best slot corner, the Clemson drive was extended, and, after throwing at Wade's replacement (Amir Riep) on the next play and drawing a DPI, the Tigers got on the board almost immediately, scoring their first of three straight touchdowns. HOWEVER, the call was the correct one. Wade lowered his head and hit Lawrence's helmet with the crown of his helmet. Was it a dirty hit? No. Was it targeting by the letter of the rule? Yes. Would Wade have hit Lawrence helmet-to-helmet anyway if both he and Lawrence didn't lower their helmets? Probably? Is the targeting rule the worst rule in sports? Yes. But blame goes to the rule writers, not the refs on the field (or in the replay booth).

Regarding #2, the myth is PLAUSIBLE. Ross caught the ball and brought it down while he took three quick steps, all before the ball came out. Nothing approaching "indisputable video evidence" was available to reverse the scoop and score call on the field. This would have given Ohio State back the lead immediately after losing it, but it's hard to say whether the game would have gone in Ohio State's favor from there. After the botched call, Clemson had to punt anyway and then Fields threw an interception. Maybe with the momentum and the lead the Buckeyes could have done something differently, but they ended up taking the lead back on the next drive after that anyway.

Myth #4: The Buckeyes dominated the Tigers, but a tiny handful of big plays and costly errors cost them the game.

Verdict: CONFIRMED

Ohio State outgained Clemson by 99 yards and converted 7 of 18 third downs to Clemson's 5 of 14, adding 1-for-1 on fourth down as well. The Buckeyes scored on 5 drives to Clemson's 4. But there were a few plays when they couldn't get out of their own way, and a few when you just have to tip your cap to the Tigers:

• Dobbins drops two probable touchdown passes, taking 8 points off the board.
• Shaun Wade's targeting sack and Amir Riep's subsequent DPI gifted Clemson the ball at the Ohio State 16 after the drive had been dead stopped, and Clemson (unlike Ohio State all game) is able to convert in the red zone for the TD.
• Clemson has the ball on their own 33 with 1:22 left in the first half and one timeout, and rips off a 67 yard QB draw.
• Roughing the punter, followed almost immediately by a 53 yard dumpoff TD pass to Travis Etienne. Another Clemson scoring drive that had to be brought back from the dead.
• The overturned scoop and score.

And after all that, the Buckeyes were knocking on the door, down six, at the Clemson 23, with 43 seconds left, and moving the ball with surprising ease.

Myth #5: Everybody thought Ohio State was going to pull it off at the end.

Verdict: I mean, I did. Didn't you?