It's title defense time in Columbus, Ohio, which for both such seasons in recent memory has meant a long, joyless slog before watching hopes of a repeat slip away at the last moments. This year, the Buckeyes don't have time for a hangover, as perhaps the biggest season opener in the history of the game finds its way to the banks of the Olentangy (under the bright lights of...the sun). Elsewhere, perennial early season heroic schedulers LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame find themselves with nasty wake-up calls even before the month of August is out.
Louisiana State Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Now the dust of another offseason is in the books and our long national nightmare is over....well actually, it's been pretty...pretty....pretty good after the end of last season (It's good to be the king). The one (potential) good outcome of the playoff is that these early season games should become more of the norm (since the points are made up and the score doesn't matter). Now, to the play on the field. This is the annual 'we really have no clue so let's throw some darts'. Both teams return top Heisman favorites at QB but the questions are " Can Brian Kelly actually win a season opener?" and "Can Clemson actually play defense this year?" Tom Allen is supposed to fix all wounds (and he did wonders for IU), but will it be enough? Honestly, Clemson is a big name this year due to a senior laden roster, but I don't think they have the horses to beat the best of the best. Good news everyone! LSU is not the best of the best! I'm going to (begrudgingly) give the slight edge to the Tigers (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to Death Valley (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to the team that plays Tiger Rag....Oh well, I lean the team playing in their own Death Valley, home of the dumbest pregame tradition of rubbing a rock. Dabo gets it done (barely) while Brian Kelly feels the heat turned up to a new level. LSU: 27--Clem:30
Hoying: Another year, another monster opener for Brian Kelly's LSU. Say what you want about the SEC's out of conference scheduling, but it takes real courage to start every year's Playoff hunt in a one-game hole like the Bayou Bengals do year after year. And this time it'll be against another team that's been lost in the wilderness for the first half of the 2020's. Neither team has been able to replicate its respective height from the 2020 CFP Championship, when Joe Burrow showed Trevor Lawrence how we do things in Athens, OH, before Justin Fields and Crew put the nail in Clemson's coffin the following year. Clemson is a trendy pick to return to the Playoff after sneaking in last year, and even to make off with the hardware depending on whom you ask. But I have to say I don't see it. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik may be the best returning QB in college football this year, but the Tigers had him last season and CU opened the season by getting pasted by Georgia 34-3. And LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier may be every bit as good as Carson Beck was last year. LSU's defense has been pretty bad ever since their last magical title run but it's not like Clemson was a brick wall last season either. I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ONES) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. Kelly finally starts the season on the right foot. LSU: 31--Clem: 27
Hoying: Another year, another monster opener for Brian Kelly's LSU. Say what you want about the SEC's out of conference scheduling, but it takes real courage to start every year's Playoff hunt in a one-game hole like the Bayou Bengals do year after year. And this time it'll be against another team that's been lost in the wilderness for the first half of the 2020's. Neither team has been able to replicate its respective height from the 2020 CFP Championship, when Joe Burrow showed Trevor Lawrence how we do things in Athens, OH, before Justin Fields and Crew put the nail in Clemson's coffin the following year. Clemson is a trendy pick to return to the Playoff after sneaking in last year, and even to make off with the hardware depending on whom you ask. But I have to say I don't see it. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik may be the best returning QB in college football this year, but the Tigers had him last season and CU opened the season by getting pasted by Georgia 34-3. And LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier may be every bit as good as Carson Beck was last year. LSU's defense has been pretty bad ever since their last magical title run but it's not like Clemson was a brick wall last season either. I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ONES) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. Kelly finally starts the season on the right foot. LSU: 31--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: Brian Kelly hasn't won a single opener at LSU. Let that sink in. They guy who was brought in to turn a program around is failing. Clemson is a trendy pick to make a lot of noise this year. I can see it, now that Dabo has learned that you can actually help your team through the transfer portal. I have no faith in Brian Kelly until he proves he can actually coach a team instead of just yelling and turning purple. LSU: 24--Clem: 31
Seeberg: First of all, credit to ALL six of these teams for scheduling absolute bangers in week one. You love to see it! Now to the games. Tigers of Death Valley, meet Tigers of Death Valley. Everyone is high on both of these teams this year, primarily due to recruiting rankings coupled with returning signal callers. Dabo’s squad may be good enough to make a run in the CFP and keep his gig for another few years, despite his almost anachronistic view of the sport these days. Brian Kelly has another top 10 team too; however, not only did he squander the literal Heisman winner two years ago (who also showed out in the NFL), but he never wins these opening games. USC got him in week one last year, and Clemson is markedly better than that team. I don’t buy that LSU will be light years better than last season, so I’ve gotta go with the orange-clad Tigers in this one. Clem: 31—LSU: 20
SUNDAY, AUGUST 31
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: Oh boy....thinking about this game, my immediate gut reaction was 'why are we even talking about this game?' The Irish went to the title game last year (some luck but still), and Miami....sucks. While Miami still does indeed suck, I forgot about Carson Beck fleeing to South Florida to be with his girlfr....ooops. The intrigue is that Miami has a proven starter (who may be just ok) but ND is starting a redshirt freshman. While Hard Rock Stadium and the Miami home crowd is usually meh at best, they tend to come out (a little) for the bigger games. I don't think the homefield advantage will be massive, but the simple fact that the signal caller on the other side is extremely green makes this really interesting. I expect a MASSIVE amount of work to go to Jeremiyah Love but if the Canes don't have any respect for the pass, there could be trouble. Beck should provide a stabilizing presence. Although it guts me to do this, I'm picking the Convicts. I don't like it, but home team, at night, with the (likely) better QB, in the opener? ND: 17--UM: 20
Hoying: Speaking of monster openers, the Irish are up to bat again and hoping to get to October unscathed for the first time in the Marcus Freeman era. Not that any early losses have stopped them in the past from making it even to the CFP Championship. The Irish were never going to win that game (no, not even before 3rd-and-Jeremiah) and they still need to take another step to be a true title contender, but Miami has been a giant leap behind them ever since Glenn Sharpe grabbed Chris Gamble in the Tempe end zone. If the Canes can give Carson Beck the glow-up they gave Cam Ward last year, they should be able to score on anybody, but as Miami learned in their last 2 games last year, even scoring 38+ won't save you if the defense doesn't get off the bus. Defense has been Notre Dame's calling card under Freeman, and with Jeremiyah Love back to pace the Irish ground game, it's up to Lloyd Carr's grandson to try to give Notre Dame the steady hand behind center they've been so desperately missing in their last few campaigns. Time will tell if he is the answer they've been looking for, but they won't need his A-game to get by Miami. No rest for the wicked, as Texas A&M will come calling in just two week, but the Irish are hot out of the gates for a second straight year. ND: 34--UM: 31
Hoying: Speaking of monster openers, the Irish are up to bat again and hoping to get to October unscathed for the first time in the Marcus Freeman era. Not that any early losses have stopped them in the past from making it even to the CFP Championship. The Irish were never going to win that game (no, not even before 3rd-and-Jeremiah) and they still need to take another step to be a true title contender, but Miami has been a giant leap behind them ever since Glenn Sharpe grabbed Chris Gamble in the Tempe end zone. If the Canes can give Carson Beck the glow-up they gave Cam Ward last year, they should be able to score on anybody, but as Miami learned in their last 2 games last year, even scoring 38+ won't save you if the defense doesn't get off the bus. Defense has been Notre Dame's calling card under Freeman, and with Jeremiyah Love back to pace the Irish ground game, it's up to Lloyd Carr's grandson to try to give Notre Dame the steady hand behind center they've been so desperately missing in their last few campaigns. Time will tell if he is the answer they've been looking for, but they won't need his A-game to get by Miami. No rest for the wicked, as Texas A&M will come calling in just two week, but the Irish are hot out of the gates for a second straight year. ND: 34--UM: 31
Schweinfurth: I'm not buying Miami this year. They brought in Cam Ward to make them better last year and got a similar result. Notre Dame is still well coached and will suck the life out a game. I'll take the Domers. ND: 21--UM: 13
Seeberg: Sunday night banger before the NFL takes over (meh). Teams are never the same at the end of the year as they are at the start. Never will that hold more true than in this matchup. The Irish have the better roster top to bottom, but start a wildly young QB. Carson Beck leads the U, which sounds great, until you realize that Cam Ward couldn’t get this squad to the playoffs last year…and none of their skill players that left even made an NFL roster. Not great implications about the guys behind them. If this one were in November, or even the playoff, I would almost certainly take ND, but Freeman’s teams start slow more often than not (see: NIU, Miami Ohio, Louisville last year) and this is quick start week one. The U gets the W and thinks they’re back before a hilarious loss to South Florida in two more weeks. ND: 17—Miami: 24
SATURDAY, AUGUST 30
Texas Longhorns @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Once more, into the breach. Your reward for winning a national championship is starting the next year with a new QB, against a top team, a Hall of Famer's nephew (and Eli), and a team who you dispatched on the way to the title (You will always remember the name of Captain Jack Sawyer). While this game shows what is wrong with the playoff, it also shows the greatness of college football. The winner will be showered with praise, and the loser will be taunted and booed until my throat is sore! Honestly, this has little effect on the grand scheme as both teams are likely in the CFP (although a loss for UT would make the margin for error quite thin in the SEC--can't have 2 more losses--probably). On to the game: the Buckeyes' season will come down to the same question as last year: can the QB not lose the game? The hype is there with Sayin, but we simply haven't seen it yet. Honestly, the hype is the there for Arch, but he's not the polished prospect everyone says he is. I'd give the edge to OSU for almost every position group (outside of QB), but the margins are thin across the board. The X factors are the top 2 players in college football and thankfully they both wear scarlet. Jeremiah Smith is a legit NFL receiver right now (and likely last year as well) so the Horns will need to scheme him to a reduced capacity. Bad news for them is that Carnell Tate is also eyeing the league and should have some softer coverage. Caleb Downs is a top 5 pick in the NFL next year and he's going to have to lead this young defense and be the coordinator on the field (since the DC ran away as fast as he could when he didn't get his way). Matt Patricia is an interesting (weird) hire, but he's thrown right into the fire vs. a Sarkesian led team. I expect both teams to show flaws and both QBs to make mistakes, but the magic of the Shoe needs to be the final nail in the coffin. I could see this going anyway as these teams are both clearly in the elite athletic class. Execution is key....and I'm throwing to #4. Go Bucks! Open the season with a bang! UT: 20--OSU: 24
Hoying: If you think the deja vu is strong in Columbus, imagine what they're going through down south. No Notre Dame sandwich game for the Longhorns: they're facing the Scarlet and Gray in back-to-back games, a phenomenon I'm not sure has ever happened in the history of Buckeye football. But much like last year's national championship rematch in Seattle, these are hardly the same two teams that faced off back in January. A combined 26 players have since left for the NFL, leaving numerous holes and question marks across both teams. Of course, all Ohio State does is reload (as does...Texas? per Stanford Steve, notwithstanding taking the entirety of the 2010s off) but the QB and DL positions remain a bit untested. Not the best recipe for success when opening the season against the #1 team in the country. But Texas is still a work in progress as well. Yes, Arch has the famous last name, but so did Eli, and he never won anything of consequence at Ole Miss. And if you remember the Buckeyes' struggles at O-line last year, Texas is in the midst of replacing 4 starters with relatively untested replacements, including a left tackle with a cast on his hand. That'll make it a bit harder to get away with the standard 20 free holds a game spotted to OSU's opponents. I so want to go with the home team in this one. Top to bottom, I think the Buckeyes are the more complete team and just better overall. But as much as Jimmies and Joes beat X's and O's, the scheme matters on the margins when the game is otherwise nearly talent-equated. And you don't want to be breaking in a new OC and a brand new DC on a stage like this. It took 3 years for Jim Knowles's defense to reach its final form, and the offense never looked quite right back in 2023 when Hartline took the reins the first time. Sark is one of the finest offensive minds in the business, so Ohio State better have their defense ready to go from the opening gun. It helps to have continuity from last year's championship defense with Caleb Downs, who's practically a defensive coach himself, but miscommunications doomed Ohio State against Oregon last year, and I fear the same trip-ups will snag them here. Horns get revenge, regain the lead in the series, and slide into the (cattle) driver's seat for a favorable seed in the Playoff. UT: 23--OSU: 20.
Hoying: If you think the deja vu is strong in Columbus, imagine what they're going through down south. No Notre Dame sandwich game for the Longhorns: they're facing the Scarlet and Gray in back-to-back games, a phenomenon I'm not sure has ever happened in the history of Buckeye football. But much like last year's national championship rematch in Seattle, these are hardly the same two teams that faced off back in January. A combined 26 players have since left for the NFL, leaving numerous holes and question marks across both teams. Of course, all Ohio State does is reload (as does...Texas? per Stanford Steve, notwithstanding taking the entirety of the 2010s off) but the QB and DL positions remain a bit untested. Not the best recipe for success when opening the season against the #1 team in the country. But Texas is still a work in progress as well. Yes, Arch has the famous last name, but so did Eli, and he never won anything of consequence at Ole Miss. And if you remember the Buckeyes' struggles at O-line last year, Texas is in the midst of replacing 4 starters with relatively untested replacements, including a left tackle with a cast on his hand. That'll make it a bit harder to get away with the standard 20 free holds a game spotted to OSU's opponents. I so want to go with the home team in this one. Top to bottom, I think the Buckeyes are the more complete team and just better overall. But as much as Jimmies and Joes beat X's and O's, the scheme matters on the margins when the game is otherwise nearly talent-equated. And you don't want to be breaking in a new OC and a brand new DC on a stage like this. It took 3 years for Jim Knowles's defense to reach its final form, and the offense never looked quite right back in 2023 when Hartline took the reins the first time. Sark is one of the finest offensive minds in the business, so Ohio State better have their defense ready to go from the opening gun. It helps to have continuity from last year's championship defense with Caleb Downs, who's practically a defensive coach himself, but miscommunications doomed Ohio State against Oregon last year, and I fear the same trip-ups will snag them here. Horns get revenge, regain the lead in the series, and slide into the (cattle) driver's seat for a favorable seed in the Playoff. UT: 23--OSU: 20.
Schweinfurth: For all the talk of Ohio State needing to replace everyone...so is Texas. Here's the thing, Ohio State actually has the more experienced offensive line. This will be huge. There is also a cheat code out wide in #4. Yes, Texas has Arch Manning, but he hasn't been the world beater everyone says he is so far. Maybe I'm wrong. I do know that Matt Patricia is going to unleash Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles. This one should be fun and a classic. The Bucks owe Texas one in the 'Shoe (Sweed didn't catch the ball). UT: 20--OSU: 27
Seeberg: Well kids, we made it. Buckeye football is back! The glow of the natty seems to be long gone inside the Woody. This team is so dichotomous to me. It looks NOTHING like the title-winning team from last season. Fourteen(!) draft picks- and Josh Fryar made a roster as a UDFA- are gone (and I’m still made that Tre never returned kickoffs). New faces absolutely everywhere. However, we also have, almost inarguably, the best offensive AND defensive player in the country returning. Seems impossible. And who’s coming to town?
The Longhorns, the team that clearly gave us the stiffest test in the postseason last year. They’re also replacing a big chunk of talent (12 draft picks, including the Thorpe Award winner), but their D-line is largely intact. And in case you hadn’t heard, they have a Manning at QB- one who threw for over 1,000 yards last season in just two starts and spot/mop up duty. That experience must feel like a lifetime to Julian Sayin who hasn’t seen the field when the Buckeyes were within 40 of their opponent on the scoreboard. As much as Jeremiah is an absolute cheat code, 1 catch for 3 yards against Texas’s excellent zone scheme last year suggests he can be neutralized by their plans. Tate had a day, however, (7 catches, 87 yards) which leads me to believe that WR3 needs to have a big day (Inniss?). Q and Tre also showed up in a big way, and they’re both gone as well, so Peoples and CJ and even Bo Jackson might need a big play or two. In sum, these two are top five programs again for a reason. Talent abounds everywhere. Day should employ a similar game plan for Sayin that CJ Stroud had in his first start against Minnesota in 2021; lots of short/intermediate throws and lots of moving pockets to keep the pressure light. Will Hartline do something similar? One can only hope, but it’s his first time truly with the reins as well. It may get disjointed at times- frankly I’d be surprised if it didn’t. Again, if these squads meet in January, all things the same, I’m likely taking the Buckeyes. But I just can’t do it here. Close, tense, low-scoring. First to 24 would assuredly win it, and I don’t think either team even gets there. Longhorns escape but the Buckeyes’ future looks bright. UT: 20—OSU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Bama (Leeeeerrrrooooooyyyyy Jeeeeennnnnkkkkiinnnssssss)
Hoying: Syracuse over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: UCLA over Utah
Seeberg: Toledo over Kentucky
No comments:
Post a Comment