Tuesday, November 02, 2010

First Release of the Draper index 2010

Here are my computer ranking for the 2010 season after the games of Week 9. Before you go crazy, please realize that this is a work in progress. Things will adjust. I also realize that I must adjust the normalizer because Alabama had such a HUGE lead last year, they maintained a large lead (even under normalization). This will be fixed...although it may not be that crazy to have Bama where they are. Here we go! Enjoy!

Draper Index Top 25 11/2/10
1) Alabama
2) TCU
3) Oregon
4) Auburn
5) Boise State
6) Oklahoma
7) Ohio State
8) Utah
9) Nebraska
10) LSU
11) Iowa
12) Oklahoma State
13) Florida
14) Michigan State
15) Wisconsin
16) Missouri
17) Stanford
18) Arizona
19) Virginia Tech
20) Florida State
21) Texas
22) Arkansas
23) South Carolina
24) Mississippi State
25) Nevada

Here's how I would have voted:
1) Auburn
2) Oregon
3) Alabama
4) Boise State
5) TCU
6) Utah
7) Wisconsin
8) Ohio State
9) Nebraska
10) Stanford
11) Oklahoma
12) Iowa
13) Arizona
14) LSU
15) Michigan State
16) Missouri
17) Virginia Tech
18) South Carolina
19) Oklahoma State
20) Mississippi State
21) Baylor
22) NC State
23) Florida State
24) Arkansas
25) Nevada

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Grading the Bucks Week 9--Minnesota

Another snoozer...but anything less would have been a problem.

Offense: B+
52 points and scoring so many ways...always good, but that interception at the goalline was inexcusable, even against Minn. I LOVE the new Offensive line and the spectacular running of Boom Herron that we've been seeing. I know it's against 2 terrible defenses, but Herron looks better than he ever has. When I say "new" offensive line, I refer to the new mentality of attacking that wasn't there early in the year (or vs. Wisconsin). The energy and push is more than just poor defenses. The O-line looks like they've finally got it going and look forward to punch people in the mouth. Pryor was pretty good passing and running, but the interception at the goalline was horrid. Boren broke open immediately and Pryor had him (I was screaming for him to throw right away) but he waited....and waited....and waited...then threw to the breaking safety. I can't reward that decision with an A.

Defense: A-
The first drive was a disaster. Wide open throwing lanes down the middle was a huge problem. Good news for the Buckeyes is they shored up after that drive and shut down the hapless Gophers. Brian Rolle was killing people left and right and completely trucked Weber. Going forward will be scary for the Buckeyes as the secondary is completely mauled by injury. This isn't too big a deal against Minn or PSU but we need these guys back for Iowa. Without the first drive, this was a solid A. Let's not forget the Jon Simon scoop and score.

Special Teams: B
Another solid outing ruined by one major blemish. A beautiful blocked punt for a score (great effort by Domicone on the recovery), spectacular punt return by Hall (ruined by Pryor's mental mistake), a missed FG by Minn (not blocked but still a victory), and ok kick return and kick coverage (not great--still need to shore that up). Can't comment on the punting because I honestly don't remember if we punted. The black mark this week came via Devin Barclay and a gag from 23 yards out. Tressel made the safe (and correct) call to kick a chip shot FG with a 21 point lead and Barclay whiffed. This is unacceptable at any school let alone tOSU. I can't punish the very nice performances in the punt block/return team for Barclay's gaffe...too much.

Coaching: A- -->B+
Not a whole lot of coaching needed in this one, but it was a well called game. Only one play was really questionable--why do you let Pryor throw at the goalline when Herron was gashing them on the ground? In fact, because it was Minn and this was the only real call, I'm downgrading them to a B+. I was right, then wrong about the running game. I said early on that the coaches needed to 'practice' the run game in a live situation early on because it would be a problem in the future. The coaches didn't listen. When Big Ten play started, I thought it was too late to 'learn' to run and we paid for it against Wisconsin. So far, I pat myself on the back, but then the coaches started 'practicing' the run and the O-line stepped it up. I was wrong that it was too late to learn because Boom is a serious threat as of now. Perhaps we can control the clock more when needed in Kinnick.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Week 9 - Minnesota Sleeper Awaits

Oregon Ducks vs. Southern California Trojans

Gomer: If you've watched any part of a USC game this season, chances are you've seen Lane Kiffin try some stupid stuff, today's a day when I'm perfectly okay cheering for the classless Trojans to upset the classless Ducks. Chip Kelly is a great coach, and Lane Kiffin isn't, so this could come back to bite me in the butt, but I'll buy into the ESPN hype of #1 teams being upset every week. UO: 38--USC: 39

Chief: I hate USC with every inch of my body, but I really want to call this one. Problem is, USC's defense is ungodly awful. They have been chugging on offense lately with pretty boy Matt Barkley, but Monte Kiffin hasn't gotten them to stop anyone. The Oregon offense has steamrolled everyone in their path, and USC won't put up much resistance. Only issue is, can the Trojans outscore the Ducks? I hope so, but I just can't do it. The Coliseum is just worthless. UO: 51--USC: 45

Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Gomer: MSU has shown they are a complete team. From head coach to the punter, they've got everything you need to win a championship. With the clutch, come-from-behind victory over the Wildcats, MSU definitely has the momentum to jump over their last hurdle en route to an outright Big Ten Championship. Go Green! MSU: 24--Iowa: 17

Chief:
Ok, Iowa. This is your last chance. The was THE year for you to get over the hump. Veteran everything and every tough conference game (Wisconsin, MSU, and OSU) was at home. And...you failed. Make it up this week. MSU has been making a living on the edge (OSU 2002 anyone?) but no one really believes in them...including me. The Spartans have gone longer without the textbook collapse than usual, but here it comes. Ricky Stanzi won't screw up as horribly as last week and will lead the Hawkeyes to victory over Sparty. Overrated coach Kirk Ferentz defeats underrated coach Mark Dantonio because Adrian Clayborn will kill Cousins (not due to coaching). MSU: 13--Iowa: 23


Missouri Tigers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Gomer: Nebraska is a much better team and with Taylor Martinez at the helm, the Tigers will struggle to stop the Huskers' attack. When Mizzou: 17--Neb: 28
Chief:
Congrats to the Tigers and a nice little win over the Sooners. It's just like Boise--beat a good team on a single game and desire to be lumped in with the top. Here is where the comparisons stop because they now have to play a second good team (and this one on the road). The Huskers need to get rolling after being bumped by Texas. This will put them back in the talk when they leave the Tigers in Bo Pelini land. Mizzou: 17--Neb: 31


Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Minnesota Gophers
Gomer: OSU: 37--Minn: 10

Chief: That was more like it. Bullets returned to form. Now it's time to take their talents to Minneapolis. Let's make this clear: Minnesota is AWFUL. There is no excuse for a blowout win here. I expect the Gophers to come out firing, but it just won't matter. The Buckeye running game is getting better each week and Sanzenbacher is becoming the number one receiver (needs to happen!!). The Bucks need to come up with a good road game and Minnesota is the perfect team for this to happen. Convincing win is a must. No chance at a sleeper upset. OSU: 41--UM: 10

Other Games:


Georgia vs. Florida Gomer: UF Chief: UGA

Auburn vs. Mississippi Gomer: Aub Chief: Aub

Oklahoma vs. Colorado Gomer: OU Chief: OU

Arizona vs. UCLA Gomer: UCLA Chief: Zona

Stanford vs. Washington Gomer: Wash Chief: Stan

Florida State vs. NC State Gomer:NCSt Chief: FSU

Michigan @ Penn State Gomer: UM Chief: PSU (toughest game to pick but I want UM to lose)

Purdue vs. Illinois Gomer: Pur Chief: Ill

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Grading the Bucks Week 8--Purdue

Great to get back on the smiling side of the scoreboard...in a BIG way

Offense: B
Talk about ramping it up against a terrible defense. The running game under Boom Herron is really starting to develop (I can't believe I'm saying this), but the passing game, and Pryor's complete game is starting to fade which is troubling. Sanzenbacher is proving every week that he is THE receiver, but Pryor still locks onto Posey every play. The scramble seems to have been removed from the playbook as well which could really hurt this team down the stretch, expecially at Iowa. The O-Line is doing better at run-blocking and has stepped up somewhat, but they need to do it consistently. I can't give an A until Pryor gets back on track. I know he threw 2 TDs but those were thanks to a putrid defense.

Defense: A
Talk about a return of the Silver Bullets. A big time shutout (granted it was Purdue) after a total embarassment is HUGE for this defense. I want to give an A+ due to the fact the Purdue hardly scratched onto the Ohio State side of the 50, but the lack of a consistent pass rush is a major concern. As I said last week, Heyward has taken a monster step backward and until we can consistently pressure the quarterback, our banged up secondary will face too much. Injuries are decimating the secondary and a good quearterback will start to pick them apart with this much time. I loved the intensity from the linebackers and safeties but the line needs to get it going. Also, Chekwa has been getting picked on a lot. He needs to plug these gaps in his coverage. Keep an eye on Andrew Sweat who made a big splash starting for the injured Ross Homan.

Special Teams: B-
Well, no kicks returned against us so automatic improvement. Purdue has been horrible returning kicks this year but had minor success against OSU (minor success in that they averaged more yards per return than normal). The kick return unit for the Scarlet and Gray was decent but not spectacular. No missed kicks is always a good thing and the punting was fine this week. If you start at a C, there was little to enact a move up or down.

Coaching: B+
Again, more or less status quo. I give a little boost for the coaches getting these kids ready to play after an embarassing loss in Madison. The team came out with a purpose and delivered. It was clear that Purdue couldn't stop the run so long as we avoided Ryan Kerrigan. Once that was achieved, it was game over. The coaches basically decided to use the KISS method with Pryor (Keep It Simple, Stupid) which seems to be the best strategy. If they keep the intensity rolling, this could be a scary team come January.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Week 8 Picks--D'oh

Oklahoma Sooners @ Missouri Tigers

Gomer: The question is which Oklahoma team will show up in Missouri. Will it be the surprisingly stagnant team that struggled with the Cincinnati Bearcats, or the juggernaut that annihilated my counterpart's Alma Mater? As nice as it would be to see Mizzou introduce a little more chaos to the fun that is college football, the Sooners are a superior team and shouldn't have a problem dispatching the Tigers. OU: 45--Mizzou: 13

Chief:
The Missouri Tigers have quietly put together a very nice little season, but let's be honest, name a team they've beaten (same as played).....What? You don't know? That's right. The Tigers have played a BoiseStateesque schedule thus far and gotten fat off it. Oklahoma had a few close scares vs. Utah State and Cincinnati, but they blew FSU out of the water (and the Noles are pretty good) and defeated a better than believed Texas team. I like the Sooners to roll and take full control of the BCS. OU: 38--Mizzou: 20


Louisiana State Tigers @ Auburn Tigers

Gomer: No question that LSU goes down here, it will be great to see the Tigers (LSU) get exposed, FINALLY! Cam Newton is going to make Les Miles with that he had taken the job in Ann Arbor, where they really care about winning. Ohhhh waiiittt. This is Newton's time to claim the Heisman. LSU: 15--AUB: 34

Chief:
Uh oh, Les...a real team. Miles and the Bayou Bengals have stayed undefeated by being more lucky than good against mediocre competition such as Tennessee and UF (called it last week--GO Miss St). Auburn is a different animal. The explosive offense under the watchful eye of Gene Chizik and suprisingly steady hand of Cam Newton will carry the Tigers (of the Auburn variety) to another big win. The Iron bowl looms... Tigers all the way, no doubt. LSU: 13--Aub: 27


Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Gomer: Well yeahhhhhh the Badgers sure looked good last week didn't they? Well in typical Wisconsin fashion, they will almost certainly lose after experiencing what had to be an awesome high. The Hawks are good when they want to be, but especially when they play at home. UW: 24--Iowa: 35


Chief: Stupid blind squirrel nut theory... The Badgers took a huge one from the number one team last week by feeding off pure emotion. The Buckeyes could have fought back, but instead, cowered in the face of adversity and let themself be pushed around. In Iowa City, the crowd will not be there to power Wisconsin. Expect a hard hitting, low scoring game with Ricky Stanzi scoring a game winning TD late. American flags will drop from the sky and Hulk Hogan will enter the stadium to proclaim Stanzi a "Real American" ans sent the Badgers home crying. UW: 10--Iowa: 17


Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Gomer: Taylor Martinez may have taken a seat last week, and the entire Cornhusker team fell asleep and allowed a shocking loss to the Longhorns, but Bo Pellini won't allow that to happen twice in a row. The Cowboys have quietly risen to #17 in the nation, but their ranking won't save them to the over-powering attack of the 'Huskers. Neb: 31--OSU: 26

Chief:
The Huskers failed their first test on the big stage by falling to their nemeses the Texas Longhorns. They couldn't stop a mediocre (at best) offense in their own house, how will they stop a Gundified offense in the confines of Stillwater. The Pokes and Huskers are similar teams in terms of talent, so I give the edge to the home team with momentum. The Orange Power will rise up and defeat Big Red in what will give the Huskers a fond farewell from the Big 12. Neb: 24--OkSt: 30


Purdue Boilermakers @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes

Gomer: Noon games after a night game have troubled the Buckeyes since the beginning of the decade, regardless of the outcome of the night game held previously. The Buckeyes will probably come out slow and piss off the Ohio Stadium faithful in the early going, it's almost a certainty. Purdue deserves a butt-kicking after last years upset of OSU, but I just don't see it happening, as great as it would be. The Buckeyes will win, but not by as much as everyone expects. PU: 19--OSU: 30


Chief: Revenge is a dish best served cold. The Buckeyes will most likely be serving up large piles of revenge and butt-whoopings on Sat (and they're fresh out of revenge) after teh embarrassment in Madison. The Bullets are horribly banged up, but Purdue just plain stinks. Pryor and the offense will come out firing on all cylinders. The Boilers may sneak a score or 2 on the banged up defense, but the score shouldn't remotely be close. Payback for the embarassment last year on top of the anger from last week spell disaster for Purdue. Pur: 6--OSU: 45


Other Games to Pick

IU @ Ill: Gomer: Ill Chief: Ill

MSU @ NW: Gomer: MSU Chief: MSU

AF @ TCU: Gomer: TCU Chief: AF

ND vs. Navy Gomer: ND Chief: ND

PSU @ Minn: Gomer: PSU Chief: PSU

KSU @ Baylor: Gomer: KSU Chief: Baylor

UNC @ Miami: Gomer: Miami Chief: Miami

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Grading the Bucks Week 7--Wisconsin

Well, that certainly sucked. I have never seen an OSU defensive line get dominated like this past Saturday.

Offense: D
The offense was pedestrian the entire game. Terrelle had enough time to do the entire team's taxes in the pocket and still couldn't find an open receiver. The passes were off target, the play calling was horrid, and the execution was awful. The only positive in the game was Boom Herron's running which took a giant leap forward. I would have never imagined we would get back into the game through our runningbacks, but they proved me wrong. When the game was on the line, the unit didn't deliver. Sloppy and disinterested were the words of the day.

Defense: D-/F
Pathetic performance by the Bullets...if you can call them that. The defensive line showed no heart and was pushed all over the field. The first quarter, they couldn't hold Wisconsin (a pedestrian offense at best) to a single play which resulted in less than a 5 yard game. Chekwa was picked on all game and never rose to the challenge. I know Wisconsin has fat O-Linemen, but the Buckeyes let themselves be pushed away and run over. We knew Wisconsin was going to run with Clay and we couldn't stop it. It was strength on strength and we were dominated. The lack of intensity on the defensive side was also painful apparent. A leader must emerge and I don't see one. Cam Heyward has been a major disappointment and has most likely lost millions by not going pro last year. I'm hoping his lack of production is due to constant double-teaming...but I'm not convinced that's it. When the offense woke up and brought the team back into striking distance, the defense couldn't prevent the knockout blow on the final Badger drive...that's where championships are won.

Special Teams: F
Sorry boys...you suck. Many pundits continue to point to the final score and say "They didn't lose because of the kick return to start the game since they lost by 13." I'm here to say, that's BS. Momentum is HUGE in college sports, especially on the road. OSU came in looking to put the hammer down and prove their superiority. Wisconsin needed to prove to themselves that they had a shot...and the kick return gave them the hope and belief. You could see the energy rise and the drunken multitudes in the stands erupted into a frenzy when the Badgers showed they were here to win not to lose close as well as the deflation and skepticism introduced onto the Buckeye sideline. Let's not also forget the missed field goal in the first half. Had that been converted, the comeback ties the game and puts a whole new spin.

Coaching: C-
The Badgers clearly decided to roll the dice and go reverse of most defenses vs. OSU and stop the pass. They consistently dropped into coverage befuddling Pryor into indecision. I will admit that the coach's decision to move to the ground game in the second half surprised me and was a sound decision (even though I doubted at the time). My main problems were the lack of inspiration and hope the coaches were showing. Every time Wisconsin responded or scored, they looked deflated and defeated...and that was passed on to the team. Perhaps the most glaring coaching deficiency was on the Buckeye's FG drive in the 1st half. 1st and goal inside the 5 led to 3 straight runs (Pryor, Herron, Pryor) to no effect. This is unacceptable from a coach. Wisconsin was handed more momentum and a 4 point greater lead (FG instead of a TD) because Tressel went beyond uber-conservative. Listen, conservative is fine but that drive needed a touchdown. The playcalling wasn't as conservative as it was unimaginative. QB Blast, HB Blast, QB Blast....this isn't UF and Pryor isn't Tebow. The Badger coaches looked as surprised and elated as the Buckeye fans looked befuddled. A roll-out run pass option with one of the best dual threats in the game; a PA fade; a counter run by the halfback...SOMETHING DIFFERENT!! Victory goes to the bold, not the scared.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Week 7 Picks--That was interesting

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines


Gomer: The book on stopping Denard Robinson is out... make him pass. Hopefully this doesn't turn into Juice Williams where everyone talks about how bad a passer he is all year long and then he throw's 4 TD's against the Buckeyes. Iowa is fresh off of a bye week and should have no problem dominating the Wolverines this week. Iowa: 28--UM: 7


Chief: This one is a layup. The Wolverines ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE! The defense is atrocious and the offense is completely dependent on Denard Robinson. Robinson is no leader and will soon lose his team as he trumpets his own praise more than anyone. I know Pryor is central to the Bucks, but there is still talent around him...not in Ann Arbor. Captain America (Ricky Stanzi) will bring a win back to the heartland. "If you don't love it, leave it. USA number 1!!" Iowa: 38--UM: 17


Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers


Gomer: Nebraska's Taylor Martinez is going to make the Heisman race very interesting after another strong performance against the Longhorns. Texas hasn't impressed me whenever I've had the chance to watch. The real question is whether Mack Brown sees the writing on the wall, or wants to wait around for the Longhorns to reload.

Chief: Here's the coveted rematch of last year's nailbiter of a Big 12 Championship. Unfortunately, for the Longhorns, Colt is about to be killed in Pittsburgh. The Huskers defense lost a step with the loss of Suh, but the emergence of Martinez and the resurgence of the option attack in Lincoln keep the excitement high. Texas is a shell of what they've been in the last ten or so years. It will take time to get back. UT is falling away and Neb is on the rise...just in time to join the Big Ten. UT: 13--Neb: 27


Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers


Gomer: Look for Ryan Mallett to (re) jump start his Heisman campaign with this game. This has the potential to be a MUCH better game than Ohio State - Wisconsin, but I know I've had enough SEC shoved down my throat by ESPN and CBS in recent weeks. Newton and the Auburn offense will have the home crowd behind them as the Razorbacks manage to pull the upset. Ark: 33--AU: 30

Chief: Second best game of the week. Auburn has been the 'an ugly win is still a win team' which is well and good...so long as you never lose. Arkansas has ridden Mallet to a near upset of Bama and a win over UGA (yawn). I do like Cam Newton in Auburn but they certainly leave a lot to be desired...on the road. With the game in Jordan-Hare, I give the edge to the Tigers. Remember, they beat the Gamecocks at home who then went on the upset Bama. Ark: 24--Aub: 27


Illini Fighting Illini @ Michigan State Spartans

Gomer: The Spartans are ripe for an upset coming off a HUGE, third straight, win, over their arch-nemesis, the University of Michigan. The Illini are coming off a big win at Penn State and have looked strong, even in the loss to the Bucks a couple weeks ago. MSU is a superior team, and has superior coaching, Ron Zook... is Ron Zook. There is no reason for Sparty to lose this one, and they won't. UI: 14--MSU: 34

Chief: This is on here as a warning. I was sooooo close to calling the Illinois upset of PSU last week and wish I had pulled the trigger. MSU pulled a huge emotional win on the road over rival UM last week in a game in which Sparty usually chokes. The Spartans are usually good for half a year then reality sets in. I believe Dantonio has this team far more focused than in the past. Illinois could have snuck this one if they hadn't woken up the green and white by smashing PSU in Happy Valley. MSU keeps it rolling at home, but it will be close. Ill: 17--MSU: 26


The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Gomer: Here comes 7-0. People who are picking the upset just don't get it. Ohio State is the class of the Big Ten, everybody. It isn't even close. The Badgers used to be a thorn in the side of Jim Tressel, but ever since Barry Alvarez left the Badgers, it hasn't been much of an issue. To make this almost certain victory a reality, the Buckeyes must establish the run, and hopefully they will. OSU: 28--UW: 13

Chief: The game of the week is in Madison. Wisconsin had a nice performance against the hapless Gophers but the defense was spotty. The Bucks put together what I considered to be their most complete performance of the year against the Hoosiers. I know it was IU but they're better than most people think (6-6 or 7-5). OSU showed a little problem on the road as the playcalling was super conservative, but I haven't seen anything from the Badger defense that concerns me. Bullets stuff John Clay for 85 yrds and the Bucks exit Madison for Pryor's second win in Camp Randall. OSU: 31--Wisc: 20


Other Games to Pick

OrSt @ Wash--Gomer: Wash Chief: Wash

BC @ FSU--Gomer: FSU Chief: FSU

ArkSt @ Ind--Gomer: Ind Chief: Ind

Minn @ Pur--Gomer: Pur Chief: Pur

EMU @ Ball--Gomer: Ball Chief: Ball

MissSt @ UF--Gomer: UF Chief: MissSt

OkSt @ TT--Gomer: OkSt Chief: OkSt

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Grading the Buckeyes Week 6--Indiana

Another game vs. the Hoosiers, another Buckeye win. This might have been the most complete, dominant game by this Buckeye team yet. Very few mistakes and quality football--but it was IU...

Offense: A-
Pryor looked great in the pocket and found the open receiver 9 times out of 10...and they were WIDE OPEN. The run game actually got moving a bit with Boom on the draw as well which is good to see. My favorite part of the gameplan was the move of Brandon Saine to (essentially) a slot receiver. I truly believe that Saine has the better football attributes but he's just not getting it done from running back. He's a steller receiver and showed it this week. I dropped them from an A because of the gameplan. It was blatently clear that Pryor was told running was unacceptable. I understand they wanted to protect him, but he must run next week. Pryor looked great, but some 3rd downs were handed to Pryor on a scramble and he shunned them (definitely called from the coaches). We still converted because IU is awful but take what the defense gives you. Carlos Hyde's fumble at the goalline also hurts, but it was mopup time.

Defense: A-
IU moved the ball very well against the horrid UM defense and they appeared to be pretty solid offensively. This looked like a test for the Bullets after a little shakiness recently, and they took the challenge and blew it up. The defense held the Hoosiers on their side of the field for most of the game, forced turnovers, and totally shut a pretty decent offense down. The secondary played well with a few picks and the pressure worked out well. The garbage TD was a little ugly, but it was backups...but they are still part of the defense.

Special Teams: A-
Nothing heard which makes it a good day. Some will complain about the FG block but I put that on the coaches. No reason to try a 53 yd FG with a kicker who has already shown he can't get the ball up high enough for the bombs. Tough task to ask a freshman kicker to kick a 50+ yarder for his 1st and 2nd attempts. Coverage team looked great, return game was pretty good, and the punting game was very good.

Coaching: B+
I went a little lower because of the FG call...still think that was stupid. Loved the playcalling. Perhaps Tressel read my recommendation of 70-30 passing/running breakdown and he took it to heart. The run blocking is still weak but the draw play worked well (since they can just tell the line it's a pass--o-lineman aren't too bright). Pass blocking, QB vision, WR routes, and RB blocking was excellent (I know it was IU) so utilize it. I wish they let Pryor run a little. IU gave it to him and he didn't take it. I respect keeping him healthy, but he needs to run next week.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Week 6--Conference Grind

Alabama Crimson Tide @ South Carolina Gamecocks

Gomer: Once again, one of these "oooo maybe something will happen" match-ups. Sorry, Alabama is the real deal. They may let you think for a while that your team has a chance at the upset, and then they pull the carrot away teasing you incessantly for honestly believing they would lose a game. The run game of Alabama will do the trick against the always-pesky Gamecocks. Bama: 35--SC: 17

Chief: Another big time game for the Tide on the road against a team who had a bye to rest up and prepare...something Saban's boys better get used to as 6 of their next 7 opponents (I believe) have a bye before the Tide. The Cocks have looked pretty good this year and certainly provide another big test for the number one team. They went to the wire against Auburn at Jordan-Hare but Bama is a different animal. The atmosphere in Colombia will be rocking and those fans are just nuts, but the Tide's discipline will carry through. I see a close game, but Garcia/Spurrier will make one mistake late to quell the upset. Bama: 27--SC: 23


Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines

Gomer: Very interested to see if the Wolves can survive this year's rivalry game with those pesky Spartans. Kirk Cousins is a questionable quarterback at best, as most MSU QB's tend to be. I have no idea how Michigan will stop the rushing attack of the Spartans, but if they want to force Cousins mistakes, they have to. Denard Robinson may be slowed, but he will not be completely contained. 6 games in, the Heisman Trophy will still be his to lose. MSU: 24--UM: 35

Chief: Here we go Michigan. Put up or shut up. If you want to be taken seriously, this is your chance. I will give credit where credit is due if you can pull off a win vs. a decent team. Robinson has been stunning, but against defenses kept out of the basement by the Wolverines ineptness(Basically, I'm slamming UM's defense). MSU has All American Greg Jones and a stout disciplined team under Dantonio. I think they band together and pull off a huge win for Sparty using fundamental football and smart playcalling vs. the flash of RichRod and Robinson. UM's defense makes Kirk Cousins look Heismanesque and Sparty retains Paul Bunyan's Trophy. MSU: 42--UM: 31


LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators

Gomer: I don't ever cheer for Florida, but I am completely okay with a Gator win in this SEC match-up. Les Miles is a freaking idiot. I have students who could do a better job coaching than him, and they don't understand football. The Gators get back on the winning track... for now. LSU: 14--UF: 33

Chief: Derpy derpy derp....that's Les Miles speak for 'How much time is left?' This is where the dumb luck runs out for Les. The Tigers are probably the most fortunate 5-0 team (and I'm including the defenseless Wolverines). They have survived in spite of rather than due to coaching. The Gators where absolutely smashed last week by a much better team. UF will have 2-3 losses by the end of the year, but the Swamp will carry them to a big one here. LSU: 13--UF: 31


Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes

Gomer: Miami will continue to be the 2010 version of the 2002 Washington State Cougars and help the Buckeyes strength of schedule with a big win against the arch-rival Seminoles. Jacory Harris will undoubtedly throw a few arm-punts in this game making FSU think they have a chance, but seriously when was the last time that happened? This game used to matter, and wouldn't you know it, moving rivalry games lessens their importance. Gene Smith sucks. FSU: 21--UM: 38

Chief: Maybe this game is back to some level of relevance. It's been a while since these teams mattered on a national scale, and it's still not a game of national importance...but it's getting there. There's a really good chance that this is the preview of the ACC Championship Game (the one that the conference was set up to have even though it's never happened). VT still needs to prove they can make a statement to oust these teams. FSU is back to form after the embarrassment in Norman and Ponder should be able to move the ball. Harris is still too interception prone to put the Noles away. FSU has the edge at QB so I'm going with them winning on the road (did you really expect me to pick Miami?). Jimbo is bringing his talents to South Beach! FSU: 27--UM: 23


Indiana Hoosiers @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes

Gomer: The Hoosiers may bring a high-power offense to Columbus, but that doesn't mean this game will be a shootout. The Silver Bullets will look to post their first shutout of the season, but it may be a struggle again. Like Chief, I thought it was fairly certain the Bucks would post one at Illinois, but for whatever reason some weird stuff started happening. I think Tressel is going to be very cautious using Pryor this week which will mean more chances for the stable of running backs to prove themselves. IU: 9--OSU: 41

Chief: Alright Bucks. Another mediocre road win but a win nonetheless. The weather played a factor, but the performance was not up to the Buckeye standards. It will be good to get the team home before the trip to Madison. IU is a much better offensive team behind the arm of Ben Chapell than Illinois but their defense is atrocious. Expect the Hoosiers to score, but to give up much more. Michigan actually gave the blueprint to the Buckeyes on how to beat IU: Rush 2 and drop 9. The IU offensive line is no good but Chapell can pick you apart (even in a few seconds) unless no one is open. The soft rush will get there before a receiver gets open. Also, cover number 2 (Ross?) because he's their only real threat at receiver. The banged up secondary needs some game time to get ready for Wisky. The mantra for the game (this one and all) is: Win...but for the love of God, DON'T LET PRYOR GET HURT!! IU: 13--OSU: 45


Other Games

Minn @ Wisc: Gomer: Wisc Chief: Wisc

BC @ NCSt: Gomer: BC Chief: NCSt

Ill @ PSU: Gomer: PSU Chief: PSU (close)

BGSU @ Ohio: Gomer: OU Chief: BGSU

OrSt @ Zona: Gomer: Zona Chief: Zona (big)

Pur @ NW: Gomer: Purdue Chief: NW

USC @ Stan: Gomer: Stan Chief: Stan

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

5 Things We've Learned--Week 5

1) The SEC has the WORST coaches in the league


I know SECSPN would rip me for this but it's the truth. There is immense talent in that league without a doubt and I would never say something bad about Saban (for fear of my life--note: he's the exception), but this weekend was an embarassment of coaching in that league. It's gotten to the point where the coaches (and interested media partners--looking at you worldwide leader---and CBS) spend more time talking up the conference to create a false excuse for the horrible blunders from the sideline. Les Miles finishes a game for which he should be fired and his comment is "Just another day in the SEC." I guess one interpretation would be a slam on the mediocrity of the conference and horrid coaching (sans Bama).


Let's start with the minor infraction by a coach considered 'one of the best', Mr. Urban Meyer. The Gator's have been the poster child of the SEC for the last 5 years or so (Praise Tebow), but their time has come and there's a new leader in town. The torch was passed last year in the SEC championship to the Tide. The beatdown in Tuscaloosa was more evidence of this phenomenon. Regardless of this transition, Meyer doesn't want to let go of Tebow. You know the play to which I'm referring. 4th and goal, 1st quarter, down 7-0 and Meyer calls the Tebow special: the jump pass. Look, I think the right call was to take the points, but if you want to go for it, fine. Worst case scenario is Bama gets the ball on the 1...or not. Jump pass is read by the Bama coaches before the play and Trey Burton (termed Tebow-Lite...tipping your hand maybe?) throws the pick in the endzone to not only give up the points, but also gives Bama favorable field position. Urban needs to realize that they need to play with an underdog mentality again even though it's been 40 games since they've been the underdog.


Now, to the abomination of the weekend. Baton Rouge featured the showdown for dumbest coach in America (won by the well-known Derek Dooley--who?). I was so excited when I saw Les Miles ineptitude bite him by substituting his whole offense with 10 seconds to go, snapping before the team was set, recovering the fumble, and the clock expiring. Hooray! He got his comeuppance....but wait. Dooley and his assistants sent 13 Vols on the field for the final play of ineptitude. Note: these extra defenders didn't influence the play at all. Dooley hands Miles another untimed down on which they score to end the game. In the words of Jerry Palm, CBS writer, "It's hard to out-dumb Les Miles, but if you don't put your mind to it, it can be done. Without referring to the myraid official failures on this play (1. not staying over the ball until UT had a chance to substitute which is allowed by rule, 2. not calling the personal foul for the LSU player spiking his helmet after his coach screwed them, perhaps I should stop there), both of these coaches better get either fired or severely questioned by their alumni/athletic director. Dooley is almost certainly an interim coach after the Lane Kiffin debaucle, but Miles better watch it.



2) The Heisman race is not over regardless of the media's perception



Watching ESPN and reading all kinds of coverage of college football, the 2010 Heisman Trophy has already been engraved with Denard Robinson. While he is absolutely the frontrunner (undefeated team, stunning video game numbers, dual threat QB, leadership, etc.), it is the first week of October.


What if Robinson trips over a curb tomorrow and breaks a leg? He's out.

He is the UM offense so he takes a ton of hits. What if he breaks when someone catches him (which most likely will happen)? He's out.

What if they play a real defense that knows how to tackle (see the next...oh 7 weeks)? He's out.

What if his team hits a losing skid and ends the season 6-6 or 7-5 (very possible)? He's out.

What if another candidate has a great stretch that sends his team into the title talk? He's out.



There is way too much time to call this a done deal when there are so many different scenarios still to come.



3) Everyone blaming the BCS for Boise's falling need to critically examine the situation instead of the knee jerk reaction.


So many people in the media have ambushed the AP poll and the coaches poll for jumping Oregon over Boise in the latest poll. Oregon has the best win outside of Bama of those high ranked teams and are deserving of jumping as high as 2 in the latest poll (this coming from a Buckeye fan). By saying this, I want to temper the statement by saying if OSU goes to Wisconsin and Iowa and wins both of those (impressively or not), they will deserve to jump back to number 2--Bama is still 1 until they lose, they've earned it.

Most of the talk I hear is centered on the 'outrage' that Boise can get jumped while thumping the horrid teams in their conference. Many blame the BCS to find an outlet that is in no way related to the argument. With or without the BCS, ordering happens based on who you beat and how you beat them. That's the nature of ordering. A playoff is supposed to heal all wounds in this scenario, but what happens if 2 non-conference champions round out the top 8? Right now it's Boise and TCU in the playoff. Are you suggesting that an uproar wouldn't come from Arizona, Michigan (State and Wolverines), Oklahoma, and the multitude of undefeated teams...not to mention the one loss teams vs. the top opponents? The sad truth is that every system misses something. A playoff makes us feel good about Boise and gives them 'their shot' but do they deserve a shot? Of course! Do they deserve it over many other teams? Not as clear.

My major point of contention is that the same people 'up in arms' about this are those who rail against preseason rankings for their 'bias' and affect on the championship picture. Let's look at it critically. Boise was number 3 in the preseason and everyone complained that they have no chance to jump into the top 2 without a top 2 team losing because of the horrible, evil, very-bad, no-good, rotten pollsters who vote with the sole intention of screwing Idaho. Yet, these same people say how wrong it is for an accomplished Oregon team who beat a good Stanford team to jump a Boise St. that has no wins of that caliber. It's a ludicrous double standard. If you want Boise to have the opportunity for moving up based on their body of work, they must also have the ability to move down based upon their body of work. The sad truth is this: Boise's does not have a win as good as any team above them (yes, OSU's win over Miami is better than Boise's over VT by a hair). The sadder truth is that they will not have a better win by season's end as their next best game is against the powerhouse Wolfpack of Nevada (I'm aware they played Oregon State and I stand by my statement).

Here's my solution. Keep the preseason rankings. They're fun and always a point of contention. But from week to week, the voters (coaches, media, and Harris) must be willing to allow the poll to fluctuate based on the entire body of work. The idea of you own the position until you lose is outdated and must go...unfortunately, there's about zero chance of that happening so we'll have to keep arguing here.

4) Conference rankings are garbage

I'm so sick of everyone's absolutely defiant opinions about which conference is the best. Here it is, the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth: NO CONFERENCE IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN ANOTHER IN THE BIG 4 (SEC, Pac 10, Big 12, Big Ten)--sorry Big East, you're terrible and sorry ACC but you just don't have the juggernaut this year--very competitive, but no standout. The Big 12 is hanging on by a thread with OU and Nebraska but Texas is really hurting.

The SEC is the de facto because they've been top heavy these last few years with Alabama and Florida (and LSU a few years back). Now, it's Bama at the top, UF, Ark, LSU, SC, and Aub in the ok but still haven't proved anything yet, and the rest is trash. The Big Ten has OSU at the top, Iowa, Wisc, MSU, UM, PSU, and NW in the ok but nothing proven and trash. The Big 12 is pretty much OU and Neb with some stragglers (what happened to Texas). And finally, the Pac 10 is getting way too much love...more to come (see point 5). Stop trying to order them because each conference has it's goods, oks, and citgos (bad). Just enjoy the game and see which team plays harder and comes out on top.





5) West Coast bias is starting to cloud judgement...yeah...you heard me.

I'm sure some people will come down on me here but I'm gonna say it. Slow down on the Pac10 talk. They've joined the party, but nothing special. Top to bottom, the Pac 10 has a very good Oregon team with a dynamic offense (and no defense); a good Stanford team that will only go as far as Luck takes them; a stout Arizona team that is the only team out there that plays defense (and will still play a major factor in the conference); and....well not much else. USC was gutted by sanctions and have already shown vulnerabilities; UCLA went on the road and exposed Texas (good win) but lost to Kansas St.; Washington beat USC in their house but got destroyed out of conference; Oregon St is the most overrated of them all getting beat by TCU and Boise (good teams) but catching them on bad nights--not to mention squeaking by Louisville at home; Cal got smoked by Nevada; Arizona St. had a stellar special teams unit they gave them a chance to pull off the upset in Madison but fell short with no offense; and Washington St is a train wreck.

All the 'east coast' reporters are quick to laud the Pac 10's 'reemergence' as the 'second best conference'. They're just pandering to the crowd to show how they've always been a supporter (false) so more people will read their column. This refers to point 4: this brought them back into the top tier, but can you really say they're better? The answer is no.

Sunday, October 03, 2010

Grading the Bucks Week 5--Illinois

Way to close Buckeyes. Sloppy game and yet...5-0

Offense: C
After having their way against Eastern Michigan (which they should have), the Buckeyes looked a bit shellshocked on the road. After I emphasized practicing the run against suck MAC opponents, we saw Saturday why I wanted that so badly. Tressel decided it was time to prove we can run in the Big Ten...and he failed. Our offensive line is exceptional at pass blocking (as we've seen all year) but looks like a bunch of old women when run blocking. They can't move defenders backward; they can't open holes; it's just no good for Big Ten play. We saw that the lack of run game development (including the runningbacks as Saine and Herron didn't do the line any favors) could cost the Bucks in the Big Ten. I fully expect Tressel to go back to the pass first offense in the future. Look for a more west coast offense as dropback passing game seemed successful (except when Posey drops easy passes) and the shotgun scramble is the best option running too--Pryor is our only runningback. We also saw that if Pryor goes down, it's 'bad news bears'. Kenny Guiton needs more reps for backup potential if the turf monster returns. It was on the road, but c'mon man.

Defense: B-
Many spoke to the defense as the focal point of the Buckeyes win, but I wasn't terribly impressed. Many of the defense's successes were directly caused by Illini failures. The Bullet secondary gave up some open passes but it seemed that Illinois had a case of the dropsies to help out. The adjustments were not made very well to cover number 11 (Fayson) when it was clear that he was the only serious receiving threat. Also, the run defense wasn't nearly as solid as we've come to expect. They were opportunistic and presented the bend-don't-break mentality that seems to be the norm, but I'd prefer the shut 'em down mentality. Illini showed that OSU will get every teams best shot, and they'd better be ready. Next week might actually be a tougher test so bring the wood. IU can throw the ball very well but we're back at home.

Special Teams: B
And the best grade goes to....the special teams?!? What happened? Well, to be honest, nothing happened...and that's a big time improvement. No missed kicks, no blocked kicks, no big returns. I'll take it. Why not an A for this unit? Can anyone answer? It has nothing to do with our mediocre return game...it's Jim Tressel's most important position, that is simply not very good. Ben Buchanan had a bad day punting which is not good for any Tressel team. He had a few punts that went about 30 yards which is just not acceptable. This is a big time concern for the unit. Buchanan has had better days but he needs to get it going in a hurry.

Coaching: B-
It's a week late coaches. I've been telling you to practice the run because it didn't work in the 20 or so carries a game vs. the MAC. The kinks had to be worked out before Big Ten play because you can't fix problems on the road in the Big Ten...even against the Illini. It's plainly clear that it's time to go 70-30 in passing plays to run plays--where Pryor scrambles/runs on 15% or so of the dropbacks. The O-Line blocks so well for Pryor so keep pushing. Defensively was a little timid, but no real problems. Injuries are certainly tough on this D.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Week 5 picks--Conference time

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Gomer: I'm mentally prepared for a dud of a rivalry game in this year's version of the Red River Rivalry. I desperately wish I had the balls to pick against Texas last week, I had a hunch, but was fearful of embarrassment. I was also convinced that OU would have no problem covering the -14.5 spread against the lowly Bearcats. What I'm trying to say is, your guess is as good as mine. I'm calling for the motivated upset... UT: 27--OU: 25

Chief: I'm not seeing anything to get excited about with this installment of the Red River Shootout. Even before Texas was embarrassed last week at home by UCLA, I was looking at OU coming out on top of this one. Granted, OU struggled on the road against UC (bad), but I expect Demarco Murray to run all over this Longhorn team. Not expecting a nailbiter here but crazier things have happened. UT: 10--OU: 38

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans

Gomer: Talk about a tossup. Both teams are very evenly matched and similarly constructed as they go head-to-head in Big Ten battle this Saturday. This might be a very short game as the run games should prove to be prevalent in this match-up. I think the motivation of Mark Dantonio's heart-attack and absence will give Sparty the extra edge. UW: 26--MSU: 34

Chief: Big Ten play starts after some pretty easy tune-ups for both of these squads. Wisconsin has underperformed this year by most views but are 4-0 nonetheless. On the other hand, the Spartans have been a bright spot. The heartstopping (literally) OT win over the Irish was a big statement, but I'm not impressed with their offense under Kirk Cousins. Wisconsin got the offense going in a big way last week (granted against a very terrible opponent). I expect a big day on the ground for John Clay. MSU keeps it close but not enough. UW: 27--MSU: 17

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon Ducks


Gomer: The home crowd in Autzen might be the difference for this massively important game. Would a win by either of these teams be enough to help jump Boise State, or even our beloved Buckeyes? Possibly, but the computers will have more of a say on that topic later this season. I've thought for years that Oregon's offense was a disaster waiting to happen, and there always seems to be one game a year when it just sputters and putts along, not able to come through when needed. Stanford's defense looked solid, but against Notre Dame. Oregon will be stopped eventually, but not Saturday night. Stanford: 25--Oregon: 38


Chief: Clearly, this is the standout game of the weekend. I tabbed the Cardinal (tentatively) to take the Pac 10 this year and they have yet to disappoint. Oregon has exploded offensively this year even with the loss of Jeremiah Masoli. Being in Eugene and Autzen Stadium is a HUGE advantage to the Ducks, but I'm sticking with my preseason pick. Luck has been fantastic and Coach Harbaugh has his players believing big things. The Stanford theme this year is "Win with class and cruelty". I love it. Stanford: 34--Oregon: 30

Florida Gators @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Gomer: Finally the Gators will be exposed by a good team. Alabama and Ohio State are the cream of the crop in NCAA Football this year, and the Tide shouldn't have a problem disposing of the fumble-happy, Tebow-less, Florida Gators. I should be pulling for the Gators for the sheer fact it gives the Buckeyes the #1 spot, but seriously, screw Florida. UF: 13--Bama: 30

Chief: While these two programs have had 2 epic meetings over the last two seasons, this is the first regular season meeting in awhile. The Tide rolls in (get it!) after a scare on the road in Arkansas, but I think they'll have their heads on straight this time (or Saban will murder a kitty). The UF offense got moving last week (against Kentucky) with their new wildcat QB Burton. While he broke Tebow's record of 6 TDs in a game, he is no Tebow. McElroy, Ingram, and Richardson will do enough against the Gator D to outscore a shutdown Gator offense. Bama: 17--UF: 9

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Gomer: Penn State's lack of an offense will be exposed again. I remember a couple years back when the Nits were upset by the Hawks, but the Lions just aren't that good this year. Iowa has looked somewhat shaky at times, but they are more balanced team with experience at QB and on defense. PSU: 16--Iowa: 27

Chief: Didn't know where to put this one, but hey, it's a Big Ten opener, so let's talk. Most of you know my opinion of PSU this year (citgo--bad for those not up on Common Man and the Torg) so this one is easy for me. The Hawkeyes played angry last week shutting out the Cardinals. Expect more of the same. Penn State doesn't have the horses on either side to pull off the upset in Kinnick. Sorry JoePa. PSU: 13--Iowa: 31

The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Gomer: The Illini are trash. While they did have a bye week to prepare for the Buckeyes, there really is zero realistic chance for the Buckeyes to lose this one... didn't we say that last year about Purdue? Anyway, the Buckeyes begin their "Farewell Road Tour" of Big Ten coaches on their way out. Coming up later in October, Tim Brewster. OSU: 54--Illinois: 14

Chief: Bucks enter Big Ten play on the road for their first test away from the Shoe all year. I don't expect anything special from an inept Illini team, but Zook has pulled off crazier upsets in the past. The defense took the first half off last week and they know they need to perform better this week. Not really seeing another 73 spot from TP, but the offense will score early and often. Keep it rolling. OSU: 41--Ill: 9

Other Games to Pick

Miami (FL) @ Clemson: Gomer: UM Chief: UM

NW @ Minn: Gomer: NW Chief: NW

Ohio @ EMU: Gomer: OU Chief: OU

UM @ Ind: Gomer: UM Chief: UM

VT @ NCState: Gomer: NCSU Chief: VT (This one is tough)

Notre Dame @ BC: Gomer: ND Chief: ND