Week 6: Eyes on Columbus

Standings:

1.) Hoying 15-5 (1-4 upset)
2.) Seeberg 14-6 (1-4 upset)
2.) Draper 14-6 (1-4 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 13-7 (1-4 upset)

As the saying goes, they can't all be bangers. After a September chock full of top-level matchups, this week provides a bit of a palate cleanser before a sick two-week run of season-defining showdowns. But any time the Bucks take the field, and TCUN have a better-than-average shot at taking another L, we're here for it.

Missouri Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: While we enter the week of 'meh', there are a couple of interesting games (even if not great ones).  The intrigue here is finding some data on the questions 'Is Missouri ready for the next step?' and 'Will TAMU ever be for-real good?'  The Aggies have been nothing but predictable in their faceplants (see every game over the past 10 years when they were expected to make the leap), but Mizzou has really struggled this year.  Kyle Field may have goofy cheerleaders but it's an intimidating place to play.  I'm not buying that the Tigers are here to stay.  Gimme the home team.  Mizzou: 20--TAMU: 24
Hoying: Top ten (?) Missouri visits ranked (??) Texas A&M. In the future, we won't need the AP top 25 anymore; we'll just take the top 13 SEC teams and shuffle them into the top 12 of the B1G and call it a day. Credit the Tigers for making it out of September unscathed but skating by Boston College and SEC Rutgers (go Dores) in back-to-back games isn't going to move the needle for me. On the home side, it hasn't been too long since Florida vs. A&M was billed as the battle for the SEC basement, and all the Aggies have done since winning that pillow fight is squeeze by Bowling Green and skate by Arkansas on a 4th quarter go-ahead TD. All of Jed Clampett's Texas Tea NIL couldn't buy A&M a serviceable QB this year, and the defense has only been OK. This is another game in which both teams are just begging to get tagged after lackluster play, and this time I think the reversion bug catches up to...A&M. That pedestrian offense just isn't going to get it done again the Tigers (don't ask me how I know). Mizzou: 20--TAMU: 16
Schweinfurth: I don't know what to think about TAMU. They were ranked pretty high coming in, but I can't shake the thought that they were way overrated. This Mizzou team isn't the same one that beat up on a helpless Ohio State team last year, but I still think they are decent. In reality, this feels like two overrated SEC teams battling it out. I'll go with my gut and say Mizzou here. Mizzou: 21--TAMU: 10
Seeberg: Mediocre slate this week but boy is next week a doozy.  Oddly, Missouri is probably a slightly better Notre Dame.  We all know how that went for the Aggies.  I wouldn't expect them to muster too many points in this one either, certainly not enough to win.  Mizzou: 24--TAMU: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Washington Huskies

Draper: I don't know....I just have no idea what to make of TTUN.  Washington is a complete shell of the 2023 version, but UM is essentially the same....without a QB or WR... The ineptitude on offense is painful on the maize and blue sideline, but they keep finding a way for Kalel to transform into superman a few times a game.  The Wolverines are inefficient, bland, boring, and predictable on offense....but the defense can hold it down.  I'm honestly shocked that the Huskies are favored in this game despite the failures on the offensive side for TTUN, but I just don't know how they're going to score points.  The Seattle crowd needs to be a factor to bring the revenge tour out of the Huskies, but I don't think they can do it.  It's going to be gross, low scoring, and boring, but one big play makes the difference.....they can't keep getting away with this... UM: 13--UW: 10
Hoying: You can ask me how far a team can go without a functional offense. I can tell you that I came of age during the early Tressel years (which included 2 BCS bowl wins and a National Championship) and have watched with fascination and slight intestinal discomfort as Iowa has racked up 10-win seasons under Ferentz again and again and again. Sometimes, when you're an elite program, you can just rely on a great player to make a great play, whether it's on offense (Kalel Mullings against USC), defense (Will Johnson against...USC), or special teams (props to whoever baited that Minnesota gunner to pretend to be offsides on the onside kick). Of course, none of this would matter if the home team had maintained any kind of continuity from last year's title run, but losing a star QB, top WR, and practically the entire O-line hasn't worked out any better for Washington than their erstwhile national championship opponent. Amazingly, the Huskies appear to be the better team on paper, with the advanced stats and the bookies giving the home team a slight edge. But I've seen this movie too many times already. Michigan will get out to an early lead as its opponent somehow fails to gameplan for the total of 5 plays the Wolverine ground game is capable of executing, then the Wolverine D will start to break down in the second half before the maize and blue white knuckle out another unsatisfying victory. UM: 17--UW: 16
Schweinfurth: What kind of Houdini act did the Wolverinies pull last week? Get up to a lead and then pay off the refs get lucky on an offside call. Orji cannot throw the ball downfield. That part of TUN's game does not exist this year. At. All. Washington can and will load up the box, I'm just no sure it will matter. The blue team figured out that Donovan Edwards isn't a lead back (hurray NCAA25 cover athlete!). This will be an ugly rock fight. UM: 7--UW: 6
Seeberg: The fact that unranked Washington is favored over (stifles a giggle) top 10 Michigan tells you all you need to know about how good the Wolverines actually are.  Nonetheless, the Huskies are an even further cry from last year's playoff team than the maize and blue.  This one won't be pretty, both stylistically and for the fact that UM will bleh to another win.  Ugh.  UM: 16--UW: 10

Iowa Hawkeyes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: Honestly, the line here surprised me as well.  I don't really see the Hawkeyes staying close here.  It's similar to the MSU game in that the defense is a step up from the first 3 weeks, but (outside of a horrendous pick by Howard), the Bucks went through the Spartans like *** through a goose.  MAYBE Iowa's defense is better than MSU, but this isn't the stout Hawkeye defense that won games 6-4.  Also, Cade McNamara inspires absolutely no fear in the Bullets.  I expect a similar game to last week, but the Shoe will prevent the yips in the Scarlet and Gray.  I can't see the Bullets giving up more than 14 nor can I see the offense being held in check for 60 minutes.  3 solid quarters by the 1s to put the game to bed then clean up the rest.  Stay healthy.  Iowa: 9--OSU: 38
Hoying: Finally, a trap game with some teeth. During Ryan Day's tenure, most of Ohio State's overmatched opponents haven't had a prayer of knocking off the scarlet and gray, because there was no advantage to exploit. This year's Hawkeyes, in contrast, have the running game to at least make the Silver Bullets sit up and pay attention. Ohio native RB Kaleb Johnson has been about as good as any running back not named Ashton Jeanty this season, which is good news for Iowa as their passing game still hasn't made it out of the Brian Ferentz era. There's a familiar face behind center for the Hawkeyes, and it's not the Spencer Petras who threw for 49 yards the last time Iowa came to Columbus. No, you know him, you hate him, it's Cade McNamara, the man who brought Ohio State's glorious streak in The Game to a close, and the unlikeliest QB to spur a program's return to greatness since Craig Krenzel. Cade wasn't lights-out in that 2021 abomination but he did drop a dime or two right over Denzel Burke's head, and I'm sure the 4-year veterans on this very experienced Buckeye defense haven't forgotten what the Cheat Weasels took from us on that day. He doesn't have the weapons around him that UM had back then, and I don't think Johnson is quite as good as Haskins or Corum, or even perhaps Tre or Quinshon. I think the Hawkeye D is a bit overrated this season, but even if they're just as good as the vaunted Buckeye defense, Iowa will be in bad shape. You can't cover Egbuka, and Smith, and Tate, and Judkins, and Henderson forever, which means that Iowa's only prayer is to fluster Howard as badly as they got to JT back in 2017 and then lead hard on Johnson to close it out. I don't see it happening. After allowing zero sacks against a bloodthirsty Spartan defense last week, the Buckeyes will be patient, let the offensive line set the tone, allow opportunities to develop, and then mercilessly exploit them for massive damage as the Buckeyes pull away in the second half. Iowa: 3--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this one is closer than you think and then the Buckeye offense explodes. It just has that feel about it. Iowa has a very good defense, but they haven't played an offense as multiple and talented as this. I think they hold the Bucks to under 5 yards a carry, but the explosive plays make a difference. Defensively, I think Knowles turns up the heat. Iowa is TUN light with a good running game and a meh passing game. Really, this should go similar to last week. Iowa: 10--OSU: 38
Seeberg: This game has the feel of a "the natives are restless at halftime" tilt.  The 'Shoe can get nervy if games are close through two quarters.  The Hawkeyes can legitimately run it and legitimately stop the run.  Jim Knowles' D has started slow in every game except Western Michigan, and time-consuming drives from Cade and Kaleb and Co. will shorten the game.  Over four quarters, however, the Buckeyes have too much talent- only the Buckeyes can beat the Buckeyes in this one.  Keep the ball, keep the penalties down, and the gray-clad home team should pull away to around the 18.5-point spread, setting the stage for a massive conference(?) contest next week:  Ducks vs. Bucks.  Iowa: 13--OSU: 31

Draper: FSU over Clemson
Hoying: Arkansas over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg: South Carolina over Ole Miss

Week 5: The Turn of the Tide

 Standings:

1.) Hoying 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Draper 11-5 (0-4 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-5 (0-4 upset)

In the era of the 12-team Playoff, individual games will start to mean less and less as it's easier to fall off the undefeated wagon and still stay on pace to compete for a title. But there are still marginal teams out there looking to avoid bubble-bursting losses, and, at the top, there are still games that can influence the narrative of the college football hierarchy for seasons to come.

Louisville Cardinals @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: This is an intriguing game after the Irish loss to the Huskies and general "who cares?" win against the Redhawks, but Louisville MIGHT be good? I don't know, but the sharps in Vegas have strong convictions on Notre Dame as the line has moved from ND -4.5 to ND -7! While I'm surprised, maybe Marcus got the yips out against NIU and it's time for business.  I'm leaning on the wiseguys here, but the Cardinals have an uphill battle to sneak one in South Bend.  UL: 16-ND: 28
Hoying: So Notre Dame may not be all they were cracked up to be after knocking off Texas A&M. Riley Leonard has not been the transfer panacea they had hoped for, which isn't that surprising considering they couldn't even ride Sam Hartman to a NY6 Bowl last year. On the other hand, Louisville has been just...ehhhh. After dispatching two FCS teams (oh wait, Jax State is C-USA now, aren't they?) ONE FCS team and Jax State, they struggled to put away Georgia Tech at home. I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams, but I don't think this is the game that knocks Notre Dame out for good this season. Look further ahead on the schedule to USC, or Navy (!), or Army (!!!). UL: 20--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Was the NIU game a let down game or is it reality? Is Louisville legit? Not really sure. Notre Dame has put up the better schedule to this point. I guess this game comes down to if the Domers can score enough points. Louisville is going to move the ball and put up points. The Irish have struggled moving the ball against better teams. I tend to lean on history here and Notre Dame just has trouble winning the big ones. UL: 28--ND: 24
Seeberg: You know how I know we're still too early in the college football season?  I just asked myself "are either of these teams good?"  And my definitive answer for BOTH squads was a shrug of the shoulders.  ND destroyed a middling Purdue team after losing to the 4th best MAC team at home the week before.  Louisville played a close game against Georgia Tech, the team that was briefly ranked on the heels of a great win against...oops, nevermind.  Sorry, Chief.  It's strength on strength when Louisville is on offense.  Short fields will be critical for the Golden Domers to put up enough points to win this one, but I think they do put up just enough to do it.  UL: 23--ND: 24

Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Always a marquee matchup, but I don't have a good bead on either team.  The Dawgs slapped Clemson in the 2nd half but looked downright pedestrian against UK.  I haven't seen a UGA run defense get gashed liked they did in Lexington in a long time.  Bama really hasn't seen any true competition.  Yeah, walking into Camp Randall is usually a tall order, but this Wisconsin squad is not the Alvarez wrecking crew.  This is a major statement game for both programs.  Has UGA officially taken over as SEC kings or are they coming for the king and missing? Nick Saban no longer prowls the sideline, but there's no denying the talent.  Milroe has a chance to vault into the heisman conversation, but it will take a LOT to beat this defense.  It's in Tuscaloosa, but I'm going with a TIGHT Georgia win.  I don't think they are nearly as good as the last few years, but I also see regression from the Tide.  UGA: 24--Bama: 20
Hoying: For all of Buckeye Nation dangling the Sword of Damocles over Ryan Day's head for his futility against the rival since 2019, whom do you expect would do a better job? The obvious "never gonna happen" choice would be Kirby Smart, as the owner of two national titles in the last three seasons, notwithstanding that Ruggles' field goal not turning into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight on New Year's 2023 would instead have put Day and Smart at one title apiece. Given the weak Playoff field last year and how Georgia utterly dog-walked FSU in the Orange Bowl, you could even say that Georgia should have been threepeaters if not for a disappointing upset loss in the SEC Championship. But hark, who was that team that upset Georgia last year? It was Alabama, the same team that has been the Sonic to Kirby's Dr. Robotnik ever since he put on the red visor with the black G. Remember, Kirby didn't stroll into Athens and start winning titles on day 1. Instead, Alabama blocked his path, in the 2017 title game, the 2018 SEC Championship, the 2020 regular season, the 2021 SEC Championship, and, as aforesaid, the 2023 SEC Championship. Kirby's first title only happened because Georgia got to take advantage of a rematch with Alabama in the national championship; his Dawgs have NEVER beaten Alabama in the teams' first matchup of the season. Smart has exactly one undefeated season at Georgia: the year they didn't play Alabama at all! You think Ryan Day has a problem with his rival? But all of this was during the Nick Saban era, and it's not like a lot of other SEC teams were having great success against Old Nick either. This game will be a crucial bellwether for the pecking order of the SEC going forward, setting aside for the moment whether Texas is back. These teams this season play very different styles, with Georgia being the Steady Eddies on offense and Alabama going all-or-nothing every play with Jalen Milroe. With an offense like Alabama's, they're going to get theirs on a few plays; the question is whether they can deliver when it counts. Last year's SEC Championship was decided by a missed field goal and a strip sack fumble, and while I don't expect Carson Beck to be rattled in his second year as a starter, a raucous night environment in Tuscaloosa may cause the weird plays to break the home team's way. I got poor (so to speak) betting against Bama all last season, and they darn near won the national championship anyway. As long as Milroe and his new center (thanks for McLaughlin by the way) are on the same page this year, I'm not picking against the Tide anytime soon. UGA: 24--Bama: 27

Schweinfurth: Some things got lost in the off season. Remembering Milroe has trouble passing, the loss of Nick Saban, and amount of talent that transferred out of Bama just to name a few. Alabama is a good team. Georgia is a great team. The Bulldogs continue to be stacked and made a decent Clemson team look pitiful in week 1. I've got Georgia on the road here. The deck is just too stacked against the Tide. UGA: 35--Bama: 17
Seeberg: Despite inconsistency with throwing (and snaps- may not have been McLaughlin's fault in hindsight), Bama looks every bit the juggernaut they were under Saban.  Enter the recent achilles heel in Georgia, a team with better quarterback play and comparable-to-slightly-better play everywhere else.  The added incentive of payback for last year's SEC title tilt should still be fresh enough in the Bulldogs' minds to not let this one get away.  UGA pulls away late.  UGA: 27--Bama: 16

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Bert has been a fun story, and the Illini might be pretty darn good, but I don't thing they can roll into Happy Valley at night and steal one.  While PSU is still filling the role of 'this is the year we finally take a top spot' (until we face one of the big 2), this is a game they traditionally take.  Home game, hopeful upstart trying to dethrone them (from 3rd place), night game....I've seen this story with Iowa too many times.  In terms of wins over expected, the Illini are kings, but this is too steep of a mountain.  ILL: 17--PSU: 30
Hoying: Buckle up, Buckeye fans. It looks like the 2023 Penn State worldbeater we were all promised last year has finally arrived. The defense is still suffocating (outside of a curious porosity through the air against Bowling Green), and Drew Allar is finally capable of pushing the ball downfield instead of just scrupulously avoiding mistakes. The two headed monster at RB hasn't gone anywhere either, and while they aren't nearly as good as our own world-beaters (or maybe even the Don and Jor-El up north), they'll still be able to cause problems for all but the most elite of run defenses. And Illinois, for all their improvement under Bert, does not have an elite run defense. Or secondary. Or quarterback. Or rushing attack...there's just nothing for the Illini to exploit against Penn State. With teams like Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan still on the schedule, Illinois should be able to snag a bowl berth this year, but wins over the true heavies will need another season or two of development first. Ill: 13--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Illinois is having a great start to the season so far. A big(ish) road win over Nebraska last week does nothing but bolster the start. Here's the problem, Penn State is one of the more talented teams in the B1G and Drew Allar is lighting it up. This will be step up for the fighting Berts. It may be a step too far. Penn State should win here. ILL: 14--PSU:31
Seeberg: The Illini did the college football world a favor last week by slowing down the Nebraska hype in typically grind-it-out Bielema fashion.  Remember when these two played 9 OTs to be the first to 20?  Illinois would love a similar situation here.  Keeping Penn State in the 20s is possible, but getting into the 20s is more likely to be their issue.  Too much pass rush from the Lions and just enough plays from Allar and Co. make this a 2-score win.  ILL: 13--PSU: 24

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: Will Howard finally breaks in to B1G Play with a road date with Sparty.  Sparty, too, is a shell of their former selves. New front man Jonathan Smith is trying to bring a little more swagger to East Lansing, but this won't happen in a single year.  Aiden Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance...and flashes of 'huh?'.  I think we'll see a little of both here.  The key to this game is to keep the offense chugging along at Mach 5.  Chip Kelly called a masterful game last week setting up these stud running backs for monstrous success.  Howard need only take care of the ball and orchestrate the passes when needed (AND STAY HEALTHY PLEASE!).  MSU doesn't scare me on the defensive side.  The defense was taken to the endzone twice last week, but Marshall made some phenomenally tight throws/catches that Jim Knowles simply tips his cap.  I expect at least 2 turnovers by the bullets, but maybe an explosive play given up.  Another blitz on offense and a steady diet of the Bullets spells success.  OSU: 48--MSU: 16
Hoying: So many dreams of mine have been shattered this season. Not to trail in any game (thanks, Akron). To score 50 points every time (thanks, Marshall). I'll just have to settle for 2019 regular season dominance with 2014 postseason afterburners. And there's nobody better to pace the juggernaut for another week than the Spartans. Remember back in the early Urban days when this game used to be competitive, even back-and-forth? MSU has completely collapsed since then, particularly on defense. Back in 2017, the last two-headed monster of Mike Weber and JK Dobbins racked up over 280 on the ground to pulverize Sparty, and ever since then they've existed to serve as target practice for each Buckeye QB de l’année. Even Honda McCord was bombing all over them just last year, serving up 3 TDs and 149 yards to Maserati Marv in a last push to get him to NY for the Heisman ceremony (it worked). New Green and White coach Jonathan Smith has done a commendable job raiding the transfer portal to shore up the many, many holes that plagued 2023 Michigan State, but this isn't a secondary that can be fixed all at once. And if you thought Jalen Milroe was feast-or-famine (see above), Spartan fans have been tearing their hair out over their own dual-threat anything-is-possible-on-any-play QB, Aiden Chiles. After letting Marshall get the drop on them running out of spread formations, look for the Silver Bullets to play contain, sit back, and wait for Chiles to make a boneheaded mistake. Then keep pounding and pounding and pounding with some catch and runs liberally distributed among this year's WR-by-committee, and hopefully one or two over the top to bolster Howard's deep ball game. Then sit back and relax and watch the Peoples champion salt the game away in the 4th. Man, I loved 2019. OSU: 38--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: That two headed monster in the Buckeye backfield is just wrong. Judkins is a cheat code and Tre isn't far behind. Combine that with Chip Kelly's running schemes and the Bucks are so hard to stop. I haven't even talked about the receivers yet. I really feel that we haven't seen anything other than fairly vanilla play calls on both sides of the ball. Knowles will dial up a blitz maybe once or twice a game. I'm not freaking out about the defense after last week. They go schemed on a few plays and Marshall's QB made some unreal plays. The offense adds a few wrinkles every week, but it seems fairly basic so far. This week isn't much better as far as the opponent is concerned. I expect more of the same - tons of Judkins and Henderson with some quick hitters from Howard thrown in to keep Sparty honest. This should be a whipping. OSU: 49--MSU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, Sparty week.  Great college football fan base, and, frankly, the best team in that state for most of the last decade.  No longer.  Sparty is a shadow of the teams past that sprung huge upsets from time to time.  Still, they're a half step up from previous competition with a good pass rush and an electric-yet-inconsistent QB who will probably throw a 40+ yard TD and a pick six in the same half.  Hoping Buckeye Nation doesn't freak out when a few growing pains, likely in the pass game and pass rush- show up this week.  They will scheme to get Chiles out of the pocket and bring the house any time a passing down hits Will Howard.  That said, this run attack is just too good to get bogged down for four quarters against an inferior opponent, and it will wear Sparty's good D-line down where the depth just isn't quite there.  Slower game, fewer possessions, but a comfortable win nonetheless.  OSU: 38--MSU: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over Utah
Hoying: Washington State over Boise State
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Ole Miss
Seeberg: Minnesota over Michigan

Week 4: The Fruits of Realignment

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 9-3 (0-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 9-3 (0-3 upset)
3.) Hoying 8-4 (1-2 upset)
3.) Draper 8-4 (0-3 upset)

It's hard to believe that it's bowl season already, with all of these premium interconference battles peppering the landscape...what's that? USC/Michigan isn't a Rose Bowl matchup anymore? Tennessee isn't meeting Oklahoma in the Sugar? Utah isn't playing...well, it's been tough keeping track of what conference the Utes are in since the days when Urban made them the original BCS buster. Enjoy living in the middle times before the Power 2 subsume all of the remaining programs of value.

Southern California Trojans @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: The reigning National Champions* limp into week 4 in what most considered an epic replay of Rose Bowls past.  Fortunately, I expect this to be a replay of Rose Bowl past....but not so epic.  SC has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings (Rose Bowls) from the maize and blue and it's hard to imagine something different playing out in this game.  Something seems to be off on the Wolverines' side this year....I can't QUITE put my finger on what could have caused this MASSIVE fall from dominance.  The QB play has been atrocious in Ann Arbor leading to a change to Alex Orji, the presumed starter entering the year.  The fact that he was passed up is a serious indictment of his throwing ability.  He's a huge human that can run, but he must have been a train wreck to lose the starter's job.  On the other side of the ball Miller Moss has been fantastic running Lincoln Riley's scheme and showed more poise than I've seen in a QB in a long time vs. LSU--which bodes poorly for the UM crowd.  The defense of the Wolverines won't be enough to end the Trojans streak.  USC: 27--UM:16
Hoying: Are we sure that USC is legit this year? As I wrote in my LSU preview, it takes a Jeff Hafley level DC to wash the stink of Alex Grinch off in the span of one offseason. But the Trojans may have found their own industrial solvent in D'Anton Lynn. After slowing down LSU in their opener, SC choked out Utah State and looked like the Silver Bullets doing so. And now they've had an extra week to get ready for an offense that seems to have no idea what it's doing. The Wolverines' roster behind center consists of the guy who can't throw, the guy who doesn't throw (now this week's starter), and a former backup at...Indiana. UM is better on defense but we just saw them get shredded by a competent quarterback not two weeks ago, and the total counterpunch paralysis of their offense did them little favors. During the offseason, Vegas put Michigan's win total for their """"""""title"""""""" defense at 9.5, but if the Cheat Weasels get embarrassed for the second time in three weeks, it might be time to stop taking bowl eligibility for granted. USC: 24--UM: 17

Schweinfurth: The Wolverines are a shell of their former selves. It's almost like losing half your starters ON TOP of losing the ability to know what play is coming has a detrimental effect. Add in a coach who is way out of his depth and hahahahahaha. UM can't throw the ball. At. All. They can run the ball, but if you know it's coming, you can stop it. USC isn't exactly a world beater, but they are better the TUN. The Trojans win and bump the cheaters and the worst from the rankings. USC: 31--UM: 9

Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here.  It's lost some luster from UM's side after their lousy game against Texas, but gained some shine with USC's actual defense(!) and win over LSU to start the year.  I'm not sold a ton on LSU just yet, nor am I sold on either of these two teams.  It is certainly a matchup of strength on strength (USC offense vs. UM defense) and bleh against maybe-not-quite-so-bleh now in UM's offense and the surprisingly respectable USC defense so far.  Sherrone Moore has looked anything but competent as a head coach thus far- probably why he didn't have a contract.  Their QB situation is just alternating dumpster fires, but announcing to the world that Orji would start at the beginning of the week gave the USC defense an even easier time to prep for whatever run-based garbage they throw out.  It's just tough to imagine that team scoring more than 20 on any competent defense, and since USC looks suddenly competent, that's all I need to know.  USC: 20--UM: 13

Utah Utes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: I've seen reports that this could be the first of 2 meetings which wouldn't be a shock since these teams are both pretty mid.  Cam Rising should add a boost to the Utah attack against Mike Gundy since he's a man...he's 40!  If Rising is still out, this should be a heavy reliance on high T football on both sides with Micah Bernard and Ollie Gordon. Gordon was a darkhorse Heisman candidate in the preseason but hasn't gotten off the ground as of yet.  This is a huge stage to take the step forward, but the Ute defense has always been stout.  I usually go with the home team in these scenarios (especially in Boone Pickens) but I'm riding with the Utes in the 'who really cares' game of the week.  UU: 24--OkSt: 21
Hoying: So we all know that the SEC and the Big Ten run the world now, especially since the only team outside of those two conferences with multiple Playoff game wins, Clemson, hasn't been in serious title chase mode for several seasons now. We could charitably say that Miami could make a credible run at a respectable entry into the 12-team field this year, but we need to find a fourth team to fill out the first field of first-round byes. And since we have to keep pretending that the Big 12 is a power conference for a few more years, one of these teams has as good a chance as any to snag that last coveted spot. Oklahoma State has quietly put up Wisconsin levels of consistent success throughout the Playoff era, without a single Playoff appearance. Utah has burned a little brighter during their peak years but always faceplanted when the big prize is in front of their faces. At least they have their back-to-back Rose Bowl runners-up performances to keep them warm at night. You might remember the first of such Rose Bowls as Marv's coming out party, and Cam Rising was still Utah's starting QB back then. And just like every season since then, he's kind of hurt and might / might not play against the Cowboys. Not that it should matter: the Utes have comfortably dispatched their early season foes with Okie State got thoroughly outplayed by, and managed to barely escape, C-tier SEC team Arkansas. Utes get the big road win. UU: 20--OkSt: 17

Schweinfurth: Man there is some experience at QB in this game. Both teams QBs are *checks notes* old. I always get in trouble picking against Utah, but this isn't the Utes team that made the Rose Bowl and won the Pac-12. They seem somewhat diminished. OKSt isn't much better, and this should be close. I'll take the home team. UU: 21--OkSt.24

Seeberg:  I'm not sure what season Cam Rising is in, but I know I'm not surprised that he's injured yet again.  The middle-of-the-country OSU struggled with the Razorbacks but handled their business against Tulsa the following week.  Utah will be prepared and they will play hard, but it's difficult to see them hanging for four quarters with their backup QB.  The Utes wear down on D and Okie State pulls away late.  UU: 13--OkSt: 27

Tennessee Volunteers @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: While Texas is thriving after the SEC move (although they haven't played a decent team yet), Oklahoma has looked shaky at best.  Brent Venables might has the Sooner defense ramping up (a bit), but the offense isn't getting it done against subpar competition.  The Vols, on the other hand, have been putting up ridiculous numbers against the paperbags they've faced.  Perhaps NCState is decent (I doubt it), but UT has been absolutely dominant thus far.  I expect that to continue here.  Josh Heupel knows what it's like in Norman and I expect him to leave victorious once more with Nico Iam...Iam...IamthreattowintheSEC?? UT: 40--OU:24
Hoying: What a reversal of fortune the post-COVID era has wrought upon these two storied programs. The once high-flying Oklahoma Sooners have emerged as some type of Tressel-ball defense-first team, and they have the unimpressive win over mediocre nonconference foe Houston to prove it. Tennessee has more or less risen from their two decade slump to be a perennial SEC contender under Josh Heupel, and they've looked as good as anyone in the country over the season's opening month. No need to overthink this one, the Vols' hot streak isn't cooling until at least the Third Saturday in October. UT: 34--OU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oklahoma is a long way from the Lincoln Riley teams that were running the Big-12. Bring in the Volunteers, who are just running teams this year. Yikes. I think this is a rude introduction into the SEC for the Sooners. Vols win big. UT: 35--OU: 17

Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, astounded at how good my second alma mater has looked this year.  The Vols' purported $8-million QB has looked worth every penny.  Oklahoma struggled mightily against Houston (no, this isn't basketball season) and had difficulty putting away Tulane the very next week.  One would think the Houston game would have been a wakeup call, or maybe the Sooners just aren't all that great.  Either way, the orange-clad juggernaut doesn't look likely to slow down any time soon.  Vols roll.  UT: 41--OU: 20

Marshall Thundering Herd @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Speaking of complete beatdowns, the Bucks have done what you're supposed to in the 'preseason'.  The win over WMU was one of the most complete beatdowns I've witnessed.  Keeping a living breathing team from reaching 100 yards...in game where your offense rarely punted?? Absolute destruction by the Bullets (which is what we expected to happen).  Marshall may have a playmaker or two, but if you listen to the Coach of the Herd, he's falling over himself in delivering the accolades (rat poison?) to the Buckeyes.  This team is too veteran to overlook an opponent on the national stage (Big Noon what???). I'd like the Bucks to establish a little more downfield passing in this game early (to receivers not named Smith---and Smith too) then just lean on them with the run.  Chip had the backs cooking last game, so I'd like to get Howard prepped for making plays more than managing before the B1G season gets going.  Howard for 300 and 3, the 2 headed backfield adds 3 more and the Bucks cruise into conference play.  Oh yeah, Marshall kicks a stupid FG late to break up the shutout.  Marshall: 3--OSU: 51
Hoying: After a strong two week start, all of the pieces seem to be coming together for the Buckeyes to make another title run. We haven't seen any position group be seriously challenged yet, but each has proven that its game plan can work at least in concept. If nothing else, this season should be more fun than 2015's miserable mismanagement of elite talent. And, unlike some elite Buckeyes of recent past (looking at you, 2022) the coaches have actually been willing to rotate pretty deeply at every position, so the Buckeyes should be inoculated against any devastating injuries down the stretch. Then again, if Howard goes down...let's just hope that any such injury would be early enough in the season for Sayin to get up to speed. Danny Kannell and others may roll their eyes at  the latest cupcake finishing off Ohio State's less than impressive nonconference slate, but the more unfortunate truth for the Bucks' SOS is that their conference opponents don't look all that strong either. Outside of Oregon and Penn State, the Buckeyes may not even play another ranked team all year. That's where the style points come in. Clemson played a lot of garbage week in and week out during their title runs, but the Playoff Committee gave them a pass because they pulverized their opponents into fine powder. So another big performance this week would go a long way toward preserving the Buckeyes' Playoff hopes should a 2019 Clemson-style meltdown seize them in one of their few big games this season. No mercy. Marsh: 6--OSU: 52

Schweinfurth: That may have been the most ill-timed bye week I've ever seen. This Buckeye team was rolling and then...nothing. It does give Will Howard some time to watch film and work on his reads, but this team really did not need the bye week now. At least they get another one later in the season. Now to this game. It's another mismatch. Marshall does run an air raid offense, so they will get some yardage and cheap points. I feel like Judkins and Henderson roll for at least 100 yards each.  Enjoy the last blowout before B1G play starts up. Mar: 7--OSU: 52

Seeberg: I realize that it's nearly impossible to plan a season slate this perfectly, but somehow, here we are.  Conference realignment upheaval canceled our former nonconference bout with Washington and we find ourselves with three group of 5 opponents to start the season, each a half step up from the previous one.  Marshall hung with Virginia Tech and, ironically, they play Western Michigan next week so we'll know for sure who is better.  The Buckeyes, however, could beat an all-star team of all three teams combined by at least 21.  The bye week felt...poorly timed as both units clicked on all cylinders in a 56-0 win two weeks ago.  The defense looked poised and disciplined, the offense, even with subs on the O-line, made the run game look good and Jeremiah Smith is just terrifyingly elite for an 18-year-old.  Getting lots of reps for backups at ALL positions is critical too, as injuries are inevitable in this long grind.  Also, have you noticed how we haven't been taking timeouts for not getting a play call decided or horrendous special teams mismanagement?  Amazing what happens when you trim dead coaching weight and delegate properly.  Ryan Day can now be JUST the head coach on game days, and the result is more fluidity and less indecision.  56-0 may be a tall ask, but the domination should still appear.  Start fast, play hard, get reps for everyone.  We'll see you in the B1G 18 next week.  MAR: 6--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: USF over Miami
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Louisville
Schweinfurth: NC St over Clemson
Seeberg: Buffalo over Norther Illinois

Week 3: Pac-12 Fever

Standings:

1.) Hoying 6-2 (1-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 6-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 6-2 (0-2 upset)
4.) Draper 5-3 (0-2 upset)

Just when we thought the Pac-12 was out, they pull us back in. But while we're waiting for the resurrection of 2-Pac into the glorious and refreshing 6-Pac, a couple of longstanding Oregon Territory rivalries hang on for at least another year.

Arizona Wildcats @ Kansas State Wildcats (Friday night)

Draper: Neither of these teams has looked particularly competent on the year.  Kansas State nearly dropped the ball to Tulane last week and Arizona has looked pedestrian at best against poor competition.  Noah Fifita has some juice at QB for Zona, but the star is Tetairoa McMillan at WR.  He absolutely lit up UNM for 304 (!) yards, but did nothing vs. Northern Arizona.  I don't know what to expect out of this game, but I think the scare by Tulane last week will have the Wildcats (of Kansas St.) focused.  Home game gives the edge.  Who are we? The Wildcats! Zona: 27--KSA: 34
Hoying: Much like last Saturday's ranked chump of the week (NC State), here we find two teams that happen to be ranked just because we have to fill 25 spots. Somewhere out there are lurking a few teams that will reveal themselves to actually be worthy of those rankings but I don't think it will be either of these two. Arizona got off to slow starts in each of their games against New Mexico and Northern Arizona before pulling away late. Against UNM, WR Tetairoa McMillan was the hero but he was practically non-existent last week as the Wildcats struggled to do anything through the air. Kansas State at least blew out FCS UT Martin before struggling to put away Tulane last week on a go-ahead fumble return and an end zone interception in the closing seconds. Maybe everything we heard about Will Howard fleeing KSU to avoid being on the chopping block was a bit overblown, as his replacement, Avery Johnson, is averaging a paltry 167 yards through the air per game. Tulane was able to have good success in the passing game against Kansas State and I'm thinking the Cardinal and Navy Wildcats can do the same. Zona: 27--KSU: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm really not sure how good Arizona is. Kansas State appears to be one of the better teams in the Big-12 this year. The Wildcats should pull away late. Zona: 21--KSU: 34

Seeberg:  Excellent sweet 16 matchup here...hang on, wait, I'm being told this is actually a ranked football matchup.  Wonders never cease (still probably more worthy of being ranked than Notre Dame though).  Two weeks worth of games have given us very little about these two squads, the toughest opponent being Tulane so far, who actually gave the Plains Wildcats a scare.  I trust K-State's offense the most of any of the four main units on this team, and that's enough for me.  Zona: 24--KSU: 31

Boston College Eagles @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Boston College is sneaky in this game.  Beating FSU doesn't mean much this year, but they have some talent that hasn't been in Chestnut Hill of late.  Missouri had a fantastic 2023 and has kicked off 2024 in style with back to back shutouts.  The SEC schedule is going to be brutal on the Tigers, but they'll like stay clean here.  I expect BC to hang around with a few deep drives by Castellanos, but it won't be enough down the stretch.  MIZ.  BC: 17-Mizzou: 31
Hoying: Ah, now here are some ranked teams who have done something. For Boston College, it was win a game on Irish home soil (which I guess makes them at least as good as Northern Illinois), while Missouri has been following the Buckeye blueprint of just punishing lesser competition, to the tune of an aggregate 89-0 through two games. I don't need to tell you about Missouri; they are capable to holding a team with Lincoln Kienholz level play to 3 points while finally breaking through an elite defense after ramming their heads against the wall for three quarters. A #6 ranking might be a bit optimistic for this Missouri team but they'll be able to dream on for at least another month before it's put up or shut up time in Tuscaloosa. BC: 10--Mizzou: 31

Schweinfurth: BC is an okay team. Mizzou seems sneaky good again to me. The Tigers should win this with defense. BC: 13--Mizzou: 35

Seeberg:  Let's be honest about this one, the Eagles are ranked solely on the back of a now-useless win against Florida State.  Mizzou, meanwhile, looks poised to become the next SEC team that threatens to break into the top echelon, stacking a couple of good years in a row.  The Tigers may not quite be there yet in their home conference, but they're certainly potent enough- particularly on defense- to shut down a second-tier ACC team.  Tigers roll.  BC: 10--Mizzou: 27

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies

Draper: I don't think I've EVER picked this game correctly. This is mainly due to my love of Mike Leach (RIP), but I just whiff every time. The Cougs have looked pretty good against paper thin defenses thus far while Washington has been fine, but is nothing like the 2023 National Champion runners-up*.  While we have no real info on either team, I'll stick with the B1G team with a semblance of a defense.  The win of Texas Tech is nice but their defense is ATROCIOUS.  When in doubt, go for the home team.  WSU: 20--Wash: 30
Hoying: Long live the Big Ten / Pac-12 challenge. This is the only Power 2 team that the Cougars get to play this year so they'd better make it count. WSU has looked surprisingly competent so far this year, blowing out Texas Tech by racking up over 300 yards on the ground to overcome their QB's atrocious passing...game...wait, which team is this again? I know that Mike Leach left his mark on each of these programs but they seem eager to wash it off quickly in Pullman. Perhaps that's just the price of losing Cam Ward to Miami. Speaking of transfer quarterbacks, Will Rogers has settled nicely into Washington's offense, but he's no Michael Penix, and much like the other two Playoff teams we looked at last week, UW is really hurting from offseason losses. The difference is that one of these teams got promoted at season's end and the other was left twisting in the wind, and the portal results reflect the brutal new reality for Wazzu. The Apple Cup may never be the same again. WSU: 20--Wash: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm so glad they didn't ruin this rivalry. Wazzu has some hate built up over the Pac-12. I'm just not sure hate is enough. Washington is the better overall team. WSU: 17--Wash 38

Seeberg:  Brutal to pick a game like this (or the next one, for that matter) so early in the season.  Rivalry games can get nuts regardless, and these two squads have played a combined GARBAGE schedule thus far, leaving most of their abilities to the imagination.  The Huskies have obviously taken a step back from last season, but they still have more talent and better coaching.  Quite frankly, that doesn't always lead to wins in this series, but the Huskies' D appears pretty legit, and should be enough to hoist the Apple Cup.  WSU: 17--Wash: 23

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: I've been wholly unimpressed with Oregon thus far.  Boise has a solid running game but the Ducks were primed for my upset pick last week without 2 special teams TDs.  That being said, I think the Broncos are likely better than the Beavers.  I do expect Oregon to get these kinks worked out, but even without, there is no good reason to lean on the Beavers.  The Pac-2 may be expanding to 6 soon, but the west coast OSU doesn't inspire fear in opponents.  Ducks roll.  UO: 38-OSU: 20
Hoying: Oregon apparently thought their lofty #3 preseason ranking was an excuse to just go on cruise control until the Buckeyes came to town at season's midpoint, as they've struggled against both Potato State opponents they've faced so far. Granted, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is going to be a problem for any defense he faces, but the holes on defense are what grounded the Ducks in their two losses to Washington last year, and they're going to have to find an answer to Quinveyon Herderkins or risk getting run out of their own building in a few weeks. But the Ducks need to knock it off with the snooze alarm now. Oregon State may have been completely overmatched in last year's Civil War but they're fresh off a total dismantling of future Pac-12 compatriot San Diego State. Oregon should be much, much better than its eastern neighbor this season but the half-butt effort we've seen the last two weeks won't get the job done this time. This is where the rivalry motivation can do wonders to get a team in gear during an extended period of blah. If Oregon looks off for a third time, it might be time to hit the panic button and declare the Big Ten a presumptive one-team race. UO: 34--OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon has been struggling on offense. They just seem to be in neutral and can't find the endzone. Odd. Oregon State is overmatched in this game. However, I can definitely see the Ducks offense continuing to struggle here. This one should be close until late. UO: 31--OSU:24

Seeberg: I'm highly surprised at the Ducks' start this season.  Gabriel has been putting up video game stats (84.3% completion is insane against air) but those stats have only translated into 29 ppg somehow.  The west coast OSU is, well, the least competent of the three OSU squads.  Again, rivalry games can get crazy, and early in the year it can be hard to draw conclusions, but the dam has to break for TDs for the Ducks sooner rather than later.  Quack quack, here comes the flying V!  UO: 42--OSU: 24

Upset Special
Draper: Tulane over Oklahoma
Hoying: Purdue over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Alabama
Seeberg:  North Texas over Texas Tech

Week 2: Not So Great Lakes State

Standings:

1.) Hoying 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)
4.) Draper 2-2 (0-1 upset)

After the season-opening fireworks of week 1, quality matchups are a bit harder to find in week 2. All eyes are focused up north for That Team Living on Borrowed Time to start making payments with interest, while the Buckeyes are back under the lights in the early season for the third time in four years.

Texas Longhorns @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: This is clearly the matchup of the week...but I'm expecting a dud here.  TTUN has a real live defense that can hang with anyone in the country.  Joyfully, their offense is an absolute disaster.  Orji can't take the starting job from a reincarnation of Cade McNamara (actually worse) and the cover athlete for EA College Football 25 stunk it up last week.  Texas came out firing, but it was against a paper bag so we'll learn something about them this week.  Ewers is hoping to keep his name in the Heisman race and this would go a long way in that mission.  I just don't see a world in which the Wolverine offense can put up enough points to support their defense in their marquee non-conference matchup. While this program will face the executioner soon, this will be the beginning of the end on the field.  Expect a slugfest early, but there won't be enough points for the maize and blue to take out the Longhorns.  Hook them.  UT: 27--UM: 13
Hoying: But for Texas being completely incapable of stopping Michael Penix in last year's Sugar Bowl semifinal, this would have been your 2024 National Championship. And the Wolverines probably would have steamrolled the Longhorns just as effortlessly as they did the Huskies. But other than maybe adding a little extra spice to the visitors' motivation, that doesn't really matter for this year's matchup. JJ McCarthy's gone, Blake Corum's gone, Zak Zinter, Roman Wilson, Kris Jenkins (stupid Bengals)...this is not the same team that's had a stranglehold on the Big Ten in the post-sportsmanshipCOVID era. The Longhorns saw the second-most departing players selected in last year's draft (second only to you-know-who), including standout WR Xavier Worthy, but should be a bit better poised to weather the storm. I have a sneaking suspicion that Texas won't live up to their early top-5 ranking, but I'm more convinced that UM won't be reaching the heights of their last three seasons anytime soon (why, we'll never know). Hook them. UT: 24--UM: 13

Schweinfurth: I'm going to preface this by saying I didn't get to see any of Texas' game last week. However, I did get to see most of the Wolverines' stinker against Fresno St, and boy do they have some problems. Donovan Edwards looked lost trying to run the ball and Orji is a mess throwing the ball. There was a time when I actually thought that game was going to come down to the wire, but the UM defense bailed them out. I can't see where the Wolverines score more than 14 points with that popgun offense. Texas will have some issues moving the ball at times, but they should be able to get the drives they need to win. UT: 21--UM: 13 

Seeberg:  Is Texas back?  A top 10 opponent on the road would, in theory, give us some clarity on that annual question.  However, most agree the recently vaunted maize and blue have taken steps backwards, on offense and in intel.  Texas looked the part, demolishing a woeful foe 52-0 last week while UM managed just two offensive touchdowns against a second-tier G5 team.  Maybe coaching without a contract will do that to a guy?  To me, this has the feel of last year's OSU-Mizzou game.  There's little chance the UM offense can sustain drives consistently, and as good as that defense is, they are likely to get worn down by quarter number four.  Plus, Buckeye-adjacent QB Quinn Ewers gets it.  He wants to take down the team up north too.  Horns up.  UT: 27--UM: 17

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Does Iowa finally have an offense to go with the stout defense? Honestly, the answer is almost assuredly no, but there is more hope this year that they can get above the Mendoza line.  Regarding the Clones, I don't know much about them this year, but the Matt Campbell honeymoon phase is drawing to a close.  Iowa has won of the last 10 in this matchup and the game is in Iowa City.  The Wave outdoes the Cyclones for another B1G non-conference win.  ISU: 10--Iowa: 20
Hoying: Finally, Iowa's long nightmare is over: Brian Ferentz is off the sidelines. True, his dismissal isn't exactly the removal of Vecna's restraining device but the Hawkeyes should at least be able to function without being actively held back when they have the ball. Every Iowa OC is allotted a fixed amount of points over their career, and Brian chose to use them all against Ohio State in 2017. Anyway, the Iowa attack should also gain a bit of breathing room from the absence Iowa State's star LB Caleb Bacon, out this week with a leg injury. The Hawkeyes took care of their FCS opponent with much more aplomb than Iowa State did last week, and I think they'll keep their momentum rolling here. Iowa: 20--ISU: 13

Schweinfurth: Ahhh, El Assico. Will we see the offensive ineptitude we have seen the last few years? Probably, but Iowa looks like they can actually run the ball. With the Iowa defense still looking stout, this one will still be a slog. ISU: 9--Iowa: 24

Seeberg:  Iowa had three touchdown receptions by wide receivers last week.  Iowa had three touchdown receptions by wide receivers last season.  Incredibly, both of the aforementioned statements are true.  To say Iowa's offensive futility has been fixed is about as grandiose an overstatement as one can make in the college football landscape, but it does, at least, seem to be headed towards respectability.  And respectability is about all it needs to beat most teams with their annually stellar defense.  Matt Campbell is still at ISU right?  He was mentioned for literally every big job opening in the post-BCS, pre-Covid era.  My how the turn tables.  He's still a good coach, but his overachieving Cyclones won't be able to manufacture enough points in this one.  Hawkeyes pull away late.  ISU: 13--Iowa: 24

Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: Tennessee was the darling of the week in the analytics community with excitement around Nico Iamaleava, but we can take very little from these super cupcakes in week 1.  NCState, on the other hand, played Western Carolina quite close before getting the victory.  That is a rather disturbing omen.  The Vols should be able to take care of business here to provide a 2nd decent nonconference win (over the ACC).  Don't expect UT to run the table in the SEC but the ACC's showing has been less than stellar thus far.  Vols move to 2-0.  UT: 34--NCSU: 20
Hoying: This week's only other ranked matchup takes us to another stupid neutral site game to see Tennessee take on...the NC State Wolfpack? I guess when you have to rank 25 teams you really start to reach to fill in the last five or so. The Wolfpack looked wholly unremarkable struggling to put away Western Carolina last week while Tennessee was busy whomping on Chattanooga. Much is being made of Tennessee's QB Nico Iamaleava, who despite leading the Vols to a Citrus Bowl blowout win over Iowa last year, is still technically a freshman as he ended up redshirting for the 2023 season. But you have to wonder about the potential of a guy who didn't start because he was backing up Joe Milton of all people. Yes, I've seen Joe air it out in the NFL preseason, and no, I'm not impressed, any more so than when he was dragging Michigan's 2020 season into the bowels of futility. At any rate, I don't see a reason why NC State should be able to hang with Tennessee, so I'm going with the Vols for now. UT: 31--NCSU: 21

Schweinfurth: I'm not really sure about this game. It sounds like Tennessee has a decent QB. I honestly know nothing about the Wolfpack this year. The ACC has looked like hot garbage so far and I'll pick the trend here. UT: 35--NCSU: 17

Seeberg:  Wait, this is a neutral site game?  Between two teams who literally don't have anything in common or any beef or much-if-any national gravitas?  We've officially beaten a dead horse into the ground with these early season neutral site contests.  I didn't even know the LSU/USC game was in Vegas until I turned it on.  In any event, welcome to the only other ranked matchup of the week.  The Vols smoked their I-AA warmup squad while NC State...won at least?  Somnambulists through three quarters before finally shaking off the cobwebs to win.  Charlotte crowd might help, but the Vols travel so even that may be a wash.  Second-tier ACC teams generally don't beat second-tier SEC teams and I'm betting that trend will continue.  UT: 38--NCSU: 20

Western Michigan Broncos @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: What to take from week 1? I was a little iffy on Howard's performance out of the gate, but a step back showed a solid (though not excellent) performance--outside of the goofy throw back garbage.  Honestly, Howard managed the game well, ran well, threw...ok, and didn't turn it over.  Jeremiah Smith is 'HIM' and will continue to put up ungodly numbers, but I hope to get Egbuka a little more involved this week.  The O-line needs to open up some more lanes in the run game (please come back Donovan Jackson), but they pass protected fine.  The Broncos are a slight step up in the competition department, but this shouldn't be close.  Expect another powerhouse performance by the Bullets.  Jack Sawyer gets home for 2 sacks this week, Smith catches another, Howard rushes for at least one TD and Egbuka goes over 100.  Show up, dominate, prep for next week. WMU: 13-OSU:48

Hoying: I suppose last week calls for a sigh of relief. Will Howard does not appear to be a bust, although a season-opening dismantling of Akron doesn't really give a good indication of the trajectory of a season (*cough cough, 2011*) or a quarterback (*cough cough Joe Bauserman wheeeeze*). But there was still a lot to love about last week's performance. The defense was solid start to finish other than a few missed tackles, both running backs (and James Peoples!) were reasonably effective, and Jeremiah Smith appears to be as good as advertised. Also, the departure of Parker Fleming was felt in the best way (see Ferentz, Brian above). As for the Buckeyes' cupcake de la semaine, the Broncos put a scare into Wisconsin last week after forcing a three-and-out with a fourth quarter lead, but a turnover on a muffed punt put the Badgers back in control to close out the game. I imagine this has more to do with Wisconsin's continued struggle to find an identity under Luke Fickell than any particular danger presented by WMU. It would be nice to see a bit of a faster start from the Buckeyes this week as we saw more than our share of the slow variety last week and last season, but we should be fine either way. The four-week preseason rolls on. WMU: 10--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Watch out everyone. We could actually see a QB get vaporized into red mist if teams decide not to block Jack Sawyer. That was one of the most dominant defensive performances by a Buckeye D-lineman since Chase Young was blowing by opposing linemen. Will Howard looked like the QB Ohio State needed. Not doing too much and distributing to his talented weapons. I would like to see the Buckeye offense have success running off tackle a little more, but there is time to build. Isn't it nice we get to wait all day to watch a demolition? Yea, this should be a nooner. Whatever. WMU: 6--OSU: 49

Seeberg:  Guys, guys!  WE ACTUALLY HAD REAL PUNT RETURN YARDAGE LAST WEEK!  Amazing what lifting dead weight from a coaching staff will do.  In comes MACtion opponent number two in Western Michigan, who acquitted themselves well against Wisconsin, leading briefly in the fourth quarter before the Badgers finally took command.  Jeremiah Smith is, well, he's real, and real good.  Carnell Tate as a third option is pretty frightening, if the O-line can get healthy.  Jackson may sit again as there shouldn't be any real need for him until October (although getting reps as a full unit would be nice to see as well).  Two defensive touchdowns were the highlight of the day, helping out an offense that will need September to, hopefully, find a rhythm.  Not sure we can rely on 14 points from the D each week, but the 5 sacks were also nice to see, and Jack Sawyer will be in that Akron QB's nightmares.  Make some corrections, stay healthy, and how about a special teams TD this week?  Go Bucks.  WMU: 7--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Boise State over Oregon
Hoying: Illinois over Kansas
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Utah
Seeberg:  Arkansas over Oklahoma State

Week 1: Kicking the Tires

Welcome back to college football (if you didn't tune in to see the Noles get blarneyed by Georgia Tech last week). No tiptoeing out of the gate this year, as you can find a ranked matchup just about any time you tune in, even on the Lord's Day, with a nice mid-afternoon break on Saturday to enjoy dress rehearsal #1 for our beloved Buckeyes in this much anticipated season.

Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The Dawgs enter 2024 as everyone's "clear cut" number one team. The numbers have them lapping the field (although I'd argue the Buckeyes are nipping at their heels).  Their ace in the hole is Carson Beck leading the charge at QB.  Regarding Beck, I'm not 100% sold.  While he MAY be the best QB this year talent-wise, I don't think we've seen evidence on the field to prove that...yet.  There's no doubt that he is surrounded by a ton of talent and Smart will have the defense at a high level like normal.  Clemson has certainly fallen from the "elite" tier over the last few years, but they're still pretty darn good.  Cade Klubnik was a bit underwhelming last year, but should see some upgrades this year.  The biggest problem for the Tigers is they simply don't match up well across the board with the UGA and OSUs of the world.  They'll be hype around this game since these coaches both boast 2 national championships (AFLAC trivia question anyone?), but the talent gap is far too large to lean on an upset.  As we know, the Dawgs will be moving fast in the Benz.  Clem: 13--UGA: 31
Hoying: The death machine rolls on in Athens. Lest we forget, this was the consensus #1 team all last year until they faceplanted in the SEC Championship against the only coach that seems to be able to beat Kirby in the post-COVID era. And I don't see Old Nick prowling the sidelines at Clemson (or even in Tuscaloosa anymore). You can put together the finest non-cheating roster in America and that'll still only get you within 1 point of this decade's new SEC dynasty. Nobody else comes close. And that includes little ol' Clemson, who hasn't looked quite right since Justin Fields's finest hour in the Superdome back on New Year's 2021. What program used to churn out Heisman-caliber Alabama-threatening QB's like no other has stumbled since DJU turned into a pumpkin (look no further than last week for continued proof of that) and nobody has stepped up to restore the Clemson O to its former glory. I'm not sure they can turn this around under Dabo. The most surprising college football success story of the 2010s may be heading back into hibernation for another 40 years. They won't be missed. Clem: 13--UGA: 28

Schweinfurth: Has Dabo done anything in the last few years to show he runs a program able to compete? The guy shirks at NIL and the transfer portal. Fine, to each his own. But cherry picking the best transfers every year to complement the current roster is the way to win in the 2020s. UGA knows it, Ohio State knows it. Clemson doesn’t get it. There is a clear talent gap and the Tigers are on the wrong side of it. Dabo’s still a clown. Clem: 13—UGA: 38

Seeberg:  College football is, mercifully, back!  At least we can count on that every year, unlike the Longhorns.  In any event, this is a banger of an opening week game.  Wait, sorry, just now hearing it's 2024 and not 2018.  I am beginning to get the distinct sense that we will be able to look at Clemson in 20 years' time and find out Fields and Co. may have broken that program like Krenzel and Co. broke the U.  Of course, Dabo's pathetic inability to accept change is having a large say in that as well.  How many Brinks trucks would the Tigers send to Saban's address right about now?  Regardless, they just don't have the horses to compete for four quarters with the Bulldogs.  UGA pulls away in the second half.  Clem: 16--UGA: 34

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Honestly, this should be the most interesting game of the week.  Both teams enter with title aspirations, but there are questions EVERYWHERE.  Can Riley Leonard pick up the mantle in South Bend? Can the Aggies finally break though without Jimbo hamstringing them? I don't really think either of these teams is up to the task this year, but this may be do or die already for Notre Dame with a relatively soft schedule and no conference championship game.  A&M will have the SEC to plow through but this would be a nice feather in the cap for later resume arguments.  In the end, I tend to think that the 12th man will be a little too much for Irish.  If Connor Wegman can be serviceable, the Aggies will get a statement win for the SEC in week 1.  One final thought: the Aggies new defensive minded head coach comes from Duke....the same place the new Irish QB comes from. Uh oh... ND: 20--TAMU: 24
Hoying: This game's too funny not to pick. One of these gets to come out of this one screaming, "It's finally our year!" while the other sucks down the copium that the shiny new 12-team Playoff will be their salvation after a disappointing start. And that's sad in a way: this game won't be nearly as devastating to the loser as it would have been even a year ago. Somehow A&M is favored in this game, which is surprising given that the Aggies have done a boatload of nothing since Johnny Football was freshman year Johnny Football, other than famously beat Alabama in 2021 (which accomplished nothing) and almost beat them a bunch of times since. Heck, even in the COVID year, when A&M went 9-1, they lost to the only good team they played (Alabama again) by 28 points (can you imagine). Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been achingly on the edge of greatness ever since Brian Kelly took over. In 2022 it was clear that they were a QB away from being a serious competitor. Then they picked up Sam Hartman, which was almost good enough to score more than 17 points against Ohio State at home. And then, after getting sliced and diced by Duke until Hartman's last minute scrambling heroics, they decided to steal Duke's QB, Riley Leonard instead. And he sucks! Regardless, and notwithstanding Kyle Field, the 12th Man, the Impossible Drill, Dude Perfect, etc., the Irish are the better team and should come out on top. ND: 24--TAMU: 20

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I don’t believe in until they actually win a big game. TAMU has been a mess the last few years and it may take a while to dig out. Notre Dame at least seems to be building something. The Domers should win this. ND: 28—TAMU: 20

Seeberg:  Are either of these teams...good?  Signs point to maybe.  Both are in the top 20.  We know that Coach Freeman has struggled in big early season games, but playing the Buckeyes may be a bit of a high bar.  The Aggies are certainly a step down from that.  I don't see a ton of offense in this one, so the 12th man will be largely silenced.  ND overpowers the Aggies.  ND: 20--TAMU: 13

Southern California Trojans vs. Louisiana State Tigers (Sunday night)

Draper: This game has the potential to be really fun because neither team really knows what a "defense" is.  I suppose the question is how good the LSU backup QB is.  Lincoln Riley will certainly have playmakers flying around the field and a brilliant scheme, but the trenches should be dominated by the Boys from the Bayou.  The loss of Alex Grinch will be a thing of the past, but one doesn't resurrect a defense in a heartbeat.  I think the main winner in this game will be those betting the over, but the Tigahs should be able to parlay the Vegas crowd into a big early season win.  USC: 30--LSU: 34
Hoying: OK, USC, welcome to the Big Ten. I'm ready to be disappointed. This is USC's first big-time early season SEC game since they got absolutely waxed by Alabama back in 2016 (which still didn't prevent them from ending up ranked #3 for some reason). This year's opponent isn't quite as daunting but this isn't 2016-17 era USC, either. The last time the Trojans were relevant they were graciously getting destroyed by Utah to open the door to CJ Stroud's last gasp at Buckeye immortality. Last season was just a series of comical farces in which Caleb Williams recorded inhuman feats while the defense refused to give the bare minimum to help him out. LSU wasn't exactly a steel trap on defense last year either, giving up north of 40 in each of their losses and above 30 in another five of their wins, but USC had offensive defense down to an art, giving up at least 34 points in each of their last nine (!) regular season games. Thankfully for the Trojans, the Grinch Who Stole Paychecks is no longer prowling their sidelines, but unless Jeff Hafley magically appears as his replacement, you aren't going to wash that stink off in just one season. LSU had the nation's top scoring offense last year and, while they may take a step back after losing their own Heisman winner, USC is about to find out that the SEC still just means more (points). USC: 27--LSU: 38

Schweinfurth: Has USC found a defense yet? Did they find a Heisman type QB? Yea, I didn’t think so. LSU isn’t great, but they will be able to ball somewhat easily. I don’t think LSU is any type of contender here, but they are better than the Trojans. USC: 28—LSU: 42

Seeberg:  Bit of a rebuild for both of these squads as both lost Heisman-winning QBs.  USC, however, didn't really have much of a defense to lose to begin with.  Quite frankly I'm astonished they're even ranked in the preseason.  Lincoln will probably get the offense to function without Caleb Williams, but traveling to LSU in week 1 is bound to be a rude awakening for any team, regardless of talent or coaching.  Say what you want about Brian Kelly but he's essentially Bo Pelini 2.0:  Good for 10 wins a year.  Yay upgrades!  USC: 20--LSU: 31

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This is going to be one of those games in which Buckeye nation will just find something stupid to gripe about (I know I know...that's NEVER happened before).  Of all the games this weekend, this is probably the worst of them all.  A 50.5 point spread is laughable, but it is what it is.  This year is all about making statements for this team.  These seniors came back to beat TTUN, win the B1G, win the Natty, and chew gum....and they're all out of gum.  While this game won't be close and the result will never be in doubt, an early interception, long pass given up on defense, missed FG, etc. will be magnified to epic proportions about why Day isn't the guy for the job.  Stop it.  Day has all he needs and we'll know on Nov. 30th at 3:30 PM if he can drive the ferrari, but for now, sit back and enjoy the ride.  My pick for the surprising star of the afternoon will be true freshman Jeremiah Smith.  I expect him to exceed the ridiculously high standards placed on him.  Howard throws for 3 (2 to Smith) and runs in another (much to the joy of Buckeye nation) while Judkins and Henderson each account for another on the ground.  The defense will be out for a statement so I'm calling for the shutout.  Akr: 0--OSU: 58 
Hoying: I'm trying to remember the last time this much hype surrounded the #2 team in the country. Yeah, there was Ohio State in 2020 and 2022, and Alabama/Clemson during their fierce mid-2010's rivalry. But the general consensus nationwide this season seems to be that the #2 Buckeyes, not #1 Georgia, have the best team in football on paper. The same consensus, however, points to Georgia winning the title due to the question marks over the heads of the Buckeyes' offensive line and the man standing behind them. The line should be...better...this year, but I feel like we've been saying this for three years straight at this point and we have precious little to show for it. If the line could have held out for a few fractions of a second more on one crucial play last year, the national championship wouldn't have needed to be asterisked and eventually rescinded. Of course, the Buckeyes were put in that position thanks to an atrocious early interception, the likes of which you would not expect to see from Stroud, or Fields, or Haskins, or even JT Barrett (that 2017 Iowa game, though). And I think that's all that we really need Will Howard to be. JT Barrett-level. He doesn't need to have a flawless deep ball, although it would be wonderful to be able to take advantage of the separation this year's WR corps is sure to create. Speaking of WRs, did I mention that Ryan Day is starting his first ever day one true freshman at offense this Saturday? That's right, Jeremiah Smith is about to do something that Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison, Jr., never did: start on day one. This man may low-key be the Big Ten MVP by the time the season is done. As for the line, at least there's some consistency in personnel. Urban Meyer took a hit-or-miss 2012 O-line that anchored an inconsistent offense, and turned them into a nigh-unstoppable juggernaut in 2013. Just add Taylor Decker. And the addition of Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin at center should be a huge boost to the big uglies up front, snapping yips in the Rose Bowl aside. I think I may be more confident in the line this year than in the QB, but that could just be the lingering McCord hangover and the known mediocrity of KSU Wildcat Will Howard. It could be that he just needs a better scheme to thrive in, but don't expect the second coming of Justin Fields. At any rate, with an opponent like Akron, we won't learn anything this weekend, unless something is really, really wrong. Bucks by a million, and fifteen more to go. OSU: 52--Akr: 7

Schweinfurth: No bones about it, this should and will be a blowout. The only questions here is what does the usage look like for Judkins and Henderson. What does the WR rotation look like? Can the defense pitch a shutout? Can Ryan Day pull his starters before the end of the third quarter? I’m optimistic about this team, but Ohio State’s best teams don’t win anything. I truly hope this year bucks the trend. Kick back and enjoy this weekend. Football is back. OSU: 52--Akron: 3

Seeberg:  A remarkable offseason in so many respects is FINALLY over.  The Buckeyes take the field against an in-state opponent which has been a sure victory for over a century.  Other than staying healthy I'm hoping to see two things:  A consistent-if-not-yet-explosive offense and a dominant defense.  There are at least five players on this side of the ball who would have been drafted if they had chosen to leave (Burke, JTT, Sawyer, Hamilton, Williams) and at least two more would have been drafted if they had been in college long enough (Downs, Styles).  The 50-point spread has dropped to 48.5, likely a sign that smart money realizes the offense will need time to gel with a new QB, no Marv and an O-line that, while good, is thin, especially at tackle.  Get out early, get comfortable, get LOTS of experience for new RBs and OL that they'll need inevitably for this long season.  I'll be in the Shoe by 3 to watch TBDBITL kick off another season.  Let's Go Bucks!  OSU: 45--Akr: 3

Upset Special
Draper: South Dakota State over Oklahoma State (I wanted WVU)
Hoying: New Mexico over Arizona
Schweinfurth: WVU over Penn State
Seeberg:  Fresno State over TCUN

J.K., Hall, Day

 

Roy Hall.  It’s not a name that means much unless you’re a Buckeye fan of a certain age (33-45, give or take).  He had a reasonable career at Ohio State:  52 catches, 580 yards, 3 TDs.  He even turned himself into a 5^th round draft pick, though he only managed just 1 career NFL catch.  For those who need their memory refreshed, Hall was a senior on the 2006 Buckeye squad that dismantled everyone they played until they squeaked by a #2 TTUN team and then got smoked by future Buckeye coach Urban Meyer in the BCS title game.

That season’s game against the team up north was eye-opening for many reasons, but the main one is as follows:  Roy Hall had 3 catches, including a touchdown, on the game’s opening drive.  Jim Tressel, who is famous for repeating endlessly that the punt is the most important play in football, came out in a five-WR set.  On the very first play.  The vaunted maize and blue looked more confused than the defense in Remember the Titans when the high school team in the state title game went shotgun.  FIVE wideouts?  Did Tressel consult with Mike Leach when nobody was looking?  Was that even legal in the Big however-many in 2006?

Turns out it was legal, and it worked.  Troy Smith was a runaway Heisman winner that year, so of course the Buckeyes threw the ball all over the lot, in spite of Tress’s typical wishes.  He played to the strength of his team.  Good coaches create unique systems that work with the right players.  Great coaches adapt their systems to the strengths of their players.  Five nattys between the Penguins and Buckeyes make Tress a great coach by any measure.

Enter Ryan Day.  Much has been made of his willingness this year (a couple of seasons late according to many) to scale back his responsibilities.  Do less, delegate more, and hopefully the results will come.  In the meantime, however, it can be pretty easily argued that Day meets the above definition of a good coach, but not a great one.

All Buckeye fans have seen the picture on the bench of the 5 WRs:  Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, Marv and Julian Fleming.  By my count, that’s four first round picks and a 5-star who, when not injured, has been highly productive as well.  Emeka Egubka isn’t even pictured which is absolutely insane.  Can anyone guess how many plays all five ran together in a Buckeye uniform?  If you set the over/under at .5, you’d have to take the under, which is as sad as it is true.  Ryan Day could have trotted out freshman Marvin Harrison Jr. as the fifth wide receiver.  No defensive backfield in the history of college football is deep enough to cover him one on one.  Due to the absurdly tight WR rotation, he had three catches all season then three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl when Wilson and Olave opted out.  Marv was great, he was ready, but no 5-WR sets existed in Day’s offense, choosing instead to split out RBs and TEs.  Truly mind-boggling.

However, this wasn’t always the case.  Look no further than the only rivalry game Day has won so far.  In 2019, he inherited Urban’s team that, while utilizing the spread, used it primarily to run first, pass second.  That sharply contradicts Day’s philosophy, but that didn’t matter in Ann Arbor when J.K. Dobbins went berserk to the tune of 211 yards and four touchdowns on 31- yes you read that right- 31 carries.  That’s great coaching, adapting your system to the strengths of your roster. 

Last season, Day had two elite WRs (with one struggling to stay healthy) and what can only be described as a significant dropoff at quarterback.  However, in only one game did a running back run for over 150 yards (Treveyon, 162 against Wisconsin), and in no games did a running back even reach 25 carries.  The winner of the rushing battle against TCUN has won every single game this century.  You know who won the last three contests, sadly.

The expectations are sky high this year, as they should be.  The defense is elite, the offense has skill, and Day, in theory, is more hands-off.  This year’s roster has two J.K.-level running backs, and you can bet, if they’re healthy, they can be ridden to a phenomenal season- if Day allows it.  Chip Kelly has been historically willing to run the ball and their relationship is strong.   Given good health (fingers and toes crossed), and the introduction of helmet comms, there’s nothing to get in the way of the 2024 Buckeyes… except Ryan Day.