1.) Hoying 41-8 (4-10 upset)
2.) Seeberg 40-9 (1-13 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 39-10 (2-12 upset)
4.) Draper 36-13 (2-12 upset)
You know them, you hate them, you saw them get whacked in Columbus a couple of months ago, you've seen them lose to the Buckeyes twice in Indianapolis before, and now you get to see them again. Also, in a very neat and tidy weekend, you get to see 9 other conference championship games, and nothing else, as the Playoff field comes into final focus.
FRIDAY
Pac-12: Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: This is an extremely difficult pick as I don't think either of these teams are, how you say...good. Yes, Utah has been murdering their schedule of late, but I just don't care as the Pac12 is just a total nothing-burger. Oregon would have been vying for the playoff as well if they didn't poop one away against a guy who plays to win the game. Justin Herbert is this year's Mitch Trubisky (meh QB in college that the NFL scouts think will be transcendent--and isn't). Finebaum is taking a lot of heat for saying no one in the country wants to see Utah in the playoff. This is almost true. If we end as the 1-seed, I would LOVE to see Utah as the 4 seed. Utah: 27 -- Ore: 24
Hoying: I hesitate to put this one on the same level as the other Power 5 championships, not because the Pac-12 is the worst conference in the playoff era (they aren't, hi, Big 12), but because this game is played in the middle of nowhere outside of a nightmare traffic city at 5 PM local time on a weekday. Which means nobody will be there. The Utes are making back-to-back appearances (the two Utes?) hoping to avenge their horrible offensive performance last year against the Huskies. Oh, that should be no problem against a top 20 rated defense? Uh oh. The Ducks have fallen off a bit after allowing single digits for 5 games in a row earlier this year but are fresh off of holding their rivals to 10 points (you know, the Beavers that had just hung up 53 on Washington State the week before). But the Utes have been executing Buckeye-esque dominance against a Clemson-esque schedule (so, just Clemson-esque dominance) outside of a puzzling loss to USC and show no signs of slowing down. Let the debate begin between Utah and the Big 12 champ for the 4th playoff spot. Utah: 34--Ore: 24
Schweinfurth: Hey look, it's not Pac-12 After Dark for once. I don't know a whole lot about either team just for the simple fact of Pac-12 After Dark (aka my bed time). I will say this, Utah needs to win big against Oregon to have a shot at the 4 spot. I do see the Utes winning, but Justin Herbert will keep this close. Utah: 35--Ore: 31
Seeberg: I'm an old man. Not "GET OFF MY LAWN" old just yet, but too old to stay up and actually catch PAC-12 games most weeks, at least in their entirety. Oregon slipped up at ASU a couple weeks ago but completely carpet-bombed USC at their place just two weeks earlier, at the site of Utah's only loss to date. All of the Utes' wins since that debacle have been by at least 17, save a 5-point escape at Washington. I'm not certain if my ears can adjust to hearing "Utah" and "playoffs" in the same sentence when we aren't talking about the Malone/Stockton/Hornacek Jazz teams of the 90s, but we may very well end up there. I just hope the don't wear those awful throwbacks the had on for their dismantling of Colorado last week, almost like a competition with the Ducks for worst gear. Utah: 31--Ore: 27
SATURDAY
Big Nude Saturday 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: What's going to give? Will the team that dominated the first half of the first game (side note: rematches SUCK) and honestly looked like the better team finish the job or will they cower in the wake of the historical name? I continually hear about how this year's OU is different in that their defense is better than previous years, but I haven't seen it. Baylor looked phenomenal for a nice chunk of game 1 and if they can come close to that level of execution for 60 minutes, they may run the Sooners out of the building. This is the opportunity for Jalen Hurts to try to leave a lasting impression to get the middle America voters to pay his way to New York, but I think the little engine that could in Baylor throws another wrench into the playoff system and knocks off the big bad Sooners. The national pundits have penciled in Utah and OU victories in their discussions...probably because they don't want to face the possibility that Baylor leaps to #4....it could happen. Baylor: 41--Okla: 34
Hoying: Thankfully I didn't have to break this out for the Pac-12 title game, but it is championship rematch weekend, so it's time for the How Pointless? meter, where I weigh in on how unnecessary the game at hand is.
How Pointless? Moderately pointless. Every Big 12 championship game is a rematch, but at least these teams are tied atop the rankings. In the bad old days, Oklahoma would take its head to head win over Baylor and hope its resume was good enough to earn the #4 spot in the Playoff. Now, Oklahoma has a good opportunity for another quality win (over the same team) and Baylor has a huge opportunity to avenge their loss and complete their case for the #4 spot in the Playoff, a la Oklahoma last year. And make no mistake, the Bears are good enough to take this one; it wasn't a complete fluke that they were boatracing the Sooners in the first half last time. The Sooners may not have been upset on that day, but the Bears are upset now, and Oklahoma is about to rediscover how hard it is to beat a good team twice in the same season. Baylor: 38--Okla: 35
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma has Baylor on tilt. That second half of the first meeting just demoralized the Bears. What makes it worse? CeeDee Lamb was out when the Sooners mounted that comeback. I still think there is enough of a mental block here that, if Baylor trails early, this could snowball. Neither defense is great, so yeah points! Oklahoma continues to torture Baylor. Baylor: 42--Okla: 45
Seeberg: Despite this being one of several (yawn) rematches, it's difficult to piece together the first matchup. Is Oklahoma as bad as that first half or as good as the second? Vice versa for Baylor? Tough to tell, though the truth likely lies somewhere in between. We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice" cliche, but I'm not convinced either team is good enough for it to qualify. The committee would likely rather have had Baylor undefeated heading into this one (and have Oklahoma's only loss not an inexplicable laying of the egg against Kansas State) so that the Sooners and their #brand could upset them and slide into that coveted 4th playoff spot (here's looking at you, 2014 Buckeyes). Nevertheless, it's a de facto quarterfinal for the playoffs and the winning squad will bite their nails until noon on Sunday. Who's winning, you ask? Ok, boomer. Bay: 27--Okla: 35
AAC: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Memphis Tigers
Draper: I think I've seen this one before (side note: rematches SUCK). This game LITERALLY took place last week and we get to play round two...for something that counts (side note: rematches REALLY SUCK). Can the Bearcats clean up their silly mistakes and throw their hats in the ring for the Cotton Bowl? Sure. Fickell's team was likely one stupid personal foul from eking out a win last week...and something tells me old Adam Sandler will get that cleaned up for round two. It's super dumb, but the Bearcats win and get the spoils. Cincy: 34--Mem: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Very pointless. Memphis played the tougher AAC schedule and took care of the Bearcats barely 7 days ago, and now the same teams are back on the same field, playing the same game. It's not like Cincinnati got run out of the building, though, and they will be very motivated for revenge after having their Buckeye-only-tainted season and Cotton Bowl hopes ruined. Memphis is still probably the better team, but beating the same team twice, yada yada yada. Cincy: 27--Mem: 24
Schweinfurth: Cincy put up a fight last week in Memphis. There are just too many red flags for me to pick the Bearcats here. Memphis is playing well and is at home again. Cincy is going to put up one heck of a fight, but ultimately the AAC belongs to the Tigers this year. Cincy: 27--Mem: 28
Seeberg: So the Fighting Fickells hung tough against Memphis before falling on the Tigers' home turf last week. But now it's a title game, so at least they get them on a neutral field! What's that, you say? The team who won the regular season hosts the championship game? And Memphis has the (obvious) tiebreaker? Well...damn. Nonetheless, the Bearcats turned it over 3 times, had nearly as many yards, allowed an opening kick to be returned for a TD, played from behind the entire game and still kept it competitive. It's just hard to picture that many things going wrong again. Bearcats bounce back. Cincy: 34--Mem: 27
SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: It's almost like the top teams in the SEC never play each other cross-division....hmmm.... Regardless, this should be a fun one. Georgia gagged the game away vs. South Carolina in an inexplicable fashion making this game actually have relevance...(imagine: had UGA won that game, there's a good chance both of these teams are in the CFP regardless -- this is why the playoff designed like this is bad for college football). Georgia has taken care of their opponents fairly easily with the exception of Auburn which was a living a breathing squad. Don't forget that Kirby Smart and Co. went into Jordan Hare and emerged victorious (something another coach failed to do earlier this....week). While the game should be extremely impactful and well-played, there's a good chance it will be booooooring. Georgia's defense is very good...good enough to slow down everyone's defacto Heisman winner, and their offense is....well their defense is very good. The Tiguhs, on the other hand, have a wonderfully explosive offense (don't forget about their running game) but their defense....well, did you see Joe Burrow's senior intro video? I expect a relatively low scoring game LSU pulls out in the clutch. It won't be enough for LSU to jump OSU (to Gary Danielson's chagrin), but it will nestle them comfortably at 2. UGA: 13--LSU: 20
Hoying: How Pointless? Not pointless; these are clearly the best teams in their divisions and they haven't yet played this season. Georgia's offense is baaaaad, to the point of being capable to losing to horrible horrible South Carolina by virtue of putting up 3 points in 2 OTs, but the defense might be the best in the country this season. So, SEC classic compared to whatever the purple and gold juggernaut residing in Baton Rouge is doing these days. LSU has faced a couple of for real defenses so far this season; they shredded one (Florida) and needed everything in the bag to get any movement against the other (Auburn). Georgia's defense is better than both of those. Something has to give, and it isn't going to be Joe Burrow. Not yet, anyway. Texas A&M played Georgia to a standstill two weeks ago and LSU just eviscerated the Aggies. I don't expect a repeat of that performance, and Georgia is absolutely good enough to win this game, but Coach O's offense will be enough. UGA: 16--LSU: 20
Schweinfurth: Let's have a quick chat about this one. Do you believe that Georgia can score more than 21 points in any given game? The Bulldog offense has been a pop gun this year, so let's go with a no here. Do you think LSU can score more than 21 points on the Georgia's defense? Well, no one has really stopped Burrow and company this year, so let's go with a yes. Do you want to hear a Coach O interview post game? Absolutely. Tigers win UGA: 20--LSU: 35
Seeberg: To put it bluntly, this game is absolutely strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. LSU has done a full 180 from their typical identity, scoring at will but looking like your average Big 12 team on defense. Fromm (who they chose over Fields for reasons I literally will never be able to wrap my mind around), meanwhile, leads a painfully sputtering Bulldog offense. On the other side(s) of the ball, Jeauxy Heisman is lighting it up on offense but UGA is easily the SEC's best defensive squad. I'm sure if this game is even close the SEC will clamor that they should have two in. God forbid Georgia pulls off the upset (which is more than plausible). Still, it's tough to imagine LSU being held under 30, and Fromm certainly isn't putting that many on the board. Geaux Tigers. UGA: 20--LSU: 31
ACC: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: The good news: Clemson will play an opponent currently ranked in the CFP! Something of which they have precisely 0 on their current resume! The bad news: after they stomp them, they will be back to....0 ranked opponents! Virginia had a nice little and Bryce Perkins is a scrappy QB, but the Tigers are at a different level after the close call at UNC. Also, Dabo: no one is questioning your team. I don't think anyone on Clemson is buying his pity party that no one believes in them. Even Jonathan Frakes knows your story is pure fiction. UVA: 20--Clem: 45
Hoying: How Pointless? It's Clemson against an overmatched opponent in the second half of the season. What do you think? Clemsoning isn't even a thing anymore. At least it's not a rematch (you can tell this because unlike every other week this season, Clemson's opponent is approaching halfway decent). The Tigers close out a 13-0 start without a win over an opponent finishing the season ranked. UVA: 10--Clem: 38
Schweinfurth: All Clemson does is cover. Outside of the UNC scare early, they have run away from the ACC. Not much else to say about this one. UVA: 17--Clem: 42
Seeberg: Hey Clemson gets to play a ranked opponent! Until, of course, they beat #23 Virginia by a million in this game. IF (and that's intentionally a big if there) the final outcome is even moderately close, the committee might keep the Cavaliers ranked just to throw them a bone. Not that it matters. Personally I just want any circumstance that gets the Buckeyes in the playoff and away from Clemson in the semifinals. UVA: 13--Clem: 45
B1G: Wisconsin Badgers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: In another twist of fate, we get another game that....we've already seen before (side note: rematches SUCK). In Round 1, the Buckeyes completely dominated the Badgers in all phases except punting (which led to the Badgers lone score). While this game isn't in the Shoe, Indy has become more or less the friendly confines for the Buckeyes in the B1G Championship Game era. There are 2 questions to answer: 1) will Justin Fields be 100%? 2) Will Paul Chryst and the Badgers have something new cooked up to exact revenge? For Q1, probably not, but he should be good enough to keep the offense churning. Watching the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor when Fields was 'iffy' didn't seem to be a problem. For Q2: I've seen nothing from the Badgers in the Chryst Era that suggests they can adapt the gameplan to something other than ground and pound. Now, there's a slight caveat in that Wisconsin was pretty successful in the snow last week throwing the ball all over the Gophers. The difference is the return of the Silver Bullets. The Buckeye pass defense must play more consistently this week (please come back Shaun Wade), but there's no reason to think that Jonathan Taylor will be able to do what he's done against the non-OSU part of the schedule. As for the Buckeye O, JK needs to show the B1G Voters how dumb they were for voting on name and not talent or results on the field for Running back of the year. This is the moment for 3 statement games for 3 legit Heisman candidates. I'm seeing Young with 2.5 more sacks OR drawing 3 holding penalties (Wisky will hold on every play but get call 3 times which is WAY more than average for them), Dobbins with 120 and 2 and Fields with a more average game of 240 and 2. Regardless, the Bucks cruise to victory, and we'll see you in the playoff. UW: 17 -- OSU: 42 (Note: while Hoying has the same score, we came up with it independently. I cannot change as I told my students this score earlier in the week.)
Hoying: How Pointless? Aaagghhh. After dodging bullets in 8 years of the B1G championship game, it's finally come to this: a Buckeye rematch. As stated above, we've already seen this show. These teams are not on the same level, and they have not really had comparable seasons (other than blasting Michigan). On the plus side, we should be able to see the top 10 matchup Illinois robbed us of back in October (and then the Illini lost to Northwestern last weekend, enjoy your karma, Illini). Michigan's defense is a heck of a lot quicker and stronger than Wisconsin's, and JK Dobbins and the slobs moved the ball at will for 60 minutes. Just like in Columbus against the Badgers 2 months ago. And Jack Coan is sure no November Shea Patterson. But now Wisconsin is mad about the "Jump Around" in Columbus earlier this year, they're mad about losing to Ohio State every year, and they're mad that they've been to Indy 6 times but haven't won since 2012. In my preview for The Game, I deliberately invoked the 1975 season as an example of #1 Ohio State going into Ann Arbor and winning, rather than invoking examples of #1 ranked Buckeyes suffering a tie (1973) or a loss (1969) at the hands of the Wolverines. All 3 of those Buckeye teams were dominant, and all of them destroyed Wisconsin, holding the Badgers to single digits. But in 1975, the Buckeyes followed up their win in Ann Arbor by losing the Rose Bowl (and the national championship in the process) against UCLA. The same 2-loss UCLA the Buckeyes had blown out in Los Angeles earlier that year. The Buckeyes haven't had another same-season rematch since the 19th century. Let's exorcise another ghost of Buckeyes past, lock up the #1 seed in the Playoff, and keep the Badgers mad. UW: 17--OSU: 42
Schweinfurth: These guys again? How many times does the Buckeye defense have to stuff Jonathan Taylor for the Badgers to just concede. Yea, dumb things can happen (see fumbleitis against Penn State) but this iteration of Wisconsin still doesn't scare me. I expect almost the exact same game plan: Play 4-4 cover 1, put Okuda on Cephus, and unleash Chase Young. On offense, Fields doesn't need to run much for this offense to be dangerous (see the last game against the Badgers). Look for lots of Olave and KJ on mesh routes and big runs after the catch. I just ask that we get Fields through this game without staying on the turf this week. Bucks win big and get that all important 1 seed. UW: 7--OSU: 56
Seeberg: Ok everybody, this really feels like a foregone conclusion. Frankly that would worry me if the opponent were wearing maize and blue, but 'sconny red just isn't that intimidating. Another 31-point win might be a bit too much to ask for (as is the accompanying Jump Around elite-level trolling), but the amount of things required to go right for the Badgers to win this game require NASA levels of computing to discern, UNLESS... We all know it, and I won't even say it, but we were all terrified for half a dozen plays last Saturday until a certain player came back onto the field and promptly fired a Heisman-worthy TD pass. Wisconsin will be angry, and they will be focused, but they flat out cannot throw the ball and can't consistently stop the freight train that is the Buckeye offense. Keep everyone healthy, get the W against the W, and pray we avoid Clemson until the championship. UW: 13--OSU: 35
Bonus:
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
How Pointless? Mostly pointless. App State dropped Louisiana by 10 back in October, but that was the Cajuns' only loss in conference.
MAC: Miami Redhawks vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
How Pointless? Not pointless. This isn't a rematch and the teams have identical 6-2 conference records.
C-USA: Alabama-Birmingham Blazers @ Florida Atlantic Owls
How Pointless? Not very. The Owls are a game up in the standings but they haven't played the Blazers yet. Only Florida Atlantic has the Quality Loss (TM) to the Buckeyes.
Mountain West: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Boise State Broncos
How Pointless? Super duper pointless. Boise State has dominated the Mountain West this year, including beating Hawaii by over 20. The West division is a mess and Hawaii finished on top with a 5-3 record.
