Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Week 11 Picks--Pac 12 Championship

Thurs: Virginia Tech Hokies @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Draper:
Is Virginia Tech any good? I'm not sure. Lost to Clemson at home, squeaked by Duke, squeaked by Miami at home...can't tell anything yet. Georgia Tech is riding high after knocking Clemson from the undefeated and the option is always a beast for which to prepare. I think the Hokies are going into a 'hornet's nest' (Oh-Ho-Ho, see what I did there) and the option of GT takes the game and control of the ACC Coastal. Nice to have the first good Thurs. night game. Only one thing needs to be said: "Fire Craig James". VT: 27--GT: 34
Auer: VT has had too long to prepare for this one. GT played their best in an upset victory over Clemson, can lightning strike twice? Surely. But with the extra prep time for the superiorly talented Hokies, it won't be enough to save the Yellow Jackets. VT: 31--GT: 27
Hoying: Quick, name a team with 8 terrible wins and a loss to the only real team they played. No, it's not anyone in the WAC or MAC or PAC...12, it's Virginia Tech. On the other hand, we have a flaky Georgia Tech team that rallied to pull off a huge win against another flaky team, Clemson. Who has the edge here? The Georgia Tech option is always difficult to defend, but Beamerball is alive and well, as the Hokies have been shutting down the terrible teams they've faced. Georgia Tech chokes away another big game at home, and the Hokies take the inside track to a rematch with Clemson. VT: 20--GT: 17Schweinfurth: Virginia Tech (basketball and football) is this team that always seems to be right on the brink of being good. That said, the triple option offense of Paul Johnson is problematic for anyone. Believe it or not the Yellow Jacket offense can be very quick strike and a night game in the ATL will be the difference in this one. VT: 24 -- GT: 28

Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal

Draper:
Here comes the Cardinal's one real roadblock on the year. Last year, I was on the Stanford bandwagon and they let me down in the second half. While Luck is going to win the Heisman, he hasn't had a great year. The Ducks have been rolling since that turnover fest in Jerryworld. This is statement game for the winner and a death knell for the loser. With the ineptitude of the Pac12, the winner of this game will most likely be the winner of the North, who will most likely be the winner of the conference, who has a real chance of being in the National Championship. I think the crazy running attack will outduel Andrew Luck for a HUGE road win. UO: 41--Stan: 30
Auer:
Homefield advantage shouldn't mean too much in this one as the Ducks are used to big crowds, and Stanford doesn't always bring their A-game... unless there band does something crazy. Anyway, Luck will be without some of his top weapons, possibly two TE's and a WR (Owusu). This Oregon squad hasn't had the pizazz of previous teams, and Stanford will assert themselves as the true class of the Pac12. UO: 35--Stan: 52
Hoying: Since losing a tough game to the best team in the country, the Ducks have had a 2009-esque year, tearing through a slate of squishy west coast defenses on the way to one of the most important games of the 2011 college football season. Stanford, meanwhile, was exposed in a big way in Los Angeles as a feisty USC team nearly knocked them off. The winner of this game will be the one who learned the most from these tough games. When in doubt, go with experience. Andrew Luck will be the difference maker as Stanford takes care of business at home. Stanford stays alive in the lottery to get slaughtered by LSU. UO: 38--Stan: 42Schweinfurth: I feel like this will be the game of the week. This is two high powered offenses that can go off for 50+ any given game. This will be a flat shootout. Andrew Luck will have his way with the Ducks defense that lost a ton from last year. Stanford's defense will also have it's hands full with the Ducks offense especially with TheMicheal healthy and ready to romp. This will be a fun one to watch with tons of points. UO: 52 -- Stan: 49

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper:
With everything happening in Happy Valley, will they rally around JoePa or be absolutely devastated by the allegations? I can't imagine the Lions will be able to play with these horrible events surrounding them this week. While I feel bad for the seniors and the current players, this will be a very tough situation from which to fight back. Nebraska comes off being upset at home by Northwestern and they will foaming at the mouth. Penn State has football issues as well that will be exposed against a better offense. The off-the-field issues are way to much to overcome even with the winningest coach on the sideline (Editor's Note: JoePa was fired after this was written). Neb: 31--PSU: 10
Auer: Prayers to the children and families of those children. The rest of you... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Neb: 41--PSU: 7
Hoying: Word is there's a football game in Pennsylvania this Saturday. If the coaching staff is still there, the game is an abomination. If they're gone, the Lions have no chance to keep it together. Not much needs to be said here. Neb: Win--PSU: DoneSchweinfurth: At this point, this game is a sideshow with all that is going on in Happy Valley. JoPa announcing his retirement may spark the Lions to play a bit higher, but the distractions will be way too much. Nebraska is upset after losing to Northwestern last week and the Blackshirts smell the blood in the water. Penn State has played way over their heads so far this year and, with the distractions, is about to come crashing down. This one is ugly early. Neb: 35 -- PSU: 3

Auburn Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper:
Titanic forces collide in another SEC showdown....in other words, yawn. The SEC is a joke outside of the top 3. Auburn continually squeaks the dregs while Georgia seems reborn after an 0-2 start. UGA should get it done between the hedges simply because Auburn isn't that good. The home crowd and the QB advantage lead me to lean Bulldogs. Aub: 13--UGA: 24
Auer: The momentum of the UGA win over Florida is going to go a long way. It might even save Mark Richt's job. Gene Chizik continues to prove his success was a flash in the pan. Aub: 7--UGA: 31
Hoying: Someone has to win the SEC East so the charade of an SEC championship can take place, and Georgia has seized control late in the season. Problem is, they still have an SEC West team standing in their championship path. Auburn has seriously overachieved this season, falling to three quality teams and taking care of business against the rest, most notably two other SEC East teams: South Carolina and Florida. Will Georgia provide a stiffer challenge? Not really. The Dawgs are still too inconsistent on offense to hang with a spurting Auburn squad. SEC Least falls again. Aub: 28--UGA:21Schweinfurth: This is the classic over achieving team versus the under achieving team. Auburn, somehow, continues to win close games against teams that should be blowing them out. Georgia got off to a terrible start this year and has quietly turned things around. The Bulldogs are still playing for Richt's job and Auburn just isn't that talented. Aub: 10 -- UGA: 17

Miami Hurricanes
@ Florida State Seminoles
Draper:
I put this on here because it means something to me. Miami continues to sleepwalk while waiting for the hammer to drop from the NCAA (who knows if anything will happen with the ineptitude of the organization) while FSU is quietly rebounding from the Oklahoma loss and subsequent losses due to injured QB. I will still take a minor miracle for FSU to make/win the ACC title game, but I believe they are the most talented team in the conference. EJ Manuel beats up on Clemson if he wasn't hurt (only 7 point loss at Death Valley without him). That being said, Miami has been blah and will continue. How do you salvage a season when the preseason title hopes are dashed? Annihilate your rivals. First up are the Canes. Welcome to Doak. UM: 13--FSU: 30
Auer: Didn't know they still played football in the Sunshine State. Doak will surely be fired up for this annual clash with their cross-state rival. Miami has been very hit-or-miss this season and might have a few tricks up their sleeves in the one remaining game that matters for the Hurricanes. UM: 23--FSU: 21
Hoying: Give the Hurricanes credit; they've hung tough in every game they played this season, even against such quality opponents as Virginia Tech and Kansas State (and crappy ones like Maryland). FSU has surged back after a slow start under the steady play of E J Manuel, but all four wins in their current streak have been against low-caliber competition. The important thing to remember is that Jacory Harris is still slinging the ball for the 'Canes, and that means big trouble against the tough Seminole defense. Miami mistakes cue a win for the garnet and gold. UM: 13--FSU:21Schweinfurth: Miami and Florida St. always seems to come down to the last play (or kick as it were). This year will be much different. Florida State is the better team by far. EJ Manuel and Jacory Harris will enjoy throwing to the team wearing garnet and gold. This isn't much of a game with Harris throwing 3+ picks. UM: 17 -- FSU: 35

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper:
Buckeyes slept walked through the game vs. Indiana and it showed. Offensive performance was pretty good but the defense can't play like that again. Thankfully, Purdue sucks. These Buckeye upperclassman will go in fired up to avenge the 'Get Used to It!' game of 2009. Hopefully, we'll see a steady dose of Boom and Hyde and maybe even a slant route (gasp!). Purdue doesn't run the option game like IU and the Bullets shut down standard offensive attacks. Look for a big Buckeye win to keep the train rolling (they'd better since I'm going to be there!). OSU: 31--PU: 16
Auer: Another trap game for the Buckeyes, but the problem is Purdue isn't very good. The Buckeyes cannot sleep walk into this one, or an upset could be in the making. The Bucks need some serious momentum to building heading into rivalry games with PSU and The University of Michigan. OSU: 27--PU: 9
Hoying: Dang, the Boilers can't win the Leaders division anymore. However, the Buckeyes are in prime position to build some momentum going into the season showdown with You Know Who (after they trash a shattered PSU team next week). The Bullets need some confidence after struggling all day with a better-than-advertised Hoosier attack, and the pedestrian Purdue offense is just what the doctor ordered. Run the ball, don't take stupid chances, and move one step closer to that division crown. OSU: 31--PU: 10Schweinfurth: The battle cry for the Bucks this weekend should be "REVENGE!" Especially after Danny Hope went on record and telling OSU fans to "Get used to it." The Silver Bullets had their wake up call against Indiana last week in what was a classic let down game. Purdue, much like the Hoosiers, has a hard time stopping the run. Watch for Boom, Hyde, and Braxton to have big games on the ground. Walrus ball has been working, so don't look for too many passes this week. Bucks win going away. OSU: 38 -- PU: 9

Upset Special

Draper:
Wake over Clemson (stretch)
Auer: Florida over South Carolina, Illinois over Michigan
Hoying: Texas A&M over Kansas StateSchweinfurth: TCU over Boise St.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Five Thoughts of the Week that was--Week 10

1) Events in Penn State are disgusting and make all other institutional comparisons pale in comparison.
Joe Paterno MUST go. That's all there is to this. No, he was not the person involved in the act, but withholding information of sexual assault on children from the authorities and keeping a sexual predator associated with the program is beyond wrong. Tressel paid for his negligence for not reporting extra benefits (rightfully so). This isn't even close! This involves the lives of many children, their friends, their families that will NEVER be the same due to this monster. What makes this so gross is that some of it could have been prevented by people following basic moral standards and standing up for what is right. Joe Paterno always has preached 'Success with Honor'....maybe he should practice what he preaches. An illustrious football career will never escape this and it never should. Penn State should be ashamed of what it tacitly allowed to happen. Ignorance is not an excuse when it's your job to be informed (looking at you Gene Smith). OSU Tatgate, USC benefits, Oregon payments, Auburn's 'perfectly legit' recruitment using pay for play....these are nothing compared to the atrocities in State College.

2) Arkansas can cause total chaos.

After the 'Game of the...zzzzz', many have crowned the Bayou Bengals and buried the Tide. No one is examining the armageddon that could ensue if Arkansas manages to win out (including a win in Baton Rouge). Yes, that may be unlikely, but certainly not impossible. If that were to happen (and LSU/Bama win their other games), there will be a 3 way tie in the SEC West. No longer will the talk be as much about a rematch as it will be about who will play in the SEC championship and which 2 get BCS bids. The SEC tie breaker as I read it states that the tie breaker that matters (all others are tied) is final BCS rankings. However, if the top 2 teams in the BCS are within 5 spots of each other, the head-to-head matchup determines the championship game participant. This means that the highest BCS team may not ascend to the SEC title game. LSU>Bama>Ark>LSU....contradiction circle. This is extremely similar to the 3 way tie in the Big 12 South in 2007 with Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Talk about absolute craziness ensuing if this happens.....and I hope it does.
3) The so called 'Game of the Century'....sucked. Please, please, please, please, please DON'T have a rematch.

All hype (SEC, SEC, SEC) and no substance; that's the story of this game. Yes, the two defenses on the field were phenomenal and most of those players will be playing on Sundays, but on the other side of the ball....blech. Yeah, Trent Richardson will make the next step, but that's about it. Missed field goals left and right, horrendous QB play, etc. This game was boring. I don't want to take anything away from the defenses, but pitchers' duels are boring. There was some big hits but it's like beating a Sun Belt offense. I don't judge these defenses based on this game (although other games have proven them stout). The only thing I took away from this is we don't need a rematch. Bama had their shot, and they lost....at home. They're done unless LSU loses a game (even then, done barring Arkansas madness). Rematches are stupid especially when Bama lost AT HOME. I don't care if it was close. They lost. Let another team with the same record (or better) have their shot. I don't want to see that atrocity replayed for all the marbles...even if it is the greatest conference of all time (sarcasm). I learned that these 2 teams may be the best to offer this year, but they don't stack up with the best teams of the decade, let alone the 'century'. Stop the hype machine of the SEC. It's a mediocre conference with 3 elite teams and a lot of garbage.

4) The trick play by Bama was a calculated gamble and a good call that just happened to fail

Saban was getting crushed left and right after the game for letting Maze throw a pass down by the redzone. The thing is, it was a good call. If he didn't hang the ball in the air for 20 minutes, if that 6'6'' TE could fight off a 6'1'' CB, if the line could have protected for more than 2 seconds; it's a TD and a fantastic gutsy call that seals a win (one TD would do it). Instead, Murphy's Law reared it's ugly head and LSU got the ball at the one. In hindsight, that shouldn't have mattered either with the LSU offensive ineptitude. Urban Meyer is the only one who defended the call...and I trust his coaching instincts more than the jokers ESPiN and CBS throw out to tout the merits of the SEC.

5) Oklahoma is in great shape to play for the title

Stanford loses to Oregon, and Oklahoma controls their destiny. Yep, that's it. Boise has no chance. Oregon can't jump them with only one quality opponent left. Oklahoma State plays the Sooners. Arkansas will lose to LSU or knock them out and be very hard pressed to jump OU. I think it's also clear that Bama will fall below the Sooners if Bedlam goes Norman way. Even the Chokelahoma standard might allow Big Game Bob to back into the Championship...but I'm the only person who believes in the Pokes. The wins over Florida State, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, and potentially Oklahoma State will be enough for OU to have earned a shot even with that hiccup (barring an undefeated Stanford)...but let's not crown the Sooners Bedlam champions just yet.

Draper Index Week 10

Draper Index Week 10
1) LSU
2) Oklahoma
3) Oklahoma State (razor thin margin behind OU)
4) Alabama
5) Oregon
6) Stanford
7) Boise State
8) Arkansas
9) Clemson
10) Auburn
11) TCU
12) Virginia Tech
13) Nebraska
14) South Carolina
15) Wisconsin
16) USC
17) Penn State
18) Michigan State
19) Ohio State
20) Texas
21) Kansas State
22) Southern Miss
23) Notre Dame
24) Houston
25) Georgia

No real surprises other than the resurgence of OU (again, one bad loss won't kill them with their quality wins--FSU, TAMU, KSU, Missouri). TCU and Auburn are ranked too highly, but that's vestiges of last year's success (can't wash out if they don't lose). UGA, Southern Miss, and Houston enter the rankings finally with their bad schedules. UGA bounced back finally but the Cougars and Eagles are in due to their gaudy schedules. This also mirrors the polls with the B1G dominating the teens.

My ballot
1) LSU
2) Oklahoma State
3) Stanford
4) Alabama
5) Oregon
6) Oklahoma
7) Boise State
8) Arkansas
9) Clemson
10) Virginia Tech
11) Wisconsin
12) Michigan State
13) Nebraska
14) Penn State
15) USC
16) Houston
17) South Carolina
18) Ohio State
19) Kansas State
20) Georgia
21) Texas
22) Auburn
23) Georgia Tech
24) Florida State
25) Southern Miss

Predicted BCS matchups:
BCS National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose
: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar: Alabama vs. Boise State
Orange: Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Note: If Stanford makes the Championship Game...things get really interesting from a BCS selection standpoint. The implications could include Oklahoma State being excluded completely even with only 1 loss (assuming a loss to OU will be the only thing that catapults Stanford above). The reasoning is as follows
BCS Title: LSU vs. Stanford
Rose: B1G winner vs. at large #2
Fiesta: Big 12 vs. at large #3
Sugar: at large #1 vs. at large #4
Orange: Big East vs. ACC

Sugar selects Bama (or LSU if Bama weasels back to championship)
Rose selects Oregon to keep the Pac 12 tie in
If OU is the Big 12 rep (assumed if OSU loses to the sooners), Fiesta will not select Ok State and rematch. Choices are Boise St, Big East Champion, or other.

Scenario 1) I believe they will take Boise in which case, the Sugar happily selects Ok State, and Orange gets stuck with Big East champ.
Scenario 2) They take the Big East champ.......this will not happen
Scenario 3) Craziness. The Fiesta goes for money and selects a B1G school like Wisc, MSU, Nebraska, or UM due to the huge fan base and lots of money. The Sugar would then be forced to choose between Boise (assuming they are in the top 4) and Big East champ. They choose Boise and Orange is stuck with Big East--Orange gets stuck with Big East regardless because NO ONE will take them.

The Cowboys better hope to make the championship or at least have Stanford not make it. Their only other hope for an at large big is for the Fiesta to go for the rematch of OU/Boise. Craziness is coming.....oh yeah, if Arkansas wins out, the SEC is a TOTAL mess. Let's hope that happens too!


Sunday, November 06, 2011

Grading the Bucks Week 10--Indiana

Offense: B
I was pleased with the offensive performance on the ground. With Boom, Hyde, and Miller all eclipsing the 100 yard mark, the running game was clearly working. I believe OSU had 7.6 yards per carry which is just stupid good. However, the offense also includes the passing game which was pedestrian to below average. Miller missed some open targets, but more worrisome, he was sacked by Indiana at least 6 times. This is unacceptable. I will also say those sacks are on him. The O-Line was giving him FOREVER to find his targets but he was slow in his decision making. That may become an issue vs. a better defense in PSU. Offensive line blocked very well; running game was awesome; decision making was sub par, as was the receiver play (key drop by Philly when Miller hung in the pocket and got popped).

Defense: D
Yikes...what was that? This was a pathetic performance from the Bullets against a really bad team. Yes, the Hoosier offense is the better half of the team....but it's still Indiana. Hankins and Simon were driving over the offensive line, but the option was run away from them leaving them tackling a non-ball carrier. The secondary was atrocious going up against receivers who have no business hanging around in Ohio Stadium. Howard made a nice interception to seal the game, but let's be honest, Ohio State being up a TD in the 4th quarter is unacceptable versus IU. Roby made a bunch of misreads after a stellar game vs. the Badgers. Bryant has been a disappointment all year. The mobile QB curse with the Buckeyes always looms large. Thankfully, we only have 1 left in Ann Arbor.

Special Teams: B

Nothing of note here. Punts were fine, kicks were fine, returns were fine, coverage was fine. Can't go to an A because no big plays or clutch kicks, but they were solid enough. Can't even say more because they did their job.

Coaching: C-
Say it with me: "Fire Jim Bollman". How do you continually call deep pass plays with a QB who can't make decisions quick enough and eschew the running game that is absolutely destroying the Hooisers? All the dumb fans keep saying he needs to be 'balanced' and throw the ball more; that is just wrong. You play to your strengths. We are Ohio State. We should be able to look at Indiana, tell them where we are running, and dare them to stop us--they can't. The only team that could have defeated OSU on Saturday in the Shoe was in scarlet and gray--and the playcalling tried to make it happen. Practice passing is well and good....when the game is in hand. That game wasn't in hand until late due to the poor defensive play, but even so, more running plays would have led to over 500 yards rushing--yeah, I believe that. The defensive coaching was not much better with soft zones against the option, but the black mark was on the offensive coaching staff. I'd say the defensive failure was due to lackadaisical play by the players and the offensive drive stalling was due to coaching. Run until they prove they can stop it (sure you can pepper a few passes in to keep them honest, I'm not that dumb). The athletes on this team suggest a 75-25 split of run to pass, and that's not bad.