Thursday, November 24, 2016

Week 13 - Beat Blue

Standings
1) Hoying              35-15        (4-8 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    31-14        (5-6 upset)
3) Draper               33-17        (3-9 upset)
4) Seeberg             30-20        (4-8 upset)

Auburn Tigers @ Alaba_a Cri_son Tide
Draper: Iron Bowl always provides an opportunity for Southerners to gloat about hate rivalries, but there is such a talent gap here that I don't expect a whole lot out of the Tigers.  They played the Dabo's Tigers close early on but that was at Jordan-Hare and not vs the Tide.  The Tide is rolling like no other but there was a little lapse vs. Chattanooga (it took way too long to put T.O. University away).  I would be concerned.  Hurts and Co. should take care of business without a lot of trouble on their way to Atlanta.  Aub: 10 -- Ala: 28
Hoying: Don't be fooled, folks. This isn't 2013, when a very good but under-the-radar Auburn group rose up and snakebit a very good but vulnerable Tide. This is a rather lopsided pairing. The Tigers have followed up a convincing roasting of the Hogs with puzzlingly close wins over the Rebels and Vanderbilt and a loss to Georgia. Why? The offense isn't working. Oh, I bet that won't be an issue against the Saban death squad. Just ask USC (6 points), or Tennessee (10 points), or LSU (ZERO points). Just don't try any field goals, Nick. Aub: 10--Ala: 35

Schweinfurth: Auburn is over rated and not very good. The Tide are very good. I don't care if this is a rivalry, the SEC is the Tide and everyone else right now. Beat Blue Aub: 10--Ala: 42
Seeberg:  Is this Auburn squad capable of pulling another crazy upset in the Iron Bowl?  In theory, yes.  Auburn is sitting inside the top 20 with an excellent rushing attack, except Ka_ryn Pettway is still uncertain to play and Auburn doesn't have a lot else going for it.  The Tide feast on one-di_ensional offenses *cough LSU cough* and this one will likely be si_ilar.  Tide win...again.  *sigh* again.  Aub: 6--Ala: 31

Washington Huskies @ Washington State Cougars
Draper: While I whiffed on the Cougs last week, I have decided to not give up the ship.  Coach Leach is still a crazy genius and now they return to the Palouse in the rivalry that surpasses all in the Northwest.  Washington got back on track last week and looks to get to the Pac12 Title, but the Cougs stand in the way.  Jake Browning is fantastic, but he hasn't faced a lot of adversity (except vs. USC).  This should be a nailbiter, but the Cougar Air Raid should give the Huskies fits.  UW is going to crack under the pressure and Wazzu gets another shot at Colorado.  UW: 30 -- WSU: 34
Hoying: Here it is, the final battle for the Pac-12 North, just as we all predicted back in August. Yes, just 8 years after the Crapple Cup, we've skipped back to the early 2000's when these two were regular Rose Bowl contenders. The Cougars are super-duper out of the playoffs at this point, but ruining their rival's chances at a trip to Phoenix or Atlanta would taste just as sweet. So who's the crisp Fuji and who's the grainy Red Delicious this year? Look no further than their recent losses to give you a clue. Both were frustrated by great Pac-12 South defenses. On the other side of the ball, the Husky D was bloodied, but unbowed. Playing against great defense really drags Wazzu out of its groove, and I don't think the Coogs can slow down Washington enough to keep pace. UW: 27--WSU: 24

Schweinfurth: This is actually a decent Apple Cup this year (think back to two 0-11 schools...). Washington had a few issues when faced with a decent offense. WSU has a great offense. I just don't think that the Huskies can control the Pirate Leach's offense. Beat Blue UW: 31--WSU: 35
Seeberg:  The Cougars hadn't beaten anybody with a pulse all season until acquitting the_selves relatively well in Boulder before losing by two TDs.  UW, on the other hand, has even _ore to play for in the first relevant Apple Cup in 15 years with a decent shot at crashing the playoff party with a win here and in the PAC-12 title clash.  Crazy things happen in these rivalries, but until WA-ZOO actually beats a decent foe I can't in good faith expect it to happen.  Huskies win an intriguing one.  UW: 41--WSU: 35


Louisiana State Tigers @ Texas A&_ Aggies
Draper: LSU had a chance to prove they had a little left in the tank and absolutely blew it with a few ridiculous defensive plays allowing the Gators inept offense to actually score.  There was no reason for the Tigers to crap the bed but they did and the season is absolutely donezo.  The Aggies have been in a clear freefall and their season is just as big of a disaster as the Tigers.  Based on straight up ability, I still have faith that the highpowered Aggie offense won't crack the high powered LSU defense while the craptastic LSU offense does just enough.  Another boring SEC fight.  LSU: 13 -- Aggies: 10
Hoying: You know it's approaching season's end when LSU and the Aggies each have about 4 or 5 losses and are still ranked because SEC west (I don't see Indiana or the Terps ranked by that logic...). How did we get here? LSU forgot how to actually advance the ball (better not give the ball to Fournette on the 1-yard line), and the Aggies forgot how to stop anyone. So, just like every year. And, just like every year, I'd be a fool to pick the Aggies after October. LSU: 20--Aggies: 17
Schweinfurth: These two are not good this year. I really believe that both are very overrated and get the SEC benefit of the doubt. With that said, if Fournette touches the ball over 10 snaps, the Tigers will win. Beat Blue. LSU: 28--Aggies: 17
Seeberg:  For the love of all things holy, how are the Aggies still ranked?  I don't know- but playing LSU with a backup quarterback is not exactly a winning recipe.  The Tigers looked dreadful (and foolish) playing Florida in an "away" contest in Baton Rouge and still losing, but they have the best unit in this one (Tigers' D) and the best player (Fournette), and that should be enough to hand the Aggies their, what, 6th loss which could FINALLY knock the Aggies out of the rankings, _ercifully.  LSU: 24--Aggies: 10

Utah Utes @ Colorado Buffaloes
Draper: Utah had everything in front of their eyes...and lost to Oregon.  In a standard year, that wouldn't be a big deal, but the Ducks aren't the as they were.  This one is a really tough one for this picker as I just don't believe in the Buffs.  Crazy stat of the CFP: Utah has been ranked in every playoff ranking since its inception.  Can the Utes continue the trend? Can the Buffs keep their thin playoff hopes alive?  In Boulder, I'll give the edge to the Buffs, but I wouldn't be surprised for the Utes to play the spoiler.  UU: 27 -- CU: 28
Hoying: You thought nearly losing to the Spartans last week was bad, Buckeye Nation? The Utes struggled and fell at the hands of their own conference's fading Incredible Hulk, the Oregon Ducks. Now they're locked out of the Pac-12 title, but they can delay Colorado's return to relevance for another year with a big road win. The Buffs are riding the hot hand in this one, with QB Sefo Liufau (*Paul Keels sneezes* *T-Bone busts out laughing*) lighting up Washington State for 450+ yards and 3 scores last weekend. We'll CU in Santa Clara next Saturday for a chance at the Rose Bowl (or perhaps a bigger prize). UU: 20--CU: 31

Schweinfurth: Colorado has looked like the school to beat this year in their division. Utah looked good earlier in the year, and hit a bit of a rough patch. Colorado should win and advance to the Pac-12 title contest. Beat Blue. UU: 21--CU: 38
Seeberg:  It's hard to believe that Colorado boasts a top 10 squad- particularly due to the fact that their best win is a 10-5 thriller (ha) over Stanford.  The Buffaloes O is rolling after facing a what's-defense-again? _ike Leach WSU.  Utah inexplicably crapped the bed against 4-7 Oregon (feels fabulous to type that record next to the Ducks) and has little to play for as a result.  Despite playing UW tough, any squad that loses to this Ducks' tea_ and Cal cannot be trusted to beat these Buffs on the road.  Liufau FTW.  UU: 24--CU: 35 

Florida Gators @ Florida State Se_inoles
Draper: The Noles have a ton of youth but Francois has progresses significantly as the year went on.  The Gators have the defense....but that's it.  Scoring 16 vs. the Tigers last week was a gift that I can't see repeating.  FSU's D has been up and down this year (chiefly down) but they certainly can get at the quarterback with Walker very studly 13 sacks.  Florida has been very stout defensively, but Luke Del Rio and the offense is a putrid wreck.  In Tally, I just don't see the Gators pulling this off.  FSU has 3 losses with only one that can be considered 'bad' on a last second FG.  Dalvin Cook has turned on the jets as the season has progressed and I expect one last big one vs. the Gators.  FSU won't be going anywhere in the CFP or in the ACC ranks, so the goal is undefeated vs. the state of Florida--and it will happen.   UF: 13 -- FSU: 27
Hoying: Now approaching Sack City. The FSU D-Line has been on a tear, racking up 41 sacks, and Florida has added 28 of their own (in one fewer outing). Florida State QB DeAndre Francois hasn't been cursed with Browns-esque pass protection lately, but there's a big difference between facing the likes of BC and Syracuse and staring down a hungry Gator D. On the other side of the ball, if the FSU front doesn't get to terrible Florida QB Luke Del Rio, they...will still probably be OK, as the Gator O has been woefully inept all year long. Absent a few defensive scores by UF, I don't see a road upset here. UF: 17--FSU: 27

Schweinfurth:  These two are just not good. The 'Noles haven't won against a top 25 squad this year. Florida is overrated and, while the winner of the SEC east, that division if just terrible. Bad QB play will be the difference in this one. Beat Blue UF: 13--FSU: 20
Seeberg:  Well, I thought I had a bead on this contest until the Gators beat LSU in Baton Rouge last week.  I still believe FSU is the superior side here, but again it's rivalry week and anything goes.  Playing in Tallahassee can't hurt FSU's cause, and Florida only has the rivalry pride to play for as their appearance in the SEC title clash is assured.  FSU has little to play for too, but I just don't like the Gators and this victory could help salvage a season once bereft with expectations for Ji_bo Fisher and Co.  UF: 16--FSU: 24

That School Up North @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: No, it's not 1 vs. 2 a la  2006.  Yes, these squads each have a loss. But that doesn't lessen the stakes.  Everything is on the line in Cbus and that's the way it should be.  Stupid PSU has prevented the winner-take-all situation, but it's likely the winner enters the CFP while the loser takes another year of thinking what could have been.  The Bucks have been inconsistent to say the least on offense, butt the horses are certainly there.  The Wolverines can run the ball, but I don't think anyone has faith in O'Korn to run the offense at this point.  The defenses for both squads are fantastic so this contest will likely be decided by one or two plays that shift the balance.  The Shoe should give the Bucks the edge in the big play category.  Let's not forget about Death and Taxes (Curtis and Weber) as well as J. T.  when we look at big play potential.  Urban vs. Harbaugh part 2 ends in the Buckeye's favor again behind a solid balanced attack of the OSU and a stifling defensive showing.  TTUN: 17 -- OSU: 27
Hoying: It doesn't get any bigger than this. No, not because it's #2 vs. #3 (besides the obvious #1 vs. #2 in 2006, the 1968, 1970, 1973, and 1997 showdowns were at least as big), but because it's the Scarlet and Gray vs. the O'Korn and Blue. Our young Bucks have exceeded expectations this season, but the year is never a success without a win over the Wolverines. We appear to have dodged the potential bullet of losing to a guy called "Wilton," and his backup has been a bit too careless with the ball dating back to his days at Houston. I don't know whether to be less afraid of O'Korn or Jabrill Peppers, ESPN's favorite fabricated hype recipient since Fighting Irish LB Te'o was getting blasted backwards by the Tide O-line in 2012. The Wolverine D is plenty nasty despite Peppers, and I don't expect to see JT throwing at star CBs Jourdan Lewis or Channing Stribling. This one will get done on the ground with the triple threat of Barrett, Weber, and Curtis. Jake Butt could sneak into the endzone once or twice, but the Silver Bullets lock down the Scarlet Zone and preserve the victory. Urban advances to 5-0 against That School Up North and sends another one of their senior classes to wander hopelessly for the rest of their lives wondering what it would've been like to steal one win against their rival. TTUN: 20 -- OSU: 28

Schweinfurth: This is the one contest every year that I love to hate. Seriously, this week is all anticipation then four hours of nerves. With that said, TTUN has only been tested once on the road and they lost. To Iowa. Fail. The Wolverines are kind of bad on the road. Yes, thier D is pretty good, but the Horseshoe is going to be rocking all day long. If Speight plays, the Silver Bullets are going to tee off on that shoulder. If O'Korn starts, well he is bad. This is JT's week. Weber is going to truck Peppers and it will be glorious. Go Bucks, BEAT BLUE!!!!!! TTUN: 10--OSU: 42 (because that's Urban's winning number)
Seeberg:  GO SPARTY.  Okay, that's out of the way.  Personally, I think it's irrelevant who starts for TTUN at QB, scoring was going to be a huge issue anyway.  Also, the forecast is not so dreadful as it was in East Lansing last week, so Urban and Co. should recall how to properly call the offense.  It's likely that Peppers will see extra duty to help their struggling offense, which spells disaster for TTUN's D as he tires.  Also, ANOTHER backup QB all but guaranteed a W.  That doesn't play well historically (see:  Oklaho_a).    PLEASE let Weber and Curtis run wild, keep J.T. clean, watch PSU choke, and it's on to Indy.  TTUN: 13--OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Vandy over Tenn
Hoying: South Carolina over Cle_son
Schweinfurth: Air Force over Boise State
Seeberg: Toledo over Western Michigan

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Let's Go Bucks: Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 12

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave us a comment and tell us who was too sleep-deprived when he wrote these.

Let's Go Bucks Index

1. Alabama (unchanged)
2. Ohio State (unchanged)
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4. Michigan (unchanged)
5. Wisconsin (up 1)
6. Washington (up 1)
7. Oklahoma (up 1)
8. Penn State (unchanged)
9. Colorado (up 3)
10. USC (up 3)
11. Louisville (down 6)
12. Oklahoma State (up 2)
13. Nebraska (up 2)
14. Western Michigan (up 3)
15. Florida (up 7)
16. West Virginia (down 6)
17a. Florida State (up 1)
17b. Houston (unranked)
19. Auburn (unchanged)
20. Boise State (up 1)
21. Tennessee (up 2)
22. Utah (down 11)
23. Washington State (down 3)
24. Stanford (unranked)
25a. Texas A&M (unchanged)
25b. Virginia Tech (unranked)

Others receiving votes: 

Dropped from rankings: #16 LSU, #24 San Diego State

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. Baker Mayfield (QB -- OU)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clem)


Draper

Top 25
1. Bama (unchanged)
2. OSU (unchanged)
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4. Michigan (unchanged)
5. Wisconsin (up 1)
6. Washington (up 1)
7. Oklahoma (up 1)
8. Penn State (up 1)
9. Colorado (up 2)
10. Oklahoma State (unchanged)
11. USC (up 2)
12. Florida (up 11)
13. Louisville (down 8)
14. Western Michigan (up 2)
15. Nebraska (up 2)
16. Florida State (up 3)
17. Houston (up 8)
18. West Virginia (down 7)
19. Auburn (up 2)
20. Washington State (down 2)
21. Boise State (up 2)
22. Utah (down 7)
23. Texas A&M (down 3)
24. Tennessee (unranked)
25. LSU (down 11)

Dropped from Rankings:  SDSU

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL) (Winner)
2. Baker Mayfield (QB -- OU)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB--Clem)


Hoying

Top 25
1. Alabama (unchanged)
2. Ohio State (unchanged)
3. Michigan (up 1)
4. Clemson (down 1)
5. Wisconsin (up 1)
6. USC (up 2)
7. Penn State (up 3)
8. Washington (down 3)
9. Oklahoma (up 5)
10. Colorado (up 6)
11. Houston (up 14)
12. Louisville (down 5)
13. Oklahoma State (up 2)
14. West Virginia (down 5)
15. Tennessee (down 2)
16. Nebraska (down 4)
17. Auburn (up 1)
18. Stanford (up 5)
19. Florida (unchanged)
20. Western Michigan (unchanged)
21. Boise State (unchanged)
22. Florida State (up 2)
23. Utah (down 12)
24. Texas A&M (unranked)
25. Virginia Tech (unranked)

Dropped from rankings: #17 LSU, #22 Washington State

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. D'Onta Foreman (RB -- Texas)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clemson)


Schweinfurth

Top 25
1. Alabama (unchanged)
2. Ohio State (unchanged)
3. Clemson (unchanged)

4. Michigan (up 1)
5. Wisconsin (up 1)
6. Washington (up 1)
7. Oklahoma (up 1)
8. Penn State (up 1)

9. Western Michigan (up 3)
10. Colorado (up 3)
11. Oklahoma State (up 3)
12. Louisville (down 8)
13. USC (up 2)
14. West Virginia (down 4)
15. Florida State (up 1)
16. Nebraska (up 1)
17. Washington State (up 1)
18. Auburn (up 1)

19. Utah (down 8)
20. Boise State (up 1)
21. Florida (up 2)
22. Troy (up 2)
23. Navy (unranked)
24. Houston (unranked)
25. Stanford (unranked)


Dropped out: LSU, SDSU, UNC

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. Jake Browning (QB -- UW)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clem)


Seeberg (updated)

Top 25
1. Alabama (same)
2. Ohio State (same)
3. Clemson (same)
4. Michigan (same)
5. Oklahoma (up 3)
6. Wisconsin (same)
7. Washington (same)
8. Penn State (up 2)
9. Louisville (down 5)
10. Colorado (up 1)
11. USC (up 6)
12. Florida (up 10)
13. Oklahoma State (up 2)
14. Nebraska (same)
15. Florida State (down 2)
16. Houston (up 7)
17. Boise State (up 1)
18. Auburn (up 1)
19. Western Michigan (up 1)
20. Tennessee (unranked)
21. West Virginia (down 12)
22. Virginia Tech (unranked)
23. North Carolina (up 2)
24. Utah (down 12)
25. Wyoming (unranked)

Dropped out:  #16 LSU, #21 Washington State, #24 San Diego State

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. Baker Mayfield (QB -- Okla)
3. Donnell Pumphrey (RB -- SDSU)

Monday, November 21, 2016

Grading the Bucks -- Week 12: MSU

Yeah, it was ugly...and close...but a win is a win and all that matters now is one thing...

Offense: C-
MVP: Mike Weber
Woof...  The running game seemed to be working well, but the gameplan of the last few weeks seemed to disappear.  I like have JT involved in the running game, but maybe not that much.  Give the workhorses a few more touches and let them make plays.  Mike Weber was fantastic aside from a bad fumble in the redzone, with an ability to make something out of nothing more than expected.  Curtis Samuel was pretty nonexistent other than a nice TD grab on a beautiful throw by JT. I wish I could understand how the coaches really see his role in this offense because I have no clue based on the on-field playcalling.  My biggest beef is with the WR play.  JT wasn't throwing perfect darts on every pass, but 95% of them were easily catchable.  I think there were double digit drops and that can't happen in a game where points are a premium.  Go back to the last few weeks of safe (non swing) passes that utilize the middle of the field more and catch the freaking ball.

Defense: B
MVP: Jalen Holmes, Chris Worley, Tyquan Lewis, Sam Hubbard
Something about MSU... Discipline seems to go out the window at times vs. this team.  The defense played well overall, but the big hitters were devastating.  Give LJ Scott credit for finding the holes, but a lot of the big plays seemed to contain Buckeyes out of position on misdirection.  MSU is a 3-8 team and while they have some ability at skill positions, the missed tackles are very concerning from a unit that prides itself on sure tackling.  The line played the pass extremely well but was pushed around on the man up runs and the misdirection screens.  Next week, they'll need to shore up the run defense.

Special Teams: C
This is a tough one.  The fake punt was the most obvious fake punt of all time and yet still succeeded.  However, if you look closely, it appears the Buckeyes were playing the fake the whole time and may have gotten were definitely held in a about 5 places that were missed.  Another muffed punt (paging Demario McCall, your position is ready) is certainly a concern as well as ANOTHER FREAKING KICKOFF OUT OF BOUNDS, but the punting game was solid.  Some good, some bad.  Average performance.

Coaching: C
I still don't get the gameplans of this staff.  When the run is working, they throw and vice versa.  2 major concerns are the weak play recognition early on in the game and the lack of swagger as the game moves forward.  I worry that this team doesn't always have the belief that they can do anything in any situation and can get knocked off kilter very easily (by taking some early haymakers).  Mental fortitude is huge next week and that needs to be solidified.  On field, fundamentals of catching and blocking up front are paramount on offense while the defense needs to maintain discipline (likely) going up against a 2nd game starter.

Overall: B-
Yeah, we won, but I don't feel great about it.  Good news is we've seen this team rebound from a 'so-so' performance before like gang-busters.  Also, getting the monkey off your back is never easy...stupid Michigan State.  All the preseason is finally over.  Only one thing matters now.

BEAT BLUE!!!