Week 4: Turtley Enough for the Turtle Club

Standings:

1.) Draper 9-3 (0-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 8-4 (1-2 upset)
2.) Hoying 8-4 (0-3 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 7-5 (0-3 upset)

After a sleepy nonconference slate, the big games begin in earnest with a full schedule of ranked matchups across America's two top leagues.

Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper:  Is Texas back? They’ve looked pretty pedestrian for 8 of the 12 quarters they’ve played this year (no one cares about Texas St.). The Vols looked solid, but it is still Tennessee.  They’re usually good for one big win a year, and this is clearly the moment (if it happens).  The Texas defense led by Colin Simmons is quite stout, but this will be a true road test (only one until November—seriously, Texas plays ONE road game before November!). I know next to nothing about the Vols, but this feels like it might be the one shot, one opportunity type game.  I don’t think Texas is unbeatable, and Arch was shaky enough at home.  Why not? Rocky Top steals a huge win on the back of turnovers before absolutely faceplanting down the stretch (as is tradition).  Tex: 23—Tenn: 24

Hoying: I have a sneaking suspicion that Texas is a bit overrated at #1. Sure, they have the season’s signature win so far, but they looked really bad for long stretches of that game. Then again, while the Horns are visiting a hostile environment, it’s not like they’re rolling into Columbus to play the Buckeyes again. After 2024’s miracle Playoff run (that ended in disaster), the Vols put up a pathetic 8-5 showing last year, culminating with a loss to Illinois. Texas’s schedule provides plenty of chances for a faceplant but I don’t expect the elder UT to provide much more than a speed bump. Tex: 27—Tenn: 20

Schweinfurth: Everyone is making a big deal about the noise at Neyland. Yes, it is a loud stadium, but you actually have to have a team to back it up. I do think Texas is a very good team. They played well against the Bucks, and it probably looks worse for the Bucks without the crazy bounces. I’m not sold on Tennessee. Win this and I’ll buy in, but the Horns win. Tex: 27—Tenn: 24

Seeberg: Lots of orange here on Saturday, but enough about the dignitaries. I do think Heupel has gotten the Vols back to respectable heights. That “next step” that was supposed to happen in the playoffs a couple years ago turned out to be a boot to the throat from our beloved Buckeyes. This year’s iteration on good old Rocky Top (woo) has a solid offense, as usual, but the defense gives up too many yards between the 20s. Arch showed his newfound red zone prowess against the Bucks and there’s no reason to believe Tennessee will be a stiffer defensive test. Burnt orange > highlighter orange (but those dark grays with that orange do look sweet). The real UT prevails. UT: 34—Tenn: 20

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: TTUN was 1 second* from losing in week 1, looked competent in week 2 vs OU (but that was certainly exposing Mateer), and struggled for a half against UTEP before blowing them out.  Iowa, on the other hand, has been steady old Iowa—blowing out the little sisters of the poor and squeaking by Iowa State.  I have no idea which version of these teams will show up.  I would be all in on Iowa to “Iowa” their way to a victory in the Big House, but the week 2 win over the Clones is concerning. I feel like this is going to be a super boring game in which one big play makes the difference.  The UM defense is quite good, and I feel like there’s enough explosive plays to keep scUM undefeated.  Iowa: 13—UM: 17
Hoying: I'm not one of the people that wants UM to come into Ohio Stadium undefeated. Sure, 2006 was nice, but I'd rather see Michigan ground into dust by the end of October than waiting to ruin their season late (and in the 12 or 24 team Playoff era, one devastating loss isn't enough anyway). So I'm always happy to see the opportunity for Michigan to lose. But Iowa has played one team with a pulse this year, and it took two 4th quarter field goals (i.e., the "Hawkeye Special") for them to overcome their in-state rivals. The Wolverines are finding...something...working with Bryce Underwood at QB, and the defense has been solid all season long. I don't see them losing until they have to face a high powered offense (one that won't play Michigan's game). Iowa: 9--UM: 17

Schweinfurth: Iowa is a better version of Western Michigan. Control the ball, play good defense. Oklahoma isn’t great and the Wolverines took advantage. I am not sold on Michigan, and I probably won’t until Underwood can actually read a defense. Iowa wins in a rock fight. Iowa: 14—UM: 9

Seeberg:  This game has a very similar feel to UM’s surprising win over the Sooners, with one glaring difference. See if you can spot it. It’s in Ann Arbor. Iowa has an excellent, disciplined defense (see: Venables/OU). Iowa has a mediocre offense (see: OU/Mateer). Iowa takes care of the ball on offense (see: literally anyone other than Mateer). No short fields is a problem for the winged helmets. Wonder if Sherrone can watch this L on probation? Iowa: 19—UM: 13

Mississippi Rebels @ Florida Gators

Draper: Welcome to the new expectations, Rebels.  Can Trinidad and Co. keep it rolling on the road? The Gators aren’t your Steve Spurrier/Urban Meyer Gators, but they do seem to be more competent than in years past.  The Swamp (when Gator Nation believes) is the toughest place in the country to play and I expect them to show out. The Rebels are absolutely the better team, but the environment on top of the return to Earth after the Lane Train makes this interesting.  I still lean Rebels, but I won’t be shocked if UF snags a huge home win.  Miss: 31—UF: 27
Hoying: Well I wasn't expecting THAT on the plains last week. The same Auburn team that struggled their way to 17 points against Baylor managed to rack up 39 against Florida. Good on Florida for outscoring them, but Lane Kiffin's fingerprints are still all over this Rebel offense that's put up 73 points in 2 ranked games so far. You're going to need to play defense to beat them and the Gators still aren't there yet under first year coach Jon Sumrall. I'll believe Florida is back when I see it. Miss: 38--UF: 27

Schweinfurth: That was such an emotional game last week for the Rebels. So much so, that I don’t know if they’ll be able to crank it back up this week. This one’s in the Swamp and not a fun place to play. This Florida team is better, but not great. I just think the emotional drop last week does the Rebs in. Miss: 28—UF: 35

Seeberg: Ah yes, the infamous “let’s get an SEC team into the 20s for another ranked vs ranked conference matchup!” Game, volume 1 of 2 this weekend alone. Barf. Then again, Florida is favored in this one? Why?? For allowing 39 points to an Auburn team that managed 17 against Baylor? I know Vegas knows infinitely more than I ever will, but I just don’t see it here. The Gators won’t get enough stops over four quarters. Miss: 34—UF: 24

Oregon Ducks @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: What are these teams? Oregon was the preseason darling, but faceplanting in Stillwater was a mystery (on top of their mediocre play in general –outside of Portland St.).  USC had tons of hope, but the defense has been the usual Lincoln Riley experience (Buttgers had them on the ropes for God’s sake).  This will be a litmus test for both teams. The winner is still alive in the playoff run, but the loser is in big, big, big trouble. A 2^nd loss for the Ducks is devastating with their schedule and a loss for the Trojans just feels like “same ol’ same ol’”.  If the Coliseum was a tough place to play, I’d think the Trojans would carry the day, but the way SC has limped through the season has me reverting to priors.  Give me the Ducks in a squeaker.  Ore: 31—USC: 30
Hoying: I was a bit surprised in the preseason when Oregon wasn't crowned under the "this year it's their turn" logic that astroturfed Penn State last season. Perhaps the conventional wisdom has grown a little wiser. Anyway, if you thought Florida's defense was bad, look away from the Ducks. Boise State got a few lucky bounces to stay with Oregon down the stretch but the Ducks got completely run through by Oklahoma State a week later. Beating Portland State 84-0 puts a nice number on the page but doesn't do much to assuage concerns that Oregon may be spiraling this season. A week ago I'd have believed USC was well primed to knock the Ducks off their perch (do Ducks perch?) until they struggled way too hard against bad bad Rutgers. We'll charitably call it a look-ahead game rather than sound the alarm on another lackluster USC defense. Then again, they couldn't really stop Louisiana the week before either...I don't know what to do with this one. The Oregon home field advantage has been as good as any team's during the Dan Lanning era, but they won't have it on their side this Saturday night. USC throws the first wrench into the anticipated Big Ten order this fall. Ore: 30--USC: 34

Schweinfurth: I have been laughing at the Ducks all season so far. They haven’t been out of a game, but they have looked like straight trash. USC isn’t exactly a world beater, but Oregon likes to keep in interesting. Lanning’s squad should bounce back here, but it comes down to the last drive again. Ore: 42—USC: 38

Seeberg: I know it’s early in the season so confusion is still rampant, but boy do I have NO idea what to make of this game. USC has looked good(?) so far but struggled, albeit literally ALL the way across the country, to put away Rutgers. Meanwhile, Dan Lanning’s regularly scheduled collapse was fast forwarded by three full months, inexplicably losing to a different OSU. Does Lincoln finally get a quasi-statement win in LA? Mestemaker is pretty mobile, seems to give the Ducks problems, and Maiava is definitely a notch better. I’m torn between overreacting to the Ducks’ loss and not being too stubborn to pick who we all thought was the better team in August. Regardless, expect a lot of points.  Heck with it. Odyssey was a hit. Go Trojans. Ore: 31—USC: 41

Illinois Fighting Illini @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Ah, everyone’s favorite rivalry that no one cares about. There were hopes in the preseason that the Illini would take a step forward….but alas, no.  Bielema’s squad has been super uninspiring.  There’s not really any aspect of the game in which I expect the Illini to take charge.  However, as we all know, Columbus is a mess and everything Buckeye football is DISASTROUS! They LOST a game! Kent State was only a 56 point win! Time to prep for next year…. Now, obviously, I am on Team R-E-L-A-X, BUT…there are some things that need cleaning up.  The short yardage failures from last year and this year thus far MUST improve.  Also, Sayin’s blindness in the middle of the field is infuriating (speaking as the person in C-deck last week screaming about how open Inniss was on 3^rd down in the middle of the endzone).  These are not the endtimes, but there is plenty of room for improvement.  Things I want to see: defense needs to dial up a little more pressure (more Pettijohn and Wilder please), Sayin needs to take some shots when open (to people other than 4—especially in the middle of the field), and the offensive line needs to man up and push people off the ball (especially in short yardage gotta have it situations).  It won’t be fixed in our first B1G match, but we need to see some positive movement.  Bucks roll, but let’s continue to get better.  Ill: 10—OSU: 48
Hoying: I try to look for the positives when watching Buckeye football. The team never plays any better in response to my criticism so I might as well enjoy what I'm seeing either way until the ref puts a phantom second back on the clock the clock hits zero. But despite walloping Kent State by 56 points, with the best per-play domination of any team playing last weekend, I didn't feel good watching it. The defense played well and broke out a few new wrinkles (keep Pettijohn on the field!) but the offense continued to struggle in short yardage situations to the tune of 1 third down conversion in 8 attempts, and two blown fourth downs. Sooner or later this team's going to need to get a yard when it really matters, and we haven't been able to do that consistently in the last 4 years with the exception of the magical 2024 Playoff run. The good news for now is that Illinois appears to have taken a significant step backward since last season. Other than star wideout (and Ohio native) Collin Dixon, the Illini don't have a ton of weapons. Last year Illinois wasn't able to get much of anything going until going up-tempo toward the end of the game, leaving Bret Bielema to lament not using tempo from the start. If he comes out guns blazing on Saturday, we could see an interesting clash of styles from Ohio State's, shall we say, more measured approach. But the Buckeyes can't afford to waste too many possessions, because they're heading to Kinnick next week for their first visit since Brian Ferentz's finest offensive performance. October is going to make or break this season, and the Bucks need to fix their problems. Now. Ill: 14--OSU: 38

Schweinfurth: I watched the Bucks game last week after hearing all the negative things. Yes there were issues on third and fourth down. However, I think Day has their attention. I won’t be surprised if Jacoby gets more RB snaps than Bo in this one. He just seems to run harder. I’d like to see more of Legend Bey and Chris Henry Jr. One of those guys needs to step up. The defense has been fine and only gave up points in super garbage time. Illinois will have their hands full. The turtle stays in Columbus. Ill: 7—OSU: 38

Seeberg: Amazing part about this game? Illinois lost to Duke, which is a quality loss, and it’s not even basketball season! Bert has Illinois up to basically "Wisconsin lite" standards after the debacle that was the last decade or so in Champaign. Obviously we need to see a better run game from our scarlet and gray and for the love of all that is good in the world can we get the TEs off the field please? They can’t catch or block this season. Spread-to-run and zone blocking should be the new marching orders. Oh, and 4. Lots of 4. To their credit, the Bucks have largely avoided sleepy starts this season that plagued the last couple of years, hope that continues as well. Ho hum 3-score W. Ill: 13—OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Wake over Louisville
Hoying: Wisconsin over Penn State
Schweinfurth: USC over Bama
Seeberg: Iowa State over Utah