Sunday, October 30, 2011

Draper Index--Week 9

Draper Index Post Week 7
1) LSU
2) Bama
3) OU (win over undefeated KSU was huge)
4) OSU
5) Stanford
6) Boise State
7) Oregon
8) Clemson
9) Nebraska
10) Arkansas
11) Auburn (just wait...)
12) South Carolina
13) Virginia Tech
14) Penn State
15) TCU
16) Michigan State
17) USC
18) Wisconsin
19) Kansas State
20) Ohio State (rankings are unbiased, I swear)21) Michigan (In the words of Zalensky: 'Gahd, I love that')
22) Washington
23) Georgia Tech
24) West Virginia
25) Houston

I'm pleased with the rankings overall. Remember, the purpose of my computer rankings is to mirror the BCS and I think it's doing a bang-up job. The winner of the LSU/Bama game will have some major separation after this epic classic on Sat and the loser won't be hurt too much. Let's just hope it's a good game.

Notes:
--OSU over Michigan is reflecting how they entered the season but more importantly the strength of schedule. UM's best opponent was MSU and then....Notre Dame?....yeah. Not that big of a surprise after the upset in Columbus
--Auburn is riding high because all losses were against top 10 teams. Wait until Georgia and Bama
--Clemson's loss in Atlanta wasn't year ending as GT is in the rankings
--Houston gets NO LOVE but they've played NO ONE
--OU was seriously hurt by the traditional hiccup, but a beatdown in Manhattan was just what the doctor ordered. Not to mention big wins in Tally and Dallas. Look out for Bedlam!
--PSU is living off the dregs...give it time
--UGA isn't ranked but they have no good wins (UF is an ok win, but nothing special). They'll be ranked if they keep winning (currently 26)
--There are clear breaks after 2 and after 4 which is not surprising.

If I had a vote, here's my ballot:
1) LSU
1a) Bama (yeah, they're tied until Sat)3) Oklahoma State
4) Stanford
5) Boise State (tenuous)
6) Oklahoma
7) Oregon
8) Arkansas
9) Nebraska
10) Clemson
11) South Carolina
12) Virginia Tech
13) Michigan State
14) Arizona State
15) USC
16) Kansas State
17) Michigan
18) Auburn
19) Ohio State
20) Penn State
21) Georgia
22) Florida State
23) Houston
24) Georgia Tech
25) West Virginia

Notes:
--Yeah, I'm giving love to my Alma Maters, but I think it's deserved. OSU got some huge wins (beat number 15 back to back) and they look tough to beat now that schedule eases. FSU is far better than their record but left everything in Tally vs. OU. Should have (would have with EJ) beaten Clemson and Wake Forest.
--No love for bad schedules--looking at you KSU, PSU, Michigan, Boise, Georgia, Houston, Big East
--The top 7 are separated from the pack in my opinion. Look out for Nebraska to build on some momentum, but no chance vs. the top 5.

BCS predictions--pecking order for at large picks is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
BCS Championship: Bama vs. Oklahoma State (yeah, I flipped on the LSU/Bama winner)
Rose: Nebraska vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise
Orange:
Clemson vs. West Virginia

The B1G champ vs. Pac 12 champ is locked into the Rose. Clemson is locked into the Orange. The Sugar replaces Bama with LSU without blinking an eye. Fiesta gets 2 quick picks to replace Ok State and select the 1st at large. OU is the easy first pick with no doubt. While Boise/OU is the sexy rematch from 2006 in the Fiesta, I think the resurgence of Stanford, and more importantly, Andrew Luck will drive the Fiesta to select the Cardinal for TV ratings. Neither Boise nor Stanford will pull a large amount of money to the area so go with the better TV game. The Sugar grabs Boise to avoid the Big East flop even though Boise doesn't have a huge fan base. The game will be watched for Cinderella appeal but LSU will romp the Broncos. The Orange gets stuck with the last pick (aka the Big East Champ). This will hopefully be the last year of their auto-bid due to conference implosion.

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