The AP National Title - What Needs to Happen

With undefeated teams dropping all around the country, it appears that the pipe dream of an Associated Press national title as a consolation prize for a 12-0 season is inching closer and closer.  The only undefeated team left (besides Ohio State) is Notre Dame, so if they lose and we win, we have it in the bag, right?  Not so fast.  As you have undoubtedly noticed, 1-loss Alabama and Georgia have moved ahead of the Buckeyes, even though both teams have similar resumes to Ohio State.  This teaches us that the AP voters (1) believe the hype that playing in the SEC is like playing in the NFL, (2) have no faith at all in the B1G, and (3) really don't want an ineligible team to win the title.

So, is our situation completely hopeless?  Not quite.  If there's a wide gulf between the Ohio State and the BCS champion, the voters will have a tough time justifying denying the Buckeyes the #1 spot.  Let's take a look at the possible roadblocks to unseating Ohio State at the top, in order of decreasing threat.

Notre Dame

The Irish are undefeated, they played a tougher schedule than Ohio State, and if they win out, they'll be unanimously chosen as the champion.  If you really want Ohio State to be the AP champ, then you desperately want Notre Dame to lose to USC tomorrow.  Why?  Because even if they go to the BCS championship and get drilled, that's going to be quite the quality win on the resume of the #2 BCS team.  And the voters may keep a regular-season undefeated Notre Dame over a regular-season undefeated Ohio State anyway.
BEWARE: even if Notre Dame loses to USC, if they somehow manage to win the title game (could happen, keep reading), Ohio State would still be shut out of the AP title.

What needs to happen: Notre Dame loses to USC on Nov 24.
What would help: Notre Dame loses their BCS bowl.

Alabama

The voters apparently didn't see Alabama lose at home to Texas A&M 2 weeks ago, as the Tide are still ranked ahead of the Buckeyes.  Beating Auburn, Georgia, and whoever their title opponent would be isn't going to change anyone's mind, so Alabama needs to lose, and the sooner, the better.  Auburn beating Alabama would be a once-in-a-lifetime upset, so Buckeye Nation needs to pin their hopes on Georgia in the SEC title game, who the voters don't seem to love quite as much.  Again, the Tide could lose in the title game, but this would give a huge boost to whoever beats them.

What needs to happen: Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
What would help: Alabama loses to Auburn (ideal), or Alabama loses the BCS title game.

Georgia

Georgia is perched at #3 in the AP despite having one quality win: Florida.  Few people seriously believe the Dawgs are going to win their last 3 games, so they're not going to be a long-term threat to Ohio State's title hopes.  However, we need them to do as much damage as possible on their way down, and that includes kicking things off with a loss against Georgia Tech on Saturday.  It's a long shot, since the Jackets have only won 1 of their last 11 against Georgia, but a Georgia Tech win this weekend and a Georgia win next weekend would do wonders for the Buckeye title chances.

What needs to happen: Georgia loses to Georgia Tech on Nov. 24.
What would help: Georgia loses to Alabama (if Auburn beats Alabama), or Georgia loses the BCS title game.

Florida

I know, Oregon is above Florida in the AP Poll, but if Notre Dame loses this weekend and Florida gets past Florida State, they're passing the Buckeyes on the way to the BCS title game, period.  This presents an obvious solution: Florida must lose to the 'Noles.  Not only will this prevent another SEC-SEC title game (barf) but it would remove the Gators as a threat to a Buckeye title.  If the Gators beat the 'Noles, there's no SEC Championship game trap, since Georgia already clinched the division, so our only remaining hope would be a loss in their BCS game.

What needs to happen: Florida loses to Florida State on Nov. 24.
What would help: Florida loses their BCS game.

Oregon

Now we're starting to get into the less certain threats.  The voters aren't enamored with the Pac-12 at the same level as SEC, but they do love the flashy Oregon offense.  If Oregon can sneak into the Pac-12 title game and somehow make the BCS title game (or even just blast the B1G champ in the Rose Bowl), the voters would be hard-pressed not to move the Ducks above the Bucks.  The easiest solution is for the Ducks is to lose to Oregon State in Corvallis, and the Beavers are good enough to do it.  If UCLA beats Stanford this weekend, an Oregon loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship would also do the trick.  At any rate, if the Ducks don't win the Pac-12, they're probably not a threat to pass the Buckeyes.

What needs to happen: Oregon loses to Oregon State, or Oregon loses to UCLA in Pac-12 Championship.
What would help: Stanford beats UCLA and shuts Oregon out of Pac-12 Championship, or Oregon loses BCS game.

Florida State

True, Kansas State is ranked higher and has played a much, much better schedule.  Even so, if Florida State beats Florida this week, they'll have 2 quality wins far outpacing anything the Wildcats have done, and would probably pass the 'Cats in the AP.  A seemingly easy fix is for Florida State to lose to the Gators, but the Gators are the far more serious threat.  A better solution is for FSU to lose to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game (GT is my new favorite team).  Florida State making it to the title game and losing would not be as disastrous as a 1-loss SEC team doing it.

What needs to happen: Florida State loses to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
What would help: Florida State loses in their BCS game (losing to Florida would NOT help).

Kansas State

The shine is off the apple in Manhattan, Kansas.  The voters are going to have a hard time believing in Kansas State again after Baylor's whooping.  Unfortunately, there's no Big 12 title game, so there's only one more opportunity for K-State to lose before appearing in a BCS game.  However, if the 6 teams above are all out of the way, we'd be safe having the Wildcats go to the BCS Championship and lose.

What needs to happen: Kansas State loses to Texas on Dec. 1.
What would help: Kansas State loses in the BCS Championship Game.

Minor Threats

I have faith that the voters will not put a 2-loss SEC team ahead of an undefeated Ohio State, especially if they play Kansas State, Oregon, or another 2-loss SEC team in the BCS Championship.  The only 1-loss teams left from BCS conferences are Louisville (no), Rutgers (no), and Clemson.  Clemson has zero quality wins as of now, and even if they defeat South Carolina, I have trouble believing that a 1-loss ACC team that didn't even win their own division can move above an undefeated B1G team.


But, of course, I'm getting ahead of myself.  One result this weekend means more than all these (and all other) games this year.

OHIO STATE MUST BEAT BLUE!  GO BUCKS!