BCS Contenders: Blind Resume Analysis

By now, it's become clear that there are 5 undefeated teams vying for 2 spots in the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena.  Each represents one of the 5 "power conferences": Florida State from the ACC, Baylor from the Big 12, Ohio State from the Big Ten, Oregon from the Pac-12, and Alabama from the SEC.

The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table.  There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.

But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding).  I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings).   If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion."  But do the facts support this analysis?  Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.

Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin.  We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.

The resumes (order randomized):

TEAM A
Opponents' record:  31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)

TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)

TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)

TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)

TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)

If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose?  You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest.  Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away).  Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.

A, B, and D are harder to distinguish.  Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule).  At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.

TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)

So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win.  All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best.  Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it.  Who's the best?  Difficult to say.

The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams.  I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished.  However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot.  Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."

By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State

Check back later in the week to see our rankings.