Standings
1) Hoying 44-20 (1-13 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3) Draper 41-23 (3-11 upset)
4) Seeberg 3-3 (0-1 upset)
SEC: Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: I remember 2006 when a team defeated their rival (as a top 5 matchup) and believed the season was over. They had reached the pinnacle, and the championship was a formality. After the game, I believe I watched one of the biggest flops in history as the Gators stomped the Buckeyes and stole the Title. The Bucks were slow, lazy, and unprepared. Seems like we are seeing a repeat here with Auburn. Missouri is one of those teams a coach has to hate planning for: they are good at everything, with no one thing to focus on. Auburn has been great (and lucky), but they've laid it all on the table while Mizzou is quietly waiting for their chance. While Auburn argues against OSU, the Tigers (Missouri brand) are prepping to slow down the Auburn rushing attack. James Franklin and crew steal the 'assumed' SEC championship and send Auburn from arguing about the title game to the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 28
Hoying: On October 30, in our first BCS projections of the season, I predicted that Auburn would land in the Sugar Bowl, not as a replacement for Alabama in the Championship Game, but as the SEC champion. Two miracles against Georgia and Alabama later (propelling me to the top of the picks standings), I...am abandoning my projection. Why? I thought (correctly) that Nick Marshall's dual-threat capability would keep Auburn in the game against Bama long enough for a little rivalry magic to strike. However, across the SEC, Missouri's defense was busy throttling everyone's favorite waning Heisman contender, Johnny Football. Am I implying that Missouri has a better defense than Alabama? Maybe, but what I'm really saying is that I don't expect lightning to strike 3 times. Missouri has been solid in every phase of the game, from James Franklin's excellent quarterback play, to possibly the best stable of receivers in the game, to a fantastic rushing attack behind the one-two punch of Josey and Hansbrough, to the terrific defense led by the SEC's leading sack and TFL leader Michael Sam. Tigers win, jump up to #3 in the BCS (spoilers on two picks below), and bring their magical 2nd SEC season into the Sugar Bowl. Mizzou: 27--Aub: 20
Schweinfurth: Auburn should have "Livin' On A Prayer" as their fight song this year. Seriously? A miracle Hail Mary to end the Georgia game and then that finish last week. One would think that Gus Malzahn's magic has to run out at some point. I believe that will be this week. James Franklin and the Mizzou Tigers are flat rolling right now. I do believe the Missouri defense will give up some points (a good pass rush can be hurt by the misdirection offense). This will not be the SEC Championship games of old. Mizzou: 38--Aub: 35
Seeberg: At this time last week, I would have picked Missouri in this matchup without too much hesitation. James Franklin had returned and I figured they would blow TAMU out pretty handily. Not only was the game close, however, but Mizzou only mustered 28 points against a pretty lousy defense. That said, holding Johnny Sign-a-Football to just 21 points has been no small feat the last two seasons. Despite their offensive struggles, Franklin now has a week of gameplay under his belt since returning from injury and I still believe that the Tigers (Missouri Tigers, that is) have the more multi-dimensional offense which will, in the end, prove the difference. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 21
ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Duke is playing one of their best season's in history and no one is giving them a prayer...and they're right. The Noles have been nearly flawless this season stepping on the throat early and not letting up. The trio of receivers and stellar backfield are not even talked about with Famous Jameis leading the way. Oh yeah, the defense is pretty darn good too. This will be a traditional FSU game of 2013 with a 30+ point halftime lead and a cruise to Pasadena. FSU: 55--Duke: 13
Hoying: Florida State has been the most dominant team in college football this year. The Noles lead in scoring defense and sit second behind Baylor in scoring. Sure, FSU has had its share of cupcakes on the schedule, much like our beloved Buckeyes, but it's not like Duke went 10-2 against any tougher of a schedule. The Blue Devils are a nice story, but they've been squeaking through to the finish. Duke also got to duke it out against a Miami without Duke Johnson, while the Noles licked the Canes even with their best player intact. There's no reason this should be close. Unless...no, there's no reason. FSU: 45--Duke: 13
Schweinfurth: Duke has had a season to be remembered. The Blue Devils have risen from the ashes to become relevant in the ACC for the first time in, oh, forever. David Cutclife and the rest of the Dukies should be truly proud of this magical season. Unfortunately it is all about to come crashing down. Florida State, with or without Jamies Winston, is an absolute force on offense. If Clemson couldn't keep up with the 'Noles, Duke definitely cannot. Expect the Blue Devils to play with some emotion and hang on for part of the first quarter, but then it's all FSU, all night long. FSU: 52--Duke: 20
Seeberg: A recent statement from the Florida State Attorney's office stated that there may be a decision on the impending Jameis Winston issue before the weekend. In other words, the Florida State Attorney's office has a significantly better chance of thwarting FSU's season than the Duke defense does. Fourth-quarter comeback wins against the likes of Wake Forest (whose stadium, it bears mentioning, is roughly 25 miles from my apartment and is barely half-full for most games) make for a good story, but the Seminoles will write the last chapter much to the Blue Devils' dismay. FSU: 52--Duke: 17
Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: Rematch! But in a new place... How good is Stanford? They have good wins, but 2 losses (one good one bad). How good is ASU? Good wins and...2 losses (one good--Stanford, and one eh..). I could see this one going either way, but I'm going with the home team. Todd Graham has his team churning along without the hype of Stanford. Stanford assumes the title after beating Oregon, but Oregon showed their true nature over the last few weeks. Go Sparky! Stan: 20--ASU: 24
Hoying: Aaaagh, this is the worst kind of conference championship game. It's like a reboot of last year's Stanford-UCLA rematch, only with a twist: the team that won the head-to-head this time is less deserving of the title. True, Stanford already beat Arizona State earlier in the season, but the Cardinal has collected two Pac-12 losses since then against teams that ASU beat (Utah and USC). That being said, I don't see any reason why this game shouldn't play out much the same as the first matchup, a convincing Cardinal victory. Home field might make some difference, but not enough to keep Stanford from its first back-to-back Rose Bowls since 1971-72. Stan: 35--ASU: 27
Schweinfurth: I have to be honest when I say that I really have not watched much Pac-12 football this year. Arizona State has played well but has a loss to Stanford already this season. I don't see ASU not turning the ball over a couple times here (you can't put the ball up 50+ times a game and not have a pick or two). This game will be closer than the matchup early in the season but Stanford turns that turnover into points. Stan: 31--ASU: 24
Seeberg: Stanford has been very up and down the last month: dominating Oregon, then losing to USC. Annihilating Cal in a rivalry game, then struggling to put away Notre Dame. ASU has not lost since early October, but a couple of weeks before that they were handled pretty easily by- you guessed it- Stanford. The Sun Devils get this title game at home and are coming off a whipping of their in-state rivals who had just whipped Oregon (at least De'Anthony Thomas doesn't have to go to the Rose Bowl now, you know, since he wasn't that interested in going anyway). Arizona State only scores 28 again, but it's enough, unlike last time. Stan: 21--ASU: 28
Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Bedlam is always a good time. OU has sputtered this whole year with all kinds of problems--especially questionable QB play. OSU stomped Baylor in their first 'Game of the Century (of the Year)' but it all is for naught without a big win at home in Bedlam. I love the Poke home field advantage and their poise in the last big game (Baylor) and I don't see a difference here. Rivalries make for interesting things, but the Pokes behind Clint Chelf look ready to go. The loss to WVU just doesn't make sense. The rebound continues on the way to the Fiesta. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Hoying: Shuffle, shuffle, do the quarterback shuffle. Both teams enter Bedlam with season-long quarterback issues. The Cowboys seem to have settled on senior slinger Clint Chelf, especially after a fantastic performance against Baylor, while the Sooners have rediscovered their love for freshman phenom Trevor Knight after Blake Bell bit badly getting beat by the Baylor Bears. This one looks like an easy pick for the Cowboys, but I'm not so sure. The Cowboys historically underperform against the Sooners, and I just have a feeling that with a 2nd Big 12 title in 3 years in their grasp, OSU will let the moment slip away. Big Game Bob comes through and the Bedlam series becomes even more lopsided. OU: 31--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: If last week's rivalry games told us anything, it's that these games are flat unpredictable. Ultimately, the Cowboys have looked very good against some very good offenses this year, see Baylor. OSU likes to jam the receivers at the line and this throws the timing of these offenses way off. The Cowboy offense is very efficient and has played well all year. Oklahoma is good enough to keep it close but OSU is the better team. OU: 28--OSU: 38
Seeberg: After crushing Baylor on a national stage, OSU #2 (remember, they got crushed 33-7 by THE OSU in the Alamo Bowl several years ago) has faded back into relative obscurity, no doubt angrily. For those who may not recall, Oklahoma State missed out on a chance to play LSU for the national title a couple years back by mere thousandths of a point in the BCS. I don't think anyone argued that 'Bama was better, but they didn't even win their conference, and the Cowboys are feeling slighted yet again. Both teams have two weeks to prep, but the Oklahoma St. offense is the best of the four units that will be on the field: advantage- OSU #2. OSU: 38--OU: 24
Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Texas showed life in the midseason after blowing out OU, but then crashed back down to earth. Baylor was rocking and rolling until OSU and faceplanted. Last week showed a hangover as they struggled with TCU as well. What about this week? Both teams have something to play for as a loss for the Cowboys catapults the winner into the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor has had struggles of late, but they were on the road. The home stadium in Waco may not be unstoppable, but they feed off the energy. I like Baylor to return home and beat the Horns to wrap up no worse than second. Stir the rumor mill for Mack Brown. UT: 30--Baylor: 45
Hoying: I thought Texas had turned it around. I thought Mack Brown had righted the ship. Then Oklahoma State happened. We should've seen it coming after terrible terrible West Virginia took the Horns to 3OT. Yeah, yeah, you blew out a Texas Tech team that hasn't beaten a good team all year. Meanwhile, Baylor almost let the Cowboys beat them 2 weeks in a row, needing an INT on an ill-advised pass to hold off a bad TCU team. But now the Bears are back in their den. And they're ready to unleash the nation's top offense against a Texas defense that can't stop it. This one is going to be ugly. UT: 24--Baylor: 52
Schweinfurth: Texas has made a decent comeback on the Mack Brown redemption tour this year. Then the ship started to take on water yet again. The Longhorn's are getting Baylor at a very bad time. Baylor can seal a BCS berth with a win hear and continue the upswing they have been on. Unless Texas can shut down that Bear rushing attack, it's gonna be a long day...and it will be a loooong day. Baylor wins big. UT: 28--Baylor: 55
Seeberg: Similar to the SEC title game, this game felt like a no-brainer, this time for the Baylor Bears, until their near-debacle last week, giving up 38 points to a TCU squad that might be Gary Patterson's worst since he took over the program 13 seasons ago. Baylor should win, and should win easily, but Texas's D has largely played well the second half of the season. Texas hangs in for Mack Brown, but Bryce Petty makes enough plays to pull away late. UT: 21--Baylor: 37
B1G: Michigan State Spartans vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Sparty defense vs. Buckeye offense...man, I wish I had some Buckeye offense to plow my sidewalk. In the new look NFL/NCAA, defense may win championships, but a great defense cannot stop a great offense. Look at the TAMU/Bama game. Bama won in a shootout...because A&M defense sucked and the stout Tide D couldn't stop Johnny Football. Sparty will slow the Buckeyes somewhat, but you can't stop being bludgeoned repeated by Hyde and Miller. The rushing attack of the Buckeyes and the O-line will wear down the Spartans. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye D was awful last week...but let's not forget about the walrus himself calling plays in East Lansing--Vrabs is coming for you Bollman! I think the Buckeye defense will be able to stop 'Dave' enough times to earn a hard fought win and a trip to Pasadena for the title. MSU: 20--OSU: 35
Hoying: After the Buckeyes watched Auburn's insane kick-six to topple Alabama, the team went wild for a few minutes. They knew their last uncontrollable obstacle to a national title been removed. Then Philly Brown stood up and reminded the men of the scarlet and gray that for that new #2 ranking to mean anything, it had to be cemented with one more victory. Can the Bucks take down a Sparty squad that appears to be headed to the Rose Bowl regardless of the game's outcome? Much is being made of Ohio State's meltdown on defense against the Wolverines. However, Michigan was playing out of its mind, showing glimpses of the powerful attack that steamrolled Notre Dame before tripping over its own shoelaces during the past month. The run D wasn't terrible; it was Gardner gashing us through the air that almost derailed the championship train. MSU's Connor Cook has been improving, but this is the guy who led the Spartan offense to 14 points against Purdue. Purdue. Roby, Barnett, Grant, and Brown should have little to fear this Saturday. On the other side of the ball, Carlos Hyde is still unstoppable, running for 226 yards against a pretty good Michigan run D. I don't think the Spartans are capable of shutting down both Hyde and Miller, and they might not get to either. I boldly predicted last year that as long as Braxton was on the field for the Buckeyes, they wouldn't lose another game. It's served me well so far. Buckeyes win the final Legends-Leaders battle and thus definitely secure a spot in the BCS National Championship. MSU: 16--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: Michigan State has a defense, oh yes, Sparty has a defense. They are not the #1 rated defense in the nation for nothing. However, the Spartans have faced some spread offense this year and they have given up some points, see 28 points to both Nebraska and Indiana. Ohio State's offense is much, much, much better that those two teams. Who do you try and stop? Keep Miller from running the ball? He'll throw some quick screens or give to Hyde? Stop Hyde? Now you have Miller running wild and throwing. The Spartans want to talk "no fly zone" but they will be stressed vertically and horizontally by the physical Ohio State receivers. Michigan State's offense matches up well with the Silver Bullets. Yes, OSU gives up passing yards but they are very good against conventional power run teams (just look at the Wisconsin game). That Spartan defense will be enough to keep Michigan State in the game (and maybe even a fake kick or two) but there is a Walrus calling the plays on offense. That bucket of fish will run out quickly and Miller earns himself a trip to New York and the Bucks a trip to the second game in Pasadena. OSU: 34--MSU: 19
Seeberg: Last week, I had OSU winning by "only" three touchdowns and quite frankly, that high margin of victory made me a bit nervous. However, nobody (except the hilariously partial Desmond Howard) had TTUN with 2.5 yards separating them from a win with less than a minute to go. Devin Gardner looked like a flat-out stud, primarily because, for reasons unbeknownst to this fan sitting in the 58th row, he was put under minimal duress, even after hurting his leg in the 3rd quarter. Our D consistently rushed four and dropped seven, and was consistently picked apart as a result. The only conceivable reason for this decision is that TTUN's O-line has struggled mightily in recent weeks and Fickell, Vrabel & Co. must have believed they could get consistent pressure with just four rushers. They were wrong, and if our defense sits back like that again, it may give MSU enough of an opening to spring the upset. Gratefully, however, Connor Cook does not have the skill set of Devin Gardner, even when Gardner is limping around the pocket. MSU's D against OSU's O is perhaps the most intriguing matchup anywhere in college football all year. Braxton has not thrown the ball well in recent weeks, but I believe the offense will come out throwing short-to-intermediate passes to get Braxton in a rhythm and loosen up the D for Hyde to get rolling. The D attacks, the O largely maintains its form against a tough MSU D, and OSU is 25-0 under Urban. MSU: 17--OSU: 34
Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Louisville
Hoying: Utah State over Fresno State
Schweinfurth: SMU over UCF
Seeberg: Army over Navy
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