Week 5 - The Battle of Ohio

Standings
1) Draper               11-6    (2-2 upset)
1) Schweinfurth     11-6    (1-3 upset)
1) Seeberg              11-6    (0-4 upset)
4) Hoying               10-7    (2-2 upset)

After last week's presciently named "Paring the Ranks of the Undefeateds" post, 9 undefeated teams went on to lose, 5 of them to teams with losses (good work, Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana), leaving just 25 undefeated teams left after 4 weeks of play. Our first two picks this week each feature a pair of undefeated teams, and the Buckeyes hope to knock off undefeated Cincinnati as well.

In other news, every B1G team except Michigan avoided a loss last week, and the Wolverines celebrated by offering free football tickets to anyone who could afford two $1.50 Coke products.

UCLA Bruins @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper:UCLA is undefeated...but their 3 wins have been as unimpressive as anyone who was supposed to be a national title contender, but they did win, even with backup QB Jerry Neuheisal stepping in when 'mega-star' Brett Hundley got hurt. ASU has been pretty much as unimpressive with 3 craptastic wins before this Thursday night showdown.  UCLA's win at UVA is actually gaining some credit as time passes but the SunDevils have beaten...no one.  My gut says UCLA has to be the better team with the 'hype', but they can't protect the QB.  ASU is at home, but I have no idea what this team is made of...so many questions.  I have to believe that Hundley is better than he's shown and if he plays, I'll lean to the Bruins.  If he doesn't play, I'm betting (HAHA GET IT!? HIS DAD WAS FIRED FOR GAMBLING!!) that Jerry Neuheisal can 'game manage' a road win.  UCLA in a close one.  UCLA: 28--ASU: 27
Hoying: Never underestimate the inertia of preseason rankings. Somehow, UCLA comes into this game ranked #11 after three quite unimpressive wins, the best of which may well turn out to be at Virginia. Why so mediocre? Despite featuring everyone's Heisman darling, Brett Hundley, at QB, the Bruins can't buy him a few seconds' worth of protection. UCLA has given up 12 sacks so far, while dialing up only 3 of their own. It's become so bad that Hundley had to leave a game in which UCLA was trailing Texas, so that Rick Neuheisel's son could lead them to victory. In contrast, what do we know about the home team? They have three big wins over three bad opponents. They run the ball very well. And, like UCLA, their starting quarterback, Taylor Kelly, is injured. Were that last fact not the case, I would be tempted to pick to Sun Devils, but Neuheisel is battle-tested and ASU backup QB Mike Bercovici isn't. UCLA: 24--ASU: 17
Schweinfurth:  I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Hundley will at least start this game.  That won't matter though as ASU has been pretty meh these last few years while UCLA is on the up swing.  UCLA: 28--ASU: 10
Seeberg:  Both teams are 3-0, having beaten almost nobody between them with the possible exception of UVA (by UCLA).  Hundley is hurt, supposedly, but UCLA isn't telling anyone whether he'll play or not.  ASU may have wished they did the same as their starting QB is out with a bad wheel.  ASU also allowed more points to Colorado than lowly Hawaii, so their D is suspect at best.  Assuming Hundley is anywhere near 100%, this one should end up somewhat comfortably for the Bruins.  UCLA: 27--ASU: 17

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
Draper: NC State is the annual 'trap' game for the Noles.  Especially in Raleigh.  Not this year.  Jameis will be back and hungry to lead this team.  Yes, the Noles looked vulnerable vs. Clemson, but the Tiger pass rush is very good and the receivers made some circus catches.  NCSU is undefeated but no longer.  FSU reminds everyone what the number 1 team can do.  Don't underestimate the importance of a solid experienced leader at the QB position.  Noles roll. FSU: 38--NCSU: 17
Hoying: You thought the big Florida State ACC showdown was last week, didn't you? Fie! Clemson wasn't even undefeated! NC State rolls in with 4 wins over Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida, and Presbyterian. Meanwhile the Noles miraculously benefited from some heavy Clemsoning to overcome the loss of Jameis Winston, but we learned something very important in the process: Florida State has no running game. GaSo and ODU were able to have success on the ground and keep their games against NC State close. Will FSU need to discover a rush attack in order to maintain their winning ways? Yes, but not this week. The talent gap is still too large. FSU: 27--NCSU: 20
Schweinfurth: Jameis Winston is playing in this game right? Florida State's defense carried them through that thriller last week and showed that there is more to this team than Infamous Jameis. Looking at history says that NC State typically gives the 'Noles issues in Raleigh.  This year I don't see it happening.  Jameis feels like he has something to prove and blows the doors off the Wolfpack D. FSU: 35--NCSU: 10
Seeberg:  Has Jameis Winston randomly yelled poor-spirited 4-letter words at anyone yet this week?  No?  Got it.  The Seminoles should be golden.  Nevertheless, NC State has been TTUN to John Cooper's Buckeye squads, inexplicably ruining multiple high-profile seasons with less-talented teams.  The same nearly happened two years before FSU stopped their first-half sleepwalking routine, turning a 16-0 deficit into a 17-16 win.  Last year the Seminoles seemingly buried the curse forever, routing the Wolfpack by 32.  They aren't as dominant this year, but I do not expect a return to the drama.  Keep a lid on it Famous Jameis!  FSU: 38--NCSU: 13

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: TAMU has been known for lots of points over the Johnny Football and Kenny 'Trill' eras, but defense is fairly optional (no I don't care that they played well against bad offenses).  I'd like to congratulate the fat turd (Bielema) for actually winning a conference game with an explosive offense...but no defense either.  Put em together and what do you get? A shootout...that may be too kind....Lots of points, but the 12th man and the better team gives the sizable edge to the Aggies.  The win over South Carolina has matured nicely.  College Station rocks as the Aggies give up a decent number of points, but score much more.  Ark: 27--TAMU: 48
Hoying: Since the end of Arkansas's karma-based 10 game losing streak, the Razorbacks have looked impressive in 3 straight wins, showcasing one of the nation's top rushing attacks behind two-headed monster Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. How dominant is the Arkansas ground game? Against Texas Tech, the Razors attempted 12 passes and scored 49 points, all on run plays. Woo Pig Sooie even averaged 5.3 yards/carry while getting whomped by Auburn in the opener. Unfortunately for them, Texas A&M has inexplicably found a defense to complement their scary-good offense. Since giving up 28 points (on four touchdown passes) to South Carolina in the opener, the Aggies have surrendered 19 points total in their last 3 games. You can't be one-dimensional and knock off A&M this year. Ark: 20--TAMU: 41
Schweinfurth: Bert's Razorbacks are bad.  I mean like really bad (but ESPN will tell you they are good because SEC).  Texas A&M is still interesting to me.  They are a team that I would expect to have 2-3 losses but they look better than I think they are.  Fortunately for A&M, the Razorbacks aren't much of a challenge and this one is over quick.  Ark: 17--TAMU: 45
Seeberg:  Anyone in the Greensboro, NC area want to go halvsies on some pizza/beer and take in this game with me?  I have an impractically large TV and this game is likely to be very entertaining.  Bret Bielema's money grab is finally netting the Razorbacks some victories by going back to, ironically, both Razorback and Badger football, running it down people's throats.  Their passing game, however, leaves much to be desired, and did not show up in the one game they needed it, a 24-point loss to Auburn.  Pass me another slice, TAMU just scored again.  Ark: 23--TAMU: 52

Cincinnati Bearcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Bucks responded from the VT debacle by clobbering hapless Kent State.  Now it's the return of Little Brother (what a champion) to the Shoe.  UC looks to step up and take down the big dog to match up their resume with Oberlin College, but it's just not in the cards.  Gunner Kiel has slung the ball around quite well in the first few games, but the LSU transfer...er...Irish transfer...er...whatever, hasn't been to the Shoe.  OSU has far better athletes from top to bottom so this should be a Buckeye win although the pass defense will be tested.  Look for the O-line to continue to improve against a D-Line better than Kent but worse than VT.  The pass defense will be tested, but Zeke, Curtis Samuel, and Mr. Barrett should have a field day against this defense.  Keep the record books open. Send them back to Ohio's ONLY crappy stepping stone school. UC: 28--OSU: 41
Hoying: After a bye week, the Buckeyes welcome back Scrappy Doo to Ohio Stadium, ending a 7-year hiatus. Little Brother is excited about its chances with super-recruit Gunner Kiel behind center, but Cincinnati (1) can't run the ball, and (2) has no defense. If the Buck-O-Line continues to improve, the Men of the Scarlet and Gray should be able to roll up quite a few points. This game will come down to how well Chris Ash's newly-installed Cover 4 defense has taken hold. The pass defense was actually pretty decent against Virginia Tech, and Navy and Kent State couldn't throw the ball at all, but this will be the true test of the Silver Bullets' progress. I have a good feeling about this one. It still sUCks to be a stepping stone. UC: 20--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: It is finally time to see if that sieve of a pass defense is fixed.  Yes VaTech threw it a little bit, but Cincinnati is going to go full air raid and throw it 40-50 times.  Blitz timing and good corner coverage is going to be needed because Gunner Kiel has some pretty good targets to throw to.  I expect the Bearcats to be able to move the ball between the thirties and bog down a bit in the red zone.  The Buckeye offense has also had two weeks to figure out what to do on the offensive line and what their identity will be.  UC is going to try and run a bear front.   Because of that, I expect J.T. to come out throwing lots of short to intermediate passes.  Once the defense is loosened up a bit, Zeke and Samuel will get their yards.  Ohio State has the better talent in the state.  It's time to prove it.  UC: 20--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Had to wait an extra week to say this thanks to the bye week, but where in the (insert favorite expletive here) was that team/coaching staff when we actually NEEDED them against Va Tech?  No matter, the Bearcats come rolling into Columbus with a high-powered, if one-dimensional, offense.  The front four will need to put some pressure on Top Gunner to ease things for the back seven.  It's unlikely the D is completely patched up, but luckily our non-Tressel-influenced offense will be scoring plenty.  Doubling up the little brother in the Shoe.  UC: 24--OSU: 48

Upset Special
Draper:Minnesota over Michigan (get the pitchforks ready)
Hoying: Oregon State over USC
Schweinfurth: Missouri over South Carolina
Seeberg: Texas Tech over Oklahoma State