Week 13 - Low Pressure System

Standings

1) Draper               36-18    (5-7 upset)

2) Hoying               35-19    (3-9 upset)
3) Seeberg              34-20    (1-11 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     33-21    (5-7 upset)

In meteorology, a low pressure system moving into your region of the atmosphere means that a storm will soon be coming.* In this week's college football landscape, the huge number of games that suck creates an atmosphere of very low pressure for the playoff contenders, with a huge storm on the horizon over the following two weeks.

In the meantime, we focus on the Pac-12 South and B1G West races, with 5 and 4 teams still in the running, respectively. 

*Yes, meteorology people, I know, this is a bit of an over-generalization. Please withhold your angry comments.

#22 USC Trojans "@" #10 UCLA Bruins

Draper: UCLA is getting better every week and has wuietly entered the top 10.  SC on the other hand seems to have faded over the season. Hundley is looking pretty good, but more importantly, the line is protecting him...a little.  Kessler is having a nice season, but consistency is an issue.  I'm leaning on the hot hand right now which points to the Bruins.  I don't feel great about it, but Sark hasn't shaken the Earth in LA.  UCLA has too much to play for with a potential rematch with the Ducks in their grasp.  USC: 31--UCLA: 38

Hoying: Five teams vie for the Pac-12 South crown; only UCLA controls its own destiny. First hurdle: its biggest rival, the only conference opponent against whom the Bruins have a losing record. UCLA proudly proclaimed that "the LA monopoly is over" back in 2008, but that prophecy didn't come true until the script flipped 2 years ago. Now it's the Trojans who are struggling, giving up late TDs to Utah and Arizona State and needing a last-second missed FG to get by Arizona. Not that UCLA's been banking style points either, needing 2OTs to get by awful awful Colorado. Astoundingly, it's USC QB Cody Kessler who's been the star of the Pac-12 South this season, not everybody's preseason Heisman darling, Brett Hundley of UCLA. Will he be enough to overcome a lack of run defense and focus? Not this year. Hundley's escapability will make up for the Bruins' suspect pass protection and lead UCLA to their 3rd straight victory over the hated Trojans. USC: 24--UCLA: 27

Schweinfurth: Ahh, the battle for L.A.  It does appear that the So Cal monopoly is over as USC has trailed off in recent years (thanks Lane Kiffin).  This year has been a bit of resurgence for the Trojans.  Steve Sarkesian has that offense humming along pretty well.  UCLA's offensive line has been brutal this year and Brett Hundley has been taking a beating.  The beatings will continue!  USC: 35--UCLA: 31

Seeberg:  Well, UCLA has the home-field advantage this year so...ok maybe not.  In any event, both teams are quietly picking up wins lately, albeit not particularly impressive wins as both teams struggled to put away Cal (USC winning by 8 at home, UCLA by 2 on the road) and UCLA slept through their tilt with Colorado.  These teams are pretty equally matched up, and with home field a non-issue, I always revert to my default position- pick the team with the better defense.  In this case?  The Trojans.  USC: 31--UCLA: 23

#13 Arizona Wildcats @ Utah Utes

Draper: Can the freshman Solomon keep it going in a tough road environment?  The Utes have been really good at home when they actually carry the ball all the way into the endzone before dropping it.  The downside is that I don't expect the same environment for a game vs. Arizona (even though they're a top 15 team).  Anu Solomon has had a great freshman season in RichRod's system that will only improve (assuming Mr. Rod is still in Tuscon next year).  I think this is going to come down to the wire with another last second win for the Cardiac Cats. Zona: 34--Utah: 31

Hoying: Can you win in the Pac-12 without throwing the ball? It's not like the Utes had a terrific aerial assault early in the season, but since the loss of top receiver Dres Anderson, they've really dropped off, falling in 2 of their last 3 games (and winning the third in double overtime). Arizona's Anu Solomon is more of what you'd expect from a west coast offense, leading one of the nation's top 15 pass attacks and easily one of the most exciting, executing incredible comebacks against Cal and Washington and coming a field goal away from stunning USC. This game's not being played against a Los Angeles team, so the Wildcats should be safe, and RichRod should stay in the hunt for his first conference title. Zona: 31--Utah: 20

Schweinfurth: I don't know much about these two teams, so I am going to grandstand a bit.  I feel that the east coast, and the country as a whole, would appreciate the Pac-12 if the games didn't start after the 8:00 games ended.  I like college football and all, but between life and sleep, I can devote a maximum of around 6-10 hours on Saturdays to football.  That means the really late games are off the table for my viewing pleasure.  Start some games before 8:00 and I will gladly watch. Oh, Zona wins.  Zona: 42--Utah: 35

Seeberg:  From the surprisingly-decent-second-tier-conference-matchup file comes this game.  Sadly, the game would have been much more competitive before Utah's one-dimensional offense has cost them two of their last three games.  Arizona is hanging their hat on that head-scratching Oregon win and the Wildcats would have likely struggled in this game against a healthy Utah squad.  A dinged up Ute team, however, means the Wildcats continue their unlikely run to compete for the Pac-12 South.  Zona: 38--Utah: 24

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ #18 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Draper: Let's see...Nebraska is 8-2 with 2 to go.  To reach that non-elusive 9-4 they need 1 win and 2 losses (including the bowl).  All signs point to loss, win, loss...but NO! Bo Pelini gets the troops fired up to defend the home turf against David Cobb.  This is a pride game.  The 'Blackshirts' were embarrassed by a guy named Malvin last week.  Cobb is a great runner, but I don't see the Huskers falling flat on their faces again in their last home game.  Hey Bo, Give. Ameer. the. rock.  Over and over.  Cobb will go for 130 and 2 TDs, but Ameer will hit 200 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs. Minn: 27--Neb: 31

Hoying: Boy, is this game a lot less appealing than it was a week ago. These teams have a ton of wins against a ton of suck and a few losses against some very good teams, but now it's time to see what they'll do during their late-season stretch run. What did we learn from two games in the snow? 1. Minnesota can't move the ball against a good defense, aside from breaking a few good runs. 2. Nebraska doesn't have a good defense, particularly against the run. 3. JT Barrett and Melvin Gordon are really good (sneak preview of a game prediction 2 weeks from now). Since his injury, Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah has been a non-factor, while his Gopher counterpart David Cobb keeps getting stronger. Can a team that doesn't throw the ball beat the Huskers? DUUUUUUHHHHH. Minn: 30--Neb: 27

Schweinfurth: Holy crap did the Blackshirts get exposed my Melvin Gordon last week.  That was a truly abysmal performance against a team that lines up and practically says, "We are running up the middle...stop it if you can."  This week the Huskers face another team that likes to run.  From what I could see last week, David Cobb is the real deal.  You have to wrap that guy up and Nebraska has gotten into this arm tackle thing.  Not a good combination for Nebraska.  Throw in the fact that Ameer Abdullah hasn't looked right since his injury and it all spells out a Gopher win.  Minn: 35--Neb: 21

Seeberg:  Let's be honest- we need Minnesota to win this one to keep our victory over them looking good in the eyes of the football deities that ultimately decide our postseason fate.  Fortunately, they are playing a team that just gave up 57 kajillion yards on the ground (Note:  Statistic is an estimate...likely an underestmation).  Minnesota's O-line may not be quite as good as Wisconsin's, nor their RB, but Cobb is very solid and should have another highly productive day.  Abdullah still hasn't been himself since tweaking his knee, and without him healthy and confident, Nebraska doesn't have enough answers on offense.  Minnesota, at least for a week, not a disgrace.  Minn: 34--Neb: 24

#14 Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Gordon. Bulldozer.  This one could get ugly...but it won't be as disgusting as last week.  Iowa is at home which will help keep it a bit closer.  I expect Gordon to get his, but everyone will be shocked that he doesn't explode.  The Hawkeyes will completely overload the box with all 11 guys...and still give up over 100--but not 400.  I have a weird feeling that this will be closer than the experts think, but not that close all the same.  The Badgers have too much to play for.  Wisc: 31--Iowa: 17

Hoying: Minnesota ran for 291 yards against Iowa. Uh oh. Wis: 45--Iowa: 17

Schweinfurth: See Hoying's stat and add in that Wisconsin ran for 581 against Nebraska.  Yea, uh oh indeed.  Gordon could go for 300+ again.  Wis: 49--Iowa: 14

Seeberg:  The only real question here is how well Melvin Gordon backs up his historic performance last week.  Iowa's enormous collapse against Minnesota two weeks ago, losing by a whopping 37, is unlikely to happen again.  Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, Wisconsin is a lot better than them, mistakes or not.  Gordon needs another 150+, 2 TD+ game to push Mariota off his Heisman pedestal, and he will likely get it at the expense of a porous Hawkeye run D.  Wis: 38--Iowa: 20

Indiana Hoosiers @ #7 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Telvin Coleman is having one of the best years for a running back that no one has heard about.  He went for 300+ last week...and no one cares.  JT and company return to the friendly confines to the acclaim of Buckeye Nation.  I have a feeling this will be very similar to the recent home B1G games in which the Bucks jump out to an early lead, take the game in hand, and sit back and take a nap (which will be disappointing).  Bosa and the front seven need to treat this as an important learning experience to practice for Gordon.  They need to step up and contain Coleman.  IU is on their 15th string QB so just focus on stopping the run.  That should be the goal of the game along with cleaning up the tackling.  Hold Coleman under 100 and I'll be thrilled.  You're either getting better, or you're getting worse.  OSU: 52--IU: 24

Hoying: The Hoosiers are quickly running out of chances to win a conference game, but the news isn't all bad. Sure, they visit one of the hottest teams in the nation this week, but next week they get Purdue! At home! And even if the Hoosiers' dreams don't come true against the B1G's version of Make a Wish, they'll still have that SEC East title to fall back on. Indiana is as good as running the ball as anyone in the country, unless your goal is to make sure the ball goes across the goal line at some point. And they're horrible at everything else. Ohio State is pretty good at everything except tackling running backs and preventing the ghost of Ray Small from possessing their punt returners. Bucks win big and start their streak as the only team to win the B1G East. Ind: 20--OSU: 59

Schweinfurth:  A little #narrative to start off: Indiana beat the SEC East leader.  The Buckeyes have been flat rolling inferior teams (and teams that were "better" than them) since the Va Tech game.  Last week's score was no indication of how dominant the Buckeyes were.  The only concerning thing to me is the defense on quick turnarounds (after turnovers especially).  No matter where they start on the field after a Buckeye turnover, it seems like the other team always gets points.  This is a trend that really needs to stop.  The defense has played very well for the most part but the Bullets need to stop the run.  This will be a good practice for the Buckeyes ahead of TTUN and, most likely, Wisconsin.  Time to shore up the run D and keep that offense sharp.  Barrett keeps putting up his video game numbers as well.  This is a style point game. Ind: 13--OSU: 52

Seeberg:  Ah yes, it's our favorite homecoming team come to town six weeks late.  The Hoosiers actually boast a legitimate NFL-caliber running back in Tevin Coleman, and the Silver Bullets have struggled with the power run game in consecutive weeks.  Thankfully, IU is on their 2nd-string practice squad QB at this point and Coleman is their only competent threat on offense.  The turnovers need to be cleaned up, but even if we lose the ball multiple times again it's just not going to matter.  Onto TTUN.  IND: 17--OSU: 52

Upset Special

Draper: All of the other upsets games are super weak.  Mizzou over Tenn is about as lame

Hoying: North Carolina over Duke

Schweinfurth: Maryland over Michigan 

Seeberg:  Louisville over Notre Dame