Thursday, October 22, 2015

Week 8 - It's Not Like Next Week Is Any Better

Standings
1) Seeberg              29-8    (0-7 upset)
2) Draper                26-11    (4-3 upset) 
2) Hoying               26-11    (1-6 upset)
2) Schweinfurth     26-11    (1-6 upset)


Hope you enjoyed last week, college football fans. These games suuuuuuuuck. At least we get to see the Buckeyes again before their Halloween bye.


#19 California Bears @ UCLA Bruins

Draper: Cal has been rising quickly under Sonny Lubick and his fast paced offense.  Jared Goff seeks to be the next great Cal QB, albeit quite different from A.A.Ron Rodgers.  UCLA had the crazy hype after a quick start but the Bruins and freshman 'sensation' Josh Rosen have slowly disappeared from memory like a fart in the wind.  The game is in the Rose Bowl but all the west coast fans have leapt off the band wagon and now are focused on...well, all sports kinda suck out there now....Golden State? Bears of the Golden variety triumph in a high scoring affair. Cal: 45--UCLA: 34
Hoying: Welcome to Rivalry Week. California vs. California. Bears vs. Bears. Blue and Gold vs. Blue and Gold. Are you excited yet? Yeah, me neither. Still, this is the wacky Pac-12, where almost every team (sorry, Oregon State and Colorado) is still chasing a berth at Sinkhole Stadium at season's end. Cal still controls its own destiny, and it remains undefeated in games in which QB Jared Goff doesn't throw 5 interceptions. UCLA is reeling after getting blown out in back-to-back games. The Bruins' defense just can't stop anyone, giving up 56 points to a Stanford team that racked up all of 6 against Northwestern. Expect the Bear O to go Goff on the Bruin D, and watch UCLA QB Josh Rosen crumble under the pressure yet again. Cal: 40--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, another PAC-12 game. I don't have a bias against the PAC-12, I just hate that they all play after I go to bed. With that said, I really don't know much about either team and I'll just make a pick. Cal: 38--UCLA: 35

Seeberg:  Not 100% sure what to make of this game.  UCLA has a defense like a steel sieve, but the last time we saw Jared Goff he was a turnover machine in a narrow loss to Utah.  Should I be impressed that Cal had 5 INTs and only lost to Utah by 6?  I don't know, because I still don't fully trust that the Utes are that good.  My educated guess is that the loss of Myles Jack in the UCLA defense was bigger than anyone realized at the time, and with two weeks to prep, a Cal team looking to re-establish itself after the Utah loss will be too much offensively for the Bruins to handle.  Cal: 42--UCLA: 34

#15 Texas A&M Aggies @ #21 Ole Miss Rebels
Draper: Ole Miss returns to the Grove after losing to perennial championship contender Memphis.  Memphis may be really good, but Ole Miss is supposed to be one of the premier programs in the premier league.  The loss of Robert Nkemdiche led to a meltdown.  This week will test the intestinal fortitude of the Rebels.  How do you respond to a blowout loss to Florida in the Swamp and a surprising loss to an undefeated but supposedly overmatched foe?  A&M was beat fairly soundly at home by the all and powerful Bama, but other than that blip, they have been quite good.  I expect a rebound game for Ole Miss.  Yeah, they could crash and burn, but returning home to the crazy fans, I expect the Rebels to play for their lives.  TAMU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Is Memphis a legitimate playoff contender, or is Ole Miss just a complete mirage? After spotting Ole Miss a quick 14-0 lead, the Tigers dominated the Rebels at home last Saturday. The Landsharks were shredded through the air, particularly after superstar DL Robert Nkemdiche left the game with a concussion. That's bad news with Kyle Allen and the Aggies coming to town. This isn't the Alabama secondary that's going to return 3 Allen throws for TDs. The Rebels are going to have to outscore A&M, and that's tough without a running game, no matter how good Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has been. Memphis would love Ole Miss to run the table and win the SEC, legitimizing their big win, but the wheels have fallen off and the cart is about to crash. TAMU: 38--Miss: 34

Schweinfurth: How is Ole Miss still ranked? Because they beat Bama? Memphis put a beat down on the Rebels last week and the Landshark defense is reeling after losing Nkemdiche (probably for a few weeks too). Be prepared for a long game with all the passing (this one may take over 4 hours). I'll take A&M in the marathon. TAMU: 42--Miss: 31
Seeberg:  This is a matchup of two oddly similar teams.  Both have solid QBs but no running game.  Both have legit chances to win the SEC West but are coming off of stinging losses.  Both have one conference loss so this is essentially an elimination game (though the Rebels' loss to Memphis may have them out of CFP contention anyway).  I think the combination of Robert Nkemdiche potentially being out (no word yet as of Wednesday afternoon as I type this) and Memphis torching the Rebels through the air provide the perfect blueprint for Sumlin to get his Aggies back on track.  TAMU: 34--Miss: 28


#1 Utah Utes @ USC Trojans
Draper:  This is the one.  SC could be in complete disarray after the Sark disaster, but they acquitted themselves quite well in South Bend when there was nothing positive to play for.  Utah has a nice win against Michigan at home that has aged well, a close win over Cal that is nice...but at home, a good win over ASU...at home, and a blowout of Oregon in Eugene.  Normally, that last would be incredibly valuable but not as much this year.  The Trojans have an incredible amount of talent and this is the week in which it shows.  They won't break any records this year, but they'll screw with some Utah hopes.  I'm surprised SC is favored, but I lean with Vegas.  Utah: 28--USC: 31
Hoying: No coach? Check. No great wins to date? Check. Favored to beat a team with a legitimate case to be ranked #1? Chec.....what??? A week after Utah handled the only team with a winning record USC's beaten (Arizona State) and USC lost by multiple scores to "eh" team Notre Dame, the bookies are giving Utah more than a field goal in this matchup. What gives? Cody Kessler has been pretty good...against crap, but the Trojans looked completely lost against Washington 2 weeks ago and I don't think the middle of a coaching change is the time for USC to start solving tough defenses. Remember that the Utes forced 6 turnovers to grind out a win against Cal. Kessler has thrown 4 INTs himself in the Trojans' last 2 losses. Uh oh. I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid (or anything Sark offers me). Utah preserves the Pac-12's hope for an unbeaten champion. Utah: 28--USC: 20

Schweinfurth: Utah has looked good all season and USC is in bad shape without a head coach. Utah: 31--USC: 17
Seeberg:  I have to be honest- I assumed my colleagues had gone blind in one eye and had that milky film over the other eye in reporting that Utah was an underdog, yet somehow, they're right.  I admit I don't fully trust the Utes yet, but there's no reason to think a 3-3 team should be favored over the Utes...or is there?  The Trojans looked more than competent under 5-day head coach and presumably more sober than his predecessor Clay Helton in a 10-point loss at Notre Dame.  They've got talent for days...or at least hours, but no serviceable depth and no RB that has even 400 yards through 6 games.  Cody Kessler is good but he just can't do it by himself.  The Trojans find themselves in too many 2nd and 9s and 3rd and 10s to overcome and Utah stays perfect.  Utah: 34--USC: 28


#3 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: When I heard the news, I felt like Big Mike after saving the Buy More.  Joe Thomas Barrett IV returns under center to bring a sense of command and precision to the Buckeye offense.  Captain Smooth directs the offense like a symphony with dashing runs, precision passes, and an overall presence that the team can look to for solace.  The O-line certainly upped their game last week when JT returned and the seas parted as the magical misdirection returned.  Zeke found fewer defenders to deal with (JT had to be accounted for), the WR's blocked harder, and when needed, the short to intermediate passing game was very sharp.  Rutgers his never a team to strike hearts in the fears of men, but they are coming off a huge comeback over the Hoosiers...but now the Bucks have returned to form.  This won't be close.  My only request is that the defense stops giving up a few explosive plays a game. Show the nation what the Defending National Champs look like. OSU: 56--
Rutgers...more like Buttgers: 9
Hoying: We've been asking for it, and it's finally arrived: Just Touchdowns Barrett is back. What will a defense do given a full week to prepare for him? The two-headed monster has (probably) been a nightmare to prepare for, but now DCs can full their full attention towards stopping the read option. I don't expect any slowdown this week, since Rutgers is surrendering up almost 30 points a game (and 1/3 of their opponents were Kansas and Norfolk State). If you're desperate for something to hold your attention, watch how the Ohio State passing game develops. Will JT finally be on the same page as his receivers, or at least close enough to keep the drives alive? Will Ohio State even try to throw the ball after racking up over 300 yards on the ground against a pretty good Penn State defense? Will Cardale see more action in garbage time than during his starting duties the last 2 weeks? How long until Stephen Collier gets to hand the ball off to Bri'onte Dunn? Does Ohio State have a greater chance of losing this weekend or next? OSU: 49--Rut: 17
Schweinfurth: Rutgers has one player: Leonte Carroo. Rutgers QB? Not mobile and they have some meh RBs. I'm not real worried about the Silver Bullets this week. Yes, there are lots of injuries, but this game should be some good experience for the young Bucks. On offense, it's time to get into a rhythm. Expect lots of up tempo with JT at the helm. Barrett is a good distributor of the ball and should get Thomas and Miller in some short/medium routes as the defense sucks up to stop the run. This is going to be a rout and we should be able to get some important guys rest early. OSU: 56--Rutgers: 13
Seeberg:  OK first and foremost, the jerseys alone are great.  The all-black look?  We looked like Oregon State.  Wrong OSU to be emulating.  Not a good call.  All that aside, I STILL don't know what to make of the QB situation.  Is J.T. that much better?  Maybe...but probably not.  I am going to review the game play by play tomorrow but watching it live in the stadium I am about 90% certain Cardale did not even attempt one throw between the hashes, and he may not have even attempted one to someone inside the NUMBERS (or at least to a receiver that started inside the numbers except super-wide swing passes to Zeke).  It's as if the play callers are so enamored with his strong arm to stretch the field horizontally that they are forgetting to stretch the field vertically.  No crossing routes, no inside slants, no in routes, no posts, NOTHING anywhere near the middle of the field, and it didn't look as if Penn State was doing anything special to shut that area of the field off.  In any case, the red zone O is still clicking, and Zeke is getting more north and south runs finally.  The D was gashed again by some big runs.  Rutgers has a reasonably effective RB by committee attack, but no one special RB that will consistently give the Silver Bullets problems (unless Joshua Perry is out, heal up quick #37!).  I expect a pretty similar game to the blackout.  The best part of 7-0?  The chance to go 8-0.  OSU: 45--RUT: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Washington over Stanford
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Tennessee over Alabama
Seeberg:  I canNOT get one of these, ugh.  Let's try Boston College over Louisville.

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