Final Regular Season Standings
1. Draper (51-17, 3-11 upset)
2. Schweinfurth (48-20, 0-14 upset)
3. Seeberg (47-21, 6-8 upset)
4. Hoying (44-24, 2-12 upset)
Bowl Standings Through December 28
1. Draper (18-7)
1. Hoying (18-7)
3. Schweinfurth (14-11)
3. Seeberg (14-11)
Play us off, Jim Mora.
Fiesta Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: This is an interesting matchup because no one really knows anything about Washington. Jake Browning is really good when he's on, but has shown consistency issues. I've heard a lot of talk about the Husky defense, but McSorley and Barkley have the talent to overmatch them. I find it hilarious that Saquon says he hasn't decided about the next level yet (psst...he's going pro--or he's really dumb). This is a 'motivation' type bowl. If the Lions show up sorry for themselves thinking about what could have been, the purple and gold will be celebrating. However, I think Franklin will get a little pride out of the Lions and they'll play for a Fiesta Bowl win and a top 10 finish. Lions force bad Jake Browning and take care of business. UW: 17--PSU: 27
Hoying: I don't think I've watched 5 minutes of Washington football this season. They were exposed as a playoff pretender last year against Alabama and then just kind of existed in a terrible Pac-12 this year until Stanford pulled the rug out from under them. Across the country, Penn State is possibly even better than last year's Rose Bowl runner-up, losing 2 road games to 2 ranked opponents by a combined 4 points. Saquon is looking to make one more impression before bolting to the NFL, and I just don't think Washington is tough enough to handle a punishing Lion attack on both sides of the ball. Another year for Penn State fans to wonder "what if?". Heh. UW: 20--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Interesting that there are two Pac-12/B1G matchups this year. Did anyone really look at this game and say, "I have to watch this?" I know I didn't. I actually forgot this game existed this year (probably because I don't care about the Kitties outside of their annual beating from OSU). Chris Peterson always gets his teams up for the Fiesta Bowl (just ask Oklahoma and TCU). I think it helps the Huskies' case that Saquan Barkley has one eye on the NFL. I'm not sold on Penn State and Trace McSorely plays "500" way too often with his receivers. Not a total blowout, but still a "meh" game to me. UW: 35--PSU: 21
Seeberg: Making these picks after a handful of bowls have already been played lends us some important additional information. Trying not to read too much into things, but the B1G is 3-0 thus far this bowl season. Heck, even Purdue managed to win their bowl game over a more highly touted Pac-12 Arizona team, which provides even more credence to my pick here. I really have a hard time envisioning the Huskies stopping Barkley and Co. often enough to stay in this game. The Nittanys are less than a touchdown from being undefeated this year, and they should pull away from U-Dub in the second half. UW: 20--PSU: 38
Orange Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: One thing not being mentioned is that da U is playing at home which is an odd fluke of the bowl season. Even with that, Wisconsin travels pretty well and should make the dichotomous crowd about 50-50. Miami simply lived and died by the turnover all year, and I don't know if that's enough versus a blue-collar no nonsense Badger squad. If the Badgers get Taylor and the ground game going, good things will happen for the B1G. If Hornibrook has to win it...eeeeeehhhh...the turnover chain might be doing some work. My guess is that there is simply too many injuries on the Cane side to take advantage. The Chain shows up, but Bucky takes the (extremely boring) game. UM: 10 -- UW: 20
Hoying: So now that we've seen them in action against a real live opponent, what do we know about Wisconsin? They are sloooooowwwww. The Buckeyes burned them early for three long TDs (give or take a yard) before misfiring on a couple of other opportunities that could've put the game out of reach in the first half. Wisconsin was opportunistic enough on defense to stay in the game, but that shtick isn't going to work against the Turnover Chain (TM). Miami is battle tested, and while Clemson was a bit too much to handle, they've already played one team that likes to run and gets in trouble when it tries to throw (hi, ND) and had their way with them. In Hard Rock Stadium. It's like poetry, so that they rhyme. UM: 24--UW: 17
Schweinfurth: One team wins by the skin of their teeth and the other grinds the other team to dust. Miami has been very, very lucky this year until the last two games of the season. I'm not sold on them as a top team. Wisconsin is every bit a good team and that defense is nasty in the second half, but it can be beat over the top. Miami had trouble with Clemson's attacking defensive play and the Badgers are similar. This game will be peak Wisconsin. UM: 17--Wisc: 21
Seeberg: Well, Miami went all last-decade Georgia Bulldogs on us at the end of the season. Might not be a coincidence given, you know, the same head coach and all. Wisconsin, meanwhile, looked competent against OSU, losing only by 6, though the Buckeyes shot themselves in the foot a ton...again. If the game is within a score at the half, Wisconsin has the horses to grind down a deflated Hurricane squad. Given how close the B1G championship game was to getting ugly early, the Badgers will be more guarded against that this time, and the Hurricanes will be pounded into submission late. UM: 16--Wisc: 24
Peach Bowl: Central Florida Knights vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: It's all about who wants to be there...but Auburn is WAAAAAAAAAAY better than UCF. Scott Frost is coaching the Golden Knights, but I don't think his heart is in it. The Tigers are really bummed, but a big win in the Peach Bowl will keep them in the top 10. War Eagle musters enough pride to not lose to a Group of Five team and the last perfect season comes to an end. Jarrett Stidham and Kerryon Johnson will be too much with the big uglies leading the way. I don't see the Knights being able to stop the Malzahn offense. UCF: 17 -- Aub: 38
Hoying: Where are these teams' heads? Are Auburn's stuck in the stadium they'll be visiting this Monday, but a month in the past, where their shot at playoff glory died at Georgia's hands? Are UCF's torn between the past on its way to Lincoln and the future swooping in from Columbia? Can anyone stop UCF's offense? What about the team that held Alabama to 14 points and generally pounded them into dust? I don't know the answers to these questions, but my guess is that Auburn will be just deflated enough to make this game interesting, but just talented enough to make a big stop late to preserve a win. UCF: 27--Aub: 28
Schweinfurth: I'll be brief on this one. Teams they lose a head coach before a bowl game tend to struggle, there is just much going on. Auburn's defense is just down right nasty. I'll roll with the Tigers. UCF: 13--Aub: 28
Seeberg: Pretty much all you need to know about Auburn's chances is whether or not Kerryon Johnson is going to play. He is. Bad news for this year's group of 5 hopeful. UCF can certainly score, but it's tough to envision a track meet here given that the mighty(?) Alabama offense managed just 14 against Auburn. I expect UCF to scheme their way to some early scores, but the Tigers' superior horses eventually rule the day. UCF: 17--Aub: 34
Rose Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Perhaps the best game of the bowl season is in the Grandaddy of them All. I was shocked to hear that UGA and OU have NEVER played before. Honestly, the offense in the crimson and cream is fantastic led by the runaway Heisman winner, but the defense is what some may call poo. Georgia has very good defense led by Roquan Smith and a running game that just smashes you in the mouth with Chubb, Michel, and Swift. While OU is the flash, I lean a little to the Dawgs with a nasty D and blue collar running attack. The Sooners have the flash, but Georgia has the smash. I'm going with the Dawgs to slow down the Sooners and dominate the time of possession to shorten the game. UGA: 27 -- OU: 24
Hoying: Do you know how many teams have stopped this OU offense this year? Well, none, although Ohio State was able to contain them for the first half, and Texas was able to stop them for the second. Can Georgia fare any better? You saw what they did to Auburn in Atlanta after getting embarrassed the first time around. You saw what they did to Notre Dame and Mississippi State. But they haven't seen an offense like Oklahoma's. The Buckeyes provided a blueprint for slowing Mayfield down (provided you have better linebackers than OSU does) but his powers have only increased since September. Much is being made of the factoid that Oklahoma's defense is the only Flacco-level non-elite squad on either side of the ball for all 4 playoff teams. I'll see that and raise you Georgia's freshman QB, Jake Fromm, who's long overdue for a few freshman moments to gack a game away. A true freshman QB hasn't won a national championship since Jamelle Holieway did it way back in 1985 for...the Oklahoma Sooners. Expect that streak to continue with any suspense ending a week early. UGA: 24--OU: 34
Schweinfurth: Can Georgia get pressure on Baker Mayfield? The answer to that question will decide this game. The Sooner offensive line is one of, if not the best offensive lines in the country. Kirby Smart has turned this Bulldog defense into a nasty, physical, attack monster. Add that to a tough ground and pound offense and now we have a game. Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country and could barely touch Mayfield all night. Not sure if Georgia will get to him either. UGA: 28--OU: 35
Seeberg: The question here is whether or not Baker Mayfield avoids the dreaded Heisman jinx. We all know OU can score it with anyone, but even their defense has looked...competent-ish the last month or so of the season. That is a good enough recipe to get by this Georgia team that only got into the playoff thanks to Kerryon Johnson being far less than 100% in the SEC title game. IF Georgia runs it well they have a chance in this one, but once the Sooners go up 10+, that plan is out the window late. Boomer Sooner. UGA: 27--OU: 38
Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Another fantastic matchup (have I used that word enough here). I don't like what the committee did with Alabama in the playoff because they haven't proven it on the field which I believe should be the primary criterion. I do think I've figured out the only criterion that matters: Be in a power five conference and don't lose (or lose fewer than others). That's it. OK, back to the game. I do think that Clemson has the better talent and has beaten teams with a pulse this year and I think that will make the difference. Bryant and Etienne are very good, and should be able to spread the solid Bama D out enough to weaken them. Hurts is very good, but if the Tigers can slow down Scarborough and cover Ridley, Dabo will take round 3. A Nick Saban led team with a chip on their shoulder scares me, but Clemson has a more cohesive unit. Bama: 17 -- Clem: 24
Hoying: As I was filling out my bowl picks this year, this was the only one I had to stop and consider for more than 10 seconds. Can Clemson really compete for another national title without Deshaun Watson, a generational talent at QB (although Tajh Boyd was no slouch either...grrr)? Maybe. Maybe Clemson's not quite as good as it was last year. But Alabama DEFINITELY isn't. In their last 4 games, the Tide have (i) been outgained (LSU), (ii) trailed into the 4th quarter (MSU), (iii) been essentially run out of the building (Auburn), and (iv) played a paycheck game (Mercer). Not sure what about that screams "playoff resume," but the Committee needed a 4th team and there wasn't another great option. Despite these troubles, Alabama still has the nation's top scoring defense, but Clemson's right there at #2, having played real live offenses like, well, Auburn, for starters. As long as the Tigers blanket Calvin Ridley all game, they should be fine. For now. Bama: 20--Clem: 21
Schweinfurth: Let's get this out of the way, Alabama does not deserve to be here. I thought the argument for this spot was between USC and OSU...but anyway. Alabama is going to get smoked. There I said it. Clemson had one hiccup against Syracuse and their QB got hurt. All the while, that Tiger defense just crushed opponents. Alabama is beat up and I don't trust Jalyn Hurts throwing the ball. Sorry Little Nicky, but no revenge this year. Bama: 10--Clem: 35
Seeberg: Make no mistake about it kids, these teams are NOT the vaunted juggernauts that have met in back-to-back title games. Clemson is a near unanimous #1 and they have a loss to Syracuse on their resume. Backup QB or not that's just berserk. Alabama, meanwhile, coasted through a down SEC with big wins over...um...uh...still loading. That was all before hitting their usual stumbling block across the state in Auburn. I understand why both teams are in the playoff, but in previous years both of these squads would be out of the top 10. Just a lot of flawed programs this season. In any event, this 'Bama squad seems to be less adept at getting out of its own way than usual, and mistakes are magnified exponentially against better opponents in big games. I expect Clemson to play just a little bit cleaner which will ultimately prove the difference. It won't be the prettiest football to watch either, but Clemson makes a 3rd straight trip to the title game. Bama: 23--Clem: 27
Cotton Bowl: USC Trojans vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes.
Draper: While it's been said a million times, this could have easily been a playoff game. Will the Buckeyes care after the disappointment of being left out of the playoffs? I think so. There is a ton of youth on the Buckeye squad and the future is bright. For me, this game is all about JT Barrett and a final farewell. While the fans in Columbus don't respect what he's done enough, the team would run through a wall for their captain, and they want to send him out on top. I really don't expect Darnold's head to be completely in the game with the draft looming on the horizon. In addition, the Bucks defensive line causes nightmares for any opposing QB and will force questionable throws and hopefully some interceptions. JK Dobbins and Weber versus Ronald Jones might be the biggest measuring stick. I like the Buckeye run D more than the SC run D and that's the game. JT goes for 100 on the ground, 200 through the air and 4 total TDs. Buckeyes take care of business and prepare for another title run in 2018. USC: 31 -- OSU: 45
Hoying: I LOVE this matchup. These teams have met 23 times, including 7 Rose Bowls, with USC currently on a 7 (!) game winning streak. The Buckeyes have beaten the Trojans twice on the way to national titles (1955 and 1969 Rose Bowls) with USC returning the favor twice (1973 and 1975 Rose Bowls). Remember those recent painful home losses to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Texas? Well, USC is the last team to win both games of a home-and-home against the Buckeyes, in 2008-09. The second last team? USC again, in 1989-90! The 2009 USC game is still the most amped I've ever heard Ohio Stadium, and you could feel the deathly silence of 100,000 hearts crushed when Stafon Johnson crossed the goal line with a minute to go. But enough of the history lesson, what should we expect this time? Points, and a lot of them, at least from the Scarlet and Gray. The Trojan defense has only held two opponents below 20 points this season, and one of them was 1-11 Oregon State (who still reached double digits). USC did slow down busted Bryce Love and the Stanford attack, but Notre Dame ran through them like the proverbial tin horn. And neither of those teams had Just Touchdowns Barrett slinging the rock either. The only question mark in this game is the OSU defense's back 7. We know Darnold has the ability to pick a defense apart on a good day, so it'll be up to Greg "Apparently-Not-As-Desirable-As-The-Next-Mini-Saban-Who's-Going-To-Totally-Crash-And-Burn-As-An-SEC-Head-Coach" Schiano to earn his pay scheming the defense away from TE and FB mismatches. The good news is that USC doesn't really throw to the TE that often (sounds like another team I know), so just hope that Arnette and Sheffield don't crap the bed and Darnold keeps stupidly throwing at Ward for some reason, and that the DLine dials up the pressure in the backfield. Buckeyes win to cap a great, yet oddly forgettable, season (hello, 2009). USC: 24--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: I really hope I get to watch this game. Outside of the traditional Rose Bowl match up, (yes this is the Cotton Bowl, you know what I mean) this could easily be the #4 vs. #5 play in game for the playoff. Clay Helton has USC back to relevancy after years of mediocrity (which I enjoyed). I am just not sure they are ready for a pissed off Buckeye team. The last time Ohio State was this mad, they destroyed TTUN and then eviscerated Notre Dame. Want to see fireworks, make the Buckeyes mad. This is JT's swan song and I expect good JT to show up in front of friends and family. Bucks win a close one. The 40+ years of misery are over. USC: 21--OSU: 24
Seeberg: Man, it is so bizarre to see this matchup in anything other than the Rose Bowl. Such is our reality in 2017. USC, as usual, is chock full of talent, but oddly doesn't really boast any wins over quality opponents not named Stanford. Most troubling for the Men of Troy is the absolute thrashing they took at the hands of Notre Dame- a team that spreads you out to run the ball...WITH RUNNING BACKS (hint hint, Urban). Darnold was a turnover machine early in the year, but has calmed down on the back half of the season as he saw millions of future dollars fluttering away from his bank account with each forced INT. USC also has a very good, experienced RB in Ronald Jones, but ball control isn't exactly USC's forte, so shortening the game isn't an option. The 7-game winning streak USC is currently on against the Buckeyes is maddening, but nobody at either program now was around for the last time USC won an infuriating 18-15 Tressel-ball game. Last and most certainly not least, Joe. Thomas. Barrett. I still shake my head at the amount of talk there was about benching him earlier this year. Ludicrous at best. I want to see Dobbins and Weber romp and stomp over USC all night, but what I secretly hope is that Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have concocted some brilliant throwing scheme and J.T. goes for 400+ and 4 TDs to FINALLY shut some people up. Regardless of how it happens, let's get that monkey off our collective backs and look forward to a fun 2018 season. Go Bucks. USC: 24--OSU: 42
Friday, December 29, 2017
Friday, December 01, 2017
Week 14: Step by Step
Standings
1. Draper (45-17, 2-11 upset)
2. Seeberg (42-20, 5-8 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (42-20, 0-13 upset)
4. Hoying (40-22, 1-12 upset)
Step by step, day by day
A fresh start over, a different hand to play
The deeper we fall, the stronger we stay
And we'll be better the second time around
-"Second Time Around", theme song of Step by Step (set in Port Washington, Wisconsin)
Welcome to Championship Week! Nine conferences feature conference championship games this weekend (with the Sun Belt joining the fun next year), and seven, yes, SEVEN of them are rematches. One of the few teams to face a fresh opponent is Ohio State, returning to Indy for the first time since their 2014 tilt against...Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are itching to take the final step toward their third College Football Playoff berth in 4 years, while a septet of other teams just hope to make it better their second time around.
FRIDAY
Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal vs. USC Trojans
Draper: I was the only person that picked USC in the first matchup, but the (stupid) rematch gives me pause. I finally got to watch a little Bryce Love last week and dude can ball. I was extremely impressed....but...he had a few injury concerns pop up recently. He gashed ND (like every team he's faced) unlike Ronald Jones of USC who was stuffed, but Notre Dame was a different team with hopes and dreams when they faced USC--Miami took that swagger from the Irish. Is it actually time to call USC 'back'? No they won't make the playoff, but a conference championship for the first time since 2008? I think it's time to Fight On once again. Stan: 20--USC: 30
Hoying: If I haven't made myself perfectly clear by now (I write most of the intros to these posts), I HATE rematches. ESPECIALLY pointless rematches (which most rematches are). And I'm generally not too keen on conference championship games either (guess why). So, this year, I am going to start every pick with a How Pointless? rating, where I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is. Ahem.
How Pointless? Super Pointless. USC walloped Stanford back in September, then proceeded to finish 8-1 in conference play while Stanford finished 7-2. Any reason to expect something different this time? No. Bryce Love is the same Bryce Love he was back then, while Sam Darnold has eased up on the turnovers he was coughing all over the field early this season. Yeah, that game was in LA and this is in San Francisco-ish but USC is still better, games against Notre Dame notwithstanding. Stan: 24--USC: 34
Schweinfurth: This really feels like it is USC's game to lose. Stanford is beat up. Bryce Love is not the same running back he was before the ankle injury (which is frustrating to watch because the dude is probably the best RB in FBS, suck it Barkley). The only question for me is, can Sam Darnold protect the football. Darnold is a very good quarteback, but makes stupid mistakes at bad times. I think he will throw it to the Cardinal a few times, but USC really is the better team here. Stan: 28--USC: 38
Seeberg: Pretty easy to have picked this matchup for the PAC-12 title preseason, though maybe not where the teams would be sitting, with next to 0 chance of making the CFP. The single best player on the field will still be Bryce Love, but his 160 yards weren't nearly enough to topple the Trojans last time, despite Sam Darnold's early-season penchant for forgetting to which team he should actually throw the ball (including 2 picks against the Cardinal). If Stanford can keep this game close it will mean Bryce Love can be a factor for all four quarters instead of being forced to throw the ball. Unfortunately, given the 623 yards USC racked up last time, that's unlikely to be the case. Stan: 20--USC: 35
SATURDAY
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
Draper: Haven't we seen this before? (Oh yeah, pretty much all these are rematches.) Will the coaches and players still play for that mystical undefeated season when Scott Frost's moving van is more or less already packed for Lincoln? There has to be enough pride on the line to keep that 0 in the L column. UCF is feeling the disrespect from the committee and a win over Memphis...won't change much, but it will help them always have the argument that they belonged. Winner does get a New Year's Six berth so there's more than just pride on the line. The Golden Knights finish the regular season unblemished. Mem: 27--UCF: 40
Hoying: How Pointless? Very Pointless. UCF dismantled Memphis back in October and has been on a tear ever since. It's not like another stellar performance against an AAC team is suddenly going to vault the undefeated Knights into the playoff. The only possible storyline of interest here is UCF coach Scott Frost's focus. It's a coach's market in the carousel this offseason (although NFL coaches are apparently being turned away to keep spots open for Brady Hoke), and Frost is squarely in the crosshairs at his alma mater, Nebraska. Probably won't be enough to make a difference. Mem: 17--UCF: 34
Schweinfurth: UCF is rolling and got really lucky with that kick return last week. Memphis has been known to put up points this year. There is a HUGE cloud around this program with Scott Frost (he gone). It's not enough of a distraction right now for the Knights to blow a spectacular season, but it could be enough to keep it close for a while. Mem: 24--UCF: 35
Seeberg: I'm not 100% sold on the Knights, but they should probably be ranked higher than #14. They did beat a Power 5 team by four touchdowns after all (does Maryland count as a power 5 team?). In any event, this is another rematch where one team is just too much better than the other for the familiarity to make a big enough difference. It probably won't be a 27-point dismantling again, but I don't think the outcome will be in doubt for much of the fourth quarter. Mem: 20--UCF: 38
Big 12: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Why oh why? THe Big 12 has the most pointless championship game because it will ALWAYS be a rematch. Who cares if you lost the first one, the second one determines the "One True Champion"-- FAAARRRTT. I truly want TCU to take down the Sooners to ensure chaos upon chaos, but OU is a juggernaut. Baker Mayfield is an absolute lock for the Heisman and he'll put his finishing move on the Horned Frogs. He may be a jerk, but he's far and away the best player this year. Hot take: even if OU loses this game, they have a really good argument to still make the playoffs. TCU: 24--OU: 35
Hoying: How Pointless? PEAK Pointless. Every team plays every other team in the Big 12. These teams have IDENTICAL wins and losses in conference play except that they had to play each other, and Oklahoma won handily. Even if the Horned Frogs were to somehow win this game, is anyone going to be impressed with "Big 12 Champion" TCU? With a win, TCU would then have the exact same resume as Oklahoma, only without the marquee out-of-conference win. I made the mistake of picking TCU last time in this game. I don't see anyone slowing down the OU offense anytime soon, and there's no way the Horned Frog offense can keep up. TCU: 20--OU: 35
Schweinfurth: TCU has defensively torched most of the Big 12 this year...except for Oklahoma. The Sooners ran up and down the field on the Frogs in the first matchup. I do believe TCU will play better this time. However, the Sooners have soon-to-be-Heisman winner Baker Mayfield and that will be all the Sooners need to move on to the CFP. TCU: 35--OU: 42
Seeberg: Honestly, this rematch, despite being #3 vs. #11, is as yawn-inducing as any in championship week. I'd rather watch MACtion. Rematches have a tendency to go in the opposite direction when teams are roughly equal in terms of talent...which is precisely why this one will NOT go the other way. Sooners big. TCU: 24--OU: 42
SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: This game and the Pac 12 title game are very intriguing. Georgia was embarrassed by Auburn in Jordan Hare 3 weeks ago, and Malzahn had no qualms about running it up. Auburn has been red hot (except against ULM in the first half), but is it time to come down from the extreme emotional high? The Auburn defensive line is fantastic and disruptive. UGA was destroyed in the first meeting and will seek revenge. The running game MUST be successful or the Auburn defense will feast. I think the "more home-field like" confines of Atlanta will make a difference (don't forget, the two season changing wins came in a ballistic Jordan-Hare). The injury to Kerryon Johnson is very concerning for the Tigers as well. If he isn't 100%, I think the Dawgs get their revenge and take their spot in the playoff. Honestly, there's not a great reason to pick UGA with how amazing Auburn's been lately, but I'm going for it. UGA: 30--Aub: 28
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately to Highly Pointless. Both teams finished 7-1 in conference, with Auburn holding the convincing head-to-head victory and playing in the tougher division. And now, after steamrolling the #1 team in the country (again), Auburn has to travel to Atlanta to prove that they weren't kidding the first time they blasted the Dawgs. Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson may be a little banged up, but the steady hand of Jarett Stidham and suffocating Tiger defense should be enough to keep the dream season alive for another month. UGA: 24--Aub: 27
Schweinfurth: This one will be fun, and I don't say that often about these SEC games. Auburn absolutely wrecked Georgia in Athens. That in and of it's self is enough to say the Dawgs are fighting mad (H8 Fuels the Dawg). Auburn is riding that high that comes with knocking off two number one teams. Which is nice, until you realize Kirby Smart comes from the Nick Saban school of revenge. Auburn's defense will play well, but it's the Dawg defense that steps up. It will be nice to see a non-Alabama based school win the SEC for once. UGA: 21--Aub: 17
Seeberg: See above. Kirby Smart has the Bulldogs playing about as well as they're capable and they still got their doors blown off by Auburn the first time around. IIIFFFFF Georgia can capitalize on an Auburn team that comes out flat after their huge Iron Bowl win, then they could pull this one out. But as you can see, that's a pretty big "if". I do expect Auburn to start slow, but not slowly enough for the Bulldogs to get the revenge W. At least one team from Alabama will make the CFP, let's just not hope for two. UGA: 21--Aub: 31
ACC: Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Of all the games this week, I have a feeling this one could get UG-LY. It looked like the Canes were "back" with the turnover chain swagger....but did it? They were fantastic against Notre Dame, but more or less fell into wins over FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC, and to a lesser extent UVA. The team simply thrives off turnovers (credit to Manny Diaz for bringing the chain to daU. Clemson, when healthy, is one of, if not the most complete team in the country. They pooped themselves against Cuse, but they have rocked on the big stage. I don't expect anything different here. The Canes have lost their top receiver on top of other injuries as well and Rozier is not consistent enough to overcome. Tigers big. UM: 10--Clem: 37
Hoying: How Pointless? Actually, not at all. Both teams enter with one (really bad) loss on an otherwise unblemished season. There were no last minute garbage heroics for Miami against Pitt last week, and now Da U has to pick itself up and face its toughest test to date, another Clemson juggernaut that's showed no signs of slowing down after last year's championship run. The Tigers should let their stifling defense choke the life out of a mediocre Hurricane O, avoid taking chances, and keep the turnover chain on the sideline. Miami is...not quite back. UM: 17--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Miami has been living off of turnovers all year. Which is good, until you don't get them and have to drive the full length of the field. Oh, that's what happened last week. And the Hurricanes lost, to Pitt. Clemson is the far superior team here. Mark Richt truely is this generation's John Cooper (Sorry Coop, but it's true)...he just can't win the big one. This one can, and most likely will get ugly. UM:10--Clem: 38
Seeberg: So the U finally caved. This is a CLASSIC Mark Richt team- playing up to the level of competition (see ND, Va Tech) but also down (see just about everyone else- remember, Toledo was beating them at the half). I expect Clemson to bring out the best in the Hurricanes, but their mediocre QB play is just too much to overcome. Tigers pull away late. UM: 13--Clem: 31
B1G: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: How easy could this be? The Buckeyes enter the game after defeating their bitter rival after their all-Big -Ten QB was lost due to injury to face a solid Wisconsin team with a stellar running game. We've seen this play out before! Of course, the Badgers enter this contest with an unblemished record while the Bucks have 2 marks against them. What that tells me is, as we all know, the Buckeyes are very inconsistent. What people don't seem to understand is that 'inconsistent' doesn't mean 'bad'. Which Buckeye team will show up? Will it be the team that blew the doors off the Spartans or the one that looked like second-teamers in Iowa City? The team that couldn't defend home turf vs. the Sooners or the one that fought through adversity, injuries, and an early deficit during the vaunted Wolverine defense (yes, they're really good)? I don't know, but I have to believe that Urban will know how to get the team prepared and good to go. The more I think about it, deserved or undeserved, the Buckeyes will make the playoff with a win over the Badgers and B1G title. Can JT fight through it all (pain, haters, Bucky) to take everything from Wisconsin? It is excruciatingly important the Buckeye's establish a running game (could be with Barrett) and I'd love to see some short crossing routes keep the linebackers on their toes. Defensively, the Bucks need to slow the Badager rushing attack and contain Fumigalli (easier said than done for these linebackers). If the defensive line can turn up the heat early (they took a half before they broke through the Wolverine O-line), the Bucks should take care of business. As for a pick? We've seen this before! It's a clear as day. Go Bucks!! OSU: 59 -- Wisc: 0
Hoying: How Pointless? Low-to-somewhat. Wisconsin is undefeated, while Ohio State is decidedly not. One could argue that the Badgers played in the weaker division, but it was a common opponent, the Hawkeyes from the B1G West, that ran OSU out of the building. At least there's no rematch here, although the Buckeyes and Badgers did meet on this very field only 3 years ago. Wisconsin is no stranger to Indianapolis, making their 5th appearance in the 7-year history of the championship. But they haven't won it all since way back in 2012, when they snuck in behind ineligible Ohio State and Penn State in the Leaders division and embarrassed Nebraska. 59-0 is practically a lifetime ago, but don't expect these Badgers to forget the near-flawless first half they frittered away against the Buckeyes in Madison last season. How do these teams stack up this year? Well, as mentioned above, the Badgers are still undefeated after 12 games, and keep riding the disrespekt train beyond Sparty's wildest dreams. Yeah, their schedule is a little soft, but it's not like they've been falling backwards into wins like Miami has. That Iowa team that made Ohio State look like Rutgers? Wisconsin held them to 66 yards. That Michigan team that jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week? Wisconsin held them to 10 points for the whole game, and that was with a competent quarterback for a half. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers only have the only running back in the B1G outperforming Dobbins this year, Jonathan Taylor (Thomas?), who also happens to be a freshman. No one's going to mistake Alex Hornibrook for JT Barrett anytime soon, but if the Silver Slugs at LB and safety don't lock on to TE Troy Fumagalli early and often, it won't matter. There's too much uncertainty here. The Buckeyes are coming off an emotional win that re-revealed some lingering problems on defense, their star QB is a solid blow to the knee away from spending another postseason on the sidelines, and Wisconsin has just the talent and size on the O-line to negate the Buckeyes' greatest strength, their punishing pass rush. If the Buckeyes can outduel the Badgers on the ground and get big games out of Dobbins and Weber, they can return to Columbus as B1G champions, but Wisconsin is too consistent and too legitimately good. Buckeyes lose a heartbreaker. OSU: 21--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: I want to believe in this team. I want to believe that the Buckeyes are legitimately pissed off that one of their coaches was dragged through the mud. I want to believe the linebackers can cover the tight end. I want to believe that JT Barrett's knee is okay after the scope. I can keep going but it would take all day to list all of the things stacked against the Buckeyes. Here's the deal, the Buckeyes need to get the linebackers help in the secondary on Fumagalli. Watch the line of scrimmage in this one. I think the defensive front will be able to wear down the fat guys of Wisconsin. If the Bullets get at push, watch out. I don't think Taylor will go for over 100 yards. I believe Jazz Peavy, who torched the Bucks last year is out for this game. That will help. This team seams to play its best with their backs against the wall. I think the Badgers win if this game were in Madison. It's not and I think the Bucks are pissed off about Schiano. JT will play, but how much? Haskins is competent and how poetic would if be for another OSU backup to beat Wisconsin in the B1G? GO BUCKS! BEAT THE BADGERS! GET THAT RING! OSU: 30--UW: 21
Seeberg: Okay, we all know the Buckeyes need to win this game- hopefully in style- and have some other things happen ahead of them in the rankings to perhaps squeeze into the playoffs. Let's get down to the basics. Wisconsin is good, very good. Like TTUN version 3.0 with a marginal QB (though markedly better than anything the maize and blue can trot out), a MUCH better offensive line, a comparably stout defense, and a stud RB. Granted, their schedule has been essentially paper mache, but they did hold the Hawkeye offense completely scoreless, you know, the same team that hung 48 offensive points on the Silver Not-Nearly-As-Quick-As-Bullets. It comes down to two things. When the Bucks have the ball, it needs to go to Dobbins and Weber, early and often. LOTS of crosses/slants/intermediate pass routes will open up in play action if J.T. gets the ball out of his hands in the run game early. On defense, the Bucks HAVE to cover TEs and RBs out of the backfield. Hell, bring in a safety to cover Fumagalli I don't care, just do NOT let a TE beat us. I believe the Badgers will impose their will to an extent, especially early, but the depth of the DL for the Buckeyes will start to wear their O-line down in much the same way their O-line is accustomed to wearing out opposing defenses. Avoid the early letdown, take care of the football, and the Bucks superior depth and speed will eventually win the day. Oh, and I'm still toying with the idea of going to this game Saturday night, anybody wanna go? OSU: 31--UW: 21
Upset Special
Draper: Troy over Arkansas State
Hoying: Idaho over Georgia State
Schweinfurth: North Texas over FAU
Seeberg: Coastal Carolina over Georgia Southern
Bonus:
MAC: Akron Zips vs. Toledo Rockets
How Pointless? Exceedingly pointless. The Rockets blew the doors off the Zips back in October, and now Akron is sitting at 6-2 in conference and 7-5 overall. Woof.
C-USA: North Texas Mean Green @ Florida Atlantic Owls
How Pointless? Quite Pointless. The Mean Green have one conference loss, a 69-31 waxing at the hands of...Florida Atlantic, who hasn't lost a C-USA game yet. And now North Texas goes back to Boca Raton to do it again.
Mountain West: Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos
How Pointless? Moderately Pointless. Fresno State lost to a UNLV team that Boise State didn't play, but these teams LITERALLY PLAYED LAST WEEK, with Fresno State earning a comfortable win.
1. Draper (45-17, 2-11 upset)
2. Seeberg (42-20, 5-8 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (42-20, 0-13 upset)
4. Hoying (40-22, 1-12 upset)
Step by step, day by day
A fresh start over, a different hand to play
The deeper we fall, the stronger we stay
And we'll be better the second time around
-"Second Time Around", theme song of Step by Step (set in Port Washington, Wisconsin)
Welcome to Championship Week! Nine conferences feature conference championship games this weekend (with the Sun Belt joining the fun next year), and seven, yes, SEVEN of them are rematches. One of the few teams to face a fresh opponent is Ohio State, returning to Indy for the first time since their 2014 tilt against...Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are itching to take the final step toward their third College Football Playoff berth in 4 years, while a septet of other teams just hope to make it better their second time around.
FRIDAY
Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal vs. USC Trojans
Draper: I was the only person that picked USC in the first matchup, but the (stupid) rematch gives me pause. I finally got to watch a little Bryce Love last week and dude can ball. I was extremely impressed....but...he had a few injury concerns pop up recently. He gashed ND (like every team he's faced) unlike Ronald Jones of USC who was stuffed, but Notre Dame was a different team with hopes and dreams when they faced USC--Miami took that swagger from the Irish. Is it actually time to call USC 'back'? No they won't make the playoff, but a conference championship for the first time since 2008? I think it's time to Fight On once again. Stan: 20--USC: 30
Hoying: If I haven't made myself perfectly clear by now (I write most of the intros to these posts), I HATE rematches. ESPECIALLY pointless rematches (which most rematches are). And I'm generally not too keen on conference championship games either (guess why). So, this year, I am going to start every pick with a How Pointless? rating, where I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is. Ahem.
How Pointless? Super Pointless. USC walloped Stanford back in September, then proceeded to finish 8-1 in conference play while Stanford finished 7-2. Any reason to expect something different this time? No. Bryce Love is the same Bryce Love he was back then, while Sam Darnold has eased up on the turnovers he was coughing all over the field early this season. Yeah, that game was in LA and this is in San Francisco-ish but USC is still better, games against Notre Dame notwithstanding. Stan: 24--USC: 34
Schweinfurth: This really feels like it is USC's game to lose. Stanford is beat up. Bryce Love is not the same running back he was before the ankle injury (which is frustrating to watch because the dude is probably the best RB in FBS, suck it Barkley). The only question for me is, can Sam Darnold protect the football. Darnold is a very good quarteback, but makes stupid mistakes at bad times. I think he will throw it to the Cardinal a few times, but USC really is the better team here. Stan: 28--USC: 38
Seeberg: Pretty easy to have picked this matchup for the PAC-12 title preseason, though maybe not where the teams would be sitting, with next to 0 chance of making the CFP. The single best player on the field will still be Bryce Love, but his 160 yards weren't nearly enough to topple the Trojans last time, despite Sam Darnold's early-season penchant for forgetting to which team he should actually throw the ball (including 2 picks against the Cardinal). If Stanford can keep this game close it will mean Bryce Love can be a factor for all four quarters instead of being forced to throw the ball. Unfortunately, given the 623 yards USC racked up last time, that's unlikely to be the case. Stan: 20--USC: 35
SATURDAY
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
Draper: Haven't we seen this before? (Oh yeah, pretty much all these are rematches.) Will the coaches and players still play for that mystical undefeated season when Scott Frost's moving van is more or less already packed for Lincoln? There has to be enough pride on the line to keep that 0 in the L column. UCF is feeling the disrespect from the committee and a win over Memphis...won't change much, but it will help them always have the argument that they belonged. Winner does get a New Year's Six berth so there's more than just pride on the line. The Golden Knights finish the regular season unblemished. Mem: 27--UCF: 40
Hoying: How Pointless? Very Pointless. UCF dismantled Memphis back in October and has been on a tear ever since. It's not like another stellar performance against an AAC team is suddenly going to vault the undefeated Knights into the playoff. The only possible storyline of interest here is UCF coach Scott Frost's focus. It's a coach's market in the carousel this offseason (although NFL coaches are apparently being turned away to keep spots open for Brady Hoke), and Frost is squarely in the crosshairs at his alma mater, Nebraska. Probably won't be enough to make a difference. Mem: 17--UCF: 34
Schweinfurth: UCF is rolling and got really lucky with that kick return last week. Memphis has been known to put up points this year. There is a HUGE cloud around this program with Scott Frost (he gone). It's not enough of a distraction right now for the Knights to blow a spectacular season, but it could be enough to keep it close for a while. Mem: 24--UCF: 35
Seeberg: I'm not 100% sold on the Knights, but they should probably be ranked higher than #14. They did beat a Power 5 team by four touchdowns after all (does Maryland count as a power 5 team?). In any event, this is another rematch where one team is just too much better than the other for the familiarity to make a big enough difference. It probably won't be a 27-point dismantling again, but I don't think the outcome will be in doubt for much of the fourth quarter. Mem: 20--UCF: 38
Big 12: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Why oh why? THe Big 12 has the most pointless championship game because it will ALWAYS be a rematch. Who cares if you lost the first one, the second one determines the "One True Champion"-- FAAARRRTT. I truly want TCU to take down the Sooners to ensure chaos upon chaos, but OU is a juggernaut. Baker Mayfield is an absolute lock for the Heisman and he'll put his finishing move on the Horned Frogs. He may be a jerk, but he's far and away the best player this year. Hot take: even if OU loses this game, they have a really good argument to still make the playoffs. TCU: 24--OU: 35
Hoying: How Pointless? PEAK Pointless. Every team plays every other team in the Big 12. These teams have IDENTICAL wins and losses in conference play except that they had to play each other, and Oklahoma won handily. Even if the Horned Frogs were to somehow win this game, is anyone going to be impressed with "Big 12 Champion" TCU? With a win, TCU would then have the exact same resume as Oklahoma, only without the marquee out-of-conference win. I made the mistake of picking TCU last time in this game. I don't see anyone slowing down the OU offense anytime soon, and there's no way the Horned Frog offense can keep up. TCU: 20--OU: 35
Schweinfurth: TCU has defensively torched most of the Big 12 this year...except for Oklahoma. The Sooners ran up and down the field on the Frogs in the first matchup. I do believe TCU will play better this time. However, the Sooners have soon-to-be-Heisman winner Baker Mayfield and that will be all the Sooners need to move on to the CFP. TCU: 35--OU: 42
Seeberg: Honestly, this rematch, despite being #3 vs. #11, is as yawn-inducing as any in championship week. I'd rather watch MACtion. Rematches have a tendency to go in the opposite direction when teams are roughly equal in terms of talent...which is precisely why this one will NOT go the other way. Sooners big. TCU: 24--OU: 42
SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: This game and the Pac 12 title game are very intriguing. Georgia was embarrassed by Auburn in Jordan Hare 3 weeks ago, and Malzahn had no qualms about running it up. Auburn has been red hot (except against ULM in the first half), but is it time to come down from the extreme emotional high? The Auburn defensive line is fantastic and disruptive. UGA was destroyed in the first meeting and will seek revenge. The running game MUST be successful or the Auburn defense will feast. I think the "more home-field like" confines of Atlanta will make a difference (don't forget, the two season changing wins came in a ballistic Jordan-Hare). The injury to Kerryon Johnson is very concerning for the Tigers as well. If he isn't 100%, I think the Dawgs get their revenge and take their spot in the playoff. Honestly, there's not a great reason to pick UGA with how amazing Auburn's been lately, but I'm going for it. UGA: 30--Aub: 28
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately to Highly Pointless. Both teams finished 7-1 in conference, with Auburn holding the convincing head-to-head victory and playing in the tougher division. And now, after steamrolling the #1 team in the country (again), Auburn has to travel to Atlanta to prove that they weren't kidding the first time they blasted the Dawgs. Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson may be a little banged up, but the steady hand of Jarett Stidham and suffocating Tiger defense should be enough to keep the dream season alive for another month. UGA: 24--Aub: 27
Schweinfurth: This one will be fun, and I don't say that often about these SEC games. Auburn absolutely wrecked Georgia in Athens. That in and of it's self is enough to say the Dawgs are fighting mad (H8 Fuels the Dawg). Auburn is riding that high that comes with knocking off two number one teams. Which is nice, until you realize Kirby Smart comes from the Nick Saban school of revenge. Auburn's defense will play well, but it's the Dawg defense that steps up. It will be nice to see a non-Alabama based school win the SEC for once. UGA: 21--Aub: 17
Seeberg: See above. Kirby Smart has the Bulldogs playing about as well as they're capable and they still got their doors blown off by Auburn the first time around. IIIFFFFF Georgia can capitalize on an Auburn team that comes out flat after their huge Iron Bowl win, then they could pull this one out. But as you can see, that's a pretty big "if". I do expect Auburn to start slow, but not slowly enough for the Bulldogs to get the revenge W. At least one team from Alabama will make the CFP, let's just not hope for two. UGA: 21--Aub: 31
ACC: Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Of all the games this week, I have a feeling this one could get UG-LY. It looked like the Canes were "back" with the turnover chain swagger....but did it? They were fantastic against Notre Dame, but more or less fell into wins over FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC, and to a lesser extent UVA. The team simply thrives off turnovers (credit to Manny Diaz for bringing the chain to daU. Clemson, when healthy, is one of, if not the most complete team in the country. They pooped themselves against Cuse, but they have rocked on the big stage. I don't expect anything different here. The Canes have lost their top receiver on top of other injuries as well and Rozier is not consistent enough to overcome. Tigers big. UM: 10--Clem: 37
Hoying: How Pointless? Actually, not at all. Both teams enter with one (really bad) loss on an otherwise unblemished season. There were no last minute garbage heroics for Miami against Pitt last week, and now Da U has to pick itself up and face its toughest test to date, another Clemson juggernaut that's showed no signs of slowing down after last year's championship run. The Tigers should let their stifling defense choke the life out of a mediocre Hurricane O, avoid taking chances, and keep the turnover chain on the sideline. Miami is...not quite back. UM: 17--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Miami has been living off of turnovers all year. Which is good, until you don't get them and have to drive the full length of the field. Oh, that's what happened last week. And the Hurricanes lost, to Pitt. Clemson is the far superior team here. Mark Richt truely is this generation's John Cooper (Sorry Coop, but it's true)...he just can't win the big one. This one can, and most likely will get ugly. UM:10--Clem: 38
Seeberg: So the U finally caved. This is a CLASSIC Mark Richt team- playing up to the level of competition (see ND, Va Tech) but also down (see just about everyone else- remember, Toledo was beating them at the half). I expect Clemson to bring out the best in the Hurricanes, but their mediocre QB play is just too much to overcome. Tigers pull away late. UM: 13--Clem: 31
B1G: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: How easy could this be? The Buckeyes enter the game after defeating their bitter rival after their all-Big -Ten QB was lost due to injury to face a solid Wisconsin team with a stellar running game. We've seen this play out before! Of course, the Badgers enter this contest with an unblemished record while the Bucks have 2 marks against them. What that tells me is, as we all know, the Buckeyes are very inconsistent. What people don't seem to understand is that 'inconsistent' doesn't mean 'bad'. Which Buckeye team will show up? Will it be the team that blew the doors off the Spartans or the one that looked like second-teamers in Iowa City? The team that couldn't defend home turf vs. the Sooners or the one that fought through adversity, injuries, and an early deficit during the vaunted Wolverine defense (yes, they're really good)? I don't know, but I have to believe that Urban will know how to get the team prepared and good to go. The more I think about it, deserved or undeserved, the Buckeyes will make the playoff with a win over the Badgers and B1G title. Can JT fight through it all (pain, haters, Bucky) to take everything from Wisconsin? It is excruciatingly important the Buckeye's establish a running game (could be with Barrett) and I'd love to see some short crossing routes keep the linebackers on their toes. Defensively, the Bucks need to slow the Badager rushing attack and contain Fumigalli (easier said than done for these linebackers). If the defensive line can turn up the heat early (they took a half before they broke through the Wolverine O-line), the Bucks should take care of business. As for a pick? We've seen this before! It's a clear as day. Go Bucks!! OSU: 59 -- Wisc: 0
Hoying: How Pointless? Low-to-somewhat. Wisconsin is undefeated, while Ohio State is decidedly not. One could argue that the Badgers played in the weaker division, but it was a common opponent, the Hawkeyes from the B1G West, that ran OSU out of the building. At least there's no rematch here, although the Buckeyes and Badgers did meet on this very field only 3 years ago. Wisconsin is no stranger to Indianapolis, making their 5th appearance in the 7-year history of the championship. But they haven't won it all since way back in 2012, when they snuck in behind ineligible Ohio State and Penn State in the Leaders division and embarrassed Nebraska. 59-0 is practically a lifetime ago, but don't expect these Badgers to forget the near-flawless first half they frittered away against the Buckeyes in Madison last season. How do these teams stack up this year? Well, as mentioned above, the Badgers are still undefeated after 12 games, and keep riding the disrespekt train beyond Sparty's wildest dreams. Yeah, their schedule is a little soft, but it's not like they've been falling backwards into wins like Miami has. That Iowa team that made Ohio State look like Rutgers? Wisconsin held them to 66 yards. That Michigan team that jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week? Wisconsin held them to 10 points for the whole game, and that was with a competent quarterback for a half. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers only have the only running back in the B1G outperforming Dobbins this year, Jonathan Taylor (Thomas?), who also happens to be a freshman. No one's going to mistake Alex Hornibrook for JT Barrett anytime soon, but if the Silver Slugs at LB and safety don't lock on to TE Troy Fumagalli early and often, it won't matter. There's too much uncertainty here. The Buckeyes are coming off an emotional win that re-revealed some lingering problems on defense, their star QB is a solid blow to the knee away from spending another postseason on the sidelines, and Wisconsin has just the talent and size on the O-line to negate the Buckeyes' greatest strength, their punishing pass rush. If the Buckeyes can outduel the Badgers on the ground and get big games out of Dobbins and Weber, they can return to Columbus as B1G champions, but Wisconsin is too consistent and too legitimately good. Buckeyes lose a heartbreaker. OSU: 21--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: I want to believe in this team. I want to believe that the Buckeyes are legitimately pissed off that one of their coaches was dragged through the mud. I want to believe the linebackers can cover the tight end. I want to believe that JT Barrett's knee is okay after the scope. I can keep going but it would take all day to list all of the things stacked against the Buckeyes. Here's the deal, the Buckeyes need to get the linebackers help in the secondary on Fumagalli. Watch the line of scrimmage in this one. I think the defensive front will be able to wear down the fat guys of Wisconsin. If the Bullets get at push, watch out. I don't think Taylor will go for over 100 yards. I believe Jazz Peavy, who torched the Bucks last year is out for this game. That will help. This team seams to play its best with their backs against the wall. I think the Badgers win if this game were in Madison. It's not and I think the Bucks are pissed off about Schiano. JT will play, but how much? Haskins is competent and how poetic would if be for another OSU backup to beat Wisconsin in the B1G? GO BUCKS! BEAT THE BADGERS! GET THAT RING! OSU: 30--UW: 21
Seeberg: Okay, we all know the Buckeyes need to win this game- hopefully in style- and have some other things happen ahead of them in the rankings to perhaps squeeze into the playoffs. Let's get down to the basics. Wisconsin is good, very good. Like TTUN version 3.0 with a marginal QB (though markedly better than anything the maize and blue can trot out), a MUCH better offensive line, a comparably stout defense, and a stud RB. Granted, their schedule has been essentially paper mache, but they did hold the Hawkeye offense completely scoreless, you know, the same team that hung 48 offensive points on the Silver Not-Nearly-As-Quick-As-Bullets. It comes down to two things. When the Bucks have the ball, it needs to go to Dobbins and Weber, early and often. LOTS of crosses/slants/intermediate pass routes will open up in play action if J.T. gets the ball out of his hands in the run game early. On defense, the Bucks HAVE to cover TEs and RBs out of the backfield. Hell, bring in a safety to cover Fumagalli I don't care, just do NOT let a TE beat us. I believe the Badgers will impose their will to an extent, especially early, but the depth of the DL for the Buckeyes will start to wear their O-line down in much the same way their O-line is accustomed to wearing out opposing defenses. Avoid the early letdown, take care of the football, and the Bucks superior depth and speed will eventually win the day. Oh, and I'm still toying with the idea of going to this game Saturday night, anybody wanna go? OSU: 31--UW: 21
Upset Special
Draper: Troy over Arkansas State
Hoying: Idaho over Georgia State
Schweinfurth: North Texas over FAU
Seeberg: Coastal Carolina over Georgia Southern
Bonus:
MAC: Akron Zips vs. Toledo Rockets
How Pointless? Exceedingly pointless. The Rockets blew the doors off the Zips back in October, and now Akron is sitting at 6-2 in conference and 7-5 overall. Woof.
C-USA: North Texas Mean Green @ Florida Atlantic Owls
How Pointless? Quite Pointless. The Mean Green have one conference loss, a 69-31 waxing at the hands of...Florida Atlantic, who hasn't lost a C-USA game yet. And now North Texas goes back to Boca Raton to do it again.
Mountain West: Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos
How Pointless? Moderately Pointless. Fresno State lost to a UNLV team that Boise State didn't play, but these teams LITERALLY PLAYED LAST WEEK, with Fresno State earning a comfortable win.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Grading the Bucks: Week 13-- M!ch!g@n
Just. win. baby. Short post coming here (finals suck) but here goes!
Offense: B
I don't think people realized before this game how good Michigan's defense was. They are (by far) the best defense OSU has faced this year and they balled out. Even with that, and the adversity of playing from behind, and losing a 3 time All-Big-10 QB, the Buckeye offense put up 31 points. That is no small feat on the road against that defense that believes. Major props to Dwayne Haskins for stepping in in a tough spot and delivering. I still see some hesitancy in his mental game, but I love the potential and the future he will bring to Buckeye football. JT, thank you. People still don't give you credit, but you played a good (not great) game while suffering from a weird pregame and ingame injury. All was laid on the line and the team emerged victorious. The running backs were ok (some great some eh...) and the O-line was a Jekyll and Hyde (Billy Price had some beautiful 'sit-down' blocks and a few HUGE mental mistakes). No matter what, 31 points against that defense with a half from a backup QB? HUGE. I got major dejavu of one of my favorite plays in The Game seeing Austin Mack (No.11) make that catch in traffic in the Big House.
Defense: C-
John O'Korn....really. You let John Freaking O'Korn look competent at times. Quite frankly, had John O'Korn been competent, the Buckeyes would have been in real trouble as his consistently missed wide open receivers. Yes, he had a few nice balls, but there were far too many defensive breakdowns for my liking. On top of that, the number of missed tackles was astounding. One of the worst tackling games OSU has had in a while. Nevertheless, when crunch time entered, the Bucks stiffened up and took care of business. Sam Hubbard had a game and he deserves the props. The tackling needs to be fixed before Wisconsin as does the linebackers coverage (gulp, Iowa).
Special Teams: C
Made the FG, punted OK, but the first real punts returned all year gave the punt coverage units fits. DPJ is a really good return man, but he made a play or two that gave the Wolverines hope. That is unacceptable. A 10 yard return? Fine. A 50 yard return to set up a mediocre-to-bad offense up for a 4 yard TD drive? Nope. Didn't give up a kickoff return for a TD so there's that...
Coaching: B-
Again, the playcalling has been a complete mystery. No, I am not on the OSUTwitter bandwagon of "give it to the running back on every play and run into a brickwall", but a little variety would be nice. Also, the lack of slant and crossing routes on early downs is bothersome. Once again, let JT thrive with the underneath passing routes and go over the top when the safeties creep up. It still seems that the coaches want to force JT to throw deep downfield every play (which he's competent but not specialized at) and throw passes with pinpoint accuracy. That is not his skill set. His best talent is his ability to mentally breakdown the defense and find the opening. I would love a dink and dunk offense because that's the skill set. Finally, running JT Barrett is OK (in fact, I'd like more). His mental ability to read the oncoming rushers makes him a savant at the read option (he almost never makes a mistake). Haskins could have sealed the game late had he pulled the ball and taken off (granted that was likely not in the playcall, but...). Yes, JT should hand the ball off on designed runs, but with backs like Dobbins and Weber, the defense collapses on the RB on the zone reads leaving JT free to take off. If it gets me the first down, I'll take it. Defensively, I don't know what was up. Allowing free receivers that even O'Korn should have been able to hit (but often didn't) was frustrating beyond belief. I think the coaches expected to get pressure on every play and didn't focus on any sort of route concepts for the defense.
Overall: A
Weird playcalling, questionable offense, defense out of position...blah, blah, blah. What matters in The Game?
31-20 (Called by me by the way).
It was ugly, but...
31-20.
It should have been worse, but...
31-20.
6 in a row.
13 of the last 14.
All we do is complain and whine. Imagine being in that cesspool to the North. All the ineptitude and failure. We are blessed. Only one thing left to do...win the whole thing. Go Bucks!
Offense: B
I don't think people realized before this game how good Michigan's defense was. They are (by far) the best defense OSU has faced this year and they balled out. Even with that, and the adversity of playing from behind, and losing a 3 time All-Big-10 QB, the Buckeye offense put up 31 points. That is no small feat on the road against that defense that believes. Major props to Dwayne Haskins for stepping in in a tough spot and delivering. I still see some hesitancy in his mental game, but I love the potential and the future he will bring to Buckeye football. JT, thank you. People still don't give you credit, but you played a good (not great) game while suffering from a weird pregame and ingame injury. All was laid on the line and the team emerged victorious. The running backs were ok (some great some eh...) and the O-line was a Jekyll and Hyde (Billy Price had some beautiful 'sit-down' blocks and a few HUGE mental mistakes). No matter what, 31 points against that defense with a half from a backup QB? HUGE. I got major dejavu of one of my favorite plays in The Game seeing Austin Mack (No.11) make that catch in traffic in the Big House.
Defense: C-
John O'Korn....really. You let John Freaking O'Korn look competent at times. Quite frankly, had John O'Korn been competent, the Buckeyes would have been in real trouble as his consistently missed wide open receivers. Yes, he had a few nice balls, but there were far too many defensive breakdowns for my liking. On top of that, the number of missed tackles was astounding. One of the worst tackling games OSU has had in a while. Nevertheless, when crunch time entered, the Bucks stiffened up and took care of business. Sam Hubbard had a game and he deserves the props. The tackling needs to be fixed before Wisconsin as does the linebackers coverage (gulp, Iowa).
Special Teams: C
Made the FG, punted OK, but the first real punts returned all year gave the punt coverage units fits. DPJ is a really good return man, but he made a play or two that gave the Wolverines hope. That is unacceptable. A 10 yard return? Fine. A 50 yard return to set up a mediocre-to-bad offense up for a 4 yard TD drive? Nope. Didn't give up a kickoff return for a TD so there's that...
Coaching: B-
Again, the playcalling has been a complete mystery. No, I am not on the OSUTwitter bandwagon of "give it to the running back on every play and run into a brickwall", but a little variety would be nice. Also, the lack of slant and crossing routes on early downs is bothersome. Once again, let JT thrive with the underneath passing routes and go over the top when the safeties creep up. It still seems that the coaches want to force JT to throw deep downfield every play (which he's competent but not specialized at) and throw passes with pinpoint accuracy. That is not his skill set. His best talent is his ability to mentally breakdown the defense and find the opening. I would love a dink and dunk offense because that's the skill set. Finally, running JT Barrett is OK (in fact, I'd like more). His mental ability to read the oncoming rushers makes him a savant at the read option (he almost never makes a mistake). Haskins could have sealed the game late had he pulled the ball and taken off (granted that was likely not in the playcall, but...). Yes, JT should hand the ball off on designed runs, but with backs like Dobbins and Weber, the defense collapses on the RB on the zone reads leaving JT free to take off. If it gets me the first down, I'll take it. Defensively, I don't know what was up. Allowing free receivers that even O'Korn should have been able to hit (but often didn't) was frustrating beyond belief. I think the coaches expected to get pressure on every play and didn't focus on any sort of route concepts for the defense.
Overall: A
Weird playcalling, questionable offense, defense out of position...blah, blah, blah. What matters in The Game?
31-20 (Called by me by the way).
It was ugly, but...
31-20.
It should have been worse, but...
31-20.
6 in a row.
13 of the last 14.
All we do is complain and whine. Imagine being in that cesspool to the North. All the ineptitude and failure. We are blessed. Only one thing left to do...win the whole
Monday, November 27, 2017
Playoff Scenarios: Order vs. Chaos
Say what you want about the College Football playoffs, but it creates quite the whirlwind of thrilling controversy every year. And this season may be the worst yet. With only one more week of football until the field is selected, there are still about 8 or so teams with a realistic shot at a semifinal berth, with a couple more dreamers clinging to delusional hope. Maybe you would like everything nicely and neatly wrapped up by the time you go to bed on Saturday, or maybe you want to imagine the Committee staying up all night arguing and sweating it out until noon on Sunday. Here's your Let's Go Bucks! guide to Order vs. Chaos.
Order scenario:
Oklahoma beats TCU
Georgia beats Auburn
Clemson beats Miami
Wisconsin beats Ohio State
If the idea of conflict frightens you or you're just perfectly content with not learning anything about how the Committee narrows the playoff field to four teams, then this is the scenario for you. Wisconsin gets in as the lone unbeaten Power 5 team, and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson join them as the only 1-loss Power 5 champions. 11-1 Alabama whimpers for a few minutes before fading away.
Chaos scenario:
TCU blows out Oklahoma
Auburn squeaks by Georgia
Miami grazes Clemson
Ohio State beats Wisconsin competently
(Bonus) USC annihilates Stanford
Oh boy. Now we have some problems.
1-loss teams:
2-loss teams:
Miami's pretty clearly in as the only 1-loss Power 5 champion. That leaves 3 spots for 10 teams. And you can't put any of them in because...
How would such a scenario end up? Only the Committee knows for sure (to the extent they consider hypotheticals), but my guess would be something like this:
#1 Miami (conference champ with best record)
#2 Auburn (conference champ with best wins and forgivable losses)
#3 Ohio State (conference champ with next best wins overcome losses and head-to-head)
#4 Oklahoma (1-1 vs. Big 12 champ TCU with better wins, and better wins than other contenders)
#5 TCU (similar resume to Oklahoma plus conference title minus Ohio State win)
#6 Alabama (dominant wins over mediocre teams)
Order scenario:
Oklahoma beats TCU
Georgia beats Auburn
Clemson beats Miami
Wisconsin beats Ohio State
If the idea of conflict frightens you or you're just perfectly content with not learning anything about how the Committee narrows the playoff field to four teams, then this is the scenario for you. Wisconsin gets in as the lone unbeaten Power 5 team, and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson join them as the only 1-loss Power 5 champions. 11-1 Alabama whimpers for a few minutes before fading away.
Chaos scenario:
TCU blows out Oklahoma
Auburn squeaks by Georgia
Miami grazes Clemson
Ohio State beats Wisconsin competently
(Bonus) USC annihilates Stanford
Oh boy. Now we have some problems.
1-loss teams:
- Miami (11-1, ACC champion)
- Wisconsin (12-1, B1G East champion)
- Alabama (11-1, SEC West co-champion)
2-loss teams:
- Auburn (11-2, SEC champion)
- Ohio State (11-2, B1G champion)
- TCU (11-2, Big 12 champion)
- USC (11-2, Pac-12 champion)
- Clemson (11-2, ACC Atlantic champion)
- Georgia (11-2, SEC East champion)
- Oklahoma (11-2, Big 12...something?)
- Washington (10-2, Pac-12 North co-champion)
Miami's pretty clearly in as the only 1-loss Power 5 champion. That leaves 3 spots for 10 teams. And you can't put any of them in because...
- Wisconsin played a weak schedule, beating exactly one ranked team (#20 or so Northwestern), and didn't win their conference. So you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, Auburn, or TCU (conference champions with tougher schedules), or Clemson, Oklahoma, or Georgia (division champions with tougher schedules)
- Alabama also played a weak schedule, beating exactly two ranked teams (#15-20 or so LSU and Mississippi State). So you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, Auburn, or TCU (conference champions with tougher schedules), or Oklahoma (??? champion with better wins)
- Auburn lost to Clemson, who has the same record. So you can't put them ahead of Clemson (who has their own problems, see below).
- Ohio State got blown out twice, once to Oklahoma and once at an unranked opponent. So you can't put them in ahead of Oklahoma, you can't put them in ahead of TCU (who beat Oklahoma), and it's tough to put them in ahead of Alabama, who lost once, on the road, to a top-tier opponent.
- TCU has two wins against ranked opponents (Oklahoma and #15 or so Oklahoma State), but they went 1-1 against Oklahoma, tainting their top win somewhat. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn or Ohio State (conference champions with tougher schedules). Or even Oklahoma, who has the same record, better wins, a win over TCU, the best regular season Big 12 record, and only doesn't have the Big 12 championship because of a contrived extra game.
- USC got destroyed by Notre Dame and their only win of note is Stanford (twice). Add in that the Pac-12 is the weakest Power 5 conference this season. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn, Ohio State, or TCU (conference champions with better schedules).
- Clemson's loss to Syracuse is the worst of any playoff contender in 4 years. And they lack a conference title. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn, Ohio State, or TCU (conference champions with comparable schedules, except maybe TCU) or Oklahoma or Georgia (forgivable losses, comparable wins)
- Georgia lost twice to Auburn, a team Clemson beat. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn or Clemson, and you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, TCU, or USC (conference champions).
- Oklahoma lost to TCU and didn't win their conference. So you can't put them ahead of TCU, or ahead of Auburn or Ohio State (conference champions with comparable schedules).
- Washington's resume is bad and they should feel bad.
How would such a scenario end up? Only the Committee knows for sure (to the extent they consider hypotheticals), but my guess would be something like this:
#1 Miami (conference champ with best record)
#2 Auburn (conference champ with best wins and forgivable losses)
#3 Ohio State (conference champ with next best wins overcome losses and head-to-head)
#4 Oklahoma (1-1 vs. Big 12 champ TCU with better wins, and better wins than other contenders)
#5 TCU (similar resume to Oklahoma plus conference title minus Ohio State win)
#6 Alabama (dominant wins over mediocre teams)
Friday, November 24, 2017
Week 13: Turkey and Gravy
Standings
1. Draper (41-15, 2-10 upset)
2. Seeberg (38-18, 5-7 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (37-19, 0-12 upset)
4. Hoying (35-21, 1-11 upset)
It's that wonderful week of the year once again. This year we're thankful for turkey and gravy. The gravy is the chance for a sixth straight victory over our rivals to the north after already punching our tickets for Indianapolis next week. And the turkey? That's whatever fool Khakeesi trots out at QB to get devoured by the OSU D line. Happy holidays to rivalries near and far!
FRIDAY
South Florida Bulls @ Central Florida Knights
Draper: This epic battle of group of 5 squads has petered out in a way as the Bulls dropped a contest to Houston, and that is not allowed in the world of the NCAA second tier. While Charlie Strong has the Bulls playing well, Scott Frost is bettering that in Orlando. Has Frost checked out to head to greener pastures in Lincoln? I don't think so. Still work to finish. Neither of these schools has beaten anything with a pulse but one will escape victorious. I'll lean on the Knights. USF: 28 -- UCF: 38
Hoying: The road to the New Year's Six goes through Orlando. South Florida entered this season as the hot crew with the big-shot coach (Charlie Strong) ready to produce a splash. But the schedule was soft, and a loss against Houston took the shine off the apple. UCF, to the contrary, has been shredding foes left and right behind the county's #1 prolific offense. The Knights' quarterback could be the best player you've not heard of this season, and he'll be energized to deliver an AAC east title and take one step closer to a prestigious bowl bid, so long as his coach hasn't absconded to Nebraska by Friday. USF: 24--UCF: 41
Schweinfurth: I have to be fully honest that I have no idea on these two. UCF is higher ranked and not playing on the road. We'll go with that. USF: 35--UCF: 45
Seeberg: This is, in a weird way, by a WIDE gap, the intrastate Florida contest that is absolutely crucial to sort out potential New Year's Six bowls. Anybody have that preseason? Didn't think so. South Florida looked to be in the driver's seat in the non-power 5 until tripping up against Houston (yours truly had that upset). UCF gladly took the torch and hasn't looked back. No reason to believe they will stop now. USF: 31--UCF: 42
SATURDAY
Alaba_a Cri_son Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Honestly, I don't know if there is a good reason to pick the Tide. Their best win is likely over a healthy FSU squad that is fighting for bowl eligibility. Auburn nearly dethroned the reigning holders of the crystal football, defeated the H8 Dawgs of UGA, and have just generally been the better squad all year. And yet....It's still Nick Saban and the Tide. I just get the feeling that this is the contest in which everything gels and the grown adults that reside in Tuscaloosa step up and assert their power over the Tigers. Both defensive lines are solid, but the offensive line for the Tide is always ridiculous. Bo Scarborough and Jalen Hurts get a couple big plays to try to erase the bad recollections of the Kick 6 (news flash: they won't erase everything), but Saban and Co. return to Atlanta for the trillionth straight SEC title bout (at least is feels like that). Ala: 17--Aub: 14
Hoying: Fun fact: Nick Saban has never defeated an Auburn squad that finished a season with at least 9 wins. And here approaches Auburn at 9-2 already. One of these two has been tested on a few occasions this season, with varying results (Georgia good, LSU bad). The other ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwl, but hasn't shown a lot of vulnerability until very recently. Generally, the script for the Tide is to have a scare against an inferior opponent (read: any opponent) and then blow the doors off the next one. The difficulty is that the Tigers are actually an equal challenge to the Tide, they're playing on their own field, and they have a world of possibilities open if they keep winning. This year's Tide isn't quite as good as the group that lost on the Kick Six back in 2013, but they've tightened their grip on their rivals since, and even that standout Auburn crew needed an agelessly fluky play to walk away with a victory. Just don't bet against Nick Saban. Ala: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: This one deserves a PAWWWWWWWL. It's not quite Ohio State vs TTUN but this one is always entertaining to watch. The Tigers just love to torture the Tide in Jordan-Hare (think Kick Six). Auburn's D is legit and showed it by keeping Georgia in the dog house. I still have questions with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball and the Tide D is really banged up. It hurts the Bucks, but I think the Tigers pull this one out. Ala: 17--Aub: 24
Seeberg: Wow, can another Iron Bowl live up to the hype? If Auburn's destruction of Georgia is any indication, the answer is "probably". The difference with this Tide squad as to years' past is they tend to start faster rather than allowing groups to hang around to potentially snatch a W at the end. Auburn is plenty good enough to hang in this one regardless, but Saban and Co. know that- the shellacking of the Bulldogs will have their attention. Saban has struggled to beat good Auburn squads, but the law of averages is bound to start creeping in soon, and the average is Saban winning...a lot. Definitely tuning in for what should be a classic. Ala: 24--Aub: 20
Notre Da_e Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: I have a thing against Stanford. I can't explain it, but I always think they're fake good. Look through past posts and you'll see that track record across the years. I picked USC and Wazzu to win without a lot of support this year and was rewarded. That being said, I have no idea what the Irish are. They had a close loss to UGA and a blowout win over SC...but also a trashing by the Hurricanes and another close call vs. Navy. I will bank on recent history in which ND looked shaky and pick the hated Cardinal. Bryce Love has a decent showing to shore up his spot next to Baker as he hoists the top award in college football. ND: 17--Stan:24
Hoying: Here we have the What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Stanford's Bryce Love and ND's Josh Allen have both been stellar this year but have taken enough Saturdays off to be cease to be a threat to Senor Crotch Chop in the chase for everyone's favorite individual honor. As far as what's still in view for the rest of the players, Stanford can play for a Pac-12 title if the Huskies take care of business this week (they will, see below), and the Irish still have the outsidiest of outside chances to crash the playoff if lots of bed pooping happens these next two weeks. As for this one, both schools are obviously going to sell out to stop the run, and we saw what happened when the Hurricanes did so: ND fell totally to pieces. Would Stanford do any better if they faced a real defense? I don't know, but until I see it happen, I'll take what I know to be true over what I only suspect. Pride will cost you, ND. It's a Cardinal sin. ND: 20--Stan: 28
Schweinfurth: Can the Irish stop Bryce Love? No, but I do think they can slow down the beast. The Stanford has looked pretty eh in a few big contests. I'll take the Irish. Lot's of running in this one though. ND: 21--Stan: 17
Seeberg: Despite there not being a ton on the line here this is an intriguing contest. Two power run squads trying to exert their will on each other. I believe Stanford possesses the superior running back in Bryce Love, but ND has the better lines, particularly on the defensive side. That fact should be just enough to grind out another W. ND: 27--Stan: 21
Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies
Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one knows about (is that nonsensical? Probably). I stayed up last night with the Pac 12 After Dark crew and learned 2 things: 1) Rod G. is a terrible stick in the wet dirt and 2) Washington isn't very good. Wazzu, on the other hand, is led by everyone's favorite giver of advice. While Washington's Browning is capable of delivering the ball, he's not surrounded by enough talent to consistently succeed. The Cougars high-octane, frenetic offense is fun to watch with Leach playing 20-D chess (while all his notes are on a used dinner napkin). I think the Cougars get a second crack at the Trojans to hopefully rinse and repeat the first outing. WSU: 41--UW: 34
Hoying: This ain't your slightly older brother's Crapple Cup. Last year was the first instance since 2000 that the winner was ranked in the top 25, and now both of these traditional punching bags enter ranked in the top 20. The Huskies have looked great this season against a total cupcake schedule that would have Wisconsin drooling. The Cougars, on the other hand, have the Pac-12's best win (beating USC) and a couple of puzzling blowout losses to Arizona and Cal. Coach Leach will be pulling out all the stops to get Washington State to its first Apple Cup victory since 2012 and its first Pac-12 title since 2002, but Washington is just too good on both sides of the ball to let WSU's pass-only attack and ruthless pass rush be causes for concern. This should be fun, but extra fun for the purple and gold. WSU: 27--UW: 35
Schweinfurth: This will be high scoring for sure, and all because of the Cougars. The Huskies play just enough defense and probably force a few turnovers. I think this is PAC-12 after dark, so enjoy loss sleep if you want to watch the Huskies win the Apple Cup. WSU: 28--UW: 42
Seeberg: The Apple Cup. It's actually relevant again! I still don't trust any club run by crazy Leach, but they appear to have righted the ship after a couple of blunders. Washington, in turn, was one of what appeared to be roughly two-thirds of the PAC-12 that had a chance at a 0 or 1-loss season and a CFP birth before blowing it. WAZZOU's wins are better (USC, Stanford) but their losses are worse (Cal by 34?? Ouch.) When all else fails in a relatively even rivalry tilt, go with the squad playing in friendly confines. Huskies in a fun one. WSU: 31--UW: 35
Cle_son Tigers @ South Carolina Ga_ecocks
Draper: Question I posed earlier this season: if I gave 10-1 odds on the Tide and Tigers in the title for the 3rd straight year, would you take it? At that point, I think intelligent cash said yes. While I'd like better odds now, there is no real reason to think we won't see round three. Dabo's boys are incredibly talented and had a hiccup (see Urban in Iowa City). It was a bad loss, but the unit overfloweth with talent. USC-East has been a pleasant surprise with Crazy Will at the fore. Can they rise up to derail the Tigers? I still say no. The Tigers has an overabundance of firepower with Etienne and Bryant while the defense is just plain nasty. On to Charlotte and the Canes for the playoffs. Tigers: 31 -- 'Cocks: 17
Hoying: Is South Carolina good enough to stand toe-to-toe with Dabo and take their first win since Spurrier walked the sidelines? Well, no. On the one hand, SC kept it respectable against Georgia, but they also barely sneaked by Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida. As for the Tigers, they already Tigered as hard as they could Tiger against 4-7 Syracuse, so I wouldn't look for that to be a deciding factor here. Onward toward a huge showdown against da U. Tigers: 38--'Cocks: 20
Schweinfurth: I agree with Hoying on this. South Carolina just doesn't have the horses to hang with the Tigers. Spurier didn't exactly leave the current staff with a full cupboard. Tigers win big. Tigers: 42--SC: 10
Seeberg: The current trajectories of these two schools create a "rivalry in na*e only" situation here. Not a lot to break down. The Tigers are good, the 'cocks are not. That's that. Cle_: 31--: SC: 13
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: The Buckeyes return to the ugliness of Ann Arbor for another epic battle for nothing but the respect and love of our loved ones for the rest of our lives. J.T. Barrett looks to finish with an unsullied slate vs. the hated Wolverines with four straight wins (a feat no OSU QB has achieved). This could solidify his legacy in the Scarlet and Gray forever (honestly, it should be solidified already, but why not build it to new unseen heights?). Let's be honest, the Bucks enter with the superior offense (by a LIGHT YEAR) and probably equal defense. The Wolverines do sport a very good defense, but JT, Dobbins, Weber, and Parris should be able to dent the facade of the sun and gold. On the other side of the ball, the Bullet defensive line should wreak absolute havoc in the OKorn backfield. I predict 4-6 sacks as the Blue offensive line is just awful. The Wolverine defense will keep this scary close for a quarter or two, but talent wins out. JT rides off into the sunset (of Indianapolis) as we're not done yet. OSU: 31 -- TTUN: 20
Hoying: Spot the difference if you can. In 2013, a juggernaut, possibly BCS bound Buckeye squad headed up north to face a Wolverine group with losses to Penn State and Little Brother. Near identical script so far... And 2013 Ohio State barely escaped with a one point victory after Devin Gardner practically drained his life force to will the Wolverines to victory. The difference this year? These Buckeyes know their various vulnerabilities. The 2013 trip to Ann Arbor was the canary in the shaft, the opening scene in a 3-act play showing what an absolute joke the Buckeye defense had devolved into. Hopefully, HOPEFULLY, 55 points courtesy of the Hawkeyes have taught the 2017 Buckeyes their lesson already. Since Brandon Peters got a little tap on the head last week, and Wilton Speight is still recovering after going all "The Dark Knight Rises" against Purdue, the Wolverines will probably have to look to John No-Scorin O'Korin to lead the once-victors to another upset of the century. Against this Buckeye defense? I wouldn't count on it. Last year showed what can happen when JT and friends can't get any consistent attack going, but the Bucks (still) have weapons aplenty beyond what You-Know-Who can handle. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't...OSU: 28--TSUN: 13
Schweinfurth: Was that a good enough send off for JT last week? It depends. He can have a better send off if the Bucks win and he is the first OSU QB to go 4-0 against the Harboogers. The Blue guys have a very good defensive line and, yes, JT will take a few sacks. That offense for TTUN is just horrendous. I don't care if Peters plays or O'Korn, there is a large talent gap between the Bucks and Blue. I still relive the 90's when this contest arrives every year (90's kid, sorry) and dread the final score. The Harboogers are still in denial about "The Spot" and I love it. View last year through that lens and forget about the train that is flying up the tracks this week. Hit hard, run the ball, don't get ejected (Bosa), and show Harharharbooger that a life long contract is a joke if he ever wants to win a B1G East title. 42 is a lucky score for Urban. GO BUCKS!!! BEAT BLUE!!! OSU: 42--TTUN: 17
Seeberg: Good lord, the season is nearly over again! When did that happen?? Such is life, the good die young. After the Illinois shellacking and *ichigan Week officially began, the local post-contest radio show was debating whether it was better to play TTUN right away or savor the full week. I think it depends. I will always, ALWAYS be wary of TTUN, having grown up in the Cooper years when our beloved Buckeyes frequently had a superior squad only to lose, often in odd or spectacular fashion, so when the Bucks are the clear favorites I dread the build-up, lest we experience a letdown. Now, however? In Urban we trust. This year's version of The School Up North boasts a very solid defense, as usual, and...I guess technically an offense? Which, hilariously, is also typical of the squads that Harbaugh has trotted out since he arrived. I've long since lost track of where their current QB actually resides on their full-strength depth chart (side note: TTUN fans will naturally use that as an excuse which is hysterical given our recent title with a 3rd-string QB). Once again, feed J.K. and Weber, execute a few throws, and please avoid OT- the road setting is less forgiving. On(to) Wisconsin. OSU: 27--TTUN: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Georgia Tech over UGA
Hoying: Texas Aggies over LSU
Schweinfurth: WVU over OU
Seeberg: Navy over Houston
P.S. for a special news flash, read the first word of each OSU selection :)
1. Draper (41-15, 2-10 upset)
2. Seeberg (38-18, 5-7 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (37-19, 0-12 upset)
4. Hoying (35-21, 1-11 upset)
It's that wonderful week of the year once again. This year we're thankful for turkey and gravy. The gravy is the chance for a sixth straight victory over our rivals to the north after already punching our tickets for Indianapolis next week. And the turkey? That's whatever fool Khakeesi trots out at QB to get devoured by the OSU D line. Happy holidays to rivalries near and far!
FRIDAY
South Florida Bulls @ Central Florida Knights
Draper: This epic battle of group of 5 squads has petered out in a way as the Bulls dropped a contest to Houston, and that is not allowed in the world of the NCAA second tier. While Charlie Strong has the Bulls playing well, Scott Frost is bettering that in Orlando. Has Frost checked out to head to greener pastures in Lincoln? I don't think so. Still work to finish. Neither of these schools has beaten anything with a pulse but one will escape victorious. I'll lean on the Knights. USF: 28 -- UCF: 38
Hoying: The road to the New Year's Six goes through Orlando. South Florida entered this season as the hot crew with the big-shot coach (Charlie Strong) ready to produce a splash. But the schedule was soft, and a loss against Houston took the shine off the apple. UCF, to the contrary, has been shredding foes left and right behind the county's #1 prolific offense. The Knights' quarterback could be the best player you've not heard of this season, and he'll be energized to deliver an AAC east title and take one step closer to a prestigious bowl bid, so long as his coach hasn't absconded to Nebraska by Friday. USF: 24--UCF: 41
Schweinfurth: I have to be fully honest that I have no idea on these two. UCF is higher ranked and not playing on the road. We'll go with that. USF: 35--UCF: 45
Seeberg: This is, in a weird way, by a WIDE gap, the intrastate Florida contest that is absolutely crucial to sort out potential New Year's Six bowls. Anybody have that preseason? Didn't think so. South Florida looked to be in the driver's seat in the non-power 5 until tripping up against Houston (yours truly had that upset). UCF gladly took the torch and hasn't looked back. No reason to believe they will stop now. USF: 31--UCF: 42
SATURDAY
Alaba_a Cri_son Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Honestly, I don't know if there is a good reason to pick the Tide. Their best win is likely over a healthy FSU squad that is fighting for bowl eligibility. Auburn nearly dethroned the reigning holders of the crystal football, defeated the H8 Dawgs of UGA, and have just generally been the better squad all year. And yet....It's still Nick Saban and the Tide. I just get the feeling that this is the contest in which everything gels and the grown adults that reside in Tuscaloosa step up and assert their power over the Tigers. Both defensive lines are solid, but the offensive line for the Tide is always ridiculous. Bo Scarborough and Jalen Hurts get a couple big plays to try to erase the bad recollections of the Kick 6 (news flash: they won't erase everything), but Saban and Co. return to Atlanta for the trillionth straight SEC title bout (at least is feels like that). Ala: 17--Aub: 14
Hoying: Fun fact: Nick Saban has never defeated an Auburn squad that finished a season with at least 9 wins. And here approaches Auburn at 9-2 already. One of these two has been tested on a few occasions this season, with varying results (Georgia good, LSU bad). The other ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwl, but hasn't shown a lot of vulnerability until very recently. Generally, the script for the Tide is to have a scare against an inferior opponent (read: any opponent) and then blow the doors off the next one. The difficulty is that the Tigers are actually an equal challenge to the Tide, they're playing on their own field, and they have a world of possibilities open if they keep winning. This year's Tide isn't quite as good as the group that lost on the Kick Six back in 2013, but they've tightened their grip on their rivals since, and even that standout Auburn crew needed an agelessly fluky play to walk away with a victory. Just don't bet against Nick Saban. Ala: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: This one deserves a PAWWWWWWWL. It's not quite Ohio State vs TTUN but this one is always entertaining to watch. The Tigers just love to torture the Tide in Jordan-Hare (think Kick Six). Auburn's D is legit and showed it by keeping Georgia in the dog house. I still have questions with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball and the Tide D is really banged up. It hurts the Bucks, but I think the Tigers pull this one out. Ala: 17--Aub: 24
Seeberg: Wow, can another Iron Bowl live up to the hype? If Auburn's destruction of Georgia is any indication, the answer is "probably". The difference with this Tide squad as to years' past is they tend to start faster rather than allowing groups to hang around to potentially snatch a W at the end. Auburn is plenty good enough to hang in this one regardless, but Saban and Co. know that- the shellacking of the Bulldogs will have their attention. Saban has struggled to beat good Auburn squads, but the law of averages is bound to start creeping in soon, and the average is Saban winning...a lot. Definitely tuning in for what should be a classic. Ala: 24--Aub: 20
Notre Da_e Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: I have a thing against Stanford. I can't explain it, but I always think they're fake good. Look through past posts and you'll see that track record across the years. I picked USC and Wazzu to win without a lot of support this year and was rewarded. That being said, I have no idea what the Irish are. They had a close loss to UGA and a blowout win over SC...but also a trashing by the Hurricanes and another close call vs. Navy. I will bank on recent history in which ND looked shaky and pick the hated Cardinal. Bryce Love has a decent showing to shore up his spot next to Baker as he hoists the top award in college football. ND: 17--Stan:24
Hoying: Here we have the What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Stanford's Bryce Love and ND's Josh Allen have both been stellar this year but have taken enough Saturdays off to be cease to be a threat to Senor Crotch Chop in the chase for everyone's favorite individual honor. As far as what's still in view for the rest of the players, Stanford can play for a Pac-12 title if the Huskies take care of business this week (they will, see below), and the Irish still have the outsidiest of outside chances to crash the playoff if lots of bed pooping happens these next two weeks. As for this one, both schools are obviously going to sell out to stop the run, and we saw what happened when the Hurricanes did so: ND fell totally to pieces. Would Stanford do any better if they faced a real defense? I don't know, but until I see it happen, I'll take what I know to be true over what I only suspect. Pride will cost you, ND. It's a Cardinal sin. ND: 20--Stan: 28
Schweinfurth: Can the Irish stop Bryce Love? No, but I do think they can slow down the beast. The Stanford has looked pretty eh in a few big contests. I'll take the Irish. Lot's of running in this one though. ND: 21--Stan: 17
Seeberg: Despite there not being a ton on the line here this is an intriguing contest. Two power run squads trying to exert their will on each other. I believe Stanford possesses the superior running back in Bryce Love, but ND has the better lines, particularly on the defensive side. That fact should be just enough to grind out another W. ND: 27--Stan: 21
Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies
Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one knows about (is that nonsensical? Probably). I stayed up last night with the Pac 12 After Dark crew and learned 2 things: 1) Rod G. is a terrible stick in the wet dirt and 2) Washington isn't very good. Wazzu, on the other hand, is led by everyone's favorite giver of advice. While Washington's Browning is capable of delivering the ball, he's not surrounded by enough talent to consistently succeed. The Cougars high-octane, frenetic offense is fun to watch with Leach playing 20-D chess (while all his notes are on a used dinner napkin). I think the Cougars get a second crack at the Trojans to hopefully rinse and repeat the first outing. WSU: 41--UW: 34
Hoying: This ain't your slightly older brother's Crapple Cup. Last year was the first instance since 2000 that the winner was ranked in the top 25, and now both of these traditional punching bags enter ranked in the top 20. The Huskies have looked great this season against a total cupcake schedule that would have Wisconsin drooling. The Cougars, on the other hand, have the Pac-12's best win (beating USC) and a couple of puzzling blowout losses to Arizona and Cal. Coach Leach will be pulling out all the stops to get Washington State to its first Apple Cup victory since 2012 and its first Pac-12 title since 2002, but Washington is just too good on both sides of the ball to let WSU's pass-only attack and ruthless pass rush be causes for concern. This should be fun, but extra fun for the purple and gold. WSU: 27--UW: 35
Schweinfurth: This will be high scoring for sure, and all because of the Cougars. The Huskies play just enough defense and probably force a few turnovers. I think this is PAC-12 after dark, so enjoy loss sleep if you want to watch the Huskies win the Apple Cup. WSU: 28--UW: 42
Seeberg: The Apple Cup. It's actually relevant again! I still don't trust any club run by crazy Leach, but they appear to have righted the ship after a couple of blunders. Washington, in turn, was one of what appeared to be roughly two-thirds of the PAC-12 that had a chance at a 0 or 1-loss season and a CFP birth before blowing it. WAZZOU's wins are better (USC, Stanford) but their losses are worse (Cal by 34?? Ouch.) When all else fails in a relatively even rivalry tilt, go with the squad playing in friendly confines. Huskies in a fun one. WSU: 31--UW: 35
Cle_son Tigers @ South Carolina Ga_ecocks
Draper: Question I posed earlier this season: if I gave 10-1 odds on the Tide and Tigers in the title for the 3rd straight year, would you take it? At that point, I think intelligent cash said yes. While I'd like better odds now, there is no real reason to think we won't see round three. Dabo's boys are incredibly talented and had a hiccup (see Urban in Iowa City). It was a bad loss, but the unit overfloweth with talent. USC-East has been a pleasant surprise with Crazy Will at the fore. Can they rise up to derail the Tigers? I still say no. The Tigers has an overabundance of firepower with Etienne and Bryant while the defense is just plain nasty. On to Charlotte and the Canes for the playoffs. Tigers: 31 -- 'Cocks: 17
Hoying: Is South Carolina good enough to stand toe-to-toe with Dabo and take their first win since Spurrier walked the sidelines? Well, no. On the one hand, SC kept it respectable against Georgia, but they also barely sneaked by Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida. As for the Tigers, they already Tigered as hard as they could Tiger against 4-7 Syracuse, so I wouldn't look for that to be a deciding factor here. Onward toward a huge showdown against da U. Tigers: 38--'Cocks: 20
Schweinfurth: I agree with Hoying on this. South Carolina just doesn't have the horses to hang with the Tigers. Spurier didn't exactly leave the current staff with a full cupboard. Tigers win big. Tigers: 42--SC: 10
Seeberg: The current trajectories of these two schools create a "rivalry in na*e only" situation here. Not a lot to break down. The Tigers are good, the 'cocks are not. That's that. Cle_: 31--: SC: 13
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: The Buckeyes return to the ugliness of Ann Arbor for another epic battle for nothing but the respect and love of our loved ones for the rest of our lives. J.T. Barrett looks to finish with an unsullied slate vs. the hated Wolverines with four straight wins (a feat no OSU QB has achieved). This could solidify his legacy in the Scarlet and Gray forever (honestly, it should be solidified already, but why not build it to new unseen heights?). Let's be honest, the Bucks enter with the superior offense (by a LIGHT YEAR) and probably equal defense. The Wolverines do sport a very good defense, but JT, Dobbins, Weber, and Parris should be able to dent the facade of the sun and gold. On the other side of the ball, the Bullet defensive line should wreak absolute havoc in the OKorn backfield. I predict 4-6 sacks as the Blue offensive line is just awful. The Wolverine defense will keep this scary close for a quarter or two, but talent wins out. JT rides off into the sunset (of Indianapolis) as we're not done yet. OSU: 31 -- TTUN: 20
Hoying: Spot the difference if you can. In 2013, a juggernaut, possibly BCS bound Buckeye squad headed up north to face a Wolverine group with losses to Penn State and Little Brother. Near identical script so far... And 2013 Ohio State barely escaped with a one point victory after Devin Gardner practically drained his life force to will the Wolverines to victory. The difference this year? These Buckeyes know their various vulnerabilities. The 2013 trip to Ann Arbor was the canary in the shaft, the opening scene in a 3-act play showing what an absolute joke the Buckeye defense had devolved into. Hopefully, HOPEFULLY, 55 points courtesy of the Hawkeyes have taught the 2017 Buckeyes their lesson already. Since Brandon Peters got a little tap on the head last week, and Wilton Speight is still recovering after going all "The Dark Knight Rises" against Purdue, the Wolverines will probably have to look to John No-Scorin O'Korin to lead the once-victors to another upset of the century. Against this Buckeye defense? I wouldn't count on it. Last year showed what can happen when JT and friends can't get any consistent attack going, but the Bucks (still) have weapons aplenty beyond what You-Know-Who can handle. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't...OSU: 28--TSUN: 13
Schweinfurth: Was that a good enough send off for JT last week? It depends. He can have a better send off if the Bucks win and he is the first OSU QB to go 4-0 against the Harboogers. The Blue guys have a very good defensive line and, yes, JT will take a few sacks. That offense for TTUN is just horrendous. I don't care if Peters plays or O'Korn, there is a large talent gap between the Bucks and Blue. I still relive the 90's when this contest arrives every year (90's kid, sorry) and dread the final score. The Harboogers are still in denial about "The Spot" and I love it. View last year through that lens and forget about the train that is flying up the tracks this week. Hit hard, run the ball, don't get ejected (Bosa), and show Harharharbooger that a life long contract is a joke if he ever wants to win a B1G East title. 42 is a lucky score for Urban. GO BUCKS!!! BEAT BLUE!!! OSU: 42--TTUN: 17
Seeberg: Good lord, the season is nearly over again! When did that happen?? Such is life, the good die young. After the Illinois shellacking and *ichigan Week officially began, the local post-contest radio show was debating whether it was better to play TTUN right away or savor the full week. I think it depends. I will always, ALWAYS be wary of TTUN, having grown up in the Cooper years when our beloved Buckeyes frequently had a superior squad only to lose, often in odd or spectacular fashion, so when the Bucks are the clear favorites I dread the build-up, lest we experience a letdown. Now, however? In Urban we trust. This year's version of The School Up North boasts a very solid defense, as usual, and...I guess technically an offense? Which, hilariously, is also typical of the squads that Harbaugh has trotted out since he arrived. I've long since lost track of where their current QB actually resides on their full-strength depth chart (side note: TTUN fans will naturally use that as an excuse which is hysterical given our recent title with a 3rd-string QB). Once again, feed J.K. and Weber, execute a few throws, and please avoid OT- the road setting is less forgiving. On(to) Wisconsin. OSU: 27--TTUN: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Georgia Tech over UGA
Hoying: Texas Aggies over LSU
Schweinfurth: WVU over OU
Seeberg: Navy over Houston
P.S. for a special news flash, read the first word of each OSU selection :)
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