Week 8: Hammer Into Anvil

Standings:
1.) Draper 19-9 (1-6 upset)
1.) Hoying 19-9 (1-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 17-11 (1-6 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 16-12 (4-3 upset)

Congratulations on surviving Chaos Week 2018. Your reward: a quartet of ranked matchups ranging from close to home to the Oregon Territory, and the Buckeyes' second true road test of the year.

#6 Michigan Wolverines @ #24 Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Can the Wolverines get that elusive win over a ranked team on the road (finally)? I'm leaning yes...but what an asterisk against a #24 team.  I really have no faith in the Spartans this year.  Every game I've seen of the Spartans play this year has been a total disaster.  I truly have no clue what happened vs. PSU last week.  Michigan looked great against Wisconsin, although I don't know what that means exactly.  Shea Patterson was fine and I think he'll be just fine again. More importantly, Karan Higdon is playing quite well and I think they get it done (but I still don't care.  UM: 20--MSU: 10
Hoying: Monkey #1 off Jim Harbaugh's back: the Wolverines finally beat a top 15 opponent for the first time since beating Wisconsin (again) back in 2016. But if Monkey #1 was Tiny Kong, then Monkey #2 is Donkey Kong: trying to beat a ranked opponent on the road. The Wolverines haven't this under Jim Harbaugh, nor under Brady Hoke, nor under Rich Rodriguez, not since beating Brady Quinn's Notre Dame back in September 2006. So should the Maize and Blue faithful be worried? Eh...no. Michigan State kind of sucks this year. They got their annual snakebite out of the way last week, taking down Penn State. But, they kind of suck; the offense doesn't work in either capacity and the defense is nothing special either, stymieing of Penn State notwithstanding. The Wolverines, on the other hand, are slowly turning into the death machine we were promised three years ago, with an elite defense, a great running game, and a Krenzel-esque QB who distinguishes himself by not being total garbage like the typical Michigan signal caller under Ol' Khaki. Are they elite? Well, no, but only one team is this year (no prizes for guessing who). But they're certainly good enough to take out years of frustration on Little Brother. UM: 27--MSU: 10
Schweinfurth: Michigan on the road against a ranked team...nothing more needs to be said. UM: 17--MSU: 20
Seeberg: Sparty...yes?  Michigan State turned in a vintage performance last week, turning their game at Happy Valley into a boring slogfest and winning with a late score (see: 2015 vs. Ohio State).  I must admit, seeing Penn State fans sad on TV is, for me, the new seeing UM fans sad, as that has become pretty ubiquitous of late.  At least until this year.  As previously stated here on this site, the Wolverines finally appear to have a competent offense to go with their typically elite D.  Sparty will still be up for this game even after their big win, but the adrenaline can only carry them so far, as the khaki devil gets at least one rivalry win this season.  UM: 31--MSU: 21

#16 North Carolina State Wolfpack @ #3 Clemson Tigers
Draper: NC State may be undefeated, but does anyone care? No.  Clemson got right against Wake, and while State is certainly better, they aren't that good.  Clemson returns to the friendly confines of Death Valley and the 400 yard bus ride and should take care of business.  I know nothing about NC State this year, but Clemson is still the team in the ACC.  Put em at home, and the only chance is to take out all viable QBs (see: Syracuse game).  I don't think NC State has Chubb anymore so lean on the Tigers.  The best chance for the Wolfpack is when Clemson gets caught looking ahead to the Noles...nevermind.  NCSU: 10--Clem: 27
Hoying: Here you have it, folks, the last battle of unbeatens until the playoff, potentially (nobody cares about you, AAC). Just as we all suspected, it's Clemson versus...NC State? Weren't they last year's flash in the pan? And I mean a quick flash, like 8000 shutter speed. But here they are, at 5-0, which I would normally say is a bit of a mirage since they got rained out of the West Virginia game earlier this year. But the 'Neers may have exposed themselves last weekend, so maybe the Pack just got hosed out of what would have appeared to be a quality win. Whatever. Clemson is clicking on a whole different level at the moment, as long as their QBs aren't all injured (or transferred out). NC State's anemic ground game (gulp) will finally catch up to them as the Tigers get their statement win of the season and cruise toward the playoff. NCSU: 10--Clem: 24
Schweinfurth: NCSU: 7--Clem: 35
Seeberg:  Ah yes, the yearly, east-coast version of "is Texas back?".  "Is NC State for real?"  We know they've been churning out high-level QBs for a decade plus now, but not much else.  Their MO is to play the big games close but do something colossally idiotic late, something so bad it could cause them to lose to lesser teams, much less one with a defensive line like Clemson's that rivals the Bucks' D-line even at full strength (RIP Buckeye Bosas- man were they good, wish they had more brothers).  There's just no way the Wolfpack can string together four well-played quarters, which is an absolute necessity to win in Death Valley.  NCSU: 13--Clem: 24

#22 Mississippi State Bulldogs @ #5 Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: Spin the wheel of random ranked matchups in the SEC.  They all cannibalize each other and no one knows if they're any good.  Joe Burrow got the HUGE win against the Dawgs last week (when does LSU leave home?) and Georgia is far....FAR better than Mississippi State.  Nick Fitzpatrick is a nice dual threat QB, but the Tigers are too solid top to bottom.  The Bulldogs were also tenderized by the Tide last week.  Coach O and the Tigers take out the dogs and get ready to be served up as a sacrifice on the altar of Nick Satan...er.. Saban in the near future.  MSU: 17--LSU: 27
Hoying: Didn't we just do this? I feel like we just keep shuffling around the SEC West teams until we find the week's ranked matchup. Whom does Alabama play this week? Oh right, nobody, cause Bama ain't played nobody yet, Pawwwwwl. Maybe they'll be my upset pick this wee....ahahahahahaha. So let's see, LSU vs. MSU. The Bulldogs were in a nosedive until the other tailspinner in the SEC, Auburn blew right past them and crashed first, so MSU got to limp along for a week before getting destroyed by the rest of their schedule. Starting with LSU. There's a possibility for a letdown here after blowing out Georgia (!), and I don't think the Tigers are reeeeallly as good as they looked last week. But this is no look-ahead game; LSU is on a bye next week, so they can afford to turn their whole focus on this matchup. By the way, the MVP for LSU is whoever set up this schedule. Georgia, MSU, and Alabama, three games in a row, all at home? With the bye week right before Bama? I know, the schedule as a whole is brutal, leading off with Miami and getting their annual Florida crossover game, but still. Way to set LSU up for a victory this week. MSU: 17--LSU: 20
Schweinfurth: MSU: 13--LSU: 31
Seeberg:  Hmmm, LSU coming off a big win.  We've been bit by this before, watching them get dumped in the Swamp after crushing Ole Miss.  The win against Georgia came surprisingly easy, however, and may not have taken as much out of the TIgers as anticipated.  Keeping on the 1-loss track, coupled with a hopeful upset over Bama (not likely) gives us Burreaux vs. Haskins in the playoff, which would be just absurdly poetic, possibly the only thing better than watching our 3rd string QB win a national title would be watching our top 2 QBs each lead a team to the CFP.  Lose this one, though, and all that's out the window.  What gives me solace is that the Bulldogs are also coming off a big win, shutting down Auburn last week.  Sorry Clanga, no back-to-back big wins for you.  MSU: 20--LSU: 31

#12 Oregon Ducks @ #25 Washington State Cougars
Draper: You did it Washington State! After literally 15 years of begging for Gameday to come to Pullman with Old Crimson, they have arrived.  Granted, the crew will leave as soon as the show is over to go see a random Ohio State game, but they did come there....under protest.  I love love love Mike Leach as the readers (reader?) of this blog know.  The mad scientist continually reinvents the game (see some weird sideways snaps that arrived earlier this year).  I'm not buying into the Ducks this year (which is likely a mistake), but I'm hearing all this talk about Herbert going number one in the NFL draft (watch out for Haskins) and I don't think he's very good.  Honestly, this is one of the biggest games in Pullman history that isn't an Apple Cup.  I get burned every time, but I'm a child that doesn't learn from past mistakes...Arrrrr MATEY!  Mike Leach gets the win and the Pac12 falls further into obscurity.  Ore: 41--WSU: 45
Hoying: Ugh, they're still ranking Pac-12 teams. And visiting them with national college football shows even though they're at best the 4th most interesting game of the week. I'm pretty sure the Pac-12 died when Pete Carroll left for the Seahawks. Or when he committed all those violations at USC and torpedoed the program before he left. Anyway, Oregon is one stupid comeback away from being unbeaten and Washington State is one blocked field goal and an overtime away from the same, so I guess we should take this write-up seriously. How can we compare these two teams? They both played San Jose State, and they both blew the Spartans out (don't let the Oregon score fool you), so they're both better than a really, really awful team? I don't know. Ducks QB Justin Herbert is supposed to be the next big thing in the NFL, but this is college, baby, and you're not going to out-throw Mike Leach. Gardner Minshew is one of two QBs with more yards than Haskins, and the pirate ship is as on-course as it's ever been, mateys. Ducks suffer a letdown loss and the Cougs press onward in the hunt for their first-ever division title. Ore: 31--WSU: 34
Schweinfurth: Ole' Crimson is going home! Ore: 45--WSU: 38
Seeberg:  Well, this game is the rub for me.  I trusted the Ducks twice, was rewarded once, but was also forced to watch between my fingers at their epic collapse against Stanford.  On the other side of this one, despite a pretty 5-1 record and roughly 87,000 passing yards, the Cougars may just be a mirage, having lost to a down USC squad and mustering just 28 points the next week in a narrow win at home against a ho-hum Utah team.  Oregon got the big-game monkey off their back beating the Huskies last week, and it should carry over against the Pac-12s version of Little Brother.  Ducks win a fun one.  Ore: 42--WSU: 34

#2 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper: Is this the biggest trap game in Ohio State History (since last year's Iowa game)?  I got a feeling about this game, and it's just weird...in a good way.  I know we get everyone's best shot, but everyone has clicked against us recently.  Some of that is due to a defense and O-line that simply aren't as good as we have been used to recently, but sometimes the planets have aligned for the opponents.  I'm feeling a correction coming.  Purdue is one of the highest variance teams in the entire country.  They are ABSOLUTELY capable of winning this game....or being BLASTED.  I'm going with the latter.  If some of those early attacks fall flat (all it takes are some drops/incompletions/turnovers) and the Bucks offense does their job, this could be over by half.  Purdue's staple is their offense but the defense isn't good.  Dwayne Haskins, your table is ready.  Bucks step up early and never let up.  This may be a crazy homer pick, but while I am nervous, I expect something to fall in our favor this week.  The spread is still 13 which is odd in this spot which means the wiseguys know something we don't.  Haskins take over the top spot in the Heisman rankings (?) and the Bucks pull away and never look back.  The defense wants to show they can take care of business without Nick Bosa.  OSU: 58-- Pur: 23
Hoying: I am terrified of this game. The Buckeyes have been playing fast and loose (in a bad way) these past few weeks, including at Penn State, and while the final tallies haven't shown it (except against Penn State), the victories have been a bit too close for comfort. The Boilermakers, after spending September gagging away games they should have won, have been more or less obliterating the teams in their path, unleashing a scary new offense behind QB David Blough. He's no Haskins, but do you implicitly trust trust the Silver Bullets at the moment? True, they only gave up 14 against Minnesota, but some timely turnovers covered up the fact that they were getting gashed again (hello, 2006). Ross-Ade will be, well, not "rocking" per se, but more excited than usual, so the Bucks can't afford to come out flat, particularly on offense. Don't worry too much about the running game; everybody and their brother has been selling out to stop it (400 yards through the air doesn't happen in a vacuum, especially since there's no air in a vacuum), but Haskins will need to be great again if the Bucks are going to make it to the bye week unscathed. He will be. Just enough. (N.B. The spread is currently around 13, which strikes me as way, way too high. But the last two times I thought that were for Michigan State last year and Nebraska in 2016. Do with that what you will.) OSU: 35--PU: 34
Schweinfurth: Go Bucks! OSU: 49--Pur: 28
Seeberg:  The more I think about this game, the more I remember two things.  One:  West Lafayette is just...ugh.  Nothing to do, nowhere to go, and fans so hilariously convinced of their relevance that it's literally guilt-inducing to laugh about it.  And two:  Somehow our football dreams have died there (or at least been on life support *cough* 2002 *cough*) far more times than I care to admit.  Stat #1 that makes this game disconcerting- we literally could not run the ball against the likes of Minnesota, even at home.  Stat #2- The Buckeyes are 117th nationally in giving up plays of 25+ yards (I know, I know, I was surprised too that there are a dozen teams worse).  Stat #3- Purdue leads the Big Ten in plays of 25+ yards.  Make no mistake, David Blough can throw it- and is now taking care of the ball as well- and Rondale Moore is an elite playmaker at the college level.  The return, and hopefully near 100% health, of Malik Harrison and others on D should help, but this one feels like a high-scoring game that will be closer than the double-digit spread indicates.  The only thing that gives me comfort is that I have more faith in the Dwayne-train than I have lack of faith in the Silver Bullets...but by an ever-slimming margin.  Bucks, don't prove me wrong.  OSU: 38--PU: 30

Upset Special
Draper: Colorado over Washington (picking upsets last suck)
Hoying: Vanderbilt over Kentucky
Schweinfurth: Maryland over Iowa
Seeberg: TCU over Oklahoma