1. Hoying 44-11 (4-10 upset)
1. Schweinfurth 44-11 (2-12 upset)
1. Seeberg 44-11 (1-13 upset)
4. Draper 39-16 (2-12 upset)
The #1 seed may have eluded our beloved Buckeyes but we're back in the Playoff again to face a familiar foe, the Tigers. Just like Oklahoma. And Penn State (except for the playoff part, great but not elite). Thankfully, none of these games is on a weekday New Year's Eve (although the Orange Bowl is strangely on a Monday night). For the Bucks, it's just another college football Saturday before a championship Monday night. Beat Clemson.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28
Cotton Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Oh joy....will the Lions be able to get interested in the Little Sister's of the Poor Bowl? Memphis is a fine team, but the athletes don't match up. Add on top of that the fact that Mike Norvell is in Tallahassee equals trouble for the Tigers. Regardless, Memphis is a decent team to beat UC twice, but Penn State is a different monster. If Penn State doesn't take umbrage at the matchup vs. the Group of 5 representative, Sean Clifford and Co. should take care of business. Look for the Tigers to come out swinging but falter in the 2nd half. Mem: 17 -- PSU: 31
Hoying: Welcome to this year's token little brother bowl. The group of Group of 5 teams vying for this slot was a bit thicker than usual, but that was mostly because none of the contenders really set itself apart. Memphis got the nod thanks to the AAC being a bit deeper than the other Group of 5 conferences (maybe even the ACC) but have they really been so great? Beating bad Ole Miss by 5 is nice, but Penn State has been getting real live wins over real live teams not named Ohio State or...Minnesota. Expect this on to be close, as Penn State hasn't put away a quality opponent all year, but the Lions' stifling D is too much for Memphis to handle, especially with their coach already out the door. Mem: 24--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: As much as I railed on and made fun of Penn State this year, they are the better team here. Not only that, they were passed over for the Rose Bowl. Penn State should win, unless they are caught sulking. Mem: 13–PSU: 31
Seeberg: Rough situation for Penn State here, really a no-win scenario (not near as ugly TTUN/Bama, however. I really wish neither team could win). Win even in decent fashion and it still looks iffy for the program to not be able to dominate a group of 5 champion. And in all honesty, that's probably what will happen. In theory, the Nittanys should be able to lean on a reasonably talented but far less deep team than themselves and the talent gap should be evident over four quarters. Here's hoping that theory comes to fruition. Mem: 24--PSU: 35
MONDAY, DECEMBER 30
Orange Bowl: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators
Draper: This is the one. On paper, this shouldn't be close. The Gators defense has been phenomenal all year and the Hoos are coming off a beatdown to Clemson in the ACC championship, but every year, there's one weird result. I'm throwing my chips in the upset bucket here. Florida is a mediocre offensive unit and a power pass rushing team, Bryce Perkins is going to be able to both run and pass in a surprise showing. The Gators have nothing to play for, but the Cavaliers see this as the Superbowl. The Wahoos shock the Gators in Miami (let's not forget this Florida team almost lost in Miami in Week 0...and the Hurricanes are the 2nd best team in the...city. UVA: 24 -- UF: 20
Hoying: Nobody wants to be the bowl stuck with the interloping Group of 5 team, but this year's Orange Bowl may have gotten the shorter end of the stick. You know it's bad when a New Year's Six game has the largest spread (Florida -14.5) in all of bowl season. Although the Peach Bowl's not much better. What's there to say about Virginia? They finally got the Hokie off their back after 15 years, but there's not really another good win on the schedule (because they aren't available in the ACC) and the less said about the Clemson game, the better. UF played a murderer's row including TWO FCS teams and lackluster out of conference matchups against flagging FSU and Miami teams (still better than most of the scheduling in the SEC), picking up a nice win against Auburn and little else. The Gator D has hung tough all year, only faltering against Juggernaut Joe and LSU, and they'll be more than up to the challenge of handling Virginia's pass-only offense. UVA: 13--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: Virginia was the ACC sacrifice to Clemson and felt like they were a bit lucky to be there. Florida has played a much tougher schedule and seemed to be coming on late in the year. Gators win. UVA: 10–UF: 17
Seeberg: OK, I get all the bowl tie-ins to conferences I really do, but letting any ACC team not named Clemson anywhere near a bowl game of consequence is an outright farce. It will be ugly to watch but the SEC gets the...bragging rights (?) of beating a 4-loss ACC squad that mustered just 9 points in a loss against Miami (you know, the team that just got shut out by Louisiana Tech). Bleh. Onto the next one. UVA: 10--UF: 31
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: This might be the best matchup outside of the playoff. Oregon has been playing very well outside of gagging in Tempe while the Badgers are a Lovie Smith miracle from beating undefeated (outside of OSU). While the Badgers didn't last in Indy, they played much better than I think even they expected. Jack Coan looked pretty good while Taylor finally had a non-stinker against the Bucks. Oregon has a defense this year (huh?) but they are led by Justin Herbert who is seen as a top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft (pleeeeease not Cincy). The Wisconsin defense should drive Herbert's stock down. I like the Badgers to nip the Ducks in a fairly low scoring contest. UW: 20 -- Ore: 17
Hoying: The last time these two met in the Rose Bowl it was the Ducks who emerged victorious in a wild shootout that featured Wisconsin spiking the ball on Oregon's 25 down seven with no time left. This year's version of the Ducks gets it done with defense, led by their top 10 ranked rush D. Problem is, Wisconsin's rush defense is even better, and that's after playing JK Dobbins twice. No problem, you may say, Oregon can rely on the big arm of future Bengals #1 overall pick Justin Herbert. Yes problem, because the Wisconsin pass D is stellar as well, and I'm sure you all vividly remember the pressure the Badger pass rush generated against Justin Fields in October and December. Oregon hasn't seen the likes of Jonathan Taylor anywhere in the Pac-12, and now that he's got his mojo working after finally finding some room against the Buckeyes, I expect the Badger momentum to continue into New Year's Day and get the Big Ten its 4th Rose Bowl win this century. UW: 27--Ore: 20
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin is a sneaky good team. The defense is legit...if Chris Orr is healthy.Justin Herbert is good, but the Badgers are very good rushing the passer. The fewer possessions in this game, the better chance the Badgers have to win. Jonathan Taylor goes for 200 and the Badgers win. UW: 28–Ore: 13
Seeberg: Oregon finally looked as good as we THOUGHT they were in not letting Utah off the hook, thrashing them in the PAC-12 title game to the misery of its leaders, further relegating the conference to obscurity. Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked all-world for a half against the Buckeyes before things ultimately righted themselves. Make no mistake, however, both teams are good, but Oregon has exactly 0 answer for Jonathan Taylor, and that's a problem, because when Wisconsin has an elite back, it can make their how-did-this-guy-manage-to-get-a-Division-I-scholarship litany of quarterbacks look so good that some metrics actually have them ahead of Buckeye QBs (no seriously, Hornibrook was rated higher than Haskins last year by a couple measures- it's absurd). Taylor runs wild, the D clamps down, the B1G gets coveted back-to-back Rose Bowl wins. UW: 31--Ore: 16
Sugar Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Does Georgia care? I have no idea, but I'd lean, no. Regardless, can Baylor keep the points flowing against an extremely stingy Dawg D (except against LSU). Georgia has little to no offense as it is, but the defense has been enough in every game but 2 this year. Baylor has been fine nearly winning the Big 12 but continuing to come up short against the Big Bad Sooners. Unfortunately for those that hate the conference that must not be named, if Georgia cares, they should win easily, and if they don't care....I have no idea. I think the smock falls short in the Bayou. Baylor: 13--UGA: 17
Hoying: Let's gaze into our magic crystal snowball and see whether Georgia thinks it can win this game or would prefer to phone it in and then blow off the loss as a lack of motivation. 2019 Baylor isn't quite 2018 Texas: the Longhorns blew a huge lead against OU but came up for a last gasp FG to finish the upset, where as Baylor went to pieces against the Sooners when it mattered and narrowly missed out on being LSU's sacrificial lamb in the Peach Bowl. The Bears blew through their first and second string QB on their way to just missing the playoff (Cardale's legacy is secure) and their status for game day is not clear. On the other sideline, Georgia's already anemic offense is still depleted at wide receiver, and you saw what they did against a good-not-great LSU defense with the pieces they currently have in place. I'm tempted to pick Baylor based on what they did in the first half against OU the first time and their hilarious comeback win over TCU, but Georgia is still much more talented top to bottom, and their defense is angry after being shredded in their home state by Burrow & Co. Baylor: 20--UGA: 23
Schweinfurth: Can Georgia score more than 21 points? That will determine how this goes. The Bulldog offense has been bad and Baylor’s D has been good (for a BIG-12 team). To be honest, Ikm not sold on Georgia. Baylor wins late. Baylor: 24–UGA: 21
Seeberg: Don't expect a lot of points in this one kiddos. Injuries to both squads coupled with less-than-explosive offenses to begin with resulted in both losing title games and shots at the CFP, albeit one team (cough Bulldogs cough) in far more spectacularly awful fashion than the other. The proverbial $64,000 question is as follows: Does Georgia care? Or will they lay an ostrich-sized egg that is somehow swept under the rug by the
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28 again
Peach Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: This playoff features 2 games in which everyone is picking the same teams. No one....NO ONE is giving the Sooners a shot in this game. I think the Heisman tour and the constant barrage of the one seed being perceived as a bye will lull the Tigahs into a false sense of security. Oklahoma, while not on the level of the top 3 teams, is still very good. I expect this to be much tighter than the experts, but LSU is good enough to come back when in a hole. Coach O and company escape with a nailbiter to return to New Orleans for the title. OU: 38--LSU: 41
Hoying: This year's playoff field may be the deepest in the six years of the tournament. Oklahoma, however, is no part of that calculus. Oh sure, they're more appealing than 2017 Alabama (entering the playoff at least) and maybe even their 2015 and 2018 counterparts, but this year's postseason is all about the undefeated blue bloods in the Fiesta Bowl and the Tide-vanquishing unstoppable LSU Tigers. Nobody is giving the Sooners much of a shot in this game, and it doesn't help when you lose your best pass rusher and your change of pace running back to suspension, and then your star safety gets all busted up in practice (not a game). I still don't fully trust LSU and Coach O, and I think the winner of this game loses in New Orleans regardless of how each semifinal plays out, but this seems like an obvious LSU win. So I'm picking LSU, obviously. OU: 27--LSU: 44
Schweinfurth: LSU is clearly the better team. An already overmatched Oklahoma team now has to deal with a few suspensions. The Sooners best chance is to make this a shootout and hope to have the ball last. Unfortunately, LSU should be able to get a few stops. OU: 35–LSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah we jump from what will likely be brutal to watch to what should be a helluva lot of fun. This really shouldn't be a blowout despite the -13.5 betting line in LSU's favor. The Tiger D has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, but that may be due to playing lackluster offenses, which is certainly not what they'll see here. Still, it's tough to imagine any Big 12 D holding the LSU juggernaut down, so unless the Heisman curse (see: Troy Smith, 2006) bites again, LSU rolls into Nola to try to grab a natty. OU: 34--LSU: 45
Fiesta Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Another game in which NO ONE is picking the Buckeyes (this isn't bulletin board material...I haven't found anyone outside of Columbus picking OSU). Clemson is a stellar team, but so is this OSU team. Most of the talking heads have touted the great (#2 in the nation!) average margin of victory for the Tigers (+35.2) which is the excuse for why Clemson's schedule doesn't matter... One problem with this argument...The Bucks are #1 at +36.2 against a MUCH better schedule. Honestly, this game is a pure toss-up. Both teams are extremely talented and fairly similar (stud QB, great skill players, stout defense, etc.). Can Clemson continue their dominance against a real team? Can the Bucks defeat a team that has been a thorn in their side...forever? Let's hope Fields' knee holds up and Chase continues wrecking up the place. The playoff revenge tour starts here. OSU: 35--Clem: 31
Hoying: Clemson sure has looked good this year, haven't they? There was the puzzling sputtering offensive performance against North Carolina (that would have knocked Clemson to, what, the #4 seed had they lost?) but the Tigers have otherwise been basically flawless. They have playoff experience (talking point alert). But big whoop, the Buckeyes have been to a NY6 or BCS bowl every year for the last 7 seasons, and after weathering the Rose Bowl last year I don't think they're going to get caught in the big lights of the big game. The Buckeyes have showed even fewer vulnerabilities than the Tigers, and, to steal the other talking point going into this game, they are battle tested, carving a path of destruction against some of the top defenses and most complete teams in the country. Yes, we know that Clemson has been doing what they can against the terrible competition they've been dealt. Yes, we know the advanced stats put them nearly on par with Ohio State. But the advanced stats loved Utah. Then they folded like a house of cards against the attack of the Ducks. The advanced stats really loved Alabama. Then the Tide played the only two decent teams on their schedule and fell flat against both. Don't let the "eye test" fool you: whom have you played and whom have you beaten? On Sunday morning, after a steady dose of JK Dobbins, who has yet to be stopped in any meaningful way this season, and a few Clemson miscues in the passing game, the Buckeyes will be able to wake up and answer that question for the first time in program history with "the Clemson Tigers". Go Bucks. Beat Clemson. Clem: 28--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This is the first time this year I am not absolutely confident that Ohio State will win. Clemson has talent all over the field and Travis Entienne is a beast. Add in all world QB Trevor Lawrence and Clemson has the best offense Ohio State has played all year. Fortunately, Clemson hasn’t played a team anywhere near the talent of Ohio State. Clemson played one ranked team (UVA) and they were barely ranked. The Bucks have a great shot if Dobbins and the Buckeye offensive line control the Clemson front. I think they can. Lawrence has a tendency to throw the ball in dangerous places so Okudah and company needs to get their hands on passes when the time arises. This feels like the 2015 Sugar Bowl. The outcome should be the same. Clem: 35–OSU:42
Seeberg: Apologies in advance, Buckeye Nation, I have a bad feeling about this one. Six weeks ago I was ready to anoint this 2019 Ohio State iteration the champions of all creation...but that was six weeks ago. Now in late December, chinks have shown in the armor. An injury here, a loss of stud rusher Jonathan Cooper there. A slow start (twice), a defense that was pasted for over 140 rushing yards in a half a week after giving up 250 (!) passing yards in a half. Were those issues ultimately fixed? Mostly. Did the Bucks win those games going away? You bet. Were either of those teams in the same stratosphere as Ohio State or, more importantly, the current opponent? Not even close. Despite all the recent relative struggles, I was still picking the Bucks to win this one until video surfaced a couple days ago of a supposedly "80 to 85 percent" Justin Fields noticeably limping in practice. That was the last straw. I suspect he will still be mobile enough to escape the pocket at times (though he tends to hold the ball too long too often anyhow), but his run threat is compromised, which makes keying to stop Dobbins actually feasible for the first time all season. My other concern is legitimately all-world coach Ryan Day. He admitted he got tight with his play-calling in the PSU game after the miscues made the game close. This game will be close throughout, will he tighten? Maybe, maybe not, but we know Dabo and Venables will be composed and adjust reasonably well. Make no mistake, Ryan Day will have many more opportunities on this stage as the Bucks' head coach, but to be the king you gotta beat the king, and an 80% starting quarterback just isn't gonna do it. *sigh Tigers late. Clem: 31--OSU; 27
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