Undefeated, On the Outside, and Looking In?

Well, it happened again. Only this time the disease struck the Buckeyes instead of their opponent. And now, with two cancellations nerfing the Buckeyes' win column, they find themselves on the precipice of being locked out of the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. That's bad, but not as bad as it could have been. Unlike 2015 and 2016, the Buckeyes aren't looking up at another team atop the Big Ten East standings, as I feared last week. And they aren't quite blocked from the Big Ten Championship hunt until another cancellation hits. But, as we seem to do every year here at Let's Go Bucks (except last year, when the great debate was whether Ohio State would be the #1 seed or the #2 seed), let's run the Playoff scenarios and scout the threats to a fourth Playoff berth. In short, the threats are real, but not likely to be devastating.

BUCKEYE RESUMES

First, let's consider the Buckeyes' possible resumes at season's end. Four of them are pretty simple:

1. Buckeyes play all scheduled games and win out. Buckeyes are in the Playoff as no worse than the #3 seed.
2. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, lose to MSU or UM, but win the Big Ten Championship. Buckeyes are very likely in the Playoff as the #3 or #4 seed.
3. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, beat MSU and UM but lose to Northwestern.  Buckeyes are likely out of the Playoff (behind SEC champ, ACC champ, and Northwestern at least).
4. Buckeyes miss another game and take a loss. Buckeyes. Are. Out.

Now for the chaos scenario: what if Ohio State misses the Michigan State or Michigan game but beats the other, and wins their everybody-gets-a-trophy-weekend game (likely against Wisconsin)? The Buckeyes would still be undefeated, with a win over Indiana that's still likely to great at season's end and a nice win over whoever's #2 in the Big Ten West (and a bunch of wins over total crap). If they aren't in the Playoff, we have to find four teams with better resumes. Can we find four such teams?

PLAYOFF THREATS

Slam Dunks

All of these teams would no doubt get in ahead of 6-0 Ohio State:

1. Undefeated Alabama
2. Undefeated Notre Dame
3. Undefeated Northwestern (yes, slam dunk)

The good news is that all of the above occurring would be pretty good news for the Buckeyes. We'll go into greater detail why below, but the short answer is that it clears out any other major threats to steal a playoff spot from Ohio State.

Wild Card

1. Undefeated Pac-12 champion

Oregon State gave Ohio State a terrific gift by knocking off Oregon last night. The Ducks checked in as the top ranked Pac-12 team in the Playoff Committee's opening rankings, at a humble #15. But they aren't the only undefeated Pac-12 team left. #18 USC is still lurking at 3-0, while Washington and Colorado are sitting unranked at 2-0 each. The Pac-12's problem is that with USC's game being cancelled, each of these teams can play a maximum of five games going into the Pac-12 championship, meaning they can, at best, match Ohio State's six wins on the season. Winning the Pac-12 championship would give the champion a nice feather in their cap that a 6-0 Ohio State won't have, but the rest of their resume would be a bit thin. I suppose one of USC or Colorado hand the other their only loss, then go on to beat undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. However, the champ is going to have to fight a perception problem. The Pac-12 champ has exactly one win in the Playoff era (to be fair, that's one more than the Big 12 and just one fewer than the Big Ten) and haven't made an appearance since Washington in 2016. The Committee was willing to rank Ohio State #4 and Oregon #15 despite the Buckeyes playing just one more game to that point. I don't really see a Pac-12 team jumping up the rankings and overtaking Ohio State while playing the same number of games.

One Loss Threats

We have never seen an undefeated Power 5 team left out of the Playoff, but we have seen one finish behind two one-loss teams (in 2014, 13-0 Florida State finished behind 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Oregon). What teams could finish with one loss and push Ohio State out of the way this year?

First, they would have to be a conference champion, or at least a conference championship game participant. It doesn't make sense to leave out undefeated Ohio State for missing the Big Ten championship while putting in a one-loss team under similar circumstances.

Second, it has to come from a conference garnering at least a minimum level of respect. That means the SEC, the ACC, and the Big Ten (this is a moot point for the Big 12 as they don't have any one-loss teams left).

Third, a one-loss team from the Big Ten is not going to jump undefeated Ohio State, even if they win a conference championship.  Even if Indiana wins out, they're not going to erase 42-35. Even if Maryland wins out, they can't overcome getting whacked by 40 by Northwestern, even if they won a rematch.  And if Northwestern drops a game, they'll plummet too far in the rankings to catch Ohio State, even if they demolish Indiana in Indianapolis.

So whom does that leave?  The following, many of which are mutually exclusive:

1. Clemson (with conference championship)
2. Alabama (with conference championship)
3. Florida (with conference championship)
4. Texas A&M (with conference championship*)
5. Miami (with conference championship)
6. Notre Dame (with conference championship)
7. Notre Dame (without conference championship)
8. Alabama (without conference championship)

*This would require Alabama to lose to Auburn and LSU, so, no.

The "LOL, No" Category

These teams are not making the Playoff ahead of 6-0 Ohio State. Just, LOL, no.

1. One-loss Miami or Texas A&M staying home on Championship Saturday
2. Cincinnati, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Marshall
3. A one-loss Pac-12 team
4. A one-loss Big Ten team
5. Two-loss Big 12 Champion
6. Any other 2-loss team

Best and Worst Cases

So we've narrowed down the threats to the Buckeyes to the following ten teams in some shape or form:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Northwestern
4. Clemson
5. Florida
6. Texas A&M
7. Miami
8. USC
9. Washington
10. Colorado

Obviously, not all of these teams can simultaneously finish with the requisite number of losses to finish ahead of Ohio State. But what are the worst case scenarios? Let's look conference-by-conference for the best and worst cases to aid or hinder Ohio State's Playoff chase.

ACC

Best case: Notre Dame wins out. The Irish go to the Playoff, but Clemson gets knocked out with a second loss.  Miami finishes without any big wins or conference titles, and thus finishes safely behind Ohio State.

Worst case: Clemson and Notre Dame win out until the ACC Championship, which Clemson wins in a nailbiter. Clemson enters the Playoff after avenging their only loss, which they took in double overtime without their best player.  Notre Dame also enters the Playoff, having essentially the same resume as Clemson minus the win over Miami.

Big Ten

Best case: Northwestern loses, preferably to one-loss Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Indiana's game against Wisconsin is cancelled, saving either team from taking another loss. Ohio State beats Wisconsin on championship weekend (but not in the championship game). Every Big Ten team other than Ohio State finishes with a loss. One-loss Indiana has the conference title but can't overcome their head-to-head loss to Ohio State, which continues to bolster the Buckeyes' playoff resume along with the Buckeyes' win over Wisconsin.

Worst case: Northwestern wins out and wins the Big Ten Championship, completing a 9-0 season with wins over Indiana and Wisconsin. Northwestern goes to the Playoff ranked #3 at the worst, as Ohio State has absolutely no argument to be ranked over the Wildcats.

Pac-12

Best case: each of USC, Washington, and Colorado takes a loss. No Pac-12 team sniffs the Playoff.

Worst case: USC hands Colorado its only loss, then smashes undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 Championship. USC sits on six wins, including two quality-ish wins, and a conference title. Probably not enough to pass the Buckeyes, but enough to make them nervous.

SEC

Best case: Bama by a million, week after week. Texas A&M loses another game just for fun. Alabama goes to the Playoff as the #1 seed, and every other team is safely sidelined.

Worst case: One-loss Florida edges undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida goes to the Playoff with the nation's best win and an acceptable 3-point loss to a top five team, while Alabama joins them after smacking Georgia and Texas A&M and taking an acceptable loss.

All the Worst Cases

If you did the math above, you calculated that I lied a little bit in the worst case scenarios, since I apportioned four Playoff spots among five teams (Clemson, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Florida, and Alabama). OK, in that scenario, Alabama gets left out, but that's not the point. The point is that Ohio State is in very real danger of going undefeated and getting left out of the Playoff, but only if a lot of breaks don't go their way. Basically, the undefeated Buckeyes would need three of the following four things to not happen (in decreasing order of devastation):

1. Northwestern wins out
2. One-loss Clemson beats undefeated Notre Dame
3. One-loss Florida beats undefeated Alabama
4. USC, Washington, or Colorado wins out

These are very specific scenarios (except #4, and I'm not even sure that's a threat to the Buckeyes' chances), although only three weeks remain to turn each of them aside.

So buck up, Buckeye Nation. There are still many paths to the playoff, championship game or no championship game. And as a bonus, you get to root harder than ever against Alabama, Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame, USC over the coming weeks.