Standings:
1.) Draper 24-5 (4-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 22-7 (2-5 upset)
3.) Hoying 21-8 (4-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 21-8 (3-4 upset)
And you thought last week was bad, with only two ranked matchups nationwide. How about ZERO this week (OK, Clemson and Pitt are both ranked in the Coaches Poll)? That's not to say that this week is without intrigue, however. Two ranked teams find themselves underdogs against unranked opponents on the road, Clemson gets a chance to score their first win of import this season, and the Buckeyes face a team with more grievances against them than any not clad in maize and blue.
Draper: This may be the only intriguing game this week. UCLA is the hot upset pick, but I'm concerned it's a landmine. Oregon has been a riddle wrapped inside an enigma this year. Questionable against Fresno, great game against OSU, stinker vs. Stanford, flighty vs. Cal....who knows. The Bruins have also yo-yo'd somewhat so this may be a spin the wheel game. I'm going to take the bait. Living on the edge with the Ducks finally crashes down and the Bucks road is clear. Chip Kelly reminds Oregon what they lost when he left. UCLA: 30--Oregon: 27
Hoying: God willing, at season's end we'll all be celebrating another national championship for Ohio State and laughing about that dreadful September loss. "The Oregon game? Ah, what do you expect when you're starting freshmen at every position and you're running last year's defensive scheme?" Of course, that requires a few obstacles to be cleared out of the way, and given the Committee's love for head-to-head wins, the path would be clearest if Oregon would eat another loss or two. As we saw last year (and this year), Oregon's capable of losing to just about anyone, but UCLA appears to be their most fearsome remaining foe. The Bruins are a nice mirror of the Ducks themselves, good at rushing, bad at passing, OK on defense. Thing is, UCLA is a lot better at rush defense than Oregon is, so that side of the ball is going to be strength on strength unless Oregon QB Anthony Brown can break through. Problem is, his sub-50% completion performance against the Buckeyes was still his best of the season, and I don't see him outdueling DTR. The Pac-12's last 1-loss team is (more or less) officially eliminated from the Playoff chase for the 5th straight year. Chip Kelly finally gets his revenge. UO: 27--UCLA: 30
Schweinfurth: Oregon is hurting. Seriously, this is not the same team that upset Ohio State. UCLA has been all over the map, but the Ducks just seem off. I can really see UCLA pulling off the win, but Oregon sill has Kavvon. I'll take the Ducks on the road. UO: 28--UCLA: 24
Seeberg: After a hot start beating ranked teams (although, to be fair UCLA's win over LSU doesn't really count), both squads have been trending very "meh" lately. The Ducks collapsed at Stanford and followed that performance with a mediocre win over Cal. The Bruins, meanwhile, have at least scored two conference road wins in a row at Arizona and UW. In fact, the Ducks are struggling so mightily as a top 10 (!) team that they're actually 2-point underdogs in this game. Still, Oregon has their D-line wrecker Kayvon back and healthy and UCLA is down a couple offensive linemen. That should be just enough of a swing to allow the Ducks to sneak out of the Rose Bowl with another lackluster-looking win. UO: 27--UCLA: 23
Clemson Tigers @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper: Sneaky, sneaky good game here. Most of the advanced analytics have Pitt as a top 15 team (PUT PITT IN!), but can they face off against the Clemson 'juggernaut'. Unfortunately, the Tigers look far more like kittens thus far. Similar to Oregon, they've been playing with fire all season...but it's not due to their defense. The Clemson offense has been shockingly inept all year while Pitt has been rolling (outside of a weird loss to WMU). Pitt has nice wins against Tennessee and VaTech, but I'm not sure if that's quite Clemson level. This just feels like a game Pitt craps away and Clemson flexes it's (puny) muscles. I'm sticking with my priors. Clem: 17--Pitt: 14
Hoying: Great teams find ways to win games. Every week I watch Clemson it looks like they're going to collapse in the fourth quarter, then somehow some catastrophe breaks their way and they escape with a victory. It helps to have the best non-Georgia defense in the country, which played the Dawgs to a draw (you may remember the winning points were a pick-6) and haven't given up more than 14 points in regulation this season. It's tragic, in a way, that it's wasted on one of the worst offenses in the country. Of course, it's not like Clemson's been playing the world-beaters of the ACC lately, either, other than NC State, who was able to pull hand the Tigers their second L of the season. And now Clemson has to visit Pitt, who, outside of a baffling loss against Western Michigan, has quietly been dominating on both sides of the ball. The Panthers even managed to escape Neyland Stadium with a win and no excess mustard. Clemson has been playing with fire far too often this year. Time to get knocked down another peg. Clem: 10--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's offense is butt. There is just no cohesion or rhythm. I really though Syracuse was going to pull of the upset last week. I don't want to say Dabo has lost the team (they are still playing hard), but I do think there is a massive let down. Pitt should be able to take advantage here. Clem: 12--Pitt: 21
Draper: Sneaky, sneaky good game here. Most of the advanced analytics have Pitt as a top 15 team (PUT PITT IN!), but can they face off against the Clemson 'juggernaut'. Unfortunately, the Tigers look far more like kittens thus far. Similar to Oregon, they've been playing with fire all season...but it's not due to their defense. The Clemson offense has been shockingly inept all year while Pitt has been rolling (outside of a weird loss to WMU). Pitt has nice wins against Tennessee and VaTech, but I'm not sure if that's quite Clemson level. This just feels like a game Pitt craps away and Clemson flexes it's (puny) muscles. I'm sticking with my priors. Clem: 17--Pitt: 14
Hoying: Great teams find ways to win games. Every week I watch Clemson it looks like they're going to collapse in the fourth quarter, then somehow some catastrophe breaks their way and they escape with a victory. It helps to have the best non-Georgia defense in the country, which played the Dawgs to a draw (you may remember the winning points were a pick-6) and haven't given up more than 14 points in regulation this season. It's tragic, in a way, that it's wasted on one of the worst offenses in the country. Of course, it's not like Clemson's been playing the world-beaters of the ACC lately, either, other than NC State, who was able to pull hand the Tigers their second L of the season. And now Clemson has to visit Pitt, who, outside of a baffling loss against Western Michigan, has quietly been dominating on both sides of the ball. The Panthers even managed to escape Neyland Stadium with a win and no excess mustard. Clemson has been playing with fire far too often this year. Time to get knocked down another peg. Clem: 10--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's offense is butt. There is just no cohesion or rhythm. I really though Syracuse was going to pull of the upset last week. I don't want to say Dabo has lost the team (they are still playing hard), but I do think there is a massive let down. Pitt should be able to take advantage here. Clem: 12--Pitt: 21
Seeberg: If there was a prop bet on this game at the start of the season that you could wager Clemson would be UNranked and Pitt would be ranked, somebody could have made a fortune because the odds would have been astronomical. Yet somehow, in the year "after" COVID when normalcy was supposed to reign supreme, here we are. Pitt gives up 20 a game, Clemson scores 20 a game. So, is 20 enough to win it for the Tigers? Not this week. Pitt's offense is the best they've seen this season, and the ACC has tired of Clemson's bullying. They're ripe for the taking, and the Panthers get it done. Clem: 20--Pitt: 27
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones
Draper: It would benefit the Buckeyes to see Okie State take an L. I thought last week was the time, but Texas simply isn't back. What to think about Iowa State? Once again...no clue. They were the sexy pick in the Big 12 and everyone was clamoring for the B1G to call up the cyclones with an invite (which would have been very dumb), but that sheen faded quickly. The Clones have shellacked bad teams and struggled against ranked teams all year. While I feel the Pokes are primed to take a fall, I'm not banking on this week (sadly). OkSt: 31--ISU: 28
Hoying: Is it finally time to stop doubting the Cowboys? The other OSU hasn't been exactly blowing out their opponents, but they've ridden a good defense (and playing Texas) to 6 straight wins to open the season. Problem is, Iowa State's defense has looked just as good, and they have a working offense to go with it. Yes, the Ballhawkeyes were able to frustrate the Cyclone attack way back in week 2, but that was largely turnover based. The Oklahoma State defense doesn't live and die by the turnover, so even if they're able to make ISU sputter a bit more often than usual, it won't be enough to make up for their own woeful offensive performance. Saturday closes with Oklahoma alone atop the Big 12 standings, once again. OkSt: 20--ISU: 24
Schweinfurth: Iowa State is due for a big win. It seems like they rise up for one of these games a year. I said it last week, I just don't trust a team that hasn't shown up on my TV. I think the Cyclones are better than their record shows. Party time in Ames. OkSt: 28--ISU: 35
Hoying: Is it finally time to stop doubting the Cowboys? The other OSU hasn't been exactly blowing out their opponents, but they've ridden a good defense (and playing Texas) to 6 straight wins to open the season. Problem is, Iowa State's defense has looked just as good, and they have a working offense to go with it. Yes, the Ballhawkeyes were able to frustrate the Cyclone attack way back in week 2, but that was largely turnover based. The Oklahoma State defense doesn't live and die by the turnover, so even if they're able to make ISU sputter a bit more often than usual, it won't be enough to make up for their own woeful offensive performance. Saturday closes with Oklahoma alone atop the Big 12 standings, once again. OkSt: 20--ISU: 24
Schweinfurth: Iowa State is due for a big win. It seems like they rise up for one of these games a year. I said it last week, I just don't trust a team that hasn't shown up on my TV. I think the Cyclones are better than their record shows. Party time in Ames. OkSt: 28--ISU: 35
Seeberg: I actually glanced at this game as my upset pick before realizing it was one of the games on our agenda this week. I have, officially now, given up all hope of figuring out the Big XII. The Cowboys haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points all season (including a 7-point win over Montana State and a 5-point win over Tulsa) yet they've beaten everyone on their schedule thus far, which includes Baylor and Texas. ISU lost at Baylor and to the Purdue-doormat Hawkeyes. From what I can glean, the plains-states OSU squad does a lot of things fairly well but nothing really well. I can't picture that formula holding up for another half-dozen games. The Cyclones get a signature (?) win for their disappointing 2021 campaign. OkSt: 24--ISU: 31
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
Draper: My pre-season pick for 'team that everyone expects to be good to majorly underachieve' was the Indiana Hoosiers. Why? Whenever a team comes from nowhere to have a strong season, always expect regression to the mean. And boy did we see that. Don't get me wrong, Indiana is still much improved from the last 20 or so years, but they're still Indiana. The Buckeyes on the other hand seem to have found their Stroud....or...stride. I'm actually very surprised that Stroud isn't more in the Heisman conversation (he won't win, but he should be talked about) as he is statistically the best QB in the country by many metrics. This will be the first solid defense the Buckeyes have faced since Oregon, but I think the offense is just clicking too well. Let's not fail to mention a defense that has resurrected from the ashes to be competent (that's good enough). Even though the Hoosiers like to punch above their weight class in this game of late, I don't think they have the horses in Bloomington to make it happen. Bucks get 2 TDs between Olave and Wilson, toss in 2 from Henderson, and another from another receiver (Smith-Njigba?) and you're looking at a nice night. OSU: 41--IU: 20
Hoying: What happened to the Indiana offense? The Hoosiers have been bottled up for a total of 21 points over 3 Big Ten games. Granted, those were against Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State, but last year's team put up at least 24 in each of their first 6 games before running into the Wisconsin brick wall. That being said, this game still makes me uneasy. Remember that this was the defense that made Justin Fields look like a scrub last year, and they're off to another decent start this season. The problem is, you're going to have to defend a lot of short fields when you give the ball away like the Hoosiers do. There's still Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot to worry about, but there will be opportunities for the Silver Bullets to return an interception for a TD for the 5th game in a row. On the other side of the ball, I hated the bye week coming when it did, when the the fearsome Buckeye juggernaut seemed to be poised to peak. Hopefully they can shake off the rust quickly (those of us who lived through the Tressel era still have nightmares about those post bye week offenses). All in all, I don't think this year's Indiana team is as good as last year's, and as long as the defense can keep up the pressure, they'll force enough mistakes for a tight but ultimately comfortable win. IU: 24--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: What is the bigger mirage, this Hoosier team or last year's? I'm going with last year. While the Hoosier D is pretty good, it is prone to the big play. Oh hey, look it's the Buckeye offense who leads the world in yards per play. That looks like a good combination. The defense has had two weeks to continue improving and getting healthy on the line. Indiana's O-Line isn't great and will probably get exposed up the middle. This is another step up for the D and we will have a better idea of where they stand heading into the Nittany Kitty game. This one might get out of hand quick. IU: 14--OSU: 52
Draper: My pre-season pick for 'team that everyone expects to be good to majorly underachieve' was the Indiana Hoosiers. Why? Whenever a team comes from nowhere to have a strong season, always expect regression to the mean. And boy did we see that. Don't get me wrong, Indiana is still much improved from the last 20 or so years, but they're still Indiana. The Buckeyes on the other hand seem to have found their Stroud....or...stride. I'm actually very surprised that Stroud isn't more in the Heisman conversation (he won't win, but he should be talked about) as he is statistically the best QB in the country by many metrics. This will be the first solid defense the Buckeyes have faced since Oregon, but I think the offense is just clicking too well. Let's not fail to mention a defense that has resurrected from the ashes to be competent (that's good enough). Even though the Hoosiers like to punch above their weight class in this game of late, I don't think they have the horses in Bloomington to make it happen. Bucks get 2 TDs between Olave and Wilson, toss in 2 from Henderson, and another from another receiver (Smith-Njigba?) and you're looking at a nice night. OSU: 41--IU: 20
Hoying: What happened to the Indiana offense? The Hoosiers have been bottled up for a total of 21 points over 3 Big Ten games. Granted, those were against Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State, but last year's team put up at least 24 in each of their first 6 games before running into the Wisconsin brick wall. That being said, this game still makes me uneasy. Remember that this was the defense that made Justin Fields look like a scrub last year, and they're off to another decent start this season. The problem is, you're going to have to defend a lot of short fields when you give the ball away like the Hoosiers do. There's still Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot to worry about, but there will be opportunities for the Silver Bullets to return an interception for a TD for the 5th game in a row. On the other side of the ball, I hated the bye week coming when it did, when the the fearsome Buckeye juggernaut seemed to be poised to peak. Hopefully they can shake off the rust quickly (those of us who lived through the Tressel era still have nightmares about those post bye week offenses). All in all, I don't think this year's Indiana team is as good as last year's, and as long as the defense can keep up the pressure, they'll force enough mistakes for a tight but ultimately comfortable win. IU: 24--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: What is the bigger mirage, this Hoosier team or last year's? I'm going with last year. While the Hoosier D is pretty good, it is prone to the big play. Oh hey, look it's the Buckeye offense who leads the world in yards per play. That looks like a good combination. The defense has had two weeks to continue improving and getting healthy on the line. Indiana's O-Line isn't great and will probably get exposed up the middle. This is another step up for the D and we will have a better idea of where they stand heading into the Nittany Kitty game. This one might get out of hand quick. IU: 14--OSU: 52
Seeberg: Anybody have the Hoosiers at 2-4 right now? Usually yes, this year, probably not. Penix Jr's run of injuries appears to have caught up with him as, even when he is on the field, he doesn't seem quite as explosive as the last couple seasons. The Hoosiers' D has improved, to their credit, stifling a good MSU squad pretty much for all four quarters. No IU defense in history (heck, even an amalgamation of their best all-time players) can shut this Buckeye iteration down for a full game, however. I expect a slow start after the bye week, but by mid-second quarter, Stroud and Co. should hit a stride and not look back. I'm more intrigued by the Silver Bullets. For basically a decade now, the defense has had the luxury of having BOTH of the following: elite D-line play that allowed 7 to drop in coverage because pressure consistently came from just the front four, AND one shutdown corner who all but eliminated the top playmaker on the outside. That means 6 defenders can cover just 3/4 of the field and 4 (at most) potential targets. Good numbers. This year, the shutdown corner is not there (although Burke is better than anticipated and may be one come 2022. So, for my money, it's down to the front four. If the Buckeyes can get consistent pressure without blitzing, the back 7, while not as good as it has been, can still hold up. Here's hoping for 2-3 D-line sacks and a fun night game to prep for the big night game next week. IU: 17--OSU: 42
Upset Special
Draper: LSU over Ole Miss
Hoying: USC over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: SCAR over TAMU
Seeberg: Army over Wake Forest
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