Week 14: I'll Be Home For Advent

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 37-15 (3-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 36-16 (5-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 36-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Draper 35-17 (4-9 upset)

When the season's been too lonely
And the road has been too long
And you think that wins are only
For the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in December
Far beneath the bitter snow
Lies the Bowl from the Committee
In the New Year, called the Rose.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

Draper: It seems like yesterday that Utah smashed this Duck team in Salt Lake, but who doesn't love a good rematch (everyone....the answer is everyone). Oregon hasn't looked the same since the game in Columbus, but they do have talent on both sides.  That being said, Tavion Thomas had no trouble running all over the Ducks and I don't see that suddenly changing.  Thibideoux will get his, but they'll neutralize him by simply running the other way. I know beating a team 2x in a season is 'supposedly' difficult, but I think the Ute ground game repeat history. Ore: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: I don't know about you, but after I saw Utah eviscerate the Ducks in Salt Lake City, I was just itching for a chance to see such a thriller repeated. Since the Buckeyes are likely headed to the Rose Bowl, it's probably better to face the evil you know than the evil you don't, but I didn't see anything from Oregon the first time these teams met that would lead me to believe they have any kind of edge over the Utes. I know Utah was in this same position in 2018 and 2019, and Washington and Oregon sneezed during their backswing and ruined their Rose Bowl hopes, but enough has to be enough at some point, right? The Ducks suffer their second loss to Utah (the two Utes?) on their way out of NY6 contention. Ore: 20--Utah: 23
Schweinfurth: Utah straight up bullied the Ducks a couple of weeks ago. That beating was so thorough, I just don't think the Ducks match up with the Utes well. It will be closer due to the second game syndrome, but the Utes should win. Ore: 17--Utah: 24

Seeberg:  We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice in a season" adage.  The first meeting between these two was SO one-sided, however, it's hard to imagine the Ducks making up such a wide margin, even with a slightly healthier roster than the last go-round.  Besides, even if the Ducks manage to win this rematch they'd get a rude awakening in the Rose Bowl.  But no worries, they'll drop this one regardless.  Ore:24--Utah: 34

SATURDAY

Big 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Can the Pokes finish the job? I don't know if everyone understands that Okie State is in serious contention to be in the CFP.  While the Big 12 is 50 ft. of crap (that's losing their 2 biggest names), the Cowboys' defense has been phenomenal.  Baylor has quietly also had a great season with Coach Dave Aranda being targeted left and right (although I think he re-signed with the Bears).  I don't think the Bears are in with a win, I actually think it's very likely the Pokes hop in (look out Cincy...).  Mike Gundy continues one of his best season ever and ends with a Big 12 title.  Bay: 17--OkSt: 24

Hoying: When you see rematches, rematches everywhere during another Championship Saturday, it helps to examine the previous meeting and see if there was any fluky trend that tipped the result in the wrong direction. And no, this was just a standard grind it out defensive victory by 2021 OSU (aaagh). If anything, the fluke in these teams' prior matchup was that Cowboy QB Spencer Sanders was picked off three times. Don't bother trying to take any lessons away from Bedlam last week, other than congratulations on being the weirdest game in the weirdest season since 2007. It's been a nice ride, Baylor, but we'll find another team to take your NY6 slot. Time to start sweating, Cincinnati. Bay: 20--OkSt: 27
Schweinfurth: Baylor had that darling look about them for about the first half of the year. Now, it's OK State. Gundy has the Pokes playing about as well as anyone. For some reason, I smell a shootout. Bay: 35--OkSt: 42

Seeberg: Honestly?  I said it before and I'll say it again:  I gave up trying to figure out the Big XII about halfway through the year.  Still, trusting the Cowboys paid dividends last week.  I'd love to see Baylor win (along with Georgia and others) to produce some chaos for the committee, but the Cowboys play solid football and minimize mistakes, a crucial component of a team this late in the season (see:  Ohio State last week).  Who knows?  Maybe an OSU will make the playoff after all *shrugs*  Bay: 24--OkSt.--31 

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Sigh....It's just....sigh....  This game potentially has monstrous implications for the playoff.  Many think that Bama and UGA are both in regardless.  However, the loser is on the edge.  If you look at these teams' resumes, you find that the quality wins are severely lacking.  UGA has been dominant on defense all year, but who's their best win? Auburn? Clemson?  What about Bama? Auburn in 4 OT? Ole Miss?  Bama should be out with a loss, but UGA becomes an interesting case if UM, OkSt, and Cincy all win.  The Bama name itself was enough to beat the Tigers last week (talent wasn't the reason).  Can the past haunt the Dawgs with an offense that simply isn't as good as thought?  I think it might.  Bama is led by former Buckeye and Biletnikoff finalist (over Earth, Wind, and Fire for some reason), Jameson WIlliams, and they sneak out a win over a relatively untested UGA after a late game crapping away.  UGA: 23--Bama: 24

Hoying: Welcome to Footballmageddon week 2, although, ironically, with much less on the line than last week's headliner in Ann Arbor. Georgia is likely already locked into a Playoff spot win or lose, and after last week's miracle escape from Jordan Hare, the Tide are well positioned to steal the #4 spot with a loss if enough other games break their way. The Dawgs have been doing their best 2019 Ohio State impression after a surprising-in-hindsight tight victory over Clemson in the season opener. But along the way, who has really had the tools to challenge them? Kentucky? Arkansas? The nasty truth the SEC this year is that most teams are clustered around the 6-6 range, and Georgia has been fortunate to escape the more elite teams toward the top of the standings. Alabama, by contrast, has been through the wringer of the West, but not with style. Scoring 3 points in the first 59 minutes against 6-6 Auburn is not going to impress anyone, especially on the heels of giving up 35 to Arkansas. Georgia's defense continues to be the best in the nation to a severe outlier degree (their two closest competitors, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, both got a bit exposed in their rivalry games), but a better kept secret is that the Dawgs have one of the nation's most efficient offenses as well. They just haven't had to do anything this year. I'm a little concerned how Georgia will hold up once they get punched in the mouth by a real threat. Tennessee shook them around for a little while before the dreadnought righted itself (could you imagine being dumb enough to pick Tennessee to pull that upset off?), but I'm not sure the Bulldogs are battle tested enough to stroll to their first national title in 40 years. I think we won't find out the answer to that question against Alabama. I really hope we don't find out the answer against Michigan in the Playoff. Georgia gets revenge for 2018 (and 2017, and 2012) and FINALLY gets the Saban monkey off their back. UGA: 27--Bama: 20

Schweinfurth: Bama has been flirting with disaster for the entire second half of the season. Their defense is capable, but not quite to the standard we are used to seeing. Georgia's defense is for real. It is championship season, and Saban's teams always bring their best when there is a trophy involved. I just don't see it materializing this year. UGA: 28--Bama: 17

Seeberg:  I have to be honest, until last week (and admittedly I may be knee-jerk overreacting to that performance), I was leaning Bama in this one.  UGA really hasn't played anyone in quite some time, and Bama's typically potent offense would easily be the stiffest test for this vaunted Bulldog D.  Then Bama literally forgot to score for FIFTY-THREE BLEEPING MINUTES and somehow slithered to an atrocious 4-OT win against 6-loss (lol) Auburn.  At that rate, it might take 153 minutes to put points on the board against Georgia this season.  Either way, it's a race to 20, and I can't fathom the Tide making it there after last week.  UGA "pulls away" late.  UGA: 24--Bama: 16

AAC: Houston Wildcats @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Don't care.....Cincy is clearly the superior team, but they need to finish the job.  Fickell remains in the first Cincy victory, the 2nd would be an AAC championship, and the 3rd would be a playoff berth.  If Cincy wins convincingly, I think they're safe....maybe. However, there is always the chance that they get complacent down the stretch.  Fickell will rally the troops to care care of business and prepare to get wrecked in the semis.  Hou: 24--UC: 34

Hoying: It's all at your fingertips, UC. You've cracked the top 4, your coach isn't leaving for Notre Dame, USC, or LSU, and you have one last shot at a quality (but not too daunting) opponent to leave a last good impression on the Committee. Should the Bearcats be worried about Houston? Not really. Sure, they're undefeated in the AAC, but *waves hands dismissively*, and they got suffered an embarrassing lead-squandering loss to Texas Tech to start the season. UC has snapped out of whatever midseason funk that was causing them to sleepwalk through a few forgettable games. The hopes and dreams of the entire Group of 5 rest on you, Coach Fick. Go get it. Hou: 20--Cin: 31
Schweinfurth: Big props to Fickell for sticking with the Bearcats. That is no small thing and should amp Cincy up even more for this one. Houston is a fine team, but they are standing in the way of Group of 6 history. Bearcats win and on to the playoffs. Hou: 17--Cin: 35

Seeberg:  So.  Much.  Drama.  The coaching carousel has jumped into hyperdrive/up to 11/engaged at warp 9/whatever pop culture reference to something being fast.  Fickell staying with the Bearcats is huge, but we are literally in unprecdented times with a group of five team firmly established in the top 4.  It has GOT to be difficult for the Bearcats to tune out the noise and focus on the task at hand.  I'm sorry, what's the Houston?  I know, nobody knows you're in the game (and ranked!)  either.  I sense that Cinci will come out TOO hyped and fire an INT or even two.  I may be an eternally pessimistic individual, but with everything that swirled around Hamilton County this week I just don't see a solid, workman like Cincinnati effort.  This is Houston's playoff, and it will show from the opening kick.  Great run while it lasted, UC.  HOU: 31--Cin: 28

ACC: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Both of these teams have been in a NY6 bowl in the BCS era....shocker, right? They were also among the worst BCS teams to snag a bid (hello, UConn!).  Kenny Pickett has had a fantastic year leading him to begin a quiet rise up the draft boards.  Wake just messed around all year to get a 10-win season and an ACC Atlantic title.  This is an ACC Wheel of Destiny type of game, but Pitt seems to have the edge.  I think they pull it out.  Put Pitt in! Pitt: 35--Wake: 24

Hoying: Start your engines, boys. Both of these teams rank in the top ten of scoring offense, and one of them (*cough Wake*) doesn't play defense so good. After a scorching hot start, the Demon Deacons morphed into more of a flaming wreck down the stretched but still managed to lock Florida State and Clemson out of the Atlantic division title for the first time since 2008. Pitt, meanwhile, has to be kicking themselves after gagging away two winnable games against Western Michigan and Miami. Win those and Pitt would be win-and-in against the Deacons this Saturday, but they'll have to settle for their first appearance in an NY6 bowl. Pickett outduels Hartman as the Panthers earn their first ACC championship. Pitt: 41--Wake: 31
Schweinfurth: Wake just hasn't looked the same since their first loss. It was almost as if they were figured out and everyone copied. The Deacons have been a great story so far, but Pitt pulls it out. Who saw that coming before the year started...Pitt: 38--Wake: 35

Seeberg:  In stark contrast to the contest below, this one will have...crap, what's it called?  Oh yeah...offense!  Other than the big SEC tilt, this will be the one to watch for entertainment value while you put up with your degenerate gambler cousin tell you he "almost" took that 4000:1 shot at the start of the season where Pitt and Wake Forest would wind up foes in the conference championship game.  Reminder, Wake scored 55 points in a LOSS this year.  Impressive in a less-than-positive way.  Can't imagine the Deacons will get enough stops against maybe the only offense in the conference more potent than their own.  Panthers in a fun one.  Pitt: 45--Wake: 37

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: A little real talk...my picks have been atrocious since midseason.  Sometimes, I've been unlucky, and sometimes, just dumb. Regardless, while I'm picking with my heart, most of my picks are against my desires.  Perhaps I'm hedging, perhaps just throwing darts, but I'm hoping most of these picks tank. That being said, the Wolverines defense (especially, Hutchinson) is the real deal.  The best description of Iowa was on twitter recently brought up by Bill Connelly....you seem to be in the game, then a quick turnover, you wake up, and realize the game is over.  Is there going to be a regression to the mean after the Wolverines got their big win? I don't think so.  Iowa is such a weird team, anything could happen....but I'm afraid doomsday may arrived.....I hate them.  Mich: 24--Iowa: 13

Hoying: *hurp* this is going to be a tough one. Harbaugh's *other* really good team, the one that came about an inch from an overtime win against Ohio State, suffered three losses. One was to the Buckeyes in the greatest edition of The Game ever. One was to #10 Florida State in the Orange Bowl on a last minute touchdown. And the third, was to Iowa. Not Playoff semifinalist Iowa. Not top 10 Iowa. Just regular, 8-5, standard Kirk Ferentz Iowa. Was it a trap game? I doubt it; the Wolverines played Maryland the week before and Indiana the week after. The Hawkeye defense simply swarmed the Wolverines, putting Speight out of his element and scoring a safety that exceeded the winning margin. And wouldn't you know it: that's exactly what the 2021 Hawkeyes have been doing, all the way from flummoxing Michael Penix in the opener to the tune of a 45% completion rate and 3 INTs, to doing much the same against Illini QB (and former Wolverine) Brandon Peters two weeks ago. (Don't ask about the Nebraska game, poor Nebraska has managed to be THE weird team in a weird year, although it's worth noting that the Hawkeyes beat the Huskers by a larger margin than Michigan did.) So, is there a reason to hope for a competitive matchup on Saturday in Indianapolis? Lol, are you serious? Maybe if Michigan doesn't get off the bus. You want to talk about defenses making QB's look uncomfortable? CJ Stroud was running for his life from Aidan Hutchinson on about every play that Treveyon didn't take the bullet for him. And you don't need to worry about the state of your passing game when you can put the team on Haskins and Corum's shoulders. Did you see what Wisconsin did to Iowa in October? This Saturday will be like that, but a million times worse. And yes, the Buckeyes would have done the same damn thing if they could have gone to Indianapolis this weekend instead. 2021 is the year of the weasel. Mich: 30--Iowa: 13

Schweinfurth: Did you watch the release in Ann Arbor last week? One gets the feeling that last week was the Wolverine's championship game. I've seen this story before, only a few hours south. The Game is such an emotional and physical drain, especially when you get a win for the first time in a decade. And they were still spouting off all week as if the Buckeyes were their opponent in the B1G Championship game. Iowa knows who they are and actually has a run defense to speak of. I...can't...pick...Harbaugh. This really feels like a let down game. Mich: 13--Iowa 16

Seeberg:  Won't be any surprises here.  We know what these two squads do and don't do.  It comes down to a few questions.  Can UM maintain last week's insanely high level?  No.  Is Iowa equipped to take advantage?  Not enough.  Am I lucky enough to see the Wolverines crash and burn after last week's dare-not-touch-the-sun performance?  To that I say HA...and no.  UM squeaks into the CFP *throws up in mouth*.  UM: 20--Iowa: 16