Friday, October 21, 2022

Week 8: Color Rush

Standings:

1.) Hoying 25-9 (3-4 upset)
2.) Draper 24-10 (0-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 23-11 (0-7 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 21-13 (2-5 upset)

The hits keep coming in this midseason of football. The Buckeyes continue to play garbage teams but across the landscapes are marquee games to decide who is the superior orange and the premier purple, and whether blue and gold can equal green.

Syracuse Orange @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Syracuse got the big win last week which was thought to answer the question 'Is Syracuse good?'  The problem was that NCState's QB was out and no one really believed in them that strongly. Now I'm comfortable saying that a win this week will answer the question in the positive.  With that in mind, I think the answer is still no.  Clemson isn't the world beater of the past, but they're quite good and easily the dominant force in the ACC.  The Orange can grab a strangle hold on the Atlantic here, but I don't see it in Death Valley.  The talent disparity is too great.  Also, how can you defeat the 'bus slowly driving around the stadium for no reason' entrance? ....chills.... Syr: 13--Clem: 27
Hoying: Color me surprised. Syracuse pulled out a great game last week against NC State. Yes, the Wolfpack have no offense (still better than another team in this week's previews) but the Orange were able to break through the brick wall that had been the NC State defense over the last few weeks. Now they'll have to do it again, against a team with  not only an even better defense but also the actual ability to move the ball. And in Death Valley. The Tigers, meanwhile, looked vulnerable for a bit last week and actually surrendered a fair bit of yardage to a resurgent Florida State, but they haven't really been challenged in the second half since their offensive awakening 2OT win over Wake Forest. It's smooth sailing back to Charlotte after the Tigers dispatch the Orange, with a nice cushy game against Notre Dame (sigh) to break up the monotony along the way. Syr: 20--Clem: 30
Schweinfurth: I'm honestly shocked Syracuse pulled that one off last week. Dino Babers' squad has been a major surprise, but they are about to face a different beast here. DJ has finally figured out how to be a serviceable QB and that's a scary thought with that defense. Clemson should win this fairly easy. Syr: 13--Clem: 35
Seeberg: Don't adjust your TVs for this one.  No, not just for the insane amount of orange, but the fact that BOTH teams still have a 0 in the loss column.  The 'Cuse handled NC State pretty easily last week, the likes of which we haven't seen since, well, Clemson dispatched them by 2 scores.  Jim Boeheim Dino Babers has things humming along nicely for the Orange, rewarding them for their patience in retaining the head coach now in his 7th(!) season there.  Unfortunately for Dino, Dabo does not have a short memory and the TIgers' upset loss to the Orange in 2017 likely still does not sit well.  The Clemson D is a notch below what it's been, but DJ has shown some signs of improvement and that should be enough to win this neon showdown.  Syr: 17--Clem: 31

California Los Angeles Bruins @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: UCLA has come out of (seemingly) nowhere to be the standard in the Pac12 this year.  Chip Kelly took a bit, but he seems to have the Bruins on an upward trajectory, but that's for the fan to decide.  Oregon has rebounded nicely after the week 1 drubbing to UGA, but can they keep the Pac12 train running.  DTR is one of the top QBs in efficiency this year, but I don't really see the explosion.  BoNix is a slot machine QB, but I do know that Autzen will be a madhouse.  This is a statement game for both teams as a win places UCLA as the standard bearer for the Pac12 in the playoff (maybe USC) and a loss puts Oregon into the 'please ignore week one' category.  This is about the time of year when the Pac12 graciously bows out of the playoff conversation, so it's time for the Ducks to shine.  UCLA: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: Welcome to the Chip Kelly bowl. And you can see the effects he has had on these programs: this is the first time in the history of these two schools that they have met as top 10 teams. That's no small feat in such a top-heavy year for rankings, either; we're well into late October and these teams have a combined one loss between them. UCLA keeps facing off against supposedly superior competition and feeding them a steady diet of DTR and Michigan castoff Zach Charbonnet on the way to convincing wins. Sure, the defense hasn't been quite up to snuff, but it's not like Oregon has held any FBS teams under 20 points this year, either. And they still have Bo Nix taking snaps for them. Other than their win over BYU, who, spoiler alert, might actually be pretty bad this year, the Ducks are most famous for having the doors blown off them by Georgia in the opener, on a day when they somehow turned 7 for 15 on third down and 2 for 3 on fourth into 3 points. Eugene is a tough, tough place to win, and UCLA's only road trip to date this year was at shambling blob Colorado, but the Bruins are just the more consistent team all around. UCLA: 41--Ore: 34
Schweinfurth: Oregon has looked very solid since losing to Georgia in week one. UCLA has good offense, but I'm not sure if they can get enough stops to win this. Should be a fun one to watch. UCLA: 35--Ore: 42
Seeberg: For seemingly the millionth week in a row, it's another "are these teams for real?" game out west.  UCLA found a QB and Chip Kelly has utilized DTR wonderfully to the point that a big game here could give him a Hooker-esque vault into Heisman contention.  Meanwhile, Bo Nix has remembered he's throwing to guys in green now (or pink, or whatever Phil Knight has the Ducks trotting out in this Saturday) and the Ducks have been excellent on offense since that bashing by UGA in week one.  It may not be the classic that Utah and USC provided last week, but there should be lots of points in a close contest.  I don't trust Bo Nix much, but I do trust Autzen Stadium enough to see the Ducks sneak out a W late.  UCLA: 38--Ore: 44

Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Draper: Can TCU keep getting away with this? Close win over upstart Kansas; OT win over an injured Oklahoma State team (with a sandwich drubbing of doormat OU) and the hits keep coming.  Quinten Johnson is a stud receiver and Duggan needs to continue to feed him for results.  I feel like the Cinderella Story needs to end sometime soon, but I'm not sure Adrian Martinez is the one to deal the blow.  Midnight hasn't struck yet as the magical TCU season rolls on.  KSU: 20--TCU: 30
Hoying: Ah, prime time on Fox Sports 1, just the place you'd expect to find what may be the decisive tilt in the battle for the regular season Big 12 championship. TCU's been living dangerously the past few weeks, needing a spectacular catch to get by Kansas and a furious rally and overtime heroics to best Oklahoma State, but that's part and parcel of facing a murderer's row, as Kansas State will be the fourth straight ranked opponent the Horned Frogs have faced (yes, I know Oklahoma and Kansas aren't ranked anymore, shhhhh). The Wildcats, on the other hand, seem to be more of a product of their schedule. A close win over Oklahoma isn't as impressive as it may have once been, and beating Iowa State by 1 isn't going to impress anyone, especially when you're scoring the same 10 points that earned you a loss at home  to Tulane (at least that's now a ranked loss, I suppose). TCU, in contrast, hasn't scored fewer than 38 points in a game all season (yes, I know they needed 2 OTs against Oklahoma State to get there, shhhhh), and which Kansas State's defense is good, they aren't going to be able to slow the Frogs down enough for the anemic Wildcat offense to keep up. Hmmm...will we see any other games like that this weekend? KSU: 17--TCU: 30
Schweinfurth: This one comes down to the fact that TCU is just better. They also have a shirt with Hypnotoad. All hail Hypnotoad. KSU: 14--TCU: 33
Seeberg: Violet, you're turning violet, Violet!  Still better than that purple and red combination the Horned Frogs sported last weekend in a double-OT escape against the Cowboys.  Regardless, TCU is a far cry from the Gary Patterson days of tough D and decent offense.  It's full-on Big XII scoring now!  Kansas State, meanwhile has exactly 0 marquee wins after the Sooners have proved to be a dumpster fire.  TCU outscored a couple of other excellent offenses in the Jayhawks and Cowboys, and the Wildcats' offense is...less-than-excellent.  Frogs hop away late.  TCU: 34--KSU: 16

Iowa Hawkeyes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: OSU circled this as one of the 5 marquee games on this year's slate...unfortunately, 3 of the 5 (maybe 4????) have turned out to be real duds.  This matchup is a true rarity of the nation's #1 offense vs. the nations #130 offense.  For those counting at home, that's the best and worst of ALL teams.  Yeah, Iowa sports a decent defense, but don't focus on the limited yards per game they've surrendered.  Considering the offenses they were facing, the defense is fine, but nothing that should scare the Bucks.  Stroud needs to lead a bit of a clinic to remind the Heisman voters than Hendon Hooker isn't the chosen one.  Since the schedule never picks up until TTUN, CJ needs to keep dismantling everyone from start to finish as he's been doing.  Throw in a dose of Williams or Henderson with a touch of Biletnikoff frontrunner and stud receivers and this should get ugly fast.  Maybe we'll even see the supposed #1 WR in the country this week (but I don't think we will or it would matter). The goal here is for the defense to continue the growth and shut down the ineptitude on the black and gold sideline.  Heck, we even have a better punter than the kings of the punt!  Bucks by a million.   Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Iowa: 9--OSU:45
Hoying: Faithful readers, I have good news and bad news. And they're the same: Ohio State's schedule is bad. Really bad. Yes, there's one mountainous roadblock at the end, but if you watched that roadblock play last week, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the supposed other good opponent remaining for the Buckeyes are a bunch of chumps. But enough about next week; let's focus on the chumps at hand. Iowa cannot score. I would say "the end" here, but the last time I wrote a preview like that was for the 2020 Big Ten Championship, and while Northwestern didn't do anything on offense that game, they were able to frustrate the Buckeye O for the better part of 3 quarters until Ryan Day got it through his head to run the damn ball. Now, 2022 Iowa is much, much worse than 2020 Northwestern, but they still do have some weapons on defense Ohio State will have to account for. The problem for the Hawkeyes is that Kevin Wilson has had two weeks to account for these problems. The Buckeyes are not going to be caught napping, especially when Ryan Day still carries the scars of 2017's debacle close to the windbreaker. The Buckeyes should have more healthy options on offense during this game than any other this season, including the opener, and they're going to put on a clinic for how to pick apart an elite-level defense. Just don't turn the ball over 5 times and don't get too stubborn with the play calling and this one should be easy, m'kay. Iowa: 3--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Iowa's defense has shown to be their best offense this year. I don't know what that says about the Hawkeye's offense other than, it's bad. That defense will get some stops. They are good enough to keep the Bucks under 40. JSN should be back this week. Just in time to give other d coordinators more heartburn. Ryan Day brought up the scars of the last time these two teams played. There's no overlooking this one. Bucks win. Iowa: 3--OSU: 35
Seeberg: Honestly, I truly wish I had the guts to predict a shutout here.  Iowa has literally, no exaggeration, the worst offense in the FBS.  131st out of 131 teams.  It's laughable.  Unfortunately, Ryan Day is a nice guy to the point that Ohio State has actually only covered the spread in half of its games this season.  The spread this week is 30.  THIRTY!  Against a top 10 defense!  That's how pitiful the Hawkeye offense is.  Five years since the baffling demolition in Kinnick- in Day's first year as OC- and Ryan still wants to make amends.  I hope the late TD I'm predicting doesn't come to fruition, but I suspect it will.  Stay healthy (fingers crossed), stay disciplined on D, and cruise to a W.  Iowa: 10--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: UT-Martin over Tennessee 
Hoying: Memphis over Tulane
Schweinfurth: Minnesota over Penn State
Seeberg:  Mississippi State over Alabama (some men just want to watch the world burn)

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