Standings:
1.) Draper 49-14 (1-11 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 48-15 (2-10 upset)
3.) Hoying 44-19 (2-10 upset)
4.) Seeberg 43-20 (4-8 upset)
Twilight of the 4-team Playoff decade is upon us, and
soon night will fall. For the 10th straight year, the Buckeyes enter
Championship Week anxiously awaiting a few games to break their way (except
you, 2019, we love you). Last year provided some atonement for getting jobbed
in 2017 and 2018; can lightning strike twice? The path is a little rockier than
in years past, with Texas, Alabama, and Florida State needing to be cast aside,
but hope endures, at least until Saturday morning in Jerry World.
FRIDAY
Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
Draper: I'll be honest, I've been thinking about going off book and picking Washington all week. Oregon is expecting to just steamroll the Huskies, but Rome Odunze and Michael Penix have a connection. However, BoNix and company have been destroying everyone in their path after the somewhat fluky loss in Seattle. I expect this to be closer than everyone thinks, but the mo wears green and yellow. The Huskies have been '02 Buckeyes, white-knuckling every week. They can't keep getting away with it. Ducks to the playoff. UW: 24--Ore: 27
Hoying: What if…neither of these teams is actually that good? Washington beat Boise State (uncharacteristic 7-5) and Michigan State (horrible) out of conference, and Oregon beat 6-6 Texas Tech by 8 points. The same Texas Tech that got obliterated by 50 by Texas just one week ago. Come to think of it, did *any* Pac-12 team have a meaningful non-conference win this year? Regardless, this one should be entertaining as the top two passing offenses (but not the top two QBs, we see you, Jayden Daniels) face off (again). Washington has looked off ever since dispatching the Ducks midseason. You say they were playing ranked teams weak in and week out; I say those teams all finished 8-4 or 7-5 (at best). The eye test has been much friendlier to the Ducks. I haven’t learned my lesson from last time; I thought Oregon was the better team before it was cool, and now that the game’s away from Seattle, Oregon should be able to avoid the 4th-down voodoo that jinxed them back in October. Ducks hunt. UW: 24—Ore: 38
Schweinfurth: One of these teams is trending up, the other has been in a malaise for November. Not sure it's competition level or QB play, but Washington has looked very beatable lately. I don't see a blowout here (which means the winner will win by 20). This will come down to which team makes the big mistake. Penix has been good, not great. BoNix has been Bo Nix. That will be the difference. UW: 28--Ore: 31
Hoying: What if…neither of these teams is actually that good? Washington beat Boise State (uncharacteristic 7-5) and Michigan State (horrible) out of conference, and Oregon beat 6-6 Texas Tech by 8 points. The same Texas Tech that got obliterated by 50 by Texas just one week ago. Come to think of it, did *any* Pac-12 team have a meaningful non-conference win this year? Regardless, this one should be entertaining as the top two passing offenses (but not the top two QBs, we see you, Jayden Daniels) face off (again). Washington has looked off ever since dispatching the Ducks midseason. You say they were playing ranked teams weak in and week out; I say those teams all finished 8-4 or 7-5 (at best). The eye test has been much friendlier to the Ducks. I haven’t learned my lesson from last time; I thought Oregon was the better team before it was cool, and now that the game’s away from Seattle, Oregon should be able to avoid the 4th-down voodoo that jinxed them back in October. Ducks hunt. UW: 24—Ore: 38
Schweinfurth: One of these teams is trending up, the other has been in a malaise for November. Not sure it's competition level or QB play, but Washington has looked very beatable lately. I don't see a blowout here (which means the winner will win by 20). This will come down to which team makes the big mistake. Penix has been good, not great. BoNix has been Bo Nix. That will be the difference. UW: 28--Ore: 31
Seeberg: We all know the adage "it's tough to beat a good team twice". Well UW is definitely a good team; however, they're also fortunate. In fact, they're number one in a luck index this season. Last season's winner? TCU. We saw what happened to them against Georgia. This also could be for the Heisman. Oregon darn near won on the road earlier, and have improved much more than their opponent. Ducks make the first and last CFP field. UW: 24--Ore: 34
SATURDAY
Big 12: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: While I'd love to support the Pokes, I just don't see it. The Pokes have been incredibly confusing all year. Lose to South Alabama, beat Oklahoma. Go down big against garbage yet rise from the ashes with Ollie Gordon inexplicably getting them back into it. It's Texas against a weird team...anything could happen...but I have a feeling we may need to say the line...Texas is <sigh> back.... OkSt: 17--UT: 30
Hoying: What is this Oklahoma State team? First they knock Oklahoma out of the Big 12 Championship Game to set up a nice cushy November against three of the Big 12’s awful 2023 expansion teams. And then they get blown out by UCF, spot Houston a 14 point 2nd-quarter lead, and fall behind BYU 24-6 at half before pulling out a spectacular overtime comeback. The Cowboys have only scored 34 more total points than their opponents over the whole season. The team on the other sideline has had their share of clunkers as well but are a last-minute Oklahoma drive from being undefeated with a double digit road win against Alabama. And that's Alabama Alabama, not South Alabama, who manhandled the Pokes back in September to the tune of 33-7. Texas has been its own worst enemy since Colt McCoy left town, but the gap between these two is too deep to fall into. The dominoes fall one short for the Buckeyes this year. OkSt: 20—UT: 31
Schweinfurth: OSU helping out tOSU would be very nice. I really don't see this happening. Texas just comes off as the more well rounded team here. OkSt. 17--UT: 35
Hoying: What is this Oklahoma State team? First they knock Oklahoma out of the Big 12 Championship Game to set up a nice cushy November against three of the Big 12’s awful 2023 expansion teams. And then they get blown out by UCF, spot Houston a 14 point 2nd-quarter lead, and fall behind BYU 24-6 at half before pulling out a spectacular overtime comeback. The Cowboys have only scored 34 more total points than their opponents over the whole season. The team on the other sideline has had their share of clunkers as well but are a last-minute Oklahoma drive from being undefeated with a double digit road win against Alabama. And that's Alabama Alabama, not South Alabama, who manhandled the Pokes back in September to the tune of 33-7. Texas has been its own worst enemy since Colt McCoy left town, but the gap between these two is too deep to fall into. The dominoes fall one short for the Buckeyes this year. OkSt: 20—UT: 31
Schweinfurth: OSU helping out tOSU would be very nice. I really don't see this happening. Texas just comes off as the more well rounded team here. OkSt. 17--UT: 35
Seeberg: This game absolutely must be won by the plains OSU for the Buckeyes to have a shot. Sadly, the Cowboys needed OT just to squeak by BYU last week. The Longhorns have been pretty workman-like most of the season, even with a backup QB for a stretch of the season. They fired on all cylinders last week, however, and I expect more of the same. Longhorns big. OkSt: 20--UT: 38
SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome. UGA has been workmanlike all year, but I've never been wowed. Perhaps it's because they have played no one that I care to watch. Bama seems to be coming on strong, but they BARELY beat a bad Auburn team last week. Jalen Milroe is the X-factor running the ball as the Dawgs have a little trouble stopping the QB. While Bama is very inconsistent at times, they are intensely talented...but UGA is also insanely talented...and consistent. UGA continues the quest for a threepeat. Bama: 20--UGA: 30
Hoying: For the second week in a row, we get to see if a team with elite talent that looked rocky early this season but has been steadily improving can take down the team that’s been at the top of their game all year. This season, I have picked Alabama to lose to (i) Ole Miss, (ii) Texas A&M, and (iii) LSU. Guess how many times I’ve been right. I should have picked them to lose last week, as somehow they managed to turn a horrible performance by Auburn QB Peyton Thorne (Go Green) into a certain Tiger win before the Auburn defense practically delivered the Foy-ODK Trophy to the Tide on their last play. Yes, we saw this exact same script in 2021, and it continued with an Alabama SEC Championship over the Dawgs, but that was 2021 Alabama, with Heisman winner Bryce Young at QB. Sure, Georgia doesn’t appear to be quite as good as their last two National Champ iterations but they haven’t taken as big a step back as Alabama. Get used to seeing both of these teams in the Playoff every year for the foreseeable future, just not this year. UGA: 27—Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama has found something in Milroe, but it feels as if the torch has been passed the Georgia. Here's to another number 1 seed Bulldogs. UGA: 35--Bama: 21
Hoying: For the second week in a row, we get to see if a team with elite talent that looked rocky early this season but has been steadily improving can take down the team that’s been at the top of their game all year. This season, I have picked Alabama to lose to (i) Ole Miss, (ii) Texas A&M, and (iii) LSU. Guess how many times I’ve been right. I should have picked them to lose last week, as somehow they managed to turn a horrible performance by Auburn QB Peyton Thorne (Go Green) into a certain Tiger win before the Auburn defense practically delivered the Foy-ODK Trophy to the Tide on their last play. Yes, we saw this exact same script in 2021, and it continued with an Alabama SEC Championship over the Dawgs, but that was 2021 Alabama, with Heisman winner Bryce Young at QB. Sure, Georgia doesn’t appear to be quite as good as their last two National Champ iterations but they haven’t taken as big a step back as Alabama. Get used to seeing both of these teams in the Playoff every year for the foreseeable future, just not this year. UGA: 27—Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama has found something in Milroe, but it feels as if the torch has been passed the Georgia. Here's to another number 1 seed Bulldogs. UGA: 35--Bama: 21
Seeberg: Note the extreme lack of surprise at this matchup. A Georgia fan constructed a pretty reasonable Kirby Smart-Ryan Day comparison that I read recently. Hoping Day breaks through in a similar fashion sooner rather than later- though Kirby doesn't have an ascendant archrival to deal with. In any case, Bama may have looked past the Iron Bowl to this one and it should have cost them. I still think UGA is more complete, however, and should make it a 2-score win late. Bama: 24--UGA: 33
ACC: Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Another toss-up game. While I don't see a Travis-less FSU team competing in the playoffs against more talented teams, they can absolutely beat the Cardinals. Louisville had the highest of highs against the Irish, but losing to the Wildcats in a rivalry game makes no sense. While FSU doesn't have the QB to compete at the top level, their top to bottom talent is easily better than Louisville's A-team. The Noles got the yips out in the first half against the Gators while Rodemaker was figuring it out. Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, and Trey Benson get it done on offense while Jared Verse wreaks havoc on defense. Noles head to the playoff. UL: 17--FSU: 27
Hoying: Every year in the Playoff it seems like there’s one team that has no business being there, not because they didn’t take care of business in the regular season, but just because they aren’t very good. But this season, I worry that there might be two (hello, 2018). As I said before, I don’t have any faith in the Pac-12 champion, but Florida State has been similarly unimpressive this season. Beating LSU in the opener was a terrific opening act, but I’m afraid the Noles peaked too early, and losing Jordan Travis is a death blow to a team that has already skated by far too many mediocre opponents. The Cardinals don’t have the high highs of FSU when they’re clicking, but they’re generally pretty steady when they’re not taking off the second half against Pitt (hey, it worked against Indiana). I just don’t see Rowengartner making enough plays to win this one for Florida State. He’s got good support around him on both sides of the ball, but Travis has been too big a part of the Seminoles’ big wins this year. The Noles make the Committee’s job an easy one this year. Good luck splitting hairs between the #11 and #12 team next year (don’t forget the joker G5 team to round out the #12 seed). UL: 20—FSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Florida State is depleted. They might be calling up Draper to play QB at this point. Louisville has looked excellent under Brahm this year. The 'Noles' defense is enough to keep it close, but the Cardinals are setting up an Orange Bowl date with the Bucks. UL: 24--FSU: 21
Hoying: Every year in the Playoff it seems like there’s one team that has no business being there, not because they didn’t take care of business in the regular season, but just because they aren’t very good. But this season, I worry that there might be two (hello, 2018). As I said before, I don’t have any faith in the Pac-12 champion, but Florida State has been similarly unimpressive this season. Beating LSU in the opener was a terrific opening act, but I’m afraid the Noles peaked too early, and losing Jordan Travis is a death blow to a team that has already skated by far too many mediocre opponents. The Cardinals don’t have the high highs of FSU when they’re clicking, but they’re generally pretty steady when they’re not taking off the second half against Pitt (hey, it worked against Indiana). I just don’t see Rowengartner making enough plays to win this one for Florida State. He’s got good support around him on both sides of the ball, but Travis has been too big a part of the Seminoles’ big wins this year. The Noles make the Committee’s job an easy one this year. Good luck splitting hairs between the #11 and #12 team next year (don’t forget the joker G5 team to round out the #12 seed). UL: 20—FSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Florida State is depleted. They might be calling up Draper to play QB at this point. Louisville has looked excellent under Brahm this year. The 'Noles' defense is enough to keep it close, but the Cardinals are setting up an Orange Bowl date with the Bucks. UL: 24--FSU: 21
Seeberg: From the completely predictable to the...Louisville Cardinals? Thankfully they are no longer a threat to make the playoff after their in-state loss last week. Are they better than FSU with a backup under center (or, let's face it, in the shotgun these days)? Honestly it's probably a coin flip. Any team that can lose to Pitt, however, shouldn't beat this Seminole team. You're welcome, Chief- at least your two teams won't play in the playoffs a la Rieman's OSU/Xavier basketball matchup in 2007 right? UL: 20--FSU: 27
Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: I just don't care. As long as they lose, in the playoffs, the season isn't a complete disaster. On the other hand, Brian Ferentz has the chance to do the funniest thing possible (but he won't). Analysis: Michigan is way better. UM: 38-Iowa: 9
Hoying: I have good news and bad news. First, the bad news. Michigan is going to gouge out Iowa’s Hawkeyes and leave them in bloody chunks on the Lucas Oil field. Like what Penn State did to them, except with a quarterback who can throw under pressure (as you likely remember from last week). The over/under for points scored by Iowa currently sits at ONE-HALF OF A POINT for each half, and that's not going to get the job done as the Wolverines have yet to be shut out in the Harbaugh era. The good news is that, 5 years from now, this will go down as either an Iowa championship or a vacant title. The Michigan commentariat, which have uniformly been the most unrepentantly insufferable creeps this side of political punditry, seem to think that last week’s Game proves that there was nothing to the cheating scandal, and the national media have been only too happy to excuse themselves and move on to Michigan’s future fortunes this postseason. But I don’t think that going from a better Ohio State team losing at home by multiple scores to a worse Michigan team last year, to a worse Ohio State team losing on the road on a last-minute interception to a better Michigan team this year, proves what the True Blue Kool-Aid Men think it does. In case anyone has forgotten, the Wolverines fired Connor Stalions and an assistant coach this past month, and their Cheater-in-Chief has been watching the last three contests from outside the stadium walls. Seeing his smug mug back on the sidelines in Indianapolis will be more than I can bear this Saturday night, but it won’t be for long. Enjoy your soon-to-be smoking crater. UM: 31—Iowa: 0
Schweinfurth: I am living in hell. Michigan's coaching staff are still cheaters. Enough said. scUM: 35--Iowa: 0
Hoying: I have good news and bad news. First, the bad news. Michigan is going to gouge out Iowa’s Hawkeyes and leave them in bloody chunks on the Lucas Oil field. Like what Penn State did to them, except with a quarterback who can throw under pressure (as you likely remember from last week). The over/under for points scored by Iowa currently sits at ONE-HALF OF A POINT for each half, and that's not going to get the job done as the Wolverines have yet to be shut out in the Harbaugh era. The good news is that, 5 years from now, this will go down as either an Iowa championship or a vacant title. The Michigan commentariat, which have uniformly been the most unrepentantly insufferable creeps this side of political punditry, seem to think that last week’s Game proves that there was nothing to the cheating scandal, and the national media have been only too happy to excuse themselves and move on to Michigan’s future fortunes this postseason. But I don’t think that going from a better Ohio State team losing at home by multiple scores to a worse Michigan team last year, to a worse Ohio State team losing on the road on a last-minute interception to a better Michigan team this year, proves what the True Blue Kool-Aid Men think it does. In case anyone has forgotten, the Wolverines fired Connor Stalions and an assistant coach this past month, and their Cheater-in-Chief has been watching the last three contests from outside the stadium walls. Seeing his smug mug back on the sidelines in Indianapolis will be more than I can bear this Saturday night, but it won’t be for long. Enjoy your soon-to-be smoking crater. UM: 31—Iowa: 0
Schweinfurth: I am living in hell. Michigan's coaching staff are still cheaters. Enough said. scUM: 35--Iowa: 0
Seeberg: Woof. I refuse to offer any real commentary here. The only amusing part of this contest is that Iowa's defense will outscore Iowa's offense. Ugh. UM: 27--Iowa: 2
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