Week 11: Train Wreck

Standings:

1.) Hoying 27-12 (3-7 upset)
2.) Seeberg 26-13 (2-8 upset)
2.) Draper 26-13 (1-9 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 26-13 (1-9 upset)

After a nasty three game stretch decided by a total of twelve points, the Buckeyes can settle into what should be a couple of breathers before the long final run. Meanwhile, Bama-LSU, which defined the fortunes of the SEC for so long, risks taking undercard status within its own conference as Georgia faces another tough road environment.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This is a sneaky game in the Grove.  I'm really tempted to look to Kiffin for an upset of a susceptible Georgia team.  Carson Beck is just not the guy that he was expected to be.  The main concern is that Ole Miss's schedule has been Charmin soft in the SEC with big games against LSU (loss....but it was close) and South Carolina (who they blew out) whereas UGA has been battle tested vs Clemson, Bama, and Texas.  While I am convinced that the Dawgs are the better team, their schedule is just a murderer's row.  Eventually, it will catch up to them....and why not now.  I'll throw a little chum in the water as the LandSharks (is that still a thing?) and Jaxson Dart sneak out a huge win to stay playoff viable (for now).  UGA: 24--Miss: 27

Hoying: Over the latter half of the Kirby Smart era, Georgia has been charting a course of sleepwalking through its easy games before kicking it into high gear when the lights are shining brightest (unless they're playing Bama). But this year, the Dawgs might just not be as good as advertised. Outside of the second half against Bama and the first half against Texas, their performances don't really scream "national championship contender." Despite stealing Travis Etienne's little brother away from Florida, Georgia can't really run the ball, and the defense has only been OK. And the once steady Carson Beck has turned into a turnover machine, coughing up 11 INTs over his last 5 games. The window is open for a big upset. But I'm not sure the Rebels are capable of climbing through. Yes, Ole Miss seems to have a workable defense for the first time since Lane made his way to Oxford. Yes, Jaxson Dart is slinging the rock as well as anyone nationwide. But this team crumbles under pressure. They've been in two close games this season and lost both after blowing late leads. And they still have just one win over a 10-win SEC team in the 5-year Kiffin era. Ole Miss is good enough to win this game, and Georgia is more vulnerable to non-Bama teams than at any point since 2020, but I just can't buy into the Rebels closing the deal. UGA: 27--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss is ranked, but meh. This seems to be an annual thing for KIffin at this point. Get at top 10 rank and then poop the bed. I can't see the Rebels winning here, but this year has also been crazy. UGA: 35--Miss: 14
Seeberg:  I get it, it’s a ranked matchup. Looks important on paper. But Kiffin has been nothing short of disastrous against top 10 opponents at Ole Miss. Speaking of disaster, how’s 8 picks in 3 games from a preseason Heisman front runner sound? Carson Beck has been meh at best, but there’s just too much talent around him to fail against this opponent. Dawgs pull away late. UGA: 31-–Miss: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State University Tigers

Draper: We hear every year about the greatness of the Bama LSU matchup but the Tigahs have won a grand total of 2 of the last 12 matchups (2022 and Joe Burrow).  While Bama has certainly looked different under DeBoer (and not in a good way, they still have the insane athleticism that has kept Bama on top.  Weird things happen in Baton Rouge, but I'm not thinking that Garrett Nussmeier is that dude to pull the upset.  Look for the changing colors of Brian Kelly as he looks for a player to scapegoat and blame for another loss.  Bama: 31--LSU: 20

Hoying: Speaking of teams that can't run the ball, how about your 2024 LSU Tigers? Sure, trading in dual-threat all-Heisman all-NFL QB Jayden Daniels for the more McCordian Garrett Nussmeier will have a great deal to do with that, but what happened to the school of Leonard Fournette, Jacob Hester, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire? You'd be forgiven for thinking that the late Mike Leach coached the Tigers rather than the Bulldogs (what's with the duplicate mascots in the SEC?) as LSU has the fourth fewest rushing attempts of any FBS team. And that suits Bama just fine, as they've been more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. LSU, by contrast, is generally easier to attack with the forward pass, but the last time we saw them, they were getting gashed on the ground by Texas A&M's backup QB, Marcel Reed. Calling Reed a dual-threat QB might be a bit generous, as he really didn't (and can't) throw the ball all that much in the Aggies' comeback win, but the Tigers showed a potential weakness against QBs who can run, and...ohhhh...nooooooo. You may remember that even with Jayden Daniels, LSU lost to Bama last year by multiple scores because Jaylen Milroe was able to go hog wild any way he wanted against the Tiger D, and I don't see any reason why this year should be any different with how these teams have played so far. Bama: 34--LSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Brian Kelly may have his team rolling here, but it's still a Brian Kelly team. I have no trust in that coaching staff to figure our Bama's attack. I've got the tide here. Bama: 31--LSU: 17
Seeberg:  Let’s be real folks, this is as gettable as Bama has been in quite awhile. They could probably use a good center and a safety. Weird. Regardless, Brian Kelly’s rear end may start getting warm if he can’t win this one, this year, particularly at home. Still, the best player on the field will be slinging it wearing Crimson, and that’s good enough for me. Bama tames the live(!!) tiger. Bama: 27-LSU: 20

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: South Carolina has been slowly moving their way back into the discussion and blasted through the door last week in a crazy upset in Columbia.  That being said, Vandy is experiencing their best year since...ever? Diego Pavia has been a revelation for the Commodores, but his recent lawsuit against the NCAA is a little bit strange.  I think the Gamecocks are going to ride the wave of the last game over A&M (who they demolished) to a big road win over Vandy (man that feels weird to type).  SC: 31--Vandy: 27

Hoying: Chances are, examining Vanderbilt's schedule before the start of the season, you would not have penciled them in for a bowl bid, with games against Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Missouri, and Virginia Tech on the schedule. And yet, here we are, with the Dores clinching bowl eligibility three games ahead of season's end. And this week, they face the other surprise success story in the SEC, South Carolina. The Cocks have faced their own murderer's row, with Missouri and Clemson still on the schedule, but are a win over Wofford away from a bowl berth of their own. How are these third tier erstwhile SEC East squads getting it done? For Vanderbilt, everything flows through transfer QB and borderline psychopath Diego Pavia, who shredded the Tide earlier this year and just last week completed a trifecta of victories over Hugh Freeze in three different matchups. And as it turns out, this unstoppable force will come into direct conflict with the immovable object that is the Gamecock pass defense. The problem is that, in evaluating SC against the SEC, their pass defense has flexed its muscles the last two weeks against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, two teams that can't throw the ball, and came up short against Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, three teams that can. Carolina doesn't have the horses to keep up with Vandy, and their defense is going to be exposed  by a competent attack. SC: 20--Vandy: 23

Schweinfurth: All hail Chaos Master Diego Pavia. This dude is just fun, and somewhat infuriating to watch. Gonna get sacked 15 yards behind the line? Nope, random side arm pass for a TD. So many completed passes falling backwards. It's truly amazing. This is a Cinderella story for Vandy this year and it should continue this week. SC probably sees a bit of a let down after that massive win last week. SC: 21--Vandy: 24
Seeberg:  Ugh, another SEC game? Fine. It’s actually a moderately intriguing matchup. The Gamecocks D-line is legit, but Pavia is elusive. Maintaining rush lane discipline will be critical. At home, I just don’t see Vandy losing this one. Did I just type that?? Apocalypse here we come, Pavia wins it, again, late. SC: 23–Vandy: 27

Purdue Boilermakers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: While Buckeye Nation sees the name of Purdue and visions of stupid upsets dance in their heads, I just don't see a world in which this is close.  Purdue is absolutely atrocious.  So much so that they are saving my beloved Seminoles from being the lowest rated Power 5 team (by one spot....no you shut up!).  They had their one chance at glory this year against Illinois but couldn't seal the deal.  The Buckeyes have belief and faith that we're back on track after last week.  The biggest positive was a gelling of the rebuilt O-line.  Hinzman stepped in wonderfully and the whole line anchored by the criminally underrated center (McLaughlin) was very good.  Purdue (unlike PSU or Nebraska) doesn't have a great defensive pass rush (or run stuffer, or quarterback, or receiver, or running back....you get the point).  Buckeyes play a little sleepy early, but the talent differential is bonkers. I expect a big game from the running back duo and Jeremiah Smith to get back into the endzone as we mark time until...Indiana???? PU: 3--OSU: 45
Hoying: Well, they say the sky's the limit. And to me, that's really true. But, my friends, you have seen nothing. Just wait 'til the Bucks get through. Because Purdue is bad. Really, really, bad. Shamone. After putting the screws to Penn State in crunch time last week, the sky is once more the limit for the Buckeyes, as they are once again the betting favorites to win the national championship. I don't expect to learn anything about Ohio State this week, or next week for that matter. After seeing the masterclass that Chip put on against the Nittany Lions, I'm more convinced than ever that the bizarre playcalling against Nebraska was pure kabuki theater for Penn State's benefit, engineered not to give them anything useful on film to prepare for. I suppose that now the cat's out of the bag, we might get into the crazy plays over the next couple weeks, just to make Indiana and Michigan chase phantoms for a quarter or two while Chip gives them the business again. Then again, we can probably just do whatever we want. Feel like running Smash and Dash (Thunder and Lightning? Sonic and Knuckles?) a few times in a row? Purdue is a ghastly 129th in EPA per rush allowed. Want to give Smith and Egbuka the opportunity to move up the all-time freshman and all-time all-time stat rankings? 12st in EPA per dropback. Oh, and the Purdue offense is horrible, too. Look for Bryson Rodgers, Jayden Ballard, Jelani Thurman, James Peoples, and the whole Hee Haw gang to get involved in the action this week as this one should be a laugher by the start of the second quarter. Boiler down. Meltdown. PU: 0--OSU: 49
Schweinfurth: Ohio State is ranked #2 and here come the Boilermakers...excuse me while I go puke out my nervousness. Good news, this Purdue team is HORRRID. Seriously. This should be a get healthy/get right game this week. It comes at a great time after two very difficult, very physical games. The last drive of the Penn State game is something to build on. I really hope this is a game where the starters are out by the 4th quarter. It's needed. Load management in this game is critical for the rest of the season. Get a big lead early and get the starters out. Bucks big! Pur: 6--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Thankfully, for myriad reasons, this is not your 2018 Boilermakers. 131st in total offense. May take them a month to score 49 points. This will be a big noon yawner. James Franklin pooped the bed (and being spotted a 2-score lead), so perhaps some things are eternal. Whether the offensive line’s improvement will stand the test of time begins this week. Carson Hinzman is out of witness protection and Chip ran it straight through the heart of the Lions for the last 5 minutes and change. If I had an OSU mancave that drive would have been on the big screen on repeat all week. Start fast, stay healthy, and then it’s on to Wrigley where I get to cross off my 4th conference road trip to see a game! (Not gonna make it to all of them now, conference is a tad more spread out).  OSU: 45-Pur: 3

Upset Special
Draper: TTUN over Indiana
Hoying: North Texas over Army
Schweinfurth: Washington over Penn St
Seeberg: UVA over Pitt

Week 10: Don't! Get! Eliminated!

Standings:

1.) Hoying 25-12 (2-7 upset)
2.) Seeberg 24-13 (2-7 upset)
2.) Draper 24-13 (1-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 24-13 (1-8 upset)

After a sleepy first half of the season, the hits keep coming for the Buckeyes, as they'll (hopefully) never go three weeks without facing a top championship contender for the rest of the season. Phase two of the gauntlet is good old not-our-rivals in one of the most intimidating home environments in college football. Let's go.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Southern Methodist Mustangs

Draper: While neither of these teams is particularly exciting on the national stage, they're both undefeated and have real tracks to a CFP berth in the highly suspect ACC.  Their schedules have been and will remain mostly garbage (outside of BYU for SMU and Clemson for Pitt).  No one really gives credence to these resumes, but the records are quite good.  Pitt has mostly limped to the undefeated record (outside of blowing out Syracuse on the back of 3 Kyle McCord TDs (to the wrong team) while the Mustangs have dominated outside of a close loss to BYU and an inexplicable squeaker at Duke (losing the turnover battle 5-0 is never great).  I don't REALLY care about either of these teams, but someone's gotta take an inside track in the ACC.  I'm going with SMU to keep it rolling and potentially lead to a wild ACC tiebreaker at season's end.  I just don't see Pitt remaining undefeated. Pitt: 20--SMU:27

Hoying: Ah yes, that ACC rivalry renewed: Pitt vs. SMU! Both of these teams have had similar season trajectories, winning by an average score of about 40-20 and remaining unbeaten in conference play so far. The only difference is that Pitt got to play West Virginia as their Big XII nonconference opponent and SMU got tripped up by BYU. Both have relatively balanced offenses, including mobile quarterbacks. You could even say that both teams were fortunate in their last outings, with Pitt being gifted with 3 pick-sixes (picks-six?) against Syracuse and SMU blocking a field goal and stopping an overtime 2-point conversion after throwing three picks of their own against Duke. Anyway, you'll need some good luck of your own finding an edge for either team in this one. You could potentially be troubled by SMU's 19 fumbles on the season, but they've forced 14 in return to balance things out. I'll go with the more battle tested Mustangs, who have a road win at ranked Louisville to counter their loss to the current Big XII leader. Pitt: 27--SMU: 30 
Schweinfurth: When is the last time these two were relevant? Pre death sentence SMU and maybe 95 Pitt? Either way, these two are both in the mix in the ACC. Both teams can put up some points too. Granted Pitt ran away from the 'Cuse as Kyle McCord just threw another pick. Both team seem to be rolling into this game as well. I'll say this one is a shoot out. Pitt's not playing McCord this week so SMU wins. Pitt: 35--SMU:38
Seeberg:  After a season of great games, a lot of the top 25 is off this week, leaving us with the OSU PSU banger and...this one?  Remarkably, just one loss between these two.  Pitt has the lowest ranking for an undefeated power however-many team at this stage in the season since the inception of the AP poll in 1936.  Both squads are playing like it's the 80s, when Pitt had Dan Marino and SMU had an ancient (and illegal) forerunner of NIL.  I don't know if either of these teams is actually good, but I do know they're both good enough to beat that sham of a team in Miami if it comes to a conference title tilt (Clemson is still the favorite in my humble opinion).  Regardless, both of these teams need this one to stay on track for that possibility.  One thing I do know is that Pitt is unlikely to benefit from FIVE interceptions again this week (and three pick sixes!).  Giddy up, the Mustangs are back.  Pitt: 24--SMU: 31

The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The game behind The Game.  Everyone keeps talking about Ryan Day's record in top matchups, but we don't talk about his dominance of everyone else...including the Nittany Lions.  While some real blemishes popped up last week, I choose to believe that was a combination of 1. bad game (can't ignore that), 2. holding something back in the scheme (worst game Chip has called), 3. simple look ahead, and 4. breaking in a new Oline.  Whether that's true or not, I'm hopeful as this team was sloppy at best last week and didn't look themselves.  Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, and TTUN have stout defensive fronts that we absolutely need to be better against (and I think we will) but the line must eliminate the stupid mistakes they showed against the Huskers.  On the other side of the ball, I'm happy with the defensive maturation last week and some more creative playcalls to get lines at the QB.  I anticipate Allar will be out, but regardless, the Buckeye defense needs to be as good or better than they were next week, while the offense needs to return to form.  The running game was pedestrian to bad last week and it won't get it done here.  I expect the playbook to completely open up in Happy Valley with QB runs, clean misdirection, and more downfield passing (with max protect).  It won't be easy, but nothing easy is worth it. This is a game for this team to look in the mirror and think about how they want to be remembered...champions or one of the biggest flops of returning talent.  This is the first game on the new path to greatness and the Bucks step up to the challenge.  Will Howard will make some crucial short yardage plays, Egbuka and Judkins will keep the chains moving while Henderson and Smith provide the fireworks, and the defense steps up BIG forcing 4+ sacks and a key turnover.  OSU: 24--PSU: 20
Hoying: I'll say it again. The ledge. Come off of it. Yes, last week wasn't the "get right" game we were hoping for after we died of dysentery on the Oregon trail. At least not on the offensive side of the ball. But the narrative coming off of the loss to the Ducks was that the Bucks needed to be more creative on defense to force more tackles for loss and turnovers. How do 13 TFLs and a game-clinching interception sound in response? Yes, the offense ran a grand total of 48 plays, in part because Nebraska was able to play keep-away somewhat on offense, but the bend-but-don't break Buckeye D was back in action, peppered with some abrupt drive killers this time. Even Will Howard gifting the Huskers a possession starting on the Buckeye 7 yard line ended with zero points for Nebraska. All this being said, it's impossible to ignore how inept the offense looked last week. Part of it was starting a new LT, which we will now do again for the second straight week. Part of it was the rest of the line looking like they just learned the signals last Friday (except you, Seth, we love you, Seth). Part of it was Howard missing some obvious reads, even though his passing game was overall very efficient and he was able to create when the line didn't hold up. And that's what gives me the most hope for this game. Look, last time these teams met it wasn't like the Buckeyes had all the room in the world to make anything happen on offense, either. The game was basically 60 minutes of both teams beating their heads against the wall until Marvelous Marv was able to spring open for a play or two. And that was with Chevy "Like a Rock" McCord standing transfixed in the pocket. Remember, the Buckeyes were a defensive hold away from a strip sack defensive TD disaster in that game. In a reminder of why everyone loved/hated his offense when he was the coach, Urban came out this week and said the Buckeyes will need to run Howard 15-20 times in this game to have the best chance at success, and I'm inclined to agree. No point in trying to keep him bubble-wrapped at this point with the entire season on the line. Last week had the feeling of trying to white knuckle out a win without putting anything on tape for the Lions for how the offense was going to operate with the line reshuffled. Obviously that goes out the window with the line reshuffled again, but I'm sure Chip has enough in his bag of tricks to get the W this week so long as the offense can execute. And it's not like Penn State is a juggernaut on offense either. Their RBs are comparable to ours, if a step behind, and I don't expect Allar to go 18-42 like he did last year, but where are the receivers? If you can't get this Buckeye defense to take a step or two off of the line of scrimmage, then I expect Penn State to have the kind of offensive success they had last year, with 6 points through the first 59 minutes. The one wild card is TE Tyler Warren, but generally it's not a great sign of a strong offense when your best receiving threat is a tight end. That's what Wisconsin offenses look like. It'll take a great game from the Buckeye safeties and linebackers to contain Warren, but Downs has been a rock all year and Simon has been trending upwards. OSU: 20--PSU: 16
Schweinfurth: I'm gonna say it. Penn State does not feel like the #3 team in the country. I feel like this is a default ranking, but I can't fault the voters. However, I would put them there too right now. Now for this game. I really hope last week was a look ahead game. If nothing else, it sure got the Buckeyes' attention. They don't need any more motivation than to hear all the locals doubting this team. I do have faith that the Buckeye offense wasn't trying to show a lot while breaking in a new LT. Guess what, we have a new LG and LT this week. Great...This is the type of game why the Bucks got Will Howard. I expect to see more QB runs. Get the ball to the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. On defense, I enjoyed the changes made up front with more stunts and blitzes. It's time to be selectively aggressive. Allar may or may not play but Penn State doesn't really scare me down field. The athletic LB corps will be tested and I think they will pass this test. I'm taking the Bucks here, but a loss makes this year feel like 2005 all over again. OSU: 27--PSU: 24
Seeberg:  Well folks, here we are.  Litmus test number two, where highly stoppable force (Ryan Day, 2-6 vs. top five teams) meets easily movable object (James Franklin, 1-9 vs. Ohio State, 3-17 vs. top 10 teams).  To be quite honest, Franklin's ineptitude in this game, and Penn State's unwillingness to continue playing it, makes much of the Buckeye fanbase not believe this is a big game, so Ryan Day is in a very precarious no-win scenario here.  A win?  Big deal, it's Penn State, they always choke against us.  A LOSS?  Oh dear, break out the guillotine.  Both teams come off remarkably bleh performances last week, likely due in no small part to injuries (offensive line for OSU, Drew Allar for PSU).  Allar will reportedly give it a go, but I'm sure we'll see the running QB also, a factor that has been the Silver Bullets' achilles heel in recent years (see: Dillon Gabriel TD run).  Also, if anyone watched the USC/PSU game, we need to use approximately 8 men to cover their only trustworthy weapon in the pass game...the dreaded tight end (sorry Fleming, you ain't it).  One thing I do know:  If Jeremiah Smith has 4 targets again like last week, we probably lose.  Marvin Harrison carried McCord and Co. to the win last year, and #2 and #4 need to add up to #18 this year.  Speaking of #18, Will Howard continues to largely impress minus 1-2 "what the fu__" moments per game.  Avoid those, and even with a banged up O-line, the Buckeyes likely win.  Will the Pennsylvania kid be too amped up and try to force the issue?  I don't know, but that doesn't seem to be his style thus far.  I don't expect it to be pretty, but I do expect James Franklin to clam up with that bemused, I-don't-know-what's-happening out-here-and-I-wish-I-could-do-something-about-it look on his face.  It won't be pretty, but the Bucks get it done.  OSU: 24--PSU: 19

Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss
Hoying: Louisville over Clemson
Schweinfurth: MSU over Indiana
Seeberg: Duke over Miami

Week 9: A Surprise, To Be Sure, But a Welcome One

Standings:

1.) Hoying 20-11 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 19-12 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 18-13 (2-6 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 18-13 (1-7 upset)

Realignment continues to pay dividends as the Oops! All Bangers 2024 season rolls along with five more ranked matchups. Raise your hand if you foresaw Navy, Illinois and Vanderbilt playing in ranked games in week 9, or if the fight for sole possession of first place in the SEC did not feature Alabama, Georgia, Texas, or Tennessee.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen

Draper: Historically, this is one of (if not the) most lopsided rivalries in all of sport.  The Irish have 80 wins to Navy's 13 (3 in the last 60 years!).  However, this Midshipmen squad has a little chip on their shoulder and a 0 in the loss column.  I do know one thing: it SUCKS playing an option team.  Marcus will have his hands full preparing for this Navy attack, but the shocking feature is that Blake Horvath has also been slinging it (only 300 passing yards behind Riley Leonard).  It needs to be noted that the Navy schedule has been hot garbage while Notre Dame has faced and defeated some stout competition (and lost to NIU).  I don't think Navy can stand up for a full 4 quarter game against the athletes of the Irish.  Give me Notre Dame continuing to press for a playoff berth after pulling away in the second half.  ND: 33--Navy: 17
Hoying: Is it possible for a program like Notre Dame to be flying under the radar? Their season-opening win over TAMU has only appreciated as the season goes on, and while the Northern Illinois loss is still inexcusable, it appears to be more of a 2016-Clemson-loses-to-4-8-Syracuse blip than any true indication of ND's potential. The Irish haven't faced a lot of tests since then (Louisville is pretty OK), but it's not like this week's opponent has been facing a murderer's row in the AAAAAC either. So far out of conference, Navy has faced Bucknell (bad) and Air Force (bad but with shooty planes). And, credit where credit's due, the Midshipmen have generally looked terrific, matching their usual elite rushing offense with an effective-when-needed passing attack from Hilliard Darby's own Blake Horvath. You like red zone efficiency? The only team that does it better than the Buckeyes is Navy, although Notre Dame's no slouch with an 82% red zone TD rate either. This one comes down to who's been doing it against better competition, and although Notre Dame's weaker-than-advertised schedule still leaves a lot to be desired compared to the Floridas and Purdues of the world, it's the Irish who have proven themselves in a fight, not the military. ND: 31--Navy: 21
Schweinfurth: Navy (and Army) is undefeated 6 games into the season. It's been a long time since we could say that about the Midshipmen. I have always had a soft spot for the triple option, but this year is different. Navy can actually throw the ball! That adds another element to their offense that they just haven't had. With that said, see this coming down to a one score game. I'd love to see the military academies continue to win, but I think the Irish will just squeak by. ND: 35--Navy: 31
Seeberg:  Hearkening back to the days of yore with this (ranked!) matchup.  Navy, while significantly improved, have played a whole lotta nothing thus far this year.  I do expect this one to be competitive, as we all know the triple option is a nightmare to defend and slows the game down as well.  Over four quarters, however, ND's offense should have enough openings to have just enough breathing room that the golden domers can breathe easy in the fourth quarter.  Irish pull away late.  ND: 38--Navy: 20

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: This has all the makings of a weird Bert game.  Overlooked Illinois faces #1 team high on life just waiting to get popped....but I really don't think Illinois is that good.  They are a solid upper middle class team with a balanced attack, but the Ducks have too much explosiveness on offense and good defensive line play to allow a loss here at home.  Their trap games are in Ann Arbor (yes, really) and in Madison.  Regardless, they'll likely cruise to Indy with their softish schedule.  Ducking the Lions and the Hoosiers is a major boon.  Ill: 13--UO: 30
Hoying: I tried to tell you last week, this Illinois team is dangerous. Or maybe Michigan is just really, really bad. Probably the latter. The Illini didn't do a great job of moving the ball against the Wolverines, but as predicted, they flustered the Michigan O and capitalized on turnovers. The Illini would love to do that again this week, but as some of you may have noticed a couple of weeks ago, it's not easy to get turnovers out of this Duck offense. Illinois did have some success slowing down the Big Ten's other non-Ohio State elite team when they were a missed field goal away from a halftime lead in Happy Valley, but the counterpunches just weren't coming often enough to put Penn State seriously on edge. I don't need to tell you much about Oregon; you saw what they did to the Buckeyes and they didn't look any less sharp obliterating Purdue last week. I am concerned with how long the Ducks can handle success, but you can pencil them into Indianapolis right now, and they won't face another serious test until then (maaaybe Camp Randall in a few weeks). This may be the biggest game left that they have to get up for. Ill: 13--UO: 34
Schweinfurth: I look at this game and, while Illinois is ranked, Oregon is by far the better team here. Teams have also struggled going out west this year. I just don't see a scenario where the Illini win in Eugene. Ill: 10--UO: 35
Seeberg:  Oregon played probably an A-/B+ game at home and beat a D+ Buckeyes squad by one.  Impressive?  No.  The Ducks don't need an A game to beat Illinois, but a C game could catch them out.  Illinois doesn't run it quite as well as a typical Bert squad, but they're throwing it better to make up for it.  The Fighting Illini don't exactly strike fear historically either, so the Ducks may come out flat as they did several times early in the season.  Gabriel and Co. just have too many athletes over four quarters to let this one get away barring SERIOUS weirdness.  Quack quack.  Ill: 20--UO: 34

Missouri Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Of all the sneaky games this week, this is the easiest for me to pick (so go the other way!).  I don't think Missouri is any good this year.  They took out ranked Vandy at home in 2 OT and.....that's it.  Oh yeah, they were blasted by the only other team on their schedule 2 weeks back.  I don't think Bama is CLOSE to the Bama of old, but they have far better athletes and should coast here (if not, the temp on DeBoer is going to rise).  Milroe balls out and the Tide roll.  Mizzou: 17--Bama: 31
Hoying: Right now, the 7 teams at the top of the SEC standings list are Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and Vanderbilt. Obviously Missouri won't be playing themselves, but care to hazard a guess how many of the other 6 are on Missouri's schedule this season? Just two: the Aggies, who completely embarrassed the Tigers a few weeks ago, and Vanderbilt, who Missouri needed double overtime and and a missed FG to escape. The Tigers keep winning, I guess, but they're a far cry from the borderline top-10 SEC dark horse projection they drew in the offseason. The offense doesn't really work, and that's assuming that QB Brady Cook's even ready to go after traipsing around Bryant-Denny in a boot on Friday. Alabama has their own problems but I don't see any 30-point losses on their resume. It would help if Jalen Milroe didn't keep looking worse and worse and the Tide could find some semblance of a rushing attack, but they do still have the nation's best 17-year old receiver who is 17. I can't possibly pick Missouri to win this game; if Bama manages to blow this one then the wheels are really falling off in Tuscaloosa. Mizzou: 13--Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Looking at Mizzou this year, and I wonder how they were ranked. I guess that win over a massively depleted Ohio State team did wonders for the Tigers reputation. Again, similar to the game above, Bama is the much better team. They should win this one...barring any hangover from last week. Mizzou: 10--Bama: 28
Seeberg:  Remember kids, there were signs that Vandy was much improved, and it started with a narrow OT loss to Mizzou.  Seemed a fluke then, but if those two squads met now I'd pick the Commodores.  In the Tigers come to Tuscaloosa, where dreams used to go to die.  Now it seems everyone can keep it close?  I expect the Tigers' D to do that for the majority of the game, but they're reeling on offense and just won't score enough to keep it close for four quarters.  Get your ball-watching done in the first half this week, folks, by Q4 most of these games will be over for all intents and purposes.  Mizzou: 13--Bama: 26

Texas Longhorns @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: We all circled this date in the preseason as a ranked matchup of titans.  Vanderbilt and Diego Pavia have taken over the heartbeat of the nation.  Little known fact: Vandy has the best historical record of any team to face the Longhorns (8-3 all time!).  The last game was 96 years ago, but who's counting?  Literally everyone outside of Austin will be rooting for the black and gold, but we'll soon see if UGA can beat the Horns 2 weeks in a row. While I REALLY want this to happen, I don't see it.  Even without the fans bullying the refs into changing calls, the Longhorns will get back on track. UT: 38--Vandy: 20
Hoying: OK, ha ha, it's been fun, but is this team for real? You have your non-conference Power 4 win (that has somewhat depreciated since then) but can you beat anyone with a pulse, Texas? Much like another team we know, the Longhorns looked invincible against cupcake city but were unable to deliver on the biggest stage, losing by multiple scores to Georgia at home. Suddenly the Texas O-line looks like a serious liability, and the embarrassment of riches at the QB position may be percolating into a bit of a controversy. Fortunately for the Longhorns, they don't face a stellar defense this week in Vanderbilt. Even in their crown jewel win over Alabama, the Dores gave up 35 points and struggled to stop the Tide at all after an early pick six gave Vandy a huge head start. Texas, like Missouri above, faces a pretty favorable SEC schedule this year, with the restored Lone Star Showdown against A&M as the only major test left on the schedule. But the eyes of Texas would clear up considerably if the Horns could look more like themselves against a quality team on the road. The punishing Texas defense should make that a reality. UT: 34--Vandy: 16
Schweinfurth: Yes, Vandy is ranked and a chaos team. Enter a reeling Longhorn team who have a QB controversy (but they don't?). I'm so confused. Vandy is going to give up a ton of points, so Diego Pavia is going to have to harness the chaos magic he used against the Tide here. I'm just not sure lightning can strike twice. But it would be funny. UT: 42--Vandy: 35
Seeberg:  Texas's laughable schedule (Oklahoma with a freshman QB and no wideouts doesn't count) got exposed when Georgia pretty much handled them last week.  Vandy would represent their new best win replacing...ULM.  Seriously.  Will the Nashvegas town get behind the Commodores?  Were they even aware they played football until they saw goalposts being carried from the stadium down to the river?  I'm not sure.  Either way, Texas has no excuse to take the Pavia show lightly, and they won't.  Horns back up.  UT: 31--Vandy: 16

Louisiana State Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This is a super impactful game as both of these teams control their destiny in the SEC (unlike Georgia).  Both teams have played lights out since an opening day loss to USC (ew) and ND (slightly better). Now neither team has played much of a schedule since then, but each has one decent win (LSU over Ole Miss in OT and A&M over Mizzou).  Neither team would surprise me in this game, but Garrett Nussmeier has been playing extremely well.  The home field advantage is a big swing, but the game goes to the team that makes fewer mistakes.  Both of these teams are well-known for the stupid play, so I have no idea.  Let's go with the more explosive QB.  LSU: 30--TAMU: 27
Hoying: I must be insane, because I'm honestly considering believing in a Texas A&M team after the season's midpoint. QB Connor Weigman has been no great shakes, paling especially in comparison to his gunslinging purple and gold counterpart, Garrett Nussmeier. But they don't ask him to do much; the Aggies very much more of a run-first team, with only five more passing attempts this season than That Team Up North. And it's not because they've been comfortably ahead in their games, either. Texas A&M has close wins against Bowling Green, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and, as mentioned above, a loss to Notre Dame where the Aggies couldn't get anything going. LSU's vulnerability is through the air, and that's a weakness TAMU will not be able to exploit. Time for the annual Aggie roller coaster to do its thing. LSU: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Heh, two teams I should be paying attention to, but I've ignored. I have just assumed these two were highly overrated for quite a while. Maybe I was wrong, but who knows. Let's be honest, I have no clue on this game. To me it's a coin flip. Go with the Aggies at home, I guess? LSU: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg:  First impressions can be deceiving, as it seems it may have been for these two opponents.  Both had seemingly understandable week one losses (though the USC loss looks rough now) but got right with the help of lousy schedules before beating ranked opponents last week.  Oddly similar paths, and a tight game.  Both teams also have legendary home environments, and the Aggies get that this time around.  Hoping the 12th man reclaims their title that was stolen by the Longhorns crowd last week for literally getting a (bad) call overturned.  Aggies in a fun one.  LSU: 27--TAMU: 28

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: It's time to restart the season an get back on track.  I hated having a bye week after Oregon to let the loss fester, but there was some positive talk about Day getting more involved with the defense.  Whatever this beef is between Knowles and Johnson needs to go away.  Saban mentioned the line play has been bland and uninspired...and he's right.  Too often, we've been playing the 'I'm better than you so I'll beat you by running you over'.  While our DEs are special, the scheme isn't doing them any favors.  If we used this time to scheme something on defense up front, look out Nebraska.  There is little to no worry about the offense so this week is about the defense.  I expect a complete beatdown.  While Nebraska was embarrassed by IU, they'll have something cooked up.  It's up to this staff and players to be ready and quickly "leave no doubt".  Howard continues his fantastic season with 3 more TDs but the explosive plays on the ground return.  Bucks BIG.  Neb: 13--OSU: 55
Hoying: Let's come down off the ledge. In our new era where losses are more forgivable than ever before, losing by one point to the #1 team at night on the road, where a sequence of bizarre accidents kept you from making a game-winning play, is ripe for maximum clemency. The good news is that now that all of your weaknesses (D-line pressure, deep secondary coverage, consistent push from the O-line) have been laid bare, there's no excuse for fixing them, now. Penn State in Happy Valley isn't going to be any easier of a test, and another loss would complete the journey from Playoff favorite to the Bucks' perennial stomping ground of Playoff bubble. And while it would be nice to see some signs of improvement this week, there's no need to open the bag of tricks just yet. The Hoosiers have done us the courtesy of exposing Nebraska as one of this year's "fake good" teams, with an offense that has only cracked 30 against UTEP and Northern Iowa this year. The defense is there, yes, but part of that is function of playing teams like Purdue and Rutgers; the defense didn't do much to stop Illinois or Indiana in the Huskers' two losses. Dylan Raiola's decommitment may have thrown a temporary wrench into Ohio State's long-term QB succession plans, but the future sure isn't now for Nebraska the way it is for the Buckeyes. Will Howard is handily outplaying him this season, and I really don't think the Buckeyes are going to be disappointed settling for Julian Sayin or Air Noland going forward. I like to look for mismatches in the games where the Buckeyes' opponent is thoroughly outclassed, and I just don't see any pressure points for Nebraska to exploit. Time for another ho-hum taking care of business blowout for Ryan Day, and then on to another opportunity to flip the narrative. Neb: 10--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Nebraska is not as bad as they played last week at Indiana. They just ran into a buzz saw and then chased the game. They are also highly outgunned in this game. The Oregon game should have left an empty and sick feeling in the Bucks stomach, but they still have everything to play for. Let's see if there are any defensive changes made moving forward. Denzel Burke needs help. The defensive line needs an updated pass rush. These things are fixable. Day and company have had two weeks to make changes. Now it's time to see if they actually did anything to get better over the bye week. As for this game, the Bucks should win big after a slightly clunky start. Neb: 10--OSU: 45
Seeberg:  Losing happens.  It’s, ironically, more frustrating (despite being more understandable) when you play nowhere near your full capability.  Such was the story in Eugene two weeks ago.  In hindsight, playing a lousy game and barely losing to a consensus top 5 opponent on the road isn’t all that bad.  Two weeks to let it simmer can be a double-edged sword:  Wanting to get that bad taste out of your mouth but losing the rhythm of playing each week.  The Bucks have started slowly frequently this year, and I fear the game against the Huskers will produce more of the same, particularly on defense.  Knowles HAS to try some more/different pressures and looks.  Rushing only four AND leaving corners on islands in patently insane.  Indiana absolutely destroyed the Huskers, but that felt like an aberration.  Remember, Nebraska choked out Colorado, 28-0 in the fourth quarter before giving the backups some run.  The good news, Buckeye Nation, is that Will Howard played very well at Oregon, and Nebraska’s defense isn’t nearly as good.  Balanced offensive attack, more pressure (fingers crossed) on D, and get ready for the other hardest road game of the year in the Big (thanks, schedule makers) at PSU next week.  Neb: 13—OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Miami (because F Miami)
Hoying: Wisconsin over Penn State
Schweinfurth: Kansas over K-State
Seeberg: Duke over SMU

Week 8: Se(c)paration Saturday

Standings:

1.) Hoying 18-9 (2-5 upset)
1.) Draper 18-9 (1-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 17-10 (2-5 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 16-11 (1-6 upset)

Buckeye Nation will need to wait another week for some corn husks to wash the taste of defeat out of their mouths. But while the nation's erstwhile national championship favorite licks its wounds, multiple other Playoff hopeful monsters find themselves in talent-equated matchups of their own.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: A sneaky good game to kick off the week.  I went through the schedules and found that the Hoosier schedule this season is OSU and garbage.  All credit to Cignetti for bringing IU to the relevant world of college football in half a season, but can this explosive offense and surprisingly stingy defense keep it up for the long haul?  Enter Nebraska and Baby Mahomes.  Nebraska has also played a lot of hot garbage thus far, but the win over Colorado was nice.  I don't know what Matt Rhule is going to end up doing at Nebraska (don't expect much), but this would be a nice win that no one will care about.  I was going to make this my upset special, but as it is, I need to stick to my guns.  Indiana falls from the unbeaten ranks. Neb: 30--IU: 28
Hoying: Fun fact: other than the Magnificent Seven that have joined over the last decade or so, Indiana has the fewest Big Ten Championships of any B1G team, with two. And in both 1945 and 1967, the Hoosiers were fortunate that their schedule was missing the Big Ten's premier program, Ohio State (though they did beat Michigan both years, go Hoosiers). So even though IU currently sits atop the Big Ten standings (as we all predicted preseason), don't pencil them in to any championship slots just yet. On the other hand, Nebraska, I'm told, has been some kind of all-time powerhouse in multiple decades past, but the Huskers haven't been able to overcome the Curse of Pelini, with winning seasons eluding them since 2016. Remember 2016? When Nebraska was in the top ten and Ohio State embarrassed them 62-3? And Joe Burrow came in and went 6-6 in extended garbage time and we thought "Man, the future sure is bright here in Columbus." What was I talking about? Oh yes, resurgent red teams in the Big Ten. Indiana has played garbage upon garbage over the first half of the season, but they've been taking care of business, winning by an average of 34 points and never trailing in a single game. I've never seen Indiana look this competent, not even back in 2020 when future Heisman and natty runner-up Michael Penix was slinging it within one score of knocking off the #2 Buckeyes in Columbus. And that might be a problem for Buckeye Nation in a month or so, but it's definitely a problem for the Huskers right now. Nebraska has looked the part themselves for the first time in forever, slipping only against the Big Ten's third surprise team of the year, Illinois, but they aren't doing what the Hoosiers are doing on offense. Once-Ohio State QB commit Dylan Raiola has been...fine...for the Huskers, but former Ohio U QB Kurtis Rourke has come out of nowhere to light the world on fire for Indiana. As we saw last week, grinding the Little Sisters of the Poor into dust doesn't necessarily translate to being able to perform at the highest level on the biggest stage, but I don't think playing Nebraska, even an improved Nebraska, reaches that threshold. Neb: 21--IU: 35
Schweinfurth:  Not sure if Indiana is for real, but they sure have been fun to watch. The offense is carrying this team, but Nebraska can put up some points as well. I see this as a one score game, so you know what that means...Neb: 28--IU: 31
Seeberg: We all had this one as a key conference matchup back in August, right?  NOPE.  Regardless, Coach Cig "Smoke 'em if you got 'em" Netti has the Hoosiers on a roll they haven't seen since 1967.  Playing the dregs of the conference has obviously aided the Hoosiers, as we knew NW would be lousy, and MD and UCLA have been equally bleh thus far.  Still, with no Oregon, Penn State or USC on the schedule- and UM at home where things have often been tricky for the maize and blue- the Hoosiers might be on pace for DOUBLE DIGIT WINS.  Nebraska, however, poses their stiffest test to date.  An above average team on both sides of the ball, let's not forget the Huskers absolutely stifled Colorado to the tune of 28-0 through 3 quarters before calling off the dogs.  That game, however, was in Lincoln, and IU often plays well at home despite a typically lackluster crowd.  This may be more of a heart than head pick because I do believe the Huskers have the better roster, but it's fun watching the Hoosiers be good and I want it to keep going.  Hoosiers squeak one out at home.  Neb: 17--IU: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: What to do here? Both teams limp into this game after lackluster wins last Saturday.  Bama clearly has the talent edge, but the Vols are at home.  I feel like I have more faith in the Bama raw talent winning out.  This isn't huge props to the greatness of this Tide team, but they are the better than the orange on the other side.  When both teams look overrated (they probably are), default to better athletes.  Roll Tide.  Bama: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: Last year was a bit of a down year for the SEC. As of just three weeks ago, it looked like the league was back in form with five teams legitimately vying for the #1 spot. The only one of those five that hasn't beclowned themselves since has been Texas, as neither of the teams at hand has put together a solid four quarters over the last three weeks. I still think the Tide have a much higher floor (and ceiling) than the upstart Vols, and home field advantage isn't going to be enough to get the job done. UT had everything going their way 2 years ago (including but not limited to their fraud 2022 Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt), and that was still barely enough to beat a down year Bama on a last second field goal. Lightning isn't striking twice, unless we're talking about Jalen Milroe adding some razzle dazzle to the all-or-nothing Tide offense. Bama: 24--UT: 21

Schweinfurth: This is a massive elimination game for Tennessee. Bama could, and probably will still get in the playoff with two losses, but not the Vols. I learned my lesson a few weeks ago and I'm not picking against Bama again. Bama: 35--UT: 28
Seeberg: I...have no idea what to make of this game any more.  Bama shocks the world by beating UGA, then lays two massive eggs in a row.  UT looked like world beaters the first month of the season, then the schedule caught up to them and they literally look like they've forgotten how to play offense (7 of their last 10 quarters?  Scoreless).  I realize Florida is a rivalry game but the Vols looked even a half step lousier than Bama has looked post-Georgia.  Multiple scoreless quarters against Bama isn't exactly a recipe for success, even with Rocky Top blaring every 9 seconds (hi Stewie!).  Bama survives again.  Bama: 24--UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: A team that can only run vs. a coach that....can't run? There is no faith that the Wolverines have anything resembling an offense, but Illinois has shown little to believe in either.  While the Illini seemed to be the potential B1G spoiler, life comes at you fast.  The win over Nebraska was a nice one, but they did all they could to blow a game vs. hapless Purdue (lucking out on a 2 point attempt).  That will stay with you.  We saw last week that the swan song of TTUN is over.  Playing against a team with a pulse that can slow the run will be the end...but I don't really trust the Illini to show out in this game.  Again, the better athletes in this game (on the defensive side at least) wear maize and blue.  UM squeaks out an Iowa-esque 'ranked win' on the road.  UM: 13--Ill:10
Hoying: As much as I hated Michigan's success (and everything else about them) last season, it sure made for easy writeups (spoiler alert: pick the blue team). This year I can't make heads or tails of the Wolverines. They haven't really looked good in any of their games this season, but sometimes they succeed in making their opponents look worse. The passing game still isn't functional in any sense, so this one will come down to whether the UM run game can find any room to work against Illinois. The Illini gave up 239 yards on the ground to...Purdue...last week, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. But this isn't the 2023 (or 2022 or 2021) Wolverine rushing attack. At some point, they're going to hit a wall and have to test the Illini through the air. And Illinois excels in the turnover margin, +4 overall and +7 in interceptions. Look for the Wolverines to melt down for the second straight time in their second straight road game, establishing a pattern of behavior that will ultimately lead to its logical conclusion. UM: 13--ILL: 16
Schweinfurth: This game is an absolute rock fight. It's also probably worth few laughs. TUN wins because they have the better defense. UM: 9--Ill: 7
Seeberg: And now the battle of "who gets to stay ranked?" in the Big Ten.  Why UM is ranked at all is a mystery.  Same can be said for Illinois whose ranking comes primarily off their big nonconference win against *checks notes*  Kansas?  Yikes.  I'm still highly uncertain how the Illini gave up nearly half a hundred to lowly Purdue.  It's like the Purdue upset special team rolled out there a week too early.  If we know anything, this game will be ugly to watch but exciting because it'll be close given that UM can stop you but just flat out can't score it.  Purdue threw for nearly 300 and ran for over 200 against Illinois, and it's that second number that scares me.  UM can't throw for 300 against air, but if you let them run it, they will gladly do so.  UM (GAH) stays ranked.  UM: 27--Ill: 17

Georgia Bulldogs @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: The game of the year...of the week enters Austin for a massive SEC showdown.  Texas has been the darling of the college football world (outside of stupid Oregon), but let's take a look at the resume.  Wins over CSU, UTSA, ULM, and Mississippi State are expected; Winning the Red River Shootout--> OU kinda sucks; and the signature win is....over TTUN without advance knowledge of the plays or the fact that the forward pass was legalized.  There is a chance that their best win is over ULM (probably not, but....).  UGA on the other hand beat beat down Clemson, went toe to toe with Bama in Tuscaloosa, and won an ugly road game in Lexington.  Is UGA the juggernaut from the past few years? No.  Is Texas unbeatable? Also no.  It's going to be a fun game, but I actually think Kirby is going to out-scheme Sark and work on 'reclaiming the crown'.  UGA: 27--UT: 24  
Hoying: Everyone's spent the last week sh***ing on Ryan Day for being the coach who never wins the big one, but, once again, let's turn our eyes to the seeming gold standard of active coaches, Kirby Smart. In addition to his  continuing struggles against Alabama (already noted for predictive value), when was the last time Kirby beat a top 10 team on the road? The Kirbster is 2-3 in these games, with their only such wins being over Notre Dame in 2017 and Kentucky in 2018. (Ryan Day has 1 in each of his last two seasons, but I digress.) Since losing to Bama (again), the Dawgs were never really in danger last week against Mississippi State, but Texas has been the absolute buzzsaw that everyone thought Ohio State was prior to last week's unfortunate events. This matchup reminds me quite a bit of Ohio State's visit to Eugene last week. Like last week's Buckeyes, the Horns haven't really faced a functional offense yet, so this is a good chance to see if the now-#1 defense in the country is as good as advertised. I don't think this game is quite as tough a challenge for the Horns as the Ducks were for the Bucks last week, as a few of Georgia's warts have already been laid bare, particularly on defense. I'm confident that the Horns take care of business at home, kicking off a month-long denouement leading into the season-concluding restoration of the Lone Star Showdown. Who would have thought that both of the nation's premier conferences would have fresh faces firmly in control down the stretch? UGA: 20--UT: 28
Schweinfurth: I'm not really sure how good Texas is, or even if they are truly "back." They beat a bad TUN and their next biggest win is??? UGA at least showed heart and competence coming back on Bama. Again, not fully sold on Bevo yet and there are really fast cars down the road this weekend. UGA races out of Austin with a win. UGA: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg:  Maybe the only constant/consistent team in the SEC this year is Texas (man that's still bizarre to type).  The rest of the conference has gone berserk while the Longhorns just cruise along, even without Buckeye legend Quinn Ewers for a couple weeks.  This one was supposed to be the ultimate mid-season clash until Georgia nearly lost to Kentucky, crapped the bed against Bama, and followed that up by struggling to put away Mississippi State- a team that paid Toledo over $1 million to come destroy them by 24 on their home field.  Again, home field makes a big difference here.  You have to assume the Bulldogs will be up for this one, but it's not between the hedges in Athens.  Until they give me reason to believe otherwise, after Saturday night, Texas may finally, possibly, potentially be...back.  UGA: 20--UT: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Mississippi State over A&M
Hoying: Purdue over Ore...lol, no, Georgia Tech over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Stanford over SMU
Seeberg: Louisville over Miami (you stole my joke Hoying)

Week 7: Duck, Die Nasty

Standings:

1.) Hoying 16-7 (2-4 upset)
1.) Draper 16-7 (1-5 upset)
2.) Seeberg 15-8 (1-5 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 14-9 (1-5 upset)

The #1 team is back in action after their bye week, but don't expect them to remain there much longer, even with a win over their bitter rivals. The eyes of the rest of the nation are upon Autzen Stadium for what may rival Georgia - Alabama for the regular season game of the year (unless Penn State has something to say about it).

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: The Red River Shootout as an SEC game at 3:30?? What is the world coming to?  Honestly, I'm a little surprised this game is still being billed as highly as the past. Yes, it's a big rivalry, but the talent is skewed heavily on one side of the ball.  Texas gets Quinn Ewers back which matters even though Arch was playing well.  OU looks pretty strong on defense, but I don't trust the offense to move the ball at all.  The best hope for Sooner Nation is for a defensive score or a few big plays to keep UT honest.  I don't think it will happen.  Texas will get another boost for taking care of another ranked opponent that is more of a shell (see: Meatchicken, Univ. of).  Hook them.  UT: 27--OU: 13
Hoying: In this grueling 12-game audition process, only two teams have really looked the part of the implacable champion so far. You're intimately familiar with one, and the other is suiting up in burnt orange at the Texas State Fair this weekend. The Longhorns have been superb on both sides of the ball and have already clocked five solid and complete wins in this young season, the crown jewel being a thrashing of the defending national champions* on their home field. If only Ewers and Co. would have had the chance to do that last season. The Longhorns were one game away from a title bout last year, despite the one blemish on their record given to them by...Oklahoma. Texas had appeared to top the Sooners on a field goal with a minute to spare before a heartbreaking TD in the final seconds. But this year, the Sooners can't count on any last-gasp heroics from Dillon Gabriel (hmmmm...). In fact, they can't count on much working on the offensive side of the ball, sputtering to ugly wins over bad teams like Houston and Auburn, and having the other UT step on their necks for 60 minutes on their own home turf. The Red River Shootout is one of the few rivalries where you can really throw the records out the window, but a Texas choke would go down as one of the bigger upsets in the series. Horns big. UT: 34--OU: 13
Schweinfurth: I truly did consider picking Oklahoma here, because weird things happen in this game. But then I saw all of the WR injuries for OU. And I do mean ALL the WR injuries. Let's face it, Oklahoma was probably facing an uphill battle to begin with. Missing some offensive firepower makes this an impossible mountain to climb. UT: 33-OU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic SEC rivalry, Texas and Oklahoma.  Honestly, it hurts my soul a bit to even type that.  Such is the brave new world of college football in 2024.  The pendulum in this rivalry may have swung the Longhorns' way for the foreseeable future.  Crazy things happen in rivalry games, we all know this, but a team coming in already as an underdog and missing FIVE of their top SIX wideouts is insane.  There's just no way the Sooners can put up enough points over four quarters to hang with this Texas squad.  Longhorns comfortably.  UT: 31--OU: 10

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Honestly, I think this game will be a lot closer than most expect.  The close loss to the Gophers on the road are having the world hop off the Trojan bandwagon, but Lincoln Riley is good for 1 or 2 stinkers a year.  Miller Moss is really talented but he'll have his hands full with the Nittany Lion defense.  The game will come down to Drew Allar.  Is he who we thought he was or has he developed into something more? I don't think he's leapt into the elite category, but competence is on the docket. This one will be closer than the experts think.  I'm really close to pulling the trigger, but Franklin usually wins all the games outside of the truly elite matchups (which he loses nearly all).  The Lions squeak a victory in Los Angeles to stay perfect.  PSU: 21--USC: 20 
Hoying: Remember when we thought that maybe USC had fixed their defensive problems after all? Yeah, turns out not so much. Michigan didn't throw any wrinkles at the Trojans to eke out a win, USC just ran a bad scheme for an entire half and then showed off their lack of tackling prowess in do-or-die time. Of course, it doesn't speak much for the Trojan offense, either, when they go to Minnesota and put up 10 points fewer than the aforementioned Wolverines did. Penn State, meanwhile has been quietly excellent all season. They're not quite on Ohio State's level but I truly think they are the biggest stumbling block to an undefeated Buckeye regular season (spoilers for my pick below). Drew Allar is finally performing as promised, and the defense, while not quite as elite as last year, is still sufficient to slow down all but the most potent of attacks. The weird Big Ten travel bug (teams traveling at least two time zones are 1-8 in conference this year) will stop this one from being a laugher, but Penn State is too good and too balanced on offense for the Trojans to keep up. PSU: 31--USC: 24
Schweinfurth: Man, USC is bad against the run. And I do mean bad. Just look at what TUN did by just running power over, and over, and over, and...you get the point. Penn State can actually throw the ball, if they let Allar rip it. I'm really not sure it will matter. This defense was supposed to get sorted out for the Trojans, but it's still stinky poo. I like the Lions here, even if Franklin tries to pucker. PSU: 28--USC: 21
Seeberg: Hmmm, an interesting matchup here, particularly for James Franklin.  On one hand, he generally beats everybody he's supposed to beat.  However, he's made millions by playing up his connections to USC every time that job opens up.  If he beats them down, the job won't be as glamorous.  So much for increased paydays for never winning anything of consequence.  The Lions have played nobody, but have looked proper in those games.  USC's defense is actually improved, but is still highly porous against the run.  If the Nittanys get out to a lead, they will be able to run the ball, shorten the game, and there isn't much the Trojans are likely to be able to do about it.  It won't be super attractive, but Franklin keeps the undeserved hype train rolling in Happy Valley.  PSU: 27--USC: 17

Mississippi Rebels @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: The fact that this is a ranked matchup surprised me...the fact that it is a top 13 matchup???? Floored.  LSU has been quietly good since the opening week loss to USC, but further review of the schedule reveals....trash.  A 3 point (comeback) win vs. South Carolina on the road is the only plus with hapless Nicholls State, UCLA, and South Alabama filling out the slate.  Ole Miss crushed SoCar on the road, suffered the hiccup to a better-than-you-thought Kentucky and played some more garbage.  Death Valley at night is no small mountain to climb, but Jaxson Dart and Kiffikins seems to have some mojo this year.  UK won by churning it out on the ground.  I'm not convinced LSU can do the same.  Miss: 31--LSU:20

Hoying: I look at the rankings, I see LSU at #13, and I ask myself, well, how did they get here? Losing to USC looks more troubling than it did a month ago, and the best win is a 3-point victory over South Carolina on a late TD pass, a missed Gamecock last second field goal, and a questionable call negating a game-sealing Gamecock pick-six. Much like the Trojans above, LSU's defense picked up right where last year's ended, and now they don't have freshly minted NFL superstar Jayden Daniels to bail them out on offense, although Garrett Nussmeier has been no slouch in replacing him. He's no Jaxson Dart, though. Ole Miss is doing everything LSU does, only better. That includes fielding perhaps the finest defense of Lane Kiffin's career, which, while a low bar, could be enough to make the difference in this one. I hate riding with the Rebels in big games, but with games against Texas A&M and Alabama coming up for LSU in the next month, there's still plenty of time for them to be exposed as frauds. Miss: 35--LSU: 24
Schweinfurth: I still think Ole' Miss is overrated. With that said, LSU isn't great either. Buuuut. Jaxon Dart can still spin it and Kiffin knows how to use his offensve talent. Rebels win. Miss: 35--LSU: 13
Seeberg: Another top 15 matchup of second-tier, we-get-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-because-we're-in-the-SEC schools.  I don't think either is capable of making much noise in the playoff, so why they're ranked so highly is beyond me.  Regardless, LSU is down much more considerably than the Rebels this season, KY loss notwithstanding.  I expect their offense to bounce back and put enough points on the board to quiet the raucous Death Valley environment.  Miss: 27--LSU: 17

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Game 1 of the 3 game season hath arrived.  Further review of the Buckeye schedule shows that there is a gauntlet to run from here out (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, IU, TTUN).  This feels like a statement game for the Buckeyes.  They've heard all along about how they 'haven't played anyone' and 'we'll find out soon if they're any good', but this is time for them to prove that this team is the elite of the elite.  The main Oregon 'film' I saw was vs. Idaho (in which they squeaked out a win on the scoreboard even though they dominated the game) and vs. Boise State where they were LUCKY to eke out the win on the scoreboard with 2 special teams TDs.  The biggest red flag was Ashton Jeanty tearing up the Ducks for 192 yards and 3 scores on the ground.  While Jeanty is a special talent, the Buckeyes have 2 special talents at RB.  OSU has been amazing at scoring TDs in the redzone.  Expect more of the same here.  Howard needs to manage the game, make a few key scrambles when needed, and limit turnovers and the rest of the Buckeye offense will cook.  I expect a similar script from all games this year.  Punch/counter-punch in the first half while the defense feels out the Dillon Gabriel attack, then deluge in the 3rd quarter.  Let's not forget that Gabriel's numbers have been nice, but this Buckeye defense has NFL talent.  Multiple explosive plays in the run game drive the Buckeyes to a huge win in Autzen Stadium and propel the Bucks to #1.  OSU: 31--UO: 20
Hoying: I'm officially a believer. This Buckeye team is built to championship specifications, and they should be right in the title mix barring a rapid fire barrage to their own feet. Look no further than the Buckeyes' newfound success in the red zone. As John Madden would say, you have to score points to win football games, and points don't get left off the board anywhere on the field more often than in the red zone. Back in 2019, when the Buckeyes put together the most dominant regular season in history, they finished fourth in red zone TD % in the country, tied with a little program called L.S.U., and settling for three field goals against Clemson ultimately did them in by a single possession. In 2022, when the Bucks were a hooked field goal away from stealing a national championship from the current dynasty, they finished sixth, well ahead of the rest of the Playoff field. In 2020, 2021, and 2023? Not inside the top 40. And this season, the Bucks have scored a touchdown on every single red zone possession, except one (cue the Penn State Super Bowl graphic), and that lone FG possession was thanks to a boneheaded late hit personal foul. With all due respect to CJ Stroud, my all-time favorite Ohio State player on offense, this year's run-first, mobile QB scheme looks much more like the championship teams of Buckeye past. I'm reminded of JT Barrett getting back on the field in 2015 as our red zone specialist, and then taking back the starting job full time once it was clear how many points a true zone read rushing attack was worth. Oregon is currently at a middling 67% red zone TD percentage and a pretty dreadful 81% overall red zone scoring percentage. A few of these empty possessions have been specially delivered by Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel straight into a waiting defender's hands. It's not like Will Howard is immune from turnover-worthy plays either, but (1) Ohio State's defense will be much better at capitalizing on these mistakes than Oregon's will, and (2) Ohio State has the luxury of leaning hard on an elite running attack if the passing game starts to falter. Ashton Jeanty was able to find room to move the Duck D, and I don't think Quinshon and Tre are too many steps behind the all-universe Boise State RB. And they'll have the luxury of a much better offensive line parting the flock. The Bucks carry their momentum into their second bye week and take care of business against the Ducks. For now. OSU: 35--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: I finally started following Parker Fleming (not that Parker Fleming) on Twitter (it will always be Twitter) and there were some stats thrown out this week that made me think a bit. Chip Kelly loves to run RPOs. While the Bucks haven't shown too much of it this year, it's there and has been a Kelly staple. Oregon struggles against this type of play. Hmm. As long as Good Will shows up, the Bucks will be just fine on offense. There are also so many weapons in the Buckeye offense and we haven't even seen the full Buckeye playbook. Defensively, Ohio State has been stout against several types of offenses and really, they just don't let teams score in the red zone. We may see a lot of the spread out offense we saw vs. Marshall to create running room, but Oregon has struggled scoring in the red zone. This feels like a physical beat down by the Buckeyes. Oregon will hang for a bit, but Ohio State is too big and too talented. OSU: 35--UO: 17
Seeberg: I have not been shy about picking against our beloved Buckeyes over the years.  An away matchup against a top 5 opponent would seem a likely occasion to pick against the scarlet and gray again.  In all honesty, however, I just don't see it that way this time.  This Buckeye team, save for slow starts, has been the team we thought it would be on both sides of the ball.  The gradual lead-up to this game culminated with an excellent performance against Iowa.  Save for two self-inflicted gaffes (Howard run call on 4th down was lousy, Howard's INT was the right read but well behind Egbuka), The game would likely have been out of hand even sooner.  Iowa's defense is comparable to Oregon's, but the O-line held up to the tune of 0 sacks and 203 rushing yards at 5.1 per carry.  Oregon is talented, but not as deep as the Bucks' D-line and they will be worn down over 60 minutes.  This is likely the first game the starters will be needed for four quarters, so they should be fresh.  Red zone efficiency will also be huge.  OSU is literally at 100% (with all but 2 being TDs), while Gabriel has already thrown 3 picks in the red zone.  Turnovers/settling for FGs won't cut it against the Buckeye team.  Bring out the orange sauce, Bucks cook Ducks.  OSU: 38--UO: 20

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Iowa State
Hoying: Colorado over Kansas State
Schweinfurth: Cal over Pitt
Seeberg: Vandy over Kentucky