Friday, November 29, 2024

Week 14: Day of Reckoning

Standings:

1.) Draper 36-15 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-16 (3-10 upset)
2.) Seeberg 35-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 34-17 (1-12 upset)

During the peak Cooper years of 1995-1997, Ohio State saw two of their #2 ranked, national title chasing supersquads upended at the hands of those dastardly villains, then failed to repay the favor as their rivals traipsed past to a controversial trophy of their own. One year later, Coop's (arguably) best squad exacted their revenge in punishing fashion. This year, they know what fate awaits. They will be powerless to stop it. Go Bucks. Beat Blue.

South Carolina 'Cocks @ Dabo Swinney's Tigers
Draper: This rivalry has taken a backseat of late, but the stakes this year are significantly higher than those being reported.  The Cocks enter Death Valley as a sneaky playoff contender while the Tigers continue winning, but it uninspiring fashion.  South Carolina has navigated a brutal SEC schedule and is poised to take the final leap.  I can't buy into the Tigers with their subpar showings all year.  Cocks take this huge contest on the road for an epic ending of a stellar season.  SC: 27--Dabo: 20
Hoying:
Well, would you look at that. Everyone's least favorite little ol' squad has resurrected their season after getting absolutely plastered in their opener against Georgia. Except, you probably have noticed that they haven't been featured on Let's Go Bucks! since that one-sided season opener. The reason: the Tigers have faced the father of all unbalanced schedules in the ACC. Seven schools in that conference (including the Tigers) have a chance to finish with a winning record in league play this season. Dabo's boys played ONE of these, Louisville, and lost by double digits. There is a very good chance that this group is fraudulent to the point that Indiana looks like 2019 LSU. Carolina, for their part, has pieced together a couple quality wins, a couple quality losses, and a real puzzler of an egg laid against Lane Kiffin & Co. The Tigers feasting on cupcakes all year hasn't always been dispositive of an inability to deliver when it counts (see, e.g., 2019 Fiesta Bowl) but the victories haven't been consistently crushing enough this year. Cocky finishes out a respectable 9-3 season and starts crowing for the 12th Playoff spot. SC: 24--Dabo: 17
Schweinfurth: I've enjoyed watching Frank's kid coach the 'Cocks this year. It's been a fun story. Unfortunately, the Tiger Clown has a pretty decent squad. Tigers should win this one. SC: 17--Dabo: 31
Seeberg:  This contest has a little juice to it that has been lacking the last several years.  South Carolina has a solid D and a respectable offense, and it's basically the reverse for Dabo's crew.  The Tigers still, potentially, have the playoff to play for, while Carolina would only be playing spoilers.  But let's face it, that's enough reason to shoot their best shot in a rivalry tilt.  I can see this one going either way, and Dabo and Co. are good in their friendly confines, but they also haven't beaten anyone with a pulse this year, and Carolina has.  Go Cocks!  SC: 23--Dabo: 20

The Fighting Irish @ Southern California Trojans
Draper: The Irish have absolutely resurged after the horrific loss to Northern Illinois early this year, but they still have one final hurdle before the CFP.  The Trojans are the opposite as they were fantastic early in the season and faceplanted down the stretch.  The battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh has had a few epic clashes, but this isn't one.  I foresee the Irish coasting into the playoff (with a surprisingly easy schedule) while Riley and crew fade back to the beaches.  Irish: 31--SC: 17
Hoying:
Boy, wasn't it great when both of these schools knocked off their SEC opponents back in week one? Of course, each of these had follow-up experiences they'd like to forget: the Irish losing to Northern Illinois, and the Trojans just losing a whole bunch, although no loss was quite as bad as NIU (Terps loss is close, though). USC was even gifted one of the easiest schedules in the B1G, with Penn State as their only top opponent (way to really give that one away in the second half, USC). ND has been doing their usual bit of beating up on everybody and nobody (no one cares that you beat West Point) but with quite a bit of style along the way. The Irish are way overdue for a reality check, but the Trojans' account is too far overdrawn. Irish:34--SC:17
Schweinfurth: B1G squads usually bust the Trojans pretty handily. The bad news, SC is not good. The boy out of  Wayne at ND has that squad's D rolling. I think this is close, because west coast travel. Irish win. ND: 24--SC: 17
Seeberg: Could Lincoln Riley be bought out for an obscene pile of cash after this one?  Signs point to...possibly?  In any event, the Irish keep putting that insane loss to NIU further and further in their rear view by the week and are playing excellent ball.  The wheels have all but fallen off out west for USC, not that nearly all of college football cares one way or the other.  It would take an earthquake to shift things enough this season for this one to go the Trojans' way.  Irish roll.  ND: 34--SC: 13

South Beach Hurricanes @ Syracuse Orange
Draper: Is that south beach squad worth anything? Sure, Ward has had plenty of jaw-dropping throws, but the defense is hot garbage.  I don't expect the Canes to hold up against elite talent.  Luckily, Syracuse, while quite good, isn't elite.  The OSU transfer, Kyle, has quietly had a really nice season for the Orange and can cap it off with a titanic upset.  Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked by an Orange win, but the Canes have a lot on the line.  A trip to the ACC title is too big of a prize to avoid.  Canes win the shootout and seek the Horsies for the CFP berth.  Canes: 38--Cuse: 31
Hoying:
Speaking of unbalanced schedules in the ACC, the Orange has heretofore played one other ACC foe with a winning record in conference: Georgia Tech. The Canes also played GT (and lost) but also snuck by Louisville and Duke along the way. The Canes' QB, Ward, was in the discussion for college football's top individual award earlier this season (before Travis Hunter ran away with it), but it's actually the QB on the other sideline who's putting up the bigger stats this year. Honda no longer, Kyle has been free to sling it after leaving OSU, and the fate of his squad is usually wrapped up in yardage he's able to generate through the air. The Canes' defense hasn't been airtight, but they've been a veritable brick wall contrasted with what Syracuse has been allowing to opposing QBs. The U is still vulnerable, but the pressure points in this one are all wrong. Let's see what the Ponies can do next week. Canes:38--Cuse:27
Schweinfurth: Cane's QB Ward is pretty, pretty good. 'Cuse has a Honda. We've all seen how that works out in big contests. As I see it, the Honda throws a few picks and the Canes pull away. Canes: 35--Cuse: 14
Seeberg:  I will be exceedingly happy when I don't have to hear any soundbites by our worst QB in two decades Honda Accord next season.  Thinking about not playing in this contest?  To save it for what, a 6th round pick and to get cut by the Jaguars?  Ridiculous.  That's all anyone needs to know about this one.  Canes easy.  Canes: 31--Cuse: 13

Texas Longhorns @ Texas Agricultural Etc. Aggies
Draper: A colossal return to this rivalry after a surprising 13 year absence has the college football world on the edge.  The Longhorns are purportedly back after the resurgence of 2023, but the Aggies are still holding around the 9-10 win total year in and year out.  Jordan Hare was a real downer to this contest, but the stakes are still as high as ever with the victor set to faceoff with UGA in the SEC title. I honestly have no good grasp on this event as Texas has really avoided all contenders in the SEC (other than the Bulldogs) and haven't beaten anyone of note.  The Aggies have beaten both Tigers in the SEC, but have an analogous lackluster list of key wins.  Kyle Field is going to be insane, but I don't know if the Aggies have the athletes to contend.  I'll go with the Horns for now, but I don't feel great about it.  Horns: 20--Aggies: 17
Hoying:
I have yet to be convinced that the Longhorns are elite. Blowing the doors off the Wolverines doesn't count for a lot at this point, and the Horns blew their only chance to knock off a top level opponent when Georgia ran UT out of Darrell K. Royal. But at least they've been taking care of business, which the Aggies can't say. Losing to South Carolina? OK, but try not to do it by 24. Losing to Auburn? That's otherwise reserved for Kentucky and the little sisters of the poor (but I repeat). QB Reed has turned into a wild card for the Aggies but the Horns didn't blink when the Sooners trotted out their dual-threat QB in a 34-3 loss. Aggies do just enough to cause Texas to perspire but the Longhorn defense is just too big an obstacle. Horns:24--Aggies:20
Schweinfurth: Vegas is begging everyone to take the Aggies. Here's the thing, they are overrated here. The 'Horns have shown that they are one of the best in the country this year. Are they back? Possibly, but a win here will surely help the narrative. Ewers or Payton' nephew at QB, it won't change the ending. Horns: 35--Aggies: 13
Seeberg:  Nice to see this rivarly renewed.  The Aggies despise Texas...Texas, I get the sense, doesn't really care, they focus on the Sooners.  While its true that Texas avoided the brunt of the SEC (and was soundly beaten by the only good squad they faced in Georgia), they have been getting better under the radar.  Buckeye transfer Quinn Ewers (see how silly that sounds?  Now stop doing it for Caleb Downs, sheesh) hasn't thrown a pick since their bye week.  Few errors coupled with a solid defense is a good recipe for wins, even against the Aggies who actually have a pulse.  Longhorns pull away late.  Horns: 31--Aggies: 20

Kansas State Wildcats @ Iowa State Cyclones
Draper: Ranch-ageddon returns and the Clones seek their first 10 win season...EVER.  The Big 12 has turned into 'spin the wheel' so who really knows what to expect.  Will has left the Wildcats in a tough spot while Iowa State hoping to sneak into the CFP.  The wheel for now, lands on the Clones but there isn't any result that would surprise.  SEND IN THE CLOOONES! KSU: 24--ISU: 27
Hoying:
Every conference entered this weekend with a few scenarios for how their conference title showdown would be set. Ohio State's in with a win, otherwise it's Indiana or Penn State vs. Oregon. The winner of the Lone Star Showdown plays Georgia. Tulane vs. Land Navy was already set, etc., etc. Every conference, that is, except the Big 12, where a whopping NINE schools enter this week with hopes of playing next Saturday in Jerryworld, and NONE controls its own destiny. And how do the scenarios for those nine schools play out? *Nate Bargatze George Washington voice* "Nobody knows." What I do know is this is the only ranked Big 12 feature of the week, although not the only one with two schools still alive in the title hunt. As for the squads at hand, good luck trying to find an edge in this one, or any other in the Big 12 while you're at it. Kansas State appeared to be cruising toward a top two finish in conference before faceplanting against awful Houston a few weeks ago thanks to an inconsistent offense. Iowa State is better at getting a solid 25-30 points every week, and that's probably enough to get the job done here.  KSU:23-ISU:27
Schweinfurth: The Big 12 is a trash receptacle fire. Does anyone actually want to win the conference? I really can't get a read on any of these guys. I think I'll flip a coin on this once because, honestly, I have no clue. KSU: 20--ISU: 21
Seeberg:  Oh yeah, the Big 12 has ranked squads, too!  All down in the teens or lower, but a lot all bunched up in that range.  Didn't expect a lot out of the Cyclones this season, they have pleasantly surprised.  The Wildcats (thanks for the QB!) are about where I figured, except a lousy loss against Houston (unless it's basketball).  There are roughly 250,000 possible scenarios for the conference title tilt, so why not inject another touch of chaos??  Wildcats late.  KSU: 27--ISU: 23

That School Up North @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Expect the Scarlet and Gray to be out for blood.  The hope is that there won't be an abundance of pressing by the Bucks.  While urgency is clearly there, this should be won with the excess talent on the good side of the rivalry.  TSUN just doesn't have the horses on offense to keep up. The Bucks would be wrong to ignore the defensive talent of the blue, but if this turns into a battle of sheer talent, it could turn into a rout.  Nothing is taken for for granted, but I expect 5 years of pain to be exorcised in these 3 hours.  Expect the rushing attack to work to the edge with the DT talent of TSUN, while Will continues his excellence in the short and in-between passing attack.  JJ and Egbuka will shine as the Bucks FINALLY get it done.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! TSUN: 10--OSU: 38
Hoying:
How in his head is Ryan Day? John Cooper, despite being an otherwise top-level coach, allowed a couple of unfortunate decisions in closing seconds of these rivalry clashes to rattle his decisions. Hence 1995-1997. Day has been saying the right things this week but he's looked...tight...as well. This isn't anything new, he was tight for Penn State week, too, but gone is the easygoing "we're definitely going to win" countenance we saw for Indiana week. On paper, there's no reason for Ohio State to lose this year. The Wolverine offense doesn't work, 50 points against Northwestern notwithstanding. There is no hint of a passing attack, the rushing attack has been noticeably worse than Ohio State's all year, and the defense is only OK, especially if star CB Will Johnson (who probably should have been on the cover of EACFB 25 instead of The Don) doesn't play. But the Wolverines have been steadily getting better over the last few weeks. They put up a fight against Oregon and nearly knocked off Indiana on the road before doing...that...last week. But as the folks doing Wolverine Day After Sunday up at Buckeye Huddle have been saying all year, there's a clear path to beating these guys: just don't beat yourself. Don't allow their wrecking-ball interior D line to put you behind the sticks, or worse, force turnovers. Don't fall for any garbage that this stuck-in-first-gear offense tries to heave onto the field; bend but don't break is probably a good enough plan to win this week if the resurgent pass rush inexplicably isn't working. IF the offense can be patient and give what the Wolverine defense allows, Sonic Henderson & Knuckles Judkins can be the ones wearing down the Corn and Blue front for a change. Just don't let a "Have to Win" turn into a "Can't Afford to Lose". TSUN:9 (they do have a good kicker)--OSU:38
Schweinfurth: I have been waiting for this one for a long, long while. I want blood. The Buckeyes want blood. Ryan Day wants to hang 100 on these a-holes. This is the year for a reckoning. No sign stealing. No d-bag QB who defends cheating to the ends of the earth. This is about Ohio State going out and executing. Will Howard has stepped forward with his progress and leadership. I wasn't sure what the Bucks were getting when he transferred, but it's been a great ride. He's going into this one ten feet tall and bulletproof. I appreciate the after action fire last week. Channel it and bring it again. TTUN cant' throw the ball to save their lives. You know what they are going to do. The defense has been building to this since the Oregon loss. Leave everything on the field. A ton of guys returned for this ONE. Win for those who returned. The debt is due. Pay up and get that ass whooped on Saturday Sharone. TSUN: 10--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  FINALLY.  Anyone reading this blog knows what this one is all about this year.  It took a colossal cheating scandal and OSU's worst QB since Joe B. to get TTUN three wins.  And a natty. *throws up*.  The age old question "what would you give up to win a title?"  has been answered.  Any shred of dignity, half the coaching staff, and a gargantuan wave of sanctions soon.  This edition of the TTUN squad is 6-5 and could just as easily be 4-7 thanks to fortunate calls in wins over the Gophers and USC.  Their offense is 128th out of 134 units.  The forward pass to TTUN would be like showing an ancient Egyptian an iPhone.  Utterly perplexing and bewildering.  Still, it's a rivalry.  It's THE rivalry, and weird sh** happens.  A lot.  Shawn Springs slipping still haunts children of the 90s *reluctantly raises hand*.  How does a squad with the best collegiate OL ever AND the Heisey trophy winner at RB AND the Biletnikoff winner lose anything EVER?  John Cooper, I await your answer.  This one canNOT be lost by the scarlet and gray under any conditions whatsoever.  IF we start slow and IF we stubbornly try to run between the tackles and IF a bag of tricks/Igbinosun penalties gets their lousy offense a little footing, the Shoe will get terrifyingly nervous.  For the love of God START FAST, keep the crowd engaged, and the Wolverines will buckle.  As lucky as they have been in a couple wins this season, I sincerely hope that luck has run out, and they can, to quote the original Gladiator (with edits for language) "crawl back down that craphole where they once dwelled".  Paraphrasing is close enough.  Go Bucks.  TSUN: 13--OSU: 27

Upset Special
Draper: Auburn over High Tide
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Vanderbilt over Tennessee
Seeberg:  Houston over BYU

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