Week 17: Cotton Cane-dy

Standings:

1.) Hoying 51-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-23 (2-12 upset)

With the departure of the stupid auto-byes for garbage conference champions, the 2025-26 CFP can look forward to a quarterfinal round largely devoid of chump teams (your mileage may vary on the Rose and Cotton Bowls). Will the Big Ten put a record 3 teams into the semifinals? Or will we see continued departures from the total chalk that dominated the inaugural 12-team tourney?

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I'm really interested to see how this one turns out.  The analytics have favored the Ducks all year while I've faded them (to my detriment), but I also haven't felt that Tech was a juggernaut either.  I could see either outcome here as both teams were built on all the money.  The Red Raiders have been undervalued most of the year due to weaker competition, but the wins over BYU (both of them) and Utah are nothing to sneeze at.  Oregon's crowning achievement was beating USC at home....which is nice, but nothing to phone home about.  Regardless, I'm really torn. The analytics literally have this as a coin flip so....I'll keep fading the Ducks.  Why not? Guns up.  OU:17--TT:20

Hoying: Both of these teams have been terrific on both sides of the ball this year, but everyone's eyes are on the high flying Duck offense against the Texas Tech stone wall led by the best D-line money can buy. Both have excelled all season; which team has proven it can execute against decent competition? TTU faced some real live offenses in Utah and BYU and dispatched them with relative ease, which Oregon was able to pile on against the likes of USC and Penn State. Where will the dam break in this one? Oregon would love to take the game out of Dante Moore's hands. Not that they don't trust him, but the Ducks have preferred to lean heavily on their ground game this year, with excellent results. That is, except against Indiana, when Oregon ran for a paltry 108 yards and Moore threw 2 interceptions trying to catch up with IU. Tech's run D is like a rock, which means that Moore is going to have to make some plays to win this one. And that's bad news for the Ducks, as nobody is causing havoc to the QB this season like Texas Tech, leading the nation in turnovers and finishing in the top 10 in sacks. I mistrust defenses that build their identity on big plays but the Tech D is so sound otherwise that I don't think it really limits them. And the Red Raider offense has been great as well except when QB Behren Morton was out against Arizona State. That may be indicative of a depth issue, but if there's one Playoff game where depth shouldn't be a problem, it's the first one, which bodes ill for Oregon. A lot of new money (like, newer than Oregon) is going to be appearing in the semifinals this year. OU: 20--TTU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon's run game has been a problem for teams this year. They are fast and physical. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses, but Indiana had trouble with this run game as well. This is the Red Raiders' first go at this and I expect some jitters. Oregon has been there and Lanning seems to be a step ahead. I expect Oregon to move on here. OU: 24--TTU: 17
Seeberg: This one is an intriguing matchup. This season there are only 5 teams that I think are capable of winning it all, and these two are in that group. Texas Tech has basically done in one season--with oil instead of swoosh money--what Oregon has done the last 20 years; throw insane resources at the college football program and voila! Instant contender. The problem now becomes, which team do you trust? The one that's never been there before, or the one that gets there and then gets run out of the stadium by the Buckeyes? IU exposed Dante Moore a bit, not all that dissimilar to how the Hoosiers confused Sayin in the B1G title game. The Red Raiders have an excellent defense as well, but they don't scheme it up quite as well as Cignetti's crew. I also don't expect Morton to put up 30 like Mendoza did. It will stay relatively low scoring (take the under kids!), but a few more plays by Moore and his weapons will make the difference. The Red Raiders' color scheme is just different enough from scarlet and gray to see Oregon through the semis. OU: 23--TTU: 13

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm going to do it.  I just can't believe in #1 Indiana.  On paper, this should be a bloodbath.  Curt Cignetti is a psycho (which is a compliment in college football coaching circles), Mendoza is a baller (if not the biggest nerd on the planet), and that defense is straight nasty.  But.  Bama is Bama.  While they are a shell of what they were with Saban, I saw some of the hitting in the SEC championship and it was brutal.  There's really no reason for Bama to be on the same field against the Goliath of the Hoosiers...but college football is weird.  IU goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the LBJ administration, and, while they've surmounted all the obstacles (beat OSU: check, win the B1G: check, win a freaking Heisman: check), I feel like they're due for a regression.  Bama was getting spanked early vs. the Sooners, but rose from the ashes to take a convincing win.  The Hoosiers are WAY better, but Bama is inevitable.  Give me the Tide to end the super season for the boys from Bloomington.  Bama: 24--IU: 20

Hoying: Sometimes you watch a back and forth gridiron slugfest and walk away marveling at the clash of the titans you just witnessed (kraken release optional). And sometimes you're just thankful that you got to witness another modern episode of the Three Stooges. This year's Playoff opener was very much the latter. After getting obliterated by Georgia in the SEC Championship, Alabama managed to sneak into the CFP ahead of the much, much better Notre Dame despite handing in possibly the single worst performance of any Playoff team as their closing statement, finishing off a stretch run of miraculously escaping South Carolina, phoning in a win over LSU, losing to Oklahoma, and darn near losing to the incompetence incarnate Auburn Tigers. And the trend continued into the Playoff...for about a quarter and a half, before Oklahoma's wide receivers (and punter) forgot how to catch. I know Bama fans are hoping that all that talent (and program mystique generated by Saban) will rise up and save them at some point, but until I see some signs of life from the Tide, they're just another sleeping Snorlax in a world with no Poké Flutes. Indiana has been the real deal all season, and while they weren't perfect against Ohio State, a B effort from the Hoosiers would be more than enough to move on to a much tougher opponent in the semifinals. Bama: 10--IU: 24

Schweinfurth: Bama can't run the ball, and probably should have lost if it weren't for Playoff Oklahoma. Indiana is going to tee off on Ty Simpson. I really don't see how this goes any other way. I have not been very impressed by Bama this year. Indiana can, and will move the ball decently here. This isn't Saban's Bama. The only pause I would give is Indiana gets into "happy to be here mode" with the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Hoosiers may just be too much. Bama: 9--IU: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the SEC-Big 10 heavyweight tilt we all antic…hang on, being told that it’s actually Indiana in the Rose Bowl and not Ohio State, or Penn State or, well you get the idea.  Indiana may legitimately be becoming a college football heavyweight under Cignetti- as long as he manages to hit on a transfer QB every year.  Bama, meanwhile, may be close to fading from heavyweight status as the talks were strong about DeBoer leaving altogether if they didn’t beat the Sooners last week.  It’s like Bama fans forget they were lousy for 15 years before Saban arrived (WOW does that sound like a fanbase to the north we all know and hate).  Pretty sure the Crimson Tide faithful would wipe Mike Shula off Wikipedia if any of them knew how to use a computer.  At any rate, DeBoer is, I believe, an excellent coach, but the mystifying lack of a run game this year has cost Bama multiple times, and will likely do so again.  Bama faithful are relying on the “Jimmys and the Joes” instead of the Xs and Os to win this one, but even that argument doesn’t hold much weight:  IU has 5 prospects projected in the first four rounds next April, including a Heisman QB, 2 day two WRs and a sticky cover corner (Jeremiah notwithstanding).  The Buckeyes didn’t run it well against IU, and Bama can’t run it well against anyone.  The Hoosiers’ defense is just too good to be beaten by a one-dimensional offense, and with this game the conference just might have THREE teams in the CFP semis.  Someone keep a defibrillator near Finebaum.  IU: 24—Bama: 13

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game in which I have no freaking clue what is going to happen.  Ole Miss could be an absolute shell after they were spurned by Kiffin; or they could play with an unmatched fire of hatred a la OSU last year.  UGA seems to be evolving into their final form, but does anyone really trust Gunner Stockton? Kewan Lacy is a great back that could hit some explosives and make it interesting, but the Dawgs seem on a collision course in the semis with....someone (find out below).  The Dawgs sic em and end the extra payout to ol' Lane (what a tough life).  UGA: 31--Ole Miss: 17

Hoying: This is a fascinating matchup, and not just for the rematch factor. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in Athens earlier this season before their defense completely ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, a result that might inspire a reversal of outcome in a second meeting of these teams, absent any confounding factors. But when Lane Kiffin is involved, you can bet that everyone is leaving confounded. The Rebs seemed very insistent to put the world on notice that losing Kiffin wasn't going to be the death knell of their title hopes, rendering Tulane into gooey paste in the CFP first round, but that was Tulane. Any of these Playoff contenders could do that to pretty much any G5 team (as long as Oregon's defense shows up in the second half). Ole Miss managed to hang on to DC Pete Golding, who has been promoted to head coach (with no coaching search???) and have the bulk of their offensive staff on loan from Lane, but how locked in are they going to be at this point? You saw Brian Hartline put up 10 points against Indiana, which was bad enough that Day wrested control of the offense back for the stretch run. Ole Miss is good enough to win the whole thing this year, and should not be taken lightly, but as we saw the last time these two teams met, you can't beat Georgia if you take your eye off the ball for even a quarter, let alone 60 minutes. UGA: 34--Miss: 27

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss got a bye last week. Let's face it, there were not tested at all. If we look at the teams that could actually win it all, the Rebels are not high on that list. Georgia is. This will be the meh game of the playoff semis. UGA: 35--Ole Miss: 17
Seeberg: Boo, the SEC gets a team into the semis by default *heavy sigh*.  Anyway, Ole Miss still looked solid in another dismantling of Tulane (yawn) despite the turmoil in Oxford.  UGA, however, is perhaps a slight step up in competition.  Gunnar Stockton has been serviceable most of the season and the Dawgs’ defense looked like its 2021 self as they dominated Bama in the SEC title game.  That formula- a decent QB and dominant D- won them back-to-back natties.  Bama, however, is almost entirely one-dimensional on offense, and Ole Miss presents more problems.  So many problems, in fact, that the Bulldogs gave up 35 at home to the Rebels in October (yay rematches!).  At that point, there still wasn’t a ton of tape on the Rebels’ backup-turned-star QB Trinidad Chambliss (all-name team for eternity, by the way).  With another couple months of film, combined with the loss of Kiffin and a lot of offensive staff, it’s hard to think Ole Miss will get to 30 points again.  Georgia may or may not get there either, but the Dawgs should do enough on offense regardless.  Another CFP semi for Kirby.  UGA: 31—Ole Miss: 20

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Miami Hurricanes vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Miami was the monstrous question mark in this entire playoff field.  Yeah, they have Carson Beck (the presumed #1 pick last year), but also, they have Carson Beck (interception machine).  The Canes definitely sport some dudes up from on both sides of the ball that could harass Sayin like the Hoosiers did, but I gotta believe the coaches put their heads together to activate demon mode for the playoffs.  I'm excited to see what Van Sickle does replacing the 'injured' Tshabola, but we all know that this needs to be the Smith/Tate show.  If Miami isn't able to get pressure quickly, I believe Day will be taking many more vertical shots than he did against the Hoosiers (the shots he took worked, there were just very few).  Bo Jackson needs to keep up his amazing freshman season to keep the defense honest and the backs also need to keep Sayin clean.  If he has time, the Canes are in trouble.  On the other side of the ball, Miami's Mark Fletcher looked really good versus A&M but this bullet defense stops the run much more efficiently.  It is imperative that the defensive line (Curry and Big Mac) pressure Carson Beck into some mistakes.  Beck has the tools to be a very solid QB and weapons like Malachi Toney to make the Buckeyes pay if left unchecked, but if he gets hit early and often with an early turnover, this could snowball.  While this game is not the layup Buckeye Nation believes it to be, the cards clearly favor the Scarlet and Gray.  Now, the title defense begins.  Go Ohio! Beat the Hurricanes! OSU: 31--UM: 17

Hoying: Gentlemen, I bring you...MORE DECEMBER BOWL GAMES! This time...SHALL BE DIFFERENT! Broken hearts in 2022 (and 2019, and 2016, and sure, throw in 2023) aside, the Buckeyes are facing a lower class of opponent (in every sense) than the Clemsons and Georgias of seasons past, and the boys in scarlet and gray are better than any of those prior years' December warriors (except maybe 2019). There's been a lot of bluster coming from Cuba Norte about how cooked Ohio State is going to be in this one, and I just don't see it. I would put this game into the "upset alert" category: there's a path to victory for the Hurricanes but it requires them to fire on all cylinders in their areas of relative strength (pass rush, run defense, Malachi Toney) and for the Bucks to make mistake after mistake after mistake. Problem is, Ohio State is not Texas A&M; the Buckeyes don't hit the self destruct button every November or so (kudos to A&M for hitting the self-destruct "30 minute forbearance" button at halftime against South Carolina). When Ryan Day has a few weeks to prepare for a postseason opponent, and he's not starting Devin Brown at QB, get ready for the Buckeyes to rain hell down on whomever they're facing. Each Playoff loss in the Ryan Day era has been primarily a failure of the defense, with the arguable exception of 2019, which was doomed in part by poor red zone execution. And while red zone execution is a continued glaring scarlet flag for the Buckeyes, Matt Patricia's defense gives the offense a giant safety net to operate their acrobatics over. Buckeye opponents actually punt in the 4th quarters of big games now! Buckeyes take care of business and turn their attention to the worst playing surface in the football world. OSU: 27--Da U: 13

Schweinfurth: If Miami can get pressure, and if Ryan Day goes into a shell, and if the Silver Bullets stay in Columbus, and if Matt Patricia quits for the NFL on the sideline and, if and if and if. Miami's defense is good. Don't get me wrong, they can cause issues for the Buckeyes. That offense was NOT good last week. Beck will throw the ball to the other team if he is confused and the Bucks certainly can do that. Day has play calling duties back and you know he is itching to release the sleeping monster that is the Ohio State offense. Playoff Ryan Day rarely disappoints. In my mind, this game feels like it could be over by half time. It won't, but the Bucks have the ability to avalanche the Canes like they did Oregon last year. Go Bucks, Beat the Canes. OSU: 35--Miami: 7
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, *breaks out thesaurus* highly perplexed, confounded, flummoxed and bemused at the amount of national media taking the ‘Canes in this one.  Did they watch the first round?  Miami won that game on a technicality:  The fact that both teams cannot lose a game, despite their best efforts.  A much more fitting ending would’ve been the Penn State-Illinois 9-OT “thriller” of perpetual mediocrity.  To Miami’s credit, however, they did win it.  The Canes’ seem to have mostly left their mid-season stupor behind, losing to two 8-4 squads while Carson Beck threw the ball to whatever team wasn’t wearing green and orange like it was on a dare.  Beck isn’t a particularly mobile quarterback which means one thing:  Matt Patricia can unleash Arvelle Reese from his QB spy duties.  That doesn’t bode well for any opponent.  Defensively, the Canes are excellent up front.  Their back 7 is…extant?  Pressure is paramount for that defense to succeed.  Sayin, with time, can pick their coverages apart, particularly with a fully healthy #4 in the fold.  I would love to see a big early lead and then watch Bo Jackson grind the Canes into powder, but I’m not convinced it will be an Oregon-like blowout.  Don’t fret, Buckeye Nation, if it’s not over after a quarter.  I suspect it will be over by three.  Jeremiah is highly motivated, and although Ryan Day will need a couple series to adjust to taking over play calling, the defense will (this is a guarantee) turn Beck over to get our offense set up.  All signs point to a methodical win.  Go Bucks, Happy New Year.  OSU: 27—Miami: 10