Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Week 9 - Minnesota Sleeper Awaits
Gomer: If you've watched any part of a USC game this season, chances are you've seen Lane Kiffin try some stupid stuff, today's a day when I'm perfectly okay cheering for the classless Trojans to upset the classless Ducks. Chip Kelly is a great coach, and Lane Kiffin isn't, so this could come back to bite me in the butt, but I'll buy into the ESPN hype of #1 teams being upset every week. UO: 38--USC: 39
Chief: I hate USC with every inch of my body, but I really want to call this one. Problem is, USC's defense is ungodly awful. They have been chugging on offense lately with pretty boy Matt Barkley, but Monte Kiffin hasn't gotten them to stop anyone. The Oregon offense has steamrolled everyone in their path, and USC won't put up much resistance. Only issue is, can the Trojans outscore the Ducks? I hope so, but I just can't do it. The Coliseum is just worthless. UO: 51--USC: 45
Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Gomer: MSU has shown they are a complete team. From head coach to the punter, they've got everything you need to win a championship. With the clutch, come-from-behind victory over the Wildcats, MSU definitely has the momentum to jump over their last hurdle en route to an outright Big Ten Championship. Go Green! MSU: 24--Iowa: 17
Chief: Ok, Iowa. This is your last chance. The was THE year for you to get over the hump. Veteran everything and every tough conference game (Wisconsin, MSU, and OSU) was at home. And...you failed. Make it up this week. MSU has been making a living on the edge (OSU 2002 anyone?) but no one really believes in them...including me. The Spartans have gone longer without the textbook collapse than usual, but here it comes. Ricky Stanzi won't screw up as horribly as last week and will lead the Hawkeyes to victory over Sparty. Overrated coach Kirk Ferentz defeats underrated coach Mark Dantonio because Adrian Clayborn will kill Cousins (not due to coaching). MSU: 13--Iowa: 23
Missouri Tigers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Gomer: Nebraska is a much better team and with Taylor Martinez at the helm, the Tigers will struggle to stop the Huskers' attack. When Mizzou: 17--Neb: 28
Chief: Congrats to the Tigers and a nice little win over the Sooners. It's just like Boise--beat a good team on a single game and desire to be lumped in with the top. Here is where the comparisons stop because they now have to play a second good team (and this one on the road). The Huskers need to get rolling after being bumped by Texas. This will put them back in the talk when they leave the Tigers in Bo Pelini land. Mizzou: 17--Neb: 31
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Minnesota Gophers
Gomer: OSU: 37--Minn: 10
Chief: That was more like it. Bullets returned to form. Now it's time to take their talents to Minneapolis. Let's make this clear: Minnesota is AWFUL. There is no excuse for a blowout win here. I expect the Gophers to come out firing, but it just won't matter. The Buckeye running game is getting better each week and Sanzenbacher is becoming the number one receiver (needs to happen!!). The Bucks need to come up with a good road game and Minnesota is the perfect team for this to happen. Convincing win is a must. No chance at a sleeper upset. OSU: 41--UM: 10
Other Games:
Georgia vs. Florida Gomer: UF Chief: UGA
Auburn vs. Mississippi Gomer: Aub Chief: Aub
Oklahoma vs. Colorado Gomer: OU Chief: OU
Arizona vs. UCLA Gomer: UCLA Chief: Zona
Stanford vs. Washington Gomer: Wash Chief: Stan
Florida State vs. NC State Gomer:NCSt Chief: FSU
Michigan @ Penn State Gomer: UM Chief: PSU (toughest game to pick but I want UM to lose)
Purdue vs. Illinois Gomer: Pur Chief: Ill
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Grading the Bucks Week 8--Purdue
Offense: B
Talk about ramping it up against a terrible defense. The running game under Boom Herron is really starting to develop (I can't believe I'm saying this), but the passing game, and Pryor's complete game is starting to fade which is troubling. Sanzenbacher is proving every week that he is THE receiver, but Pryor still locks onto Posey every play. The scramble seems to have been removed from the playbook as well which could really hurt this team down the stretch, expecially at Iowa. The O-Line is doing better at run-blocking and has stepped up somewhat, but they need to do it consistently. I can't give an A until Pryor gets back on track. I know he threw 2 TDs but those were thanks to a putrid defense.
Defense: A
Talk about a return of the Silver Bullets. A big time shutout (granted it was Purdue) after a total embarassment is HUGE for this defense. I want to give an A+ due to the fact the Purdue hardly scratched onto the Ohio State side of the 50, but the lack of a consistent pass rush is a major concern. As I said last week, Heyward has taken a monster step backward and until we can consistently pressure the quarterback, our banged up secondary will face too much. Injuries are decimating the secondary and a good quearterback will start to pick them apart with this much time. I loved the intensity from the linebackers and safeties but the line needs to get it going. Also, Chekwa has been getting picked on a lot. He needs to plug these gaps in his coverage. Keep an eye on Andrew Sweat who made a big splash starting for the injured Ross Homan.
Special Teams: B-
Well, no kicks returned against us so automatic improvement. Purdue has been horrible returning kicks this year but had minor success against OSU (minor success in that they averaged more yards per return than normal). The kick return unit for the Scarlet and Gray was decent but not spectacular. No missed kicks is always a good thing and the punting was fine this week. If you start at a C, there was little to enact a move up or down.
Coaching: B+
Again, more or less status quo. I give a little boost for the coaches getting these kids ready to play after an embarassing loss in Madison. The team came out with a purpose and delivered. It was clear that Purdue couldn't stop the run so long as we avoided Ryan Kerrigan. Once that was achieved, it was game over. The coaches basically decided to use the KISS method with Pryor (Keep It Simple, Stupid) which seems to be the best strategy. If they keep the intensity rolling, this could be a scary team come January.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Week 8 Picks--D'oh
Chief: The Missouri Tigers have quietly put together a very nice little season, but let's be honest, name a team they've beaten (same as played).....What? You don't know? That's right. The Tigers have played a BoiseStateesque schedule thus far and gotten fat off it. Oklahoma had a few close scares vs. Utah State and Cincinnati, but they blew FSU out of the water (and the Noles are pretty good) and defeated a better than believed Texas team. I like the Sooners to roll and take full control of the BCS. OU: 38--Mizzou: 20
Chief: Uh oh, Les...a real team. Miles and the Bayou Bengals have stayed undefeated by being more lucky than good against mediocre competition such as Tennessee and UF (called it last week--GO Miss St). Auburn is a different animal. The explosive offense under the watchful eye of Gene Chizik and suprisingly steady hand of Cam Newton will carry the Tigers (of the Auburn variety) to another big win. The Iron bowl looms... Tigers all the way, no doubt. LSU: 13--Aub: 27
Chief: The Huskers failed their first test on the big stage by falling to their nemeses the Texas Longhorns. They couldn't stop a mediocre (at best) offense in their own house, how will they stop a Gundified offense in the confines of Stillwater. The Pokes and Huskers are similar teams in terms of talent, so I give the edge to the home team with momentum. The Orange Power will rise up and defeat Big Red in what will give the Huskers a fond farewell from the Big 12. Neb: 24--OkSt: 30
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Grading the Bucks Week 7--Wisconsin
Offense: D
The offense was pedestrian the entire game. Terrelle had enough time to do the entire team's taxes in the pocket and still couldn't find an open receiver. The passes were off target, the play calling was horrid, and the execution was awful. The only positive in the game was Boom Herron's running which took a giant leap forward. I would have never imagined we would get back into the game through our runningbacks, but they proved me wrong. When the game was on the line, the unit didn't deliver. Sloppy and disinterested were the words of the day.
Defense: D-/F
Pathetic performance by the Bullets...if you can call them that. The defensive line showed no heart and was pushed all over the field. The first quarter, they couldn't hold Wisconsin (a pedestrian offense at best) to a single play which resulted in less than a 5 yard game. Chekwa was picked on all game and never rose to the challenge. I know Wisconsin has fat O-Linemen, but the Buckeyes let themselves be pushed away and run over. We knew Wisconsin was going to run with Clay and we couldn't stop it. It was strength on strength and we were dominated. The lack of intensity on the defensive side was also painful apparent. A leader must emerge and I don't see one. Cam Heyward has been a major disappointment and has most likely lost millions by not going pro last year. I'm hoping his lack of production is due to constant double-teaming...but I'm not convinced that's it. When the offense woke up and brought the team back into striking distance, the defense couldn't prevent the knockout blow on the final Badger drive...that's where championships are won.
Special Teams: F
Sorry boys...you suck. Many pundits continue to point to the final score and say "They didn't lose because of the kick return to start the game since they lost by 13." I'm here to say, that's BS. Momentum is HUGE in college sports, especially on the road. OSU came in looking to put the hammer down and prove their superiority. Wisconsin needed to prove to themselves that they had a shot...and the kick return gave them the hope and belief. You could see the energy rise and the drunken multitudes in the stands erupted into a frenzy when the Badgers showed they were here to win not to lose close as well as the deflation and skepticism introduced onto the Buckeye sideline. Let's not also forget the missed field goal in the first half. Had that been converted, the comeback ties the game and puts a whole new spin.
Coaching: C-
The Badgers clearly decided to roll the dice and go reverse of most defenses vs. OSU and stop the pass. They consistently dropped into coverage befuddling Pryor into indecision. I will admit that the coach's decision to move to the ground game in the second half surprised me and was a sound decision (even though I doubted at the time). My main problems were the lack of inspiration and hope the coaches were showing. Every time Wisconsin responded or scored, they looked deflated and defeated...and that was passed on to the team. Perhaps the most glaring coaching deficiency was on the Buckeye's FG drive in the 1st half. 1st and goal inside the 5 led to 3 straight runs (Pryor, Herron, Pryor) to no effect. This is unacceptable from a coach. Wisconsin was handed more momentum and a 4 point greater lead (FG instead of a TD) because Tressel went beyond uber-conservative. Listen, conservative is fine but that drive needed a touchdown. The playcalling wasn't as conservative as it was unimaginative. QB Blast, HB Blast, QB Blast....this isn't UF and Pryor isn't Tebow. The Badger coaches looked as surprised and elated as the Buckeye fans looked befuddled. A roll-out run pass option with one of the best dual threats in the game; a PA fade; a counter run by the halfback...SOMETHING DIFFERENT!! Victory goes to the bold, not the scared.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Week 7 Picks--That was interesting
MissSt @ UF--Gomer: UF Chief: MissSt
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Grading the Buckeyes Week 6--Indiana
Offense: A-
Pryor looked great in the pocket and found the open receiver 9 times out of 10...and they were WIDE OPEN. The run game actually got moving a bit with Boom on the draw as well which is good to see. My favorite part of the gameplan was the move of Brandon Saine to (essentially) a slot receiver. I truly believe that Saine has the better football attributes but he's just not getting it done from running back. He's a steller receiver and showed it this week. I dropped them from an A because of the gameplan. It was blatently clear that Pryor was told running was unacceptable. I understand they wanted to protect him, but he must run next week. Pryor looked great, but some 3rd downs were handed to Pryor on a scramble and he shunned them (definitely called from the coaches). We still converted because IU is awful but take what the defense gives you. Carlos Hyde's fumble at the goalline also hurts, but it was mopup time.
Defense: A-
IU moved the ball very well against the horrid UM defense and they appeared to be pretty solid offensively. This looked like a test for the Bullets after a little shakiness recently, and they took the challenge and blew it up. The defense held the Hoosiers on their side of the field for most of the game, forced turnovers, and totally shut a pretty decent offense down. The secondary played well with a few picks and the pressure worked out well. The garbage TD was a little ugly, but it was backups...but they are still part of the defense.
Special Teams: A-
Nothing heard which makes it a good day. Some will complain about the FG block but I put that on the coaches. No reason to try a 53 yd FG with a kicker who has already shown he can't get the ball up high enough for the bombs. Tough task to ask a freshman kicker to kick a 50+ yarder for his 1st and 2nd attempts. Coverage team looked great, return game was pretty good, and the punting game was very good.
Coaching: B+
I went a little lower because of the FG call...still think that was stupid. Loved the playcalling. Perhaps Tressel read my recommendation of 70-30 passing/running breakdown and he took it to heart. The run blocking is still weak but the draw play worked well (since they can just tell the line it's a pass--o-lineman aren't too bright). Pass blocking, QB vision, WR routes, and RB blocking was excellent (I know it was IU) so utilize it. I wish they let Pryor run a little. IU gave it to him and he didn't take it. I respect keeping him healthy, but he needs to run next week.
Thursday, October 07, 2010
Week 6--Conference Grind
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
5 Things We've Learned--Week 5
I know SECSPN would rip me for this but it's the truth. There is immense talent in that league without a doubt and I would never say something bad about Saban (for fear of my life--note: he's the exception), but this weekend was an embarassment of coaching in that league. It's gotten to the point where the coaches (and interested media partners--looking at you worldwide leader---and CBS) spend more time talking up the conference to create a false excuse for the horrible blunders from the sideline. Les Miles finishes a game for which he should be fired and his comment is "Just another day in the SEC." I guess one interpretation would be a slam on the mediocrity of the conference and horrid coaching (sans Bama).
Let's start with the minor infraction by a coach considered 'one of the best', Mr. Urban Meyer. The Gator's have been the poster child of the SEC for the last 5 years or so (Praise Tebow), but their time has come and there's a new leader in town. The torch was passed last year in the SEC championship to the Tide. The beatdown in Tuscaloosa was more evidence of this phenomenon. Regardless of this transition, Meyer doesn't want to let go of Tebow. You know the play to which I'm referring. 4th and goal, 1st quarter, down 7-0 and Meyer calls the Tebow special: the jump pass. Look, I think the right call was to take the points, but if you want to go for it, fine. Worst case scenario is Bama gets the ball on the 1...or not. Jump pass is read by the Bama coaches before the play and Trey Burton (termed Tebow-Lite...tipping your hand maybe?) throws the pick in the endzone to not only give up the points, but also gives Bama favorable field position. Urban needs to realize that they need to play with an underdog mentality again even though it's been 40 games since they've been the underdog.
Now, to the abomination of the weekend. Baton Rouge featured the showdown for dumbest coach in America (won by the well-known Derek Dooley--who?). I was so excited when I saw Les Miles ineptitude bite him by substituting his whole offense with 10 seconds to go, snapping before the team was set, recovering the fumble, and the clock expiring. Hooray! He got his comeuppance....but wait. Dooley and his assistants sent 13 Vols on the field for the final play of ineptitude. Note: these extra defenders didn't influence the play at all. Dooley hands Miles another untimed down on which they score to end the game. In the words of Jerry Palm, CBS writer, "It's hard to out-dumb Les Miles, but if you don't put your mind to it, it can be done. Without referring to the myraid official failures on this play (1. not staying over the ball until UT had a chance to substitute which is allowed by rule, 2. not calling the personal foul for the LSU player spiking his helmet after his coach screwed them, perhaps I should stop there), both of these coaches better get either fired or severely questioned by their alumni/athletic director. Dooley is almost certainly an interim coach after the Lane Kiffin debaucle, but Miles better watch it.
2) The Heisman race is not over regardless of the media's perception
Watching ESPN and reading all kinds of coverage of college football, the 2010 Heisman Trophy has already been engraved with Denard Robinson. While he is absolutely the frontrunner (undefeated team, stunning video game numbers, dual threat QB, leadership, etc.), it is the first week of October.
What if Robinson trips over a curb tomorrow and breaks a leg? He's out.
He is the UM offense so he takes a ton of hits. What if he breaks when someone catches him (which most likely will happen)? He's out.
What if they play a real defense that knows how to tackle (see the next...oh 7 weeks)? He's out.
What if his team hits a losing skid and ends the season 6-6 or 7-5 (very possible)? He's out.
What if another candidate has a great stretch that sends his team into the title talk? He's out.
There is way too much time to call this a done deal when there are so many different scenarios still to come.
3) Everyone blaming the BCS for Boise's falling need to critically examine the situation instead of the knee jerk reaction.
So many people in the media have ambushed the AP poll and the coaches poll for jumping Oregon over Boise in the latest poll. Oregon has the best win outside of Bama of those high ranked teams and are deserving of jumping as high as 2 in the latest poll (this coming from a Buckeye fan). By saying this, I want to temper the statement by saying if OSU goes to Wisconsin and Iowa and wins both of those (impressively or not), they will deserve to jump back to number 2--Bama is still 1 until they lose, they've earned it.
Most of the talk I hear is centered on the 'outrage' that Boise can get jumped while thumping the horrid teams in their conference. Many blame the BCS to find an outlet that is in no way related to the argument. With or without the BCS, ordering happens based on who you beat and how you beat them. That's the nature of ordering. A playoff is supposed to heal all wounds in this scenario, but what happens if 2 non-conference champions round out the top 8? Right now it's Boise and TCU in the playoff. Are you suggesting that an uproar wouldn't come from Arizona, Michigan (State and Wolverines), Oklahoma, and the multitude of undefeated teams...not to mention the one loss teams vs. the top opponents? The sad truth is that every system misses something. A playoff makes us feel good about Boise and gives them 'their shot' but do they deserve a shot? Of course! Do they deserve it over many other teams? Not as clear.
My major point of contention is that the same people 'up in arms' about this are those who rail against preseason rankings for their 'bias' and affect on the championship picture. Let's look at it critically. Boise was number 3 in the preseason and everyone complained that they have no chance to jump into the top 2 without a top 2 team losing because of the horrible, evil, very-bad, no-good, rotten pollsters who vote with the sole intention of screwing Idaho. Yet, these same people say how wrong it is for an accomplished Oregon team who beat a good Stanford team to jump a Boise St. that has no wins of that caliber. It's a ludicrous double standard. If you want Boise to have the opportunity for moving up based on their body of work, they must also have the ability to move down based upon their body of work. The sad truth is this: Boise's does not have a win as good as any team above them (yes, OSU's win over Miami is better than Boise's over VT by a hair). The sadder truth is that they will not have a better win by season's end as their next best game is against the powerhouse Wolfpack of Nevada (I'm aware they played Oregon State and I stand by my statement).
Here's my solution. Keep the preseason rankings. They're fun and always a point of contention. But from week to week, the voters (coaches, media, and Harris) must be willing to allow the poll to fluctuate based on the entire body of work. The idea of you own the position until you lose is outdated and must go...unfortunately, there's about zero chance of that happening so we'll have to keep arguing here.
I'm so sick of everyone's absolutely defiant opinions about which conference is the best. Here it is, the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth: NO CONFERENCE IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN ANOTHER IN THE BIG 4 (SEC, Pac 10, Big 12, Big Ten)--sorry Big East, you're terrible and sorry ACC but you just don't have the juggernaut this year--very competitive, but no standout. The Big 12 is hanging on by a thread with OU and Nebraska but Texas is really hurting.
The SEC is the de facto because they've been top heavy these last few years with Alabama and Florida (and LSU a few years back). Now, it's Bama at the top, UF, Ark, LSU, SC, and Aub in the ok but still haven't proved anything yet, and the rest is trash. The Big Ten has OSU at the top, Iowa, Wisc, MSU, UM, PSU, and NW in the ok but nothing proven and trash. The Big 12 is pretty much OU and Neb with some stragglers (what happened to Texas). And finally, the Pac 10 is getting way too much love...more to come (see point 5). Stop trying to order them because each conference has it's goods, oks, and citgos (bad). Just enjoy the game and see which team plays harder and comes out on top.
5) West Coast bias is starting to cloud judgement...yeah...you heard me.
I'm sure some people will come down on me here but I'm gonna say it. Slow down on the Pac10 talk. They've joined the party, but nothing special. Top to bottom, the Pac 10 has a very good Oregon team with a dynamic offense (and no defense); a good Stanford team that will only go as far as Luck takes them; a stout Arizona team that is the only team out there that plays defense (and will still play a major factor in the conference); and....well not much else. USC was gutted by sanctions and have already shown vulnerabilities; UCLA went on the road and exposed Texas (good win) but lost to Kansas St.; Washington beat USC in their house but got destroyed out of conference; Oregon St is the most overrated of them all getting beat by TCU and Boise (good teams) but catching them on bad nights--not to mention squeaking by Louisville at home; Cal got smoked by Nevada; Arizona St. had a stellar special teams unit they gave them a chance to pull off the upset in Madison but fell short with no offense; and Washington St is a train wreck.
All the 'east coast' reporters are quick to laud the Pac 10's 'reemergence' as the 'second best conference'. They're just pandering to the crowd to show how they've always been a supporter (false) so more people will read their column. This refers to point 4: this brought them back into the top tier, but can you really say they're better? The answer is no.
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Grading the Bucks Week 5--Illinois
Offense: C
After having their way against Eastern Michigan (which they should have), the Buckeyes looked a bit shellshocked on the road. After I emphasized practicing the run against suck MAC opponents, we saw Saturday why I wanted that so badly. Tressel decided it was time to prove we can run in the Big Ten...and he failed. Our offensive line is exceptional at pass blocking (as we've seen all year) but looks like a bunch of old women when run blocking. They can't move defenders backward; they can't open holes; it's just no good for Big Ten play. We saw that the lack of run game development (including the runningbacks as Saine and Herron didn't do the line any favors) could cost the Bucks in the Big Ten. I fully expect Tressel to go back to the pass first offense in the future. Look for a more west coast offense as dropback passing game seemed successful (except when Posey drops easy passes) and the shotgun scramble is the best option running too--Pryor is our only runningback. We also saw that if Pryor goes down, it's 'bad news bears'. Kenny Guiton needs more reps for backup potential if the turf monster returns. It was on the road, but c'mon man.
Defense: B-
Many spoke to the defense as the focal point of the Buckeyes win, but I wasn't terribly impressed. Many of the defense's successes were directly caused by Illini failures. The Bullet secondary gave up some open passes but it seemed that Illinois had a case of the dropsies to help out. The adjustments were not made very well to cover number 11 (Fayson) when it was clear that he was the only serious receiving threat. Also, the run defense wasn't nearly as solid as we've come to expect. They were opportunistic and presented the bend-don't-break mentality that seems to be the norm, but I'd prefer the shut 'em down mentality. Illini showed that OSU will get every teams best shot, and they'd better be ready. Next week might actually be a tougher test so bring the wood. IU can throw the ball very well but we're back at home.
Special Teams: B
And the best grade goes to....the special teams?!? What happened? Well, to be honest, nothing happened...and that's a big time improvement. No missed kicks, no blocked kicks, no big returns. I'll take it. Why not an A for this unit? Can anyone answer? It has nothing to do with our mediocre return game...it's Jim Tressel's most important position, that is simply not very good. Ben Buchanan had a bad day punting which is not good for any Tressel team. He had a few punts that went about 30 yards which is just not acceptable. This is a big time concern for the unit. Buchanan has had better days but he needs to get it going in a hurry.
Coaching: B-
It's a week late coaches. I've been telling you to practice the run because it didn't work in the 20 or so carries a game vs. the MAC. The kinks had to be worked out before Big Ten play because you can't fix problems on the road in the Big Ten...even against the Illini. It's plainly clear that it's time to go 70-30 in passing plays to run plays--where Pryor scrambles/runs on 15% or so of the dropbacks. The O-Line blocks so well for Pryor so keep pushing. Defensively was a little timid, but no real problems. Injuries are certainly tough on this D.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Week 5 picks--Conference time
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
5 Things We've Learned--Week 4
So much of the media focus is on the ACC and their struggles, but the real problem of the AQ (auto-qualifying conferences) is the Big East. Comparatively, the ACC is a powerhouse. In the ACC, FSU seems to have rebounded nicely from the shellacking received from OU in Norman, VT is bouncing back from the JMU fiasco, NC State is a surprising 4-0, UNC would be good if their whole team was on the field rather than in prison, Miami came out and wiped Pitt out on the road after losing to OSU, the stories go on and on.
Now, the Big East on the other hand is a total mess. UConn was destroyed in the Big House, WVU struggled to beat Marshall in OT, and Cincy fought OU but lost just the same (and they lost to Fresno as well). The marquee conference win up to this point is the stunner of WVU over Maryland.
Here are the numbers and they speak for themselves (and will get the non-AQ conferences in an absolute uproar).
Big East vs. teams from automatic qualifying conferences: 1-10
Big East vs. FBS (Div 1-A) teams: 6-13
And the one bright spot:
Big East vs. FCS (Div 1-AA) teams: 9-0 (Yay! They might win the lower division!)
It's unbelieveable how bad they are and no one says anything.
To get the blood boiling more, think about this, one of these teams (Syracuse, WVU, Rutgers, USF, UConn, Louisville, Pitt, or Cincy) will be in a BCS bowl while at least one (usually 2) from each group of 3 will be left out: OSU, Wisc, Iowa; Stanford, Oregon, Arizona; OU, Texas, Nebraska; Florida, Alabama, Auburn. A playoff isn't needed to 'fix' the BCS, but perhaps it's time to trim the fluff.
2) Alabama and OSU are really good
As a student at THE Ohio State University, I'm a little biased but you can see from my grades of OSU that I'm very critical. OSU absolutely demolished every team this year (Miami was close for about a half--and yes I realize the other opponents were terrible) and their only weaknesses readily apparent are special teams and a consistant running game (but our QB scramble game makes it tough for any defense).
Alabama has cruised until the scare this week against Arkansas but was there really any doubt? As the scores flashed on the video board in Columbus and a cheer went up, I was very stoic, urging caution. I fully expected a team with Bama's weapons would come back. Arkansas is a very good team, but they just don't match up enough on defense to stop the Tide. As the game progressed, my caution appeared warranted (don't get me wrong, I'd like them to lose...but I really don't want Boise to get a shot because it's not right). I expect the problems of the Tide were fixed at halftime with Nick Saban threatening to kill puppies if his defense didn't wake up and hit someone. It obviously worked and now they sit undefeated with another big one this week.
3) The difference between the mid-majors and the BCS conferences (in general) is depth
My crazy, off-the-wall upset pick last week had Bernard Pierce and the Temple Owls defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. As the first half progressed, I was feeling pretty darn good about it as the scores kept flashing up in Ohio Stadium with Temple TDs vs. PSU FGs. After halftime, I noticed the Temple points completely dried up which left me wondering how a promising pick went awry.
While watching College Gameday Final (and their absolutely horrid Few Good Men parody), I discovered the flaw in my pick: it hinged on Pierce playing the whole game. It appeared Al Golden's Owl defense stifled the Lions and continually held them to FGs while Pierce run wild, but the injury bug bit around halftime and the dreams of upset died there. Without Pierce, Temple couldn't move the ball and were forced into a subpar passing game which flip field and led to turnovers.
In most BCS conferences, when 'the guy' goes down, there's someone ready in the wings to take the reins and give it a shot, but at Temple (and most other little schools) there's just a huge drop between the starters and the backups. Don't get me wrong, if OSU lost Pryor, we'd pretty much be screwed, but if Herron or Saine twisted an ankle, there are always Hall and Berry capable of moving the ball. Look at Bama. They lost a Heisman winning RB to injury and Trent Richardson smoked the competition in his absence. One guy makes a HUGE difference in the upset bids and midmajor conference races.
4) Just playing a BCS conference opponent doesn't make the game tougher
Many people jumped all over the Boise/Oregon State game as the big hurdle for Boise. Gameday was there and praise was heaped on the Beavers as a worthy opponent. If Boise could clear this evil BCS foe, they'd be ready. Here's a secret, Oregon State is really overrated. The Rodgers brothers are nice, but the quarterback is trash and the defense is a sieve. Boise's win over VT was a quality win and it will be shown as the season progresses and VT remembers they don't suck, but the Oregon State win will mean less and less as time goes on. The Pac 10 is full of midlevel talent teams and a few who have looked excellent so far (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona to a lesser extent). I wouldn't be surprised is Oregon State finishes in the lower half of the conference.
Another example is jumping on OSU for playing Ohio and EMU. Editor's note: These teams don't just suck, they're black holes of suck. I realize this. What everyone is forgetting is that every team has these garbage opponents. A lot of praise was heaped on Bama and Mark Ingram for destroying a BCS opponent in week 3. It was Duke. The Blue Devils would struggle with these crap MAC teams. Look at the team, not the conference. Realize that there are quality non-AQ teams (Boise, TCU, Utah, AF, Nevada) and suck BCS teams (Purdue, Minn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Duke, Wake, Kansas, Baylor, Washington State, UCLA--oops sorry Texas, the whole Big East) .
5) Oklahoma is the most confusing team ever
Look at the results:
Week 1: Squeak by Utah State (bad)
Week 2: Slaughter FSU
Week 3: Defeat AF by a score and get destroyed on the ground
Week 4: Survive a bad Cincinnati team on the road
Which team will we see this week? The destruction of my Noles is a quality win and beating AF no matter the score is a good thing, but Cincinnati and Utah State should have been demolished by this same team. Consistency is usually needed to win the title and Oklahoma is certainly not showing it now. Granted, it matters not how the games are won, but I would certainly not be stunned if OU drops a game that it shouldn't later this year. I expect them to blow out the Longhorns in Dallas, but watch for a let down game shortly thereafter. Remember Arizona's handling of Iowa to be follwed by a last sec TD to beat Cal (bad) 10-9?
Bonus---aka I forgot this last week
Big Ten (and in fact most of NCAA) has awful special teams
Ohio State, the marquee, thus far has had 1 punt returned, 2 kicks returned (1 called back), a blocked FG returned for TD, and a blocked punt along with mediocre to bad return/coverage teams. Wisconsin had 2.9999 kicks returned for TDs against them against ASU which would have cost them the game had the returner gotten 1 more yard before halftime. Iowa lost to Arizona following myriad special teams blunders including a blocked punt. Michigan survived the UMass scare following a blocked punt. Leaving the conference, Cincy might have pulled a monster upset had they not fumbled a punt inside the 20. This is a serious issue on which many coaches need to focus more effort. Very surprising that Tressel's mantra of field position and special teams appears to be falling on deaf ears.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Grading the Bucks Week 4--EMU
Offense: A
I really don't want to give a straight A, but 73 points...I don't think I have a choice. I will definitely not go A+ because the offensive line cannot run block to save their life. Against a bad high school team, we struggled to establish the run (with the running backs) which is a MAJOR concern. Terrelle Pryor was fantastic but he should have been. The scramble by Pryor on the 3rd play was just embarassing. I really thought he should have stopped at the 2, struck a Heisman pose, and moonwalked into the endzone...it was just too easy. TP has looked very good throwing and scrambling (and receiving), but the running game is still a concern. Saine and Herron really need to watch out for Hall and Berry. They've looked more impressive. Don't get too excited Bucks...EMU is awful.
Defense: C
Ok, we won by 53, but giving up 20 to the worst team in football is embarassing. The run defense was fine, but the secondary looked worrisome. In their defense, injuries have eaten the secondary, but it was Eastern Michigan. Chekwa was on the sideline with a slight tweak, but it was Eastern Michigan. Way too many passes down the middle of the field to wide open TEs. The pass rush was pedestrian and a 5-step drop seam route was carving us up. The good news is tweets from players after the game show that the defense was very upset at themselves for the way they performed (even with a 53 point win). They were not the Silver Bullets this week.
Special Teams: B
Here's a positive point: the special teams didn't fail all over teh field this week. In fact, they blocked a PAT! Not too much to say about the punting unit...since we only punted once (maybe twice but I was distracted at that point of the game), but there was one tackle made by the punter. That's not good!! The punter should NEVER have to make a tackle. Still not perfect but we're getting there. The coverage on kicks was very good--a great sign since our kicker was getting tired kicking off so much. Other than the weak punt coverage, no real special teams issues (which we shouldn't have against EMU).
Coaching: C
Not too much coaching to be done here. I have a few knocks this week. First, Pryor was in the game WAY TOO LONG. When the game is clearly in hand, there's just no room to risk your star player. One bad hit and we set our sights much lower than an undefeated season. Second, while I love trick plays, I felt the halfback pass to Pryor when up 25 against a bad team was a bit in bad taste. Putting new plays on film is one thing, but in that situation, I don't think it was warranted. The coaches showed they have no faith in the runningbacks which is very scary. This was a perfect game to try to work out the kinks in the running game. The defensive schemes were boring and they didn't adjust to covering the tightend.