Week 4: Akron - City of Lights

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 11-2 (1-2 upset)
1.) Draper 11-2 (1-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 9-4 (2-1 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-4 (2-1 upset)

Neutral site games are stupid. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Let's get pumped for this one! A horribly underwhelming Irish team faces the standard fatguy football of the Badgers....but it's in Soldier Field! Why? SHUT UP THAT'S WHY! The Irish have a tendency to squeak by in games they should trounce the opponent then wake up in a game you don't expect them to win.  But this year....they just look terrible.  Wisconsin is super boring and couldn't outlast Penn State, but I think they'll be ok to end the outside shot of playoffs that the Domers hold.  Kelly waits another week to take the record from Rockne.  ND: 17 -- Wisc: 24

Hoying: Remember when Notre Dame opened the season with that epic victory over a seemingly resurgent Florida State. Yeah, that seems like a million years ago now that FSU followed up that performance with a capitulation to Jacksonville State and a blowout loss to Wake Forest. Notre Dame, for their part, hasn't lost a game yet but needed a last minute TD to get by Toledo after escaping the Noles in overtime. I don't trust the Irish at all; they can't run the ball and they replaced Playoff QB Ian Book with some castoff from a second-tier Big Ten school. And, speak of the devil, here now come the Badgers, with their own passing problems. At least the Badgers can run the ball again after a puzzlingly bad ground game in 2020 (except against Michigan, lol). I was tempted to write off UW after their ugly opening loss to Penn State, but last week showed that the PSU defense is for real, in a way that Notre Dame definitively is not. Remember how Alabama ground Notre Dame into paste in the [Rose] Bowl last year in the most boring way possible? Get ready for some deja vu in this one. ND: 10--UW: 21

Schweinfurth: For all the expectations Notre Dame had this year, they have been very underwhelming. The Irish defense has struggled and the offense doesn't have much identity. Wisconsin knows who they are and are going to bludgeon the inside of Notre Dame defensive line. This game is going to be a dirty, knockdown game. Perfect for the Badgers: ND: 17--UW: 21
Seeberg: Oh the irony here.  Former Wiscy QB doing Wiscy QB like things (you know, like sub-50% completion rates) against his former squad.  You would expect some solid motivation there, but the Golden Domers just aren't as good as their ranking would indicate.  Kinda like last year, and the year before, and damn near every year from Charlie Weis onward.  Not likely a pretty game here, but score one for the B1G.  ND: 13--UW: 20

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm slightly intrigued here...but only slightly.  Arkansas ran Texas out of the building, but that's because Texas is back (to being bad).  A&M was the chosen one to take down Bama...but....they've been super meh so far.  While Arkansas was flashy with the smashmouth football, I don't think they've played a real team yet.  Now, the Aggies are going to have just enough dumb to make this close, but I think they pull it out in one that is closer than the experts think.  TAMU: 30--Ark: 23

Hoying: When are we going to stop using Texas as a measuring stick for other teams? Ever since Colt McCoy's bones were ground to make Nick Saban's bread back in 2009, the Longhorns haven't had fewer than 3 losses in any non-COVID shortened season, and I don't put a great deal of stock in Arkansas punting UT back to Austin back in week 2. I mean, good for Arkansas that they aren't awful anymore, and LOL at Texas in their preview of what a nightmare SEC life will be, but Texas A&M has been living in SEC world since 2012, and they haven't lost to the Hogs in 9 meetings since joining up. The Aggies haven't been the sharpest tools in the shed this season either, struggling way, way too hard against Colorado while the Hogs were pummeling Texas, but this is an A&M team that barely missed out on the Playoff last year, and I don't think Arkansas has closed the gap quite yet. TAMU: 24--Ark: 21

Schweinfurth: To be honest, I really haven't watched much of these two teams. I do know that TAMU doesn't look like a team that argued to be the #4 seed last year. Arkansas will make this one interesting, and I might have picked them if this was at home (stupid neutral site games). Jimbo squeaks another one out. TAMU: 28--Ark: 27
Seeberg:  Well, the Aggies started the season with a lot of hype, the team of the season that can challenge Bama in the west (LOL).  Three pedestrian wins later, including a 10-7 snoozefest over mediocre Colorado, and that moniker is threatening to be replaced by the Razorbacks, buoyed by a win over still-not-back Texas.  I don't really trust either of these teams much, particularly with a young QB Calzadas at TAMU taking over for just his second start, only mustering 34 points against New Mexico.  The unit I trust most, however, is the Aggies' D giving up just 17 points through 3 weeks.  Forcing a couple turnovers and winning the field position battle should settle the young QB enough to sneak out a W.  TAMU: 24--Ark: 17

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: RIVALRY RENEWED!! Schiano enters this Titanic struggle of undefeateds in a most un-Buttgers fashion.  The Scarlet Knights believe they are going to win, but Syracuse this is not.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sold on the maize and blue yet.  This game provides a level 2 test for the Wolverines (more than Rutgers has been since....), but I don't see the Knights ready to break through yet.  Michigan has been running the same "Look at how good we are against crappy teams" (wouldn't mind if OSU tried this in 2021), but can they up the game when the talent gets closer to even.  No, Rutgers doesn't have Michigan level talent, but it's closer than Northern Illinois.  The Wolverines will win convincingly, but Schiano won't let the team get destroyed. RU: 17--UM: 42 

Hoying: I'll admit, this matchup was a lot more intriguing on paper before Rutgers' best defender decided to have a drive-by paintball shooting and got suspended from the team. Rutgers ground out a steady road win over Syracuse, sandwiched between two obliterations of lesser opponents. Greg Schiano is starting to recapture the magic, and the Scarlet Knights aren't a gimme game in the Big Ten East anymore (more on that next week). That being said, Rutgers does not appear to be quite on the same level as their oldest Big Ten rival, as the Wolverines are on an absolute tear to start the 2021 season. Yeah, they're not playing great teams, and yeah, McNamara appears to be your run-of-the-mill Harbaugh quarterback, but, to put it mildly, the running game is going to be a bit of a problem. The Wolverines have two running backs on pace for 1,000 yards, with Blake Corum within striking distance of doubling that mark. Michigan hasn't averaged 5 yards per carry in any Harbaugh era season. This year they're averaging 7. We've seen hot starts turn sour for the maize and blue under Harbaugh before, but if this squad can escape Camp Randall next week, they might not taste defeat until at least November. Michigan keeps rolling for now. RSUNJ: 14--UM: 35

Schweinfurth: Schiano keeps building and building at New Jersey's state school, but Harbooger just has more talent at Michigan. Look, the Wolverines can run the ball and have an identity. That much has been established and I think that's how this game will go. I can totally see Michigan getting a decent lead and the Rutgers busting out the trick plays. It's what they do. Michigan wins, but Buttgers scores some stupid TDs late. RU: 24--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Are...are the Wolverines back?  Certainly seems more likely than the Longhorns at least.  Bringing Schiano back to Rutgers where he had them up to #2 in the country at one point (yes, you read that right) was pure genius and it's already starting to pay dividends.  He needs another year or two to fill out the roster his way, however, and last year is looking more and more like a fluke for the maize and blue.  I don't like it either.  I FINALLY got the Cooper-year jitters out of my system and now they're competent again?  Damn.  RU: 20--UM: 34

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: Ok....Akron is bad.  Like really, REALLY bad.  So bad that Ryan Day has chosen to rest his starter in the game.  This is an interesting move as it doesn't happen in college very often, but I think it's pretty savvy.  Look, OSU has struggled in the first 3 games (even though Oregon is really good), but you can see that Stroud isn't quite right.  Part of it is mental (I'm sure he got death threats and the like from idiots on social media) but there is also a physical component with his shoulder.  The QB room for OSU is stacked, and this will give the staff some time to test these prospects under fire while not risking much (...hopefully).  Coach Day should (in my opinion) completely throw all support behind C.J., but let him rest.  There will be more internet coaches that will tell him it's time to change QBs, but this is an opportunity to learn without crushing your starter.  Trust Henderson, Olave, and Wilson to make explosive plays and hope the defense can get a little better each week.  The line is still a monstrous 48.5 points.  OSU could cover it, but I think the dogs will be called off early.  I'm just hoping it's not raining :(.  Akron: 10--OSU: 52
Hoying: I can't get a bead on whether this season of Buckeye football has been weirder than recent years. 2018 had the sudden and unexpected problems on defense and in the running game, which we never really figured out and which never really went away. 2015 had an offense largely intact from piling up big points in a National Championship run suddenly grind to a halt, only to reawaken once it was too late. And of course 2020 speaks for itself. But something seems really off this year. Multiple players are unavailable for mysterious reasons, quarterback play is wildly inconsistent, defensive play is consistently awful, and there just seems to be an air of general unease, like everyone's not pulling in the same direction. At least we seem to have figured out the running game for the next 3 years (heck, let's get Trey Henderson enough NIL money to stick around for 4). The QB situation will be fascinating to watch over the coming weeks. It shouldn't (SHOULDN'T) be much of a task for McCord or Miller to put up big numbers against an awful Akron team, but I can't imagine that will move the needle from Day's commitment to Stroud as the starter. When Braxton Miller was nursing a knee injury in 2013, Kenny Guiton put up JV-mode video game numbers against FAMU after rolling Cal the week before, and then he disappeared for the rest of his career. But when Justin Zwick went down against Iowa in 2004, Troy Smith seized the job and didn't look back until the Heisman Trophy Trust called his name. For the fourth time this young season, I have no idea what to expect from this game, other than I don't foresee a Buckeye loss as a possibility. Hopefully the ball will find a few more receivers' hands (welcome back, Chris Olave), and Henderson can cement his spot as one of the top running backs in the country. And defense? Use this opportunity to try everything else you've got in the bag. You're going to need to be ready for Rutgers next week (not a joke). Akron: 17--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This game just got spicy. I've been saying it for two weeks. I think Stroud's shoulder is worse off than the coaching staff is letting on. You don't miss some fall camp days for no reason. Props to CJ for battling through, but sitting him for this game is the right call. Let's be honest, the Buckeyes could tell Akron they are running every play and still get at least 5 yards per carry. I am very interested to see how Kyle McCord and Jack Miller look (yes, Akron is bad). Guys will be open, but if they can hit Olave and Wilson deep and in stride, we may have a conversation here. Defensively, get the pass rush right and tighten up the zones a bit more. There is a huge problem if Akron throws for more than 200 yards. Score early and often, get the starters out and stay healthy. Akron: 13--OSU: 59
Seeberg:  From week one I had my concerns about Stroud, watching him roll his arm over periodically, as if something was tweaked in his shoulder.  Nice to know I'm not paranoid, and definitely a good idea to rest him against the MAC bottom feeder.  Olave going catchless last week, to me, was a function of Stroud's arm not feeling great, the fact that he locks in on Wilson a lot, and a stupid holding penalty.  Getting CO2 going again is crucial, and the play action game should work as we are capable of running for a half-marathon's worth of yards on the Zips.  Run it early, throw it in the middle, rest everyone late.  Tyreke Smith back should aid the front 4 getting pressure also.  Drop 7, work some coverages and keep somebody under 20 please?  Akron: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: NC State over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg:  South Florida over BYU

Week 3: Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it!

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 7-2 (1-1 upset)
1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 6-3 (2-0 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 5-4 (1-1 upset)

Well, one of these years Ohio State will win a nonconference home game of consequence. The Buckeyes haven't had one since...2002 over top 10 Washington State? 1995 over Notre Dame? At least the Domers are returning next season. Good for what ails ya. Until then, let's just hold our collective breaths that CJ Stroud can suddenly turn into 2018 Dwayne Haskins or 2020 Justin Fields, because he's going to have similar defenses backing him up for the foreseeable future.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators

Draper: Is this the year that Bama starts the inevitable decline that affects everyone? HAHAHAHAHAHA.... no.  Saban is just chugging along and will continue.  UF has an interesting situation at QB with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, but it's still Bama.  Even though Saban has transitioned to focusing on the offense, they don't suck on Ds.... This isn't a hard call.  Death...Taxes...Bama...Bama: 38--UF: 24

Hoying: Florida is 2-0, has an average margin of victory of 21.5 over those two games, is playing at home in one of the loudest stadiums in the world, and is locked in as a 2+ TD underdog. Yup, the annoyingly invincible Tide are back, and they're likely still a little steamed at the only team that played them within single digits last season. The Gators are likely to take a step back this year now that they're fresh out of juggernaut Kyles. As for Bama, well, they seemingly lost a whole starting NFL team's worth of talent from last year's team, even with a free year of eligibility and NIL money waiting for them in Tuscaloosa this season, but they haven't slowed down. The Tide continue to rebuild at a level that Ohio State can only dream at (just don't look up their leading receiver). Then again, Clemson already lost this year, and Ohio State already lost...maybe Bama could...no. Just no. BbaM (Bama by a Million) until further notice. Bama: 34--UF: 20

Schweinfurth: Is there really any thought that Bama wins this game by a million. Florida is a top half SEC team, but there is the top few teams in the SEC, a gulf that dwarfs the Pacific Ocean, and then Bama. Florida has some good players to keep it close for a half, maybe, but Bama wins this going away. Bama: 35--UF: 20
Seeberg:  Honestly I should dig into this game more, but, I mean...it's Bama.  Home crowd might keep the Gators around but, I mean...it's Bama.  You get the idea.  Bama: 42--UF: 17

Auburn Tigers @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Draper: Imagine my surprise with an SEC team travelling to a home site outside of the footprint...let alone against a ranked team.  The question is: is Penn State really a top program at this point or was the snoozer in Madison simply noise? I honestly have no faith in the Lions long term outcomes, but I know very little about Auburn.  For this game, an additional question is the USC issue hanging over James Franklin.  Franklin strikes me as a guy who is good to jump as soon as an opportunity arises. That being said, I think the white out in Happy Valley will be enough to pull out a close win, even with the distractions. Aub: 17--PSU: 20

Hoying: Kudos to Auburn for making the trip out of the deep south for a true road game in Big Ten country. Penn State's already won a road game of their own, storming into Camp Randall in their season opener and escaping with an ugly win. I suppose any win's better than giving the game away in pylon-reaching fashion like they did to open the season against Indiana last year. But I didn't leave the Wisconsin game feeling particularly impressed with the Nittany Lions. Clifford is just not the answer at QB, and the return of Noah Cain hasn't been the shot in the arm that the running game was hoping for either. Auburn was the height of mediocrity in 2020 and got blasted by Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl, and goodness knows I have no faith in BoNix as any kind of catalyst for the Tiger attack, but I can't shake the feeling that Penn State's opening win was more a function of Wisconsin haplessness than any harbinger of great things for the Lions this year. Auburn does just enough to outscore a sluggish Penn State offense. Aub: 17--PSU: 16

Schweinfurth: This is an absolute conference measuring stick for the B1G. Auburn is a middle of the pack SEC team, and it would be really bad for the B1G for Penn State to lose this one. The Lions have a very good defense, but Sean Clifford is the limiting factor on this team. I really can see this being a QBLOLZ game, because BoNix and Clifford just make dumb decisions sometimes. In the end, I'll take the White Out and Doctson making the play for the win. Aub: 14--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  How is Bo Nix still at Auburn?  I feel like he's been there about as long as Aaron Craft suited up on the hardwood for the scarlet and gray.  In any event, we've got two supposedly elite quarterbacks with a stable of "meh" around them battling this one out.  The Tigers have demolished two lousy opponents thus far but the Nittany Lions have been tested, squeaking out a win in Madison.  Things may be starting to get stale for Franklin in Happy Valley, and the allure of his home state Trojans are calling.  A win here probably gets him another couple hundred thousand a year when he bolts.  Seems like good enough motivation to me.  Aub: 16--PSU: 24

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: Whee....no one cares! What's weird is there was all this talk of issues in the desert, but Herm apparently just plays to win the game and doesn't care about off field issues.  BYU had a nice last week and return home to glory.  They're riding high and I think the wave continues.  Cougs nip the Devils.  ASU: 28--BYU: 30

Hoying: You didn't know this was a ranked matchup, did you? Maybe you didn't stay up late enough last week to see BYU take it to their Holy War rivals to break a 9-year streak of futility in that series. I don't blame you; I wanted to go to bed around 4 PM last Saturday too. Why is Arizona State ranked? I don't know; it's hard to find 25 teams good enough to put on the ballot. You can tell the pollsters are desperate, as they're still ranking teams like Miami, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Anyway, BYU is making its penultimate Pac-12 tour before it joins the big(ish) boys of the Big 12 in 2023, and the Cougars are still underdogs in this one after dispatching Arizona and Utah to start the season. What have the Sun Devils done to inspire such confidence? Blow out UNLV? I know the Cougs don't have Zach Wilson anymore but his absence doesn't seem to be slowing them down. BYU rides the disrespekt train to a 3rd straight win over the Pac-12. ASU: 24--BYU: 27

Schweinfurth: Yay, Pac-12 After Dark No One Cares Game of the week! Yea these two are ranked, but I just can't steel myself to stay up that late on Saturday night for PAC-12 ROFL. Let's go with BYU here. ASU: 27--BYU: 30
Seeberg:  Both teams have looked decent thus far with the Cougars posting the most noteworthy win, beating their in-state rivals the Utes last week.  The Sun Devils, a la our Buckeyes, have put up a lot of yards but have struggled to pay off those drives with touchdowns, settling for 5 FGs in the first 2 weeks of the season despite an excellent rushing attack.  Too many FGs against a higher quality opponent may very well be their undoing (looking at you, Tressel vs. Texas in 2005).  The Cougars sneak out another resume-boosting W.  ASU: 23--BYU: 27

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: It's been 3 years since the Scarlet and Gray came to the Shoe to lick their wounds in season.  There is a real question of how the team will respond.  The media storm of the 'unimaginable upset' by the 11th ranked team in the nation (no matter how crazy narrative is) could have lasting repercussions.  I think Day is going to be successful in motivating the troops after a loss, but we haven't seen it yet.  Much will fall on the shoulders of CJ Stroud and the defense.  Will the storm surrounding Coach Coombs linger? I have faith that Day will right the ship and move forward.  The offense will be (and was) fine --not great, but fine-- last week.  The defense needs fixing, and that's not a simple change.  Expect the growing pains to continue on defense, but this week should be a nice 'get-right' game.  The line gets some pressure (finally) and makes for a smooth outing.  Tulsa: 17--OSU: 52
Hoying: Good luck figuring out the Golden Hurricane. They opened the season by losing to UC Davis, then turned around and played Oklahoma State to a standstill. Hmm...who else looked like garbage week one and then turned completely around for a road game against a marquee opponent...Should the Buckeyes be worried about Tulsa? The way they're mismanaging their (admittedly undeveloped) defensive personnel, the Buckeyes should be afraid of any team that can move the ball. Also, the run game's not working, and while Stroud is looking better than a freshman QB usually has any right to, we're in the age of Tua and Trevor and all kinds of first-year phenoms, and CJ just hasn't hit that transcendent level yet. This team has some serious soul-searching to do over the next couple of weeks before Big Ten season restarts, and it doesn't look like there are going to be any gimme games in the East this year. The rebuild starts now. Don't embarrass us again. Tulsa: 24--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: What a mess. The Buckeyes were absolutely out coached and out schemed last week. This makes the second time in three games that the Bucks have no answer running a cover-3 shell with no creativity in the front seven. This MUST change. Nothing allows for the type of changes that need to be made like two straight over matched opponents. Look, I'm not delusional. This defense is does not have the players we are used to on the d-line and in the secondary. It will take a few weeks to get the D right, but why not try a few things? Tulsa is going to score a bit. It's just what this defense has done lately. With that said, there shouldn't be a match up Tulsa can win when Ohio State has the ball. Ryan Day is going to bludgeon Tulsa with Williams and Henderson early and take the top off with Wilson and Olave late. Get right. Get some confidence and move on to Akron. Tulsa: 21--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Well, welcome to 2018.  And no, it's not 2014 Ohio State that lost a marquee matchup week 2, took a few weeks more to find their stride, and peaked at the perfect time.  This is 2018 we-better-outscore-everyone mode.  Mediocre schemes can be overcome with elite personnel.  Mediocre personnel can be elevated with great schemes that put them in consistently correct positions.  We have neither.  On the other side of things, 615 yards of offense last week looked great, but red zone play calling continues to be an issue.  CJ actually isn't all too bad.  He's not making it through a ton of progressions yet (nor should he as a second-week starting QB), but he does hang in the pocket well and doesn't bolt immediately.  The accuracy as compared to Fields or Haskins, however, just isn't there yet.  The run scheme needs more diversity.  No counters/misdirections and CJ isn't pulling the ball to run either (also a la 2018 Haskins) despite seeming a capable runner.  The big run Miyan Williams had 2 weeks ago?  It was a mistake, he was supposed to go left with the entire line but heard the call wrong and went right where nobody was home.  Even accidental misdirection helps.  Find some run diversity, find ANY diversity with the defensive scheme, and get some mojo going before conference play resumes.  Tulsa: 20--OSU: 49

Upset Special
Draper: Fresno State over UCLA
Hoying: Purdue over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Michigan State over Miami
Seeberg:  Tulane over Ole Miss

Fix it! Fix it! Fix it!

Week 2: Duck Soup

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 5-1 (1-0 upset)
1.) Draper 5-1 (0-1 upset)
3.) Hoying 4-2 (1-0 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 4-2 (0-1 upset)

Intro text here

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: If you like punts, low scores, questionable decisions, and corn, this is the game for you. The Cy-Hawk has always been one of the most 'meh' national rivalry games out there (so much so that there is a much better name). This was supposed to be the year of the Clone, but the Hawkeyes are my sneaky B1G West pick.  They easily dispatched the Hoosiers last week, while ISU sleepwalked through UNI.  I think Ferentz's squad has what it takes to be the surprise team of the year and they keep it going.  Pain in Ames is the norm so sign that contract extension Kirk.  Maybe Matt Campbell can find solace in a lower program like Michigan in the near future.  Iowa: 20--ISU: 17 

Hoying: Welcome to the most Iowa of Iowa games, a game so intricately tied up in Hawkeye State identity that the last iteration featured a literal punt to win to clinch the game for Kirk Ferentz's squad. Iowa State doesn't win the Cy-Hawk trophy very often, outside of a weird 5-year stretch that climaxed in screwing the Hawkeyes out of the 2002 National Championship (thanks again, ISU). Most of the time Iowa State loses because they suck, but that seems not to be the case this year. The 'Clones are ranked in the top ten going into this matchup for the first time ever, and only the second time as a ranked team at all. And they usually play Iowa close even when they're just struggling for bowl eligibility. Last year the Cyclones had by far their most successful season ever, culminating with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon, but they looked like poo against Northern Iowa last week. Is there any reason to expect last year's magic to continue? The 'Clones were decent on both sides of the ball last year and still have a lot of their key pieces intact, including QB Brock Purdy, so anything is possible. As for the Hawkeyes, they had their own slow start and strong finish last year, and unleashed hell on the trendy Big Ten dark horse Indiana Hoosiers last week. Yeah, there were two pick sixes to pad the victory margin, but do you remember what Michael Penix did to Ohio State last year? He did absolutely none of that against Iowa. If the Hawkeyes can stop a high-flying Hoosier attack at full strength, I think they can stop Iowa State as well. Iowa: 24--ISU: 20

Schweinfurth: El Assico is a top ten matchup! I think Iowa State got caught looking ahead next week. Don't look past the fact that Iowa had to play a conference game last week. I'll take the Cyclones. Iowa: 17--ISU: 24
Seeberg:  This is an intriguing matchup.  The debate here is how much stock you really want to put into week one.  The Cyclones are a popular sleeper pick to make the playoff (not sure if starting #7 counts as a sleeper?) but struggled against Northern Iowa, an FCS squad that routinely plays the big boys tough.  Iowa's 34-6 beatdown of overrated Indiana (when was the last time that adjective applied to their FOOTball team??) looks good, but not only were the Hoosiers overvalued, aside from a couple flukey pick 6's the game didn't feel all that dominant by the Hawkeyes (see:  303 total yards to 233).  Still, Iowa State struggled to score in their opener, and the Hawkeyes' D is absolutely legit.  This may not be the game that's the belle of the ball this week, but football purists (read:  old guys) will enjoy the grind.  Hawkeyes clamp down and get the rivalry W.  Iowa: 20 -- ISU: 13

Washington Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Who's excited for this clunker? Let's be honest: would anyone be surprised is Michigan laid an egg and Washington remembered how to play football? I wouldn't be shocked, but that's not the expectation.  Jim Harbaugh has been really good in the meaningless games that 'feel' important.  The shine was removed by the Grizz, but Washington is still a living breathing team.  I think the Huskies make a game out of this since everyone will have written them off, but this is the type of big stage game that Michigan wins (a dumb one).  UW: 24--UM: 30
Hoying: Many had this game circled as a possible (probable?) loss for the Wolverines before the season started, but that was before the Huskies lost to Montana of all teams. Nine months to get ready for an FCS opponent and you come up with 7 points. This is a real torch and pitchfork game for the Wolverines. Losing to terrible Michigan State last year would normally have brought out the lynch mobs for Harbaugh, but old Jimmy weaseled out of it with the pandemicmonium excuse. Lose to Washington, though, and the goodwill will likely run out. The Wolverines looked good in their opener, and while we've seen fake good September Michigan before, I don't think a team that threw 3 picks against Montana is going to be the one to expose the Wolverines. UW: 17--UM: 27

Schweinfurth: Washington is not good (see losing to a FCS team). That type of loss, can send a team reeling for a couple weeks. TTUN should win easily. UW: 14--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Such a weird weekend.  Two Pac-12 teams travel east to take on B1G squads.  The cross-country trek rarely helps these teams out.  Though to be fair, before last weekend I still would've taken the Huskies in this one.  After an awful offensive output against Montana of all teams, however, that tune has changed.  The Wolverines looked downright competent last week, even on offense!  Their thrashing of a run-of-the-mill in-state MAC opponent turned heads- which is telling of the current state of the program but, at minimum, a positive start.  Maybe the Huskies were lulled to sleep by their FCS opponent week one and prepping for the maize and blue week two?  Perhaps.  Still, with even a semi-reasonable offensive unit the Ann Arbor A-holes should be a 9 or 10-win team.  Tough to imagine a team that managed a whopping 7 points against Montana scoring enough in the big house to win.  I'll take the home team *cringe*.  WASH: 17-- UM: 31

Oregon Ducks @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: My 3 questions last week were: Stroud, running attack, and pass defense.  I'd rate them A-, B+, and C.  The pass defense is still an issue but it seemed like we were trotting out a whole new squad (which we were).  The main question this week is can we score without the big explosive play?  We didn't grind any scoring drives last week because we didn't have to.  I think we'll still get some explosion from Olave, Wilson, and WIlliams, but it will be interesting to see Stroud in a short field.  I honestly know little about Oregon, but I'm hopeful that the OSU pass rush will get a little more pressure without facing 8 offensive lineman. Thibideoux could make things interesting, but the Buckeye Oline held strong last week.  I'm optimistic that the return to the Shoe will yield Buckeye goodness, even if there is a little hiccup now and then.  Ore: 24--OSU: 38
Hoying: So how good did the Buckeyes look last weekend? The offense was explosive, racking up their highest yardage per play in program history. I would still like to see what they can do in the red zone, as the Buckeyes' last two non-Alabama losses were built largely on struggles inside the 20. I'm also ready for Teague to finally be put to pasture to make way for the new fellas. Love the kid, but Williams and Henderson just have a burst that he doesn't. As for the defense, well, it's a journey, one that might be helped if we had anyone in the back 7 with any experience. Fortunately, like Minnesota, Oregon is a run-first team, which means that the Silver Bullets should be able to lean heavily on another stellar set of big nasties up front. There's no Justin Herbert or Marcus Mariota to harass the Buckeye secondary this time. The recipe for success is simple: run the ball and stop the run. Sprinkle in some Stroud to keep them honest. Ohio State is built to succeed under these conditions. Buckeyes make it 10-0 against the Ducks. Ore: 24 OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: The Buckeye defense isn't as bad as everyone thinks. They have trouble stopping one pass play that Minnesota ran over, and over and Mo Ibraham is a beast. With that said, the Buckeye offense is just too explosive for most teams to hang. Thibodeaux being banged up certainly won't help the Ducks chances here. First game in front of the home fans in over 600 days? Forget about it, Bucks win big: Ore: 21--OSU: 42
Seeberg:  Disclaimer:  I will be in the stands for this one.  I was also in the stands the last time these two played and, well...yeah that went well didn't it?  I've seen several outlets talking about how badly CJ Stroud played in the first half last week.  I didn't see it.  His one pick was a correct read to an open receiver that was just thrown behind him (and tipped).  He didn't force throws or get rattled and bolt out of the pocket immediately.  Nor did he need to:  The offensive line was incredible and the rushing game went for 8 yards a carry.  The Ducks' one-man wrecking crew DE Thibodeaux will not be healthy either, trying to rehab a sprained ankle during their lackluster one-score win over Fresno State to open the season.  I also see nothing resembling an Ibrahim-caliber RB on their roster.  The Silver Bullets, specifically the back 7, still have lots of work to do, and getting some guys healthy in the secondary will help as well (early indications are that Proctor will play but Banks' status is still up in the air).  I also thought Ronnie Hickman looked good as the bullet.  A bit undersized but an excellent tackler who plays with good leverage and keeps the game in front of him.  It may be close early again, but all signs point to a solid, workman like W.  Score prediction purely for nostalgia.  DUCKS: 20-- OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Appalachan State over Miami (App State has good luck vs. UM)
Hoying: BYU over Utah
Schweinfurth: Stanford over USC
Seeberg:  Toledo over Notre Dame

Week 1: Stroud. Stroud. Let It All Out.

Buckeye football is back in a B1G way after another crushing defeat in the Playoff. And it has all of those great season opening features...a road game...at a conference opponent...on a Thursday...well, Buckeye football is back at least, with no double false starts this time. And the funny thing is, a Thursday kickoff actually helps avoid overstimulation on a surprisingly crowded field of ranked week 1 Saturday matchups. Yes, the preseason rankings don't matter, but don't be surprised if these games have meaningful consequences down the stretch this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: A nice B1G match to start the 2021 season.  How much do I know about these teams?  Well, nothing really.  Neither had seasons to remember last year, and I think both will finish in the top 5 of the conference this year (well behind #1).  Bucky's at home so I'll roll with them in Camp Randall.  Mertz needs to play smart ball and let the defense work.  PSU: 17 -- UW: 24
Hoying: Don't let the W-L record fool you. Penn State didn't really suck last year. True, their 4 wins all came against awful teams (hi, Michigan), but they Franklined away the season opener to Indiana and actually played Ohio State tough...once the game was over. Wisconsin was another strange case. Remember when QB Graham Mertz was going to replace Justin Fields as the B1G's premier passer after last year's season opener? Playing Illinois: good for what ails ya. Then more global and severe problems started ailing the Badgers and they played all of 5 more conference games down the stretch (*clears throat* *looks down*). You could flash any two numbers before my eyes and I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the score of this game, with either team coming out on top. Wisconsin seems to be a bit stronger at all the key positions (except WR, Jahan Dotson is the real deal) and I think they'll slightly have the edge in this one. PSU: 20--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: To be honest, I'm not sure what each team really has. Both return starting QBs and both teams had fairly disappointing seasons last year. The Lions do have home run threat Dotson back and that should be enough to keep it close. Camp Randall and the Badger fans will most likely be the difference this year. This should be a fun one to watch. PSU: 21--UW: 24
Seeberg:  The B1G is pulling out ALL the stops this season!  If Bucky and Herky stumble early, the power dynamic will be even more laughably tilted towards the east in the conference.  Fortunately for the west, both west teams get to host these surprisingly entertaining week one matchups.  If enough Badger fans can stay upright *hiccup* to make it to Jump Around, they should outlast a very run-of-the-mill PSU team this year.  PSU: 16--UW: 27

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Miami Hurricanes

Draper: Miami is this year's early season sacrificial top 10 team to the altar of Saban.  I'll give the Tide credit for grabbing these (neutral site) games against 'top' opponents every year.  One would think that losing an entire NFL team (essentially) would be problematic, but the difference between the haves and havenots is enormous.  Miami's only hope is for D'Eriq King to be super special and vault to the top of the early season Heisman rankings.  I'm just not seeing it.  Death....taxes...and Bama.  Bama: 48 -- Miami: 27
Hoying: 2017 Florida State. 2016 USC. 2015 Wisconsin. 2012 Michigan. 2009 Virginia Tech. For the last decade-plus, Alabama has been playing big time opponents in season openers at stupid neutral sites, and the Tide have been blasting them all. Nobody prepares his team for a season's start like Nick Saban, and I don't expect anything to change this year. I guess if you're going to challenge Alabama this season, the first game might be your best option as the Tide are breaking in new starters across their offense (and a new offensive coordinator). But you need to be at least a Florida / Texas A&M level to make the Tide sweat. Miami is still nowhere near that point. Bama: 34--Miami: 17
Schweinfurth: This is not 80s/90s/early 2000s Miami. They are an okay ACC program, but they don't stack up to the Alabama Death Machine. I don't think there is much to break down here. Bama by a million. Bama: 45 --Miami: 13
Seeberg:  Football is back in its truest form!  Fans and mayhem will ensue!  Not here, however.  The Tide were an absolute juggernaut last season, even by their standards.  COVID or not they were winning it all in 2020.  Will they take a step back?  Sure.  However, it would have to be a Herculean stride backwards to pull them even with the once-powerful Hurricanes.  To steal the other Steven's line, Bama by a million.  Bama: 42 -- Miami: 17

 

Indiana Hoosiers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: I'm calling my shot that Indiana is going to be....overrated this year.  They have a phenomenal Penix at QB, but the injuries will be a problem.  How do the Hoosiers deal with expectations? I'm not holding my breath.  Honestly, they have some nice talent, but some key receivers have left for the league AND the 'underdog' status is gone.  Iowa has a chance to be sneaky in the B1G West.  One can count on Ferentz to finishing in the 8-9 win territory most years.  I think he inks another 10 year contract after knocking IU off the pedestal.  IU: 20 -- Iowa: 24
Hoying: How much of last year was Indiana being good, and how much was the Big Ten East being awful? Sure, they were able to put a late scare into the Buckeyes, but that was basically their Super Bowl last year (and Indiana plays the Buckeyes weirdly close a lot). The Penix-to-Fryfogle connection that exposed the Buckeye back 7 in a big way will be back to tear up defenses again, but there's still no rushing attack. And that's a problem against a stout defensive team like the Hawkeyes. The Hoosiers were able to win one knock-down ugly no-offense game last year (in Camp Randall, no less), but I'm not sure if lightning can strike again. My general strategy in 2021 will be to fade teams that were weirdly good in 2020 (ESPECIALLY Group of 5 teams, see below), and there's no better place to start than in Bloomington. IU: 20--Iowa: 21
Schweinfurth: Indiana may be the second best team in the B1G East. Let that set in. Tom Allen's attacking defense gave the Buckeyes (and other teams) fits. The Hoosiers can score in a hurry, but the issue may be the time the defense is on the field. Iowa is going to grind this game down (think Wisconsin light). I'm not sold on Iowa, but their style lends to a close game. Indiana wins a close one (I can't believe I picked the Hoosiers). 

IU: 31--Iowa:20
Seeberg:  Multiple REALLY good matchups for week one in the B1G.  My how times have changed.  Gone are the days when middling Big Ten teams (read:  usually Indiana, until recently) scheduled a random MAC team and hoped it wasn't that once-a-decade MAC team that goes 11-1 with a crazy talented team (I see you Ben Roethlisberger at Miami) or a decent roster with an excellent up-and-coming coach (think Urban at BGSU).  In any event, there's a new word surrounding the Hoosier basketball football program in 2021:  Expectations.  Iowa, meanwhile, returns a lot of talent at LB, TE (duh) and RB and is probably the second-best team in the west, which means when Wisconsin inevitably lays their one egg per season the Hawkeyes just might slip to Indy.  I think both squads are good, and nobody has any idea what to make of last season, so I simply have to go with the program I trust more.  Enjoy your 38th B1G Coach of the Year trophy Kirk.  IU: 24 --  Iowa: 31

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Can Sark bring Texas back? I don't know, but they should beat a team called the Rajun' Cajuns.  UL is a HOT group of 5 pick this year to potentially run the table, but the schedule (for a Group of 5 team) is brutal.  Honestly, the NIL deal should give Texas a leg back into the big leagues shortly (no shortage of money in Austin), but this is a must win (or rather 'can't lose') game for the Longhorns.  Yeah, there is a world in which UL is more talented than UT (maybe), but Texas needs to avoid faceplanting this early.  Also, don't they know not to schedule non-conference teams with a pulse? How can they be in the SEC? Closer than the experts think.  UL: 27 -- UT: 30
Hoying: Ah, a nice rematch of the game that kicked LSU's magical 2019 run into gear...wait a minute, which Louisiana has a ranked matchup this week? Why is a team like Louisiana ranked? It's because they snakebit Iowa State to open last season and then managed to dodge another Power 5 team for the rest of their season, including the bowl game. No more impressive wins, but a nice 3-point loss against Coastal Carolina. I think a lot of Group of 5 teams who missed out on a lot of nonconference action last year against Power 5 opponents and ended up with inflated records as a result (not their fault, but call a spade a spade) are going to be supremely overvalued this season. And this game is a great chance to find some value. Texas is breaking in a new QB, but 7-Win Sark is back in the head coach's chair after a successful stint in the Nick Saban Rehabilitation Clinic. Did you see what his offense did to Ohio State in last year's national championship? Do you really think he can't do the same to Louisiana? Look for the Big 12 not to repeat last year's atrocious 0-3 campaign against the Sun Belt. UL: 20--UT: 34
Schweinfurth: Texas isn't back, but they should win this by two scores. UL: 20--UT: 42
Seeberg:  I must confess, I'm not entire certain why either of these teams is ranked.  I do know the Longhorns are starting a redshirt freshman at QB but the dreaded "rotation" word is being used as they plan to give the backup QB some time as well (see:  Germaine and Jackson...*facepalm*).  If an admittedly excellent offensive mind like Sark can't settle on a QB either they're both equally good (unlikely) or equally...meh?  Still, the talent disparity has to be enough for the Longhorns to wear UL down in the second half.  Wouldn't surprise me a ton to see this the opposite way, but Texas survives and proves they are at least not not back.  UL: 24--UT: 35

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: This is the game of the year (outside of playoffs/conference championships....and maybe even then!).  It's really hard to kick off the year with a blockbuster matchup in week one because the teams almost always make mistakes early and often.  Many times it comes down to conditioning and mental toughness.  Both of these teams are easily in the contender group (see Bama, Clemson, OU, OSU, Georgia....no others need apply) and will remain so regardless of the outcome of this game.  For Georgia, if not now, when?  JT Daniels at QB, a star studded roster, and a nasty defense highlight the Dawgs.  They need to make a statement early to set the tone that this isn't the UGA that chokes every year (wait for iiiiiiiiiiiitttttt).  DJ Ukulele (I know) looked quite good against ND last year, but this time, he's THE guy.  Also, the Dawg defense is coming. I think UGA breaks through and wins the SEC.  It all depends when the 'oopsie' happens.  No no no...not today.  UGA: 30--Clem: 20
Hoying: The last time you saw Clemson they were getting ripped to shreds (to shreds, you say) by Justin Fields and Trey Sermon. What have we learned from this? (1) don't go out of your way to tick off an Ohio State team that already has you at #1 on the hit list, and (2) maybe Clemson's defense isn't quite as good as they once were. This is the same Clemson team that gave up 47 to Notre Dame (OK, only 33 in regulation, but still). Or maybe they just had an off year and are ready to go back to shutdown quality. It's not like Georgia was all that special last year, either. They played Alabama close for a half before getting smacked, and then took it on the other cheek against Florida. And they needed a lot of help from the Bearcats to sneak a Peach Bowl win and save the season from being a total disappointment. Everyone seems to be salivating over Georgia's JT Daniels, and I just don't see it yet. Two good games against Mississippi State and Missouri do not a superstar make, and we've all seen Georgia's history at developing quarterbacks under Kirby Smart. Clemson has a much better signal caller in DJ Uiagalelei. The good news for Georgia is they'll have numerous additional opportunities to rack up quality wins this year. The bad news is their error margin just went to zero (stupid 2018 final Playoff rankings be damned). UGA: 30--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Wow this is such a great week 1 match up. Two of the few schools that have QBs who took meaningful snaps last year. I will say this, the Buckeyes exposed the Clemson defense last year. Can Georgia do the same? I'm not so sure. The Dawgs just down have the same fire power on the outside that the Buckeyes had/have. However, no Travis Etiene or Trevor Lawrence will be a big factor here. I think Georgia wins.  

UGA: 24--Clem: 17
Seeberg:  An absolutely massive week one tilt...made borderline irrelevant with the 4-team playoff.  Still a compelling matchup.  My gut tells me Clemson should win this game...if it weren't for the Sugar Bowl last year.  The Buckeyes absolutely curb-stomped Dabo and Co and exposed some significant flaws in the process, particularly on D.  With Lawrence and Etienne gone, the margin for error for Clemson's defense is that much smaller.  The Bucks laid the blueprint, The Dawgs just have to follow it.  It's week one, so it's unlikely UGA will be as in sync as Fields was last season, and they may not have quite the weapons either, but it should be enough to slip out of Charlotte with a resume-bolstering W.  UGA: 31--Clem: 21

Thursday "Special": THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: Trap game in week 1!! At least that's what I hear.  I'm simply not buying it.  The Buckeyes are every bit the machine that Bama and Clemson are and the reload moniker works just fine. The WR corps for the Bucks is phenomenal and should make for some explosive plays.  There are 3 things to pay close attention to in this game: 1)  How does Stroud look? (what's the drop off is from Fields?--there has to be some, but I doubt it's immense), 2) Who takes over at RB? and 3) can the passing defense do better than a wet paperbag?  I'm thinking: 1) quite good, 2) RB by committee with Henderson showing the explosion, and 3)...........better than last year I hope?  I have a feeling that Minnesota will score more than I'd like to see, but the offense will do their thing and get the job done.  OSU: 45 -- Minn: 27  
Hoying: Do you remember the last time Ohio State played a stupid season-opening Thursday night conference road game? That's right, it was 2017 Indiana, AKA the J.K. All Day coming out party. The Buckeyes leaned heavily on the true freshman to overcome a rocky first half and cruise to a victory. I feel like we might see a similar script this year, if brand spanking new RB TreVeyon Henderson is able to show some flashes of brilliance (and Master Teague is still his 2020 bowling ball self). With an experienced run-blocking group like the Buckeyes are sporting this year, there's no need to rely on Stroud to do too much early in this one, even with the all-galaxy all-time receiving corps that he has to play around with. As for the Buckeye defense, well, they can't be any worse than last year, right? Yeah, Tanner Morgan and Mohamed Ibrahim are still in Minneapolis to anchor the Gopher backfield, but WR Rashod Bateman isn't streaking down the field any longer. And the Silver Bullet D-Line is only getting nastier as Haskell Garrett, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith continue to get stronger and Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau add even more star power. Remember what an awful Michigan team did to these clowns in week one last year. I would have preferred a more cupcakey game to start the season off on the easy foot, but the Goofers will do for now. OSU: 34--Minn: 17
Schweinfurth: Row, Row, Row your football team, eh PJ? The Row Boaters had some great momentum until all of the COVID madness last year. Mo Ibrahim is the real deal at running back and Tanner Morgan is a good system QB for what Boat Captain Fleck wants to do. That Gopher defense though...poo. Ohio State is so talented on offense, especially at receiver. Olave is so smooth and Wilson is a beast. I expect Day to draw up a pretty simplistic offense (think lots of crossing routes and power runs) to get Stroud settled in. The Bucks have a lot of question marks, but this is a good match up to get plays on tape. Bucks should cover this one and put a nice sized hole in PJ's row boat. OSU: 45--Minn: 20
Seeberg:  I, for one, am both happy and worried that this game is week one.  Toss it between, say, PSU and MSU and it might get lost a bit, but everyone should be sharp and focused for the first game, especially a night game on the road.  Again, 2020 is an absolute wash.  Do we get 2019 Minnesota with double digit wins?  The QB is still here and in today's college football a 3-year starter is nothing to sneeze at.  Do we get last season's 3-4 Gopher squad?  Who knows.  I do know they return 20(!!!) starters which is almost unheard of.  The Bucks have an almost laughable amount of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and, even with the rough loss of Tyler Friday, a deep and athletic front 4 on D.  It's all about the back seven on D and the trigger man on O.  I don't trust either much...but I trust the remaining units enough to get the scarlet and gray to right around the spread number.  Bucks pull away late then get an extra couple days to prep for the Ducks.  OSU: 38--Minn: 24

Upset Special
Draper: Florida State over Notre Dame
Hoying: Virginia Tech over North Carolina
Schweinfurth: Northern Iowa over Iowa State
Seeberg:  UCLA over LSU

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - BUCKEYES VS. BAMA

Final Post-Bowl Standings:

1.) Draper 30-10 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 30-10 (1-7 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 29-11 (2-6 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: This whole year has been about erasing the pain of the Clemson loss last year.  Does this Buckeye team has the fire and will for one more win against, I hate to say it, but a team on another level offensively than Clemson?  The truth is that there have been 4 teams in the Playoff Era on a different plane: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.  Alabama can almost be argued to be in a territory by itself.  However, this year's Alabama squad has a different core makeup than those of the past.  Saban was always able to win with a stalwart shutdown defense and an offense that ran the ball and didn't make mistakes.  Now, we see an offensive juggernaut coupled with an OK-mediocre defense.  The Bama offense led by Jones, Smith, and Harris (and maybe Waddle) is nearly unstoppable.  3 of those listed are NFL first rounders now and that doesn't even mention the line that Bama is known for.  Couple that with the sentience that the Tide have gained by applying smart analytic decision making, and it's no bueno for the other team.  While this seems like a non-starter for the Buckeyes, OSU hasn't been too shabby on offense when given the chance with a better QB than Bama, very close if not equal skill positions and lines.  The slight difference is the consistency of the Bama offense.  But consistency doesn't matter here.  I'm all about variance exploitation, but the Bucks HAVE to hit on all cylinders like in the Sugar Bowl.  This may be the highest over/under in a title game, but I'd still take the over in this perceived shootout.  The Bucks need to punch early and often on offense and not fall behind.  Bama thrives on winning games before the coin flip whereas the Bucks win in the 4th.  If it's close in the 4th, the hours of blood, sweat, and tears in the weight room before the season started show up.  Fields is out to show that last week was the norm and he's ready for prime time. When in doubt, take the better QB.  Go Bucks and bring home #9. OSU: 48--Bama: 45
Hoying: I look at these teams on paper and I see a slightly better passing attack for Alabama, a significantly better rushing attack for Ohio State (just like we all thought in October, right?), a slightly better run defense for the Buckeyes, and, well, the loss of Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, and Jordan Fuller being felt particularly hard this season. I look at Alabama's red zone effectiveness in contrast to Ohio State's inexplicable struggles. I think about the players, the ones we still don't know about, that will not be suiting up for the Scarlet and Gray because of the 'rona, while Alabama has been almost entirely spared this season. I get that sense of lingering dread that caused me to pick Clemson to win the Sugar Bowl by multiple scores. But then I look at both of these teams a little more closely. I see that the ceiling is higher for Ohio State than it is for Alabama. Between the two teams, Ohio State has by far the best win, and it was the game they just played, against the best opponent either team has faced this year. Yeah, what Alabama did to Notre Dame might have been more methodical, and they were never, ever going to lose that game, but that was Notre Dame. Ohio State just pantsed Clemson, the co-team of the Playoff era with Alabama, in a total team effort. We've seen it again and again in the Meyer/Day era: when these Buckeyes get rolling against top-level competition, they brake for nobody unless they start to lose focus (Iowa, Purdue) or just yeet the game away (Clemson last year). I'm not saying the Bucks can't give away this game against Alabama; they spent the better part of two quarters trying to do just that the last time these teams played. But I don't care if Alabama has played 11 SEC opponents this season and dominated nearly all of them. They haven't played anyone in Ohio State's galaxy (Pawwwwwwwl), and they're due for a rude awakening. The Buckeyes follow up their amazing Sugar Bowl win with a deserving sequel, and complete Nick Saban's first three-year title drought in Tuscaloosa. OSU: 45--Bama: 35
Schweinfurth: Oh my goodness what a season this has been. One needs only to look at what this team has been through this year to realize this is a special Buckeye team: a canceled and restarted season, stop and go games, positive tests, positive tests the Friday before the B1G Championship Game, Fields getting rocked and having one of the best games by an OSU QB. This team has been though so much, and has the calluses to prove it. So now the Buckeyes are looking up at Mount Alabama. Bama has blown through the SEC this year with relatively little resistance. I think the biggest speed bump Bama had was Ole Miss. What that team showed is that you can score a lot of points on the Alabama defense. Yes there is NFL talent on the Bama D, but there is also NFL talent on the Ohio State Offense. When this game was first announced, I asked my colleagues a simple question, "Has Mac Jones been hit in any of his games this year?" I got a resounding no. This will be the key. Hit Mac Jones and make him uncomfortable. The other is limiting the big play. I didn't look this up, but I am going to go with what Chris Fowler said during the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State doesn't give up touchdowns when teams don't get plays of over 20 yards. I will own up to the fact I didn't think the Bucks could beat Clemson. That dragon has been slayed (and exposed to be a clown). The Buckeyes control both lines of scrimmage again, Sermon has a day (another 85 yards through the heart of the south?), Fields shows why he is a top QB prospect and Ohio State writes a storybook ending to a season that could be featured in a 30 for 30. OHIO AGAINST THE WORLD! GO BUCKS, BEAT BAMA! OSU: 49--Bama: 42

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Alabama

1. Underdog Mentality

I said it in 2015 and I'll say it again here. This Ohio State team plays like a different animal when the whole world counts them out. By my count, the Buckeyes haven't lost a game in which they were a big underdog since the game that will not be named closed out the 2011 regular season. They haven't lost much at all, and most of the losses revealed some lack of focus. The Buckeyes aren't going to turtle this away like they did against Michigan State in 2015, and they aren't going to get punked and roll over like they did against Iowa in 2017 or Purdue in 2018. Especially when they have such delicious bulletin board material to work with. Some of it writes itself: Alabama had the Heisman winner, three finalists overall, and swept the offensive awards (other than TE). Notably, the Tide OL won the Joe Moore award, an award for which the slobs were not even finalists. You look at the way the Buckeye O-line has played in their last three games and tell me if they're lacking in skill or motivation. Add to that the random Internet idiots and specific Internet idiots (hi, baby girl Saban) crowing about how Ohio State is trying to duck this game and how they shouldn't have made the Playoff in the first place. Even Nick himself had the Buckeyes at #5 in his final ballot. If Ohio State comes out fully focused and locked in, nobody is beating them.

2. So Fresh and So Clean, Clean

We've all had the pleasure of hearing nonstop over the last month or so (or the whole season) that a team that plays 6 regular season games doesn't belong in the Playoff. The Buckeyes flattened the last chump who put his coaches' poll ballot where his mouth was, but Dabo did have a point. You play fewer games, you amass fewer injuries. True, the Buckeyes lost nickel corner Cameron Brown in their win over Penn State, but Alabama lost a receiver who might be better than the Heisman winner (Jaylen Waddle) and the All-American anchor of what is apparently the nation's best O-line (Landon Dickerson), and oh yeah, their nickel corner (Malachi Moore). Who knows which of these guys, if any, will play, but Dickerson at least seems to be out for Monday's game. That could be a huge problem going against a Buckeye D-line that lived in the backfield and made life miserable for Trevor Lawrence in New Orleans. At least Lawrence could use his mobility to escape the onslaught. The same can't be said for another Playoff QB...

3. Stonewall Mac

Three of the four starting quarterbacks in this year's Playoff could plausibly be described as dual threats (to varying degrees: Fields > Lawrence > Book). The fourth is definitively not so. To be fair, he finished third in the Heisman voting and probably would have won if Devonta's incredible season didn't siphon off most of his votes, but he is vulnerable to pressure. Mr. Jones is sitting on net +3 yards rushing on the year, and took multiple negative plays against each of Florida and Georgia. And now he faces the best pass rushing D-line he'll see all year, with a few great blitzing linebackers thrown in the mix. Lawrence was excellent at hitting his checkdown man while falling or sprinting backwards; can Mac do the same?

4. Après Sark, le Deluge

It's tough to work two jobs at the same time, especially when both are the all-world consuming vocations of big time top level college football coaching. As you've probably heard, Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian will be coaching the Texas Longhorns as soon as this game is over, and he's taking Alabama OL coach Kyle Flood with him. Now, Bama can churn through top level coordinators like nobody else (who's going to refuse a call from Nick Saban?), but for the moment the Tide have an offensive staff with one foot out the door and knowing full well that they have their work cut out for them in Austin. If they're not on their A game in their swan song, and the Crimson juggernaut starts to look mortal, Alabama could be in serious trouble. Also, don't forget, Sark has been here before, albeit with the script flipped. When Lane Kiffin left just before the end of the 2016 season to go to Florida Atlantic, Sark jumped into the acting OC role for the national championship against Clemson. The Tide did not win that game. The Tide didn't win the 2018 national championship either, after OC Mike Locksley was hired away by the Maryland Terrapins prior to the Playoff but coached through Bama's blowout loss in the championship. Could this be a trend?

5. Games on Film

Dabo famously quipped that Ohio State would be a quick film study, as the Tigers would only need to watch 6 games worth as compared to a normal 12 game season. As it turns out, Clemson might've appreciated a few more opportunities to study the Buckeyes before they got run out of the Superdome. Ryan Day remains an intuitively excellent offensive coach, and while the Buckeye bag of tricks is likely significantly emptier after the Sugar Bowl, I expect Alabama to be left guessing on Monday more than normal. Ohio State, in contrast, has a full season's worth of Alabama game film to analyze. Throw in the fact that Ohio State has been starting all sorts of varied lineups as the year has gone on, and the Buckeyes may have an advantage in the opponent analysis department.

6. Weaksauce D

Huh? you say. Alabama has a weaksauce defense? The Tide have the best Power 5 defense outside of the Big Ten West! They've held seven of their last eight opponents below 20 points! Yes, these are all true, but there's an inconvenient truth regarding these dominating defensive performances: Alabama has been playing bad offenses. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Georgia, and LSU aren't awful, but the only two real offenses Alabama has faced this year were Florida and Ole Miss, and the Tide failed miserably against both of them. Ole Miss hit Alabama with a balanced attack and racked up 647 yards, while Florida managed to stay within a touchdown against the Tide (and might have won without their bonkers end-of-half clock management) despite being unable to do anything on the ground. That's good news for a Buckeye team that just got finished lighting up a very good Clemson secondary and have been basically running the ball at will ever since Trey Sermon took over for Master Teague. The Silver Bullets' struggles have been well documented, but there's no reason not to expect Ohio State's offense to give Bama fits as well.

7. Handling the ACC

What do Clemson and Alabama have in common? Both manhandled Notre Dame at the end of the season, first the Tigers, then the Tide. Alabama slowly strangled the Domers to death after jumping out to a quick lead, whereas Clemson kept pounding on the Irish throughout the game. Could these games provide a clue as to what could happen on Monday? Well, Ohio State just got done playing one of the teams that crushed the Irish this season, and they gave the victor a lovely transitive walloping. If Alabama played Notre Dame about as well as Clemson did, what does that mean for their chances against the Buckeyes on Monday?

8. Heismen Curse

Heisman winners have been hit-or-miss in postseason games over the years. I don't need to remind you that Ohio State's own Archie Griffin and Troy Smith missed out on national championships after winning the award. Three of the last five Heisman winners to play for the title have come up short (Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray), in contrast to the unflappable Heisman winners Joe Burrow and...Alabama's Derrick Henry (hmm). Devonta Smith seems like a humble guy and a real dude overall, and the Heisman celebration tour is decidedly more muted than in prior years, but will his performance suffer? And what of the other finalists? I mentioned in my list of reasons Alabama will win that the Tide have the first trio of top 5 Heisman finishers since 1946 Army, and that the Black Knights won the title that year. Well, I misled you a little. 1946 Army did go 9-0-1, and they did win a share of a title, but that one tie? That was a scoreless tie against Notre Dame, who also went 9-0-1 and won the consensus title that year.

9. Revenge Factor

Revenge factor? Didn't Ohio State win the last time these two teams met? And wasn't that six years ago, when none of the current players were playing for either of these teams? Yes, but there happens to be a player on Ohio State's roster that has seen the Tide before: Justin Fields. Fields, of course, was not the starting QB for the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs that faced Alabama in the SEC Championship (that was Jake Fromm for some unfathomable reason), but he did see some action in that game, tossing one incomplete pass and running the ball three times. You may remember that awful fake punt that essentially gifted the game to the Tide late. Yup, that was Fields (not his fault the play sucked, though). Thankfully, the Ohio State offensive planners are nowhere near the train wreck that is Kirby Smart's staff and Justin should be able to make some magic to avenge a prior lost Playoff spot.

10. As Gold Is Tested by Fire

OK, so neither of these teams has found themselves in a great deal of trouble on the field this season. Alabama had a bit of a problem stopping Ole Miss for two and a half quarters and saw Florida pull within 6 points of a victory late in the SEC title game, and they trailed at half against Georgia, but that was about it. Ohio State, likewise, gave Indiana the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead late, and took 3 quarters to figure out to run the dang ball against Northwestern, but was otherwise never seriously threatened. Off the field, however, it's been a different story. The Buckeyes have seen their schedule modified, cancelled, uncancelled and remodified, cut nearly in half by week-to-week cancellations, become ineligible for the B1G Championship, become re-eligible for the B1G Championship just in time to go, and have generally waited on pins and needles week after week to see whether each Saturday's matchup would be cancelled at the last minute. It must have been exhausting. But the Buckeyes are still standing, still undefeated, just played their best game of the season, and are cleared to play one more. The last two Buckeye national champions have overcome tremendous adversity, whether on or off the field, to claim their crowns. The ones who made it look easy (1996, 1998, 2006, 2019) have always come up just short. 

Ten Reasons Alabama Beats Ohio State

1. Can't Stop Won't Stop

Alabama features the best offense Ohio State has seen since probably 2005 Texas. The 2005 Buckeyes were able to grind the Longhorn attack to a near halt, but that team had the best set of linebackers in school history and sent three DB's to the following year's NFL draft. This year's version of the Buckeyes face a bit more of a pick your poison, as three Bama skill players finished in the top five of the Heisman voting, including the first WR to receive the award since the College Gameday court jester. The last team to put three Heisman finalists in the top five was 1946 Army, who went 9-0-1 and won a national championship. Oh, and the big guys up front making it happen just won the prize for top OL in the nation. Yes, the Tide only put 31 points up on Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl, but that was a Tresselball, slow-roll-your-chump-opponent performance for the ages. Bama now has the luxury of having saved everything they had in the Playoff tank for the Silver Bullets.

2. Primary Target: Secondary

So who is tasked with stopping this unstoppable Crimson onslaught on the back end? A thoroughly average secondary. Criticism of the Buckeye DBs has been a bit overblown this season; they're right in the middle of the pack in terms of YPA and QBR, and their TD : INT ratio of 11 : 7 isn't horrible either. Yes, the Buckeyes give up a ton of yards per game, but that's to be expected when (i) Ohio State scores in a flash and gives their opponents a ton of possessions, and (ii) running the ball against the Buckeye front is completely pointless. That being said, see #1 above. An average defense is not going to make the cut against a passing attack more lethal than last year's Joe Burrow juggernaut. The back seven may have stopped Trevor Lawrence from finding the end zone too often, but he still put up a quiet 400 yards. If Bama's receivers are getting the ball in space, look out.

3. One Game Season (not this one)

In the 1969 season finale, the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes suffered probably the worst loss in team history, a 24-12 upset at the hands of That Team Up North, denying them what would have been a second straight national championship. For the next 12 months, the Buckeyes obsessed over this loss, even having a rug installed in the locker room with the score of the 1969 game printed on it. And sure enough, the Buckeyes avenged their loss to the Wolverines the following season to cap a 9-0 regular season. Then they went to the Rose Bowl and faded down the stretch against the #12 Stanford Indians, narrowly missing out on the national title for a second straight season. The point is, how much of this season has been focused on the national championship, and how much has been a buildup to a revenge game against Clemson? Take a good look at how the Buckeyes played against Northwestern, and then how they looked 2 weeks later against the Tigers. How much of the prep time against the Wildcats was devoted to, perhaps, a different anticipated opponent? And, if so, have the Buckeyes spent any extra time in this truncated season preparing for Alabama? Not likely.

4. Past Perfect + Future Perfect

As stated above, I don't think it's any secret that the Buckeyes were more motivated and prepared for Clemson than any of their other hapless opponents this season. But preparation is meaningless without execution, and Ohio State's execution in the Sugar Bowl was nearly flawless. Sure, there was Fields's pick in the end zone that wiped 3 points off the board, and a couple of misses in coverage, and whatever the Buckeyes were trying to do to slow their own momentum on their first possession, but Clemson was the team crumbling under the pressure, not Ohio State. Think back to the 2014-15 Playoff. Ohio State made boatloads of errors in both the Alabama and Oregon games but was able to pretty much dominate both teams regardless. This year's Alabama team is a whole different beast. The Buckeyes have really only played two complete near-perfect games this year (Michigan State and Clemson...maybe you can throw in Nebraska as well); they're going to need a third to walk away Monday as champions. Alabama merely needs to be very good.

5. Crimson Zone > Scarlet Zone

Why did Ohio State lose the 2019 Fiesta Bowl? There are about 20 answers to that question, but the most glaring issue was the Buckeyes' performance in the red zone. Ohio State reached the red zone on three drives and came away with three field goals. Clemson, contrariwise, scored a touchdown on their only red zone possession. Have the Buckeyes fixed this problem in 2020? No, it has gotten worse. The 2019 Buckeyes actually excelled overall at red zone production throughout the year, with a 78.67% TD rate matched at the Power 5 level only by LSU (exactly matched, eerily enough). This year? The Buckeyes are posting a nasty 64.10% TD rate, and a paltry 76.92% overall scoring rate, in the red zone. That's right, the 2019 Buckeyes were better at scoring TDs in the red zone than the 2020 Buckeyes are at getting any points in the same area. How about the Buckeyes' championship opponent, sporting the nation's top offense? 77.42% TD rate and 91.94% overall scoring rate. And these stats aren't padded against the Citadels and Charleston Southerns of the world, either. The Buckeyes didn't settle for any field goals against Clemson this time, but an interception stole one red zone scoring opportunity, and the Buckeyes would have lost a TD without Skalski's targeting call. Bend but don't break may not be an option for the Silver Bullets on Monday night.

6. Bustin Fields

In the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl, I found myself struck by how much Ohio State's game plan revolved around moving Justin Fields all over the place. Whether on designed runs or rollouts, Fields didn't seem to stay limited to the pocket very often, and I wondered how much his knee injury had limited his (and the Buckeye offense's) true potential in last year's loss to Clemson. Now, once again, we find ourselves wondering how and to what extent Fields is limited after another huge hit. Sure, on Friday, Justin just took a licking and kept on ticking, proving he can still toss darts over the safeties' heads even after his rack of ribs got smoked, but how much is he willing/able to run with the ball if he needs to? Fields's excellent mobility is his most glaring advantage over his counterpart in this game, and it's hard to imagine the Buckeye offense matching the Tide blow for blow with their star QB at less than 100%. And, though Fields is as tough a customer as any who've worn the scarlet and gray, it's not hard to imagine how another hard hit could knock him out of the game for good.

7. Five Below

Unless you start losing star players down the stretch, your team is only going to be strengthened by each additional live-fire rep they can get. And as we've seen this season, the Buckeyes have faced problems in different places on the field (*cough* *secondary*) that they haven't had many opportunities to repair. Alabama has faced 11 different SEC opponents and the #4 team in the country, while Ohio State has only had 7 chances total to learn and progress in real games in this most bizarre of bizarro seasons. And, as stated above, they've looked good start-to-finish in, at most, three of them. Thankfully, two of those were in the last three games the Buckeyes have played, but there was the clunker against Northwestern sandwiched in the middle. It doesn't help when the shortest gap between games in the second half of the season was between the Big Ten Championship and the Sugar Bowl. Alabama perfected their craft by sometime around the Georgia game, which was before Ohio State even saw the field. The Tide, like the Buckeyes, looked vulnerable on championship weekend, but that was the only blip in a stretch that's been longer the entire 2020 Buckeye season. 

8. The Ring King

Ryan Day has been a tremendous success in his 2+ years as Ohio State's head coach, racking up one loss in his first 24 games. But, uh, the guy on the other sideline is no slouch either. All he's done is win five national championships in thirteen years as coach of Alabama, after winning another natty at LSU. He has more wins than any active FBS coach not named Mack Brown (Mack has double his losses), and before last year's blip, his teams finished ranked #1 or #2 four years running, a trend sure to continue this season regardless of Monday's outcome. That being said, his Alabama teams haven't completed an undefeated season since he won it all the first time in 2009.

9. Going Viral

You may be aware that there is a disease that has been causing some slight disruptions in society over the past few months. And its spread hasn't spared the Buckeyes, either. Aside from causing the straight up cancellation of three games on Ohio State's already depleted schedule, the virus has contributed to the Buckeyes fielding some less than complete squads over the past few weeks. A missing Chris Olave against Northwestern here, an absent Zach Harrison against Clemson there, the whole OL gone against Michigan State...it's been an issue. And now rumors swirl of additional players likely to be out against Alabama, including what may be the Silver Bullets' anchor and best player. The Tide, for better or worse, seem to have navigated the pandemic a bit more cleanly, and I haven't seen any reports of any key players in danger of missing Monday's showdown. And speaking of Bama not having problems with missing players...

10. Waddle We Do?

Why wasn't Heisman winner Devonta Smith a finalist in 2019? Because he had to compete with Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs for touches, the latter two of which have been busy this year tearing it up in the NFL. As for Waddle, he may have been outplaying Smith for the first 4 games of the season before he broke his ankle and Smith was suddenly "the guy" for the Alabama offense. And now, after missing the better part of the 2020 season, look who's back at practice and inspiring whispers of playing on Monday night. The Buckeye back seven are already going to have their hands full trying to cover one NFL first round WR; they don't need a second one to get lost in the secondary and bring back nightmares of Penix to Fryfogle and Philyor.