Week 3: Scrubbing the Sheets

Standings:

1.) Draper 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 5-3 (0-2 upset)

Buck up, Buckeye Nation. The last time Ohio State dropped game 2 against a big-name opponent, coming off a disappointing season-ending two game slide, wonderful things followed.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: Big 12 opens with a bang with ...Houston @Texas Tech....oh boy.  The Red Raiders looked to enter the season as the villains of CFB due to Soresby until Lane and TTUN asked them politely to 'hold my beer'.  Now, the Raiders have been somewhat of an after thought. I'm intrigued with Connor Weigman at Houston, but I'm not sure they have what it takes to storm into Lubbock at night and steal a win.  We know very little about these teams as the transfer portals are in full swing, but I like the home team to prevail in a tight conference opener.  Hou: 20--TT: 24
Hoying: How often do you get to do a common opponent analysis as early as week 3? Houston kicked off the season handling Oregon State with relative ease before Texas Tech escaped Corvallis with a 4th quarter comeback. The Tech offense has been in a bit of a stall to start the season, and they don't quite seem to have last year's punishing D-line to support them this year. Houston has been doing work on the ground this season, including good efforts by Texas A&M cast-off QB Connor Weigman (who is just a bit more mobile than his counterpart Will Hammond). This game should tell us a lot about whether last year's surprise 13-0 start by Texas Tech is a flash in the pan or a true new sustainable dynasty like Indiana (still won't ever not be weird). I don't think their defense is good enough this year to make it happen. Hou: 24--TTU: 20

Schweinfurth: I have only read a little bit about these teams. Both are not on my radar right now. A win here could put them back there, but I really don't know much. My gut says Houston, so let's go there. Hou: 28--TTU: 24

Seeberg: I realize it’s only week 3 and there are myriad questions about almost every team in the sport. That said, I genuinely have 0 idea if either of these teams is any good. Remarkably, they already have a common opponent, and both looked… meh(?) against the westernmost OSU, ultimately winning by two scores each. I expected the Red Raiders to be a little better on defense so far. That said, when it feels like a coin flip, go with the home team. UH: 20—TTU: 27

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Louisiana State Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: I don't know how the game is going to go here...but it's going to be an ugly ugly scene in Oxford.  We saw the famous mustard bottles rain in Tennessee, but this seems far more dangerous for the visitors.  LSU absolutely rocked Clemson in week 1 but showed a few chinks in week 2 with the 'doubtful' Sam Leavitt.  Ole Miss is road tested against a good Louisville team (shoutout Lincoln Kienholz) but this is all about the narrative.  Honestly, LSU likely has the personnel edge, but the Grove will be a madhouse.  The bad blood isn't only with the fans, but also the players.  Their coach bailed on them as they went ham to make the semifinals.  The environment is going to be too much for LSU to handle (and I expect Lane might have to be escorted out before the game ends).  Ole Miss needs a few turnovers to help a weaker defense, but the crowd should provide.  Give me the Rebs.  Miss: 30--LSU: 28
Hoying: Well, we got to see LSU desecrate the desiccated husk of Clemson to open the season; can they match their performance on the road? A good rule of thumb back when old Lane was at Ole Miss was to fade the Rebs on any big road games. And now they're entering the hornets' nest; I don't even think the fans in Columbus this Thanksgiving weekend will be as angry as the Ole Miss faithful this Saturday night. And behind the arm of Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels may have just enough firepower to do something about it. Losing key defensive pieces like Prince Umanmielen to LSU won't help, but Pete Golding didn't sit idly by while Lane looted the store on the way out; Ole Miss brought in one of the nation's top transfer classes themselves. Between the shoulder chip factor and LSU QB Sam Leavitt's (nonexistent?) mystery injury, I think the student gets one over on the master to start the rivalry. Miss: 31--LSU: 30

Schweinfurth: I get there is a lot of hatred for Lane in this one. However, this dude left the cupboard bare. He didn't just take coaches, but players and staff too. I honestly don't think Ole Miss has the talent to hang here. Do I want Lane to get his ass beat? Yes. Will it happen here? No. Miss: 17--LSU: 35

Seeberg: Lane Bowl I. Has a lot more intrigue than the egg bowl these days anyway. I saw a post on social media about Kiffin that I’ll paraphrase: Lane belongs in a rare category of people that are extremely dislikable yet also objectively funny. Spot on. In any case, Lane’s newest team put belt to behind against Clemson on both sides of the ball. The Rebels can still score it, but giving up 38 to first-time starter Lincoln Kienholz and Louisville is a problem- and it will bite them this time. Tigers pull away in the second half. MISS: 27—LSU: 38

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals

Draper: SMU has a nice road win against FSU but the Noles have been on a nasty downward spiral for years.  The Cardinals, on the the hand, lost a close one to the aforementioned Rebels, but looked really good behind former Buckeye Lincoln Kienholz.  Papa Johns Stadium (is it still called that?) was going crazy and should show out for this one.  The Mustangs looked pretty lackluster in Doak and only won due to ineptitude on the other side of the ball.  I like Brohm's Cardinals to get a solid win to take control of 2nd place in the ACC pecking order.  SMU: 20--UL:31
Hoying: Of course, if I'm going to give Ole Miss so much credit, I can't very well dump on the team that pressed them 'til the buzzer in Oxford. Lincoln Kienholz has been one of the surprises of the young season, making a strong push for September Heisman, but he's got nothing on SMU spitfire Kevin Jennings, who heads up the nation's most formidable passing attack. You saw him squeak out a win against Florida State (who might just be horrible again) but he's going to have a score a bit more to keep pace with Louisville. That being said, if you can contain Kienholz, you can constrain the Cardinal attack. But SMU ain't 2023 Missouri. SMU: 24--UL: 31

Schweinfurth: I watched a bit of SMU and they were okay. I haven't set eyes on Louisville, but heard some good things. Not sure how much defense will be played here. My guess is the last team to have the ball wins. SMU: 35--UL: 38

Seeberg: Speaking of Lincoln, he gets another shot at a ranked team this weekend, this time at home against a less-formidable foe. Neither team runs it well, but Kienholz (the leading rusher of BOTH teams in this matchup) has legit dual-threat ability that will give the Mustangs fits. Chalk up another L for a bunch of horses in Kentucky. SMU: 20—UL: 31

Kent State Golden Flashes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Time to get right.  Buckeye Nation needs to R-E-L-A-X.  Last Saturday sucked....it may have even sucked worse than anything has sucked before, but most fans would have said a 1-point loss was understandable before the game.  It doesn't make it right, but the sky isn't falling.  This will be a very telling game as we get to see how Buckeyes decide the future of this squad.  I expect Day and Co. will have their heads on straight and focused on the future.  The new world of big boy CFB isn't undefeated seasons.  It's more like the NFL model in which you test, you improve, then let er rip in the playoffs.  Last year, everyone bemoaned the lack of adversity leading to some complacent losses at the end of the year...well? Here we go.  The Flashes have always sucked and they will continue to do so.  I think we're going to see more creativity in the distribution of the rock and the line will play much better (a lot easier without Colin Simmons.  Things to look for: Sayin calming down and staying in rhythm (unlike the 2nd half), consistent use of JJ (but not forcing the ball to him in triple coverage), better run blocking to improve the worst case runs (make sure we have 3 yards at worst...not -2), some defensive line pressure (needs to get more consistent outside of Kenyatta--hello, Wilder), better discipline in the LBs (let's see a little more Pettijohn as he had a nice game), and avoiding getting burnt like toast (only to turn into the craziest INT ever by McClain).  I trust the coaches.  Shutout time.  Kent: 0--OSU: 56

Hoying: A scant two weeks ago I asked a few prophetic questions about the 2026 Ohio State experience. How will the ball be distributed among the WR corps without a clear #2 option? How will the O-line make room for the running game, and does that include our newly minted captain QB? How many pieces in the secondary does it take to replace Caleb Downs, and what does that mean for getting pressure on the QB? I wasn't satisfied with the answers I got from the Ball State game, and the Bucks' deficiencies in all 3 cost them a very winnable game against Texas. Fortunately, this weekend's game against Kent State is the first in a couple of "get-right" games before making a trip to Iowa City. Maybe we need to see more Brock Boyd and Legend Bey on offense, and more Khary Wilder and Riley Pettijean on defense. Maybe we need to pull our tight ends off the field if they can't block outside zone worth a damn. Maybe...we need to pump the brakes on Connor Hawkins, he drilled his 48-yarder before gacking the potential game-sealer. It's tempting to write off any answers we get against the Golden Flashes as fool's gold, but I at least expect to see some unfamiliar looks this week, as Day likes to tinker when he has the cushion to do so. At any rate, I trust the coaches to have a better sense of what's happening on the field than the average fan (mostly because the average fan is only interested in RUNNING THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY). For now, just enjoy the free win. Kent: 0--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: I took away several things from that debacle last week. This Ohio State team is pretty good, just inexperienced in a few places. Also, Ryan Day hasn't learned from the past. Ultimately, that loss doesn't mean much. I think I had this team pegged around 10-2 heading into the playoffs. It's time to get mad and take it out on poor, defenseless Kent State. This one gets ugly early. How about bombs to Smith, big runs from Bo and Legend and a good defensive performance. It would be nice to get consistent pressure. Get out of this one healthy again and on to B1G play. Kent: 3--OSU: 49

Seeberg: Well here we are again, glorified scrimmage number two, sandwiching an inexplicable loss. Except it wasn’t. It followed an annoyingly predictable pattern. If you’re going to slow a game down and sit on leads, you at least have to have a good kicking game. Can we hire Tressel as a consultant who only recruits kickers and punters? Defensively, I need to see some aggression in this one. I appreciate the discipline of this squad- all of the Longhorns’ scoring drives needed a ton of plays- but the red zone magic is gone with all the losses to the NFL. Patricia needs to dial some things up and risk a big play or two (just not to Jim Knowles levels hopefully). On offense, I just need to see if Julian is actually aware that it’s legal to throw the ball between the hashes. Some chunk run plays would be nice too. And tempo maybe? The 2-minute drill last week may have been the best the offense has looked since 2024 against a real opponent. Get out fast, stay healthy, and get JJ the first of his all-time records. Kent: 10—OSU: 55 

Upset Special
Draper: WKU over IU
Hoying: Colorado State over BYU
Schweinfurth: FSU over Bama
Seeberg: West Virginia over Virginia