Week 7: Breathe

Standings:

1.) Draper 23-4 (4-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 21-6 (2-4 upset)
3.) Hoying 20-7 (3-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 20-7 (3-3 upset)

We were promised a return to normalcy. Instead, chaos has reigned over the past 6 weeks. Clemson wasted no time wandering into Playoff exile, and each of its Playoff friends from last year has already absorbed a loss. Our brave new world is led by Georgia, Iowa, and Cincinnati. That is, unless it's Kentucky's world instead. Let's take a week to take a breath while the Buckeyes rest and recover, then let's settle in for the stretch run. Welcome back to 2007.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: As we yo-yo back and forth all season, this feels like a 'Texas is BACK' week.  Last week saw an epic..EPIC collapse by the Longhorns to their hated rival, but I think they'll rebound well enough.  Okie State has quietly put together a nice season in Stillwater, but this game isn't in Stillwater.  I don't know if the Texas faithful will show out in droves or turn tail and run, but Bijan Robinson and company should be enough to get a ranked win and proclaim Texas to be back once again.  OkSt: 20--Tex: 34
Hoying: "Mom, can we have a win over Oklahoma?" "No, dear, we have win over Oklahoma at home" Yeah, this isn't what Texas fans were hoping for after opening up a 28-7 first quarter lead over the Sooners, but the Big 12's other undefeated team is coming to town and the Longhorns still have a chance to claw their way back into the Big 12's farcical championship game. Bijan Robinson has been filling the headlines so far for Texas, but it was WR Xavier Worthy who stole the show against Oklahoma, racking up 261 yards on 9 catches. That gives the Horns an opening against the Pokes, who have been as tough on defense as anyone in the Big 12 but have been vulnerable through the air. The Cowboys don't have the horses to keep up with Texas; they've been kept under 30 points in all of their games but one even though they remain undefeated. Texas clears the field for Oklahoma to win another Big 12 regular season title, at least unless the Sooners' recklessness catches up with them. OkSt: 20--Tex: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State is ranked in the top 15 and yet I don't recall ever seeing a game on TV. How is this possible. Maybe because this year has just been so screwy? Texas can score. We all saw that last week when they pooped their pants in public lost to Oklahoma. The Cowboys don't have the same talent as Oklahoma, so I expect Texas to pull away in this one. But who knows, it's Texas and they are not back yet. OkSt: 28--Tex: 38

Seeberg:  Is Texas good?  Is Oklahoma good?  Is Oklahoma State good?  Is the Big XII clamoring for a shred of 2021 respectability before falling off a cliff?  Answers:  I don't know, I don't know, I don't know, and absolutely.  I do know the Cowboys squeaked by Baylor (is Baylor good?  Answer:  I don't know).  And Texas had a national TV meltdown akin to, well Mike Gundy WHO IS FORTY, in their Red River Rivalry wreck loss to OU.  Despite that debacle, I still think the Longhorns are the better team, not that that matters all that often.  Longhorns bounce back (but aren't back, if that makes sense).  OkSt: 27--UT: 38 

Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: No one wants to say it, but this game may be for the SEC East division.  Kentucky has already defeated the Gators (who called that upset?) and while Georgia has been chugging along, the win over Clemson has been wholly devalued...but....none of this matters.  Georgia is a monster on defense and should take care of the plucky Wildcats.  I do expect a surprising one-two punch from the Cats early, but Georgia's talent on the D-line is scary good.  I think the way to beat them is to outlast them via turnovers and shutting down their so-so offense.  Kentucky isn't that team.  Oh, they're between the hedges too? Uh-oh.  UK: 10-UGA: 27
Hoying:  Alabama losing to an unranked team is obviously not a result anyone expected. But that game didn't really change anything in the SEC West; the Tide are still win and in. You want the chaos season to really take off in earnest? A Kentucky win would essentially lock up the Wildcats' first East title...ever. Can it be done? The Cats are getting it done on the ground behind a strong season by RB Christ Rodriguez, Jr., and the defense is doing an adequate job as well. But Kentucky is one of the worst in the nation in turnover margin, net -8 for the year through 6 games. That's bad news when you're facing the top defense in the nation. Yeah, Stetson Bennett may give the ball back to Kentucky a couple times as he continues to fill in for J.T. Daniels, but it's not like UK's going to be able to do anything with the ball once they have it. Georgia gave up their first TD outside of garbage time (debatably) last week, once they already had a 3-touchdown second half lead over Auburn. It's still Georgia's year. For now. UK: 6--UGA: 30
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is a great story this year. Mark Stoops has turned the Wildcats around and seems to have a good program. Enter the Dogs from Georgia. That defense is by far the best in the country so far this season. There are some questions about the Georgia offense, but they won't matter here. Georgia is should win easily. UK: 9--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  Remarkably, the Wildcats didn't fall flat on their face after their huge win over the Gators, following it with a comfortable win over LSU.  The Bulldogs are a completely different animal, however.  I don't expect lightning to strike twice in two weeks against the SEC juggernauts.  Mark Stoops seems to have UK to at least perennial respectability, but giant killers?  Not just yet.  UK: 10--UGA: 28

Upset Special
Draper: TCU over Oklahoma
Hoying: Purdue over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Mizzou over TAMU
Seeberg:  Tennessee over Ole Miss

Polls Are Stupid

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has come under a lot of fire in the past few years, whether for favoring the same few teams year in and year out, or undervaluing Group of 5 teams, or whatever your personal grievance is (I'm still not over #5 Georgia, #6 Ohio State from 2018), but all in all I think they've done a pretty good job. As when evaluating all things, we should consider the Playoff in the context of what it replaced, which is in this case the BCS.

The BCS was endlessly tinkered with over its 16-year lifespan, with the final form being essentially a mix of the leading human polls with a little computer spice sprinkled in. One of these human polls was the Harris Poll, which wasn't a thing until the AP decided that the BCS wasn't supporting, at which point the Harris Poll was created out of whole cloth to make sure that the humans still outnumbered the computers. The other was the Coaches Poll, voted on by people who couldn't possibly have watched any games but their own. And the AP poll decided to keep giving out their own national championship award, not based on the BCS, just for kicks. Did this system give us any better results?

One need look no further than this week's disastrous AP poll to find out. Say what you want about the Playoff Committee; I don't think they've ever screwed the pooch this hard, even in an early season poll. Let's take a look at some of the highlights:

        1.  Georgia
        2.  Iowa

OK, no complaints so far. These teams clearly have the best resumes to date.

        3. Cincinnati

That's fine, they're hanging their hats on that one win over Notre Dame, but it was a convincing win over a good team, on the road.

        4.  Oklahoma

Yeah, all right, not dominating their opponents, but a win's a win, and Texas a nice feather in your Stetson.

        5.  Alabama

What? Alabama? The team that just lost to an unranked (now ranked in the 20s) team? There's a good argument that the Tide have the worst loss of any one-loss Power 5 team not named Pitt or Oregon. Yeah, the road win over Florida (by 2 points) is nice, but Florida has two losses. Someone else must have beaten the Gators as well. Like...

        11. Kentucky

Did I miss something? Are the 'Cats 6-0 or not? Did they not match one of Bama's premier wins? I get that nobody had them ranked preseason, and most people probably wouldn't pick them in a match against Georgia or Ohio State, but we're six games in and Kentucky hasn't tripped up once, facing an SEC schedule no less. Why are they ranked below Alabama, let alone outside the top 10? Let's see who the teams are in the middle.

        6.  Ohio State

I get it. It's fun to watch teams grind their opponents into dust week in and week out. The problem is, nobody cares when those opponents are Akron, Rutgers, and Maryland. The Buckeyes have had one chance to impress so far this year, and they blew it, at home to boot. The schedule gives lots of opportunities for quality wins coming up, but OSU is totally empty in that category as of now. You can't rank based on "I think they're actually good"; you need to see them execute against a team with a pulse. Let's see who's behind them...

        7.  Penn State

Really. You're going to knock Penn State behind Ohio State for losing to the #2 team, on the road, by 3 points, after seeing a big lead get carried off the field with their starting quarterback. There's a reason the Lions were #4 last week. They're walking the walk. They went into Camp Randall and came out with a W. They faced the Auburn Tigers of the mighty SEC and walked away unscathed. What about this season says "Ohio State deserves to be ranked ahead of Penn State?" At least the quality of the Iowa loss must count for something. I'd hate to see the kind of nasty losses keeping down the teams from #8 on down...

        8.  Michigan

AP poll, why are you making me do this? Ah well, here we go. Do you like watching Ohio State roll their opponents? Let me introduce the Wolverines, who disrespected Washington and Wisconsin the same way. Did you like watching Penn State dispatch the Badgers in Camp Randall? Again, Michigan did that, and in blowout fashion rather than sneaking away with a win. Did you like..watching Ohio State and Penn State...you know...lose? Because the Wolverines haven't done that yet. It's OK to admit you were wrong at the start of the season, AP poll voters. Time to give Michigan some credit.

        9.  Oregon

Quick, which team in America has the best win according to the AP poll? That would be Texas A&M, but in second place would be Oregon, who beat the #6 Ohio State Buckeyes. Maybe Oregon's win is even better since it came on the road. Anyway, Oregon has the same number of losses as the Buckeyes. And Oregon is ranked 3 spots lower. Figure that one out. Must be that Stanford loss weighing them down, keeping them below all of the other one-loss and undefeated teams...

        10.  Michigan State

Aw, come on. This, out of all the rankings so far, makes this least sense, for so, so many reasons. First of all, why is undefeated Michigan State ranked behind Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, AND Oregon? You can dog the Spartans' schedule for lack of a signature win, but it's not like Alabama or Oregon lost to world beaters either. And if you're concerned about win quality, HOW is Michigan State ranked ahead of Kentucky, which has a win over Florida? And I get that Michigan can easily be ranked ahead of Michigan State, due to win quality, but how does it make any sense to sandwich Oregon in the middle?

That's enough for now; we don't need to go into why Wake Forest is ranked behind Coastal Carolina or why Ole Miss is seven spots back of Ohio State. It's clear what's going on, and it's the same disease that has infected the traditional college football polls since their inception: they're too conservative. Instead of throwing out the rankings each week and creating a new 1-25 based on each team's season performance, the pollsters look at the previous week's poll and say things like "Oh, they lost, they should drop a few spots. Oh, they won, I guess they should go up." And so halfway through the season, we see the teams that were expected to be good, like Ohio State and Alabama, hovering around the top 5 with mediocre resumes, while undefeated teams like Michigan, Michigan State, and Kentucky have had to fight their way up from their unranked preseason positions to barely (or barely not) crack the top 10. 

And this isn't even taking into account how bonkers some of the individual ballots are. Thanks to the wisdom of crowds, the worst excesses of the AP writers are balanced out, but one need only look at the grid view of the individual ballots to see some real galaxy brain takes on the top teams in college football. By my count, that's four ballots with Alabama at #2. Browsing through the Twitter responses to these rankings (always a mistake) I saw a comment (from a lawyer no less, Kyrie eleison) that "I think Bama at 2 is clear. Bama and Georgia are the two best teams. People put too much stock into records." Because who needs wins and losses when you know who the best teams are? Might as well  select the Playoff field in August and play twelve exhibition games to get them warmed up.

Thankfully, there's a lot of season left to play, and even more thankfully, the AP poll will be irrelevant once more in just a few short weeks, as it is every season upon the release of the Playoff rankings.

Week 6: James v. Kirk

Standings:

1.) Draper 18-4 (3-2 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-6 (3-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 16-6 (3-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 16-6 (1-4 upset)

For the first time in 20 years, the Big Ten is in the national spotlight without getting Ohio State involved (first time in 50 years if you don't involve Michigan either). Meanwhile, the SEC picks up the pieces of last week's dismantlings by #1 and #2, and a shootout by any other name threatens to deal a death blow to a 3rd Power 5 conference's Playoff hopes in this young season.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: I've been on Iowa all year at the likely top contender to OSU in the B1G and I stand by it.  Kinnick is a tough place to play, but Penn State is 'road tested' at Madison. Unfortunately for both teams, their big wins have aged poorly (Wisconsin, Auburn, and Iowa State).  I'm going to lean on the team that has home field and a nasty defense.  I'm honestly not sold on Penn State this year.  Clifford doesn't have enough to fight the Hawks defense.  PSU: 16--Iowa: 24
Hoying: Live by the turnover, die by the turnover. The Hawkeyes have been doing a lot of the former and none of the latter over the last five weeks, paving the way for five straight double-digit wins. The Ballhawkeyes reached the point of absurdity last week, picking off Tua's little brother five times to pace a blowout win over Maryland. What's not clear is whether Iowa can maintain this success without their opponents doing their best Santa Claus impression. Lowly Colorado State was actually +1 against the Hawkeyes and managed to keep the game close well into the second half. Can Iowa score without having consistently short fields to work with? Even if that answer is no, I'm not sure we'll find out against Penn State this week. I'm not on board the Sean Clifford train yet, as his completion rate has hovered around 50% in the two Big Ten games he's played so far. That inaccuracy plays right into Iowa's hands, and it's not like the Penn State offense has the rushing attack to keep the Hawkeyes honest. After this game, the Hawkeyes only have to face the dregs of the Big Ten West (i.e., the entire Big Ten West), so they won't be holding anything back in this one. I don't see a team outside of Ohio State producing the kind of balanced offense required to push the Hawkeye defense out of their comfort zone. The Penn State defense is no slouch, either, but Iowa gets a huge statement win...and stays parked at #3 until Alabama or Georgia loses. PSU: 17--Iowa: 20
Schweinfurth: I have been very impressed with the Iowa defense. The number of turnovers has just been staggering and has caused a lot of lopsided scores. Penn State is pretty good on defense is well, but doesn't get much help from the offense at times. To be honest, the only person that really scares me on the Lions offense is Dotson. This game has the feel of Penn State's week 1 thumper against Wisconsin, except that Iowa is better. Sean Clifford returns Penn State to its Pix Six U glory days here. PSU: 14--Iowa: 20

Seeberg: I see what you did with the title there Hoying, well done!  #nerdalert.  I realize it's hard to read much into last season, but I'm still more surprised at Penn State's ascension than Iowa's this season, doing it with a decent(?) QB, one standout WR and...and...exactly.  The Wisconsin win has been thoroughly devalued- as will the Auburn win in all likelihood this weekend.  Iowa, meanwhile, returned a ton of pretty good players just about everywhere and are playing a vanilla type of football that makes Jim Tressel's offense look like Mike Leach.  Still, when you force SEVEN turnovers, it's hard to argue.  The Hawkeyes are flat out not going to beat themselves, and that's a damn good quality.  It's going to take mistake-free football from a markedly more talented team to win, especially in Iowa City, and that just doesn't seem likely.  Enjoy another B1G coach of the year trophy/obligatory contract extension, Mr. Kirk.  PSU: 16--Iowa: 24

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: The Shootout has morphed into a real game this year.  Texas is quietly sneaking BACK into the conversation, while everyone is waiting for the hammer to drop on OU. The Sooners have been playing with fire all year, but they never seem to blink in this game of yet.  Texas is clicking, but Lincoln Riley will do enough to keep the hat in Norman. UT: 31--OU:34
Hoying: Who's the signature skill player in this year's Red River Shootout? Going into the season, you would have been forgiven for saying Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler, sitting at #1 on most preseason Heisman polls. But his play has been uneven, as Oklahoma has struggled to put up its usual big numbers on offense and has dispatched only lowly Western Carolina by multiple scores. No, the fireworks come from RB Bijan Robinson on the burnt orange side of the field, who's been having TreVeyon Henderson-esque days against every [non-SEC] team he's faced. Of course, Oklahoma is going to be an SEC team soon enough; is their defense tough enough to stop Robinson? I doubt it, as they didn't do a great deal to slow down Tulane or Kansas State, and those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. Sark makes a splash and resurrects the age-old question: is Texas back? UT: 31--OU: 27
Schweinfurth: Texas is not back and Oklahoma is overrated. Okay, now that we have that out there, neither of these are impressive. Texas seems to have found a rhythem by settling on one QB. Rattler looks like the QB that was benched last season. Oklahoma just looks getable this year and Texas is due. UT: 28--OU: 24
Seeberg:  Earlier this season, I stated the Longhorns would be medicore at best with that silly 2-QB rotation.  Well, Sark seems to have settled on a starter and his squad is reaping the benefits.  Oklahoma, for their case, has professionally meandered through their schedule so far, but should be as 'up' as they can be for the Red River Rivalry.  Have the Sooners been coasting, keeping things close to the vest for this game?  Perhaps.  Are the Sooners overrated?  A more-likely perhaps.  Are the Longhorns ALWAYS overrated?  Check.  This truly feels like a coin flip type of game, for the first time in quite some time.  I still trust Lincoln Riley more until I'm shown otherwise.  Sooners in a fun one.  UT: 31--OU: 38

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: What to do here? Arkansas has 2 nice wins but I have less faith in them as a whole.  Ole Miss has Kiffy-kins, but it's Ole Miss.  Both teams face-planted last week so who rebounds.  Honestly, I have no clue.  Kiffin can usually cook something up to score so let's go with the home team.  Ark: 24--Miss: 34
Hoying: Welcome to the Disappointment Bowl. Each of these teams had high hopes to score a signature win against a top-2 opponent last week, and neither came particularly close. Especially the Hogs. I don't blame them for not being able to move the ball against that invincible Georgia front, but giving up 37 points? To Georgia's backup QB? At least Ole Miss added some garbage time points to make the score look respectable. Arkansas has been battle tested this season in a way that Mississippi hasn't facing 3 ranked teams already and beating 2, but last week doesn't give me much hope for the Hogs going forward. The Rebel offense finds its footing and stomps the Razorbacks into the turf for the second time in as many weeks. Ark: 20--Miss: 34
Schweinfurth: Look, I'm here for good football. These two would be unranked if they played in any other conference. Little Lane and his massive ego are a bit bruised from Saban's woodshedding last week. Arkansas just seems like the lesser team to me, I don't know why. Ole' Miss gets the recovery win. Ark: 17--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Hard to piece together what happened last week to these two teams.  Bama and UGA may just be that much better than them (and everybody else, for that matter).  Still, a shutout of a power five school is pretty remarkable in 2021, let alone one that was in the top 20.  Ole Miss was shellacked for 2.5 quarters (not to mention also shut out for that length of time) until finally finding some rhythm after the game was no longer in doubt.  That second-half output at least gives the Rebs a glimmer of optimism, and a home crowd should fire them back up enough to beat the downtrodden Razorbacks.  Ark: 16--Miss: 27

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Georgia is really really good (especially on defense).  Auburn...had a nice showing vs. Penn State? This may be a rivalry game, but the Tigers simply don't have the horses.  The Dawg defense is stifling and while they may (MAY) give up a point this week, it won't be nearly enough to matter.  UGA: 27--Aub:10
Hoying: Speaking of the team that ruined Arkansas's feel-good season story, say hello to the invincible Georgia defense. The Dawgs have now played five games and have given up TWO touchdowns, both of which came in garbage time of blowouts. Does Auburn have a particularly effective or innovative offense? No. They have a good rushing attack and a junior quarterback who seems like he's been mediocre forever. This is the second of four consecutive ranked games for Georgia, and I don't expect them to break a sweat once, at least until they face Alabama in December. Bulldogs roll again. UGA: 34--Aub: 10
Schweinfurth:  Georgia good. Auburn bad. I will actually be suprised if the Tigers find the endzone here. Not a shutout for the Dogs, but another slaughter. UGA: 31--Aub: 3
Seeberg: Until Georgia actually gives up multiple touchdowns in a single game, there's not a ton to break down here, particularly with a 9th year starting quarterback at Auburn who's yet to be more than "meh" for the entirety of his career.  As demonstrated last week, it doesn't even matter who's under center for UGA, Dawgs roll.  UGA: 27--Aub: 6

Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Baby Tua's sheen has diminsed after the shellacking vs. Iowa last week.  The Bucks, on the other hand, are riding high after handing a better-than-you-think Rutgers team an embarrassing beatdown.  It appears Stroud has gotten right, and the connection with Olave and Wilson is improving everyday.  Let's not forget that this defense is starting to look, dare I say, competent?  Now the Terps will score a bit here, but I don't see them stopping the Bucks this weekend.  Treyveyon stays in for more than a quarter and racks up some stats, but the big plays over the top start to show up this week. Mary: 27-OSU: 51
Hoying: When has Ohio State lost games in the Meyer/Day era? Either the opponent was just better (Alabama 2020, Oklahoma 2017, Clemson 2016), or played the Buckeyes strength-on-strength and executed better or got some lucky breaks (Clemson 2019, Michigan State 2015, Michigan State 2013), or had some kind of gimmick to exploit (Purdue 2018, Virginia Tech 2014). Rutgers was not capable of any of these last week, which is why that game was not a trap game (and I correctly picked Ohio State to blow them out). Maryland, on the other hand, presents a bit of a problem. You wouldn't know it from last Friday's absolute disaster against the kleptomaniacal Hawkeye defense, but the Terps have quite the talented gunslinger behind center. You may know him as Tua Tagovailoa's little brother, and he's sitting at #2 in the Big Ten in passing yards per game behind our own Mr. Stroud. Granted, the Maryland passing attack was a bit nerfed this week as their ace receiver Dontay Demus sustained a season-ending injury, but they're still dangerous. This will be a big test for the new-look Silver Bullet secondary. Akron and Rutgers were never going to throw all over us, but this game may tell us how Ohio State may fare against the likes of Sean Clifford, Payton Thorne, and Adrian Martinez (Cade McNamara still sucks, though). Never forget how Anthony McFarland, Jr. almost single-handedly kept the 2018 Ohio State Buckeyes out of the Rose Bowl, and don't sleep on this Terp attack. That being said, good luck stopping a newly resurgent C.J. Stroud and his coterie of elite pass-catchers, backed up by the freshest and possibly (possibly, see the OU-UT writeup above) best running back in the nation. Iowa put up 50 on these guys; there'll be no one to stop us this time. Mary: 24--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: That was the Buckeye team we have been waiting to see. That was an improved Rutgers team and Ohio State treated them like they were, well, Buttgers. Maryland is a very feast or famine team. They are going to play lights out on offense, or they are going to throw a ton of picks. The multiple looks the Bucks have thrown out the last two weeks should be enough to confuse Taulia. I think a few more picks are in the offing this week. Offensively, just give the ball to TreVeyon and enjoy. This will be a better test to see how Stroud has progressed, and I expect him to continue to improve. The Bucks are going to score, and score often. Maryland may score, but there is no stopping this offense right now. Mary: 21--OSU: 56
Seeberg: Well, last week was fun wasn't it?  A short-field TD, a pick 6, and four minutes in the blowout was on.  Rutgers is improving, but the gap is still huge, as it is with the Terrapins coming to town.  Maryland is likely not as miserable as their wait-we-should-actually-keep-the-ball? performance against Iowa last week.  Unfortunately for the visiting team, the Buckeyes don't need seven turnovers to hang half a hundred on you.  The D seems to be improving, and getting healthier, in the new system.  Not to mention losing about 450 lbs. in deadweight in the form of 2 linebackers!  Offensively, Henderson staying healthy is clearly paramount.  Get him 12-15 touches and 130 yards and get him out.  Keep Olave fed (still can't believe he went without a catch), get Stroud to stop zeroing in on Wilson too obviously, and get to the bye week relatively unscathed.  Mary: 17--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Florida State over UNC
Hoying: Nebraska over Michigan
Schweinfurth: Rutgers over MSU
Seeberg:  Boise State over BYU

Week 5: Prove-It Saturday

Standings:

1.) Draper 13-4 (2-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 13-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 11-6 (3-1 upset)
3.) Hoying 11-6 (2-2 upset)

Last week's matchups might not have looked great on paper, but chaos reigned as two top 10 teams went down and three more ranked teams lost to unranked opponents. This week's slate leaves little possibility for disappointment. Two red-hot SEC teams take their shows on the road against the top two teams in the nation, while a familiar Group of Five team takes a running leap toward crashing the Playoff party for the first time.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Georgia has looked very...very good this year (primarily on defense).  The offense has been a little shaky, but the explosion against Vandy (yes, yes I know it was Vandy) was good to see.  Arkansas has absolutely been the party crasher of the year.  Beating Texas wasn't THAT special, but taking out A&M was a statement that they're here to compete.  BUT....are they on the Bulldogs level? Not yet.  I think this will provide a little bit of a shock to the system in a low scoring affair.  Dawgs keep truckin.  Ark: 10--UGA: 24
Hoying: Color me surprised. I didn't expect the Hogs to suffocate A&M on their way to an impressive 4-0 start. But if you want to be top pretender in the SEC, you have to knock off the current perennial maybe-threat to Alabama, the Georgia Bulldogs (no, Florida, nobody ever believes you'll actually beat the Tide). Georgia's been on a tear of their own over the last 3 weeks, against some admittedly terrible competition. The opening win over Clemson doesn't look as impressive now that the Tiger's out of the bag about Dabo's nonexistent offense in a post-Lawrence, post-Etienne world. Still, the Bulldog defense hasn't had an off week so far, and that's bad news for a terribly one-dimensional Razorback attack. Remember when Clemson had 2 rushing yards against Georgia? Yeah, that included 7 sacks by the Georgia D, and I don't expect the Hogs to have any better success running or throwing the ball than Clemson did. Georgia hasn't given up a touchdown outside of garbage time so far this year, and they might not until they see the Gators in Jacksonville. Arkansas just isn't at that top tier of teams yet. Ark: 6--UGA: 28
Schweinfurth: I REALLY wanted to pull the trigger on Arkansas last week. I just thought TAMU would actually show up. Are the Hogs that good, not really. Are they ranked high because all the teams are about equal this year, yes. Unlike TAMU, Georgia's defense is legit. I really don't see how the Hogs score on the Dogs. Top the off with the fact that Georgia may be the second best team in the SEC (who knows, everyone has issues). Arkansas fight hard, but Georgia wins. Ark: 9--UGA: 17
Seeberg:  Well, Arkansas now looks legit-ish after shutting down the Aggies.  TAMU has underperformed all year on offense, however, so it's hard to know how much to take from that win.  And speaking of underperforming offenses, a trip to Vandy certainly cured the Bulldogs of that ailment as they put up 62 last week.  Not expecting these two to even get to 62 combined, but the Bulldogs are still too talented to drop this one between the hedges.  Ark: 10--UGA: 24

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: So, what to do after the Irish 'blew out' the Badgers...well...upon further review, this was a close game (until a kickoff return and 2 pick 6's late).  I don't think the Badgers are anything special, but I REALLY don't expect anything from the Irish.  I remember the barn-burner against FSU and so does everyone else.  To Cincy...this is the chance. They have a legit shot at the playoffs for the first Group of 5 rep.  You need 3 things: 1) undefeated, 2) a few decent wins (ND and Indiana), and 3) a decent preseason ranking.  Cincy checks the boxes so far, but they need to cash in.  I think they get it done.  The major problem is the fact that this game is on peacock and NOT youtubeTV taking eyeballs away. If the Bearcats win and win impressively, they are a real threat for the playoff.  UC: 30--ND: 24 (as a Cincy sidenote: the sole possessors of 1st place in the AFC North say WHODEY!! SUPABOWL!)
Hoying: With all the conference realignment set to shake up the haves and have-nots over the next few seasons and potential Playoff expansion looming on the horizon, 2021 Cincinnati might be the Group of 5's last chance to crash the Playoff party before they're gifted an annual auto-bid. In order for a G5 team to fit the bill, they need (1) a relatively strong conference (check), (2) a weakened Playoff field overall (ACC is practically out already), and (3) a signature nonconference win. And look who's stepping up to the plate. It's the Fighting Irish, fresh off a blowout (of sorts) over the Wisconsin Badgers and still ranked in the top 10. The AAC hasn't had a chance like this since Houston opened the 2016 season with a win over Oklahoma. Are the Bearcats good enough to pull the [win while slightly favored]? Hard to say. They certainly looked the part last year, coming a late game meltdown away from going undefeated with a signature bowl win, but they struggled to put Indiana away in their last outing, trailing the Hoosiers in every quarter. The 'Cats have had an extra week to prepare for Notre Dame, but let's be honest with ourselves, they've been laser-focus locked into this game since before the season started. What better way to stake your claim to be a program's next head coach than to deliver them a humiliating defeat? The Irish, for their part, have their own problems. Long-time readers (thank you) will remember that none of us were bullish on the Irish last week, and the Wisconsin game doesn't really move the needle for me. Late pick sixes and kickoff returns are nice score padders but the Irish weren't able to do anything on offense. And now with Ice Cream Coan questionable to play, ND's problems on offense could be worsening. The G5 playoff train rolls along for at least another week. UC: 27--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Luke Fickell has built himself a program, huh? He has a legit and aggressive defense and a veteran QB. Notre Dame is Notre Dame. They are a good, top 10 program. Just two issues here: 1) Who is going to be the Irish QB this week, and 2) Can they run the ball. The Irish just cannot get the ground game going this year and has survived by some excellent play on defense. I just don't see a way the Irish win this if they can't run the ball, and they are going to struggle. Big win for the Fightin' Ficks in South Bend. UC: 28--ND: 21

Seeberg: *Heavy sigh* Ok, Ok, I'm done doubting Notre Dame.  They're still not legit championship contenders but they're solid on D (can we PLEASE steal Marcus Freeman from them??) and, though unspectacular on offense, they take care of the ball.  This is likely to play out similar to last week's game for the golden domers against Wiscy.  Neither of these teams is comfortable throwing the ball, but when Wisconsin was forced to throw it late when behind, the game quickly unraveled.  This is definitely the Bearcats' best chance for a win that boosts their resume into playoff-caliber, but they have to win it.  I just don't see them scoring enough to manage it.  ND pulls away late.  UC: 17--ND: 27

Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Lane Train gets to go up against the evil genius.  We all know that Saban just doesn't lose to old assistants....ever.  Ole Miss has been lighting up scoreboards all year, and Bama's defense isn't anything special...BUT Bama is still Bama, and they also break the scoreboard.  Saban's key to success has been adaptation.  He won with defense and running the ball for years. When offense became king, he reinvented the scheme.  Don't mess with what works.  Ole Miss is a nice flashy team, but flash doesn't usually beat the king.  Miss: 30--Bama: 44
Hoying: What's Lane got left in the bag? Last year the Rebels put up an impressive 48 points on Bama (you may remember Ohio State scoring half that much) running all of the plays that Saban hates to face. You're probably not going to fool Old Nick twice, so it might just be up to the Ole Miss horses to outplay the Tide strength-on-strength. Is this possible? Your first thought we be "no, of course not, no way," but remember that Florida essentially played Alabama to a draw not two weeks ago. Then again, Ole Miss is not quite Florida, at least not yet, and Bama won't be leaving the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny this time. Texas A&M is on tap for the Tide, but I really don't see them looking ahead, as Ole Miss is likely the deadlier foe. Gun to my head, I'd say this upset is likelier than Arkansas beating Georgia, but I still wouldn't count on it. Miss: 30--Bama: 41
Schweinfurth:  Bama feels vulnerable here and I don't know why. Lane just has Saban's number (even though he hasn't beaten him). But here's the thing, this is where Bama breaks the other team. Nicky owns his former assistants and the trend continues. BTW, I think this game would be closer if Lane would stop running his mouth. Saban will want to stick it to him. Miss: 28--Bama: 52
Seeberg: Solid slate of games this week!  The hits keep coming with Lane's boys against Bama.  Make no mistake, Ole Miss can score on anyone.  Stopping anyone, particularly the Tide, however, is not a sure thing.  Bama is also battled tested, getting a scare from Florida, and the Rebels have feasted on lesser foes.  Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...and I don't like the visiting team's chances of recovering from that punch.  Miss: 27--Bama: 45

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Completely forgot the Big 12 was still a conference.  I honestly have no clue about these teams, and I'm writing these late.  In the interest of time, I'm leaning on the better coach with homefield.  As a man who is 40 himself, Go Pokes.  BU: 24--OSU: 35
Hoying: I guess we should talk about the Big 12. With the ACC essentially eliminated from Playoff consideration and 3 undefeated teams remaining in America's second-favorite wrong-numbered conference, the Big 12 is in good shape to return to the Playoff after missing out last season. And if it's not going to be carpetbagging Oklahoma (it will), it's likely to be one of these true-blue Big 12 loyalists. Yeah, I'm falling asleep already too. The Cowboys are fresh off their first multiple-score win of the season after having faced the fearsome lineup of Missouri State, Tulsa (shut up), and Boise State to start the season. Maybe they'll have a chance to break through once Big Brother has gone to easterner pastures. Baylor did a nice job squeaking out a win over ranked Iowa State last week, but it's Iowa State, the Indiana of Vanderbilts. I frankly don't trust either of these teams, so I'll do a weasel pick and take the home team. BU: 28--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Let's put it this way, I haven't watched much Big-12 football outside of Oklahoma booing Spencer Rattler. I guess Ok St is better? Who knows. Either way, I'll just take the home team. BU: 35--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Is anyone in this conference for real?  The Sooners look pedestrian week after week, but I don't trust either of these teams much.  The Cowboys have 4 wins by a combined 24 points, including by just 5 over Tulsa (yes, that Tulsa) and a 1-point squeaker, albeit on the road, at Boise State.  Baylor, meanwhile, was thrust into the rankings after beating we-thought-they-would-be-good (they're not) Iowa State last week.  Still, when I don't know who to pick I tend to lean on the single unit that I believe is best- and in this case, it's the Baylor offense.  Bears buoy bad Big 12.  BU: 41--OSU: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Draper: Newsflash Buckeye Nation: this isn't your grandparent's Rutgers team.  Buttgers has been the laughing stock since...well before they joined the B1G, but Schiano is returning them to the glory year of 2006, but we're not there yet.  I see this as a Purdue level game (which was honestly terrifying in the Urban Era).  I think the team will enjoy welcoming Stroud back, but I hope the scheme is more creative this week and get the dang ball to Olave and Wilson.  Henderson is a mismatch as well so he'll get his, but I need to see more creativity in the passing game.  We have the 2 best receivers in college football and we aren't showcasing them.  I think this game will have the Buckeye faithful super nervous into the 2nd half, but Marotti time kicks in and the Bucks pull away.  Just get better every week.  OSU: 34--RU: 17
Hoying: Ah, this is the Rutgers we were promised when the Big Ten extended an invitation nearly a decade ago. The return of Greg Schiano has injected some competence into the Scarlet Knights. The B1G wins haven't followed, yet, but the Knights will have plenty of opportunities to pick up a signature win in a stacked Big Ten East this season. And after playing a hot Michigan team to a standstill with its excellent defense, Rutgers sets its sights on the big kahuna. Is Ohio State's offense capable of moving the ball where the Wolverines couldn't? In a word, yes. CJ Stroud is coming back, TreVeyon Henderson continues to improve seemingly on every carry, and the Buckeyes now feature the nation's top offense in terms of yards per play. Sadly, the Bucks are only #2 in total offense since the defense doesn't make it off the dang field enough, but that shouldn't be a problem against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a total of 30 points in the two games they've played against Power 5 opponents. Look for them to break out the bullcrap (like in the second half last year) but not to be a serious threat to take down Ohio State this year. This will be a good measuring stick for the Scarlet and Gray after last week's glorified scrimmage. If the domination continues, this season could have a happy ending after all. OSU: 45--RSUNJ: 17
Schweinfurth: Rutgers looks like it is finally getting better and that's not surprising. Schiano has brought credibility and has the players buying in. Rutgers almost pulled the annual Michigan shocker and absolutely dominated the second half. Here's a secret though, Michigan is a one trick pony on offense. The Buckeyes are the #2 ranked offense (by yards) in FBS. That's pretty good. The Scarlet Knights are going to sell out to stop TreVeyon Henderson. I don't think it matters much. I think Stroud is rested and ready to go. Olave is due for a big day and maybe even a few deep bombs this week. On defense, I'm just looking for more improvements, especially when backing into zones. Denzel Burke is owed an INT. Get up big, let Rutgers pull out the tricks to make it look close, and move on to a potentially HUGE game against *gulp* Maryland? OSU: 52--RU: 20
Seeberg:  Don't look now kids, but this is your older-older brother's Rutgers; well-coached, and actually starting to close the talent gap thanks to Schiano's return.  Ironically, both teams NEED to run the ball and control the clock and game flow, but only one WANTS to (not us).  Assuming Day isn't too stubborn with his play calling, a healthy dose of Henderson, Teague and Williams are needed.  It won't be the laughable whitewash this game has been literally every year since the Knights wandered aimlessly into the B1G 14, but a conference win over a +.500 opponent always looks good.  OSU: 31--RU: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Kentucky over Florida
Hoying: Stanford over Oregon
Schweinfurth: BC over Clemson
Seeberg:  Kansas State over Oklahoma

Week 4: Akron - City of Lights

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 11-2 (1-2 upset)
1.) Draper 11-2 (1-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 9-4 (2-1 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-4 (2-1 upset)

Neutral site games are stupid. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Let's get pumped for this one! A horribly underwhelming Irish team faces the standard fatguy football of the Badgers....but it's in Soldier Field! Why? SHUT UP THAT'S WHY! The Irish have a tendency to squeak by in games they should trounce the opponent then wake up in a game you don't expect them to win.  But this year....they just look terrible.  Wisconsin is super boring and couldn't outlast Penn State, but I think they'll be ok to end the outside shot of playoffs that the Domers hold.  Kelly waits another week to take the record from Rockne.  ND: 17 -- Wisc: 24

Hoying: Remember when Notre Dame opened the season with that epic victory over a seemingly resurgent Florida State. Yeah, that seems like a million years ago now that FSU followed up that performance with a capitulation to Jacksonville State and a blowout loss to Wake Forest. Notre Dame, for their part, hasn't lost a game yet but needed a last minute TD to get by Toledo after escaping the Noles in overtime. I don't trust the Irish at all; they can't run the ball and they replaced Playoff QB Ian Book with some castoff from a second-tier Big Ten school. And, speak of the devil, here now come the Badgers, with their own passing problems. At least the Badgers can run the ball again after a puzzlingly bad ground game in 2020 (except against Michigan, lol). I was tempted to write off UW after their ugly opening loss to Penn State, but last week showed that the PSU defense is for real, in a way that Notre Dame definitively is not. Remember how Alabama ground Notre Dame into paste in the [Rose] Bowl last year in the most boring way possible? Get ready for some deja vu in this one. ND: 10--UW: 21

Schweinfurth: For all the expectations Notre Dame had this year, they have been very underwhelming. The Irish defense has struggled and the offense doesn't have much identity. Wisconsin knows who they are and are going to bludgeon the inside of Notre Dame defensive line. This game is going to be a dirty, knockdown game. Perfect for the Badgers: ND: 17--UW: 21
Seeberg: Oh the irony here.  Former Wiscy QB doing Wiscy QB like things (you know, like sub-50% completion rates) against his former squad.  You would expect some solid motivation there, but the Golden Domers just aren't as good as their ranking would indicate.  Kinda like last year, and the year before, and damn near every year from Charlie Weis onward.  Not likely a pretty game here, but score one for the B1G.  ND: 13--UW: 20

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm slightly intrigued here...but only slightly.  Arkansas ran Texas out of the building, but that's because Texas is back (to being bad).  A&M was the chosen one to take down Bama...but....they've been super meh so far.  While Arkansas was flashy with the smashmouth football, I don't think they've played a real team yet.  Now, the Aggies are going to have just enough dumb to make this close, but I think they pull it out in one that is closer than the experts think.  TAMU: 30--Ark: 23

Hoying: When are we going to stop using Texas as a measuring stick for other teams? Ever since Colt McCoy's bones were ground to make Nick Saban's bread back in 2009, the Longhorns haven't had fewer than 3 losses in any non-COVID shortened season, and I don't put a great deal of stock in Arkansas punting UT back to Austin back in week 2. I mean, good for Arkansas that they aren't awful anymore, and LOL at Texas in their preview of what a nightmare SEC life will be, but Texas A&M has been living in SEC world since 2012, and they haven't lost to the Hogs in 9 meetings since joining up. The Aggies haven't been the sharpest tools in the shed this season either, struggling way, way too hard against Colorado while the Hogs were pummeling Texas, but this is an A&M team that barely missed out on the Playoff last year, and I don't think Arkansas has closed the gap quite yet. TAMU: 24--Ark: 21

Schweinfurth: To be honest, I really haven't watched much of these two teams. I do know that TAMU doesn't look like a team that argued to be the #4 seed last year. Arkansas will make this one interesting, and I might have picked them if this was at home (stupid neutral site games). Jimbo squeaks another one out. TAMU: 28--Ark: 27
Seeberg:  Well, the Aggies started the season with a lot of hype, the team of the season that can challenge Bama in the west (LOL).  Three pedestrian wins later, including a 10-7 snoozefest over mediocre Colorado, and that moniker is threatening to be replaced by the Razorbacks, buoyed by a win over still-not-back Texas.  I don't really trust either of these teams much, particularly with a young QB Calzadas at TAMU taking over for just his second start, only mustering 34 points against New Mexico.  The unit I trust most, however, is the Aggies' D giving up just 17 points through 3 weeks.  Forcing a couple turnovers and winning the field position battle should settle the young QB enough to sneak out a W.  TAMU: 24--Ark: 17

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: RIVALRY RENEWED!! Schiano enters this Titanic struggle of undefeateds in a most un-Buttgers fashion.  The Scarlet Knights believe they are going to win, but Syracuse this is not.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sold on the maize and blue yet.  This game provides a level 2 test for the Wolverines (more than Rutgers has been since....), but I don't see the Knights ready to break through yet.  Michigan has been running the same "Look at how good we are against crappy teams" (wouldn't mind if OSU tried this in 2021), but can they up the game when the talent gets closer to even.  No, Rutgers doesn't have Michigan level talent, but it's closer than Northern Illinois.  The Wolverines will win convincingly, but Schiano won't let the team get destroyed. RU: 17--UM: 42 

Hoying: I'll admit, this matchup was a lot more intriguing on paper before Rutgers' best defender decided to have a drive-by paintball shooting and got suspended from the team. Rutgers ground out a steady road win over Syracuse, sandwiched between two obliterations of lesser opponents. Greg Schiano is starting to recapture the magic, and the Scarlet Knights aren't a gimme game in the Big Ten East anymore (more on that next week). That being said, Rutgers does not appear to be quite on the same level as their oldest Big Ten rival, as the Wolverines are on an absolute tear to start the 2021 season. Yeah, they're not playing great teams, and yeah, McNamara appears to be your run-of-the-mill Harbaugh quarterback, but, to put it mildly, the running game is going to be a bit of a problem. The Wolverines have two running backs on pace for 1,000 yards, with Blake Corum within striking distance of doubling that mark. Michigan hasn't averaged 5 yards per carry in any Harbaugh era season. This year they're averaging 7. We've seen hot starts turn sour for the maize and blue under Harbaugh before, but if this squad can escape Camp Randall next week, they might not taste defeat until at least November. Michigan keeps rolling for now. RSUNJ: 14--UM: 35

Schweinfurth: Schiano keeps building and building at New Jersey's state school, but Harbooger just has more talent at Michigan. Look, the Wolverines can run the ball and have an identity. That much has been established and I think that's how this game will go. I can totally see Michigan getting a decent lead and the Rutgers busting out the trick plays. It's what they do. Michigan wins, but Buttgers scores some stupid TDs late. RU: 24--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Are...are the Wolverines back?  Certainly seems more likely than the Longhorns at least.  Bringing Schiano back to Rutgers where he had them up to #2 in the country at one point (yes, you read that right) was pure genius and it's already starting to pay dividends.  He needs another year or two to fill out the roster his way, however, and last year is looking more and more like a fluke for the maize and blue.  I don't like it either.  I FINALLY got the Cooper-year jitters out of my system and now they're competent again?  Damn.  RU: 20--UM: 34

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: Ok....Akron is bad.  Like really, REALLY bad.  So bad that Ryan Day has chosen to rest his starter in the game.  This is an interesting move as it doesn't happen in college very often, but I think it's pretty savvy.  Look, OSU has struggled in the first 3 games (even though Oregon is really good), but you can see that Stroud isn't quite right.  Part of it is mental (I'm sure he got death threats and the like from idiots on social media) but there is also a physical component with his shoulder.  The QB room for OSU is stacked, and this will give the staff some time to test these prospects under fire while not risking much (...hopefully).  Coach Day should (in my opinion) completely throw all support behind C.J., but let him rest.  There will be more internet coaches that will tell him it's time to change QBs, but this is an opportunity to learn without crushing your starter.  Trust Henderson, Olave, and Wilson to make explosive plays and hope the defense can get a little better each week.  The line is still a monstrous 48.5 points.  OSU could cover it, but I think the dogs will be called off early.  I'm just hoping it's not raining :(.  Akron: 10--OSU: 52
Hoying: I can't get a bead on whether this season of Buckeye football has been weirder than recent years. 2018 had the sudden and unexpected problems on defense and in the running game, which we never really figured out and which never really went away. 2015 had an offense largely intact from piling up big points in a National Championship run suddenly grind to a halt, only to reawaken once it was too late. And of course 2020 speaks for itself. But something seems really off this year. Multiple players are unavailable for mysterious reasons, quarterback play is wildly inconsistent, defensive play is consistently awful, and there just seems to be an air of general unease, like everyone's not pulling in the same direction. At least we seem to have figured out the running game for the next 3 years (heck, let's get Trey Henderson enough NIL money to stick around for 4). The QB situation will be fascinating to watch over the coming weeks. It shouldn't (SHOULDN'T) be much of a task for McCord or Miller to put up big numbers against an awful Akron team, but I can't imagine that will move the needle from Day's commitment to Stroud as the starter. When Braxton Miller was nursing a knee injury in 2013, Kenny Guiton put up JV-mode video game numbers against FAMU after rolling Cal the week before, and then he disappeared for the rest of his career. But when Justin Zwick went down against Iowa in 2004, Troy Smith seized the job and didn't look back until the Heisman Trophy Trust called his name. For the fourth time this young season, I have no idea what to expect from this game, other than I don't foresee a Buckeye loss as a possibility. Hopefully the ball will find a few more receivers' hands (welcome back, Chris Olave), and Henderson can cement his spot as one of the top running backs in the country. And defense? Use this opportunity to try everything else you've got in the bag. You're going to need to be ready for Rutgers next week (not a joke). Akron: 17--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This game just got spicy. I've been saying it for two weeks. I think Stroud's shoulder is worse off than the coaching staff is letting on. You don't miss some fall camp days for no reason. Props to CJ for battling through, but sitting him for this game is the right call. Let's be honest, the Buckeyes could tell Akron they are running every play and still get at least 5 yards per carry. I am very interested to see how Kyle McCord and Jack Miller look (yes, Akron is bad). Guys will be open, but if they can hit Olave and Wilson deep and in stride, we may have a conversation here. Defensively, get the pass rush right and tighten up the zones a bit more. There is a huge problem if Akron throws for more than 200 yards. Score early and often, get the starters out and stay healthy. Akron: 13--OSU: 59
Seeberg:  From week one I had my concerns about Stroud, watching him roll his arm over periodically, as if something was tweaked in his shoulder.  Nice to know I'm not paranoid, and definitely a good idea to rest him against the MAC bottom feeder.  Olave going catchless last week, to me, was a function of Stroud's arm not feeling great, the fact that he locks in on Wilson a lot, and a stupid holding penalty.  Getting CO2 going again is crucial, and the play action game should work as we are capable of running for a half-marathon's worth of yards on the Zips.  Run it early, throw it in the middle, rest everyone late.  Tyreke Smith back should aid the front 4 getting pressure also.  Drop 7, work some coverages and keep somebody under 20 please?  Akron: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: NC State over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg:  South Florida over BYU

Week 3: Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it! Fix it!

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 7-2 (1-1 upset)
1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 6-3 (2-0 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 5-4 (1-1 upset)

Well, one of these years Ohio State will win a nonconference home game of consequence. The Buckeyes haven't had one since...2002 over top 10 Washington State? 1995 over Notre Dame? At least the Domers are returning next season. Good for what ails ya. Until then, let's just hold our collective breaths that CJ Stroud can suddenly turn into 2018 Dwayne Haskins or 2020 Justin Fields, because he's going to have similar defenses backing him up for the foreseeable future.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators

Draper: Is this the year that Bama starts the inevitable decline that affects everyone? HAHAHAHAHAHA.... no.  Saban is just chugging along and will continue.  UF has an interesting situation at QB with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, but it's still Bama.  Even though Saban has transitioned to focusing on the offense, they don't suck on Ds.... This isn't a hard call.  Death...Taxes...Bama...Bama: 38--UF: 24

Hoying: Florida is 2-0, has an average margin of victory of 21.5 over those two games, is playing at home in one of the loudest stadiums in the world, and is locked in as a 2+ TD underdog. Yup, the annoyingly invincible Tide are back, and they're likely still a little steamed at the only team that played them within single digits last season. The Gators are likely to take a step back this year now that they're fresh out of juggernaut Kyles. As for Bama, well, they seemingly lost a whole starting NFL team's worth of talent from last year's team, even with a free year of eligibility and NIL money waiting for them in Tuscaloosa this season, but they haven't slowed down. The Tide continue to rebuild at a level that Ohio State can only dream at (just don't look up their leading receiver). Then again, Clemson already lost this year, and Ohio State already lost...maybe Bama could...no. Just no. BbaM (Bama by a Million) until further notice. Bama: 34--UF: 20

Schweinfurth: Is there really any thought that Bama wins this game by a million. Florida is a top half SEC team, but there is the top few teams in the SEC, a gulf that dwarfs the Pacific Ocean, and then Bama. Florida has some good players to keep it close for a half, maybe, but Bama wins this going away. Bama: 35--UF: 20
Seeberg:  Honestly I should dig into this game more, but, I mean...it's Bama.  Home crowd might keep the Gators around but, I mean...it's Bama.  You get the idea.  Bama: 42--UF: 17

Auburn Tigers @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Draper: Imagine my surprise with an SEC team travelling to a home site outside of the footprint...let alone against a ranked team.  The question is: is Penn State really a top program at this point or was the snoozer in Madison simply noise? I honestly have no faith in the Lions long term outcomes, but I know very little about Auburn.  For this game, an additional question is the USC issue hanging over James Franklin.  Franklin strikes me as a guy who is good to jump as soon as an opportunity arises. That being said, I think the white out in Happy Valley will be enough to pull out a close win, even with the distractions. Aub: 17--PSU: 20

Hoying: Kudos to Auburn for making the trip out of the deep south for a true road game in Big Ten country. Penn State's already won a road game of their own, storming into Camp Randall in their season opener and escaping with an ugly win. I suppose any win's better than giving the game away in pylon-reaching fashion like they did to open the season against Indiana last year. But I didn't leave the Wisconsin game feeling particularly impressed with the Nittany Lions. Clifford is just not the answer at QB, and the return of Noah Cain hasn't been the shot in the arm that the running game was hoping for either. Auburn was the height of mediocrity in 2020 and got blasted by Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl, and goodness knows I have no faith in BoNix as any kind of catalyst for the Tiger attack, but I can't shake the feeling that Penn State's opening win was more a function of Wisconsin haplessness than any harbinger of great things for the Lions this year. Auburn does just enough to outscore a sluggish Penn State offense. Aub: 17--PSU: 16

Schweinfurth: This is an absolute conference measuring stick for the B1G. Auburn is a middle of the pack SEC team, and it would be really bad for the B1G for Penn State to lose this one. The Lions have a very good defense, but Sean Clifford is the limiting factor on this team. I really can see this being a QBLOLZ game, because BoNix and Clifford just make dumb decisions sometimes. In the end, I'll take the White Out and Doctson making the play for the win. Aub: 14--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  How is Bo Nix still at Auburn?  I feel like he's been there about as long as Aaron Craft suited up on the hardwood for the scarlet and gray.  In any event, we've got two supposedly elite quarterbacks with a stable of "meh" around them battling this one out.  The Tigers have demolished two lousy opponents thus far but the Nittany Lions have been tested, squeaking out a win in Madison.  Things may be starting to get stale for Franklin in Happy Valley, and the allure of his home state Trojans are calling.  A win here probably gets him another couple hundred thousand a year when he bolts.  Seems like good enough motivation to me.  Aub: 16--PSU: 24

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: Whee....no one cares! What's weird is there was all this talk of issues in the desert, but Herm apparently just plays to win the game and doesn't care about off field issues.  BYU had a nice last week and return home to glory.  They're riding high and I think the wave continues.  Cougs nip the Devils.  ASU: 28--BYU: 30

Hoying: You didn't know this was a ranked matchup, did you? Maybe you didn't stay up late enough last week to see BYU take it to their Holy War rivals to break a 9-year streak of futility in that series. I don't blame you; I wanted to go to bed around 4 PM last Saturday too. Why is Arizona State ranked? I don't know; it's hard to find 25 teams good enough to put on the ballot. You can tell the pollsters are desperate, as they're still ranking teams like Miami, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Anyway, BYU is making its penultimate Pac-12 tour before it joins the big(ish) boys of the Big 12 in 2023, and the Cougars are still underdogs in this one after dispatching Arizona and Utah to start the season. What have the Sun Devils done to inspire such confidence? Blow out UNLV? I know the Cougs don't have Zach Wilson anymore but his absence doesn't seem to be slowing them down. BYU rides the disrespekt train to a 3rd straight win over the Pac-12. ASU: 24--BYU: 27

Schweinfurth: Yay, Pac-12 After Dark No One Cares Game of the week! Yea these two are ranked, but I just can't steel myself to stay up that late on Saturday night for PAC-12 ROFL. Let's go with BYU here. ASU: 27--BYU: 30
Seeberg:  Both teams have looked decent thus far with the Cougars posting the most noteworthy win, beating their in-state rivals the Utes last week.  The Sun Devils, a la our Buckeyes, have put up a lot of yards but have struggled to pay off those drives with touchdowns, settling for 5 FGs in the first 2 weeks of the season despite an excellent rushing attack.  Too many FGs against a higher quality opponent may very well be their undoing (looking at you, Tressel vs. Texas in 2005).  The Cougars sneak out another resume-boosting W.  ASU: 23--BYU: 27

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: It's been 3 years since the Scarlet and Gray came to the Shoe to lick their wounds in season.  There is a real question of how the team will respond.  The media storm of the 'unimaginable upset' by the 11th ranked team in the nation (no matter how crazy narrative is) could have lasting repercussions.  I think Day is going to be successful in motivating the troops after a loss, but we haven't seen it yet.  Much will fall on the shoulders of CJ Stroud and the defense.  Will the storm surrounding Coach Coombs linger? I have faith that Day will right the ship and move forward.  The offense will be (and was) fine --not great, but fine-- last week.  The defense needs fixing, and that's not a simple change.  Expect the growing pains to continue on defense, but this week should be a nice 'get-right' game.  The line gets some pressure (finally) and makes for a smooth outing.  Tulsa: 17--OSU: 52
Hoying: Good luck figuring out the Golden Hurricane. They opened the season by losing to UC Davis, then turned around and played Oklahoma State to a standstill. Hmm...who else looked like garbage week one and then turned completely around for a road game against a marquee opponent...Should the Buckeyes be worried about Tulsa? The way they're mismanaging their (admittedly undeveloped) defensive personnel, the Buckeyes should be afraid of any team that can move the ball. Also, the run game's not working, and while Stroud is looking better than a freshman QB usually has any right to, we're in the age of Tua and Trevor and all kinds of first-year phenoms, and CJ just hasn't hit that transcendent level yet. This team has some serious soul-searching to do over the next couple of weeks before Big Ten season restarts, and it doesn't look like there are going to be any gimme games in the East this year. The rebuild starts now. Don't embarrass us again. Tulsa: 24--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: What a mess. The Buckeyes were absolutely out coached and out schemed last week. This makes the second time in three games that the Bucks have no answer running a cover-3 shell with no creativity in the front seven. This MUST change. Nothing allows for the type of changes that need to be made like two straight over matched opponents. Look, I'm not delusional. This defense is does not have the players we are used to on the d-line and in the secondary. It will take a few weeks to get the D right, but why not try a few things? Tulsa is going to score a bit. It's just what this defense has done lately. With that said, there shouldn't be a match up Tulsa can win when Ohio State has the ball. Ryan Day is going to bludgeon Tulsa with Williams and Henderson early and take the top off with Wilson and Olave late. Get right. Get some confidence and move on to Akron. Tulsa: 21--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Well, welcome to 2018.  And no, it's not 2014 Ohio State that lost a marquee matchup week 2, took a few weeks more to find their stride, and peaked at the perfect time.  This is 2018 we-better-outscore-everyone mode.  Mediocre schemes can be overcome with elite personnel.  Mediocre personnel can be elevated with great schemes that put them in consistently correct positions.  We have neither.  On the other side of things, 615 yards of offense last week looked great, but red zone play calling continues to be an issue.  CJ actually isn't all too bad.  He's not making it through a ton of progressions yet (nor should he as a second-week starting QB), but he does hang in the pocket well and doesn't bolt immediately.  The accuracy as compared to Fields or Haskins, however, just isn't there yet.  The run scheme needs more diversity.  No counters/misdirections and CJ isn't pulling the ball to run either (also a la 2018 Haskins) despite seeming a capable runner.  The big run Miyan Williams had 2 weeks ago?  It was a mistake, he was supposed to go left with the entire line but heard the call wrong and went right where nobody was home.  Even accidental misdirection helps.  Find some run diversity, find ANY diversity with the defensive scheme, and get some mojo going before conference play resumes.  Tulsa: 20--OSU: 49

Upset Special
Draper: Fresno State over UCLA
Hoying: Purdue over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Michigan State over Miami
Seeberg:  Tulane over Ole Miss

Fix it! Fix it! Fix it!

Week 2: Duck Soup

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 5-1 (1-0 upset)
1.) Draper 5-1 (0-1 upset)
3.) Hoying 4-2 (1-0 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 4-2 (0-1 upset)

Intro text here

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: If you like punts, low scores, questionable decisions, and corn, this is the game for you. The Cy-Hawk has always been one of the most 'meh' national rivalry games out there (so much so that there is a much better name). This was supposed to be the year of the Clone, but the Hawkeyes are my sneaky B1G West pick.  They easily dispatched the Hoosiers last week, while ISU sleepwalked through UNI.  I think Ferentz's squad has what it takes to be the surprise team of the year and they keep it going.  Pain in Ames is the norm so sign that contract extension Kirk.  Maybe Matt Campbell can find solace in a lower program like Michigan in the near future.  Iowa: 20--ISU: 17 

Hoying: Welcome to the most Iowa of Iowa games, a game so intricately tied up in Hawkeye State identity that the last iteration featured a literal punt to win to clinch the game for Kirk Ferentz's squad. Iowa State doesn't win the Cy-Hawk trophy very often, outside of a weird 5-year stretch that climaxed in screwing the Hawkeyes out of the 2002 National Championship (thanks again, ISU). Most of the time Iowa State loses because they suck, but that seems not to be the case this year. The 'Clones are ranked in the top ten going into this matchup for the first time ever, and only the second time as a ranked team at all. And they usually play Iowa close even when they're just struggling for bowl eligibility. Last year the Cyclones had by far their most successful season ever, culminating with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon, but they looked like poo against Northern Iowa last week. Is there any reason to expect last year's magic to continue? The 'Clones were decent on both sides of the ball last year and still have a lot of their key pieces intact, including QB Brock Purdy, so anything is possible. As for the Hawkeyes, they had their own slow start and strong finish last year, and unleashed hell on the trendy Big Ten dark horse Indiana Hoosiers last week. Yeah, there were two pick sixes to pad the victory margin, but do you remember what Michael Penix did to Ohio State last year? He did absolutely none of that against Iowa. If the Hawkeyes can stop a high-flying Hoosier attack at full strength, I think they can stop Iowa State as well. Iowa: 24--ISU: 20

Schweinfurth: El Assico is a top ten matchup! I think Iowa State got caught looking ahead next week. Don't look past the fact that Iowa had to play a conference game last week. I'll take the Cyclones. Iowa: 17--ISU: 24
Seeberg:  This is an intriguing matchup.  The debate here is how much stock you really want to put into week one.  The Cyclones are a popular sleeper pick to make the playoff (not sure if starting #7 counts as a sleeper?) but struggled against Northern Iowa, an FCS squad that routinely plays the big boys tough.  Iowa's 34-6 beatdown of overrated Indiana (when was the last time that adjective applied to their FOOTball team??) looks good, but not only were the Hoosiers overvalued, aside from a couple flukey pick 6's the game didn't feel all that dominant by the Hawkeyes (see:  303 total yards to 233).  Still, Iowa State struggled to score in their opener, and the Hawkeyes' D is absolutely legit.  This may not be the game that's the belle of the ball this week, but football purists (read:  old guys) will enjoy the grind.  Hawkeyes clamp down and get the rivalry W.  Iowa: 20 -- ISU: 13

Washington Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Who's excited for this clunker? Let's be honest: would anyone be surprised is Michigan laid an egg and Washington remembered how to play football? I wouldn't be shocked, but that's not the expectation.  Jim Harbaugh has been really good in the meaningless games that 'feel' important.  The shine was removed by the Grizz, but Washington is still a living breathing team.  I think the Huskies make a game out of this since everyone will have written them off, but this is the type of big stage game that Michigan wins (a dumb one).  UW: 24--UM: 30
Hoying: Many had this game circled as a possible (probable?) loss for the Wolverines before the season started, but that was before the Huskies lost to Montana of all teams. Nine months to get ready for an FCS opponent and you come up with 7 points. This is a real torch and pitchfork game for the Wolverines. Losing to terrible Michigan State last year would normally have brought out the lynch mobs for Harbaugh, but old Jimmy weaseled out of it with the pandemicmonium excuse. Lose to Washington, though, and the goodwill will likely run out. The Wolverines looked good in their opener, and while we've seen fake good September Michigan before, I don't think a team that threw 3 picks against Montana is going to be the one to expose the Wolverines. UW: 17--UM: 27

Schweinfurth: Washington is not good (see losing to a FCS team). That type of loss, can send a team reeling for a couple weeks. TTUN should win easily. UW: 14--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Such a weird weekend.  Two Pac-12 teams travel east to take on B1G squads.  The cross-country trek rarely helps these teams out.  Though to be fair, before last weekend I still would've taken the Huskies in this one.  After an awful offensive output against Montana of all teams, however, that tune has changed.  The Wolverines looked downright competent last week, even on offense!  Their thrashing of a run-of-the-mill in-state MAC opponent turned heads- which is telling of the current state of the program but, at minimum, a positive start.  Maybe the Huskies were lulled to sleep by their FCS opponent week one and prepping for the maize and blue week two?  Perhaps.  Still, with even a semi-reasonable offensive unit the Ann Arbor A-holes should be a 9 or 10-win team.  Tough to imagine a team that managed a whopping 7 points against Montana scoring enough in the big house to win.  I'll take the home team *cringe*.  WASH: 17-- UM: 31

Oregon Ducks @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: My 3 questions last week were: Stroud, running attack, and pass defense.  I'd rate them A-, B+, and C.  The pass defense is still an issue but it seemed like we were trotting out a whole new squad (which we were).  The main question this week is can we score without the big explosive play?  We didn't grind any scoring drives last week because we didn't have to.  I think we'll still get some explosion from Olave, Wilson, and WIlliams, but it will be interesting to see Stroud in a short field.  I honestly know little about Oregon, but I'm hopeful that the OSU pass rush will get a little more pressure without facing 8 offensive lineman. Thibideoux could make things interesting, but the Buckeye Oline held strong last week.  I'm optimistic that the return to the Shoe will yield Buckeye goodness, even if there is a little hiccup now and then.  Ore: 24--OSU: 38
Hoying: So how good did the Buckeyes look last weekend? The offense was explosive, racking up their highest yardage per play in program history. I would still like to see what they can do in the red zone, as the Buckeyes' last two non-Alabama losses were built largely on struggles inside the 20. I'm also ready for Teague to finally be put to pasture to make way for the new fellas. Love the kid, but Williams and Henderson just have a burst that he doesn't. As for the defense, well, it's a journey, one that might be helped if we had anyone in the back 7 with any experience. Fortunately, like Minnesota, Oregon is a run-first team, which means that the Silver Bullets should be able to lean heavily on another stellar set of big nasties up front. There's no Justin Herbert or Marcus Mariota to harass the Buckeye secondary this time. The recipe for success is simple: run the ball and stop the run. Sprinkle in some Stroud to keep them honest. Ohio State is built to succeed under these conditions. Buckeyes make it 10-0 against the Ducks. Ore: 24 OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: The Buckeye defense isn't as bad as everyone thinks. They have trouble stopping one pass play that Minnesota ran over, and over and Mo Ibraham is a beast. With that said, the Buckeye offense is just too explosive for most teams to hang. Thibodeaux being banged up certainly won't help the Ducks chances here. First game in front of the home fans in over 600 days? Forget about it, Bucks win big: Ore: 21--OSU: 42
Seeberg:  Disclaimer:  I will be in the stands for this one.  I was also in the stands the last time these two played and, well...yeah that went well didn't it?  I've seen several outlets talking about how badly CJ Stroud played in the first half last week.  I didn't see it.  His one pick was a correct read to an open receiver that was just thrown behind him (and tipped).  He didn't force throws or get rattled and bolt out of the pocket immediately.  Nor did he need to:  The offensive line was incredible and the rushing game went for 8 yards a carry.  The Ducks' one-man wrecking crew DE Thibodeaux will not be healthy either, trying to rehab a sprained ankle during their lackluster one-score win over Fresno State to open the season.  I also see nothing resembling an Ibrahim-caliber RB on their roster.  The Silver Bullets, specifically the back 7, still have lots of work to do, and getting some guys healthy in the secondary will help as well (early indications are that Proctor will play but Banks' status is still up in the air).  I also thought Ronnie Hickman looked good as the bullet.  A bit undersized but an excellent tackler who plays with good leverage and keeps the game in front of him.  It may be close early again, but all signs point to a solid, workman like W.  Score prediction purely for nostalgia.  DUCKS: 20-- OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Appalachan State over Miami (App State has good luck vs. UM)
Hoying: BYU over Utah
Schweinfurth: Stanford over USC
Seeberg:  Toledo over Notre Dame