Week 5: From Coast to Coast to Coast

Standings:

1.) Draper 17-3 (0-4 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (1-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 14-6 (0-4 upset)

The ranks of the undefeated continue to dwindle as the Playoff picture continues to take shape. Just kidding, it's going to be Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and the yearly rotating hapless sacrificial team. But since we have to play out the farce, this week we travel from Atlantic to Pacific (gee, the football is terrific) and down to Dixie's sunny shore on the Gulf Coast, where three pairs of teams put their perfect records on the line to chase the Big Three.

FRIDAY

Washington Huskies @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: A nice little battle of unbeatens to start the weekend.  Washington has surprised with a win over underwhelming MSU, but a win is a win and Michael Penix has the Huskies making a little noise in the Pac12.  While I (like the rest of the world) have watched very little Pac12 football, this could be a fun back and forth game with Chip Kelly turning the knobs on the Bruins sideline.  In a matchup of fairly even teams, I tend to lean on the home field advantage.  After seeing the 'packed houses' the Bruins have been trotting out in the Rose Bowl, the advantage should go to UW.  Penix shows that B1G castoffs thrive in other conferences (see Joe Burrow).  UW: 37--UCLA: 27 
Hoying: Is the Chip Kelly experiment finally working in Los Angeles? For the first time in 5 years, the Bruins have started the season 4-0. Yeah, they played a Michigan-esque schedule to get there (not a coincidence: both these schedules suck because Michigan decided to dodge a home-and-home with UCLA starting this season), but better to beat bad teams than lose to them (just ask Texas A&M and Miami). Their purple opponents have already made one appearance on Let's Go Bucks! during this short season on their way to throttling Michigan State, who, newsflash, might not be any good either. But the Huskies have won comfortably in each of their 4 matchups so far this year behind the nation's most prolific pass offense. UCLA has been fine on pass D but they haven't seen anything like what the Huskies are cooking up behind Michael Penix & friends. USC will get their monster matchup later this season, but it'll be in Vegas, not in Los Angeles. UW: 37--UCLA: 31
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun late Friday night tussle. Just for kicks, I pulled up some of the season stats and these two teams are the same. Almost the same average score, same total yards, same points allowed, same yards allowed. This could be a full on offensive onslaught as both teams average over 40 points a game. Washington, to this point, has played the tougher schedule and Michael Penix, Jr. is off to a great start. It just all seems to be in alignment for the Huskies this year. UW: 42--UCLA: 38
Seeberg: Well look at that, UCLA is undefeated!  That record includes a miraculous escape against South Alabama.  Take away the cardinal direction and that would be impressive.  With it?  Not so much.  Nearing South Central Louisiana State territory (I'll take a Scotch and water, hold the Scotch).  Regardless, Wash U comes to town and will enjoy playing in front of dozens of people I'm sure.  Penix has not been sacked yet this season.  That's key not only for his effectiveness but also to keep his injury-prone self upright and available week by week.  The Bruins may get him on the ground, but my guess is it won't be often enough.  Huskies keep rolling.  UW: 41--UCLA: 27

SATURDAY

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Both of these teams have been fighting the 'are they reeeeally any good?' tag all year.  Clemson was the supposed #4 team, but has struggled of late while preseason hopes abounded in Raleigh to almost be silenced in week 1.  I really don't know how this one shakes out as I don't trust either team.  I'm pretty confident that the best unit in the game is the Clemson defense and a big game in Death Valley is a tall order no matter the Tigers' strength.  Gut tells me to lean on those that have been there before.  Clemson pulls out a close win before facing the ACC Atlantic juggernaut in FSU.  NCSU: 17--Clem: 20
Hoying: Across the college football landscape, the quality teams are concentrated in three divisions: the Big Ten East, the SEC...East? (no, really), and the ACC Atlantic. It seems like every week the Clemson Tigers are forced to prove themselves worthy of a return to the Playoff path by beating some undefeated upstart trying to deny them the Atlantic crown for the second consecutive season. After last week's fireworks show against Wake Forest, it's time to dial it down for a team that seems to be out-Clemsoning the Tigers this season. The Wolfpack may have had trouble containing East Carolina in the second half in Week 1, but they sure didn't allow whatever the heck happened to Clemson last week in Winston-Salem. The good news for the Tigers is that their offense showed its first signs of life in the post-Trevor Lawrence world in eking out a win against Wake. I think the Tigers remain vulnerable this season and I see them dropping a game at some point (a visit to Tallahassee is imminent), but home field tilts this just too far away from NC State for them to score the upset this time. NcSt: 20--Clem: 21
Schweinfurth: What will the weather look like for this game? We've seen games played at Clemson in a tropical storm before and it was something to behold. NC State has a defense with a pulse, and DJ has struggled at times. I expect this game to be low scoring. I really don't trust DJ to make the game winning play. Wolfpack win. NCST: 13--Clem: 10
Seeberg:  Well Clemson has looked downright borderline competent on offense of late.  Then again, Wake Forest carved them up to the tune of 38 points in regulation before ultimately falling in double OT last week.  Another road test for the Tigers this week but let's face it, the Wolfpack haven't won a big game since...Jim Valvano was running around searching for someone to hug.  And remember, this is a team that had Philip Rivers 20 years ago and Russell Wilson 10 years ago.  Rivers lost in triple OT in the 'Shoe while Wilson transferred to that noted QB haven *checks notes*  Wisconsin??  Yikes.  The Tigers may well slip up somewhere, but it won't be here, hurricane or not.  Clem: 20--NCSU: 13

Kentucky Wildcats @ Ole Miss Rebels

Draper: Is Kentucky for real? in football???? They do sport the best player on the field in Will Levis, but Ole Kiffikins has the Rebs undefeated after games against paper bags.  The Kentucky win over Florida is by far the best resume builder on either roster, but road wins in the SEC are really tough (unless you're Bama).  Now, it needs to be noted that the Wildcats took down the Mighty Gators in the Swamp, but do they have 2 big road wins in them?  Kiffin challenged the crowd in a press conference this week, but even with UK in the top 10....it's still UK.  Regardless, I'm going to stick with some regression to the mean and deviate from my peers.  The Rebels and USC transfer Jaxson Dart cement the SEC West dominance over the 2nd/3rd best SEC East team with a win.  UK: 27--Miss: 30
Hoying: You think these teams were looking forward a bit to this game? Each of them squandered double-digit leads against questionable competition last week to win by a single score each. Kentucky survived due to the play of their QB, while Ole Miss prevailed despite the state of their passing game. We've come a long way since Matt Corral. This year's Rebels rely more on the rushing game; they're the nation's only team with two RBs with 300 yards each (other than our own Pop and Chop). UK didn't really let Florida do anything against them in their single marquee matchup this season, but it's not like the the Wildcats are moving the ball with aplomb either, and that's bad news against an especially stingy Rebel defense. Nevertheless, the Cats' big game experience and star QB power are enough to snag a rare road win against the SEC West. UK: 27--Miss: 24
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is battle tested so far, pulling of the big win at Florida in week 2. Ole Miss really hasn't played anyone to this point. Kentucky can win comfortably if Will Levis can limit the turnovers. And one thing you don't hear about is the Ole Miss D. UK: 35--Ole Miss: 24
Seeberg:    For the first month of the season, the Runnin' Rebs schedule has rivaled that of Michigan.  That's to say it's awful.  An 8-point win over Tulsa is their closest bout to date.  I'm not convinced either of these teams is a contender, but I do know the Wildcats have by far the best win of either team.  Kiffin might try to outscheme Stoops, but his disciplined D should do just enough to escape with a for-the-moment good road win.  UK: 34--Miss: 27

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Schiano has started a little resurgence in the Scarlet Knights to the great 2006 team. Unfortunately....they're not close.  It's hard to write a snipper about a game in which I don't expect anything surprising to happen.  Complacency is the enemy here (and it is real), but I can't envision enough of a letdown for this to swing to Buttgers.  This is a great opportunity for the defense to continue to work the young corners into the rotation and for CJ to continue to pad some numbers with a big 1st half.  Bucks score early and often and Rutgers.....doesn't.  RU: 10--OSU: 63
Hoying: I don't really have anything interesting to say about this game. Rutgers just got blown out by a team without a working offense, and the Buckeyes are working their way into 2019 form. Name your score. And it's not going to get much better going forward. The Buckeye schedule seems to have two real teams (Penn State and TTUN), three possibly OK teams (Iowa, Michigan State, and Maryland), and three candidates for MAC relegation (Indiana, Northwestern, and the team at hand). In seasons like this, you're not happy unless you blow out every team in the latter two sets. You're happy with any win over the big boys, but it's going to be another month until the Bucks get a chance to make State College, PA unhappy. Whom are the Buckeyes playing this week again? Oh yeah, Buckeyes by a million. RU: 3--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: Ahh, time for the annual Rutgers sacrifice. This game is routinely out of hand early and never very close. While Greg Schiano has brought back the swagger he had on his first stint, he is still punching up about 3 weight classes here. This is set up for Stroud to start off something like 10 for 10 passing and Miyan and TreVeyon going for 100 yards each again. Watch out for the kitchen sink play calling by Rutgers, but that's a known quantity now. Bucks win easily. Just stay healthy. RU: 13--OSU: 56
Seeberg:  Barring injury or the Buckeyes beating themselves with penalties and turnovers, there's just no stopping the offense this year.  Remember, the best WR in the country has been absent nearly the entire year- and he won't be needed for this one either.  The Knights may regain some semblance of credibility under Schiano again, but the only scarlet that matters in this matchup is the scarlet and gray.  Stay in rhythm, stay healthy, and keep hanging half a hundred on conference foes.  RU: 17--OSU: 59

Upset Special
Draper: Texas Tech over Kansas State
Hoying: Purdue over Minnesota
Schweinfurth: Iowa over Michigan
Seeberg:  Oregon State over Utah

Week 4: The Unbeaten Face Adversity

 Standings:

1.) Draper 12-3 (0-3 upset)
2.) Hoying 11-4 (0-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-6 (1-2 upset)
3.) Seeberg 9-6 (0-3 upset)

As conference season begins in earnest across the college football landscape, thirty-three unbeaten teams remain, including thirty from across the Power 5. Obviously there are too many for us to feature all of their various matchups here but our quick and dirty half-dozen should give you a good overview at the tough slate in store for many top major conference teams.

Maryland Terrapins @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: I was considering this as an upset special because Maryland is such a volatile program, but the Big House (where fans actually think they can win) makes this a tough trigger.  J.J. McCarthy is the clear September Heisman frontrunner but I anticipate a slight drop when the opponent rises above the JV difficulty in EA Sports.  This game will have a few moments, but Michigan simply has better athletes.  Young Tagovailoa will keep it interesting until Blake Corum pulls away.  Mary: 20--UM: 35
Hoying: I'll be honest: Michigan looks really good this year. Yeah, they've had a chance to beat up on the three blind mice so far, but, as the analysts say, it's not whom you play, it's how you play, and the Wolverines have been playing great. J. J. McCarthy looks like as good a QB the Maize and Blue have had since...Denard? Henne? The head coach himself? The only trouble is we haven't seen him have to respond to adversity at all, and I'm not sure that will happen this week either. Maryland has real actual Big Ten athletes (I suppose) but getting outgained by SMU and barely pulling out a victory doesn't scream "upset threat" to me. Let's see what happens when he has to throw against the Iowa defense next week. As for the Wolverine D, let's see what happens when Penn State comes to town in October. Not a lot of offensive threats until then (yes, that includes you, Maryland). Mary: 10--UM: 34
Schweinfurth: Michigan actually has to play a team with a pulse? This is a nice change from *looks at ranking* playing three of the worst FBS teams in the nation. Do I think Michigan will win this game? Yes. Do I also think that Maryland could have a lead at some past the opening drive? Yes. If there is on thing the Terps can do, it's put up points. I think the Harboogers pull away late, but Maryland will at least put up a fight. Maryland: 28--UM: 42
Seeberg:  Ironically, that squad in the maize and blue we love to hate is in a polar opposite situation to our beloved scarlet and gray.  UM's stellar D may not be quite as elite as last season but the offense appears to be making huge strides whereas our Buckeyes lost a ton of offensive production but the D has stepped up thus far.  What to make of UM?  Nobody knows.  They've destroyed their schedule, which they damn well should, because their SOS is literally the worst in Division I.  Regardless, in comes also-unblemished Maryland to the Big House in the first quasi-test of the season for the Wolverines.  The Terps can score it- their WR room is arguably the best in the conference outside Columbus- and they've recruited relatively well too, but overall their talent depth is still a notch or two below that of UM.  As long as Harbaugh doesn't poop the proverbial bed with the game plan, that talent disparity should show up around late 3rd quarter as they wear the Terrapins down.  Wolverines pull away late.  Mary: 20--UM: 38

Clemson Tigers @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: What is Clemson? They were penciled in as the clear (distant) #4, but do we really have any clue what to expect? The offense is still fairly anemic with a stout defense to keep them afloat.  Now they face last year's ACC Atlantic Champion Demon Deacons.  Winston Salem has some nasty juju in which opposing players always get hurt (see every year FSU is good and plays there--so 10 years ago).  When your team is defense oriented, it's hard for an injury to derail you, so I'll stick with the Tigers, but Wake usually has a trick or two up their sleeve.  Clem: 24--Wake: 17
Hoying: I feel like we've been singing the death of Clemson ever since they lost to the best team in the country by the margin of a pick six to open 2021. Last year they looked awful in a lot of their games against their usual weak ACC slate, but they only lost two more of those games and currently have the nation's longest winning streak at 9. Against all odds, the defense is holding up even after the departure of legendary camera target Brett Venables, but I don't get what's wrong with the offense. Is Dabo's legacy really just built on Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence (with a bit of Kelly Bryant thrown in)? Meanwhile, Wake Forest is having trouble replicating their magical 2021 season (in which they still lost handily to Clemson) as the defense is as bad as ever but QB Sam Hartman isn't up to his dark horse Heisman levels of success from last year. In short, Clemson should be better, and Wake worse, than the last time these two played, so I don't think this should be particularly close. Clem: 31--Wake: 17
Schweinfurth: Clemson just hasn't looked right the last two years. The defense looks fine, but the offense just doesn't have the same punch with D.J. as the QB. Clemson should win this game on the power of their D, but Wake has proved to be a hard out in the past. Clem: 20--Wake: 14
Seeberg:  Make no mistake:  This game is likely to be close.  Clemson's anemic offense keeps a lot of lesser teams competitive, and Wake can score it pretty well.  Unfortunately the Deacons seem to have lost a step from last season, needing a failed 2-point conversion to escape disaster against Liberty las week.  I'd love to see mighty Clemson go down in a stadium that's never even half full (and that I've been to!), but they should do just enough to live to play another day.  Clem: 23--Wake: 17

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Sorry you have to experience this one, Gameday.  The real question: will Anthony Richardson have more TD passes than tackles after this game (so far it's 0 TD passes - 1 tackle).  Tennessee seems to have worked its way up into that 2nd tier SEC East squad with Kentucky, but the Gators have some talent to leverage. The power of Neyland Stadium, Rocky Top, and Mike Stewart will be enough to thwart Napier's upstart campaign.  UF: 20--UT: 27
Hoying: I'm glad I picked Florida to beat Utah in week one, but I don't think the Gators win that game 6 out of 10 times. The Florida offense has gone bye-bye, as their overrated QB can't throw the ball and the run game isn't that impressive either. The defense is...OK...I guess? but not good enough to slow down the juggernaut that Coach Bobby Hill has built down in Knoxville. As long as Rocky Top doesn't fall asleep late in the game like they did against Pitt , we should see Florida slip down another spot to 4th in the SEC East pecking order. Don't sleep on South Carolina, though. UF: 17--UT: 28
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure what to make over either of these two. Florida is propped up by a win over Utah, but got bullied by Kentucky. Tennessee best win to this point is an OT win over Pitt. Ultimately, I think Tennessee has more firepower on offense. Florida has been an interesting turnaround from the mess they had last year, but the Vols just look more well rounded. UF: 17--UT: 21
Seeberg:  Ah yes, my "other" alma mater makes another appearance.  I'm not ready to anoint the Vols as "back" just yet, but Hendon Hooker gives them a fighting chance to get there (well, that and paying literal millions a la TAMU to recruits).  In any event, in comes hated rival Florida who goes as their QB does.  Anthony Richardson is wildly talented but a little too mercurial to trust week in and week out, particularly on the road against a conference rival.  Rocky Top into the night in Knoxville UF: 24--UT: 34

Southern California Trojans @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: USC is wrecking fools out west with Heisman #2 Caleb Williams and Jordan 'chase the $$$' Addison.  While the offense is just churning, the defense is a little bit of a mess.  Did someone say mess? Hello Corvallis.  This has been the place Trojans go to die in the early 2000s...and the Beavers look...competent?  I know there is an imbalance of sheer athleticism, but can the Lincoln Riley push continue? I say sure.  The athletes and scheme will see too much offense for the Trojans for the Beavs to keep up.  USC: 45--Ore St: 30
Hoying: All the attention out west is in Los Angeles after Oregon and Utah faceplanted out of the gate. The Trojans have bought recruited assembled a solid offensive ensemble led by Spencer Rattler's former backup and Pitt's larger-handed offensive weapon from last year. It's a Lincoln Riley team, so expect the offense to be elite. But in order to reach the heights of the great Pete Carroll USC teams, you'll need some defense to go with it, and Oregon State might provide a bit of a test for them. Boise State's not the same Boise State we all knew and tolerated post-Statue of Liberty, but Oregon State still handled them impressively in week 1. And, yes, the Beavs probably should have lost to Fresno State, a team USC just dismantled, but I'm not convinced that USC will be able to slow the Beaver attack to a degree that allows them to dominate this game. USC eventually pulls away to clear a major early hurdle and announce themselves as a genuine championship contender for the first time since 2008. USC: 38--Ore St.: 30
Schweinfurth: Lincoln Riley has brought that Big 12 mantra of all offense, optional defense. The Trojans have put up points in bunches and the Beaver D isn't exactly the most stingy squad, giving up 28 to Montana State. That's not a great tune up for this one. This should be a fun shoot out, but USC's offense is just too much. USC: 56--Ore St.: 42 
Seeberg:  Oregon State is undefeated?  How about that.  One of those wins, incidentally, is a 3-point escape at Fresno State, who USC just whipped last week.  Honestly I'm surprised the Trojans are only favored by 6.  No chance the Beavers can shut down USC at all.  Definitely an entertaining one if you're up late.  USC: 48--Ore St.: 35

Duke Blue Devils @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: The game of the week resides in Lawrence, Kansas...and it's not on the hardwood! Bluebloods (in basketball) collide in a titanic match of undefeated juggernauts.  Duke has been pretty decent for the last decade after years of abject ineptitude while Kansas is the perennial doormat that only knows how to beat Texas.  No more.  It's time for a Jayhawk uprising. Lance Leipold rides this epic start into the loving arms of Trev Alberts and the Huskers.  Duke: 30--KU: 35
Hoying: It's a wide-open Big 12 this season, and guess who's alone at the top? That's right, the 3-0 Kansas Jayhawks, and it's no fluke. The Jayhawks are riding a terrifying rushing attack to average over 50 points a game against actual competition with a pulse (looking at you, TTUN), with a stylish OT win at West Virginia getting them into the conference W category already. Duke, on the other hand, has been feasting on phonies. They needed a goal line fumble to beat Northwestern (the weapon of choice for beating B1G West teams with no offense) and their only other chances to flex have been against Temple and NC Verizon. But again, it's not whom you play, it's how you play, and Kansas has looked much, much better so far. I don't expect anything to change this weekend. Duke: 17--KU: 34
Schweinfurth: It's a Kansas sell out! Seriously. Duke comes rolling in with three, meh wins. Kansas actually has a win over a decent West Virginia team. Both of these teams can put up points in bunches, and I wouldn't expect anything less. The crowd should provide the lift for the Jayhawks to move to 4-0. Duke: 42--KU: 49
Seeberg:  Are either of these teams for real on a playing surface that's 120 yards and not 94 feet?  Not sure.  Duke is hanging its hate on beating NW who, if you'll recall, barely beat an absolutely atrocious Nebraska squad.  Rock chalk has impressive wins over West Virginia and Houston so far.  Add that to home field and it's enough to convince me.  Congrats to Lance Leipold on his $7 million a year from whatever program snatches him at the end of the year.  Duke: 31--KU: 45

Wisconsin Badgers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This game seems pretty similar to the Notre Dame game.  Historically good to great team enters the Shoe with a good defense and questionable offense.  The issues are twofold: 1) Wisconsin's defense is not as good as Notre Dame's and 2) Wisconsin has shown no ability to move the ball.  Braelon Allen was a preseason Heisman contender that has done Jack and Squat so far.  Now, will the OSU defense be able to shut them down like they did Notre Dame? I'm not convinced yet.  I think there will be a few 'what are you doing?' moments for the Bullets, but I'm confident that Stroud and his minions will continue to do work.  This offensive juggernaut has been touched by a few injuries, but they don't turn the ball over and they simply impose their will.  I expect nothing less than a workman like dismantling here.  Biggest spread over Wisky since the 90s? No problem.  UW: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: I'm really trying not to buy into the hype, because the only time the Buckeyes win national championships in my lifetime is when it seems they have no chance to. But once you've showed your hand like Ohio State has this year, there are only two types of games on the schedule: (1) good teams that you don't care how much you beat by (so long as you win), and (2) games where you're only happy with a blowout. And, sadly, if you're not a raggedy mountain cat or a skunk weasel, you don't qualify for category (1) this season. Wisconsin still plays slow plodding Wisconsin defense that's great for stifling overmatched Big Ten opponents, but haven't been able to handle the Buckeye fun and gun since the early days of Jim Tressel (when...everybody could stop us). Graham Mertz is a below-average Wisconsin QB (notwithstanding everyone gushing over him after he eviscerated Illinois to open the 2020 season), and their rushing attack this year is just OK, which is a death knell for any Badger team. Even if the rushing attack were great, I don't think a Ryan Day Ohio State team would just sit back and let a team beat them by running all over them all game...stop laughing...shut up...things are different now........This offense isn't slowing down until Iowa comes to town, and even then I'd like to see what the Hawkeyes can do to stop it. UW: 13--OSU: 41
Schweinfurth: Time to answer the question of, can the Buckeyes stop the run when you know it's coming? This plagued the team last year, and is why Jim Knowles was brought in to revamp the defense. The early returns have been good for the most part. The deep ball has been the Achilles' Heel this far and stopping the run has been much better. Everyone knows they Badgers are going to pound the ball, so can you man up and shut it down? The Badger defense isn't as talented as it has been, but they are still very disciplined and will put up a test for Stroud and company. Ultimately, this offense is getting healthy and is just too much for the Badgers. UW: 13--OSU: 45 
Seeberg:  The best analogy I can conjure up for this iteration of the Buckeyes' opponent this week is as if they are a clone of a clone of a clone.  Eventually things get fuzzy and not quite as high-quality as the original.  The line is good, not great.  The RB is good, not great.  The QB is meh as usual.  When Bucky fires on all cylinders they can bully anyone in the country, but a couple cylinders are missing right now and there's just no way a B- Wisconsin squad can compete for 4 quarters with the Buckeyes.  There's a reason the line has moved 3 full points in the direction of the Buckeyes in just 5 days.  UW: 16--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Rutgers over Iowa
Hoying: Texas Tech over Texas
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Washington
Seeberg:  Tulsa over Ole Miss

Week 3: Drop It, Rocket!

Standings:

1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 7-2 (0-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 6-3 (1-1 upset)
3.) Seeberg 5-4 (0-2 upset)

The best thing about being 2-0 is the chance to feel much, much better than you did at this point last year for reasons we don't need to go into here. Quite a few teams across the country similarly have a chance to go 3-0, and there's even a few one loss teams hanging around the rankings (because why rank a team like Marshall or Appalachian State when Baylor, Pitt, and Utah are available?). Not much will shake up the conference standings this week, but quite a few teams still have a chance to ruin their Playoff hopes by playing that out of conference opponent that was just too tough for them to handle.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Welcome home, Ducks.  It's not the Dawgs (you can breathe again) but BYU is coming off a very nice win over a top 10 Baylor.  This is a game where we find out if Oregon is a quality win for UGA or an overrated pile of poo (looking at you, Notre Dame).  I tend to think these two teams are pretty evenly matched talentwise, but Autzen is a heck of an environment to test the Cougars.  The close win at Baylor was a a major feather in BYU's cap and message that they truly belong in the power 5, but I don't know if they're ready for a big road game in a tough environment, against a quality team.  Autzen tilts the battle to the Ducks (and more chest pounding by the SEC).  BYU: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: One of these teams got the Coach 30 treatment for its only FBS game this year, and the other one just knocked off one of last year's P5 conference champions (and Sugar Bowl champion). OK, I get it. Georgia isn't Baylor (probably). But... BYU beat Baylor without their top two wideouts. I know, Ohio State is doing that every week, but the Cougars were still able to get the air attack going, and now face an Oregon defense that made Stetson Bennett look like Josh Allen (the NFL version, not the Wyoming version). Oregon is somehow favored in this matchup, but BYU should win it straight up. BYU: 31--Ore: 27

Schweinfurth: BYU is getting a ton of hype right now after a huge win last week. Oregon just hasn't lived up to the billing thus far (although most teams would get wrecked by Georgia right now). One of these teams will prove to be way overrated. I think it's Oregon. BYU:35--21
Seeberg:  BYU managed a solid win against defending Big XII champ Baylor last week in spite of being down two of their best WRs.  That type of quality win is tough to ignore.  Oregon, meanwhile, got lambasted against UGA before taking their frustrations out on an FCS squad last week so it's hard to figure out what to make of them.  This game should tell us a lot about both teams.  I, for one, think the home-field advantage in this one tips the proverbial scales to the Ducks and their highlighter-esque uniforms.  Ducks late.  BYU: 24--Ore: 31

 

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Auburn Tigers

Draper: This game holds a lot of the same interest as the previous game...super-duper-meh. These teams have their years of punching for the top tier, but they're not there at this point.  Auburn has really faded into obscurity aside from the random victory (or major choke job) against the Tide.  Penn State seems to just live in the perpetual 'this is the year we finally turn the corner' before MASSIVELY returning to meh-land.  This feels like another 'we're back' game before another crash and burn for the Lions.  Jordan-Hare gives the Tigers a chance, but Auburn simply isn't very good this year.  PSU: 30--Aub: 17
Hoying: These teams may not be in the top 10, but this just might be the highest-stakes game of the week, because it feels like one of these teams is getting ready to fall off a cliff. Penn State, while perhaps not a true national title contender, was nevertheless more often than not in the discussion from about 2005 on, while during the same period Auburn won a title, played for another, and got screwed out of a chance for a third try. But now, Auburn seems to be on an extended losing streak. QB BoNix left for greener and yellower pastures in the Pac-12 for some reason (maybe to get away from Georgia...wait...) and his replacement, TJ Finley, is even worse. Penn State has their own usual problems: so-so QB play, no blocking, and awful play-calling and game management. I got burned believing in Penn State over and over and over last year (except, ironically, against Auburn) and...I'm ready to be hurt again. Auburn is in serious trouble. PSU: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: Has anyone actually watched an Auburn game this year? They seem stuck in no man's land this year. As much as I deride Franklin's coaching decisions, the Lions should win this game. It should be entertaining to see how each team tries to out fail each other.  PSU: 20--Aub: 13
Seeberg:  Kudos to these two squads for setting up a home and home.  PSU snuck out a win last year at home and they're essentially the same team this year, running it back with Sean Clifford.  Auburn is...Bo Nix-less and, amazingly, even worse.  The ceiling with Clifford is pretty low for the Nittany Lions, but the floor is actually pretty high.  Beating an SEC team on the road should earn him a few more starts before the fan base clamors for the freshman backup.  PSU: 27--Aub: 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: All I really know about these teams is that NC State entered the year as the darkhorse in the ACC and narrowly avoided my upset special in week 1.  As for Texas Tech, well, they're undefeated....yay.  This feels like a game the Wolfpack have to win to maintain any momentum going into the ACC slate if they have further aspirations.  I'll lean on the home crowd in Raleigh to be the difference, but I wouldn't be shocked if Texas Tech shows that NC State was a preseason darling flop.  TT: 17--NCSt: 24
Hoying: I know this isn't a ranked matchup. After all, the AP voters have to have some standards. All Texas Tech did was beat ranked Houston last week; they didn't go the extra mile like other Texas teams and lose to Alabama or Appalachian State. Every year, there are a few teams without recent success that are hyped up beyond all reason, and none this year stands out more starkly than the NC State Wolfpack. NC State has not won 10 games in a season since Philip Rivers was slinging the rock back in 2002. NC State did not win the Atlantic division of the ACC in 2021, the one season during the Playoff era in which Clemson and Florida State both faceplanted (Wake Forest won it instead). And this very season, NC State remains in the ranks of the ranked because East Carolina couldn't make an extra point or a field goal in the closing minutes of the season opener (*Bengals flashbacks intensify*). Maybe beating Houston at home in double overtime isn't terribly impressive, but I'll still stick with the hot hand. TTU: 27--NCSt: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, I have no idea about either of these teams. I guess I'll pick the Wolfpack, just because? TTU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg:  Well let's see, what have we here?  The Red Raiders got a resume boosting win against ranked opponent *checks notes* Houston?  Not sure that qualifies.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack were a preseason darling before sneaking out a win against  *checks notes again* East Carolina?  Yikes.  I have serious doubts that either team is "for real" or "back" or whatever terminology we're using these days, but Carter Finley should give the home team a boost before inevitably losing to Duke or another ACC also-ran program.  Wolfpack pull away late.  TT: 24--NCSU: 34

Michigan State Spartans @ Washington Huskies

Draper: A fun weird Power 5 inter-conference matchup. Michigan State is still riding the wave from Mel Tucker's inaugural season, but Ken Walker isn't walking through that door (although he is in Seattle...).  IU legend, Michael Penix leads the Huskies into battle against a familiar foe.  Once again, I don't have much insight into this battle, but I'm intrigued as to what all this means.  I really don't think MSU is that talented with Payton Thorne at the helm, but UW is still rebuilding.  The Seattle venue makes this juicy, but I think I'll lean on the big slobberknockers to get it done on the coast.  I think these teams are more similar than the rankings suggest, but Sparty wins ugly.  MSU: 24--UW: 20
Hoying: Another puzzler: Michigan State is ranked #11, Washington is not ranked, and Washington is favored? Disrespekt is flying in all directions in this matchup. After all the craziness we've seen in the first two weeks of this season, how many teams have looked consistently dominant both weeks? Georgia, Wake, Ole Miss, and, I would argue, these two teams. Sure, they've combined to play 3 MAC teams and Portland State, but we've seen team after team struggle with lesser competition in this young season. MSU QB Payton Thorne is clearly missing WR Jalen Nailor this season (though Jayden Reed is still there) as the Spartans continue to rely on their running game even after the departure of superstar RB Kenneth Walker. Meanwhile out west, QB Michael Penix is doing his best to hold both ACLs intact and recapture some of that 2020 magic. Thankfully he only has to play one Big Ten team this year but unfortunately it's the one at hand. At least his O-line should be better than the atrocious unit that was getting him killed on an annual basis at Indiana. You surely remember what happened the last time the Spartans played a team that could air it out. Heck, Penix himself did it to MSU back in that crazy 2020 season to the tune of a 24-0 whomping. I don't think MSU has magically figured him out, so as long as he stays upright, he should be able to overcome what was all too often a liability of a Husky defense in 2021. MSU: 30--UW: 33
Schweinfurth: This is an interesting one to me and it feels as if this is that annual "Sparty No" game. I do think Michigan State is better than Washington, but Seattle has always proved tricky for B1G teams. Sparty should win, but this is probably closer than it should be. MSU: 28--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here of oft-overlooked power five programs who've done remarkably well in the playoff era (both have made the playoff actually).  Sparty hit transfer portal gold with Kenneth Walker III last season but they've seemed a bit disjointed thus far trying to duplicate that transfer magic.  UW's QB is a name we know well, perennially injured Michael Penix of former Hoosier glory.  I would expect the post-Dantonio Spartans to whip up a solid defensive scheme against a QB they know well, and escape the west coast with a win that may look pretty good late in the season.  MSU: 27--UW: 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Is THE U back? Is A&M garbage? I think the answer is 'not yet' and 'probably not'.  Cristobal is getting the ball rolling in Miami, but it will take time to return to the level they want.  A&M are fresh off an inexplicable loss to App St, but the dirty secret is that the Mountaineers might be pretty good.  I'll credit the Aggies with holding App St to 17 points after the week 1 shootout in Boone, but it's still App St.  The offense is the issue in College Station so Jimbo has moved to all time name candidate and LSU transfer Max Johnson at QB.  I don't think this is enough to ignite the Aggies and return to greatness, but with throws like these, who can ask for more? Seriously, the A&M recruits/athletes are better than the Canes (for now).  Will that translate to success? Who knows? Regardless, I'll roll with the Aggies to 'right the ship' at Kyle Field.  It's too soon for the Canes, but with hype videos like this, the sky's the limit.  UM: 13--TAMU: 20
Hoying: Stop me if you've heard this one. "Oh, now Miami has a great QB. Look out, ACC!" We've been hearing this chorus ever since Brock Berlin took over for Ken Dorsey, and it's never quite panned out. The Hurricanes have won a total of one Coastal division title, which they parlayed into getting pasted by Clemson by 35 in the ACC Championship. I'm not saying that exact result can't happen again this season, but I'm going to be one of the last few on the Miami comeback train. That being said, I don't have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Texas A&M either. If the offense isn't moving the ball against Sun Belt teams, what hope do the Aggies have against a real defense? Does Miami have a real defense? Hard to say, as not many of these guys were starting last year (at least not for Miami; hooray for the transfer portal). A&M is going to get a nasty wake-up call when SEC play begins, although they're already living a nightmare now, but I don't trust Miami's defense to frustrate the Aggies to the extent App State did (am I going insane?). UM: 20--TAMU: 24
Schweinfurth: Last week was fun. TAMU losing to App State was one of the main reasons for that. The blueprint has been laid for how to beat the Aggies. A good run game and bleed the clock paid dividends last week. Here comes Miami. Remember what Mario Cristobal's Ducks pulled off last year against a team that couldn't man up against the run (looking at you Bucks)? Between the App State hangover and another team that will probably pound the ball, I'll take the Canes. UM: 21--TAMU: 17
Seeberg: Breaking news!  The Aggies have switched QBs for this game.  Let's get real though they had less than 100 yards passing AND running against Appalachian State so a quarterback switch is not going to be the panacea for which they're desperately searching.  Reminder, the Tar Heels scored SIXTY-THREE POINTS against our Columbus-beloved App St the week before.  They literally gave up 40 fourth-quarter points and still won.  I get the distinct impression that Jimbo's offensive woes (hey that rhymes!) are going to take more than a week to iron out.  Hurricanes mercifully remove the Aggies from the rankings.  UM: 20-TAMU: 13 

Toledo Rockets @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Here's another placeholder game for the Bucks to fix the mistakes before entering the conference schedule.  The Rockets shoot in at 2-0 and maybe have a little juice hoping to be the first Ohio team to knock off the Buckeyes since Oberlin.  I just can't see it happening.  The Buckeyes look to get JSN and Fleming back this weekend so the rich get richer.  I know many people want JSN held out until Wisconsin, but I think facing the live action is needed to get back into game shape.  The defense was played the bend don't break card, but there appeared to be a few gaps/missed assignments last week.  I'm chalking it up to the opponent and I want to see growth every week (Burke...please start playing like last year and not a chump).  The offense was a little slow out of the gates, but I think it was motivation.  Day and Co. should give the team a little kick in the butt to establish dominance early and allow for some rest in the latter quarters.  Stroud will be fine and should pump in monster numbers as well.  I expect the backups get some play in the 4th as we're on to Wisconsin.  Enjoy us old guys going down the ramp one more time (except for Tyler....he sucks).  UT: 17--OSU: 55  
Hoying: I like these boring writeups when Ohio State is playing well, the opponent is easily manageable, and a blowout is in the cards. There are still a few areas to clean up (secondary, penalties, having healthy receivers) but overall the Buckeyes are firing well on both sides of the ball. Still, I'd like to see one game up to Michigan September Heisman levels of devastation before the B1G slog begins next week, and Toledo is the perfect patsy. They don't throw the ball well, so if the Buckeyes can get up a couple scores early, we could be looking at a Michigan State-level meltdown. And with Jaxon and (maybe) Julian back on the field, and Pop and Chop cooking in the backfield, a couple early scores shouldn't be too tall of an order. UT: 13--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: There isn't much to say here. This game should be over by the end of the first half. I would like to see fewer penalties this week, especially fewer procedural ones. On offense, more TDs than punts this week would be nice (Bucks have punted 10 times already this year). On defense, get Denzel Burke right. Past that? More of the same please. Keep everyone healthy and act appropriately. UT: 10--52
Seeberg:  Ah yes, our yearly "keep some money in the state" game against a MAC foe.  Toledo comes rolling in at 2-0 with a schedule thus far that might even be worse than TTUN's.  My primary concern is the fact that reports suggest JSN might play.  I said it last week and I'll say it again.  Keep.  Him.  Off.  The.  Field.  He is superfluous in this one.  Let him get healthy before we hit conference play.  Julian Fleming, however, hasn't seen much of the field in his time thus far, so getting some game reps for him might be worth it if he's ready.  The offense was pretty hit or miss last week and that rhythm needs to be found relatively soon.  Also, where are the turnovers on defense?  I was told that would be a big part of things and not a single TO has been forced through two weeks, including one week against markedly inferior competition.  Turn the Rockets over, give Stroud a short field, RUN THE DAMN BALL, and get the starters out after the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  Please.  Thank you.  UT: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Oklahoma (SICKOS)
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Louisiana Tech over Clemson
Seeberg:  UTSA over Texas

Week 2: The Amazing Traveling SEC

Standings:

1.) Hoying 4-0 (0-1 upset)
2.) Draper 3-1 (0-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)

The heckles and jeers have finally penetrated the Mason-Dixon line: after years of playing stupid neutral site games (including last week's Superdome farce between LSU and FSU, possibly the stupidest of them all), we have two big name SEC programs venturing outside their comfort zones to visit the unfriendly confines of nonconference opponents. Another SEC opponent travels for an early nonconference game, and a somewhat less formidable southern team makes the long trip up to Ohio Stadium.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: It's odd when one of the premier games of the weekend is a total mystery.  The Backyard Brawl saw the Pitt Panthers win in a weird back and forth, no one should win kind of game (but that's what the Brawl is).  Tennessee has been an analytic darling this year, but the SEC schedule will be rough.  Pitt....well, they're Pitt.  Even though it's in Pittsburgh, I think the Panthers will ride the high a little too much while the Vols play the SEC card and get it done on the road.  UT: 38--Pitt: 24 
Hoying: Believe it or not, kids, there was a time in somewhat recent when Tennessee...well, didn't exactly run the SEC, but sat comfortably in the heir apparent position behind Spurrier's Gators. But despite being a perennial choice for a dark horse SEC challenger and signing multiple top ten classes this decade, the Vols haven't really made any noise since their early 2000s heyday. Even last year, Tennessee faceplanted before SEC season even started, kicking off their first of six losses by losing to Pitt. This year, the Panthers don't have Kenny Pickett anymore, but they aren't lacking for experience at QB after snagging USC transfer Kedon Slovis. On the other hand, it's Tennessee that's supposed to have the killer offense this year with Joe Milton Hendon Hooker returning to head up a formidable passing attack. I don't really trust either of those teams, but I probably trust Pitt less; they needed a miracle pick six to put West Virginia away last week and the "Neers have been mediocre almost as long as Tennessee has. SEC continues their early season dominance (just don't cast your eyes towards Louisiana). UT: 31--Pitt: 24
Schweinfurth: Watching the Backyard Brawl last week left me with a lot of questions about Pitt. Sure they can put up points, but can they really stop anyone? The Vols are a middle of the road SEC team and I still have questions if they are for real (Ball State isn't exactly lighting it up). Both teams should put up plenty of points, but I really think UT can get one more stop than Pitt. UT: 42--Pitt: 38
Seeberg:  Ranked against ranked eh?  The Vols are essentially the SEC version of Texas:  A formerly powerful program that commands a ton of attention in a football-crazed state that has made wildly inaccurate claims about being relevant and/or back for quite some time whose name starts with "Te".  To their credit, however, Hendon Hooker appeared to be the real deal in their warmup dusting of Ball State, with 2 TDs through the air and 2 more on the ground.  A dual-threat QB may be hard for Pitt to plan for, but they are already battle-tested, winning the backyard brawl in entertaining and dramatic fashion.  Pitt is closer to being "back" than my master's degree alma mater I'm afraid.  UT: 27-- Pitt: 31

 

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Draper: In the last 35 years, the Wildcats have bested the Gators two times.  One of those was last season when Mark Stoops brought Kentucky out of the 'just a basketball school' realm (Saint Peters helped as well).  While it seems every team in the SEC East has aspirations of being number 2 to Georgia, this is new ground for Kentucky.  The perennial doormat saunters into the Swamp with a little swag.  This, is likely a mistake.  The Utes found last week that the Swamp is no joke, and Anthony Richardson cast his hat into the ring for the Heisman talk.  The Gators aren't nearly to the standard of UGA, but they seem to be making a little push to relevance.  I think UK will have to wait to take down the Gators in the Swamp.  UK: 17--UF: 30

Hoying: It's the old Charlie-Brown-and-Lucy game from the SEC, only Charlie has finally managed to connect on a couple of kicks in the last few years. And though the SEC East crown seems like a foregone conclusion for Georgia (especially after last week), the trendy pick to make a little noise in the East coming into this season was not the Gators, but the Wildcats. Amazing the momentum a stupid bowl win over Iowa can provide a program. Last week, Florida played what should be a very good Utah team to a standstill, with a short end zone interception snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Whatever hype is surrounding UK, they're not quite on Utah's level, and Florida should be able to rack up another early quality win at home before their breather against USF next week. UK: 20--UF: 30
Schweinfurth: The Gators appear to be a much improved team this year, not top tier, but better. Kentucky has been hanging around the last few years, but are really a level below Florida. Add in the momentum from last week, Gators win. UK: 20--UF: 35
Seeberg:  Is Florida back?  I don't know, but a week one win over a top 10 opponent is certainly an excellent way to start the season regardless.  A second straight ranked squad comes to town, and this time it's a conference foe.  Mark Stoops has been phenomenal at UK, getting their football team to perennial respectability.  Anthony Richardson was an offensive revelation for a Gator squad that has relied mostly on stout defense for the last several years, and he should be enough to provide another win in the Swamp.  UK: 20--UF: 28

Baylor Bears @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: Another 'huh?' game. Both teams stomped their opponents last week, but no one really cares about the warmup games.  Baylor enters in the top 10, but that's still a vestige of last year's Big 12 Championship.  Honestly, the edge coming in is the stoic Dave Aranda.  I love the product/persona of balance he brings to the game (although I love the fiery coaches too).  I'm not sold on Baylor returning to form this year, but this will be an interesting test against the soon conference foe.  I'm getting some vibes that BYU is going to make this interesting.  I think they mess around and win at home as the Bears take a step back from last year's campaign.  BU: 30--BYU: 35

Hoying: Wow, the Big 12 is moving really quickly in the wake of the B1G and SEC's realignment...wait, this is just a scheduling coincidence? Get used to seeing this game on a regular basis from 2023 forward as the Baptists and Mormons battle for religious supremacy in America's most forgettable (but somehow still stronger than the Pac-12) "Power 5" conference. You may remember Baylor winning the Big 12 last year by literal inches and derailing the Lane Train in the Sugar Bowl. Dave Aranda has engineered a nice turnaround from the aftermath of the disastrous finish to the Art Briles era, and he's probably too good to stick around Baylor for too much longer, but they'll at least get to enjoy him for this huge road game against a ranked opponent. The problem for BYU is that their two top receivers are both lost to injury, and they don't quite have the depth of certain scarlet and gray teams that can plug and play and win Rose Bowls and other Top-5 battles. Baylor won comfortably last year, and I expect a repeat. BU: 27--BYU: 20
Schweinfurth: I just can't buy on BYU. They have been a mostly irrelevant team while Baylor has been riding the "Texas is down" wave in recruiting. Baylor should have the better players, but at BYU should keep it close. BU: 28--BYU: 24
Seeberg:  For all you night owls we've got a ranked matchup in the late window!  Both squads looked good in their openers against markedly inferior opponents.  Baylor was the class of the Big XII last year and shows few signs of slowing down.  The Mormon home crowd may have been enough to shift this the other way, but news has come out that the Cougars are without their 2 best wideouts.  We saw what happened to the vaunted Ohio State offense with two WRs gone, and it's likely a little too much for the blue and white to overcome.  Bears pull away late. BU: 31--BYU: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Is Texas back? The short answer: No.  The long answer: Nooooooooooooooo.  Standout Buckeye transfer Quinn Ewers had a nice debut after his 2 snaps last year, but he's still a work in progress.  Bama was the standard last week as always.  Heisman winner Bryce Young was fantastic and the defense pitched a shutout.  Could Darrell K. Royal be the deciding factor.....Nooooooooooooo.  I expect a solid workmanlike dismantling by the Tide while Texas continues the rebuild.  Note: if Bama wins, Nick Saban will remain undefeated in true non-conference road games in his 15 years at Alabama.  A stunning 3-0! Bama: 42--UT: 13

Hoying: Part of me gets frustrated that our beloved Buckeyes have only taken home one national title in the last 20 years despite repeatedly pulling in #2 rated classes, even in back-to-back cycles. But nothing compares to the talent they waste down in Austin, where multiple top ten classes are rendered into a slurry of mediocrity. No Big 12 titles since Colt McCoy beat Nebraska by one point in one second. No major bowl wins except the "we're baaaack" premature coronation in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. Heck, they only have 4 winning seasons in the last 8. At least they'll always have that overtime win against 4-8 Notre Dame in 2016. Yes, Quinn Ewers is supposed to be the greatest QB recruit ever (sigh). Yes, the Longhorns still have arguably the nation's premier running back in Bijan Robinson . But, do we have any reason to believe the defense is supposed to be better than last year's wet paper sacks? Are they going to be ready for Heisman winner Bryce Young and the rest of the Crimson Inevitability? The Tide may get shocked by a couple of early scores but I wouldn't count on the Longhorn D to hold out for any considerable period of time. Bama: 38--UT: 20

Schweinfurth: Someone reminded Saban that the Horns Down hand gesture is a 15 yard penalty. Some poor DB or Wide Out flashing that sign would most likely be Texas' best offensive play all day. Texas is going to find out how far they have left to go in order to be back. This smells like a multiple INT game for Ewers. In a preview of years to come, Bama. Big. Bama: 45--UT: 9

Seeberg:  Two marquee high-profile programs clash- and 'Bama is even on the road and not at a neutral site for once!  Unfortunately the next iteration of Manning hasn't yet arrived in Austin, though it might not matter either way.  The 'Bama juggernaut keeps rolling along.  Bama, UGA, and tOSU have just recruited at another level the last 4-5 years and it shows when you stack recruiting classes like that.  The Longhorns may get there, but not yet.  I hope Ohio State defector Quinn Ewers enjoys his afternoon and year before he plays second fiddle again.  Bama: 38--UT: 17

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye Nation is all worried about an 11 point win over a top 5 team.  Ryan Day played the press conference perfectly highlighting the positives, of which there were many.  The defense was fantastic last week, and I expect them to continue to improve.  While the offense wasn't a machine last week, I have little to no concern moving forward.  CJ had a really nice day (graded as one of the top performers on the week), the receivers rebounded after the loss of JSN (more mental recovery for Stroud and friends in my opinion), and Miyan Williams was fantastic.  The Red Wolves are not Notre Dame.  The athletic disparity should become relatively apparent early on in the game.  While I was a bit pessimistic on the Oline's performance last week, more level heads showed me that they held up extremely well against an NFL prospect riddled Dline.  They should be able to bully Arkansas State, but I expect the game plan will have plenty of passing work thrown in to get the receivers comfortable.  I don't expect JSN to play so 2 TDs each for Harrison and Egbuka coming up.  Butch Jones knew what he was getting into taking this game.  ArkSt: 10--OSU: 62

Hoying: I had a lot of questions going into the Notre Dame game. Now...I have more. But the most significant one is a slight tweak from my preseason "Will this defense be any good?" to "Can this defense do that week in and week out?" It's not impossible; back in 2019 Ohio State swapped out the overly complex Greg Schiano defense for the simpler and much more effective Jeff Hafley defense (oh the irony of that Rutgers-Boston College game last weekend) and the Buckeyes went from the #71 defense in the nation to #1 overnight. Interestingly, the switch this year seems to be in the opposite direction: after totally scrapping Kerry Coombs's "what the hell is everyone doing" defense after the Oregon game for Matt Barnes's "keep it simple and adjust to nothing" defense for the rest of year, which improved matters up to a hard ceiling (aaagggh, Hassan Haskins nightmares), the Buckeyes just implemented the schemes of mad scientist Jim Knowles to near perfection against the Fighting Irish. I doubt we're going to learn much more until the Badgers come to town at month's end, but it would be nice to get a feel for how the defense is going to operate going forward. It would also be nice to put up more than three scores on offense, and a terrible terrible Sun Belt defense is just what the doctor ordered. Who cares if we're starting our second string receivers? If our utility players are good enough at WR to find holes in the Marcus Freeman-Al Golden Irish defense, our receiver corps should be more than up to the task of eviscerating the worst the Sun Belt and the MAC has to offer. To say nothing of Chop and Pop (h/t Tony Gerdeman) in the backfield bullying defenders and threatening to break free on every run. Whatever Justin Frye did to get the run game back on track last week, I'd love to see more of it, especially against the physical Big Ten slate Ohio State has drawn this season. As for this game, I don't see a way it stays close. Notre Dame was able to pressure Stroud and keep everything in front of their safeties (except for double safety blitzes on 3rd and 11, rofl), but Arkansas State following that game plan is a recipe for Ohio State's possession receivers to have a field day and the running backs to work their best J. K. All Day magic. I would say this will be terribly boring but I never get tired of watching the boys take their jerseys to their matching field turf color (how about that sharp-looking new field, too?). ArkSt: 10--OSU: 59

Schweinfurth: Need some motivation this week? How about the Bucks dropping to #3 after beating a top 5 team by two scores. That should help this team keep focus a bit. This game is all about learning and experience this week. The Bucks can win without JSN and Julian Flemming and I would be surprised if they do more than warm up. Let Stroud get in a rhythm with the young wide outs and pound Henderson and Williams. On defense, more of that please. It appeared as if the Bullets were back. All reaction, no overthinking. Again, get the offence in synch, get the young guys experience, and move on to next week with minimal injuries. ArkSt. 13--OSU: 56

Seeberg:  Last week was a convincing win, though not in the way most predicted.  Less than 75 yards for ND the entire second half?  Sign me up.  Offense makes headlines, but defense travels and this was an excellent first step both for this season, and future seasons as just about every big recruit still on the board saw a revitalized unit.  For this Saturday, the only thing I know for certain about this game- other than it will be a blowout- is that JSN better not play.  I'm relieved the injury is reportedly minor, but if we can beat Notre Dame without him, he's superfluous against the Red Wolves.  Julian Fleming is also still banged up as he was a game-time decision last week, but he could use the reps with CJ.  Regardless, I'd like to see the D continue to fly around and perhaps create a couple TOs this week, and the offense to find its 2021 rhythm.  They've got 2 weeks to do so before the Badgers come calling.  Ark: 10--OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: South Carolina over Arkansas
Hoying: Stanford over USC
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Wisconsin
Seeberg:  Vandy over Wake

Week 1: Silver & Gold

Smiles up, Buckeye Nation. We have a brand new defense, a brand new offensive line coach, the return of the best QB in America (for both of the first two games, even!) and a shiny golden opponent to tune up against. It's time for a traitor to be rewarded as a traitor deserves, and don't be surprised if Marcus Freeman makes the wrong decision a few more times than twice on Saturday afternoon.

Oregon Ducks vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: A big road opener for the Ducks for the second year.  Once again playing the big underdog role, the question is whether the Ducks can pull it off again.  Last year, was a perfect storm facing a new QB and a putrid defense (sorry, Bucks) and just enough to get it done in a tough environment.  If we turn back the clock, you'll find that CJ was pretty good (not great, but the defense couldn't do anything).  I don't think the Dawgs will have that problem.  Yeah, the offense won't be NEARLY as explosive, but that defense (although fairly green) will be just fine.  Last year was the one for the Ducks.  After losing Cristobal, I don't think we'll see a resurgence.  Yes, the Oregon coach came from UGA, but the athletes simply don't match.  The fact that the UGA QB is subpar is less important when you have the defense to carry you.  I just can't see the upset here.  UO: 10--UGA: 20
Hoying: Yeah, on paper this doesn't look particularly competitive, but the presumptive underdog in this matchup was responsible for one of the most baffling-in-hindsight upsets of the 2021 season (other than Bowling Green over Minnesota, maybe). I doubt that game is far from your memory. What you might not remember was that their national championship defending opponent came out in week 1 last year and failed to make any kind of dent in the weakest Clemson team in the Playoff era, needing a pick 6 to get past the otherwise dreadful 3-3 deadlock. It's not like the Georgia offense suddenly woke up at any point last year; they had by far the worst offense of any Playoff champion but an old-school SEC classic defense was enough to pull them just far enough ahead of the Tuscaloosa Death Star for the title. But they aren't playing Alabama now; they're playing a normal team. How did Georgia do against the last normal team they played? Well, I'm sure I don't need to remind you about the other team that smacked around the scarlet and gray last year, and what did they and their Heisman runner-up DE do when they arrived in the Playoff? They got lit up for 34 points and failed to do much of anything in return. As long as Georgia doesn't have a nasty case of "2015 Ohio State" I don't see any way this game stays close; Oregon hasn't found any answers in the offseason and their hard ceiling of "just barely Playoff caliber with favorable schedule" hasn't budged. Ore: 9--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: This has the feel of the annual neutral field sacrifice to the SEC. The coaching turnover at Oregon is a little concerning and the Ducks are not going to catch Georgia off guard. Georgia isn't going to let the Ducks run the same play over and over for chunk yardage either. The Dawgs start their national championship defense off with a win. Ore: 10--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  First off, COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!!  Secondly, much credit to these programs for their willingness to play marquee early season games.  Both teams won their respective big openers to springboard into early CFP contention.  Clearly worked out well for the Dawgs.  The Ducks just manhandled our beloved Buckeyes last year but UGA is a whole 'nother level of physical.  With even a reasonably competent offense to compliment their likely-reloaded D, Georgia should start their title defense with another marquee W.  Ore: 13--UGA: 24

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm intrigued with this matchup.  Last year was the year of the Bearcat (before getting whipped in the CFP), but Fickell has built a strong program across the board.  Losses of Ridder and Garner loom large even though it's more of a 'next man up' situation than ever before.  The Hogs have some crazy freaks on both sides, but the running game will take center stage. The question is how Arkansas handles success/expectations of success.  Cincy has lived with it and thrived, but that was against a (mostly) group of 5 schedule.  Arkansas is still a mid-tier Power 5, but they have some horses.  These teams would be really interesting in a neutral site game, but I'll lean on the Hogs in Fayetteville.  UC: 20--Ark: 24
Hoying: Congratulations, Cincinnati. You proved that beating one quality team and eleven limp fish is sufficient to secure a Playoff spot. And wouldn't you know it, fresh off of your Playoff chokehold at the hands of Alabama, opportunity repeats itself in 2022. The schedule is total poo but look at that shining kernel of corn leading things off: an SEC team! And not just an SEC team, but a trendy pick as a dark horse to make some noise in college football's death division, the SEC West. Should we expect the Bearcats to bring home the bacon and settle in for three months of cruise control? Not exactly. Cincy followed up their greatest season ever by sending a school record nine players to the draft, including steady hand QB Desmond Ridder and All-American DBs Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant. Arkansas will be...OK...but that should be enough to handle a Bearcat squad with at least one star misaligned. Better luck next year in the Big 12 (or just win out and go to the Cotton Bowl). UC: 20--Ark: 30
Schweinfurth: What a difference a year makes here. I'm taking Cincinnati if this game was played last year. No Desmond Ridder and no Sauce Gardner and it feels like the Bearcats are in rebuild mode. Fickel won't let his time quit, so the score should be close, but the talent gap should win out in the end. UC: 21--Ark: 24
Seeberg:  Wait, this is a ranked matchup?  Welcome to college football in 2022.  UC went where no non-power-5-but-soon-to-be-power-5 squad has gone before, making the playoff as Alabama's semifinal appetizer.  The Bearcats recruited well, developed even better, and had a whopping NINE players drafted in April, more than every program except LSU and UGA (yes, even the Buckeyes amazingly enough).  That amalgamation of talent just isn't sustainable there just yet, and the 'Hogs are on the upswing with Sam Pittman coaching in year two.  It should be competitive, but Fickell and Co. aren't destined for another dream season just yet.  UC: 17--Ark: 27

 

Utah Utes @ Florida Gators

Draper: Another really interesting matchup to open the year as the SEC leaves the friendly home confines for a....wait....they're at home AGAIN? Checks out.  The Utes are the talk of the Pac12 this year (along with the hot Trojans).  While they're not sexy, they are a very good, well-coached team.  While almost stealing a Rose Bowl (against the OSU 2nd string), you can see the talent on the team (unless the RB's play CB again).  The Gators are...the Gators.  New coach Billy Napier is bringing some hope of rebirth to Gainsville, but there's a bit of a climb after last years campaign.  While UF can still recruit great talent, we haven't heard a ton of it in the last few years.  Utah might not have the 'studs' either, but they're more experienced with high quality.  The Swamp is the real question here.  It truly is one of, if not the, most intimidating environment in CFB when rocking.  Will Gator Nation come out and will it be enough? I think so and I think not, respectively.  If they can weather the early crowd, the Utes sneak out with a win.  UU: 24--UF: 20
Hoying: Boy, did any team fall off harder in the second half of 2021 than the Florida Gators? Going from playing Alabama to a standstill in the Swamp to losing five of their last seven, including getting run out of the building against post-Spurrier South Carolina of all teams, was enough to finally run Dan Mullen out of Gainesville. Enter Billy Napier, and he has his work cut out for him. 2021 starting QB Emory Jones decided to keep the heat but lose the humidity and bolt for Arizona State, leaving UF to break in a new starting QB as well. Of course, it wasn't the QB that gave up 459 yards to South Carolina or 454 yards to LSU, but slowing the flow of turnovers would be a big part of a new recipe for success. As for Utah, you saw what they did to Oregon (twice) last year and what they did to the Buckeyes for about two and a half quarters. Yes, they also gave up a million points in the Rose Bowl but that's what happens when you're down three cornerbacks against the best passing attack in the nation and have to start Micah "I play running back!" Bernard instead. The Utes still have their Rising star at QB to supplement a nasty rushing attack (hi again, Micah) which should give the Gators all they can handle. But...SEC talent...a new coach looking for something to prove, and in the Swamp of all places, where even the 2021 Tide barely escaped with their skins. I can't shake the feeling the Gators pull this one off. The SEC lands a one-two punch against the Pac-12 to kick off 2022 (after the Big Ten did the same in the offseason). UU: 24--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun one to watch. Utah should actually have the full complement on defense, as opposed to what they rolled out in the Rose Bowl. They are just scrappy. I just haven't been sold on Florida for a few years. It's not for lack of talent. Something with the coaching has just seemed off. The Utes are a strong team and should keep it close. Close enough to win...? UU: 28--UF: 24
Seeberg:  Like many Buckeye fans I came away impressed with the Utes in the Rose Bowl shootout last year.  The Gators haven't impressed much since Urban left  I'm pretty sure the Swamp is a good enough environment to keep the home team in it, but too much turnover- and too many turnovers- will likely be their undoing against a sound and more disciplined squad.  Utes get what at least feels like a marquee win on their path to be the "we really have to invite a fourth?" team to the CFP this year (can't wait to see the garbage that gets in when we go to 12!).  UU: 31--UF: 20

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Draper: It's finally here.  I'm so excited to see Jim Tressel as the guest picker on Gameday.  He's in town, former coach at OSU, coached the ND coach in college. It just works out perfectly....what?....WHO THE HELL IS JACK HARLOW? I wish I could find the brilliant mind that came up with that choice.  Regardless, the Buckeyes enter the year as many people's pick for the National Champion so expectations abound.  The top 3 (Bama, UGA, and OSU) rightfully dominate the airwaves, and I agree those 3 teams have separated from the pack.  Notre Dame may be in that 2nd tier (or 3rd if you put Bama alone in the 1st), but the chasm between those 3 and the world is enormous.  CJ Stroud is rightfully the Heisman frontrunner and he needs to start the campaign now.  I would argue that OSU has the best QB, WR room, and possibly O-line in the country while touting a very strong running attack to boot.  ND has a nice defense, but I'll be stunned if they stymie the Bucks.  The questions are all over the defense.  Jim Knowles isn't going to snap his fingers and turn the 2021 Silver Bullets into the 85 Bears overnight (despite what the message board crazies say), but I do believe that we will see massive improvements from last year.  If the Buckeye defense can be even at a top 30-40 level, I think this offense is good enough to outscore anyone.  So long as the moment isn't too big for these players (and why should it be when this is the squad that played in the Rose Bowl), I expect a comfortable win.  There will be moments as every week 1 game entails, but if Day and Co. can keep Coleridge Bernard focused and the defense improving, Buckeye Nation will have a big win to remember.  Wishing good luck to Marcus Freeman the rest of the way, but this Saturday, you're the enemy.  ND: 20 -- OSU: 45
Hoying: I hate scheduling this game in week 1. The stakes are far too high to open with anything but a nice cupcake like Ohio or Cincinnati, and ambitious scheduling, while nice for the TV ratings, can lead to nasty upsets while the Buckeyes are still getting unfamiliar parts settled into place. Think Virginia Tech in 2014, or USC in 2009, or even Oregon last year. Ohio State was definitely better than any of those teams, but the Buckeyes had some early-season vulnerabilities their opponents were able to exploit (inexperienced QB, whatever the hell 2009's play calling was). Last year, we were totally in the dark as to how Coombs's defense would pan out. Sure, the 2020 defense skidded on its face to the finish line, but was that incompetence from the coordinator or the understandable fruits of COVID cancellations and disqualifications? We started an all-new back seven against Minnesota to tune up for Oregon and they were clearly not ready for noontime the following week. The offense played well enough to win except for a couple of crucial fourth down miscues and an inopportune turnover late. Remember when people wondered if CJ Stroud even belonged on the depth chart, after he put up 484 yards against the Ducks on an injured shoulder? Remember when the coaches still thought starting Master Teague over TreVeyon Henderson (or even Miyan Williams) was our path to rushing success? And now this year's team needs to be ready to perform without a warmup. Even the 2009, 2014, and 2021 teams got relatively light aperitifs before their faceplants. But this year, the cleat is on the other foot. At the risk of contradicting everything I just said, I love opening against Notre Dame this year. Suddenly, it's Ohio State with all the pieces already in place on offense, and a decent amount of experience (for better or worse) on the defensive side, including shiny new safety Tanner McCallister familiar with the new (and hopefully improved) scheme and fresh off a Fiesta Bowl win against...Notre Dame! The Irish are breaking in a new QB, a new RB, and a brand new head coach, and are missing their top WR, all on the road at night at one of the toughest stadiums in the world, which will be r o c k i n g on Saturday. What should we expect to see? Well, unless Aidan Hutchinson magically appears on the Irish D-line, I don't think anyone is going to be able to slow down the Ohio State attack, at least between the 20's. God-willing, Big Ten Legend Justin Frye has been able to do something about our red zone running game, but we also saw a little shake and bake from Stroud toward the end of last season (that touchdown against TTUN that got called back was lovely) that may open up some additional scoring opportunities this year. Expect to pull your hair out a few (or more) times watching Notre Dame break open huge plays on busted assignments, but much like Michigan State and Purdue last year I don't expect them to keep pace with the Buckeyes early. Then the pressure, the lights, and Stadium O-H-I-O should do the rest. Buckeyes win convincingly and buy themselves some time to get the defense fully ironed into place. OSU: 48--ND: 31

Schweinfurth: Nothing like a big game on campus. I can't remember a build up to an opener like this since, maybe, Washington in 2003. The Buckeye offense is just loaded. CJ Stroud is healthy entering this year (unlike the shoulder fatigue he had last year) and from all accounts has only improved. TreVeyon Henderson is a year more mature and got a full year in the Marrotti Dojo. And then the receiving corps is just *chef's kiss* the cherry on top. My eyes will be on the defense though. What did Jim Knowles do to get this unit playing with confidence and speed? Watch out if this unit is even a middle of the pack unit this year. As for the game. Ohio State just has so much more talent than Notre Dame. I love Marcus Freeman. He's always been my guy. He just doesn't have the talent to match up, yet. This feels closer than the 17.5 spread that's being offered up right now. Time to get that early season night game monkey off the back. OSU: 35--ND: 21 
Seeberg:  The storylines in this one are just endless. Top 5 opening week matchup, historically great programs, head coach coming into his former stadium, new DC in Columbus, Heisman favorite QB, just pick one.  For me, this one is strength on strength (OSU O, ND D) and weakness on assumed weakness (ND O, OSU D).  As mediocre as Ohio State's defense was last year, the new scheme fits our personnel seamlessly.  Losing Proctor on the back end last year hurt, as he could mask deficiencies well.  Now, the 4-2-5 base defense they will be in takes a linebacker off the field (a position of weakness for several years now), and adds another DB (McAllister, Proctor and Hickman might be the best 3-safety combination in the country).  With Burke shutting down one side of the field every week, I genuinely expect the D to be top 20.  Any defense that good when coupled with the absurd talent on offense will be a combination that should produce a lot of Ws.  Oddly, the past 15 years or so the Buckeyes have struggled at home in these big early-season games, but nearly all of those losses have something in common:  Breaking in a new starting QB (Troy against Texas, Barrett against VT, Stroud against Oregon).  Clearly not the case this year.  There's also a rumor the Buckeyes will be in scarlet-and-gray sleeves again for this one (PLEASE) to pay homage to the '02 title team.  Let's make the scoreline pay homage to the '95 squad as Eddie, Hoying, Glenn, er, I mean Henderson, Stroud and JSN run away from the Irish.  OSU: 45--ND: 26

Upset Special
Draper: ECU over NC State
Hoying: Western Michigan over Michigan State
Schweinfurth: South Dakota State over Iowa
Seeberg:  North Dakota over Nebraska