Week 9: Pajama Jammy Jam

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 26-7 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 25-8 (4-4 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 25-8 (3-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-9 (4-4 upset)

November has (nearly) arrived, and it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. All eyes are on the Big Ten East, where the Fantastic Four start their round robin. Georgia faces their last serious SEC competition (read about that massacre somewhere else) while a couple of SEC West teams fight to stay relevant in the case that Alabama stumbles again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Who is the bigger mirage of 2021? Honestly, I don't know.  Both teams from that state up north are flying in undefeated with monstrous expectations, but I just don't buy it.  The final scores have looked good for most of UM's games due to late TDs skewing the result, MSU hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse, and both needed a prayer to beat Nebraska (who is honestly better than their record).  MSU is leaning on their stud RB Kenneth Walker, but I think the Wolverine tandem is a touch better.  Not to mention Aidan Hutchinson wreaking havoc from the DE spot.  McNamara is a problem for the maize and blue (despite what the homers tell you), but I think the other pieces are good enough to get Harbaugh's first top 10 road win at UM.  UM: 24--MSU: 21
Hoying: Welcome to the biggest game up north since, well, since I've been born (maybe 1999 was bigger, but that was earlier in the season). It's awfully late in the season for these two to be undefeated, but that might be because they ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwwwl. When your best wins are over Wisconsin for the visitors, and, well, Michigan State has no good wins, it's going to be tough to take you seriously until you make your mark in a prove-it game like this one. That being said, Michigan has generally been making quick work of its opponents, riding the most dominant running attack I've seen from the Wolverines since Mike Hart's mouth. Hey, maybe he has a role in the turnaround of the Wolverines' ground game this year behind the two-headed monster of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. This weekend should be a good test; the Spartans aren't impossible to solve but they are a good clip better than Rutgers on run D, who gave UM fits a few weeks ago. Michigan is no slouch on defense either, and they'll need to be at their best bottling up the nation's leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III, and Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor will keep UM honest deep as well. I'm inclined go roll with the home team as their offense is far more balanced than Michigan's, but I think the Michigan defense will do just enough to...no, I can't do it. You can't be elite and one-dimensional, and Michigan's pass game is not good enough to beat the likes of the best of the BEast (aka, the tri-State area). Little Brother strikes again. UM: 24--MSU: 27

Schweinfurth: I certainly did not have Michigan and Michigan State ranked in the top ten this year. Full stop. In reality, they are ranked this high because of poll mentality and they haven't lost yet. Good job there. I'm really not sure what to make of these teams. Harbaugh has returned to his Stanford Steamroller roots, and it has served him well so far. Mel Tucker has rebuilt Sparty surprisingly quick (gotta love the transfer portal) and they seem a year ahead of schedule. I truly see this as a rock fight. These teams are just going to bludgeon each other running the ball. QB play will be the difference and Sparty has the better weapons outside and Michigan refused to throw the ball on first and second downs. It will be a good game, but I hope this game doesn't set football offenses back 20 years. UM: 14--MSU: 17

Seeberg:   Truly scrounging for the best win for either of these teams this year.  MSU's 3-TD win at 3-4 Miami?  UM winning at Wiscy by the same margin?  Toss-up, but honestly given the schedules it shouldn't be much of a surprise that both of these squads arrive undefeated.  Maybe somewhat with a new coach at the helm for Sparty, who gets this year's edition of big bro/little bro at home.  Honestly I think my colleague said it best.  Top 10 teams have to be multi-faceted and I don't trust UM to throw the ball well against a competent defense, regardless of who's under center.  Just as long as one of these teams is undefeated when we play them we will avoid the over-cannibalization of the east right?  UM: 20--MSU: 26

Mississippi Rebels @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: I honestly forgot Auburn still fielded a team.  Lane Train is good for crapping the bed here and there so the question is 'can they avoid it in Jordan-Hare? Is Auburn any good? I don't think so.  Matt Corral may still be the number one QB in the NFL mocks at this point, and I think that will be enough.  Auburn needs a year to recoup.  Miss: 38 -- Aub: 24
Hoying: Oh, hi there, Ole Miss. Welcome to the top 10, a height you hadn't even reached when Alabama launched you into the sun. And all it's taken is a couple of heartstopping victories against Arkansas and Tennessee and a blowout of the SEC's resident dead man walking. Matt Corral's been great (not as great as CJ Stroud, but still pretty good) but the defense just isn't there yet. Auburn, meanwhile, was actually able to make a dent in the nigh-impenetrable Georgia D so far this season (stay tuned to see if the Gators can do a dang thing against them). You never know if you're going to get good BoNix or bad BoNix, but the porous Ole Miss D should put him on the path to the smiling side of the scoreboard in this one. Miss: 34--Aub: 35
Schweinfurth: Ole' Miss has an explosive offense. Auburn has BoNix. Advantage: Ole' Miss. Back to the others receiving votes category Auburn! Miss: 42--Aub: 35

Seeberg:   Oh yeah, Auburn's still ranked.  Yay?  Even with this game at home it's hard to imagine the team that couldn't beat PSU beating a top 10 opponent.  Transitive property CLEARLY states Illinois>Auburn.  And if Illinois>Auburn, then Ole Miss should be able to outscore a Bo Nix led offense.  Miss: 37--Aub: 31

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Michigan THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: I'm calling my shot here (like my co-bloggers it would seem)...I think this is going to be ugly.  The Lions are in shambles after that crapfest vs. Illinois last week, and the Buckeyes appear to be morphing into their final form.  CJ Stroud has been phenomenal, but I don't think this is his week.  He'll be more than fine, but the story on Sunday will be Treyveon Henderson and the ground attack.  If Illinois is running for 350+, I'd be petrified what the Buckeye backs and O-line are going to do.  Were the Lions looking ahead? Almost assuredly.  However, Penn State (like most of the other top ranked B1G teams) are mirages on the year.  The Buckeye offense will do work, but the question is the defense.  Sean Clifford is trash....BUT he pulls games out of his butt every once in awhile.  If he's still hurt, game over man, but if not, the D-line MUST get pressure.  Also, Denzel Burke....please don't talk trash to Dotson.  Dotson is an exceptional receiver that can help the Lions pull out the return of the chuck it deep on exery play (500!) offense which would be terrible if we don't get home.  That being said, I think the D will be fine and the O won't let up.  PSU: 20--OSU: 48
Hoying: It's hard to believe that just 3 short weeks ago, the college football world stood still for a top five showdown between Iowa and Penn State. And neither team has won a game since (and not for lack of lackluster opponents). Meanwhile the Buckeyes' stock just keeps rising. The offense may be the best in program history, and the defense is...fine. Which is honestly good enough for anything left on Ohio State's schedule, let alone a team that can't score on six straight plays from the three yard line. James Franklin says Sean Clifford will be back to 100% this week. Whoopty doo. Taulia Tagovailoa was at 100% when the Buckeyes played Maryland and that did him a fat lot of good against the Silver Bullets. The real question is whether Franklin himself will be at 100% this week (100% for him at least) or whether he'll be dreaming about joining his old Rose Bowl foe, USC. I don't think Penn State is good enough to hang with the Buckeyes on a good day, and this weekend's pajama party is not shaping up to be particularly kind to the Lions. Anyone remember the Penn State back in 2013, when the Buckeyes had an offense about this good? Something like that, only with PSU WR Jahan Dotson making a play or two. On to Nebraska. PSU: 17--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: The more I watch James Franklin coach, the less impressed I am. The dude can recruit. I will admit that much, but the guy is an awful in game coach (see 9OTs of futility against an over matched opponent). It is scary to think what TreVon Henderson and the Buckeye Bulldozers are going to do to that Nittany Lion front 7. Penn State probably has the best secondary on the Buckeye schedule right now, but how do you stop Olave, Wilson, Smith-Njigba, Ruckertt, and then Henderson out of the backfield? I don't expect a lot of the explosive pass plays we have witnessed over the last three week, but this offense is going to move the ball. On defense, it seems that the Bullets are playing much better, and this is another step up. I'm not concerned about Noah Cain or anyone else running the ball here. Contain Jahan Dotson and it's all good. The only way this is close is if the defense gives up a ton of chunk plays to Dotson (see last year). PSU: 20--OSU: 42

Seeberg:   Well, the luster has certainly worn off of this game quickly.  These two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions.  The Buckeye offense is as prolific as ever, leading the nation in total offense and PPG.  Penn State set a new record for futility, needing 9 OTs to lose to woeful Illinois.  Hopefully, Day watched the Illini rushing offense absolutely torch the Nittany Cubs.  They KNEW what was coming and couldn't stop it, to the tune of 350+ rushing yards.  Henderson, Henderson, Williams, Henderson, Williams, play-action pass.  That recipe should work more than enough to distance themselves in the second half.  Look for me in D-deck under the press box, waving goodbye to James Franklin as he bolts not-so-happy valley for greener pastures.  PSU: 17--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Florida over Georgia (gross)
Hoying: Duke over Wake Forest
Schweinfurth: UNC over ND
Seeberg:  Miami over Pitt

Week 8: The Bottom of the Barrel

Standings:

1.) Draper 24-5 (4-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 22-7 (2-5 upset)
3.) Hoying 21-8 (4-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 21-8 (3-4 upset)

And you thought last week was bad, with only two ranked matchups nationwide. How about ZERO this week (OK, Clemson and Pitt are both ranked in the Coaches Poll)? That's not to say that this week is without intrigue, however. Two ranked teams find themselves underdogs against unranked opponents on the road, Clemson gets a chance to score their first win of import this season, and the Buckeyes face a team with more grievances against them than any not clad in maize and blue.

Oregon Ducks @ California, Los Angeles Bruins
Draper: This may be the only intriguing game this week.  UCLA is the hot upset pick, but I'm concerned it's a landmine.  Oregon has been a riddle wrapped inside an enigma this year.  Questionable against Fresno, great game against OSU, stinker vs. Stanford, flighty vs. Cal....who knows.  The Bruins have also yo-yo'd somewhat so this may be a spin the wheel game.  I'm going to take the bait.  Living on the edge with the Ducks finally crashes down and the Bucks road is clear. Chip Kelly reminds Oregon what they lost when he left.  UCLA: 30--Oregon: 27
Hoying: God willing, at season's end we'll all be celebrating another national championship for Ohio State and laughing about that dreadful September loss. "The Oregon game? Ah, what do you expect when you're starting freshmen at every position and you're running last year's defensive scheme?" Of course, that requires a few obstacles to be cleared out of the way, and given the Committee's love for head-to-head wins, the path would be clearest if Oregon would eat another loss or two. As we saw last year (and this year), Oregon's capable of losing to just about anyone, but UCLA appears to be their most fearsome remaining foe. The Bruins are a nice mirror of the Ducks themselves, good at rushing, bad at passing, OK on defense. Thing is, UCLA is a lot better at rush defense than Oregon is, so that side of the ball is going to be strength on strength unless Oregon QB Anthony Brown can break through. Problem is, his sub-50% completion performance against the Buckeyes was still his best of the season, and I don't see him outdueling DTR. The Pac-12's last 1-loss team is (more or less) officially eliminated from the Playoff chase for the 5th straight year. Chip Kelly finally gets his revenge. UO: 27--UCLA: 30
Schweinfurth: Oregon is hurting. Seriously, this is not the same team that upset Ohio State. UCLA has been all over the map, but the Ducks just seem off. I can really see UCLA pulling off the win, but Oregon sill has Kavvon. I'll take the Ducks on the road. UO: 28--UCLA: 24

Seeberg:   After a hot start beating ranked teams (although, to be fair UCLA's win over LSU doesn't really count), both squads have been trending very "meh" lately.  The Ducks collapsed at Stanford and followed that performance with a mediocre win over Cal.  The Bruins, meanwhile, have at least scored two conference road wins in a row at Arizona and UW.  In fact, the Ducks are struggling so mightily as a top 10 (!) team that they're actually 2-point underdogs in this game.  Still, Oregon has their D-line wrecker Kayvon back and healthy and UCLA is down a couple offensive linemen.  That should be just enough of a swing to allow the Ducks to sneak out of the Rose Bowl with another lackluster-looking win.  UO: 27--UCLA: 23

Clemson Tigers @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper: Sneaky, sneaky good game here.  Most of the advanced analytics have Pitt as a top 15 team (PUT PITT IN!), but can they face off against the Clemson 'juggernaut'.  Unfortunately, the Tigers look far more like kittens thus far.  Similar to Oregon, they've been playing with fire all season...but it's not due to their defense.  The Clemson offense has been shockingly inept all year while Pitt has been rolling (outside of a weird loss to WMU).  Pitt has nice wins against Tennessee and VaTech, but I'm not sure if that's quite Clemson level.  This just feels like a game Pitt craps away and Clemson flexes it's (puny) muscles.  I'm sticking with my priors.  Clem: 17--Pitt: 14
Hoying: Great teams find ways to win games. Every week I watch Clemson it looks like they're going to collapse in the fourth quarter, then somehow some catastrophe breaks their way and they escape with a victory. It helps to have the best non-Georgia defense in the country, which played the Dawgs to a draw (you may remember the winning points were a pick-6) and haven't given up more than 14 points in regulation this season. It's tragic, in a way, that it's wasted on one of the worst offenses in the country. Of course, it's not like Clemson's been playing the world-beaters of the ACC lately, either, other than NC State, who was able to pull hand the Tigers their second L of the season. And now Clemson has to visit Pitt, who, outside of a baffling loss against Western Michigan, has quietly been dominating on both sides of the ball. The Panthers even managed to escape Neyland Stadium with a win and no excess mustard. Clemson has been playing with fire far too often this year. Time to get knocked down another peg. Clem: 10--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's offense is butt. There is just no cohesion or rhythm. I really though Syracuse was going to pull of the upset last week. I don't want to say Dabo has lost the team (they are still playing hard), but I do think there is a massive let down. Pitt should be able to take advantage here. Clem: 12--Pitt: 21

Seeberg:   If there was a prop bet on this game at the start of the season that you could wager Clemson would be UNranked and Pitt would be ranked, somebody could have made a fortune because the odds would have been astronomical.  Yet somehow, in the year "after" COVID when normalcy was supposed to reign supreme, here we are.  Pitt gives up 20 a game, Clemson scores 20 a game.  So, is 20 enough to win it for the Tigers?  Not this week.  Pitt's offense is the best they've seen this season, and the ACC has tired of Clemson's bullying.  They're ripe for the taking, and the Panthers get it done.  Clem: 20--Pitt: 27

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: It would benefit the Buckeyes to see Okie State take an L.  I thought last week was the time, but Texas simply isn't back.  What to think about Iowa State? Once again...no clue.  They were the sexy pick in the Big 12 and everyone was clamoring for the B1G to call up the cyclones with an invite (which would have been very dumb), but that sheen faded quickly.  The Clones have shellacked bad teams and struggled against ranked teams all year.  While I feel the Pokes are primed to take a fall, I'm not banking on this week (sadly).  OkSt: 31--ISU: 28
Hoying: Is it finally time to stop doubting the Cowboys? The other OSU hasn't been exactly blowing out their opponents, but they've ridden a good defense (and playing Texas) to 6 straight wins to open the season. Problem is, Iowa State's defense has looked just as good, and they have a working offense to go with it. Yes, the Ballhawkeyes were able to frustrate the Cyclone attack way back in week 2, but that was largely turnover based. The Oklahoma State defense doesn't live and die by the turnover, so even if they're able to make ISU sputter a bit more often than usual, it won't be enough to make up for their own woeful offensive performance. Saturday closes with Oklahoma alone atop the Big 12 standings, once again. OkSt: 20--ISU: 24
Schweinfurth: Iowa State is due for a big win. It seems like they rise up for one of these games a year. I said it last week, I just don't trust a team that hasn't shown up on my TV. I think the Cyclones are better than their record shows. Party time in Ames. OkSt: 28--ISU: 35

Seeberg:  I actually glanced at this game as my upset pick before realizing it was one of the games on our agenda this week.  I have, officially now, given up all hope of figuring out the Big XII.  The Cowboys haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points all season (including a 7-point win over Montana State and a 5-point win over Tulsa) yet they've beaten everyone on their schedule thus far, which includes Baylor and Texas.  ISU lost at Baylor and to the Purdue-doormat Hawkeyes.  From what I can glean, the plains-states OSU squad does a lot of things fairly well but nothing really well.  I can't picture that formula holding up for another half-dozen games.  The Cyclones get a signature (?) win for their disappointing 2021 campaign.  OkSt: 24--ISU: 31 

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
Draper: My pre-season pick for 'team that everyone expects to be good to majorly underachieve' was the Indiana Hoosiers.  Why? Whenever a team comes from nowhere to have a strong season, always expect regression to the mean.  And boy did we see that.  Don't get me wrong, Indiana is still much improved from the last 20 or so years, but they're still Indiana.  The Buckeyes on the other hand seem to have found their Stroud....or...stride.  I'm actually very surprised that Stroud isn't more in the Heisman conversation (he won't win, but he should be talked about) as he is statistically the best QB in the country by many metrics.  This will be the first solid defense the Buckeyes have faced since Oregon, but I think the offense is just clicking too well.  Let's not fail to mention a defense that has resurrected from the ashes to be competent (that's good enough).  Even though the Hoosiers like to punch above their weight class in this game of late, I don't think they have the horses in Bloomington to make it happen.  Bucks get 2 TDs between Olave and Wilson, toss in 2 from Henderson, and another from another receiver (Smith-Njigba?) and you're looking at a nice night.  OSU: 41--IU: 20
Hoying: What happened to the Indiana offense? The Hoosiers have been bottled up for a total of 21 points over 3 Big Ten games. Granted, those were against Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State, but last year's team put up at least 24 in each of their first 6 games before running into the Wisconsin brick wall. That being said, this game still makes me uneasy. Remember that this was the defense that made Justin Fields look like a scrub last year, and they're off to another decent start this season. The problem is, you're going to have to defend a lot of short fields when you give the ball away like the Hoosiers do. There's still Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot to worry about, but there will be opportunities for the Silver Bullets to return an interception for a TD for the 5th game in a row. On the other side of the ball, I hated the bye week coming when it did, when the the fearsome Buckeye juggernaut seemed to be poised to peak. Hopefully they can shake off the rust quickly (those of us who lived through the Tressel era still have nightmares about those post bye week offenses). All in all, I don't think this year's Indiana team is as good as last year's, and as long as the defense can keep up the pressure, they'll force enough mistakes for a tight but ultimately comfortable win. IU: 24--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: What is the bigger mirage, this Hoosier team or last year's? I'm going with last year. While the Hoosier D is pretty good, it is prone to the big play. Oh hey, look it's the Buckeye offense who leads the world in yards per play. That looks like a good combination. The defense has had two weeks to continue improving and getting healthy on the line. Indiana's O-Line isn't great and will probably get exposed up the middle. This is another step up for the D and we will have a better idea of where they stand heading into the Nittany Kitty game. This one might get out of hand quick. IU: 14--OSU: 52

Seeberg:   Anybody have the Hoosiers at 2-4 right now?  Usually yes, this year, probably not.  Penix Jr's run of injuries appears to have caught up with him as, even when he is on the field, he doesn't seem quite as explosive as the last couple seasons.  The Hoosiers' D has improved, to their credit, stifling a good MSU squad pretty much for all four quarters.  No IU defense in history (heck, even an amalgamation of their best all-time players) can shut this Buckeye iteration down for a full game, however.  I expect a slow start after the bye week, but by mid-second quarter, Stroud and Co. should hit a stride and not look back.  I'm more intrigued by the Silver Bullets.  For basically a decade now, the defense has had the luxury of having BOTH of the following:  elite D-line play that allowed 7 to drop in coverage because pressure consistently came from just the front four, AND one shutdown corner who all but eliminated the top playmaker on the outside.  That means 6 defenders can cover just 3/4 of the field and 4 (at most) potential targets.  Good numbers.  This year, the shutdown corner is not there (although Burke is better than anticipated and may be one come 2022.  So, for my money, it's down to the front four.  If the Buckeyes can get consistent pressure without blitzing, the back 7, while not as good as it has been, can still hold up.  Here's hoping for 2-3 D-line sacks and a fun night game to prep for the big night game next week.  IU: 17--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: LSU over Ole Miss
Hoying: USC over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: SCAR over TAMU
Seeberg:  Army over Wake Forest

Week 7: Breathe

Standings:

1.) Draper 23-4 (4-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 21-6 (2-4 upset)
3.) Hoying 20-7 (3-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 20-7 (3-3 upset)

We were promised a return to normalcy. Instead, chaos has reigned over the past 6 weeks. Clemson wasted no time wandering into Playoff exile, and each of its Playoff friends from last year has already absorbed a loss. Our brave new world is led by Georgia, Iowa, and Cincinnati. That is, unless it's Kentucky's world instead. Let's take a week to take a breath while the Buckeyes rest and recover, then let's settle in for the stretch run. Welcome back to 2007.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: As we yo-yo back and forth all season, this feels like a 'Texas is BACK' week.  Last week saw an epic..EPIC collapse by the Longhorns to their hated rival, but I think they'll rebound well enough.  Okie State has quietly put together a nice season in Stillwater, but this game isn't in Stillwater.  I don't know if the Texas faithful will show out in droves or turn tail and run, but Bijan Robinson and company should be enough to get a ranked win and proclaim Texas to be back once again.  OkSt: 20--Tex: 34
Hoying: "Mom, can we have a win over Oklahoma?" "No, dear, we have win over Oklahoma at home" Yeah, this isn't what Texas fans were hoping for after opening up a 28-7 first quarter lead over the Sooners, but the Big 12's other undefeated team is coming to town and the Longhorns still have a chance to claw their way back into the Big 12's farcical championship game. Bijan Robinson has been filling the headlines so far for Texas, but it was WR Xavier Worthy who stole the show against Oklahoma, racking up 261 yards on 9 catches. That gives the Horns an opening against the Pokes, who have been as tough on defense as anyone in the Big 12 but have been vulnerable through the air. The Cowboys don't have the horses to keep up with Texas; they've been kept under 30 points in all of their games but one even though they remain undefeated. Texas clears the field for Oklahoma to win another Big 12 regular season title, at least unless the Sooners' recklessness catches up with them. OkSt: 20--Tex: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State is ranked in the top 15 and yet I don't recall ever seeing a game on TV. How is this possible. Maybe because this year has just been so screwy? Texas can score. We all saw that last week when they pooped their pants in public lost to Oklahoma. The Cowboys don't have the same talent as Oklahoma, so I expect Texas to pull away in this one. But who knows, it's Texas and they are not back yet. OkSt: 28--Tex: 38

Seeberg:  Is Texas good?  Is Oklahoma good?  Is Oklahoma State good?  Is the Big XII clamoring for a shred of 2021 respectability before falling off a cliff?  Answers:  I don't know, I don't know, I don't know, and absolutely.  I do know the Cowboys squeaked by Baylor (is Baylor good?  Answer:  I don't know).  And Texas had a national TV meltdown akin to, well Mike Gundy WHO IS FORTY, in their Red River Rivalry wreck loss to OU.  Despite that debacle, I still think the Longhorns are the better team, not that that matters all that often.  Longhorns bounce back (but aren't back, if that makes sense).  OkSt: 27--UT: 38 

Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: No one wants to say it, but this game may be for the SEC East division.  Kentucky has already defeated the Gators (who called that upset?) and while Georgia has been chugging along, the win over Clemson has been wholly devalued...but....none of this matters.  Georgia is a monster on defense and should take care of the plucky Wildcats.  I do expect a surprising one-two punch from the Cats early, but Georgia's talent on the D-line is scary good.  I think the way to beat them is to outlast them via turnovers and shutting down their so-so offense.  Kentucky isn't that team.  Oh, they're between the hedges too? Uh-oh.  UK: 10-UGA: 27
Hoying:  Alabama losing to an unranked team is obviously not a result anyone expected. But that game didn't really change anything in the SEC West; the Tide are still win and in. You want the chaos season to really take off in earnest? A Kentucky win would essentially lock up the Wildcats' first East title...ever. Can it be done? The Cats are getting it done on the ground behind a strong season by RB Christ Rodriguez, Jr., and the defense is doing an adequate job as well. But Kentucky is one of the worst in the nation in turnover margin, net -8 for the year through 6 games. That's bad news when you're facing the top defense in the nation. Yeah, Stetson Bennett may give the ball back to Kentucky a couple times as he continues to fill in for J.T. Daniels, but it's not like UK's going to be able to do anything with the ball once they have it. Georgia gave up their first TD outside of garbage time (debatably) last week, once they already had a 3-touchdown second half lead over Auburn. It's still Georgia's year. For now. UK: 6--UGA: 30
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is a great story this year. Mark Stoops has turned the Wildcats around and seems to have a good program. Enter the Dogs from Georgia. That defense is by far the best in the country so far this season. There are some questions about the Georgia offense, but they won't matter here. Georgia is should win easily. UK: 9--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  Remarkably, the Wildcats didn't fall flat on their face after their huge win over the Gators, following it with a comfortable win over LSU.  The Bulldogs are a completely different animal, however.  I don't expect lightning to strike twice in two weeks against the SEC juggernauts.  Mark Stoops seems to have UK to at least perennial respectability, but giant killers?  Not just yet.  UK: 10--UGA: 28

Upset Special
Draper: TCU over Oklahoma
Hoying: Purdue over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Mizzou over TAMU
Seeberg:  Tennessee over Ole Miss

Polls Are Stupid

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has come under a lot of fire in the past few years, whether for favoring the same few teams year in and year out, or undervaluing Group of 5 teams, or whatever your personal grievance is (I'm still not over #5 Georgia, #6 Ohio State from 2018), but all in all I think they've done a pretty good job. As when evaluating all things, we should consider the Playoff in the context of what it replaced, which is in this case the BCS.

The BCS was endlessly tinkered with over its 16-year lifespan, with the final form being essentially a mix of the leading human polls with a little computer spice sprinkled in. One of these human polls was the Harris Poll, which wasn't a thing until the AP decided that the BCS wasn't supporting, at which point the Harris Poll was created out of whole cloth to make sure that the humans still outnumbered the computers. The other was the Coaches Poll, voted on by people who couldn't possibly have watched any games but their own. And the AP poll decided to keep giving out their own national championship award, not based on the BCS, just for kicks. Did this system give us any better results?

One need look no further than this week's disastrous AP poll to find out. Say what you want about the Playoff Committee; I don't think they've ever screwed the pooch this hard, even in an early season poll. Let's take a look at some of the highlights:

        1.  Georgia
        2.  Iowa

OK, no complaints so far. These teams clearly have the best resumes to date.

        3. Cincinnati

That's fine, they're hanging their hats on that one win over Notre Dame, but it was a convincing win over a good team, on the road.

        4.  Oklahoma

Yeah, all right, not dominating their opponents, but a win's a win, and Texas a nice feather in your Stetson.

        5.  Alabama

What? Alabama? The team that just lost to an unranked (now ranked in the 20s) team? There's a good argument that the Tide have the worst loss of any one-loss Power 5 team not named Pitt or Oregon. Yeah, the road win over Florida (by 2 points) is nice, but Florida has two losses. Someone else must have beaten the Gators as well. Like...

        11. Kentucky

Did I miss something? Are the 'Cats 6-0 or not? Did they not match one of Bama's premier wins? I get that nobody had them ranked preseason, and most people probably wouldn't pick them in a match against Georgia or Ohio State, but we're six games in and Kentucky hasn't tripped up once, facing an SEC schedule no less. Why are they ranked below Alabama, let alone outside the top 10? Let's see who the teams are in the middle.

        6.  Ohio State

I get it. It's fun to watch teams grind their opponents into dust week in and week out. The problem is, nobody cares when those opponents are Akron, Rutgers, and Maryland. The Buckeyes have had one chance to impress so far this year, and they blew it, at home to boot. The schedule gives lots of opportunities for quality wins coming up, but OSU is totally empty in that category as of now. You can't rank based on "I think they're actually good"; you need to see them execute against a team with a pulse. Let's see who's behind them...

        7.  Penn State

Really. You're going to knock Penn State behind Ohio State for losing to the #2 team, on the road, by 3 points, after seeing a big lead get carried off the field with their starting quarterback. There's a reason the Lions were #4 last week. They're walking the walk. They went into Camp Randall and came out with a W. They faced the Auburn Tigers of the mighty SEC and walked away unscathed. What about this season says "Ohio State deserves to be ranked ahead of Penn State?" At least the quality of the Iowa loss must count for something. I'd hate to see the kind of nasty losses keeping down the teams from #8 on down...

        8.  Michigan

AP poll, why are you making me do this? Ah well, here we go. Do you like watching Ohio State roll their opponents? Let me introduce the Wolverines, who disrespected Washington and Wisconsin the same way. Did you like watching Penn State dispatch the Badgers in Camp Randall? Again, Michigan did that, and in blowout fashion rather than sneaking away with a win. Did you like..watching Ohio State and Penn State...you know...lose? Because the Wolverines haven't done that yet. It's OK to admit you were wrong at the start of the season, AP poll voters. Time to give Michigan some credit.

        9.  Oregon

Quick, which team in America has the best win according to the AP poll? That would be Texas A&M, but in second place would be Oregon, who beat the #6 Ohio State Buckeyes. Maybe Oregon's win is even better since it came on the road. Anyway, Oregon has the same number of losses as the Buckeyes. And Oregon is ranked 3 spots lower. Figure that one out. Must be that Stanford loss weighing them down, keeping them below all of the other one-loss and undefeated teams...

        10.  Michigan State

Aw, come on. This, out of all the rankings so far, makes this least sense, for so, so many reasons. First of all, why is undefeated Michigan State ranked behind Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, AND Oregon? You can dog the Spartans' schedule for lack of a signature win, but it's not like Alabama or Oregon lost to world beaters either. And if you're concerned about win quality, HOW is Michigan State ranked ahead of Kentucky, which has a win over Florida? And I get that Michigan can easily be ranked ahead of Michigan State, due to win quality, but how does it make any sense to sandwich Oregon in the middle?

That's enough for now; we don't need to go into why Wake Forest is ranked behind Coastal Carolina or why Ole Miss is seven spots back of Ohio State. It's clear what's going on, and it's the same disease that has infected the traditional college football polls since their inception: they're too conservative. Instead of throwing out the rankings each week and creating a new 1-25 based on each team's season performance, the pollsters look at the previous week's poll and say things like "Oh, they lost, they should drop a few spots. Oh, they won, I guess they should go up." And so halfway through the season, we see the teams that were expected to be good, like Ohio State and Alabama, hovering around the top 5 with mediocre resumes, while undefeated teams like Michigan, Michigan State, and Kentucky have had to fight their way up from their unranked preseason positions to barely (or barely not) crack the top 10. 

And this isn't even taking into account how bonkers some of the individual ballots are. Thanks to the wisdom of crowds, the worst excesses of the AP writers are balanced out, but one need only look at the grid view of the individual ballots to see some real galaxy brain takes on the top teams in college football. By my count, that's four ballots with Alabama at #2. Browsing through the Twitter responses to these rankings (always a mistake) I saw a comment (from a lawyer no less, Kyrie eleison) that "I think Bama at 2 is clear. Bama and Georgia are the two best teams. People put too much stock into records." Because who needs wins and losses when you know who the best teams are? Might as well  select the Playoff field in August and play twelve exhibition games to get them warmed up.

Thankfully, there's a lot of season left to play, and even more thankfully, the AP poll will be irrelevant once more in just a few short weeks, as it is every season upon the release of the Playoff rankings.

Week 6: James v. Kirk

Standings:

1.) Draper 18-4 (3-2 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-6 (3-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 16-6 (3-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 16-6 (1-4 upset)

For the first time in 20 years, the Big Ten is in the national spotlight without getting Ohio State involved (first time in 50 years if you don't involve Michigan either). Meanwhile, the SEC picks up the pieces of last week's dismantlings by #1 and #2, and a shootout by any other name threatens to deal a death blow to a 3rd Power 5 conference's Playoff hopes in this young season.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: I've been on Iowa all year at the likely top contender to OSU in the B1G and I stand by it.  Kinnick is a tough place to play, but Penn State is 'road tested' at Madison. Unfortunately for both teams, their big wins have aged poorly (Wisconsin, Auburn, and Iowa State).  I'm going to lean on the team that has home field and a nasty defense.  I'm honestly not sold on Penn State this year.  Clifford doesn't have enough to fight the Hawks defense.  PSU: 16--Iowa: 24
Hoying: Live by the turnover, die by the turnover. The Hawkeyes have been doing a lot of the former and none of the latter over the last five weeks, paving the way for five straight double-digit wins. The Ballhawkeyes reached the point of absurdity last week, picking off Tua's little brother five times to pace a blowout win over Maryland. What's not clear is whether Iowa can maintain this success without their opponents doing their best Santa Claus impression. Lowly Colorado State was actually +1 against the Hawkeyes and managed to keep the game close well into the second half. Can Iowa score without having consistently short fields to work with? Even if that answer is no, I'm not sure we'll find out against Penn State this week. I'm not on board the Sean Clifford train yet, as his completion rate has hovered around 50% in the two Big Ten games he's played so far. That inaccuracy plays right into Iowa's hands, and it's not like the Penn State offense has the rushing attack to keep the Hawkeyes honest. After this game, the Hawkeyes only have to face the dregs of the Big Ten West (i.e., the entire Big Ten West), so they won't be holding anything back in this one. I don't see a team outside of Ohio State producing the kind of balanced offense required to push the Hawkeye defense out of their comfort zone. The Penn State defense is no slouch, either, but Iowa gets a huge statement win...and stays parked at #3 until Alabama or Georgia loses. PSU: 17--Iowa: 20
Schweinfurth: I have been very impressed with the Iowa defense. The number of turnovers has just been staggering and has caused a lot of lopsided scores. Penn State is pretty good on defense is well, but doesn't get much help from the offense at times. To be honest, the only person that really scares me on the Lions offense is Dotson. This game has the feel of Penn State's week 1 thumper against Wisconsin, except that Iowa is better. Sean Clifford returns Penn State to its Pix Six U glory days here. PSU: 14--Iowa: 20

Seeberg: I see what you did with the title there Hoying, well done!  #nerdalert.  I realize it's hard to read much into last season, but I'm still more surprised at Penn State's ascension than Iowa's this season, doing it with a decent(?) QB, one standout WR and...and...exactly.  The Wisconsin win has been thoroughly devalued- as will the Auburn win in all likelihood this weekend.  Iowa, meanwhile, returned a ton of pretty good players just about everywhere and are playing a vanilla type of football that makes Jim Tressel's offense look like Mike Leach.  Still, when you force SEVEN turnovers, it's hard to argue.  The Hawkeyes are flat out not going to beat themselves, and that's a damn good quality.  It's going to take mistake-free football from a markedly more talented team to win, especially in Iowa City, and that just doesn't seem likely.  Enjoy another B1G coach of the year trophy/obligatory contract extension, Mr. Kirk.  PSU: 16--Iowa: 24

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: The Shootout has morphed into a real game this year.  Texas is quietly sneaking BACK into the conversation, while everyone is waiting for the hammer to drop on OU. The Sooners have been playing with fire all year, but they never seem to blink in this game of yet.  Texas is clicking, but Lincoln Riley will do enough to keep the hat in Norman. UT: 31--OU:34
Hoying: Who's the signature skill player in this year's Red River Shootout? Going into the season, you would have been forgiven for saying Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler, sitting at #1 on most preseason Heisman polls. But his play has been uneven, as Oklahoma has struggled to put up its usual big numbers on offense and has dispatched only lowly Western Carolina by multiple scores. No, the fireworks come from RB Bijan Robinson on the burnt orange side of the field, who's been having TreVeyon Henderson-esque days against every [non-SEC] team he's faced. Of course, Oklahoma is going to be an SEC team soon enough; is their defense tough enough to stop Robinson? I doubt it, as they didn't do a great deal to slow down Tulane or Kansas State, and those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. Sark makes a splash and resurrects the age-old question: is Texas back? UT: 31--OU: 27
Schweinfurth: Texas is not back and Oklahoma is overrated. Okay, now that we have that out there, neither of these are impressive. Texas seems to have found a rhythem by settling on one QB. Rattler looks like the QB that was benched last season. Oklahoma just looks getable this year and Texas is due. UT: 28--OU: 24
Seeberg:  Earlier this season, I stated the Longhorns would be medicore at best with that silly 2-QB rotation.  Well, Sark seems to have settled on a starter and his squad is reaping the benefits.  Oklahoma, for their case, has professionally meandered through their schedule so far, but should be as 'up' as they can be for the Red River Rivalry.  Have the Sooners been coasting, keeping things close to the vest for this game?  Perhaps.  Are the Sooners overrated?  A more-likely perhaps.  Are the Longhorns ALWAYS overrated?  Check.  This truly feels like a coin flip type of game, for the first time in quite some time.  I still trust Lincoln Riley more until I'm shown otherwise.  Sooners in a fun one.  UT: 31--OU: 38

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: What to do here? Arkansas has 2 nice wins but I have less faith in them as a whole.  Ole Miss has Kiffy-kins, but it's Ole Miss.  Both teams face-planted last week so who rebounds.  Honestly, I have no clue.  Kiffin can usually cook something up to score so let's go with the home team.  Ark: 24--Miss: 34
Hoying: Welcome to the Disappointment Bowl. Each of these teams had high hopes to score a signature win against a top-2 opponent last week, and neither came particularly close. Especially the Hogs. I don't blame them for not being able to move the ball against that invincible Georgia front, but giving up 37 points? To Georgia's backup QB? At least Ole Miss added some garbage time points to make the score look respectable. Arkansas has been battle tested this season in a way that Mississippi hasn't facing 3 ranked teams already and beating 2, but last week doesn't give me much hope for the Hogs going forward. The Rebel offense finds its footing and stomps the Razorbacks into the turf for the second time in as many weeks. Ark: 20--Miss: 34
Schweinfurth: Look, I'm here for good football. These two would be unranked if they played in any other conference. Little Lane and his massive ego are a bit bruised from Saban's woodshedding last week. Arkansas just seems like the lesser team to me, I don't know why. Ole' Miss gets the recovery win. Ark: 17--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Hard to piece together what happened last week to these two teams.  Bama and UGA may just be that much better than them (and everybody else, for that matter).  Still, a shutout of a power five school is pretty remarkable in 2021, let alone one that was in the top 20.  Ole Miss was shellacked for 2.5 quarters (not to mention also shut out for that length of time) until finally finding some rhythm after the game was no longer in doubt.  That second-half output at least gives the Rebs a glimmer of optimism, and a home crowd should fire them back up enough to beat the downtrodden Razorbacks.  Ark: 16--Miss: 27

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Georgia is really really good (especially on defense).  Auburn...had a nice showing vs. Penn State? This may be a rivalry game, but the Tigers simply don't have the horses.  The Dawg defense is stifling and while they may (MAY) give up a point this week, it won't be nearly enough to matter.  UGA: 27--Aub:10
Hoying: Speaking of the team that ruined Arkansas's feel-good season story, say hello to the invincible Georgia defense. The Dawgs have now played five games and have given up TWO touchdowns, both of which came in garbage time of blowouts. Does Auburn have a particularly effective or innovative offense? No. They have a good rushing attack and a junior quarterback who seems like he's been mediocre forever. This is the second of four consecutive ranked games for Georgia, and I don't expect them to break a sweat once, at least until they face Alabama in December. Bulldogs roll again. UGA: 34--Aub: 10
Schweinfurth:  Georgia good. Auburn bad. I will actually be suprised if the Tigers find the endzone here. Not a shutout for the Dogs, but another slaughter. UGA: 31--Aub: 3
Seeberg: Until Georgia actually gives up multiple touchdowns in a single game, there's not a ton to break down here, particularly with a 9th year starting quarterback at Auburn who's yet to be more than "meh" for the entirety of his career.  As demonstrated last week, it doesn't even matter who's under center for UGA, Dawgs roll.  UGA: 27--Aub: 6

Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Baby Tua's sheen has diminsed after the shellacking vs. Iowa last week.  The Bucks, on the other hand, are riding high after handing a better-than-you-think Rutgers team an embarrassing beatdown.  It appears Stroud has gotten right, and the connection with Olave and Wilson is improving everyday.  Let's not forget that this defense is starting to look, dare I say, competent?  Now the Terps will score a bit here, but I don't see them stopping the Bucks this weekend.  Treyveyon stays in for more than a quarter and racks up some stats, but the big plays over the top start to show up this week. Mary: 27-OSU: 51
Hoying: When has Ohio State lost games in the Meyer/Day era? Either the opponent was just better (Alabama 2020, Oklahoma 2017, Clemson 2016), or played the Buckeyes strength-on-strength and executed better or got some lucky breaks (Clemson 2019, Michigan State 2015, Michigan State 2013), or had some kind of gimmick to exploit (Purdue 2018, Virginia Tech 2014). Rutgers was not capable of any of these last week, which is why that game was not a trap game (and I correctly picked Ohio State to blow them out). Maryland, on the other hand, presents a bit of a problem. You wouldn't know it from last Friday's absolute disaster against the kleptomaniacal Hawkeye defense, but the Terps have quite the talented gunslinger behind center. You may know him as Tua Tagovailoa's little brother, and he's sitting at #2 in the Big Ten in passing yards per game behind our own Mr. Stroud. Granted, the Maryland passing attack was a bit nerfed this week as their ace receiver Dontay Demus sustained a season-ending injury, but they're still dangerous. This will be a big test for the new-look Silver Bullet secondary. Akron and Rutgers were never going to throw all over us, but this game may tell us how Ohio State may fare against the likes of Sean Clifford, Payton Thorne, and Adrian Martinez (Cade McNamara still sucks, though). Never forget how Anthony McFarland, Jr. almost single-handedly kept the 2018 Ohio State Buckeyes out of the Rose Bowl, and don't sleep on this Terp attack. That being said, good luck stopping a newly resurgent C.J. Stroud and his coterie of elite pass-catchers, backed up by the freshest and possibly (possibly, see the OU-UT writeup above) best running back in the nation. Iowa put up 50 on these guys; there'll be no one to stop us this time. Mary: 24--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: That was the Buckeye team we have been waiting to see. That was an improved Rutgers team and Ohio State treated them like they were, well, Buttgers. Maryland is a very feast or famine team. They are going to play lights out on offense, or they are going to throw a ton of picks. The multiple looks the Bucks have thrown out the last two weeks should be enough to confuse Taulia. I think a few more picks are in the offing this week. Offensively, just give the ball to TreVeyon and enjoy. This will be a better test to see how Stroud has progressed, and I expect him to continue to improve. The Bucks are going to score, and score often. Maryland may score, but there is no stopping this offense right now. Mary: 21--OSU: 56
Seeberg: Well, last week was fun wasn't it?  A short-field TD, a pick 6, and four minutes in the blowout was on.  Rutgers is improving, but the gap is still huge, as it is with the Terrapins coming to town.  Maryland is likely not as miserable as their wait-we-should-actually-keep-the-ball? performance against Iowa last week.  Unfortunately for the visiting team, the Buckeyes don't need seven turnovers to hang half a hundred on you.  The D seems to be improving, and getting healthier, in the new system.  Not to mention losing about 450 lbs. in deadweight in the form of 2 linebackers!  Offensively, Henderson staying healthy is clearly paramount.  Get him 12-15 touches and 130 yards and get him out.  Keep Olave fed (still can't believe he went without a catch), get Stroud to stop zeroing in on Wilson too obviously, and get to the bye week relatively unscathed.  Mary: 17--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Florida State over UNC
Hoying: Nebraska over Michigan
Schweinfurth: Rutgers over MSU
Seeberg:  Boise State over BYU

Week 5: Prove-It Saturday

Standings:

1.) Draper 13-4 (2-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 13-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 11-6 (3-1 upset)
3.) Hoying 11-6 (2-2 upset)

Last week's matchups might not have looked great on paper, but chaos reigned as two top 10 teams went down and three more ranked teams lost to unranked opponents. This week's slate leaves little possibility for disappointment. Two red-hot SEC teams take their shows on the road against the top two teams in the nation, while a familiar Group of Five team takes a running leap toward crashing the Playoff party for the first time.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Georgia has looked very...very good this year (primarily on defense).  The offense has been a little shaky, but the explosion against Vandy (yes, yes I know it was Vandy) was good to see.  Arkansas has absolutely been the party crasher of the year.  Beating Texas wasn't THAT special, but taking out A&M was a statement that they're here to compete.  BUT....are they on the Bulldogs level? Not yet.  I think this will provide a little bit of a shock to the system in a low scoring affair.  Dawgs keep truckin.  Ark: 10--UGA: 24
Hoying: Color me surprised. I didn't expect the Hogs to suffocate A&M on their way to an impressive 4-0 start. But if you want to be top pretender in the SEC, you have to knock off the current perennial maybe-threat to Alabama, the Georgia Bulldogs (no, Florida, nobody ever believes you'll actually beat the Tide). Georgia's been on a tear of their own over the last 3 weeks, against some admittedly terrible competition. The opening win over Clemson doesn't look as impressive now that the Tiger's out of the bag about Dabo's nonexistent offense in a post-Lawrence, post-Etienne world. Still, the Bulldog defense hasn't had an off week so far, and that's bad news for a terribly one-dimensional Razorback attack. Remember when Clemson had 2 rushing yards against Georgia? Yeah, that included 7 sacks by the Georgia D, and I don't expect the Hogs to have any better success running or throwing the ball than Clemson did. Georgia hasn't given up a touchdown outside of garbage time so far this year, and they might not until they see the Gators in Jacksonville. Arkansas just isn't at that top tier of teams yet. Ark: 6--UGA: 28
Schweinfurth: I REALLY wanted to pull the trigger on Arkansas last week. I just thought TAMU would actually show up. Are the Hogs that good, not really. Are they ranked high because all the teams are about equal this year, yes. Unlike TAMU, Georgia's defense is legit. I really don't see how the Hogs score on the Dogs. Top the off with the fact that Georgia may be the second best team in the SEC (who knows, everyone has issues). Arkansas fight hard, but Georgia wins. Ark: 9--UGA: 17
Seeberg:  Well, Arkansas now looks legit-ish after shutting down the Aggies.  TAMU has underperformed all year on offense, however, so it's hard to know how much to take from that win.  And speaking of underperforming offenses, a trip to Vandy certainly cured the Bulldogs of that ailment as they put up 62 last week.  Not expecting these two to even get to 62 combined, but the Bulldogs are still too talented to drop this one between the hedges.  Ark: 10--UGA: 24

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: So, what to do after the Irish 'blew out' the Badgers...well...upon further review, this was a close game (until a kickoff return and 2 pick 6's late).  I don't think the Badgers are anything special, but I REALLY don't expect anything from the Irish.  I remember the barn-burner against FSU and so does everyone else.  To Cincy...this is the chance. They have a legit shot at the playoffs for the first Group of 5 rep.  You need 3 things: 1) undefeated, 2) a few decent wins (ND and Indiana), and 3) a decent preseason ranking.  Cincy checks the boxes so far, but they need to cash in.  I think they get it done.  The major problem is the fact that this game is on peacock and NOT youtubeTV taking eyeballs away. If the Bearcats win and win impressively, they are a real threat for the playoff.  UC: 30--ND: 24 (as a Cincy sidenote: the sole possessors of 1st place in the AFC North say WHODEY!! SUPABOWL!)
Hoying: With all the conference realignment set to shake up the haves and have-nots over the next few seasons and potential Playoff expansion looming on the horizon, 2021 Cincinnati might be the Group of 5's last chance to crash the Playoff party before they're gifted an annual auto-bid. In order for a G5 team to fit the bill, they need (1) a relatively strong conference (check), (2) a weakened Playoff field overall (ACC is practically out already), and (3) a signature nonconference win. And look who's stepping up to the plate. It's the Fighting Irish, fresh off a blowout (of sorts) over the Wisconsin Badgers and still ranked in the top 10. The AAC hasn't had a chance like this since Houston opened the 2016 season with a win over Oklahoma. Are the Bearcats good enough to pull the [win while slightly favored]? Hard to say. They certainly looked the part last year, coming a late game meltdown away from going undefeated with a signature bowl win, but they struggled to put Indiana away in their last outing, trailing the Hoosiers in every quarter. The 'Cats have had an extra week to prepare for Notre Dame, but let's be honest with ourselves, they've been laser-focus locked into this game since before the season started. What better way to stake your claim to be a program's next head coach than to deliver them a humiliating defeat? The Irish, for their part, have their own problems. Long-time readers (thank you) will remember that none of us were bullish on the Irish last week, and the Wisconsin game doesn't really move the needle for me. Late pick sixes and kickoff returns are nice score padders but the Irish weren't able to do anything on offense. And now with Ice Cream Coan questionable to play, ND's problems on offense could be worsening. The G5 playoff train rolls along for at least another week. UC: 27--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Luke Fickell has built himself a program, huh? He has a legit and aggressive defense and a veteran QB. Notre Dame is Notre Dame. They are a good, top 10 program. Just two issues here: 1) Who is going to be the Irish QB this week, and 2) Can they run the ball. The Irish just cannot get the ground game going this year and has survived by some excellent play on defense. I just don't see a way the Irish win this if they can't run the ball, and they are going to struggle. Big win for the Fightin' Ficks in South Bend. UC: 28--ND: 21

Seeberg: *Heavy sigh* Ok, Ok, I'm done doubting Notre Dame.  They're still not legit championship contenders but they're solid on D (can we PLEASE steal Marcus Freeman from them??) and, though unspectacular on offense, they take care of the ball.  This is likely to play out similar to last week's game for the golden domers against Wiscy.  Neither of these teams is comfortable throwing the ball, but when Wisconsin was forced to throw it late when behind, the game quickly unraveled.  This is definitely the Bearcats' best chance for a win that boosts their resume into playoff-caliber, but they have to win it.  I just don't see them scoring enough to manage it.  ND pulls away late.  UC: 17--ND: 27

Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Lane Train gets to go up against the evil genius.  We all know that Saban just doesn't lose to old assistants....ever.  Ole Miss has been lighting up scoreboards all year, and Bama's defense isn't anything special...BUT Bama is still Bama, and they also break the scoreboard.  Saban's key to success has been adaptation.  He won with defense and running the ball for years. When offense became king, he reinvented the scheme.  Don't mess with what works.  Ole Miss is a nice flashy team, but flash doesn't usually beat the king.  Miss: 30--Bama: 44
Hoying: What's Lane got left in the bag? Last year the Rebels put up an impressive 48 points on Bama (you may remember Ohio State scoring half that much) running all of the plays that Saban hates to face. You're probably not going to fool Old Nick twice, so it might just be up to the Ole Miss horses to outplay the Tide strength-on-strength. Is this possible? Your first thought we be "no, of course not, no way," but remember that Florida essentially played Alabama to a draw not two weeks ago. Then again, Ole Miss is not quite Florida, at least not yet, and Bama won't be leaving the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny this time. Texas A&M is on tap for the Tide, but I really don't see them looking ahead, as Ole Miss is likely the deadlier foe. Gun to my head, I'd say this upset is likelier than Arkansas beating Georgia, but I still wouldn't count on it. Miss: 30--Bama: 41
Schweinfurth:  Bama feels vulnerable here and I don't know why. Lane just has Saban's number (even though he hasn't beaten him). But here's the thing, this is where Bama breaks the other team. Nicky owns his former assistants and the trend continues. BTW, I think this game would be closer if Lane would stop running his mouth. Saban will want to stick it to him. Miss: 28--Bama: 52
Seeberg: Solid slate of games this week!  The hits keep coming with Lane's boys against Bama.  Make no mistake, Ole Miss can score on anyone.  Stopping anyone, particularly the Tide, however, is not a sure thing.  Bama is also battled tested, getting a scare from Florida, and the Rebels have feasted on lesser foes.  Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...and I don't like the visiting team's chances of recovering from that punch.  Miss: 27--Bama: 45

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Completely forgot the Big 12 was still a conference.  I honestly have no clue about these teams, and I'm writing these late.  In the interest of time, I'm leaning on the better coach with homefield.  As a man who is 40 himself, Go Pokes.  BU: 24--OSU: 35
Hoying: I guess we should talk about the Big 12. With the ACC essentially eliminated from Playoff consideration and 3 undefeated teams remaining in America's second-favorite wrong-numbered conference, the Big 12 is in good shape to return to the Playoff after missing out last season. And if it's not going to be carpetbagging Oklahoma (it will), it's likely to be one of these true-blue Big 12 loyalists. Yeah, I'm falling asleep already too. The Cowboys are fresh off their first multiple-score win of the season after having faced the fearsome lineup of Missouri State, Tulsa (shut up), and Boise State to start the season. Maybe they'll have a chance to break through once Big Brother has gone to easterner pastures. Baylor did a nice job squeaking out a win over ranked Iowa State last week, but it's Iowa State, the Indiana of Vanderbilts. I frankly don't trust either of these teams, so I'll do a weasel pick and take the home team. BU: 28--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Let's put it this way, I haven't watched much Big-12 football outside of Oklahoma booing Spencer Rattler. I guess Ok St is better? Who knows. Either way, I'll just take the home team. BU: 35--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Is anyone in this conference for real?  The Sooners look pedestrian week after week, but I don't trust either of these teams much.  The Cowboys have 4 wins by a combined 24 points, including by just 5 over Tulsa (yes, that Tulsa) and a 1-point squeaker, albeit on the road, at Boise State.  Baylor, meanwhile, was thrust into the rankings after beating we-thought-they-would-be-good (they're not) Iowa State last week.  Still, when I don't know who to pick I tend to lean on the single unit that I believe is best- and in this case, it's the Baylor offense.  Bears buoy bad Big 12.  BU: 41--OSU: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Draper: Newsflash Buckeye Nation: this isn't your grandparent's Rutgers team.  Buttgers has been the laughing stock since...well before they joined the B1G, but Schiano is returning them to the glory year of 2006, but we're not there yet.  I see this as a Purdue level game (which was honestly terrifying in the Urban Era).  I think the team will enjoy welcoming Stroud back, but I hope the scheme is more creative this week and get the dang ball to Olave and Wilson.  Henderson is a mismatch as well so he'll get his, but I need to see more creativity in the passing game.  We have the 2 best receivers in college football and we aren't showcasing them.  I think this game will have the Buckeye faithful super nervous into the 2nd half, but Marotti time kicks in and the Bucks pull away.  Just get better every week.  OSU: 34--RU: 17
Hoying: Ah, this is the Rutgers we were promised when the Big Ten extended an invitation nearly a decade ago. The return of Greg Schiano has injected some competence into the Scarlet Knights. The B1G wins haven't followed, yet, but the Knights will have plenty of opportunities to pick up a signature win in a stacked Big Ten East this season. And after playing a hot Michigan team to a standstill with its excellent defense, Rutgers sets its sights on the big kahuna. Is Ohio State's offense capable of moving the ball where the Wolverines couldn't? In a word, yes. CJ Stroud is coming back, TreVeyon Henderson continues to improve seemingly on every carry, and the Buckeyes now feature the nation's top offense in terms of yards per play. Sadly, the Bucks are only #2 in total offense since the defense doesn't make it off the dang field enough, but that shouldn't be a problem against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a total of 30 points in the two games they've played against Power 5 opponents. Look for them to break out the bullcrap (like in the second half last year) but not to be a serious threat to take down Ohio State this year. This will be a good measuring stick for the Scarlet and Gray after last week's glorified scrimmage. If the domination continues, this season could have a happy ending after all. OSU: 45--RSUNJ: 17
Schweinfurth: Rutgers looks like it is finally getting better and that's not surprising. Schiano has brought credibility and has the players buying in. Rutgers almost pulled the annual Michigan shocker and absolutely dominated the second half. Here's a secret though, Michigan is a one trick pony on offense. The Buckeyes are the #2 ranked offense (by yards) in FBS. That's pretty good. The Scarlet Knights are going to sell out to stop TreVeyon Henderson. I don't think it matters much. I think Stroud is rested and ready to go. Olave is due for a big day and maybe even a few deep bombs this week. On defense, I'm just looking for more improvements, especially when backing into zones. Denzel Burke is owed an INT. Get up big, let Rutgers pull out the tricks to make it look close, and move on to a potentially HUGE game against *gulp* Maryland? OSU: 52--RU: 20
Seeberg:  Don't look now kids, but this is your older-older brother's Rutgers; well-coached, and actually starting to close the talent gap thanks to Schiano's return.  Ironically, both teams NEED to run the ball and control the clock and game flow, but only one WANTS to (not us).  Assuming Day isn't too stubborn with his play calling, a healthy dose of Henderson, Teague and Williams are needed.  It won't be the laughable whitewash this game has been literally every year since the Knights wandered aimlessly into the B1G 14, but a conference win over a +.500 opponent always looks good.  OSU: 31--RU: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Kentucky over Florida
Hoying: Stanford over Oregon
Schweinfurth: BC over Clemson
Seeberg:  Kansas State over Oklahoma

Week 4: Akron - City of Lights

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 11-2 (1-2 upset)
1.) Draper 11-2 (1-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 9-4 (2-1 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-4 (2-1 upset)

Neutral site games are stupid. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Let's get pumped for this one! A horribly underwhelming Irish team faces the standard fatguy football of the Badgers....but it's in Soldier Field! Why? SHUT UP THAT'S WHY! The Irish have a tendency to squeak by in games they should trounce the opponent then wake up in a game you don't expect them to win.  But this year....they just look terrible.  Wisconsin is super boring and couldn't outlast Penn State, but I think they'll be ok to end the outside shot of playoffs that the Domers hold.  Kelly waits another week to take the record from Rockne.  ND: 17 -- Wisc: 24

Hoying: Remember when Notre Dame opened the season with that epic victory over a seemingly resurgent Florida State. Yeah, that seems like a million years ago now that FSU followed up that performance with a capitulation to Jacksonville State and a blowout loss to Wake Forest. Notre Dame, for their part, hasn't lost a game yet but needed a last minute TD to get by Toledo after escaping the Noles in overtime. I don't trust the Irish at all; they can't run the ball and they replaced Playoff QB Ian Book with some castoff from a second-tier Big Ten school. And, speak of the devil, here now come the Badgers, with their own passing problems. At least the Badgers can run the ball again after a puzzlingly bad ground game in 2020 (except against Michigan, lol). I was tempted to write off UW after their ugly opening loss to Penn State, but last week showed that the PSU defense is for real, in a way that Notre Dame definitively is not. Remember how Alabama ground Notre Dame into paste in the [Rose] Bowl last year in the most boring way possible? Get ready for some deja vu in this one. ND: 10--UW: 21

Schweinfurth: For all the expectations Notre Dame had this year, they have been very underwhelming. The Irish defense has struggled and the offense doesn't have much identity. Wisconsin knows who they are and are going to bludgeon the inside of Notre Dame defensive line. This game is going to be a dirty, knockdown game. Perfect for the Badgers: ND: 17--UW: 21
Seeberg: Oh the irony here.  Former Wiscy QB doing Wiscy QB like things (you know, like sub-50% completion rates) against his former squad.  You would expect some solid motivation there, but the Golden Domers just aren't as good as their ranking would indicate.  Kinda like last year, and the year before, and damn near every year from Charlie Weis onward.  Not likely a pretty game here, but score one for the B1G.  ND: 13--UW: 20

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm slightly intrigued here...but only slightly.  Arkansas ran Texas out of the building, but that's because Texas is back (to being bad).  A&M was the chosen one to take down Bama...but....they've been super meh so far.  While Arkansas was flashy with the smashmouth football, I don't think they've played a real team yet.  Now, the Aggies are going to have just enough dumb to make this close, but I think they pull it out in one that is closer than the experts think.  TAMU: 30--Ark: 23

Hoying: When are we going to stop using Texas as a measuring stick for other teams? Ever since Colt McCoy's bones were ground to make Nick Saban's bread back in 2009, the Longhorns haven't had fewer than 3 losses in any non-COVID shortened season, and I don't put a great deal of stock in Arkansas punting UT back to Austin back in week 2. I mean, good for Arkansas that they aren't awful anymore, and LOL at Texas in their preview of what a nightmare SEC life will be, but Texas A&M has been living in SEC world since 2012, and they haven't lost to the Hogs in 9 meetings since joining up. The Aggies haven't been the sharpest tools in the shed this season either, struggling way, way too hard against Colorado while the Hogs were pummeling Texas, but this is an A&M team that barely missed out on the Playoff last year, and I don't think Arkansas has closed the gap quite yet. TAMU: 24--Ark: 21

Schweinfurth: To be honest, I really haven't watched much of these two teams. I do know that TAMU doesn't look like a team that argued to be the #4 seed last year. Arkansas will make this one interesting, and I might have picked them if this was at home (stupid neutral site games). Jimbo squeaks another one out. TAMU: 28--Ark: 27
Seeberg:  Well, the Aggies started the season with a lot of hype, the team of the season that can challenge Bama in the west (LOL).  Three pedestrian wins later, including a 10-7 snoozefest over mediocre Colorado, and that moniker is threatening to be replaced by the Razorbacks, buoyed by a win over still-not-back Texas.  I don't really trust either of these teams much, particularly with a young QB Calzadas at TAMU taking over for just his second start, only mustering 34 points against New Mexico.  The unit I trust most, however, is the Aggies' D giving up just 17 points through 3 weeks.  Forcing a couple turnovers and winning the field position battle should settle the young QB enough to sneak out a W.  TAMU: 24--Ark: 17

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: RIVALRY RENEWED!! Schiano enters this Titanic struggle of undefeateds in a most un-Buttgers fashion.  The Scarlet Knights believe they are going to win, but Syracuse this is not.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sold on the maize and blue yet.  This game provides a level 2 test for the Wolverines (more than Rutgers has been since....), but I don't see the Knights ready to break through yet.  Michigan has been running the same "Look at how good we are against crappy teams" (wouldn't mind if OSU tried this in 2021), but can they up the game when the talent gets closer to even.  No, Rutgers doesn't have Michigan level talent, but it's closer than Northern Illinois.  The Wolverines will win convincingly, but Schiano won't let the team get destroyed. RU: 17--UM: 42 

Hoying: I'll admit, this matchup was a lot more intriguing on paper before Rutgers' best defender decided to have a drive-by paintball shooting and got suspended from the team. Rutgers ground out a steady road win over Syracuse, sandwiched between two obliterations of lesser opponents. Greg Schiano is starting to recapture the magic, and the Scarlet Knights aren't a gimme game in the Big Ten East anymore (more on that next week). That being said, Rutgers does not appear to be quite on the same level as their oldest Big Ten rival, as the Wolverines are on an absolute tear to start the 2021 season. Yeah, they're not playing great teams, and yeah, McNamara appears to be your run-of-the-mill Harbaugh quarterback, but, to put it mildly, the running game is going to be a bit of a problem. The Wolverines have two running backs on pace for 1,000 yards, with Blake Corum within striking distance of doubling that mark. Michigan hasn't averaged 5 yards per carry in any Harbaugh era season. This year they're averaging 7. We've seen hot starts turn sour for the maize and blue under Harbaugh before, but if this squad can escape Camp Randall next week, they might not taste defeat until at least November. Michigan keeps rolling for now. RSUNJ: 14--UM: 35

Schweinfurth: Schiano keeps building and building at New Jersey's state school, but Harbooger just has more talent at Michigan. Look, the Wolverines can run the ball and have an identity. That much has been established and I think that's how this game will go. I can totally see Michigan getting a decent lead and the Rutgers busting out the trick plays. It's what they do. Michigan wins, but Buttgers scores some stupid TDs late. RU: 24--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Are...are the Wolverines back?  Certainly seems more likely than the Longhorns at least.  Bringing Schiano back to Rutgers where he had them up to #2 in the country at one point (yes, you read that right) was pure genius and it's already starting to pay dividends.  He needs another year or two to fill out the roster his way, however, and last year is looking more and more like a fluke for the maize and blue.  I don't like it either.  I FINALLY got the Cooper-year jitters out of my system and now they're competent again?  Damn.  RU: 20--UM: 34

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: Ok....Akron is bad.  Like really, REALLY bad.  So bad that Ryan Day has chosen to rest his starter in the game.  This is an interesting move as it doesn't happen in college very often, but I think it's pretty savvy.  Look, OSU has struggled in the first 3 games (even though Oregon is really good), but you can see that Stroud isn't quite right.  Part of it is mental (I'm sure he got death threats and the like from idiots on social media) but there is also a physical component with his shoulder.  The QB room for OSU is stacked, and this will give the staff some time to test these prospects under fire while not risking much (...hopefully).  Coach Day should (in my opinion) completely throw all support behind C.J., but let him rest.  There will be more internet coaches that will tell him it's time to change QBs, but this is an opportunity to learn without crushing your starter.  Trust Henderson, Olave, and Wilson to make explosive plays and hope the defense can get a little better each week.  The line is still a monstrous 48.5 points.  OSU could cover it, but I think the dogs will be called off early.  I'm just hoping it's not raining :(.  Akron: 10--OSU: 52
Hoying: I can't get a bead on whether this season of Buckeye football has been weirder than recent years. 2018 had the sudden and unexpected problems on defense and in the running game, which we never really figured out and which never really went away. 2015 had an offense largely intact from piling up big points in a National Championship run suddenly grind to a halt, only to reawaken once it was too late. And of course 2020 speaks for itself. But something seems really off this year. Multiple players are unavailable for mysterious reasons, quarterback play is wildly inconsistent, defensive play is consistently awful, and there just seems to be an air of general unease, like everyone's not pulling in the same direction. At least we seem to have figured out the running game for the next 3 years (heck, let's get Trey Henderson enough NIL money to stick around for 4). The QB situation will be fascinating to watch over the coming weeks. It shouldn't (SHOULDN'T) be much of a task for McCord or Miller to put up big numbers against an awful Akron team, but I can't imagine that will move the needle from Day's commitment to Stroud as the starter. When Braxton Miller was nursing a knee injury in 2013, Kenny Guiton put up JV-mode video game numbers against FAMU after rolling Cal the week before, and then he disappeared for the rest of his career. But when Justin Zwick went down against Iowa in 2004, Troy Smith seized the job and didn't look back until the Heisman Trophy Trust called his name. For the fourth time this young season, I have no idea what to expect from this game, other than I don't foresee a Buckeye loss as a possibility. Hopefully the ball will find a few more receivers' hands (welcome back, Chris Olave), and Henderson can cement his spot as one of the top running backs in the country. And defense? Use this opportunity to try everything else you've got in the bag. You're going to need to be ready for Rutgers next week (not a joke). Akron: 17--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This game just got spicy. I've been saying it for two weeks. I think Stroud's shoulder is worse off than the coaching staff is letting on. You don't miss some fall camp days for no reason. Props to CJ for battling through, but sitting him for this game is the right call. Let's be honest, the Buckeyes could tell Akron they are running every play and still get at least 5 yards per carry. I am very interested to see how Kyle McCord and Jack Miller look (yes, Akron is bad). Guys will be open, but if they can hit Olave and Wilson deep and in stride, we may have a conversation here. Defensively, get the pass rush right and tighten up the zones a bit more. There is a huge problem if Akron throws for more than 200 yards. Score early and often, get the starters out and stay healthy. Akron: 13--OSU: 59
Seeberg:  From week one I had my concerns about Stroud, watching him roll his arm over periodically, as if something was tweaked in his shoulder.  Nice to know I'm not paranoid, and definitely a good idea to rest him against the MAC bottom feeder.  Olave going catchless last week, to me, was a function of Stroud's arm not feeling great, the fact that he locks in on Wilson a lot, and a stupid holding penalty.  Getting CO2 going again is crucial, and the play action game should work as we are capable of running for a half-marathon's worth of yards on the Zips.  Run it early, throw it in the middle, rest everyone late.  Tyreke Smith back should aid the front 4 getting pressure also.  Drop 7, work some coverages and keep somebody under 20 please?  Akron: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: NC State over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg:  South Florida over BYU