Week 4: The Fruits of Realignment

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 9-3 (0-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 9-3 (0-3 upset)
3.) Hoying 8-4 (1-2 upset)
3.) Draper 8-4 (0-3 upset)

It's hard to believe that it's bowl season already, with all of these premium interconference battles peppering the landscape...what's that? USC/Michigan isn't a Rose Bowl matchup anymore? Tennessee isn't meeting Oklahoma in the Sugar? Utah isn't playing...well, it's been tough keeping track of what conference the Utes are in since the days when Urban made them the original BCS buster. Enjoy living in the middle times before the Power 2 subsume all of the remaining programs of value.

Southern California Trojans @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: The reigning National Champions* limp into week 4 in what most considered an epic replay of Rose Bowls past.  Fortunately, I expect this to be a replay of Rose Bowl past....but not so epic.  SC has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings (Rose Bowls) from the maize and blue and it's hard to imagine something different playing out in this game.  Something seems to be off on the Wolverines' side this year....I can't QUITE put my finger on what could have caused this MASSIVE fall from dominance.  The QB play has been atrocious in Ann Arbor leading to a change to Alex Orji, the presumed starter entering the year.  The fact that he was passed up is a serious indictment of his throwing ability.  He's a huge human that can run, but he must have been a train wreck to lose the starter's job.  On the other side of the ball Miller Moss has been fantastic running Lincoln Riley's scheme and showed more poise than I've seen in a QB in a long time vs. LSU--which bodes poorly for the UM crowd.  The defense of the Wolverines won't be enough to end the Trojans streak.  USC: 27--UM:16
Hoying: Are we sure that USC is legit this year? As I wrote in my LSU preview, it takes a Jeff Hafley level DC to wash the stink of Alex Grinch off in the span of one offseason. But the Trojans may have found their own industrial solvent in D'Anton Lynn. After slowing down LSU in their opener, SC choked out Utah State and looked like the Silver Bullets doing so. And now they've had an extra week to get ready for an offense that seems to have no idea what it's doing. The Wolverines' roster behind center consists of the guy who can't throw, the guy who doesn't throw (now this week's starter), and a former backup at...Indiana. UM is better on defense but we just saw them get shredded by a competent quarterback not two weeks ago, and the total counterpunch paralysis of their offense did them little favors. During the offseason, Vegas put Michigan's win total for their """"""""title"""""""" defense at 9.5, but if the Cheat Weasels get embarrassed for the second time in three weeks, it might be time to stop taking bowl eligibility for granted. USC: 24--UM: 17

Schweinfurth: The Wolverines are a shell of their former selves. It's almost like losing half your starters ON TOP of losing the ability to know what play is coming has a detrimental effect. Add in a coach who is way out of his depth and hahahahahaha. UM can't throw the ball. At. All. They can run the ball, but if you know it's coming, you can stop it. USC isn't exactly a world beater, but they are better the TUN. The Trojans win and bump the cheaters and the worst from the rankings. USC: 31--UM: 9

Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here.  It's lost some luster from UM's side after their lousy game against Texas, but gained some shine with USC's actual defense(!) and win over LSU to start the year.  I'm not sold a ton on LSU just yet, nor am I sold on either of these two teams.  It is certainly a matchup of strength on strength (USC offense vs. UM defense) and bleh against maybe-not-quite-so-bleh now in UM's offense and the surprisingly respectable USC defense so far.  Sherrone Moore has looked anything but competent as a head coach thus far- probably why he didn't have a contract.  Their QB situation is just alternating dumpster fires, but announcing to the world that Orji would start at the beginning of the week gave the USC defense an even easier time to prep for whatever run-based garbage they throw out.  It's just tough to imagine that team scoring more than 20 on any competent defense, and since USC looks suddenly competent, that's all I need to know.  USC: 20--UM: 13

Utah Utes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: I've seen reports that this could be the first of 2 meetings which wouldn't be a shock since these teams are both pretty mid.  Cam Rising should add a boost to the Utah attack against Mike Gundy since he's a man...he's 40!  If Rising is still out, this should be a heavy reliance on high T football on both sides with Micah Bernard and Ollie Gordon. Gordon was a darkhorse Heisman candidate in the preseason but hasn't gotten off the ground as of yet.  This is a huge stage to take the step forward, but the Ute defense has always been stout.  I usually go with the home team in these scenarios (especially in Boone Pickens) but I'm riding with the Utes in the 'who really cares' game of the week.  UU: 24--OkSt: 21
Hoying: So we all know that the SEC and the Big Ten run the world now, especially since the only team outside of those two conferences with multiple Playoff game wins, Clemson, hasn't been in serious title chase mode for several seasons now. We could charitably say that Miami could make a credible run at a respectable entry into the 12-team field this year, but we need to find a fourth team to fill out the first field of first-round byes. And since we have to keep pretending that the Big 12 is a power conference for a few more years, one of these teams has as good a chance as any to snag that last coveted spot. Oklahoma State has quietly put up Wisconsin levels of consistent success throughout the Playoff era, without a single Playoff appearance. Utah has burned a little brighter during their peak years but always faceplanted when the big prize is in front of their faces. At least they have their back-to-back Rose Bowl runners-up performances to keep them warm at night. You might remember the first of such Rose Bowls as Marv's coming out party, and Cam Rising was still Utah's starting QB back then. And just like every season since then, he's kind of hurt and might / might not play against the Cowboys. Not that it should matter: the Utes have comfortably dispatched their early season foes with Okie State got thoroughly outplayed by, and managed to barely escape, C-tier SEC team Arkansas. Utes get the big road win. UU: 20--OkSt: 17

Schweinfurth: Man there is some experience at QB in this game. Both teams QBs are *checks notes* old. I always get in trouble picking against Utah, but this isn't the Utes team that made the Rose Bowl and won the Pac-12. They seem somewhat diminished. OKSt isn't much better, and this should be close. I'll take the home team. UU: 21--OkSt.24

Seeberg:  I'm not sure what season Cam Rising is in, but I know I'm not surprised that he's injured yet again.  The middle-of-the-country OSU struggled with the Razorbacks but handled their business against Tulsa the following week.  Utah will be prepared and they will play hard, but it's difficult to see them hanging for four quarters with their backup QB.  The Utes wear down on D and Okie State pulls away late.  UU: 13--OkSt: 27

Tennessee Volunteers @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: While Texas is thriving after the SEC move (although they haven't played a decent team yet), Oklahoma has looked shaky at best.  Brent Venables might has the Sooner defense ramping up (a bit), but the offense isn't getting it done against subpar competition.  The Vols, on the other hand, have been putting up ridiculous numbers against the paperbags they've faced.  Perhaps NCState is decent (I doubt it), but UT has been absolutely dominant thus far.  I expect that to continue here.  Josh Heupel knows what it's like in Norman and I expect him to leave victorious once more with Nico Iam...Iam...IamthreattowintheSEC?? UT: 40--OU:24
Hoying: What a reversal of fortune the post-COVID era has wrought upon these two storied programs. The once high-flying Oklahoma Sooners have emerged as some type of Tressel-ball defense-first team, and they have the unimpressive win over mediocre nonconference foe Houston to prove it. Tennessee has more or less risen from their two decade slump to be a perennial SEC contender under Josh Heupel, and they've looked as good as anyone in the country over the season's opening month. No need to overthink this one, the Vols' hot streak isn't cooling until at least the Third Saturday in October. UT: 34--OU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oklahoma is a long way from the Lincoln Riley teams that were running the Big-12. Bring in the Volunteers, who are just running teams this year. Yikes. I think this is a rude introduction into the SEC for the Sooners. Vols win big. UT: 35--OU: 17

Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, astounded at how good my second alma mater has looked this year.  The Vols' purported $8-million QB has looked worth every penny.  Oklahoma struggled mightily against Houston (no, this isn't basketball season) and had difficulty putting away Tulane the very next week.  One would think the Houston game would have been a wakeup call, or maybe the Sooners just aren't all that great.  Either way, the orange-clad juggernaut doesn't look likely to slow down any time soon.  Vols roll.  UT: 41--OU: 20

Marshall Thundering Herd @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Speaking of complete beatdowns, the Bucks have done what you're supposed to in the 'preseason'.  The win over WMU was one of the most complete beatdowns I've witnessed.  Keeping a living breathing team from reaching 100 yards...in game where your offense rarely punted?? Absolute destruction by the Bullets (which is what we expected to happen).  Marshall may have a playmaker or two, but if you listen to the Coach of the Herd, he's falling over himself in delivering the accolades (rat poison?) to the Buckeyes.  This team is too veteran to overlook an opponent on the national stage (Big Noon what???). I'd like the Bucks to establish a little more downfield passing in this game early (to receivers not named Smith---and Smith too) then just lean on them with the run.  Chip had the backs cooking last game, so I'd like to get Howard prepped for making plays more than managing before the B1G season gets going.  Howard for 300 and 3, the 2 headed backfield adds 3 more and the Bucks cruise into conference play.  Oh yeah, Marshall kicks a stupid FG late to break up the shutout.  Marshall: 3--OSU: 51
Hoying: After a strong two week start, all of the pieces seem to be coming together for the Buckeyes to make another title run. We haven't seen any position group be seriously challenged yet, but each has proven that its game plan can work at least in concept. If nothing else, this season should be more fun than 2015's miserable mismanagement of elite talent. And, unlike some elite Buckeyes of recent past (looking at you, 2022) the coaches have actually been willing to rotate pretty deeply at every position, so the Buckeyes should be inoculated against any devastating injuries down the stretch. Then again, if Howard goes down...let's just hope that any such injury would be early enough in the season for Sayin to get up to speed. Danny Kannell and others may roll their eyes at  the latest cupcake finishing off Ohio State's less than impressive nonconference slate, but the more unfortunate truth for the Bucks' SOS is that their conference opponents don't look all that strong either. Outside of Oregon and Penn State, the Buckeyes may not even play another ranked team all year. That's where the style points come in. Clemson played a lot of garbage week in and week out during their title runs, but the Playoff Committee gave them a pass because they pulverized their opponents into fine powder. So another big performance this week would go a long way toward preserving the Buckeyes' Playoff hopes should a 2019 Clemson-style meltdown seize them in one of their few big games this season. No mercy. Marsh: 6--OSU: 52

Schweinfurth: That may have been the most ill-timed bye week I've ever seen. This Buckeye team was rolling and then...nothing. It does give Will Howard some time to watch film and work on his reads, but this team really did not need the bye week now. At least they get another one later in the season. Now to this game. It's another mismatch. Marshall does run an air raid offense, so they will get some yardage and cheap points. I feel like Judkins and Henderson roll for at least 100 yards each.  Enjoy the last blowout before B1G play starts up. Mar: 7--OSU: 52

Seeberg: I realize that it's nearly impossible to plan a season slate this perfectly, but somehow, here we are.  Conference realignment upheaval canceled our former nonconference bout with Washington and we find ourselves with three group of 5 opponents to start the season, each a half step up from the previous one.  Marshall hung with Virginia Tech and, ironically, they play Western Michigan next week so we'll know for sure who is better.  The Buckeyes, however, could beat an all-star team of all three teams combined by at least 21.  The bye week felt...poorly timed as both units clicked on all cylinders in a 56-0 win two weeks ago.  The defense looked poised and disciplined, the offense, even with subs on the O-line, made the run game look good and Jeremiah Smith is just terrifyingly elite for an 18-year-old.  Getting lots of reps for backups at ALL positions is critical too, as injuries are inevitable in this long grind.  Also, have you noticed how we haven't been taking timeouts for not getting a play call decided or horrendous special teams mismanagement?  Amazing what happens when you trim dead coaching weight and delegate properly.  Ryan Day can now be JUST the head coach on game days, and the result is more fluidity and less indecision.  56-0 may be a tall ask, but the domination should still appear.  Start fast, play hard, get reps for everyone.  We'll see you in the B1G 18 next week.  MAR: 6--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: USF over Miami
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Louisville
Schweinfurth: NC St over Clemson
Seeberg: Buffalo over Norther Illinois

Week 3: Pac-12 Fever

Standings:

1.) Hoying 6-2 (1-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 6-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 6-2 (0-2 upset)
4.) Draper 5-3 (0-2 upset)

Just when we thought the Pac-12 was out, they pull us back in. But while we're waiting for the resurrection of 2-Pac into the glorious and refreshing 6-Pac, a couple of longstanding Oregon Territory rivalries hang on for at least another year.

Arizona Wildcats @ Kansas State Wildcats (Friday night)

Draper: Neither of these teams has looked particularly competent on the year.  Kansas State nearly dropped the ball to Tulane last week and Arizona has looked pedestrian at best against poor competition.  Noah Fifita has some juice at QB for Zona, but the star is Tetairoa McMillan at WR.  He absolutely lit up UNM for 304 (!) yards, but did nothing vs. Northern Arizona.  I don't know what to expect out of this game, but I think the scare by Tulane last week will have the Wildcats (of Kansas St.) focused.  Home game gives the edge.  Who are we? The Wildcats! Zona: 27--KSA: 34
Hoying: Much like last Saturday's ranked chump of the week (NC State), here we find two teams that happen to be ranked just because we have to fill 25 spots. Somewhere out there are lurking a few teams that will reveal themselves to actually be worthy of those rankings but I don't think it will be either of these two. Arizona got off to slow starts in each of their games against New Mexico and Northern Arizona before pulling away late. Against UNM, WR Tetairoa McMillan was the hero but he was practically non-existent last week as the Wildcats struggled to do anything through the air. Kansas State at least blew out FCS UT Martin before struggling to put away Tulane last week on a go-ahead fumble return and an end zone interception in the closing seconds. Maybe everything we heard about Will Howard fleeing KSU to avoid being on the chopping block was a bit overblown, as his replacement, Avery Johnson, is averaging a paltry 167 yards through the air per game. Tulane was able to have good success in the passing game against Kansas State and I'm thinking the Cardinal and Navy Wildcats can do the same. Zona: 27--KSU: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm really not sure how good Arizona is. Kansas State appears to be one of the better teams in the Big-12 this year. The Wildcats should pull away late. Zona: 21--KSU: 34

Seeberg:  Excellent sweet 16 matchup here...hang on, wait, I'm being told this is actually a ranked football matchup.  Wonders never cease (still probably more worthy of being ranked than Notre Dame though).  Two weeks worth of games have given us very little about these two squads, the toughest opponent being Tulane so far, who actually gave the Plains Wildcats a scare.  I trust K-State's offense the most of any of the four main units on this team, and that's enough for me.  Zona: 24--KSU: 31

Boston College Eagles @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Boston College is sneaky in this game.  Beating FSU doesn't mean much this year, but they have some talent that hasn't been in Chestnut Hill of late.  Missouri had a fantastic 2023 and has kicked off 2024 in style with back to back shutouts.  The SEC schedule is going to be brutal on the Tigers, but they'll like stay clean here.  I expect BC to hang around with a few deep drives by Castellanos, but it won't be enough down the stretch.  MIZ.  BC: 17-Mizzou: 31
Hoying: Ah, now here are some ranked teams who have done something. For Boston College, it was win a game on Irish home soil (which I guess makes them at least as good as Northern Illinois), while Missouri has been following the Buckeye blueprint of just punishing lesser competition, to the tune of an aggregate 89-0 through two games. I don't need to tell you about Missouri; they are capable to holding a team with Lincoln Kienholz level play to 3 points while finally breaking through an elite defense after ramming their heads against the wall for three quarters. A #6 ranking might be a bit optimistic for this Missouri team but they'll be able to dream on for at least another month before it's put up or shut up time in Tuscaloosa. BC: 10--Mizzou: 31

Schweinfurth: BC is an okay team. Mizzou seems sneaky good again to me. The Tigers should win this with defense. BC: 13--Mizzou: 35

Seeberg:  Let's be honest about this one, the Eagles are ranked solely on the back of a now-useless win against Florida State.  Mizzou, meanwhile, looks poised to become the next SEC team that threatens to break into the top echelon, stacking a couple of good years in a row.  The Tigers may not quite be there yet in their home conference, but they're certainly potent enough- particularly on defense- to shut down a second-tier ACC team.  Tigers roll.  BC: 10--Mizzou: 27

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies

Draper: I don't think I've EVER picked this game correctly. This is mainly due to my love of Mike Leach (RIP), but I just whiff every time. The Cougs have looked pretty good against paper thin defenses thus far while Washington has been fine, but is nothing like the 2023 National Champion runners-up*.  While we have no real info on either team, I'll stick with the B1G team with a semblance of a defense.  The win of Texas Tech is nice but their defense is ATROCIOUS.  When in doubt, go for the home team.  WSU: 20--Wash: 30
Hoying: Long live the Big Ten / Pac-12 challenge. This is the only Power 2 team that the Cougars get to play this year so they'd better make it count. WSU has looked surprisingly competent so far this year, blowing out Texas Tech by racking up over 300 yards on the ground to overcome their QB's atrocious passing...game...wait, which team is this again? I know that Mike Leach left his mark on each of these programs but they seem eager to wash it off quickly in Pullman. Perhaps that's just the price of losing Cam Ward to Miami. Speaking of transfer quarterbacks, Will Rogers has settled nicely into Washington's offense, but he's no Michael Penix, and much like the other two Playoff teams we looked at last week, UW is really hurting from offseason losses. The difference is that one of these teams got promoted at season's end and the other was left twisting in the wind, and the portal results reflect the brutal new reality for Wazzu. The Apple Cup may never be the same again. WSU: 20--Wash: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm so glad they didn't ruin this rivalry. Wazzu has some hate built up over the Pac-12. I'm just not sure hate is enough. Washington is the better overall team. WSU: 17--Wash 38

Seeberg:  Brutal to pick a game like this (or the next one, for that matter) so early in the season.  Rivalry games can get nuts regardless, and these two squads have played a combined GARBAGE schedule thus far, leaving most of their abilities to the imagination.  The Huskies have obviously taken a step back from last season, but they still have more talent and better coaching.  Quite frankly, that doesn't always lead to wins in this series, but the Huskies' D appears pretty legit, and should be enough to hoist the Apple Cup.  WSU: 17--Wash: 23

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: I've been wholly unimpressed with Oregon thus far.  Boise has a solid running game but the Ducks were primed for my upset pick last week without 2 special teams TDs.  That being said, I think the Broncos are likely better than the Beavers.  I do expect Oregon to get these kinks worked out, but even without, there is no good reason to lean on the Beavers.  The Pac-2 may be expanding to 6 soon, but the west coast OSU doesn't inspire fear in opponents.  Ducks roll.  UO: 38-OSU: 20
Hoying: Oregon apparently thought their lofty #3 preseason ranking was an excuse to just go on cruise control until the Buckeyes came to town at season's midpoint, as they've struggled against both Potato State opponents they've faced so far. Granted, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is going to be a problem for any defense he faces, but the holes on defense are what grounded the Ducks in their two losses to Washington last year, and they're going to have to find an answer to Quinveyon Herderkins or risk getting run out of their own building in a few weeks. But the Ducks need to knock it off with the snooze alarm now. Oregon State may have been completely overmatched in last year's Civil War but they're fresh off a total dismantling of future Pac-12 compatriot San Diego State. Oregon should be much, much better than its eastern neighbor this season but the half-butt effort we've seen the last two weeks won't get the job done this time. This is where the rivalry motivation can do wonders to get a team in gear during an extended period of blah. If Oregon looks off for a third time, it might be time to hit the panic button and declare the Big Ten a presumptive one-team race. UO: 34--OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon has been struggling on offense. They just seem to be in neutral and can't find the endzone. Odd. Oregon State is overmatched in this game. However, I can definitely see the Ducks offense continuing to struggle here. This one should be close until late. UO: 31--OSU:24

Seeberg: I'm highly surprised at the Ducks' start this season.  Gabriel has been putting up video game stats (84.3% completion is insane against air) but those stats have only translated into 29 ppg somehow.  The west coast OSU is, well, the least competent of the three OSU squads.  Again, rivalry games can get crazy, and early in the year it can be hard to draw conclusions, but the dam has to break for TDs for the Ducks sooner rather than later.  Quack quack, here comes the flying V!  UO: 42--OSU: 24

Upset Special
Draper: Tulane over Oklahoma
Hoying: Purdue over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Alabama
Seeberg:  North Texas over Texas Tech

Week 2: Not So Great Lakes State

Standings:

1.) Hoying 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)
4.) Draper 2-2 (0-1 upset)

After the season-opening fireworks of week 1, quality matchups are a bit harder to find in week 2. All eyes are focused up north for That Team Living on Borrowed Time to start making payments with interest, while the Buckeyes are back under the lights in the early season for the third time in four years.

Texas Longhorns @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: This is clearly the matchup of the week...but I'm expecting a dud here.  TTUN has a real live defense that can hang with anyone in the country.  Joyfully, their offense is an absolute disaster.  Orji can't take the starting job from a reincarnation of Cade McNamara (actually worse) and the cover athlete for EA College Football 25 stunk it up last week.  Texas came out firing, but it was against a paper bag so we'll learn something about them this week.  Ewers is hoping to keep his name in the Heisman race and this would go a long way in that mission.  I just don't see a world in which the Wolverine offense can put up enough points to support their defense in their marquee non-conference matchup. While this program will face the executioner soon, this will be the beginning of the end on the field.  Expect a slugfest early, but there won't be enough points for the maize and blue to take out the Longhorns.  Hook them.  UT: 27--UM: 13
Hoying: But for Texas being completely incapable of stopping Michael Penix in last year's Sugar Bowl semifinal, this would have been your 2024 National Championship. And the Wolverines probably would have steamrolled the Longhorns just as effortlessly as they did the Huskies. But other than maybe adding a little extra spice to the visitors' motivation, that doesn't really matter for this year's matchup. JJ McCarthy's gone, Blake Corum's gone, Zak Zinter, Roman Wilson, Kris Jenkins (stupid Bengals)...this is not the same team that's had a stranglehold on the Big Ten in the post-sportsmanshipCOVID era. The Longhorns saw the second-most departing players selected in last year's draft (second only to you-know-who), including standout WR Xavier Worthy, but should be a bit better poised to weather the storm. I have a sneaking suspicion that Texas won't live up to their early top-5 ranking, but I'm more convinced that UM won't be reaching the heights of their last three seasons anytime soon (why, we'll never know). Hook them. UT: 24--UM: 13

Schweinfurth: I'm going to preface this by saying I didn't get to see any of Texas' game last week. However, I did get to see most of the Wolverines' stinker against Fresno St, and boy do they have some problems. Donovan Edwards looked lost trying to run the ball and Orji is a mess throwing the ball. There was a time when I actually thought that game was going to come down to the wire, but the UM defense bailed them out. I can't see where the Wolverines score more than 14 points with that popgun offense. Texas will have some issues moving the ball at times, but they should be able to get the drives they need to win. UT: 21--UM: 13 

Seeberg:  Is Texas back?  A top 10 opponent on the road would, in theory, give us some clarity on that annual question.  However, most agree the recently vaunted maize and blue have taken steps backwards, on offense and in intel.  Texas looked the part, demolishing a woeful foe 52-0 last week while UM managed just two offensive touchdowns against a second-tier G5 team.  Maybe coaching without a contract will do that to a guy?  To me, this has the feel of last year's OSU-Mizzou game.  There's little chance the UM offense can sustain drives consistently, and as good as that defense is, they are likely to get worn down by quarter number four.  Plus, Buckeye-adjacent QB Quinn Ewers gets it.  He wants to take down the team up north too.  Horns up.  UT: 27--UM: 17

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Does Iowa finally have an offense to go with the stout defense? Honestly, the answer is almost assuredly no, but there is more hope this year that they can get above the Mendoza line.  Regarding the Clones, I don't know much about them this year, but the Matt Campbell honeymoon phase is drawing to a close.  Iowa has won of the last 10 in this matchup and the game is in Iowa City.  The Wave outdoes the Cyclones for another B1G non-conference win.  ISU: 10--Iowa: 20
Hoying: Finally, Iowa's long nightmare is over: Brian Ferentz is off the sidelines. True, his dismissal isn't exactly the removal of Vecna's restraining device but the Hawkeyes should at least be able to function without being actively held back when they have the ball. Every Iowa OC is allotted a fixed amount of points over their career, and Brian chose to use them all against Ohio State in 2017. Anyway, the Iowa attack should also gain a bit of breathing room from the absence Iowa State's star LB Caleb Bacon, out this week with a leg injury. The Hawkeyes took care of their FCS opponent with much more aplomb than Iowa State did last week, and I think they'll keep their momentum rolling here. Iowa: 20--ISU: 13

Schweinfurth: Ahhh, El Assico. Will we see the offensive ineptitude we have seen the last few years? Probably, but Iowa looks like they can actually run the ball. With the Iowa defense still looking stout, this one will still be a slog. ISU: 9--Iowa: 24

Seeberg:  Iowa had three touchdown receptions by wide receivers last week.  Iowa had three touchdown receptions by wide receivers last season.  Incredibly, both of the aforementioned statements are true.  To say Iowa's offensive futility has been fixed is about as grandiose an overstatement as one can make in the college football landscape, but it does, at least, seem to be headed towards respectability.  And respectability is about all it needs to beat most teams with their annually stellar defense.  Matt Campbell is still at ISU right?  He was mentioned for literally every big job opening in the post-BCS, pre-Covid era.  My how the turn tables.  He's still a good coach, but his overachieving Cyclones won't be able to manufacture enough points in this one.  Hawkeyes pull away late.  ISU: 13--Iowa: 24

Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: Tennessee was the darling of the week in the analytics community with excitement around Nico Iamaleava, but we can take very little from these super cupcakes in week 1.  NCState, on the other hand, played Western Carolina quite close before getting the victory.  That is a rather disturbing omen.  The Vols should be able to take care of business here to provide a 2nd decent nonconference win (over the ACC).  Don't expect UT to run the table in the SEC but the ACC's showing has been less than stellar thus far.  Vols move to 2-0.  UT: 34--NCSU: 20
Hoying: This week's only other ranked matchup takes us to another stupid neutral site game to see Tennessee take on...the NC State Wolfpack? I guess when you have to rank 25 teams you really start to reach to fill in the last five or so. The Wolfpack looked wholly unremarkable struggling to put away Western Carolina last week while Tennessee was busy whomping on Chattanooga. Much is being made of Tennessee's QB Nico Iamaleava, who despite leading the Vols to a Citrus Bowl blowout win over Iowa last year, is still technically a freshman as he ended up redshirting for the 2023 season. But you have to wonder about the potential of a guy who didn't start because he was backing up Joe Milton of all people. Yes, I've seen Joe air it out in the NFL preseason, and no, I'm not impressed, any more so than when he was dragging Michigan's 2020 season into the bowels of futility. At any rate, I don't see a reason why NC State should be able to hang with Tennessee, so I'm going with the Vols for now. UT: 31--NCSU: 21

Schweinfurth: I'm not really sure about this game. It sounds like Tennessee has a decent QB. I honestly know nothing about the Wolfpack this year. The ACC has looked like hot garbage so far and I'll pick the trend here. UT: 35--NCSU: 17

Seeberg:  Wait, this is a neutral site game?  Between two teams who literally don't have anything in common or any beef or much-if-any national gravitas?  We've officially beaten a dead horse into the ground with these early season neutral site contests.  I didn't even know the LSU/USC game was in Vegas until I turned it on.  In any event, welcome to the only other ranked matchup of the week.  The Vols smoked their I-AA warmup squad while NC State...won at least?  Somnambulists through three quarters before finally shaking off the cobwebs to win.  Charlotte crowd might help, but the Vols travel so even that may be a wash.  Second-tier ACC teams generally don't beat second-tier SEC teams and I'm betting that trend will continue.  UT: 38--NCSU: 20

Western Michigan Broncos @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: What to take from week 1? I was a little iffy on Howard's performance out of the gate, but a step back showed a solid (though not excellent) performance--outside of the goofy throw back garbage.  Honestly, Howard managed the game well, ran well, threw...ok, and didn't turn it over.  Jeremiah Smith is 'HIM' and will continue to put up ungodly numbers, but I hope to get Egbuka a little more involved this week.  The O-line needs to open up some more lanes in the run game (please come back Donovan Jackson), but they pass protected fine.  The Broncos are a slight step up in the competition department, but this shouldn't be close.  Expect another powerhouse performance by the Bullets.  Jack Sawyer gets home for 2 sacks this week, Smith catches another, Howard rushes for at least one TD and Egbuka goes over 100.  Show up, dominate, prep for next week. WMU: 13-OSU:48

Hoying: I suppose last week calls for a sigh of relief. Will Howard does not appear to be a bust, although a season-opening dismantling of Akron doesn't really give a good indication of the trajectory of a season (*cough cough, 2011*) or a quarterback (*cough cough Joe Bauserman wheeeeze*). But there was still a lot to love about last week's performance. The defense was solid start to finish other than a few missed tackles, both running backs (and James Peoples!) were reasonably effective, and Jeremiah Smith appears to be as good as advertised. Also, the departure of Parker Fleming was felt in the best way (see Ferentz, Brian above). As for the Buckeyes' cupcake de la semaine, the Broncos put a scare into Wisconsin last week after forcing a three-and-out with a fourth quarter lead, but a turnover on a muffed punt put the Badgers back in control to close out the game. I imagine this has more to do with Wisconsin's continued struggle to find an identity under Luke Fickell than any particular danger presented by WMU. It would be nice to see a bit of a faster start from the Buckeyes this week as we saw more than our share of the slow variety last week and last season, but we should be fine either way. The four-week preseason rolls on. WMU: 10--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Watch out everyone. We could actually see a QB get vaporized into red mist if teams decide not to block Jack Sawyer. That was one of the most dominant defensive performances by a Buckeye D-lineman since Chase Young was blowing by opposing linemen. Will Howard looked like the QB Ohio State needed. Not doing too much and distributing to his talented weapons. I would like to see the Buckeye offense have success running off tackle a little more, but there is time to build. Isn't it nice we get to wait all day to watch a demolition? Yea, this should be a nooner. Whatever. WMU: 6--OSU: 49

Seeberg:  Guys, guys!  WE ACTUALLY HAD REAL PUNT RETURN YARDAGE LAST WEEK!  Amazing what lifting dead weight from a coaching staff will do.  In comes MACtion opponent number two in Western Michigan, who acquitted themselves well against Wisconsin, leading briefly in the fourth quarter before the Badgers finally took command.  Jeremiah Smith is, well, he's real, and real good.  Carnell Tate as a third option is pretty frightening, if the O-line can get healthy.  Jackson may sit again as there shouldn't be any real need for him until October (although getting reps as a full unit would be nice to see as well).  Two defensive touchdowns were the highlight of the day, helping out an offense that will need September to, hopefully, find a rhythm.  Not sure we can rely on 14 points from the D each week, but the 5 sacks were also nice to see, and Jack Sawyer will be in that Akron QB's nightmares.  Make some corrections, stay healthy, and how about a special teams TD this week?  Go Bucks.  WMU: 7--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Boise State over Oregon
Hoying: Illinois over Kansas
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Utah
Seeberg:  Arkansas over Oklahoma State

Week 1: Kicking the Tires

Welcome back to college football (if you didn't tune in to see the Noles get blarneyed by Georgia Tech last week). No tiptoeing out of the gate this year, as you can find a ranked matchup just about any time you tune in, even on the Lord's Day, with a nice mid-afternoon break on Saturday to enjoy dress rehearsal #1 for our beloved Buckeyes in this much anticipated season.

Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The Dawgs enter 2024 as everyone's "clear cut" number one team. The numbers have them lapping the field (although I'd argue the Buckeyes are nipping at their heels).  Their ace in the hole is Carson Beck leading the charge at QB.  Regarding Beck, I'm not 100% sold.  While he MAY be the best QB this year talent-wise, I don't think we've seen evidence on the field to prove that...yet.  There's no doubt that he is surrounded by a ton of talent and Smart will have the defense at a high level like normal.  Clemson has certainly fallen from the "elite" tier over the last few years, but they're still pretty darn good.  Cade Klubnik was a bit underwhelming last year, but should see some upgrades this year.  The biggest problem for the Tigers is they simply don't match up well across the board with the UGA and OSUs of the world.  They'll be hype around this game since these coaches both boast 2 national championships (AFLAC trivia question anyone?), but the talent gap is far too large to lean on an upset.  As we know, the Dawgs will be moving fast in the Benz.  Clem: 13--UGA: 31
Hoying: The death machine rolls on in Athens. Lest we forget, this was the consensus #1 team all last year until they faceplanted in the SEC Championship against the only coach that seems to be able to beat Kirby in the post-COVID era. And I don't see Old Nick prowling the sidelines at Clemson (or even in Tuscaloosa anymore). You can put together the finest non-cheating roster in America and that'll still only get you within 1 point of this decade's new SEC dynasty. Nobody else comes close. And that includes little ol' Clemson, who hasn't looked quite right since Justin Fields's finest hour in the Superdome back on New Year's 2021. What program used to churn out Heisman-caliber Alabama-threatening QB's like no other has stumbled since DJU turned into a pumpkin (look no further than last week for continued proof of that) and nobody has stepped up to restore the Clemson O to its former glory. I'm not sure they can turn this around under Dabo. The most surprising college football success story of the 2010s may be heading back into hibernation for another 40 years. They won't be missed. Clem: 13--UGA: 28

Schweinfurth: Has Dabo done anything in the last few years to show he runs a program able to compete? The guy shirks at NIL and the transfer portal. Fine, to each his own. But cherry picking the best transfers every year to complement the current roster is the way to win in the 2020s. UGA knows it, Ohio State knows it. Clemson doesn’t get it. There is a clear talent gap and the Tigers are on the wrong side of it. Dabo’s still a clown. Clem: 13—UGA: 38

Seeberg:  College football is, mercifully, back!  At least we can count on that every year, unlike the Longhorns.  In any event, this is a banger of an opening week game.  Wait, sorry, just now hearing it's 2024 and not 2018.  I am beginning to get the distinct sense that we will be able to look at Clemson in 20 years' time and find out Fields and Co. may have broken that program like Krenzel and Co. broke the U.  Of course, Dabo's pathetic inability to accept change is having a large say in that as well.  How many Brinks trucks would the Tigers send to Saban's address right about now?  Regardless, they just don't have the horses to compete for four quarters with the Bulldogs.  UGA pulls away in the second half.  Clem: 16--UGA: 34

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Honestly, this should be the most interesting game of the week.  Both teams enter with title aspirations, but there are questions EVERYWHERE.  Can Riley Leonard pick up the mantle in South Bend? Can the Aggies finally break though without Jimbo hamstringing them? I don't really think either of these teams is up to the task this year, but this may be do or die already for Notre Dame with a relatively soft schedule and no conference championship game.  A&M will have the SEC to plow through but this would be a nice feather in the cap for later resume arguments.  In the end, I tend to think that the 12th man will be a little too much for Irish.  If Connor Wegman can be serviceable, the Aggies will get a statement win for the SEC in week 1.  One final thought: the Aggies new defensive minded head coach comes from Duke....the same place the new Irish QB comes from. Uh oh... ND: 20--TAMU: 24
Hoying: This game's too funny not to pick. One of these gets to come out of this one screaming, "It's finally our year!" while the other sucks down the copium that the shiny new 12-team Playoff will be their salvation after a disappointing start. And that's sad in a way: this game won't be nearly as devastating to the loser as it would have been even a year ago. Somehow A&M is favored in this game, which is surprising given that the Aggies have done a boatload of nothing since Johnny Football was freshman year Johnny Football, other than famously beat Alabama in 2021 (which accomplished nothing) and almost beat them a bunch of times since. Heck, even in the COVID year, when A&M went 9-1, they lost to the only good team they played (Alabama again) by 28 points (can you imagine). Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been achingly on the edge of greatness ever since Brian Kelly took over. In 2022 it was clear that they were a QB away from being a serious competitor. Then they picked up Sam Hartman, which was almost good enough to score more than 17 points against Ohio State at home. And then, after getting sliced and diced by Duke until Hartman's last minute scrambling heroics, they decided to steal Duke's QB, Riley Leonard instead. And he sucks! Regardless, and notwithstanding Kyle Field, the 12th Man, the Impossible Drill, Dude Perfect, etc., the Irish are the better team and should come out on top. ND: 24--TAMU: 20

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I don’t believe in until they actually win a big game. TAMU has been a mess the last few years and it may take a while to dig out. Notre Dame at least seems to be building something. The Domers should win this. ND: 28—TAMU: 20

Seeberg:  Are either of these teams...good?  Signs point to maybe.  Both are in the top 20.  We know that Coach Freeman has struggled in big early season games, but playing the Buckeyes may be a bit of a high bar.  The Aggies are certainly a step down from that.  I don't see a ton of offense in this one, so the 12th man will be largely silenced.  ND overpowers the Aggies.  ND: 20--TAMU: 13

Southern California Trojans vs. Louisiana State Tigers (Sunday night)

Draper: This game has the potential to be really fun because neither team really knows what a "defense" is.  I suppose the question is how good the LSU backup QB is.  Lincoln Riley will certainly have playmakers flying around the field and a brilliant scheme, but the trenches should be dominated by the Boys from the Bayou.  The loss of Alex Grinch will be a thing of the past, but one doesn't resurrect a defense in a heartbeat.  I think the main winner in this game will be those betting the over, but the Tigahs should be able to parlay the Vegas crowd into a big early season win.  USC: 30--LSU: 34
Hoying: OK, USC, welcome to the Big Ten. I'm ready to be disappointed. This is USC's first big-time early season SEC game since they got absolutely waxed by Alabama back in 2016 (which still didn't prevent them from ending up ranked #3 for some reason). This year's opponent isn't quite as daunting but this isn't 2016-17 era USC, either. The last time the Trojans were relevant they were graciously getting destroyed by Utah to open the door to CJ Stroud's last gasp at Buckeye immortality. Last season was just a series of comical farces in which Caleb Williams recorded inhuman feats while the defense refused to give the bare minimum to help him out. LSU wasn't exactly a steel trap on defense last year either, giving up north of 40 in each of their losses and above 30 in another five of their wins, but USC had offensive defense down to an art, giving up at least 34 points in each of their last nine (!) regular season games. Thankfully for the Trojans, the Grinch Who Stole Paychecks is no longer prowling their sidelines, but unless Jeff Hafley magically appears as his replacement, you aren't going to wash that stink off in just one season. LSU had the nation's top scoring offense last year and, while they may take a step back after losing their own Heisman winner, USC is about to find out that the SEC still just means more (points). USC: 27--LSU: 38

Schweinfurth: Has USC found a defense yet? Did they find a Heisman type QB? Yea, I didn’t think so. LSU isn’t great, but they will be able to ball somewhat easily. I don’t think LSU is any type of contender here, but they are better than the Trojans. USC: 28—LSU: 42

Seeberg:  Bit of a rebuild for both of these squads as both lost Heisman-winning QBs.  USC, however, didn't really have much of a defense to lose to begin with.  Quite frankly I'm astonished they're even ranked in the preseason.  Lincoln will probably get the offense to function without Caleb Williams, but traveling to LSU in week 1 is bound to be a rude awakening for any team, regardless of talent or coaching.  Say what you want about Brian Kelly but he's essentially Bo Pelini 2.0:  Good for 10 wins a year.  Yay upgrades!  USC: 20--LSU: 31

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This is going to be one of those games in which Buckeye nation will just find something stupid to gripe about (I know I know...that's NEVER happened before).  Of all the games this weekend, this is probably the worst of them all.  A 50.5 point spread is laughable, but it is what it is.  This year is all about making statements for this team.  These seniors came back to beat TTUN, win the B1G, win the Natty, and chew gum....and they're all out of gum.  While this game won't be close and the result will never be in doubt, an early interception, long pass given up on defense, missed FG, etc. will be magnified to epic proportions about why Day isn't the guy for the job.  Stop it.  Day has all he needs and we'll know on Nov. 30th at 3:30 PM if he can drive the ferrari, but for now, sit back and enjoy the ride.  My pick for the surprising star of the afternoon will be true freshman Jeremiah Smith.  I expect him to exceed the ridiculously high standards placed on him.  Howard throws for 3 (2 to Smith) and runs in another (much to the joy of Buckeye nation) while Judkins and Henderson each account for another on the ground.  The defense will be out for a statement so I'm calling for the shutout.  Akr: 0--OSU: 58 
Hoying: I'm trying to remember the last time this much hype surrounded the #2 team in the country. Yeah, there was Ohio State in 2020 and 2022, and Alabama/Clemson during their fierce mid-2010's rivalry. But the general consensus nationwide this season seems to be that the #2 Buckeyes, not #1 Georgia, have the best team in football on paper. The same consensus, however, points to Georgia winning the title due to the question marks over the heads of the Buckeyes' offensive line and the man standing behind them. The line should be...better...this year, but I feel like we've been saying this for three years straight at this point and we have precious little to show for it. If the line could have held out for a few fractions of a second more on one crucial play last year, the national championship wouldn't have needed to be asterisked and eventually rescinded. Of course, the Buckeyes were put in that position thanks to an atrocious early interception, the likes of which you would not expect to see from Stroud, or Fields, or Haskins, or even JT Barrett (that 2017 Iowa game, though). And I think that's all that we really need Will Howard to be. JT Barrett-level. He doesn't need to have a flawless deep ball, although it would be wonderful to be able to take advantage of the separation this year's WR corps is sure to create. Speaking of WRs, did I mention that Ryan Day is starting his first ever day one true freshman at offense this Saturday? That's right, Jeremiah Smith is about to do something that Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison, Jr., never did: start on day one. This man may low-key be the Big Ten MVP by the time the season is done. As for the line, at least there's some consistency in personnel. Urban Meyer took a hit-or-miss 2012 O-line that anchored an inconsistent offense, and turned them into a nigh-unstoppable juggernaut in 2013. Just add Taylor Decker. And the addition of Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin at center should be a huge boost to the big uglies up front, snapping yips in the Rose Bowl aside. I think I may be more confident in the line this year than in the QB, but that could just be the lingering McCord hangover and the known mediocrity of KSU Wildcat Will Howard. It could be that he just needs a better scheme to thrive in, but don't expect the second coming of Justin Fields. At any rate, with an opponent like Akron, we won't learn anything this weekend, unless something is really, really wrong. Bucks by a million, and fifteen more to go. OSU: 52--Akr: 7

Schweinfurth: No bones about it, this should and will be a blowout. The only questions here is what does the usage look like for Judkins and Henderson. What does the WR rotation look like? Can the defense pitch a shutout? Can Ryan Day pull his starters before the end of the third quarter? I’m optimistic about this team, but Ohio State’s best teams don’t win anything. I truly hope this year bucks the trend. Kick back and enjoy this weekend. Football is back. OSU: 52--Akron: 3

Seeberg:  A remarkable offseason in so many respects is FINALLY over.  The Buckeyes take the field against an in-state opponent which has been a sure victory for over a century.  Other than staying healthy I'm hoping to see two things:  A consistent-if-not-yet-explosive offense and a dominant defense.  There are at least five players on this side of the ball who would have been drafted if they had chosen to leave (Burke, JTT, Sawyer, Hamilton, Williams) and at least two more would have been drafted if they had been in college long enough (Downs, Styles).  The 50-point spread has dropped to 48.5, likely a sign that smart money realizes the offense will need time to gel with a new QB, no Marv and an O-line that, while good, is thin, especially at tackle.  Get out early, get comfortable, get LOTS of experience for new RBs and OL that they'll need inevitably for this long season.  I'll be in the Shoe by 3 to watch TBDBITL kick off another season.  Let's Go Bucks!  OSU: 45--Akr: 3

Upset Special
Draper: South Dakota State over Oklahoma State (I wanted WVU)
Hoying: New Mexico over Arizona
Schweinfurth: WVU over Penn State
Seeberg:  Fresno State over TCUN

J.K., Hall, Day

 

Roy Hall.  It’s not a name that means much unless you’re a Buckeye fan of a certain age (33-45, give or take).  He had a reasonable career at Ohio State:  52 catches, 580 yards, 3 TDs.  He even turned himself into a 5^th round draft pick, though he only managed just 1 career NFL catch.  For those who need their memory refreshed, Hall was a senior on the 2006 Buckeye squad that dismantled everyone they played until they squeaked by a #2 TTUN team and then got smoked by future Buckeye coach Urban Meyer in the BCS title game.

That season’s game against the team up north was eye-opening for many reasons, but the main one is as follows:  Roy Hall had 3 catches, including a touchdown, on the game’s opening drive.  Jim Tressel, who is famous for repeating endlessly that the punt is the most important play in football, came out in a five-WR set.  On the very first play.  The vaunted maize and blue looked more confused than the defense in Remember the Titans when the high school team in the state title game went shotgun.  FIVE wideouts?  Did Tressel consult with Mike Leach when nobody was looking?  Was that even legal in the Big however-many in 2006?

Turns out it was legal, and it worked.  Troy Smith was a runaway Heisman winner that year, so of course the Buckeyes threw the ball all over the lot, in spite of Tress’s typical wishes.  He played to the strength of his team.  Good coaches create unique systems that work with the right players.  Great coaches adapt their systems to the strengths of their players.  Five nattys between the Penguins and Buckeyes make Tress a great coach by any measure.

Enter Ryan Day.  Much has been made of his willingness this year (a couple of seasons late according to many) to scale back his responsibilities.  Do less, delegate more, and hopefully the results will come.  In the meantime, however, it can be pretty easily argued that Day meets the above definition of a good coach, but not a great one.

All Buckeye fans have seen the picture on the bench of the 5 WRs:  Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, Marv and Julian Fleming.  By my count, that’s four first round picks and a 5-star who, when not injured, has been highly productive as well.  Emeka Egubka isn’t even pictured which is absolutely insane.  Can anyone guess how many plays all five ran together in a Buckeye uniform?  If you set the over/under at .5, you’d have to take the under, which is as sad as it is true.  Ryan Day could have trotted out freshman Marvin Harrison Jr. as the fifth wide receiver.  No defensive backfield in the history of college football is deep enough to cover him one on one.  Due to the absurdly tight WR rotation, he had three catches all season then three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl when Wilson and Olave opted out.  Marv was great, he was ready, but no 5-WR sets existed in Day’s offense, choosing instead to split out RBs and TEs.  Truly mind-boggling.

However, this wasn’t always the case.  Look no further than the only rivalry game Day has won so far.  In 2019, he inherited Urban’s team that, while utilizing the spread, used it primarily to run first, pass second.  That sharply contradicts Day’s philosophy, but that didn’t matter in Ann Arbor when J.K. Dobbins went berserk to the tune of 211 yards and four touchdowns on 31- yes you read that right- 31 carries.  That’s great coaching, adapting your system to the strengths of your roster. 

Last season, Day had two elite WRs (with one struggling to stay healthy) and what can only be described as a significant dropoff at quarterback.  However, in only one game did a running back run for over 150 yards (Treveyon, 162 against Wisconsin), and in no games did a running back even reach 25 carries.  The winner of the rushing battle against TCUN has won every single game this century.  You know who won the last three contests, sadly.

The expectations are sky high this year, as they should be.  The defense is elite, the offense has skill, and Day, in theory, is more hands-off.  This year’s roster has two J.K.-level running backs, and you can bet, if they’re healthy, they can be ridden to a phenomenal season- if Day allows it.  Chip Kelly has been historically willing to run the ball and their relationship is strong.   Given good health (fingers and toes crossed), and the introduction of helmet comms, there’s nothing to get in the way of the 2024 Buckeyes… except Ryan Day.

New Year's Six - Dawn of the Power Two

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 52-16 (1-11 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-8 upset)

3.) Hoying 46-22 (2-10 upset)

The premier half-dozen bowls are upon us once again, and it feels like the end of an era in two different ways. For one, the four-team Playoff closes its decade-long run (1/10, too much Michigan). But also, once Florida State is able to secede from the ACC and join forces with the Big Ten (or Nineteen or whatever), each of these bowls will have featured a showdown between a Big Ten and SEC team, present or future. Except you, Oregon, you get to babysit this year's token chump. The future is now. The fight for America's flag-bearing college football conference has begun.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30

Peach Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Of all the non-playoff NY6 games, this is the most difficult to pick....and also the game I care about the least.  Picking the 'better team' is a tough proposition in these types of games as 'who wants to play' is arguably more important.  I THINK a full strength Penn State is better than a full strength Ole Miss, but no Chop Robinson and potentially missing Fashanu and King make this interesting. It will come down to Drew discovering if Drew Allar can do anything.  Lucky for him, Kiffin isn't know for stellar defense.  Even though Manny Diaz has moved on to the shinier pastures of Duke, I think the defense travels and does enough to stifle Jaxson Dart and keep the B1G rolling. Miss: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: Lane Kiffin finally did it. For the second time in his career, he beat a Power 5 team that finished with 9 wins or more that season. This time, it was a "cover your eyes, Chris Spielman" shootout against Jayden Heisman and the all gas no brakes LSU Tigers. But that didn't really translate into wins against the big fish on the SEC schedule this year, Alabama (at least it was close) and Georgia (not so much). Yes, we all know that Franklin has similar levels of success at Penn State, racking up a total of zero wins against the Big Two these last three years, but the man does show up for bowl games. Half the time at least. Drew Allar wasn't the wunderkind that was predicted by those so desperate to find a reason not to crown Ohio State or Michigan again this season, and Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton weren't quite Blake Corum and TreVeyon Henderson. But the defense was still a problem even for Harbaugh and Day, and Ole Miss has faceplanted this season when it gets away from its preferred track meet pace. Losing Manny Diaz will hurt but the pieces are still in place for Lions to get one over on the SEC. Miss: 20--PSU: 21

Schweinfurth: Penn State feels like a throw in here. Allar can’t (or won’t) throw the ball more than ten yards downfield. The PSU defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but I think there is just too much fire power in the Rebels' stable. Ole Miss: 28—PSU: 20

Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup here of highly contrasting styles, pretty similar talent, and coaches who consistently underachieve in the big ones.  A very realistic scenario exists where UM is the only B1G team to lose their bowl game.  It happened one other time, by the way, in 2017.  I haven't watched enough Ole Miss to know if Kiffin coaches badly in those games or not, but Franklin sure as hell lays egg after egg, all the while with that bemused look on his face like he's the most devout predestination believer on the planet and nothing he could do could possibly affect the outcome.  In short, I trust neither coach much, but I trust Kiffin more.  Rebels late.  Miss: 27--PSU: 23

Orange Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida State Seminoles

Draper: There was a slight chance the Noles, after being stupidly snubbed, would play the eff it card and come out ready to prove the world wrong.  However, they chose the other option of completely bailing on this game.  Every player of note is gone and an 18 year old kid, who struggled mightily against Louisville, gets to face Kirby Smart and the Dawgs without ANY key skill players.  There's no Jared Verse on the back end to pressure Carson Beck so this could get ugly quick.  Honestly, if FSU pulls this off with absolutely NO ONE left, give Norvell Coach of the Year and the Noles should hang a banner and go completely Stone Cold on the committee...but I can't see a path.  UGA: 38--FSU: 10
Hoying: When the New Year's Six lineups were announced, I thought the Fiesta Bowl was an easy pick for biggest laugher among what should otherwise be a pretty competitive series of games. I was wrong. Florida State took one look at the 2017 UCF script for claiming a piece of a national title over a 1-loss Playoff champion and said "nah, we're good." Obviously their star starting QB, Jordan Travis, is out of pocket for this game, but so is his backup. And his backup's backup's backup (not QB3, though, thank heavens). And the top 3 running backs. And the top 2 wide receivers. Look, back when the wheels were starting to fall off of the 90's juggernaut Noles, they had to play in a BCS bowl without their top two QBs. And they actually led for a hot second before Fabian Walker threw a pick-six and FSU decided to go with Anquan Boldin, yes, that Anquan Boldin, as QB going forward. That was against, uh, Georgia. This time, I wouldn't be surprised if FSU doesn't score a point on offense, and with a handful of defensive starters out as well, any non-Sickos might just want to skip this one. UGA: 24--FSU: 0

Schweinfurth: I'm not sure which team wants to be in this game less. Georgia was on top of the world and came crashing down to Bama. Florida State got screwed by the committee, is playing their 3^rd (4^th?) string QB and the entire team bailed. That FSU defense was nasty with everyone playing, but now the whole team is a giant middle finger to the committee. This is a laugher that everyone turns off after the first score. UGA: 38—FSU: 7
Seeberg:  We all know the Seminoles are out over half their starters for this one.  To be fair, UGA was the likely pick even before FSU began its war of attrition against itself.  I feel bad for Chief, even he couldn't muster the courage for a close scoreline, much less a colossal upset.  Neither can I.  Dawgs roll.  UGA: 31--FSU: 3

MONDAY, JANUARY 1

Fiesta Bowl: Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: This is the greatest season in the history of Liberty since Cornwallis surrendered in 1781 at Yorktown.  Group of 5 teams traditionally do very well in these big games in recent years due to the 'this is a major accomplishment for us' vs. 'what a failure missing the playoffs'.  Oregon was a game from the playoffs so the consolation, quite frankly, sucks. Liberty may be undefeated, but their best win is....Western Kentucky? Bowling Green? wooof. Boise State over Arizona, Houston over FSU, UCF over Auburn, Tulane over Ole Miss; but this Liberty team doesn't have a Jay Ajayi, Ed Oliver, or Tajae Spears on the roster.  No need to overthink this.  There may be opt-out for the Ducks, but I just don't care.  Liberty-Bibberty: 13--Oregon: 38

Hoying: Don't let the laugher above distract you from the fact that this has no business being a New Year's Six matchup. Sentimental sympathetic squishes, still heartbroken over Boise State not getting a shot at the BCS title in 2006 and 2009, and UCF not getting their shot at the Playoff in 2017, have ensured that at least one team from the Group of 5 will be shoved into the new 12-team abomination from next season forward. This decision will make even less sense after the Big Ten and SEC finish vacuuming up every remaining team of value nationwide and the remaining former power conferences desperately backfill with whatever teams can manage to complete a forward pass. And it all starts this season, as the Playoff Committee had to find somebody from the Group of 5 to match the dozen minus one deserving teams otherwise in the field, and they settled on...Liberty. An undefeated team that played literally the weakest schedule in all of Division I-A, including zero Power 5 teams. At least they won a championship of the weakest conference, Conference USA, that looked at this time last year like it wouldn't survive the last round of realignment. Oh, they can run the ball, racking up more yards on the ground than even the service academies. And yes, Oregon did have some trouble containing Washington's Dillon Johnson in both of the Ducks' losses this year. But this isn't last year's Tulane that caught USC napping. That Tulane navigated an AAC that still had a Fickell-coached Cincinnati in it, and scored a win over Kansas State out of conference. This game is a travesty, something befitting the first round of the NCAA tournament with a 2 seed Oregon pitted against a 15 seed Liberty. Enjoy seeing this in the Playoff next year, at least before the Big Ten and SEC scrap it and come up with something better. Lib: 17--Ore: 38

Schweinfurth: This one shouldn’t be close, honestly. The committee had to throw a G6 team in and Liberty got tapped. Oregon was very good all year, they just couldn’t beat the Huskies. BoNix goes out with another win and poor Liberty gets smacked.  Liberty: 14—Ore: 42
Seeberg: So, is Oregon playing Washington?  No.  Well then, pretty easy pick here!  Let's be honest, letting a group of 5 squad into the NY6 each year is well-intentioned, and occasionally deserved.  Some years, however, that team is better left eating the remnants of a massive Pop Tart.  This year is decidedly the latter of those two aforementioned options.  Even a sleepwalking Ducks team will roll here.  Lib: 17--Ore: 41

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Bama was ruled out of the playoffs in September after a loss to the Longhorns at home AND a lackluster win over the (non-1997) Bulls, but like Thanos, they are inevitable.  Jalen Milroe is one of the great yo-yo players of all time.  He'll bounce from 'what were you thinking' to 'I can't believe he made that play'.  Let's not forget that this team nearly (should have) lost to a bad Auburn team, but rebounded to defeat the 2 time champs.  In terms of raw talent, the Tide are leaps and bounds ahead, but the Wolverines have veteran leadership and a unity of purpose.  They know what they are as a team: control the clock, run the ball, play good defense.  The lack of wide receiver talent is a problem for the maize and blue, but the tight ends are the key.  The loss of Zinter will be a problem vs. the monsters on the Tide line.  I expect the Wolverine defense to make a few plays and turn Milroe over, but even with a good game by McCarthy, the running game won't have enough success.  It will come down to Milroe's rushing ability to make the plays needed.  Eleven warriors, Ramzy said it best: "Conference pride is a disease even when Michigan isn't involved.  This year's CFP is an SEC-B1G invitational, which turns pulling for a conference into a mild phlegmy cold.  Washington first, Texas or Alabama next, Michigan under no circumstances.  As Jason said to his grandfather Hermes in The Argonautica - f**k those guys forever." Ala: 30--UM: 20

Hoying: Folks, the Tide have done it. They've proved me wrong again and again and again all the way to the semifinals of the national championship. And their reward is to face the best Michigan team since the dawn of the BCS era. You've seen Michigan play; they're solid in every phase of the game and have been #1 in most advanced stats rankings for the bulk of the season. But, and this is a big but, how much of that can be attributed to the matter of indeterminate shadiness? Ever since the scandal broke, something has looked...off...with the Wolverine pass game. RIP another September Heisman for a Michigan QB. Now, granted, Michigan has faced the best three defenses they've seen all season during that span, but the only one McCarthy was able to find any room against was the Buckeyes, and even that hinged on a tight-window TD that could easily have been overturned as a brilliant strip by Denzel Burke. And the news doesn't get any better, as it's possible that Alabama's defense will be the best the Wolverines have faced all season. After Georgia woke up from their early season nap (and the two quarters they took off against Georgia Tech), they looked like the team to challenge Michigan for the national title until they ran into the Bama brick wall. Ole Miss, LSU, these high-powered teams were stymied by the Tide's relentless boa constrictor suffocation. For a while, this was looking like a more classic pre-Tua Nick Saban Alabama, with a world class defense and a mere competent QB. Then Jalen Milroe finally arrived and arguably outplayed the Heisman winner down the stretch, providing a deadly dual-threat attack that has historically been the bane of any Harbaugh coached Michigan team. Marvin Harrison was a problem for the UM D, and Jermaine Burton is going to further their nightmares in this one. For the third straight year, Michigan flames out early in the Playoff, and the dark ages come again this offseason to Ann Arbor. Ala: 27--UM: 20

Schweinfurth: JJ McCarthy has one passing TD in his last 6 games…I wonder what changed? Honestly, I feel like Michigan is here because Ryan Day’s butt puckered again. But that’s a different discussion. Bama’s defense is the real deal and UM had trouble with the Bucks D. Milroe will give Harbaugh and Co nightmares with his mobility. Bama wins because cheaters never prosper. Bama: 35—UM: 16
Seeberg: As I look at this game, there is an absolutely hilarious gut feeling that, if anybody had said it to you in September you would have laughed them out of the room:  I trust Bama's QB more than UM's.  Whether it's the lack of advanced knowledge or facing better defenses or a combination thereof, it's clear that the maize and blue staff have minimal-to-no faith in their signal caller.  And Bama will absolutely eat your lunch if you're a one-dimensional offense.  I do think it will be a largely competitive game, but I just don't see a scenario where Milroe is completely held in check, and I just don't see a scenario where UM can get to 25 points barring a defensive score.  Hope Harbaugh enjoys his last view of the Pasadena sunset as his alma mater's head coach before he lives in socal permanently as coach of the Chargers.  Ala: 27--UM: 19

Sugar Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies

Draper: This is an extremely tough game to pick.  Washington seemed to continue to win close games, but they do keep winning.  It seems that the Huskies are stumbling through the latter half of the schedule, but it was a murderer's row: Oregon, USC (yeah, they are talented), Oregon State, Arizona, Wazzu (kinda), and Oregon again....yet they kept winning.  Texas has also limped through the season after losing to OU, but they kept winning, albeit against lesser competition.  I think this comes down to Ewers/Mitchell vs. Penix/Odunze.  I believe the best player on either team is Rome Odunze in purple and gold and he'll make the play (or 2, or 3) under the veteran leadership of Penix (who has had time to heal up).  I don't think Ewers is up to the biggest stage yet.  If UW can turn the Horns over a bit, I think the Pac12 gets their first (and likely last) playoff victory. This is a heart pick, but I stand by it.  UT: 30--UW: 34
Hoying: Washington Huskies 52, USC Trojans 42, November 4, 2023. That was the only time in the Washington's last 9 games that they managed to score a double-digit victory over an opponent. Granted, there were two wins over Oregon included as part of that seemingly unimpressive winning streak. But, as I said in my Pac-12 Championship Game preview, there's a good chance that nobody in the Pac-12 is very good this year. All of the seemingly marquee out-of-conference wins have crumbled into dust. Washington blowing out Michigan State in East Lansing helped put them on the map this season, but now we know what that's worth. Texas has taken off a few games as well (TCU? Houston??) to go with their actual loss to Oklahoma, but the overall resume stands strong, especially the only win by one Playoff team over another this season. Washington has been living on borrowed time for too long. They proved the haters (guilty) wrong against Oregon, but for the first time since the days of Colt McCoy, Texas. Is. Back. UT: 34--UW: 27

Schweinfurth: There is always one game in the playoff that is a decent watch. This one should be it. Between a healthy Quinn Ewers and Michal Penix, I expect lots of points. Washington has shown they are the more tested and complete team to this point. Huskies move on. UT: 35—Wash: 42
Seeberg: I expect this one to be the more entertaining and well-played semifinal.  Texas is back(ish) and in the playoff against, quite frankly, the guy who I thought should have won the Heisman, former Indiana QB Michael Penix (still funny to say that.  He was the HOOSIERS QUARTERBACK HOLY HELL).  The Huskies, to put it plainly, are just the offensive-minded version of the 2002 Buckeyes.  They do just enough on defense to keep it close and Penix and his legit WRs outscore the opponents.  I picked against the Huskies multiple times down the stretch, convinced the clock would proverbially strike midnight, but it never did.  I've learned my lesson.  UDub wins a classic.  UT: 34--UW: 38

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29

Cotton Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: There have been some amazing swings in the spread in this game.  Bucks open as a favorite, it gets bet the other way after the whole world assumes the Buckeyes will all opt out a la FSU.  Then, (almost) all key players commit to play for the scarlet and gray (back to OSU) before the shocking departure of McCord to Syracuse?  (????).  Regardless, the return of the Bucks and the seeming unification of the team behind Devin Brown have given me far more confidence that this is a mismatch.  Missouri has exceeded all expectations this year, but with a healthy Buckeye defense coming in with motivation (seemingly), I don't see Cody Schrader keeping his rushing prowess against a stout Silver Bullet defense.  I'm not sure Brown is the answer and McCord was very good this year (certainly no Stroud, but also not a Bauserman).  It's looking like Marv may have already played his last game (please no....), but the talent on the Buckeye offense and defense far exceeds that of the Tigers.  Mizzou just doesn't have the horses.  Bucks tie a bow on the end of another season that just didn't hit the expectations.  Tough when you need a title every year, but falling just short once again leaves a sour taste. (Sounds like JTT and Marv should come back for another shot....right?....RIGHT?!?!?! Mizzou: 17--OSU: 30
Hoying: Missouri has been a nice story this season, and I haven't gotten to see as much of it as I would have liked. I've caught the big moments like nailing a 61 yard field goal to sink Kansas State or putting in a scare between the hedges against Georgia. But they haven't really moved the needle on a week-to-week basis, to the point where one could be forgiven for not realizing that Brady Cook was quietly putting together one of the best seasons by any QB this year, or that Cody Schrader had followed up a tepid first half of the season on the ground by blasting through his last few games like a man on fire. The Tigers aren't quite as deep at the non-skill positions to make this a "talent-equated game", as our head coach likes to say, but there's no getting over the glaring question mark behind center on the other side of the field. Kyle McCord was unfairly judged this year and, like Brady Cook, truly was one of the top QBs in the country. But Devin Brown, as much as the team really seems to love him and rally around him, hasn't impressed during the few chances he's had to shine this season. The mobility we were promised hasn't really made an appearance outside of a couple of goal line packages against Purdue, and his passing has been wildly inconsistent. It won't help matters that Julian Fleming has left for greener pastures, and it doesn't look like Marv will suit up either. But the good news is that pretty much the entire rest of the team will still be playing, meaning Missouri will still be facing one of the top defenses in the country and the Buckeyes should have solid line play on both sides of the ball (at least as solid as they've looked this year). That should be just enough to deliver a Buckeye victory. If it doesn't happen, don't hang your head, the Buckeyes have never won a national championship the year after a bowl victory...Mizz: 27--OSU: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know about anyone else, but I just can’t get excited for this one. Mizzou is a mid level SEC team and has played will this year. Honestly, I don’t know anything else about them. I’ve mostly paid no attention to the comings and goings of the Bucks either, other than to know McCord saw himself out and Marv is going pro. Devin Brown is fine I guess, but I think Day is going to have to lean on the run game quite a bit. The passing game may get dumbed down to (hello mesh patterns) to help Brown read the defense better. The Bucks should win this, but the upheaval may be a distraction. It’s close, but the Bucks go out on a winning note. Mizzou: 17—OSU: 24
Seeberg:  CAN SOMEONE JUST SAY IF THEY ARE OR AREN'T COMING BACK??!?!??!?  As Gene Wilder expertly put it "the suspense is terrible...I hope it'll last."  Regardless, just about everyone not named Marv or McCord is playing in this one.  I think these weeks of practice have finally crystallized what went on all spring and summer with the QB battle.  McCord was likely steadier, but there were days when Brown outplayed him...and Devin seems to be almost universally more liked as a leader.  McCord's leadership was nonexistent in Ann Arbor, punctuated by dear old daddy demanding more cash and a starting spot next year before leaving for the greener pastures of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone.  Wait, what's that?  This is football???  Yikes.  Well, good luck to that dude anyway.  Back to the game at hand.  Mizzou isn't as talented but might honestly be better coached and they sport a legit DUDE at RB in Cody Schrader.  Hartline can earn his money (as if he doesn't already) by having the next wave of WRs step up for Marv and the departed (and criminally underrated) Julian Fleming.  I expect- and hope for- a healthy dose of Henderson- then again, he and Hayden are the only scholarship RBs left!  College football in 2023, ladies and gentlemen.  Assuming the WRs are as advertised, and we can escape with only minor snafus in the special teams (Parker Fleming still having a job may be the most shocking part of the offseason thus far honestly), the Bucks should end the season with a competitive, well-earned W against a member of the other power 2 conference.  Savor it, Buckeye Nation, it's just the spring game between now and August 31st.  MIZZ: 20--OSU: 26