Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 24-14 (1-8 upset)
1.) Draper 24-14 (3-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 23-15 (3-6 upset)
4.) Hoying 21-17 (1-8 upset)
We knew the 2026 Ohio State season was a murderer's row, and the Buckeyes have now taken two shots to the stomach (but they're still alive!). Four more wins achieves one of the eternal three goals and punches a ticket to Indianapolis to chase the second. But the margin of error for the third is now zero in so, so many ways.
Meanwhile, another monster weekend ensures that another smattering of top 15 teams will find themselves careening down the rankings.
Brigham Young University Cougars @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Holy War is in full force with a top 10 matchup for the second year in a row. BYU took their predictable loss at UCF after the high of beating Notre Dame, but the hate will be strong in this one. Utah has defied expectations all year and just keeps punching and emerging victorious. The question is: will Bear be able to have the type of game he had in Provo 2 weeks back? The game is in Rice Eccles, but the stakes are through the roof. A loss by BYU might be a death knell for their playoff hopes (which seems crazy). Utah could weather a loss, but it puts the season on edge. I think the Cougs get it together and pull out another Holy War victory, this time in hostile environs. BYU: 27--Utah: 24
Hoying: Welcome to the game of the Big 12 season. As in, the only top-level one, because neither of these teams has Texas Tech on the schedule. We've already seen BYU succeed on the biggest stage this season, but that was in front of an amped up LaVell Edwards Stadium crowd. The Cougs played with their hair on fire and still barely pulled out a win over Notre Dame that could easily have been a loss. Utah has played some puzzlingly close games against Houston and at Colorado but have more or less looked the part, including no faceplants against conference also-rans like UCF. The Utes have one of the most devastating attacks in the country, balanced between air and ground, and the Cougars have only been...OK on the other side of the ball. Snoop Huntley may not know how to beat the Bengals, but he knows how this one is going to turn out. BYU: 20--Utah: 27
Schweinfurth: I’ve been hating on both of these teams, so it hurts that I actually have to pick one. I am still not sure either of teams is actually good, but I do feel that BYU is better. I’ll go with my gut. BYU: 31—Utah: 20
Seeberg: Still not sold on either of these teams. Such is the NIL world, everyone is noticeably flawed. Utah played a one-possession game at home against the only team of consequence(?) they have played all year in Houston. Rivalry games produce chaos. I don’t think the Utes handle chaos particularly well. Bear and Cougs make the Big 12 a 2-team conference. BYU: 24—Utah: 20
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State University Tigers
Draper: Death Valley is prepared for another huge matchup...but both teams have 2 losses. The Lane Train has been the flavor of the year despite the actual on-field product and Bama is getting the 2010s Saban treatment because...reasons? I do believe that Bama has the better team, but it's close AND the home field is enormous. Let's not go crazy here as neither team is terrible nor unbeatable, but the repercussions of this game have huge implications (for a sane committee). A loss may not knock Bama out (super close loss vs UGA and win over UK) but LSU has nothing redeeming in their resume so far. A 3 loss Bama might make it in....a 3 loss LSU would need a miracle at this point. What would be the best outcome for the SECommittee? Close win by LSU. That's the script and I'm sticking to it. Bama: 24--LSU: 27
Hoying: There was a time when the college football world revolved around this game. We're not quite back there yet (see the Holy War above of all games taking precedence) but Lane has restored the Tigers back to Playoff contention while Alabama is at least another two or three losses away from any danger of being left out this year. LSU has had some game results this season that while looking odd at the time (blowing out Clemson and A&M? losing to Kentucky?) have in hindsight pretty much reflected exactly how good LSU's opposition was in those games. Alabama's been pretty steady except for getting run out of the building against Tennessee (take note, Buckeye fans and Committee members, that is what a nasty loss looks like). We've reached a future where LSU is more disciplined than Alabama, which feels insane to say, but I trust the Tigers more in a big game. Things won't get any easier next week with Texas coming to town, but the train's not slowing down yet. Bama: 17--LSU: 20
Schweinfurth: I have watched exactly zero SEC football this year, and my life is better for that. While I’m not sure what LSU has, I just don’t trust Bama without Saban. Prove me wrong. Bama 24—LSU: 35
Seeberg: I’m not overthinking things here. Kiffin is 1-7 against top ten teams. He’s going to find a way to squander this opportunity. Bama late. Bama: 31—LSU: 24
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: And here is a better matchup than the one above without the names. Kentucky has been living on borrowed time for weeeeeks (see also: Indiana). Will Stein's crew is finding ways for the Cardiac Cats to pull it out, but they have to travel to Neyland and a very angry Vol team after theIR questionable at best treatment in the CFP rankings. The loss to South Carolina was a head-scratcher, but the Cocks do this every year. They can hang their hats on a BLOWOUT of Bama, but apparently, no one saw that game. It feels like now that basketball season has begun, it's time for the Wildcats to turn in the cleats and move to the gym. Vol Nation makes a statement and the SEC threatens 20 teams in the top 10 this week. UK: 17--UT: 30
Hoying: And now for the teams that beat the ones above. Kentucky has been living a charmed life this season, scraping by South Carolina and LSU in overtime before using a flurry of turnovers to escape Oklahoma. Meanwhile Tennessee's horrific passing game finally caught up to them last week just in time for them to bust South Carolina out of their slump. The good news for the Vols is that Kentucky's air attack isn't any great shakes either, and the Wildcats have a much worse defense to go with it. Kentucky's luck has to run out at some point, and no better time and place than Neyland (central) this Saturday. UK: 20--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: Kentucky has been a nice story, but it should end this week. Both teams go back to SEC meh. UK: 17—UT: 28
Seeberg: Is Kentucky a football school now? Their southerly neighbors may put a stop to that. Anyone who saw the Vols shut down Bama at home knows that when they get even decent play on that side of the ball they’re tough to beat (unless they only throw for 136 yards- see last week at SC). Back at home in a rivalry game with some juice this year, however, should be a bounce back for TN and a reality check for the Wildcats. UK: 13—TN: 24
Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Well, well, well. Both teams enter their one true test of the season and the only difference is Miami was bailed out by the refs on a Hail Mary while the Irish were screwed by a no call. Regardless, the storyline starts and ends with Malachi Toney missing the game in South Bend. Mensah is a fantastic QB, but the fire is lit with the star receiver. With the injury, Miami will need to step up the run game and find production elsewhere. Notre Dame joins Tennessee and OSU on the 'huh?' list of the CFP rankings. Because of their current position and the schedule the rest of the way, this MIGHT be a playoff game in November. A loss makes a top 12 finish difficult and a win almost makes it a certainty. With the backs against the wall, the Irish will leave it all on the field. Honestly, it comes down to whether they play loose and free or tight and nervous. I think they are going to be super tight, but eventually relax and hold Mark Fletcher in check. It's going to be a tight one, but the Irish pull off the most important win of their season. Miami: 17--ND: 20
Hoying: But for potentially a missed pass interference call and an extra second on the clock, this could have been a #1 vs. #2 matchup. But as it stands, Notre Dame tumbled all the way down to #11 in the initial Playoff rankings, as losing to BYU wiped out their only chance at a quality win to date. And there aren't any better opportunities after this weekend either, not even a conference championship game to potentially bolster a thin resume. So it's win or go home for the Irish against one of their Pop-Tart inducing nemeses from last season: the Miami Hurricanes. The Canes are a little less scary now that their do-it-all Heisman impostor Malachi Toney is out for the rest of the regular season (and possibly beyond). You thought Julian Sayin was locked onto one target: Toney has 73 receptions this season to the next highest 28 from Cooper Barkate (who?). At least the running game should still work with the two-headed monster of Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher (remember him?). Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, it's Miami who struggles to stop the pass, and Irish QB CJ (not Tommy) Carr has been quite effective this season. The Irish have had some trouble defending the red zone this season, which is where the Miami offense thrives, but the loss of Toney will be too much to overcome. Notre Dame continues their campaign to take a Playoff spot from a much more deserving 3- or 4- loss SEC team, or possibly someone closer to home. Miami: 20--ND: 34
Schweinfurth: I don’t buy the theory that Malachi Toney is going to play. The dude had surgery. So, can Miami actually function without Toney? They only target him about 1,000,000 times a game. Notre Dame plays great defense and should be able to contain the Canes without their best weapon. Miami: 17—ND: 38
Seeberg: Can Marcus Freeman finally win a regular season game of consequence? Signs point to…probably? It’s at home against a clearly flawed #1 Hurricanes squad. It’s cold, it’s at night, it’s the perfect recipe, but the perfect recipe seems necessary for Freeman to win these games. The icing on the cake, however, is the absence of Malachi Toney, a shoo-in for the 2027 Biletnikoff (and would be this year if it weren’t for the alien wearing #4 in Columbus). I still think it’s close, I still think Freeman coaches tight, but I trust Carr more than Toney-less Mensah. It’s close, but perhaps the most insufferable fan base in the country gets to yap until probably the playoff semis, give or take a round. UM: 16—ND: 20
Oregon Ducks @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Buckeye Nation needs to take a moment....actually, they need to take two moments. Last Saturday sucked....it just plain sucked. They were the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. But. There are no teams who have played the gauntlet we have, just lost their Heisman finalist QB, and are still in the running. All is not lost, but the 3 most glaring issues that need to be solved from a coaching aspect are: 1) Motivation (we were sleepwalking through all 60 minutes), 2) tempo (simplify the playbook and move--even with a freshman), and 3) RUN THE FREAKING SNEAK FROM THE 1 IN LINE EVERY SINGLE TIME. The defense was atrocious, but USC has a very good offense. Oregon won't have the same firepower with Raiola under center and half the WR room in traffic court. Absolutely need to clean up that side of the ball (Matty P...earn your paycheck). On the other side, there were plenty of bright spots for Fahey. He was raw and missed some throws, but key drops by Bo and Henry with the poor weather didn't help. Arthur needs to remember that JJ is on the team either as a decoy or the best player in the country and stop the timid playcalling. Don't sling it all game, but mix it up (and for God's sake, drop the 3 TE packages). The Buckeye NEED the support of the crowd. All the haters piling on Ryan Day need to shut up and get behind this team. If they poop themselves again, you can bring the slings and arrows, but don't do it when all our goals are in front of us. Most started the year hoping and praying for no more than 2 losses. Well, we haven't passed that number yet. The ship is righted and we start November with a clean slate. Ore: 20--OSU: 31
Hoying: Okay, everyone down off the ledge. Yes, a lot of things went wrong on Saturday night. The defense completely broke down for two long plays for the first time all year, Fahey missed some open throws, the pass blocking gave him no time to operate, everything leading up to and happening during that punt from plus territory, the penalties, the penalties, the PENALTIES. But these are fixable. Down to down, play to play, the Buckeyes looked pretty good, we were just too frustrated to see it because OSU was trailing from the starting gun and was never a threat to retake the lead after that awful punt play. At times like this, we should avoid being prisoners of the moment. Last week for Ohio State looked a lot like USC two weeks ago, where everything goes wrong and you lose to an inferior opponent on the road. This week we get an Oregon team that by has every reason to be much more demoralized than we are, and while they battled valiantly to come back to beat Northwestern the alarm bells should still be ringing in Eugene. I don't think you can fix a moribund offense midseason (one-offs like the 2024 Michigan game notwithstanding) so I'm hesitant to put much stock in Dylan Raiola and the 441 yards the Ducks put up against Northwestern. We haven't seen Ohio State in true desperation mode since the start of the magical 2024 Playoff run, and while this team isn't quite as stacked as that one was, especially now at QB, the pieces are there to put a good 5-game run together to earn a favorable Playoff draw and buy some more time before the Miami's, Georgia's, and Notre Dame's of the world come calling. For now, lean on that improving run game, give Fahey time to find the open guys (I swear they were open or would have been open against USC if he had another half-second), and get the real MVP Jay Timmons back on the field to anchor a less-than-flashy bend-but-don't-break defense. We're going to be fine. For now. Ore: 13--OSU: 23
Schweinfurth: Fahey was fine last week. Full stop. Play calling and defensive execution were not. There haven’t been many games where I’ve sat back at halftime and actually believed the game was over. It’s fine. I thought this was a 10-2 football team from the start, and here we are. Oregon has struggled, and I mean really struggled at times on offense. The defense isn’t great either and teams have moved it on them. I expect a desperate, angry football team. Day tends to swing for the fences when his back is against the wall like this. Bucks win, and start to resemble themselves. Ore: 17—OSU: 38
Seeberg: The state of the 2026 football Buckeyes can be summed up thusly: our fate relies- to a terrifyingly high degree- on two true freshmen. Depth is gone. Players aren’t being developed anywhere except LB and maybe safety. Timmons is already Caleb Downs light, and this unit doesn’t have 2 top 10 LBs and a game wrecker at DT to make his life easier. Ryan Day’s losses against talent-equated teams almost read like parodies of themselves at this point: Lousy special teams, lousy red zone play calling and execution, next to no urgency when needed on offense. Rinse, lather, repeat. In comes an equally wounded Ducks squad with one major advantage: an experienced backup QB. Raiola has started one more game in the Shoe than Fahey, and he darn near pulled the upset, losing 21-17 (a game I attended actually) with a far less talented supporting cast. He’s not a threat to run, but the silver bullets have all but forgotten how to rush the passer with only 11 sacks all year. Kenyatta Jackson spends almost as much time in coverage as with his ears pinned back (still better than Calhoun in coverage though). The last inexcusable loss triggered a player-led “F this S” meeting that resulted in a natty run. Not the case here. 42-17 isn’t coming, BUT I do think Patricia can get some things corrected. Can Fahey get us to 20? Just. Will that be enough? Barely. Rebellions are built on hope. Ore: 17—OSU: 20
Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Texas Tech
Hoying: Minnesota over UCLA
Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Iowa
Seeberg: Michigan State over Michigan
