Week 10 - The Playoff Eliminator

Standings

1) Draper               27-14    (4-5 upset)

1) Seeberg              27-14    (1-8 upset)
3) Hoying               26-15    (3-6 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     24-17    (3-6 upset)

Even after a few more upsets last week, only one Power 5 team, Minnesota, made the dreaded drop from 1 to 2 losses, essentially falling out of playoff contention. Eighteen Power 5 teams are sitting on fewer than 2 losses, but this week's slate guarantees the demise of at least 2 more.

#5 Auburn Tigers @ #6 Ole Miss Rebels

Draper: Auburn has kind of become the forgotten team in the SEC West after the loss to Mississippi State.  Let's not forget they played for the Championship last year.  Nick Marshall runs Gus Malzahn's system extremely well and they are a truly solid team.  But...Ole Miss finally got Bad Bo and faceplanted against a so-so LSU team.  Granted, it was in Death Valley, but LSU is not as good as it's been in the recent past.  Now the tables turn as the Rebels get the Tigers on their home field where memories of the big Bama win still echo.  I'm sticking with the home team taking care of business.  Good Bo returns and more importantly, the landsharks defense holds Malzahn to a modest game.  Aub: 20--Ole Miss: 24
Hoying: Even though these two teams share a division (the ALMIGHTY INVINCIBLE SEC WEST), they share only one common opponent, LSU. Ole Miss puffed and sputtered all over Death Valley on the way to a puzzling 10-7 loss, while Auburn steamrolled the Tigers 41-7 at Jordan-Hare. Is there a huge gap between these teams, or is home field really a monster factor in the SEC? After all, Ole Miss upset Bama and home and obliterated every other visitor to Oxford, and Auburn's road trips led to a squeaker over Kansas State and a solid loss to Mississippi State. Auburn QB Nick Marshall has 0 INTs in 5 home games and 3 INTs in 2 road games. That's not a good weakness to expose to the nation's top defense. Tonight's forecast: a FREEZE is coming! Aub: 24--Ole Miss: 28
Schweinfurth: Ah yes, two teams from the most overrated division in college football.  Ole Miss is reeling from that loss to LSU last week and is highly ranked based on a win over Alabama (who has really beaten no one).  Auburn runs the ball, and does it well with Nick Marshall.  I'm not sure that the Land Shark D can stop that run game. I also believe that Ole Miss was exposed last week and drops another one here.  Aub: 31--Ole Miss 17
Seeberg:  This game, already huge, has suddenly become even bigger as both teams are in the top four of the inaugural playoff era poll (it will be 16 teams by 2030, mark my words).  Auburn waxed LSU at home, scoring 34 more than the Rebels managed in Death Valley.  The Ole Miss D, however, is still allowing a measly 10.5 ppg and Auburn struggled to score in its only other road game of consequence.  I believe the Tigers will be forced to throw more than they would like, and the Rebels will get back on track after that debacle INT at the end of last week's game.  Aub: 13--Ole Miss: 21

#4 TCU Horned Frogs @ #16 West Virginia Mountaineers
Draper: Don't want to be a couch in Morgantown these days.  WVU is rolling with former Nole Clint Trickett slinging the rock around like Larry Fine/Phil Collins/Dana Holgorson likes.  Kevin White has been a stud at wide receiver keeping up with the likes of Amari Cooper.  TCU, since suffering the horrible meltdown in Waco, has done nothing but destroy.  Last week's beatdown was just ridiculous with Boykin breaking records left and right.  The atmosphere will be nuts, but TCU is a sound football team that has their eyes on the prize.  Expect the Mountaineers to take an early lead and TCU just slowly take control away after momentum dies down.  TCU: 38--WVU: 27
Hoying: If not for a bizarre 24 point 4th quarter collapse at Baylor, TCU would be sitting at 7-0 and have a serious case to be #1 in the rankings. Instead they travel to the Baylor-slaying Mountaineers to face possibly the nation's hottest player, QB Clint Trickett, and the terrific West Virginia offense. Unfortunately for the home team, TCU's offense is even more formidable, averaging more than 50 points a pop and showing no signs of slowing down. Thank goodness poor Chris Spielman isn't calling this one, or he'd be retching in the studio by the end of the first quarter. TCU: A WHOLE BUNCH--WVU: STILL A LOT BUT NOT AS MUCH
Schweinfurth: What in the world is going on in the Big 12?  TCU put up 82 points last week?!? Who could have predicted that in any game.  That Horned Frog offense is something to marvel at but WVU isn't a slouch either.  Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, you have to be able to make at least ONE stop a game to win. I'm gonna take Trevon Boykin and the Frogs.  You may want to divert your eyes if you are a fan of defensive football.  This score is going to look like a video game.  TCU: 70--WVU: 63
Seeberg:  This one should be a very interesting watch.  WVU may have shaken their habit of playing down to their competition, handling Oklahoma State easily.  Maybe feeding off the confidence of the Baylor win?  TCU, meanwhile, dropped 82 points- no that's not a typo- last week, equaling their men's BASKETBALL team from a year ago who also managed just one game above 80 points.  West Virginia should use a Baylor-esque game plan to put some significant points on the board, but TCU is too good across the board to let another collapse happen to a team they need to (and should) beat.  TCU: 41--WVU: 34

#19 Utah Utes @ #14 Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: Utah loves living on the edge.  They squeak out victories vs. USC, UCLA, and Oregon State, but they defeat that Wolverine 'juggernaut' by a billion.  ASU has also lived on the edge with the Hail Mary victory over USC and the closer than the score would indicate win over Washington.  That being said, the Sun Devils return to Tempe and have looked pretty good at home (other than the UCLA debacle.  Todd Graham should go back to Berkovici in my opinions but either way, I expect a Sun Devil victory. Utah: 21--ASU: 31
Hoying: Although these two teams currently lead the Pac-12 South, the only thing that comes to mind when I think about either of them is "borrowed time." Utah has squeaked by good teams in 3 consecutive weeks after a head-scratching home loss to Washington freaking State, while Arizona State beat one LA team on a Hail Mary and got plastered by the other. At least the Sun Devils can be forgiven for breaking in a backup QB, Mike Bercovici, who has become ASU's J.T. Barrett. We'll know more after Sparky hosts the Irish next week, but Arizona State stays alive in the South hunt, barreling toward a season-ending showdown in Tucson. Utah: 13--ASU: 31
Schweinfurth: I'm really not to sure about either team, mostly because Pac 12 games are played after 10PM and I like my sleep.  Just for kicks, I'll take the home team (and higher ranked) team in ASU. Utah: 20--ASU: 35
Seeberg:  Anybody have this game circled on their schedules in the preseason?  Not likely.  The Sun Devils have looked particularly impressive since their aberrational beatdown at the hands of UCLA by winning at USC and scoring a whopping 26 points against the defensive juggernaut of Stanford.  Utah, meanwhile, went on the road and beat UCLA and just squeaked out a home win over that same USC squad.  Utah runs it a ton, but they may become even more one-dimensional as their senior star wideout Dres Anderson- who has over 2,000 yards receiving in his career- is out the rest of the year with a knee injury.  Look for Utah to try to shorten the game by keeping it on the ground, but obvious passing downs will become virtual locks for the Sun Devil D.  Gotta love those tridents on the helmets!  Utah: 17--ASU: 27

Illinois Fighting Illini @ #15 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Alert the presses! Illinois won a conference game! JT Barrett is hurt so we're ripe for an upset....wait, it's in the Shoe...at night? Nevermind.  Illinois CRASHES hard back to earth as the Buckeye's reassert their case for B1G supremacy and national attention.  Barrett will be somewhat coddled for the knee so expect a heavy dose of Zeke (please, Tom).  The D-Line is looking forward to beating the Illini down.  Can the defense keep the momentum from the PSU performance? I think so.  The offense will be somewhat pedestrian as Urban protects the QB and keeps some in his pocket for East Lansing.  Take it easy, get the win, and make next week count.  Ill: 13--OSU: 41
Hoying: FINALLY, the B1G basement dwellers are starting to rise above 1-11 or 2-10 status. For the first time since the conference expanded beyond 11 teams, each member is going to finish with at least 3 wins, including our beloved rivals, the Fighting Illini. Somehow, Illinois lost the dynamic leader of its offense and got better, rising up to snakebite Minnesota in Champaign. The Orange and Blue were actually outgained by a significant margin, but used turnovers to stay in the game until they could pull off the upset with a late score. Sound a bit similar to another game from last weekend? The good news: Illinois doesn't feature one of the nation's top run defenses, or a great defense at all, or even a bad defense. They won't capture lightning in a bottle twice, as long as J.T. can avoid pick sixes and daydreams of sweet revenge against that other team up north. Ill: 17--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: I really don't know who this Ohio State team is, and I think that is a product of the schedule.  I think the Bucks roll to a 20+ point victory last week if not for the pick 6, but that offensive line...come on man!  I thought you guys had it fixed.  Run blocking? No problem.  Pass protection...very hit or miss.  As for this week, it's another feel good game before the Sparty showdown next week.  I expect to see very few J.T. runs out of the offense and it won't really be needed.  I don't need to say anything about the Silver Bullets (yea, they are real close to being back) as they have looked aggressive and talented this year.  Bucks roll, bring on Sparty!! Ill: 13--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Well, last week went as scripted- for two quarters at least.  Apparently our massively paid offensive coaching staff has never heard of a 'Plan B' as the offense sputtered when J.T. tweaked his knee.  Luckily, Joey Bosa is an absolute beast, and we get mediocre Illinois off a surprising win against Minnesota that will likely keep them fat and happy for a couple weeks at least.  Get ahead early, keep J.T. healthy, and pray Michigan State isn't using their bye week well (I still think a conspiracy theory is afoot with that scheduling).  Ill: 13--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa State over Oklahoma
Hoying: Louisville over Florida State
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Mississippi State (CHAOS!!!)
Seeberg:  Pitt over Duke