Week 11 - REVENGE!

Standings

1) Draper               30-15    (4-6 upset)

1) Seeberg              30-15    (1-9 upset)
3) Hoying               29-16    (3-7 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     28-17    (3-7 upset)

Welcome to the biggest week of the 2014 football season. Both the B1G and the B12 feature matchups that could practically decide their conference titles right now, while the Pac-12, SEC, and Notre Dame all feature in games with serious January implications. Fourteen Power 5 teams enter the weekend with one loss or fewer; a maximum of eleven will leave.

#8 Kansas State Wildcats @ #5 TCU Horned Frogs

Draper: The Battle for the Big Twelve won't be decided here, but this goes a long way to deciding it.  The Horned Frogs schedule opens up after this game so all the other 1-loss teams have to be rooting furiously for K-State.  The Wildcats still have tough road tests to follow.  Gary Patterson's squad played about as bad as they could, and still eked out an ugly win in Morgantown.  Bill Snyder likes to play the 'slow and steady wins the race' card, but the Frogs have just enough with Boykin to take care of business.  I want AARP to get the win....but I'm not expecting it.  KSU: 27--TCU: 31

Hoying: Particular people prefer purple power playoff play-ins. Two historical Big 12 powerhouses square off for an inside track to the Sugar Bowl semifinal game. Whether Bill Snyder is actually Emperor Palpatine or George Burns from Oh, God!, his mystical powers have once again propelled the Wildcats into the thick of the national title hunt. Jake Waters isn't quite Collin Klein, but he's engineering a high-scoring, well-balanced offense that's only been stopped by the top-5 Auburn Tigers. However, Trevone Boykin and the Violet Lizards are even more prolific on O, though the Mountaineers did manage to provide a blueprint for victory against them (don't commit 5 turnovers, don't Tresselball in the 4th quarter). Bottom line: TCU is just better, and a win on Saturday virtually guarantees them a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff (TCU's remaining schedule: Kansas, Texas, Iowa State). KSU: 24--TCU: 30

Schweinfurth: In my mind, TCU is one of the most battle tested teams in the country.  Yes, they have lost in spectacular fashion to Baylor, but they have played well in general.  Last week's come from behind win at West Virginia showed that the Horned Frogs have the stones needed to play with most teams.  Kansas State just seems to be that steady team that just wins but doesn't wow anyone.  To me the difference in this game is going to be Trevone Boykin.  He just seems to make that offense click and can flip a switch when needed.  KSU: 21--TCU: 31

Seeberg:  Once again, the match up everyone had circled on their calendars for Big 12 supremacy...except not.  TCU escaped West Virginia (who has had an absolutely brutal schedule en route to the best 6-3 team in the country) on a last-second field goal.  Meanwhile, Kansas State just keeps rolling and their near-miss against Auburn while allowing just 20 points looks all the more impressive after Auburn put up 35 at Ole Miss.  I don't like that this game is at TCU, but Kansas State is my pick in the Big 12, and their road win at Oklahoma gives them the confidence to do it again.  KSU: 28--TCU: 24

#7 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #12 LSU Tigers

Draper: If you want chaos, root for the booger eater.  An LSU win here could lead to some ridiculous SEC West scenarios.  The Tigers have improved greatly from early in the season, but was it improvement, or maybe the teams they played weren't THAT good.  I think mostly improvement, but Bama comes in with some swagger.  Yes, Saban's squad has been beating up on the Little Sisters of the Poor, and LSU at home is another thing entirely, but the Tide know this is a statement game.  Beat Mississippi State, no one will care (even though they thrashed LSU).  Beat the Tigers (even though they're down), and the masses take note.  Saban sacrifices a small animal and the Tide Roll.  Bama: 24--LSU: 13

Hoying: It's plausible that the top 5 teams in the nation are all in the SEC West, and it's possible that they might all end up tied at season's end at 10-2 apiece. Step 1 would be Les Miles working his bayou voodoo against his old rival Nick Saban. The Tigers have underperformed away from Baton Rouge, skirting by Florida and getting obliterated by Auburn, but Death Valley has been home sweet home, where LSU is a Hail Mary away from a Magnolia state sweep. Unfortunately, the Tigeouaeauxrs still seem to be without a passing game, and you're not going to stop Nick Saban by being one-dimensional. Not even if you're Louisiana-Monroe. Ala: 17--LSU: 9

Schweinfurth: Here's the skinny, I don't think these teams should be that highly rated.  Alabama has beaten whom this year? A three loss West Virginia team.  Who has LSU beaten? An overrated Ole Miss team.  Les Miles has already had his "I'm gonna pull this win outta my butt" win for the year.  Amari Cooper is good and he's gonna toast the Tiger secondary. Ala: 24--LSU:10

Seeberg:  LSU got back to playing like LSU at home in their impressive win over Ole Miss.  Alabama is, stunningly, under the radar after losing early in the season and then looking very lackluster against Arkansas and allowing a mediocre Tennessee team to make things interesting for a while last week.  If a wideout is going to win the Heisman for just the third time ever, Amari Cooper must step up big in this game (he would be fourth in my Heisman ballotting if we went that far).  I believe the Tigers will hold Cooper down enough to effectively end his outside shot at the stiff-arm trophy, but LSU has too few playmakers on offense to pull out another low-scoring affair.  Ala: 21--LSU: 10

#10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #9 Arizona State Sun Devils

Draper: Two teams that are riding high with 1-loss, but man have they looked shaky.  ND struggled mightily against a scrappy Navy squad and ASU has struggled with...well...everyone. Who is the team that comes up with one big stop or one big play to make the difference in a super close one?  I'll lean to the home team.  Injuries are starting to run through the Irish roster.  Golsen is the better QB, but let's not forget that the Irish gave up a billion points to god-awful North Carolina.  ND: 27--ASU: 28

Hoying: What's that phrase again? "Borrowed time"? After another pair of unimpressive victories last week (Notre Dame over Navy and Arizona State over Utah in overtime), both of these teams limp into this game to technically keep their playoff hopes alive, but does anyone believe either one is going to get there? After a promising start against terrible competition, ND again stands for No Defense, giving up over 30 points in each of their last 3 games. What will they do against ever-improving ASU QB Mike Bercovici? Everett Golson lives to get his teams out of tight jams, but the luck of the Irish is about to run out. ND: 30--ASU:31 

Schweinfurth: It's starting to look like Notre Dame went all in on that Florida State game only to come out on the wrong side of the scoreboard.  Those last two games the Domers have played have not been good.  Here is also a fun statistic roaming around: teams are WINLESS (this includes Ohio State) the week after playing Navy (with no bye week).  I look for that trend to continue. ND: 21--ASU:35

Seeberg:  It's that time of year again, when Notre Dame's brutal backloaded schedule catches up to them.  The Golden Domers may play the toughest schedule this side of the SEC West (and West Virginia), but it has benefitted from the likes of Rice, Syracuse, and *chuckle* TTUN thus far.  Road games at ASU, USC and a home tilt against Louisville will expose the defensive struggles that have been typical of the Irish in recent years.  Arizona State escaped against a one-dimensional Utah attack, but points will be easier to come by in this one.  I still love those trident helmets!!  ND: 28--ASU: 38

#11 Baylor Bears @ #16 Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: OU has been supremely disappointing this season.  Baylor....well, they beat TCU in the 'huh?' game of the year and got wrecked in Morgantown.  This team is different on the road.  The Sooners usually blow people out in Norman and they'd still be in this thing if their kicker didn't choke (and cost me a game---still bitter).  Baylor has that video game offense, but the horses aren't the same this year.  Bryce Petty is having a nice year, but a lot of his toys are missing.  I'll lean to the home team again.  This feels like a random game that Big Game Bob shows up for and the Sooner Schooner is busy.  Bay: 31--OU: 41

Hoying: At this point, it's all but certain that the preseason Big 12 favorite Oklahoma Sooners aren't going to walk away with the conference title. Instead, the Sooners have become the championship gatekeeper, separating the contenders (Kansas State, TCU) from the pretenders (West Virginia). Baylor still controls its destiny in the Big 12, but it's going to have to weather an Oklahoma offense that hasn't been held to below 30 points all season. The Baylor O was a little flighty on the road in October, but they're ready to make a big statement and knock the B12's premier team down another peg. Bay: 38--OU: 34

Schweinfurth: Man, Baylor can sure light up a scoreboard.  While offense is fun to watch, defense is going to win you games and championships.  Oklahoma have just been sitting there setting up a normal ten win season.  Like I said, Baylor can put up some points, but so can Oklahoma. Which team has the defense that can make a stop in this game? That's Oklahoma.  Bay: 45--OU: 49

Seeberg:  This may shock some of you, but the Sooners are a mere five points away from being undefeated this season, losing by 4 at TCU and by one against K-State.  Both teams are coming off demolitions of lowly conference foes and are relatively healthy.  Baylor is still that head-scratching loss against West Virginia away from being undefeated, but the Sooners have a come-uppance in store for the Bears.  Oklahoma gets a late stop when it needs it and officially ends Baylor's playoff hopes.  Bay: 38--OU: 45

#14 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ #6 Michigan State Spartans

Draper: The Bucks haven't had a 'circle the date game' for a while, but this is one of them.  After crushing the Buckeyes' B1G title and possible National Title hopes last year, the Spartans get the juggernaut in their place.  I know the Buckeyes haven't forgotten, but the question is whether this will be fuel for the fire, or amp them up beyond any useful energy.  This team has a lot of fire, but the youth has reared its head on the big stage (VT, PSU).  JT, this is your chance.  You want this job going forward, you make a claim tonight.  The numbers are great, but a loss to MSU ends not only the playoff hopes, but also the conference title hopes.  The team needs to show more than the resolve from PSU.  They need to show discipline and execution.  Connor Cook is overrated as shown by some of the struggles vs. terrible teams, but the senior leadership is important.  The Bucks need to keep the defensive intensity high and approach the offensive side of the ball with workmanlike precision.  If they can be blue-collar and fight to the end, I think they pull it off.  The real test will rear its head with an early mistake.  Can the Bucks regroup?  That will decide it.  I'm going to be a homer.  Go. Bucks. OSU: 34--MSU: 31

Hoying: Finally, after 336 days, the Buckeyes have the opportunity to reascend their perch as the B1G's standard-bearer. Can it be done? Ohio State is certainly talented enough. JT seems destined to break Troy Smith's single-season passing TD record, the Silver Bullets are playing tight coverage and missing very few tackles, and the Barrett-Elliott rushing combo is doing a decent impression of Miller-Hyde. The Spartans have looked vulnerable at times during their current winning streak, failing to put away their opponents late in the game. Sounds like the ingredients for a Buckeye victory, right? That's what I thought...until the Penn State game 2 weeks ago. This team has improved immensely since the Virginia Tech debacle, but on the big stage, we become Bucks in the headlights. Spartan Stadium isn't State College by a long shot, but the Spartans are very good, tough, motivated, and experienced. Gone is the erratic Connor Cook from the start of last year. After all, no one puts starting quarterbacks in the NFL like Mark Dantonio (Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, even Nick Foles). Mistakes doom the young Buckeyes to another year of mediocrity. OSU: 24--MSU: 27

Schweinfurth: It's finally time for the psuedo-B1G Championship game this year.  This one is going to be a fun game to watch for sure.  Both teams are essentially equal in points scored and allowed this year.  The Buckeye defense has looked really good this year (VT game not withstanding) and looks to have most if not all of the kinks worked out.  The offensive performance is going to be determined by the performance of J.T. Barrett.  Giving J.T. time to throw and safety valves will be key.  Offensive line, you guys are up. No more performances like Penn State or Virginia Tech.  On the Spartan side, they seem almost bored at times and play to their competition.  I really think they should have beaten TTUN by more, but they let them hang around.  There are holes to exploit in that secondary, and I actually have faith that Meyer and Co. are going to exploit them.  It's time for revenge and Urban always gets the best out of his teams in underdog situations.  OSU: 24--MSU: 17

Seeberg:  The good news?  I, along with most of the rest of the country, see this game as much more competitive than we had thought just a few weeks ago.  OSU cleared the lone hurdle after the VT catastrophe, but they knocked it over in the process in the near-collapse against Penn State.  The Spartans coasted a bit too freely in back-to-back weeks against Nebraska and Purdue and looked somewhat vulnerable, but here comes the bad news.  MSU has looked very solid in their last two games and also had two weeks to get ready for our beloved Bucks.  J.T. stayed healthy and seemed ok last week, but the Penn State game proved he still gets happy feet at times when pressured.  IF the coaching staff mixes in wide runs and LOTS of 3-step-drop type passes, we just might spring the upset.  Unfortunately, the play-calling has been utterly miserable in the six quarters of football where it was needed most (VT, PSU 2nd half), and I don't have faith enough in the offensive staff to make up for our lack of experience with enough good calls.  Sparty moves on as the B1G's lone playoff possibility.  OSU: 20--MSU: 24

Upset Special

Draper: Washington over UCLA

Hoying: Kentucky over Georgia

Schweinfurth: Texas over West Virginia

Seeberg:  Iowa over Minnesota