Thursday, October 01, 2015

Week 5 - B1G East Battle

Standings
1) Seeberg               14-5    (0-4 upset)
2) Draper                 13-6    (3-1 upset) 
2) Schweinfurth     13-6    (1-2 upset)
4) Hoying                11-8    (1-3 upset)


What a difference a year makes. After the end of nonconference play last season, the only undefeated B1G team was Penn State. This year, 5 out of the 29 remaining undefeated teams call the Big Ten their home. But only two meet this week as conference play kicks off in earnest.


West Virginia Mountaineers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Another Oklahoma game...where is it? Norman? These are the games Stoops usually wins.  Oklahoma has been tested in Knoxville (how good are the Vols? Don't know) but WVU has played the Little Sisters of the Poor.  I don't know how good either of these teams are, but I'll lean Perine and the Sooners in Norman.  WVU: 27 -- OU: 34
Hoying: You thought Bert and the 'Backs had a tough schedule? Try West Virginia. The Mountaineers kick off the first of 4 ranked matchups in October with a visit to Norman. Oklahoma had a nice comeback win against Tennessee, but last week the Gators showed us that any washed-up has-been former power can do the same. Meanwhile, West Virginia doesn't seem to be missing QB Clint Trickett, with Skyler Howard stepping in to lead one of the nation's top passing attacks. Beating West Virginia requires competent defense, and after Oklahoma gave up 38 to Tulsa, I'm not sure they can do it. The Sooners enter a land of confusion, and West Virginia gets a victory against all odds. WVU: 34--OU: 31
Schweinfurth: I feel like Oklahoma has fallen into the Big 12 trap of good offense, no defense. West Virginia has been doing that dance for years and are used to putting up big offensive numbers. I also feel that the Sooners are still settling into this new Air Raid system and are not running the ball enough. I give the edge to WVU, but they have a rough next few weeks. WVU: 42-OU: 38

Seeberg:  Not likely to see a whole lot of "D" in this one.  Oklahoma's win over the Vols has been cheapened by their second unconscionable 4th-quarter collapse against Florida last week, but that doesn't mean Oklahoma isn't still the better team in this matchup.  The Sooners are historically woeful on the road in any early-season matchup of consequence, but they got that monkey off their back by taking down rocky top, and back at home you can expect a better performance.  I like WVU and think they're a bit underrated personally, and in Morgantown I might give them the edge, but not in Norman.  Boomer Sooner survives a shootout  WVU: 42--OU: 45

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper:  Are either of these teams any good? Iowa is undefeated after a long FG to beat Pitt while Wisconsin's 'feather in the cap' is losing to Bama.  Who do I trust more? I don't really like either of these teams, but Kirk Ferentz has had too many bad to mediocre years to give any credence to until I have more evidence.  In Madison? Edge Badgers.  Iowa: 14--Wisconsin: 24
Hoying: Remember when Nebraska ran Bo Pelini out on a rail for winning no fewer than 9 games for 7 straight seasons? Iowa hasn't won 9 games since 2009, but the Hawkeyes may be poised to make a run this year. Iowa swept their nonconference slate for the first time in 6 years, and they drew powerhouses Indiana and Maryland from the BEast this year. But if they want to face our beloved Bucks under the lights in Indy, they'll have to get by a Wisconsin team that doesn't run the ball. That's as confusing as, well, Iowa still being relevant in October. Paul Chryst's growing pains continue as Kirk steals one in Madison. Iowa: 17--Wisc: 16

Schweinfurth: Iowa got past Iowa State for the first time in ever a few weeks ago. I still don't trust the Hawkeyes. This game is going to be a fight in the trenches and Wisconsin typically has the bulls to win that fight. Iowa: 14--Wisc: 17
Seeberg:  Iowa's unbeaten?  Color me shocked.  The Hawkeyes even have 2 wins over power 5 opponents, though a 3-point home win against Pitt barely qualifies.  (Man, I hope Mark May reads that).  The Badgers are struggling to find an identity on offense but have given up a measly 3 points in their last 3 games combined.  If my math skills serve me right, that's only an extra point per contest.  Iowa broke out offensively last week against North Texas but, well, that's North Texas.  Bucky reestablishes himself as the mascot to beat out west.  IOWA: 13--WISC: 24


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper:  The streak of 6 straight years of Nick Saban and the Tide being favorites has come to an end.  Will the Bulldogs further dethrone the Bad Boys of the SEC? Will UGA ever not disappoint in the big game under Richt? There will be some fantastic running back play in this play with Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.  The question is: Will Lane Kiffin remember Henry is on the team? I think we're seeing a decline in the Bama juggernaut and Georgia gets the win at home (only to crap it away in a few weeks). Ala: 27 -- UGA: 31
Hoying: In order to beat Crimson Tide under Nick Saban, you either need to play a near-perfect game or be
 a near-perfect team (or play them in his first year there, but that ship sailed 8 years ago). We saw the former in the Tide's second consecutive loss to Ole Miss (no, the Rebels aren't going to the playoff this year). Is Georgia the latter? The Bulldogs certainly look the part, riding Nick Chubb and an elite ground game to 4 blowout wins over teams that Bret Bielema would complain about and then lose to. The passing game isn't spectacular, but it's better than the hot mess brewing behind center in Tuscaloosa. If Lane Kiffin can finally learn to trust his stud RBs and stop throwing the ball, Alabama will come away with a victory. Never bet against Lane. Ala: 31--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: Georgia can run the ball and Nick Chubb is a beast. For some reason, Lane Kiffin has a allergy to running the ball. Oh wait, he is Lane Kiffin. In Saban's last two losses, his team has just been beaten up front. I think Georgia is the more physical team and Mark Richt finally gets the Saban monkey off his back. Ala: 20--UGA: 28
Seeberg:  I hate to disagree with my colleague Mr. Hoying, but I intentionally bet against Lane last week and it worked out.  JUST GIVE DERRICK HENRY THE BLEEPING BALL.  Will he figure it out this week?  I honestly don't know.  What I do know is that Greyson Lambert has only attempted 17 throws per game in Georgia's 4-0 start because Nick Chubb and Co. are ramming the running game down everyone's throat.  As good as their ground attack is I have trouble believing that much one-dimensionality can cause sustained problems for the Bama D.  Despite a 7:0 TD-int ratio this year, Lambert for his career is just 18:13.  I think Bama's D will rattle him and make a couple plays to bail out Kiffin's consistently head-scratching play calling and, unfortunately, put the Crimson Tide back in the hunt to be beaten in the playoff again.  ALA: 28--UGA: 23


Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Has anyone actually seen a K-State game this year?  All I know about these teams is the the Pokes squeaked out a close win in Austin last week so I feel more confident with them.  Bill Snyder is known for scheduling (through Kansas State) cupcakes to start the year, so 4-0 is never a shock. The undefeated season comes to a halt in Stillwater.  KSU: 20--OSU: 34
Hoying: I apologize for putting this game on the list, but K-State is still undefeated after a classic Bill Snyder non-conference slate: South Dakota, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech. Oklahoma State almost faceplanted against a bad Texas team and need to find their footing if they're going to keep pace in a deep Big XII. OSU QB Mason Rudolph leads a Cowboy offense that has sputtered at time, failing to reach 40 (I'm a man!) in 3 of their 4 games. I think they'll again have trouble hitting that mark, but an improved defense should keep the Wildcats at bay. KSU: 20--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Not sure how this one plays out due to the fact that I only know who the coaches of these teams are. I do know that Mike Gundy typically has a pretty good offense, so I'll pick the Cowboys out of my hat. KSU: 21--OSU: 30
Seeberg:  Tough to figure this one out.  Kansas State has taken the mantle from Baylor as the most pathetic nonconference schedule known to man to get to 3-0.  Okla State looked rough against a Texas team that can suddenly score the ball a little, but squeaked out the W to stay unbeaten as well.  Ironically, the Big 12's OSU has had a similar arc to our beloved Buckeyes this year:  Highly touted offense that has struggled at times, but a D with question marks that has actually played half-decent.  Add that to the fact that K-State gave up 33 at home to Louisiana Tech and you've got yourself a 5-0 Cowboys squad by Saturday's end.  KSU: 24--OSU: 34

Ole Miss Rebels @ Florida Gators

Draper: Ole Miss is going to tout that win over Bama forever...even though they got super lucky and we don't know if Bama is 'world beater' of the recent past.  That being said...Florida? Really? Yeah, they're undefeated but you spell mirage G-A-T-O-R-S.  The game will be shockingly close in the 3rd but the Rebs pull away late.  Miss: 28 -- UF: 16
Hoying: Is Florida a historically mediocre program buoyed by two all-time great coaches: Spurrier and Meyer? Or are they a top-tier mainstay that only incompetent hacks like the Zooker and big dumb Will Muschamp can wreck? The post-Muschamp Gators have yet to lose a game, but the competition ramps up in a hurry. The Rebels, the hottest team east of Utah, are looking to avoid the post-Alabama meltdown that wrecked their playoff hopes last season. That quest will end eventually, but not this week, no matter how loud Jim McElwain screams. Miss--31--UF: 13
Schweinfurth: Florida is still rebuilding and Ole Miss looks like the class of the SEC right now. Miss: 35--UF: 20
Seeberg:  Really?  A last-minute win over a we-forget-games-have-four-quarters Tennessee squad is enough to put the Gators in the top 25?  Ridiculous.  Thankfully that will be a short-lived issue as the Rebels come to town sporting the only team in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency- even after meeting the overlord Bama.  Rebels make quick work of this one.  MISS: 45--FLA: 17

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Did I say mirage? That is the theme of this game.  I believe both of these teams may be mirages, but Notre Dame's claim to fame was taking down the Jackets...who subsequently lost to Duke.  This is when the Irish rubber meets the road and Clemson's Death Valley is the 3rd loudest stadium I've ever been to (behind the Swamp and the Shoe).  Dabo tries to blow it, but this is the game in which the Domers fall from glory.  Clemson's day will come, but it will not be this day.  ND: 21 -- Clemson: 31
Hoying: When will Notre Dame's injuries finally catch up with them? The crew at Let's Go Bucks! unanimously picked the Irish to crash and burn against GT after losing Malik Zaire, but the Jackets rambled and wrecked their way to a loss in South Bend. ND's fate may change as they leave the friendly confines and enter "Death Valley." Clemson has 3 okay wins against 3 bad teams, but they have all of 2 home losses in the last 4 years. Notre Dame doesn't travel particularly well, and they don't have the horses to move the ball on an improved Tiger defense. Pick the home team. ND: 20--Clem: 35
Schweinfurth: At some point, all of these injuries have to catch up with the Irish. I think it is this week. Both offenses move the ball well and neither team plays great defense. Time for a shootout in Death Valley. ND: 42--Clem: 49
Seeberg:  I've actually been very impressed with Clemson this year.  They seem to be playing a reasonable facsimile of...oh crap what's the word?  Oh yeah.  DEFENSE.  Though their offense struggled against the only 1-A opponent they've played to date, the Golden Domer D is more porous than in recent years.  And quite frankly, I just don't like them either; however, I thoroughly enjoy the Tiger Rag, so I gotta go with #soybeanwind (it's an anagram for Dabo Swinney that I sadly cannot take credit for, but if you aren't watching Last Week Tonight clips on youtube the following day like everybody not fortunate enough to have HBO then SHAME ON YOU...and go watch it!).  ND: 20--CLEM: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Will the Buckeye offense ever figure it out? This is the (fifth straight) week in which they should.  Let's be real here.  IU has an offense.  Sudfeld is a good QB and Kevin Wilson can coach offense, but the Hoosier defense is a steaming pile of cow dung.  117th in the country in total defense after the murderer's row of Southern Illinois, FIU, Western Kentucky, and Wake Forest.  If the Bucks don't break 50, I'll be extremely disappointed. While the D gives up more than most will be comfortable with, Cardale hits some of those bombs he missed last week and the Bucks keep it going.  OSU: 62 -- IU: 30

Hoying: For the fourth time this year, the Bucks enter a battle of unbeatens. But this game is a really, really, B1G deal. You may have seen that Ohio State and Indiana haven't faced each other unblemished since 1954. What you probably don't know is that that was the season opener! The Buckeyes and Hoosiers haven't met with both teams better than 1-0...EVER. Ohio State doesn't lose to Indiana often, but the wins have not come easily under Urban Meyer. Letting Tevin Coleman run all over you is understandable, but allowing Xander Diamont to have success throwing the ball is not. This year, the Hoosiers have Nate Sudfeld back and might lead the best offense the Bullets will face this regular season. Don't expect Cardale to struggle against another vintage Indiana defense, but the Hoosiers have just enough weapons to make this one interesting. The good news is, there's no reason at all for Ohio State to be looking ahead. On to 5-0. OSU: 42--IU: 24
Schweinfurth: Laugh at this all you want, but I think the Western Michigan game was a great tune up for Indiana. Both teams like to throw quick passes to the outside and then run inside zone from a wide open spread. This exposed the Buckeye interior defense, but I expect this coaching staff to make the adjustment. Now that the QB situation is finally settled, Cardale can get all the reps in practice and lock those deep bombs in. The receivers had separation last week and they should be able to get behind the leaky Hoosiers' secondary. It's B1G season so it's time to hammer Zeke and stop getting cute with the "Globetrotter Offense." OSU: 49--IU: 21
Seeberg:  
 The good from last week:  The offense looked better, the special teams improved as well.  The bad?  The D looked worse.  Getting into conference play, I fear the Huskies may have exposed some weaknesses.  Specifically, teams can score on us if centers don't shoot their teams in the foot.  In any event, Indiana can typically score it well the past few years, and they give up points equally well.  This should be a matchup that will test the Silver Bullets but allow the offense to begin to hit its stride.  What's a Hoosier anyway?  OSU: 45--IU: 20

Upset Special

Draper: CLANGA over Texas A&M
Hoying: Minnesota over Northwestern
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech over Baylor
Seeberg:  Air Force over Navy

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