Week 7 - That Rivalry Up North

Standings
1) Seeberg              24-7    (0-6 upset)
2) Draper                22-9    (4-2 upset) 
3) Hoying               21-10    (1-5 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     20-11    (1-5 upset)

As we approach the season's halfway point, 16 undefeated teams are still in the playoff chase, with another 14 Power 5 teams floating around with just one loss. This week's action should go a long way toward determining  who we'll see in Miami and Dallas on New Year's Eve, particularly from our own beloved B1G.

UCLA Bruins @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: After the anomaly in Evanston, Stanford has really come together and started to look like a real football team.  UCLA on the other hand, started super hot and now has come crashing back to earth.  Stanford has much more experience at QB but Josh Rosen is the flavor of the month.  The loss of Myles Jack is huge, but I'm expecting a rebound from the Bruins.  Stanford tries to muck it up, but UCLA gets enough flash to escape Palo Alto with a win.  UCLA: 31 -- Stan: 28
Hoying: With all the turmoil that's engulfed the Pac-12 over the last couple of weeks, it's odd that these teams aren't getting more hype as potential playoff contenders. Each is sitting on only one loss and has looked pretty good the rest of the time. Age meets beauty behind center as Stanford senior QB Kevin Hogan and UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen continue to have excellent seasons slinging the ball. But in big games, experience counts, and Stanford has been the hot team after losing their opener to better-than-expected Northwestern. Cardinal get the win in front of all 50 of their fans at home. UCLA: 20--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: I can honestly say I really don't know much about these two teams (thanks to after 10 PM PAC-12 games and the whole east coast bias thing). What I do know is that both teams have good QBs. Unfortunately, UCLA is without Miles Jack and Stanford have a senior QB. Advantage Cardinal. UCLA: 28--Stan: 31
Seeberg:  Stanford is averaging 35 ppg on offense.  That may come as a shock to some of you who only remember their 16-6 opening week debacle at Northwestern.  Meanwhile in SoCal, UCLA was the toast of the Pac-12 for about 47 minutes and then lost badly to Arizona State at home last week.  Both teams run it well and have talented QBs, though Kevin Hogan has far more experience.  I think UCLA will be poised for this game, knowing a second conference loss all but ruins their plans for the year, but Stanford is playing just a little too well at the moment.  Dance hideous tree, dance.  UCLA: 24--STAN: 31

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats
Draper:  Is Iowa for real? Is Northwestern decent or will they fold after their first adversity of the year.  Michigan took the wind out of the Wildcats sails, but we need to see if Northwestern folds after the first bad game like they have so often in the recent past.  Iowa is undefeated but they haven't played anyone of note (before you give me Wisconsin...you obviously didn't watch that poor excuse of a 'game' in Madison).  I think Northwestern rebounds at home in a tight low scoring affair.  Iowa: 10 -- NW: 13
Hoying: Michigan ruins everything. What could've been a showdown between two undefeated B1G West heavyweights is...still actually really important. Sure, Northwestern got blasted, but they still control their destiny and a win over the Hawkeyes would put them in the driver's seat. But do the 'Cats have anything left in the tank? In 2013, Ohio State broke undefeated and ranked Northwestern and it took them 2 years to recover. The loss to Michigan wasn't quite as heartbreaking (NW was probably at peace with it by about the 4th quarter) but they'll need to be at full power to handle an Iowa team that continues to have success on the ground and on defense. Northwestern is the better team, but don't underestimate the hangover effect. Iowa: 16--NW: 13
Schweinfurth: You have to think that Northwestern is reeling after the beating they took last week. This seems to happen every year. Northwestern gets off to a great start and then puts all their energy into one game, get their hearts ripped out, and then crash the rest of the year. It looks like it might happen again this year. Iowa is just bullying teams with their defense and physical run game. The Wildcat defense was totally shut down last week and I don't see much changing this week. The Northwestern crash begins. Iowa: 20--NW: 3
Seeberg:  Let's be honest here, both teams are already playing with house money at 6-0 (Iowa), 5-1 (NW) and in the top 20.  However, NW basically collapsed after their last nationally relevant game ended in defeat against the Buckeyes in Evanston two years ago.  The 38-0 scoreline against TTUN was a touch misleading as 14 points came off of returns (kick and INT), but Northwestern still got exposed and they haven't scored more than 27 against an FBS opponent this season.  This is the biggest test for Iowa to date, but after winning ugly against an albeit down Wisconsin team at their hellhole of a stadium, I don't expect the Cubbie-crazy Chicago suburb to be too into this game after the loss at UM.  Hawkeyes ugly their way to 7-0.  IOWA: 17--NW: 10

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper:  Bama seemed to have rebounded with a monster of a game vs. UGA but the Arkansas game was clearly a little scary for 3 quarters for those in Tuscaloosa.  A&M is another of those teams just hanging around.  Are they good? I have no idea, but I think Bama, when at their peak, is solid.  I fear for my life too much to pick against Saban, even at Kyle Field.  Bama: 31--TAMU: 21
Hoying: It's possible that the SEC's best team is playing in this game, and that they'll be wearing the home maroons. After thrashing Arizona State in the season opener, the Aggies have quietly strung together 4 more wins behind the excellent play of QB Kyle Allen. Meanwhile, Alabama struggled to do anything for 3 quarters against Bert before pulling away. Stopping the Arkansas offense is one thing; can Saban shut down Texas A&M? Ole Miss needed every trick in the book and every favorable bounce to bounce Alabama, and I don't think lightning is going to strike twice until Bama's opponent has a bit more thunder in the tank. Bama: 38--TAMU: 28
Schweinfurth: One gets the feeling that Alabama has been escaping more games this year than in the past. This isn't the Alabama of the last few years. Saban still hasn't figured out how to stop a good spread offense and relies on guys who are on the large, slower side. It does seem that Lane Kiffin has pulled his head out of his backside (Saban's edict?) and has begun to rely on that strong running game lead by Derrick Henry. The Aggies always give the Tide fits and this is another close one. Henry and the Tide run game are the difference. Bama: 42--TAMU: 38
Seeberg:  Bama is 5-1 this season despite not really looking much like Bama for long stretches with the exception of their thrashing of Georgia.  They were down 7-3 in the 3rd quarter against we-lost-to-Toledo Arkansas before waking up to win 27-14.   In a slightly darker shade of Crimson, the Aggies haven't really faced any adversity whatsoever in their 5-0 start except against- that's right- we-also-lost-to-Texas-Tech Arkansas.  The Aggies needed OT to escape the Razorbacks.  The difference?  The Aggies could not run the ball at all and needed Kyle Allen heroics (358 pass yds) to win.  Bama has an improving Jay Coker and Derrick Henry to hand the ball to.  That balance will, combined with Bama's D shutting down the run like Arkansas did, give the Crimson Tide a close win.  BAMA: 27--TAMU: 20

Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: This game all of a sudden got realllllll interesting.  Michigan is arguably the hottest team in football with 3 straight shutouts.  MSU has been limping along all season similar to OSU.  The question is: Is MSU (and OSU) bored, or do they have chinks in the armor? I imagine it's a little of both.  In my opinion, Michigan is playing at their maximum level and we have yet to see the best of MSU.  Being in the Big House, the Wolverine faithful will be strutting their stuff up until kickoff.  Something tells me, this is the week in which MSU puts it together.  Cook, and Scott steadily wear down the vaulted Wolverine defense and the Spartan defense exposes Jake Rudock as the worthless QB he is.  Close game, but the Blue go home crying after another beat at the hands of 'little brother'.  MSU: 20 -- UM: 13
Hoying: Remember when the hot talk was whether Ohio State and Michigan State could both make the playoff after blowing through their easy conference slates? Suddenly, the hot takes aren't talking about either team representing the B1G. Three straight shutouts will do wonders for a team's reputation, even when that team has done this to us before in recent memory, starting 4-0 in 2009 (finished 5-7), 5-0 in 2010 (finished 7-6), and 5-0 in 2013 (finished 7-6). What's the mark of Michigan being back for real? Knocking off Little Brother. The Maize and Blue owned the Green and White before Lloyd left, but it's been incredibly rough sailing since. Part of it is the constant coaching changes, especially since a first-year Wolverine coach hasn't beaten their #2 rivals since Bennie Oosterbaan in 1948. This year, the evil empire has the better defense and maybe even the better running game. This one will come down to how well the Spartan front can rattle Rudock and force him to make mistakes. Sparty's struggled to put away worse teams, and after seeing Utah pick off Cal QB Jared Goff 5 times, it looks like maybe Jake's not the turnover machine Buckeye Nation thought they could ridicule all year. Be glad we have another 6 weeks to prepare, because the Harbaugh victory train keeps right on rolling. MSU: 20--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to make of these two teams. TUN defense actually looks legit, but I have serious questions about Jake Rudock as a decent QB. I feel like he just hasn't done much and the Wolverines rely way too much on the run game. On the other side, the Spartans have been playing uninspired football the last few weeks and barely escaped Piscataway with a win last week. We know Dantonio can coach up that defense and I think the Spartans have been looking forward to this game all year to this point. We finally see the Spartan team that rolled Oregon in week two and L.J. Scott has a big day chewing up clock. All hail Little Brother. MSU: 17--UM: 14
Seeberg:  If anyone tells you they had the Wolverines favored by a full touchdown in this game at the start of the season, then they have taken a quantum leap in the field of compulsive lying.  Yet somehow, that's where we find ourselves.  I think the Spartans are probably the better team assuming both squads are at even strength, but a laundry list of injuries has Sparty looking quite pedestrian.  Meanwhile, Jake Rudock has looked positively competent since his disastrous 3 INT performance against Utah, although I do think the 38 points put up against NW last week is a bit misleading (kick return TD and a pick-6 account for 14 of those points).  Nonetheless, the hideous maize and blue are the better team right now.  The shutout streak ends, but L.J. Scott is really all MSU has on offense, and it won't be enough.  Sorry Sparty.  MSU: 13--UM: 20

Florida Gators @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: A sexy matchup in the Bayou...before Will Grier was suspended for the year.  The Gators were a pleasant surprise through the first half of the year (even with the close call vs. UK) but this is the straw that broke the Gator's back...and oh yeah, there's a guy named Leonard Fournette on the other sideline.  With Grier, the Gators had a chance (still not a great one), without him, I don't see this being close.  Death Valley is really tough to win in at night, even for full teams.  This could be over by half.  UF: 10--LSU: 27
Hoying: A league of terrible quarterbacks just got terribler. Florida's Will Grier, a virtual lock for all-SEC QB, peed in the wrong cup and now he'll have to watch Treon Harris bumble and stumble his way against a fearsome Tiger D in Death Valley. That is, if Harris himself doesn't get suspended again before Saturday. It's not like LSU is going to be any better through the air, but when you have Leonard Fournette, you don't really need a two-dimensional offense. It's like having a 16 oz prime rib and complaining that your salad doesn't have enough croutons on it. Florida, like a crouton, is toast, and not even the Ol' Ball Coach could save them. It's not possible to lose your superstar QB for the season and compete for the national title. Fla: 17--LSU: 31 
Schweinfurth: What happens when you don't check the label on your over-the-counter supplements? You get suspended for using a PED (oops). So now both teams have huge question marks at the QB position. It's also put up or shut-up time for Fournette. I think he will provide all the offense LSU needs in this game, but doesn't rip off the big one he has had the last few weeks. Fla: 13--LSU: 14
Seeberg:  Can LSU throw the ball?  I honestly have no idea.  What's scarier is that LSU has no idea either, averaging a paltry 122 yards per game.  If Fournette runs all over the Gators he is a likely shoe-in for the Heisman but I don't see that happening.  He'll certainly get near/over 100 yards, but it will probably take 20-25 carries.  Florida's offense isn't exactly a juggernaut either, but they did put up 38 on Ole Miss which is more than I would expect LSU to score against the Rebels.  Oddly, Florida doesn't run the ball particularly well, so both offenses are one-dimensional.  In short, the squad I trust most on the field is the Florida D, having faced better competition than LSU and giving up 8 fewer ppg.  Fournette might make enough plays to win it, but if he doesn't do it by himself, the Gators will rule the day. STOP THE PRESSES:  Will Grier was just suspended for the season for testing positive for PEDs.  I had Florida before that news, but that just might be the break LSU needs to pull out a low-scoring win.  FLA: 10--LSU: 17

Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE University of Cincinnati Bearcats
Draper: Penn State was to be the second biggest threat to the Buckeyes after the Spartans.  Now, I'm not really concerned at all.  Christian Hackenberg was once the NFL darling, but he folds under pressure...uh oh.  The front seven will be giving him fits all day (I'm saying 5 sacks).  I haven't seen a single thing out of Happy Valley that should worry the Buckeyes.  This is a rebound game for the defense after a subpar performance vs. craptastic Maryland.  Offensively, there were some good things that need to continue.  This whole redzone QB thing bothers me (if JT is the best making decisions in the red zone, he's the best option period) but we should have plenty of time to work out the kinks.  Game goals: , no turnovers for the offense, utilize the short passing game effectively but take a few shots deep, and the usual 100+ for Zeke. Defensively, at least 3 sacks, zero big plays, and run defense.  Another tune-up game that SHOULD be done by half.  PSU: 10 -- OSU: 38 
Hoying: FINALLY. That's the #1 Buckeye team we've been waiting to see since Labor Day. No turnovers? Check. Perfect in the red zone? Check. Contain the QB? ......well, it's a good thing we don't have to worry about facing another mobile QB for a while (bring it on, Cook & Rudock). Last year, this was the game that I thought would solidify OSU's resurrection from their awful loss to VT, but it instead showed that they could handle adversity and come together when it mattered most. This season, I'm not really worried. Hackenberg continues to struggle when put under pressure (dear Lord...) and the two-headed monster should shred an overrated Nittany Lion D. Make no mistake, Penn State is a complete mirage, and if the Bucks keep their current trajectory, they might steal a few first place votes back on Sunday morning. PSU: 13--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, Pick Six University is rolling into town this week to face off the Men of the Black and...What are our school colors again? The two headed monster of Cardale and J.T. looked good and the coaching staff did a very good job of playing to both QBs' strengths. I expect this to continue with some J.T. sprinkled in to other areas of the field as well (probably some short yardage packages). This is going to be a pass first game as the Nittany Lions are going to load up to stop Zeke. Is this the week we see Braxton throw a pass? Maybe if it is the jet sweep tap pass. Otherwise, he stays on the outside. I expect Braxton and Thomas to have huge games (100+ yards each). We also get to see Christian Sackenberg and boy will he take a beating. Yes, the Lion offensive line has looked better since that Temple game, but they haven't faced a D-Line like this since last year's OSU game and they gave up 4 sack. Lewis, Washington, Bosa, and Lee all get at least one sack in this game. PSU lives up to expectations this year and Powell gets the pick six. PSU: 10--OSU: 45
Seeberg:  SO many games this week that seem as if they will be closely contested, this is the only one I can pick with a good amount of confidence.  The offense seemed to take a step forward last week.  Still too many penalties but no turnovers is definitely a plus.  J.T. in the red zone was unexpected but highly effective.  We just have to hope that one week of tape isn't enough for teams to put a package together to thwart our sudden red-zone efficiency.  Our previously highly touted defense apparently refuses to use a spy on a running quarterback, but thankfully good ole' Sackenburg is a relatively stagnant target in the pocket.  I'm still concerned about the receiving corps- only Michael Thomas appears to be getting separation with any consistency.  I also think Samuel needs more touches to compliment Zeke and Braxton in the backfield.  Still, in the 'Shoe and not the confines of Drunkard Happy Valley for a night game, the Bucks should win going away.  PSU: 17--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Kansas State over Oklahoma
Hoying: Arizona State over Utah
Schweinfurth: West Virginia over Baylor
Seeberg:  Louisville over Florida State