For those of you keeping score at home, you may remember that the one year in which Ohio State actually started in the top four was the one year in which Ohio State did not make the playoff (2015). In the other two years of the playoff, the Buckeyes premiered at #16 and finished at #4 (2014) and premiered at #6 (hint, hint) and finished at #3 (2016).
But that was then, and this year there's a new rogues' gallery for Ohio State to navigate. How dire are our prospects? Let's dive in.
The Obvious Problem (undefeated teams)
There may be 5 teams currently ranked ahead of the Buckeyes, but only #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama still have unblemished records. Waiting in the wings are #9 Wisconsin and #10 Miami, also unsullied. And the Committee has never left out an undefeated Power 5 team (sorry, #18 UCF), though it's not outside the realm of possibility, judging by the way undefeated 2014 Florida State finished behind two one-loss teams. The good news is that as long as the Buckeyes take care of business, only 2 of these 4 usurpers can finish without a loss. Georgia and Alabama are on a collision course for the SEC Championship, and Wisconsin is just itching for another 59-0 beatdown in Indianapolis at the hands of the Silver Bullets. So, at worst, we're looking at 13-0 Alabama and 13-0 Miami. That leaves at least 2 spots remaining for one-loss teams.
With this in mind, let's assess each team's threat to finish ahead of Ohio State:
#1 Georgia / #2 Alabama
The SEC champion is in, unless they somehow have 2 losses (not likely). What if both teams are 12-0 going into the SEC championship? Would the loser have a shot at making the playoff? Possibly, but it would be hard to justify putting a 12-1 non-champion ahead of a 12-1 Big Ten champion Ohio State with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. One (but not both) of these teams will take one playoff spot.
#3 Notre Dame / #4 Clemson / #10 Miami / #13 Virginia Tech
Miami is the common link here, scheduled to play Virginia Tech and Notre Dame over the next 2 weeks, and possibly Clemson in the ACC Championship. An undefeated Miami would clearly get in ahead of Ohio State, but that's close to a best-case scenario for the Bucks, as the Canes would have to knock out the other 3 teams to make it happen. More problematic would be Notre Dame winning out and Clemson winning the ACC. It's hard to see Clemson falling past the Buckeyes if they win out and pick up wins over NC State, South Carolina, and the winner of Miami and VT. Fair or unfair, 31-0 is hard to erase from people's minds. As for VT, if they win out they'll score a win over Miami and probably avenge their loss to Clemson in the title game. Would that outdo Ohio State wins over Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin? Doubtful, but it might depend on how Wisconsin looks down the stretch.
Notre Dame is the real wild card. They already have a sterling resume, with wins over USC, NC State, and Michigan State, and they can pick up wins over Miami and Stanford as well, but they don't have the opportunity to pick up a conference championship or a 12th win. I still don't see a good opportunity for Ohio State to jump them, although Notre Dame's quality opponents are going to be tested down the stretch, starting with this weekend.
In short, fear Clemson and Notre Dame winning out. Miami winning out would solve more problems that it creates, and Virginia Tech isn't a real threat (probably)
#5 Oklahoma / #8 TCU / #11 Oklahoma State
The good news here is that all these teams play each other due to the round robin nature of the Big 12, and each team has a loss already. Add in the pointless superfluous title game, and there won't be more than one one-loss team leaving this conference alive. Oklahoma is obviously the biggest threat, due to the head-to-head win over Ohio State (the only good non-conference win of any of these three). The survivor of this trio will have some nice quality wins over the other 2, but the rest of the Big 12...kind of sucks. TCU already has a win over Oklahoma State and they still trail the Buckeyes in the initial rankings. A Cowboy win in Bedlam this weekend, though it would weaken Ohio State's resume a bit, would likely solve the Big 12 problem. Otherwise, Oklahoma could throw a wrench into the works.
#7 Penn State / #9 Wisconsin
If Ohio State wins out, it'll have wins over both of these teams and a better overall resume than both. Root for both of them to keep winning.
#12 Washington
Washington's schedule is, to be charitable, lacking, and it has no prospect of improving in any meaningful way.
#1 Georgia / #2 Alabama
The SEC champion is in, unless they somehow have 2 losses (not likely). What if both teams are 12-0 going into the SEC championship? Would the loser have a shot at making the playoff? Possibly, but it would be hard to justify putting a 12-1 non-champion ahead of a 12-1 Big Ten champion Ohio State with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. One (but not both) of these teams will take one playoff spot.
#3 Notre Dame / #4 Clemson / #10 Miami / #13 Virginia Tech
Miami is the common link here, scheduled to play Virginia Tech and Notre Dame over the next 2 weeks, and possibly Clemson in the ACC Championship. An undefeated Miami would clearly get in ahead of Ohio State, but that's close to a best-case scenario for the Bucks, as the Canes would have to knock out the other 3 teams to make it happen. More problematic would be Notre Dame winning out and Clemson winning the ACC. It's hard to see Clemson falling past the Buckeyes if they win out and pick up wins over NC State, South Carolina, and the winner of Miami and VT. Fair or unfair, 31-0 is hard to erase from people's minds. As for VT, if they win out they'll score a win over Miami and probably avenge their loss to Clemson in the title game. Would that outdo Ohio State wins over Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin? Doubtful, but it might depend on how Wisconsin looks down the stretch.
Notre Dame is the real wild card. They already have a sterling resume, with wins over USC, NC State, and Michigan State, and they can pick up wins over Miami and Stanford as well, but they don't have the opportunity to pick up a conference championship or a 12th win. I still don't see a good opportunity for Ohio State to jump them, although Notre Dame's quality opponents are going to be tested down the stretch, starting with this weekend.
In short, fear Clemson and Notre Dame winning out. Miami winning out would solve more problems that it creates, and Virginia Tech isn't a real threat (probably)
#5 Oklahoma / #8 TCU / #11 Oklahoma State
The good news here is that all these teams play each other due to the round robin nature of the Big 12, and each team has a loss already. Add in the pointless superfluous title game, and there won't be more than one one-loss team leaving this conference alive. Oklahoma is obviously the biggest threat, due to the head-to-head win over Ohio State (the only good non-conference win of any of these three). The survivor of this trio will have some nice quality wins over the other 2, but the rest of the Big 12...kind of sucks. TCU already has a win over Oklahoma State and they still trail the Buckeyes in the initial rankings. A Cowboy win in Bedlam this weekend, though it would weaken Ohio State's resume a bit, would likely solve the Big 12 problem. Otherwise, Oklahoma could throw a wrench into the works.
#7 Penn State / #9 Wisconsin
If Ohio State wins out, it'll have wins over both of these teams and a better overall resume than both. Root for both of them to keep winning.
#12 Washington
Washington's schedule is, to be charitable, lacking, and it has no prospect of improving in any meaningful way.
So really, Ohio State only has to realistically fear 4 other teams in the playoff chase: the SEC champion, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma. What are the odds that ALL of the latter 3 win out? Not good.
Keep calm and just win.
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