Standings
1. Draper (30-9, 1-8 upset)
2. Schweinfurth (29-10, 0-9 upset)
3. Seeberg (27-12, 5-4 upset)
4. Hoying (26-13, 1-8 upset)
Now that we've finally hit November, the back-loaded schedules are starting to pay off. No more stretching for a terrible 4th game to pick: feast your eyes on an 8-pack of barn-burners of such variety that one of us might actually pick a different team to win!
Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Always love some good Bedlam. After the initial CFP top 25 release sees the Sooners at number 5 (unexpectedly to those that don't pay attention), Boomer Sooner is on top of the world! (Right where Mike Gundy and the Pokes want them). OU had to have spent most of last week patting themselves on the back being ahead of OSU in the initial rankings, but Mason Rudolph has to be foaming at the mouth to knock that stupid grin off of Mayfield's bro-face. Between the lines, these teams have different styles but have been winning the same way. I expect the home crowd and the pounding paddles to make the difference clearing one of the roadblocks out of the Buckeyes' way in a shootout. OU: 38--OkSt: 45
Hoying: Not counting UCF QB Mckenzie Milton, JT Barrett is now the the #2 most efficient QB in America, sandwiched between Baker Mayfield at #1 and Mason Rudolph at #3. So who's got the advantage here? It's hard to say. These teams are both offensive juggernauts with middling defenses. Each struggled against Texas and one or two other average conference foes. This one could come down to...coaching? Lincoln Rhyme is having a great first-year campaign at the Sooners' helm, but this isn't Mike Gundy's first rodeo. The Cowboys finally break free and continue on the path toward the most pointless championship game in all of sports, the round robin rematch. OU: 38--OkSt: 41
Schweinfurth: I am actually surprised Bedlam is this week. But alas, it is upon us. Oklahoma's defense has been hot garbage since holding Ohio State in check week 2 (I call that prepping all summer). It also appears that defenses have figured out Mike Gundy's high powered Cowboy offense but seemed to right that wrong last week. I am really not sure who to go with on this because both teams have been so good on offense and so, so bad on defense. I'll take the Pokes at home. Maybe Baker Mayfield can figure out how the CFP works after the game. OU: 42--OkSt: 49
Seeberg: Oklahoma feels somewhat like a yo-yo state in regards to its two preeminent college football programs. The Cowboys scored just 13 in beating Texas but seemed to right their offense last week, crushing West Virginia. The Sooners, meanwhile, were practically anointed national champs after dismantling OSU in the 'Shoe before looking downright pedestrian for four weeks straight (loss to ISU, three 1-possession wins over unranked teams). This definitely feels like a flip-a-coin matchup, but I'm guessing the Sooners pour it all out to win this one, then don't have enough left in the tank against TCU next week, probably because Mayfield will wear his arm out trying to plant another flag. OU: 42--OkSt: 34
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Some have called this the most beautiful trophy in all of sport...well, one has called it that (Franklin has to have something to talk about). Both of these teams come off disappointing week 9 losses at 2 different ends of the spectrum. PSU lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Buckeyes in a pseudo-elimination game (or is it?) and the Spartans went and doinked the season away vs. Northwestern to enhance Pat Fitzgerald's B1G COY resume. That being said, Penn State is simply the far superior team and will be much angrier. I don't think the loss to the Buckeyes will lead to a let down by the Lions, but rather a resurgence. PSU big. PSU: 38--MSU: 10
Hoying: The battle for the Land Grant Trophy is renewed, at the start of November rather than the end for some reason (see also early November Bedlam above). Michigan State's zombie-like shambling was good enough for the likes of incompetent teams like Michigan and Minnesota but could not withstand the withering triple overtime assault of the Northwestern Wildcats. The Buckeyes have shown that a team with offensive talent can move the ball on what seemed like an impenetrable Penn State front, but Sparty's been scoring about 21 points per game in B1G play, and that's including 14 points scored on the short field in OT last week. If the Nittany Lions come out frothing at the mouth (like their rabid mascot), they have a good shot to notch their third shutout of the season. MSU's stat correction stretch continues. PSU: 27--MSU: 3
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, this game shouldn't be close if Penn State is all they are supposed to be. Michigan State has has a lot of trouble running the ball and the Nittany Kitties are pretty ticked off after that JT Barrett throat punch. I don't see Barkley putting up over 100 yards but McSorely should do enough for the win here. PSU: 31--MSU: 10
Seeberg: Penn State is good and angry. Michigan State is...okay, though also likely angry after losing in triple OT to Northwestern. Advantage? Penn State. This one might get ugly. PSU: 38--MSU: 13
Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
Draper: Can the Wolfpack summon the power of the full moon once again to take down the Tigers in Raleigh? NC State has been a really fun team to watch all year with Ryan Finley at the helm and a very talented defensive line. The problem? The Clemson defensive line is simply nasty. Honestly, Clemson has probably the 2nd or 3rd most dominant roster in the NCAA right now in terms of athletes. Dabo also knows that the loss to Cuse closed the door on any room for error. This is a statement game for the Tigers to retake ownership of the ACC and I think they do it in a big way. Clem: 27 -- NCST: 13
Hoying: Getting blown out by Notre Dame is a disappointment for NC State, but all of their (realistic) goals are still in front of them. Beat Clemson and the Atlantic division is all but assured. The Wolfpack have popped onto the radar after wins over Florida State (bad) and Louisville (also bad) but are in terrible danger of being exposed if everything goes pear-shaped on them for the second week in a row. Clemson hasn't exactly been humming along but their defense has been superb. The most points they've allowed all season is 27 (when they lost their starting QB and only scored 24 themselves). Before the season, this might have looked like a trap game before the Tigers host Florida State next week, but somehow I don't see Clemson being caught looking ahead right now. Clem: 27--NCSU: 16
Schweinfurth: Clemson's only loss came to Syracuse, on the road, on a Thursday night, when their starting QB got hurt. All of those circumstances add up to an upset loss. That's not going to happen here. These are two great defenses, but Clemson has the better athletes. This game should be close all the way. Watch if you like low scoring games. Clem: 17--NCSU: 13
Seeberg: Clemson still has everything in front of them after seemingly falling off the radar by losing to Syracuse of all teams. NC State won't catch them off guard this season like last year, where the Wolfpack would have beaten the Tigers if they had possessed even a borderline competent kicker. Sorry to all my friends in Raleigh. Clem: 34--NCSU: 17
Stanford Cardinal @ Washington State Cougars
Draper: Stanford looked like a complete shell of themselves vs the might of Oregon State. Bryce Love didn't suit up for that game which shows me that the Cardinal are a one man team. Can the evil genius Mike Leach crack the code and hold Bryce Love to fewer than 10 yards per carry? Look at the Cougars schedule and you'll see that the 2 oops games happened on the road. I'm gonna roll with my guy in Pullman and expect some evil pirate magic. Maybe the Cougars will play Stanford football and pull this one out! Stan: 28--WSU: 31
Hoying: One team likes to run. One team likes to throw, and can't stop the run. I think we saw this movie last week, and I think it ended with Arizona QB Khalil Tate running wild and the Cats running up the score on the Cougars. It was fun to imagine Washington State as a contender for...something...for a while, but they're safely fading back into obscurity, and a healthy dose of Bryce Love looking for Heisman campaign redemption should speed them on their journey. Or Love won't play and Stanford will get stomped. Whatever. Stan: 38--WSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Washington State has followed the Mike Leach blueprint to a T this year. Win early games by a lot and draw all the voters in...and then bomb out. Look, Leach is a great offensive mind and his Air Raid system is hard to stop...unless your QB throws 5 picks. Yea, that happened. I don't see Stanford pulling a Cal and embarrassing the Cougs, but turnovers kill here. Stan: 30--WSU: 17
Seeberg: Let's see what we have here. Crazy Mike Leach-led club in full freefall mode? Check. Leading Heisman candidate, Stanford's Bryce Love, back? Well, we don't know, as he is a game-time decision. Stanford struggled mightily with Pac-12 bottom-feeder Oregon State in his absence, but my guess is a team led by Bryce Love at about 85% is still good enough to beat the pretender Cougars. Stan: 24--WSU: 16
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: This reeks of Coach O return to Earth. LSU reached a new low losing to Troy at home on homecoming, then rebounded nicely to beat Auburn and Florida. But then we have Bama and Nick Saban. There is a major talent disparity between these teams (unlike the more level playing field under much of the Miles era. Bama is going to play a little angry after being demoted (justifiably) to the 2 line in the CFP rankings. I have a feeling Saban and the Tide will remind the committee (and LSU) where the real power in the SEC resides. Another day at the office against an overrated LSU squad. LSU: 10--Bama: 27
Hoying: Back in the late aughts, this game used to have bilateral BCS championship hunt ramifications. Now it just provides an annual illusory opportunity for LSU to score a big win and jump back into relevance, an opportunity they invariably squander. Alabama has won six straight in this series, though only 2 in blowout fashion. LSU's done a nice job of lucking into wins over juggernauts like...Florida...and losing to Sun Belt teams, while Alabama has been blowing out (bad) team after (bad) team. The best team the Tide have faced, Texas A&M, managed to hang within one possession of Alabama, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that a slightly more talented team could spring the upset. Even FSU was only down 10-7 before their season blew out its knee in the third quarter. I just don't think Coach O and friends have their act together quite tightly enough to make it happen. LSU: 14--Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: It looks like everyone has forgotten how bad LSU was at the start of the year. I mean they were talking of firing Coach O after like 4 games. The SEC has two good teams and a lot of overrated teams. Bama falls in the former category. LSU: 10--Bama: 31
Seeberg: I know, I know, this is a "big" game. Except I literally trust nobody in the SEC outside of 'Bama and Georgia. If the Tide lose a game to a team that lost to Troy (and lost nearly a $1 mil game check in the process) the transitive property of college football- and the imperialism map- will look flat-out insane. No chance that happens. LSU: 17--Bama: 35
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I'm trying to figure out if this game has mattered since there was a Vick under center for VT (Michael or Marcus). Miami has been leading a charmed life this season but the only team with a modicum of talent they've faced was FSU and they had the game lost until the Noles kindly handed them the win. I don't know much about VT but they've had a more taxing schedule. Yeah, Clemson took their toll, but wins over West Virginia and BC (yes, that BC) are better than the Canes have on the resume this year. Home game for the Canes, but no one cares. Virginia Tech pulls off a big win in Little Havana. VT: 20 -- Miami: 17
Hoying: Is it time for the Big East championship already? Will any of our readers get that dated reference? Anyway, this game is meaningful for both teams in the first time in forever. The last time Miami was in a title chase in November they got utterly pantsed by Famous Jameis and co. Can we look forward to a similar exposure here? All signs point to yes, except that Miami keeps finding ways to pull out absurd endings. Teams like this are itching to get tagged, unless they don't. I have a feeling the losses may start coming in bunches, but I'm going to hold off until the Hurricanes' water breaks. VT: 15--Miami: 16
Schweinfurth: Miami is severely inflated this year. TWO last second wins already. Does anyone remember those Mark Richt coached Georgia teams? They were always good and then choked in big games. Virginia Tech is no slouch and I believe this will be relatively low scoring. Bud Foster's D shows up big and makes a play to win it, probably a pick of a lob to the sideline. VT: 21--Miami: 17
Seeberg: Miami just keeps finding ways to win, which is both a positive and a negative. Beating UNC- you know, that 1-8 powerhouse- by a whopping 5 points is sad...and Virginia Tech beat them by 52. I was surprised how low the Hokies were in the initial playoff rankings, but it's clear the committee valued resume over the eye test. Va Tech hasn't beaten anybody, but that'll change by the end of this weekend. Hokies big. VT: 38--Miami: 17
Arizona Wildcats @ USC Trojans
Draper: Rich Rod? Good? I don't know about that, but Khalil Tate is just chewing up opposing defenses like crazy. They just took down the Cougs in impressive fashion, but that puts them on the radar of 'teams to not take for granted'. The Trojans have been the second most disappointing team this year, but the athletes in LA are a different class than those in Tuscon. USC may have pooped the bed in their two losses to Notre Dame and Washington State, but the Irish have shown to be more than a mirage, and the Cougs, well they aren't terrible. USC isn't setting the world on fire, but I think they'll be able to put the Cats in their place. Another year, another non-Arizona Rose Bowl. USC: 38 -- Zona: 27
Hoying: Just when it seemed like Rich Rod was going to be fired (again), the Zone-a read has been reperfected behind the steady arm and crazy legs of Heisman dark horse Khalil Tate. Not since the days of Pat White and Steve Slaton (or maybe JT and Zeke) have D-ends across America been so confused. Play to your strengths, I suppose, which means USC is pretty much screwed after going all-in on turnover machine Sam Darnold. As for defense, the last great rushing team the Trojans faced was...Notre Dame??? Gulp. USC: 38--Zona: 45
Schweinfurth: I have no faith in Sam Darnold. Seriously, go back and look at my previous posts. The dude is a turnover machine. Not good when you are on the road against a dominant run team. Khalil Tate has turned the Wildcats around this year (and probably saved Rich Rod's job). I look for Darnold to throw at least 1 pick and maybe even a pick 6. USC goes down again. USC: 38--Zona: 42
Seeberg: Hmm, a Rich Rod-led squad against the Trojans. Man this feels like ND vs. UM where I just wish everybody could lose. The Wildcats' "signature" win was a stomping of Washington State last week while USC manhandled Stanford earlier this year. I just don't trust Sam Darnold as much as I did at the start of the year, but I trust Zona's D even less. First to 50 might win, but I'll curb those expectations just slightly. USC: 49--Zona: 38
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: Iowa wants this game played in the teens but do they have the horses to slow down the Buckeye offense. JT and Company have seemed to figure some things out vs. the Lions and I expect them to continue to improve. The road environment in Kinnick isn't a day at the park, but the 3:30 kickoff is a God-send. Weird things happen in Iowa City after dark (ask PSU this year--almost-- and Michigan last year. The Buckeye defensive line should hold Akrum Wadley in check. So long as the offense can crack 20, I feel pretty good (even with the hot mess of the kickoff unit). How will JT handle the acclaim (he's used to everyone saying he sucks)? I expect 250 through the air, 100 on the ground from Dobbins, 75 from Barrett, and 50 from Weber with at least 4 sacks from the rushmen. The Hawkeyes have a decent defense, but the Buckeye offense is simply too much. Iowa "waves" goodbye to their chance at a huge win and Ferentz inks another 5 year deal after the keeping the game withing 30. OSU: 38 -- Iowa: 10
Hoying: Well, we've now seen the Buckeyes slice and dice one of the B1G's elite offenses, hanging 39 on Penn State. Unfortunately, they have to do it again. Iowa has given up more than 20 points exactly once in conference play, to Penn State. Granted, the other offenses the Iowa has faced are such firecrackers as Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota...this week will be a bit of a stiffer challenge. On the other side of the ball, Iowa features a tiny running back and an immobile pocket passer. The D Line is going to feast. Ohio State is hitting its groove, but let's not forget 2014, when JT etc. conquered Michigan State and then underwhelmed a bit for the rest of November. As long as the Buckeyes don't win the coin toss and defer, they should be OK in this one. OSU: 31--Iowa: 10
Schweinfurth: Let's go back to the Penn State game for Iowa. They played an elite defense and looked miserable. They really didn't move the ball much outside of a few desperation drives. And now, here waltzes in one of, if not the best, defensive line in the nation. That big, fast, and on a mission to destroy stationary QBs. Oh hi Nathan Stanley. Please put on this extra padding because you will probably get mauled. Let me air this as well. Everyone wants to complain about the quick screens and outs to the sidelines from the OSU offense. Two of those 4th quarter TDs DON'T happen if OSU doesn't show that early. Go watch the safeties and linebackers bite on those two plays. It's a total set up. Yes, you will see more of those passes, but they will be accompanied by some shots down the middle of the field. Johnnie Dixon will have another feast if all works out. This game isn't at night, which helps, but Iowa is still a tough place to play. This game isn't flashy, but it's a win. OSU: 38--Iowa: 10
Seeberg: The scheduling gods may have actually done the Buckeyes a solid here, making this a 3:30 game instead of a night contest. Maybe Urban's complaining helped? In any event, Ohio State beat three opponents last Saturday (Penn State, Ohio State's kickoff team, and the refs), so just one team should be pretty easy, right? Not so fast. Iowa plays some seriously boring, ball control offense, and even the most prepared/well-coached squad imaginable is likely to let down at least somewhat after that massive victory. I expect the Bucks to start slow- though not in such a disastrous fashion as against the Nits- before asserting themselves from mid-2nd quarter on. Expect a workman, Wisconsin-like win. Let the RBs eat please! OSU: 35--Iowa: 13
Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Wisconsin
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Wake Forest over Notre Dame
Seeberg: Texas over TCU
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