Week 5: Come to Penn Staaaate!

Standings:
1.) Draper 10-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Hoying 10-5 (1-3 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 9-6 (2-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 8-7 (1-3 upset)

That Team Up North may still, as always, be Ohio State's one true rival, but that team out east (no, not you Rutgers) has been the Bucks' best matchup over the last two seasons. Now the non-rivalry is renewed, and this time with no stupid alternate uniforms (although I'm not sure that's a good thing: Ohio State is 4-0 against Penn State over the last 5 seasons when wearing stupid alternates, and 0-1 when not).

#12 West Virginia Mountaineers @ #25 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Draper: Will Grier is the Heisman flavor of the month not named Tu'a or Dwayne (honestly, it's the distant 3rd but you know...).  I expect this to be another shootout as we're accustomed to with the Big 12 standards.  Dana Holgorson should be able to keep the scoreboard ticking up in quick fashion while Kliff "Gosling" Kingsberry finally has a little spark of life in Lubbock.  Lean on the Neers at this point because the Red Raiders are more likely the bigger mirage.  WVU will crash and burn soon enough, but Tech is flying a bit too close to the sun.  WVU: 48 -- TT: 28
Hoying: Ah, classic Big 12, getting it done on...defense? Yes, the #1 scoring defense in the country can be found in Morgantown, WV after the 'Neers shut down Kansas State, Youngstown State, and Tennessee. And one week after surrendering 49 points to the Houston Cougars, Tech went into Stillwater and stonewalled the Cowboys, holding them to 17 points and zero (!) in the second half. Of course, they had the luxury of facing first-year starter Taylor Cornelius instead of OkSU institution Mason Rudolph, but now Will Grier is coming to town with a bit more formidable attack. Should we expect the dams to burst this Saturday? One would hope so; Tech is putting up over 50 a game and Grier is aspiring to Haskins-esque QB play. But Ole Miss was able to slow down the Red Raiders a bit in week 1 and WVU will do it again. WVU: 41--TT: 34
Schweinfurth: The Red Raiders have taken residence in their normal 20-25 ranking range. Unfortunately, I have not had enough time to watch the Big 12 outside of the TCU game. I do know that WVU has looked like a legitimate Big 12 championship contender (and the WVU/OU game will be fun). Will Grier is tearing it up and I just don't think Texas Tech has the defense to slow him down. WVU: 45--TT: 28
Seeberg:  Ah yes, Texas Tech has entered the rankings after beating Oklahoma State on the road.  A solid win to be sure, but now they face what is essentially OkSt version 2.0 in West Virginia.  Will Grier and Co. are lighting it up as usual, and one week of solid defense per season is typically all any Big 12 squad can muster.  Back to Earth, Red Raiders.  WVU: 42-- TTU: 27

#7 Stanford Cardinal @ #8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Stanford won a game they had no business winning with super boring football that lulled the opponent to sleep? You don't say! It's almost like we've seen this story before.  Now, is Notre Dame for real? I'm honestly not sure.  They beat Michigan which is a nice win, but not spectacular and looked pedestrian in their other games.  I'd like to go for boring David Shaw but this is exactly the game that Stanford loses that kicks them out of the national spotlight.  Actually, it seems that whenever ND or Stanford get some steam, this is the game that crushes them.  Notre Dame has plenty of time to face plant, but Stanford and the weak Pac 12 offers fewer opportunities.  The Irish are BACK (for another week) while the Cardinal spends the next 7 games whining that they deserve a chance.  Stan: 17--ND: 27
Hoying: I told you the Cardinal would win last week. Never a doubt (at least once they got back to playing Stanford football). Now they're tasked with stopping the new-look Irish O featuring Ian Book (5 yards) behind center. Lost in Book's coming out party was the fact that ND gave up 27 to Wake Forest, a team that scored all of 23 against Tulane a few weeks ago. Not that the Stanford offense poses much a threat; the run game has gone bye-bye even with Heisman once-hopeful Bryce Love leading the fold. The safe pick would be Notre Dame but I have an odd feeling that they're due for a clunker. Stan: 24 -- ND: 21
Schweinfurth: I went to bed last Saturday and Oregon was handling Stanford. That was apparently a mistake. That was a great comeback by a very good football team. The question I have, how much did that comeback take out of the Cardinal. That was an emotional conference game. This game, while it has emotion, means more for Notre Dame than the Cardinal. A loss here by the Irish and you can kiss any talk of the playoffs good bye. (Want a better chance? Join a freaking conference!) I wish this game was earlier so I could watch. Until Brian Kelly proves he can win a game like this, I'll take the other team. Stan: 28--ND: 24
Seeberg:  Another week, another "I have no clue what to make of this Pac-12 team" game.  Stanford was dead to rights against Oregon before the Ducks shrank on the national stage- again- like a wool sweater in the dryer.  Notre Dame, like Stanford, has a formidable D, but the Ducks shredded that D for nearly three quarters.  Suddenly, the golden domers might be able to score it as well, benching Wimbush in favor of Ian Book, who posted a tidy 325 passing yards in hanging more than half a hundred on a reasonably competent Wake Forest defense.  That plus home field advantage is enough for me to believe the Irish will keep on pretending to be a CFP contender.  Stan: 20--ND: 28

#20 Brigham Young Cougars @ #11 Washington Huskies
Draper: It was fun watching BYU beat Wisconsin....really fun.  But Washington has an actual semblance of an offense.  I think both teams will score, but Washington is simply the better team.  Browning is a head case, but I expect him to perform at home.  The Cougs weren't fazed in Madison, but the lack of a consistent Badger passing game was a huge boon.  Washington has better athletes to pull away late.  BYU: 24 -- UW: 38
Hoying: After scraping by Arizona in week 1 and being edged by California in week 2, BYU's conference tour continues in Seattle. I don't really think BYU is any good; their reputation is entirely founded on catching a super-overrated Wisconsin team napping. Yes, yes, I know there's another overrated UW team right in front of them, but the Huskies won't be fooled. BYU: 17 -- UW: 31
Schweinfurth: Which one of these teams is for real? BYU is still riding high after out muscling Wisconsin. Washington looked pretty good against what appears to be a decent Auburn team. Jake Browning has more experience in big games like this so I'll take the Huskies. BYU: 27--UW: 35
Seeberg:  BYU is ranked.  This is fool's gold kids.  Hornibrook always plays like hot garbage against one inferior opponent each year, and this time it bit the Badgers where it hurts.  The Huskies are still the Pac-12's best chance at a CFP berth, and they won't get caught napping after the Cougars' win last week.  U-Dub big.  BYU: 17--UW: 38

#19 Oregon Ducks @ #24 California Golden Bears
Draper: I saw a little of Oregon last week and they looked pretty solid...until they crapped themselves.  I haven't seen Cal but QB-U (2 NFL starters!) has been putting points on the board.  I think points will be had in spades here, but the Ducks are more talented.  Quack.  Ore: 48 -- Cal: 38
Hoying: OK, sometimes you get a bad beat. Sometimes you kick a pylon and then stretch for a yard you don't really need, and everyone inexplicably second-guesses your decision not to take a knee when you can't really run out the clock yet. It doesn't make you a bad team. Is Cal a bad team? I don't know; as stated above, they did beat BYU. And they even have a win over a Power 5 team: North Carolina! The Tar Heels looked pretty good this week, right? The Ducks are away from home for this one, but the home fans don't really pack the house in the Bay area. As long as Oregon doesn't let the Stanford bungling beat them two weeks in a row, they should be fine. Ore: 45--Cal: 27
Schweinfurth: Oregon had a rough week last week. I don't see this offense going dormant for the second half again like last week. They are just too talented. I haven't watched any of Cal this year, but from what I understand, this game should be a shootout. Ore: 45--Cal: 38
Seeberg:  Ah yes, Oregon, take two.  After botching their chance to re-enter national legitimacy last week, they're likely to stomp whomever they play next.  Those highlighter jersey combos have to stay in the national discussion somehow.  Ore: 45--Cal: 31

#4 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ #9 Pennsylvania State University Nittany Lions
Draper: Take the over...of course when you think that, it usually means the opposite but here we are!  Another game in which points will be scored in droves, not necessarily due to bad defense but moreso because of good offense.  Last week was very odd as PSU almost pooped the bed against Illinois before an explosion of points occurred in the 4th.  I don't read too much into that (on either side) except that OSU will be able to put up points and yards in this one.  It comes down to the Buckeyes ability to stop the run up the middle (poor thus far) and get to McSorley before he chucked the 500 balls deep.  The loss of Bosa looms large, but it's not as bad as everyone thinks.  Cooper and Young are both fantastic edge rushers and Jones wreaks havoc at tackle.  Unfortunately, they need support from the linebackers to stop the run in this game.  I have no true worries concerning Haskins and the Buckeye offense.  Yeah, this is Haskins first true road start but he got some great experience in Ann Arbor last year that will serve him well.  Hope that Weber is at full speed to continue the 2-headed RB approach.  No doubt in my mind that OSU is the better team.  Can they escape Happy Valley with a win? I think it will be (surprisingly) comfortable.  OSU: 52 -- PSU: 38
Hoying: Remember the 90's? When it seemed like the home team won this game every year (unless you're taking Bobby Hoying and Eddie George on the road in 1995)? Happy Valley hasn't been quite as intimidating lately. Yes, there was the block heard round the world in 2016 announcing Penn State's return to relevance, and yes, the 2014 game went to double OT, but one has to look back all the way to 2005 to find Ohio State's last loss in State College before 2016. And 2016 was a total fluke: Penn State got a few touchdowns on some deep jump balls but McSorley had an awful day and the PSU offense struggled in general to get anything going. Lost in last year's thrilling comeback was the dirty secret that the Lions couldn't really move the ball in Columbus, either, relying once again on jump balls that could have just as easily been ruled interceptions (and some early literal and figurative fumbles by the Gray and Gray). I'm looking for reasons not to pick the Bucks in this one and I just don't see them. The LB play has continued to be poor but I don't put any greater faith in the Penn State D. Haskins isn't going to be a deer in the headlights after staying frosty up in last year's comeback in Ann Arbor. Even if Weber is tweaked, Dobbins has been fine and will run wild if the Nits key on Dwayne. Stupid fluky crap is always a possibility, but the odds say go with the road team. OSU: 31 -- PSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Win special teams. Please. If there is a punt or FG block, it needs to happen by the Buckeyes. If there is a kick returned for a TD, it needs to happen by a Buckeye. Don't believe me? Look at the last two years. I put myself through the misery of watching the 2016 game. Ohio State DOMINATED that game until the Lions blocked a punt. With that said, this Buckeye team is much more talented than that 2016 team. This Penn State team is not. Everyone is making a big deal about Penn State's explosive offense. Please take into account that these numbers have come against App St., Pitt, Kent St. and Illinois. Those are some juggernaut defenses there. Yes, Ohio State's numbers came against Oregon St., Buttgers, Tulane, oh and a very good TCU team. Here's the thing, McSorely's deep ball is very interceptable and Ohio State actually has guys that can run with the Lion's receivers. Ohio State's D-Line is the best Penn St. will see all year and I'm still not sold on their offensive line. Beaver Stadium is one of the most intimidating atmospheres I have ever witnessed and that impact is real. Add to the fact that weird things always happen in this game. I think this one goes similar to the TCU game where Penn St. keeps it close for 3 quarters, but Dobbins and Weber are going to grind that defense into a fine white powder. OSU: 42--PSU: 31
Seeberg:  Every time I think about this game, a new angle tries to coerce me into picking a different team.  "The Buckeyes can't really stop anybody"  "Yeah but neither can Penn State!"  "Our rushing attack has dwindled significantly in recent weeks"  "Yeah but Penn State can barely kick a field goal".  Here's a terrifying stat:  Ohio State's starting linebackers made EXACTLY ZERO TACKLES last week.  That should be literally impossible.  I also find it amusing that, in the breakdown of this game, the local paper gave the QB edge to Penn State, not the team with a QB who is currently the second betting favorite to win the Heisman.  If Haskins plays as well as he did against TCU- and there's no reason to think he won't, considering TCU's defense is better- we should score enough points to put this one to bed when combined with turnover-prone McSorley.  IF McSorley keeps the ball in the navy and white's hands, we may be in trouble, but I just don't see it.  Bucks get a solid statement win in not-so-happy valley.  OSU: 38--PSU: 28

Upset Special
Draper: Kansas State over Texas
Hoying: Ole Miss over LSU
Schweinfurth: Syracuse over Clemson
Seeberg:  Pitt over UCF