Standings:
1.) Seeberg 30-9 (3-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 29-10 (4-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 29-10 (3-7 upset)
4.) Draper 28-11 (4-6 upset)
After 3 long years of waiting, the Buckeyes are finally aboard the revenge train. Fun fact: the Buckeyes haven't lost back-to-back games to a Big Ten opponent since...(Michigan State? no. Penn State? uh-uh. Michigan? lol.) Wisconsin, in 2003 and 2004. Here's to keeping a streak alive.
Also, every other power conference gets a ranked matchup this week, too! Except the Pac-12, because, well, you know.
Draper: This has all the makings of a...pretty good game. I have been saying all year that I believe the other top B1G teams are mirages and this is the second test for both. Penn State came out much stronger than I thought against the Buckeyes (credit to them) and I think they'll be flying around here. Michigan finally got caught by Sparty but responded nicely against IU. The big question is: can the Wolverines respond in a MUCH tougher environment than they faced in East Lansing? Clifford seems to be back to normal, which makes this Lion offense look much different than it did in the losses to Iowa and Illinois. Cade McNamara is nothing special so it comes down to strength on strength in the Wolverine rushing attack vs. the PSU defense. If the Lions ball out like they did against the Buckeyes (no reason to think they won't at home), I think the home field advantage carries the day...just barely. I probably should pick Michigan since my picks have been SO bad lately, but I'll go with the Lions. UM: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: This isn't a ranked matchup because somehow Wisconsin and Auburn are ranked, but Penn State, who beat both of them, is not. The good news is if the Lions can pull off the home win, they'll definitely be in the rankings next week. The better news is that one of these teams will have to lose, because I hate them both. Who has the edge this time? Do you remember Ohio State trying to run the ball on Penn State? Guess who is much more reliant on the run than Ohio State is? I'm not saying that Michigan is more potent in the run game than Ohio State (this week will tell us a lot about whether that's the case), but they're in a great deal more trouble if the run game doesn't work. Cade McNamara isn't going to catch fire unless he's playing a bad secondary (see my writeup for the Ohio State game below for who that team could be) and Penn State doesn't fit that profile. Michigan is also developing problem finishing in the red zone, which doomed them against Michigan State's pedestrian defense. Uh-oh. Penn State isn't exactly setting the world on fire on offense, either, but unfortunately for UM, Sean Clifford appears to finally be back to 100%, which should give Penn State the slight (slight) edge at QB to go with their edge at WR with Jahan Dotson. Just enough to eke out a win in front of the home crowd. UM: 20--PSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oh look, Harbaugh is taking is circus on the road again. Nothing bad could possibly happen against a team with a decent QB and an elite receiver...right. From what I can tell, Penn State has a very good defense, but so does Michigan. Michigan can run the ball, but Penn State can't. It may not matter though. I can totally see Penn State bottling up the Wolverine running tandem. They did a pretty good job against the Buckeye backfield.This should come down to QB play as I said earlier. Who do you trust more, Clifford or McNamera? I'm going with Clifford because he isn't a statue and he had Dotson on the outside. Add in the Penn State crowd, yea it's a no doubter. UM: 17--PSU: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, TTUN vs. PSU where we separate the pretenders from the...slightly more competent pretenders?? Technically our neighbors to the north still have everything to play for, not the case for our eastern-border friends. The Wolverines suddenly had a passing attack against Little Brother and still managed to choke away a 16-point lead. I would imagine MSU and PSU have comparable defenses, but Penn State's secondary is superior which should make UM one-dimensional- in the dimension they typically prefer. I trust neither QB, but I thought UM was the better squad. One bad quarter on the road in a rivalry game shouldn't define their season, so Harbaugh gets them back on track with a late W (after a final pick of Clifford, of course). UM: 24--PSU: 20
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Can Caleb WIlliams be stopped by someone OTHER than Kansas (kinda)? Baylor has quietly put together a nice season while the Sooners seem to be dodging bullets in every game this year. Will a team in the 'vaunted' Big 12 be able to challenge the big dog? I know Williams has been great, but I have to imagine that there will be some chink in the armor that eventually appears. What better way for this to happen than having lowly Baylor sneaking around the chicken coup in Waco to remove one of the few remaining impediments to a playoff without controversy (right?). Let's go with the Bears snakebiting the Sooners. You can only play with fire so often. OU: 38--Bay: 41
Hoying: Play time is over, Star Fox. After letting (7-loss) Nebraska and (5-loss) Texas hang around until the end of the game, OU has managed to find a couple of blowouts along their way to a healthy 9-0 start. But now they face the mother of all backloaded schedules, as the Big 12's #2, #3, and #4 teams are next on the slate. The good news is that the Sooners don't usually lose to any of these teams, least of all Baylor, whom the Sooners have beaten 7 times in a row, including twice in 2019 alone. This game should go a long way toward telling us whether Oklahoma has been a total sham this whole time (you'd think the Texas game would be a strong data point in the affirmative, but Caleb Williams did only play a little more than a half that day). The Sooners boast one of the top rush defenses in the country, which is bad news for a Baylor attack almost as dependent on the run as Michigan is. I don't think OU gets to 12-0, but I don't think this is the week that trips them up. Sooners stay undefeated...for now. OU: 35--Bay: 28
Schweinfurth: The Sooners look like they are waking up from their Spencer Rattler induced slumber. Are these last few blowouts a product of the opponent or actually waking up? I guess we find out soon. Baylor has mostly flown under the radar, but really I just trust the Sooners more. OU: 42--Bay: 38
Draper: Can Caleb WIlliams be stopped by someone OTHER than Kansas (kinda)? Baylor has quietly put together a nice season while the Sooners seem to be dodging bullets in every game this year. Will a team in the 'vaunted' Big 12 be able to challenge the big dog? I know Williams has been great, but I have to imagine that there will be some chink in the armor that eventually appears. What better way for this to happen than having lowly Baylor sneaking around the chicken coup in Waco to remove one of the few remaining impediments to a playoff without controversy (right?). Let's go with the Bears snakebiting the Sooners. You can only play with fire so often. OU: 38--Bay: 41
Hoying: Play time is over, Star Fox. After letting (7-loss) Nebraska and (5-loss) Texas hang around until the end of the game, OU has managed to find a couple of blowouts along their way to a healthy 9-0 start. But now they face the mother of all backloaded schedules, as the Big 12's #2, #3, and #4 teams are next on the slate. The good news is that the Sooners don't usually lose to any of these teams, least of all Baylor, whom the Sooners have beaten 7 times in a row, including twice in 2019 alone. This game should go a long way toward telling us whether Oklahoma has been a total sham this whole time (you'd think the Texas game would be a strong data point in the affirmative, but Caleb Williams did only play a little more than a half that day). The Sooners boast one of the top rush defenses in the country, which is bad news for a Baylor attack almost as dependent on the run as Michigan is. I don't think OU gets to 12-0, but I don't think this is the week that trips them up. Sooners stay undefeated...for now. OU: 35--Bay: 28
Schweinfurth: The Sooners look like they are waking up from their Spencer Rattler induced slumber. Are these last few blowouts a product of the opponent or actually waking up? I guess we find out soon. Baylor has mostly flown under the radar, but really I just trust the Sooners more. OU: 42--Bay: 38
Seeberg: Not exactly the marquee Oklahoma versus a Texas school matchup we thought we'd get, but here we are. OU can actually play a bit of defense this season, which has at times bailed out their uncharacteristically sputtering offense. As lousy as that conference is they should still make the title game unblemished based solely on talent disparity. Bears keep it close, Sooners show up just soon enough. OU: 38--Bay: 28
Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: Another SEC also-ran game. A&M has played fairly well since the huge win over Bama and no reason to think that changes this week. The Aggies have been extremely impressive on defense, but the Lane Train might be able to throw in a wrench in the Grove. Honestly, I don't think the Rebels have enough firepower to out scheme the more talented Aggies. I could see Jimbo pooping this away and blaming his players, but I doubt it. TAMU: 31--Miss: 17
Hoying: Why does it feel like we're picking the same game every week? Some combination of Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas...I guess that's what happens when you have that many good teams in the same division. If this were Roll Tide! blog instead of Let's Go Bucks! we'd probably be confused about all the Ohio State-Penn State-Michigan-Michigan State games instead. Anyway, Texas A&M's defense continues to be so hot right now, while Ole Miss's defense is more...derelicte. We all saw what BoNix did to the Rebels a couple of weeks ago; he just put up less than 4 yards per attempt against the Aggies D. Let's not forget that this was the team that rolled the Tide, no popcorn necessary. Vegas says this game will be close, but I don't see it. TAMU: 34--Miss: 20
Schweinfurth: Texas A&M has been playing much better since the Alabama upset. It's amazing what a little confidence will do for you. Ole' Miss has just kinda been hanging out and not doing too much. I don't trust either of these two teams, but I'll take A&M. TAMU: 28--Miss: 24
Seeberg: This game looked a lot more intriguing with a fully healthy Matt Corral at QB for the Rebs. He's gutting it out on game days but rarely (if ever) practicing. Precision passing without reps is just too tough against a reasonable defense, which the Aggies possess. TAMU gets a decent road win to complement the Bama W. TAMU: 31--Miss: 24
North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Draper: Can Wake rebound from the loss of the perfect dream season? I don't think anyone saw the Demon Deacons spoiling the CFP party, but they can still win the ACC and dethrone the Tigers. NC State is usually good for an upset here or there (see Clemson), but they don't have the consistency. Wake is pretty consistent, but their defense has been awful of late. Can they outscore the Pack? My time at FSU taught me one thing about playing Wake....their field is terrible and always caused a plethora of injuries. Let's see if it claims another foe when the team has a pulse. NCSt: 31 -- Wake: 35
Hoying: Do you want to see a year without a Clemson ACC Championship as much as I do? The winner of this game is likely your only hope. NC State has the inside track due to offing the Tigers already, but due to a quirk of scheduling, Wake Forest's loss last week to North Carolina doesn't count against its conference record. As for this matchup, this is a classic clash of opposing styles. Wake Forest's high-flying offense is putting up over 44 points a game (notably, they scored 55 in their only loss), while NC State is allowing only 16 points per game, even better than the BRETT VENABLES Clemson Tiger defense. Time to pull my standard I-don't-know copout and choose the home team. You don't just walk into...Truist Field (not the baseball stadium). NCSt: 35--Wake: 38
Schweinfurth: I have watched exactly 0 minutes of either of these teams. Wake scores points in bunches. NC State is okay I guess. I really have no clue. I'll take Wake, I guess. I don't know. NCSt: 24--Wake: 42
Seeberg: Fun fact: I lived in Greensboro, NC for 6 years and have visited the "meh" Wake Forest stadium. Never thought "exciting football!" would go in the same sentence but lo and behold the Deacs can score and score a ton. Lots of Wolfpack fans in the area and Wake is a small school so I don't expect much of a home field advantage, but I do expect them to outscore the Pack regardless. NCSt: 31--Wake: 41
Purdue Boilermakers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: This Buckeye team has started playing on the edge again. PSU and Nebraska are pretty good teams (regardless of the Huskers record, the 9 point victory for the Buckeyes was Nebraska's biggest margin of defeat on the season...including MSU, UM, and OU), but this O-line has to figure out the run game. Henderson is too good to be running into defenders at every turn. Purdue has a pretty solid defense that could cause some problems. The 4 tackle approach at O-line has helped the pass blocking but the run blocking simply needs to improve. CJ and his receivers will be fine (should be nice to get Wilson back this week), but I really would like to see some open lanes for Henderson to get to the 2nd level. One thing that hasn't been mentioned enough is the incredible performance of the defense of late. Last week, they had 2 meltdowns....2. Yes, they were really big meltdowns, but when this defense can minimize the explosives, they've been more or less shutting down the opposition. My goals for this game (other than a win) is 1 or fewer explosive plays given up, 125 on the ground, and >2 explosives in the passing game. I think that's doable in the Shoe if all the weapons are back. Please, Buckeyes...let's have another one of those boring games by half. PU: 24--OSU: 41
Hoying: OK, I've learned my lesson from last week. I'm not going to have my picks live or die based on whether the team is one-dimensional or not. Purdue was even more pass-happy than usual last week and it didn't stop them from rolling right over Michigan State. Does that result strike fear into the heart of Buckeye Nation? Because it shouldn't. Michigan State has the worst, that's right, the WORST, #130, pass defense in the nation in terms of yards per game allowed. Yes, they lead a lot in their games and that can skew the results a bit, but even Ohio State is allowing almost 80 fewer yards per game through the air. With Purdue's nonexistent run game not keeping the Rushmen honest, expect to see the recently resurgent Ohio State pass rush tee off on poor Aidan O'Connell, leading to a lot of sacks and forced turnovers. The biggest surprise in this one could be Purdue's surprisingly effective defense, which ranks #15 in defending the pass and #26 overall. That's better than either Penn State or Nebraska, and you may have noticed that the Buckeye attack has been having some trouble finishing drives against each of those teams. Of course, Ohio State still won each of those games by multiple scores, so the Buckeyes should be able to win this week even if the offense continues to bring their C-game. I, for one, would prefer a good old fashioned Buckeye blowout, with the between-the-20's juggernaut offense from the last couple weeks mixed with the lack of penalties and missed run block assignments we saw during the glorious midseason. I'm not holding my breath, though (by which I mean I'm going to be holding my breath all game long) as Ohio State's red zone woes seem to be a trend rather than an aberration. At least the Buckeyes didn't suffer their last giant upset because they traded FG's for TD's all first half long. Who was the team they were playing that day...? Buckeyes in a nailbiter (until they fix the red zone issues). Pur: 20--OSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Phew, the annual B1G West team after the Penn State game is over and the Bucks survived. At least there isn't a giant killer on the schedule before 2 huge games...what what? There is? And it's Purdue with an elite wide receiver. Oh no. Michigan State and Michigan have the Buckeyes' full attention. That much is never in question, but Purdue...I have nightmares of Purdue. The Buckeye offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders right now and is doing enough to give everyone heartburn. Garrett Wilson should be back this week to give Stroud his safety blanket. The good news is that the Silver Bullets seem to be reemerging after a few year hiatus. This is a big test for Denzel Burke. David Bell is a beast and the Boilermaker passing game is going to stress this defense. I really don't think this game will be a cake walk for the simple fact that Purdue is better than everyone thinks. Let's see if Stroud and Co. can start executing in the Red Zone and on big 3rd downs. I shudder to think what will happen if these struggles continue. Bucks win, but closer than you think. Pur: 21--OSU: 31
Hoying: OK, I've learned my lesson from last week. I'm not going to have my picks live or die based on whether the team is one-dimensional or not. Purdue was even more pass-happy than usual last week and it didn't stop them from rolling right over Michigan State. Does that result strike fear into the heart of Buckeye Nation? Because it shouldn't. Michigan State has the worst, that's right, the WORST, #130, pass defense in the nation in terms of yards per game allowed. Yes, they lead a lot in their games and that can skew the results a bit, but even Ohio State is allowing almost 80 fewer yards per game through the air. With Purdue's nonexistent run game not keeping the Rushmen honest, expect to see the recently resurgent Ohio State pass rush tee off on poor Aidan O'Connell, leading to a lot of sacks and forced turnovers. The biggest surprise in this one could be Purdue's surprisingly effective defense, which ranks #15 in defending the pass and #26 overall. That's better than either Penn State or Nebraska, and you may have noticed that the Buckeye attack has been having some trouble finishing drives against each of those teams. Of course, Ohio State still won each of those games by multiple scores, so the Buckeyes should be able to win this week even if the offense continues to bring their C-game. I, for one, would prefer a good old fashioned Buckeye blowout, with the between-the-20's juggernaut offense from the last couple weeks mixed with the lack of penalties and missed run block assignments we saw during the glorious midseason. I'm not holding my breath, though (by which I mean I'm going to be holding my breath all game long) as Ohio State's red zone woes seem to be a trend rather than an aberration. At least the Buckeyes didn't suffer their last giant upset because they traded FG's for TD's all first half long. Who was the team they were playing that day...? Buckeyes in a nailbiter (until they fix the red zone issues). Pur: 20--OSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Phew, the annual B1G West team after the Penn State game is over and the Bucks survived. At least there isn't a giant killer on the schedule before 2 huge games...what what? There is? And it's Purdue with an elite wide receiver. Oh no. Michigan State and Michigan have the Buckeyes' full attention. That much is never in question, but Purdue...I have nightmares of Purdue. The Buckeye offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders right now and is doing enough to give everyone heartburn. Garrett Wilson should be back this week to give Stroud his safety blanket. The good news is that the Silver Bullets seem to be reemerging after a few year hiatus. This is a big test for Denzel Burke. David Bell is a beast and the Boilermaker passing game is going to stress this defense. I really don't think this game will be a cake walk for the simple fact that Purdue is better than everyone thinks. Let's see if Stroud and Co. can start executing in the Red Zone and on big 3rd downs. I shudder to think what will happen if these struggles continue. Bucks win, but closer than you think. Pur: 21--OSU: 31
Seeberg: Ok, there's NO WAY this can happen THREE times in a year...right? RIGHT?? Unfortunately, this iteration of the Boilermakers is actually *gasp* good. We all know they have an elite WR option, but they're also giving up fewer points and yards per game than the silver bullets *double gasp*. Fixing the red zone issues for the Bucks' O would all but guarantee a win, and not fixing them will all but lead to another "that didn't feel very good" win or potentially another L. At home, with their full attention on the ranked Boilers, I can't fathom a loss. I also will be in the stands on Saturday and I can't remember the last time I saw them lose at home twice in a season...but whenever it was (if it ever happened), it's not happening this week. Bucks don't cover (21? really Vegas?) but win nonetheless). Pur: 20--OSU: 34
Upset Special
Draper: Washington St. over Oregon
Hoying: Tennessee over Georgia (you heard it here first)
Schweinfurth: Maryland over MSU
Seeberg: Virginia over Notre Dame
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