Week 12: The Whole State: Part One

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 33-11 (3-8 upset)
2.) Draper 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 31-13 (3-8 upset)

The Buckeyes' severely backloaded schedule ramps up in earnest as they face the second of what will hopefully a stretch of six consecutive ranked opponents. Marquee games are rare across the landscape (in sharp contrast to last Saturday and next Saturday) but a couple of leading Playoff contenders are on serious upset alert.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Arkansas has been a fun story all year and at coming off a big OT win in the boot game.  Buuuut....Bama.  The Tide don't look phenomenal every week, but seem to win by a ton...every week (except UF and TAMU).  I think the Hogs make it interesting early as Alabama sleepwalks a bit early, but the passing game with Jameson Williams is too much.  Ark: 17--Bama: 34
Hoying: You can set your watch by the Tide this season. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout...well, that determines the outcome of this one. Stay tuned for a clunker against a BoNix-less Auburn next week I guess. Seriously, though, I don't see a way for the Razorbacks to gain an edge on Alabama. The Hogs lean heavily on their running game, and Alabama's D is sitting at a comfy #3 in the nation in rushing yards per attempt (right behind Georgia and Wisconsin). The Razor D is pretty meh, so expect Tide QB Bryce Young to keep pace with CJ Stroud this week in the Heisman race. Ark: 13--Bama: 37
Schweinfurth: I'm not gonna break this one down. Bama is still really good. Arkansas is not. Bama by a million. Ark: 10--Bama: 45

Seeberg: Hey, nice to see the Razorbacks still relevant this season. Feels like they've been lost in the SEC West shuffle lately. Unfortunately they will be permanently relegated to oblivious after a trip to Tuscaloosa. Nice to see a non-cupcake down south this week anyway. Ark: 17--Bama: 38

Oregon Ducks @ Utah Utes
Draper: This one is suuuuper interesting.  The Ducks started to look the part over the last few weeks, but Utah is sneaking around the chicken coop looking to poison the Pac 12's drinking water. This is almost guaranteed to be a preview of the Pac12 title game (rematches...<barf>), but having this one in Salt Lake makes for some Pac12 after dark (kinda) action.  This game gets weird in Utah.  Can Utah Swoop in to take away the CFP dollars? My signs point to yes.  Ore: 20--Utah: 21

Hoying: *Spider-Men pointing at each other.gif" Here we have Oregon going to visit what appears to be slightly-better-Oregon. Utah, like the Ducks, likes to run the ball, and doesn't pass so well (but a bit better than Oregon). Utah's schedule has been a bit tougher (other than the obvious) and they've navigated a couple of early stumbles to put together some solid performances recently. Oregon, likewise, seems to be hitting its stride after back-to-back awful performances against Stanford and Cal (incidentally, enjoy the Big Game this weekend). If this game were in Eugene, I'd probably roll with the Ducks, but Utah was able to handle Arizona State and UCLA at home relatively easily, and I expect their fortunes to continue this week. Ore: 24--Utah: 27
Schweinfurth: Look, Oregon is ripe to lose another game this year. That Verdell injury will have to come back to bite them at some point. I really just don't think it's this week. The Ducks still have Thibodeaux, and he is as close to a game wrecker as they come. I think Oregon squeaks this one out. Ore: 21--Utah: 17

Seeberg: Still laughing out of derision that the Ducks stay ahead of the scarlet and gray in the CFPoop rankings (while UM stays ahead of MSU *facepalm*). Regardless, Vegas knows the truth which is why the Ducks are 3-point dogs against a barely ranked Utah squad while OSU is nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against a top-10 opponent. Sadly, the Utes won't have enough juice to clear the Pac-12 leaders out of the way. Ducks: 31--Utes: 24

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: This looks to be what I thought the PSU game was going to be.  Penn State showed that the Illinois game was a blip on their defensive radar.  MSU's defense, however.....woof.  Sparty has a fantastic back in Kenneth Walker, but I just don't think he'll be able to carry the load against a stout Buckeye run defense (check the tape, since Oregon, they've only allowed 70 or so yards on the ground per game).   Payton Thorne has been able to hit some big time throws, but there aren't enough to match with Stroud.  They'll try to take the air out of the ball and shorten the game because every time the Buckeyes touch the ball, look to the end zone. The Buckeye offense has to be salivating to get into this matchup.  Purdue dropped to 49th overall in defense after getting shellacked by this OSU offense (I believe they were top 30 prior).  MSU on the other hand....111th overall.  Wilson was the guy last week, but I just don't see this offense being stopped.  With Wilson, Olave, Smith-Njigba, and Henderson to deal with (not to mention Williams, Ruckert, and a million other weapons), what is any defense (let alone a bad defense) to do? Stroud rips through the MSU defense and vaults to the clear leader in the Heisman rankings after another offensive clinic in a dominating win over a top 10 team.  MSU: 24--OSU: 56 

Hoying: What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense early in the...afternoon? Last week I dismissed any concerns regarding Purdue's offense, saying they only looked so good against Michigan State because the Spartan defense is nonexistent. After all, Purdue put up 40 against Sparty and then...put up 31...against Ohio State. Huh. OK, even if the Ohio State defense is on Michigan State's level, the offenses are not in the same ballpark. While it's true that the Buckeyes were gift-wrapped a couple of short fields to race out to an early lead last week, the offense still moved the ball at will all day, scoring touchdowns on their first 6 drives, committing zero turnovers and punting once! MSU's offense is not so efficient, essentially playing the game of their lives against Big Brother and white knuckling out lackluster wins against Nebraska and Indiana before getting badly exposed in West Lafayette. I'm going to knock a few points off the final margin because Ohio State has a nasty history of underperforming the week before The Game (see 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015 (ack), 2016, 2018), but that'll go more on the "defense misses a few tackles on Walker" rather than expecting Olave, Wilson, or Smith-Njigba to drop anything or Stroud to suddenly start missing his marks. Weather forecast? Mostly cloudy, with light winds, which means 100% chance of Buckeyes raining TDs. MSU: 31--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: Let's be honest, no one had Michigan State in the top 10 at all this year. Yet here we are with two weeks to play. This is a team that has put the dagger into many a season for the Ohio State faithful. The bright spot for the Buckeyes, the Spartans can get torched downfield. Oh look, here comes the best WR room in the country. Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba are going to feast this week. Defensively, just don't let Walker bust the big runs and keep everything in front of you. Can Sparty pull the upset? Yes. Will they? Probably not. Stroud for Heisman ratchets up a little more. MSU: 21--OSU: 49

Seeberg: Ah yes, the vaunted Spartans come to town, looking to ruin another Buckeye season (see: 2015, 1998). This iteration, however, has a large weakness that this OSU team is constructed to exploit: they cannot stop the pass. Even UM's laughable pass offense racked up nearly 400 yards through the air - mostly while building their 16-point lead, not coming from behind. Sparty's offense is led by a legitimate Heisman candidate and they do have some balance, but there's just no chance they can contain this Buckeye offense with any consistency. Last home game for me in person for awhile as we are expecting a new addition to the family by late February, so Go Bucks! MSU: 27--OSU: 48

Upset Special
Draper: SMU over UC
Hoying: Iowa State over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Wisconsin
Seeberg: Illinois over Iowa